The world is burning the most coal ever to keep the lights on
The world likely will generate more electricity from the dirtiest source this year than ever before, indicating just how far the energy transition still needs to run in the fight against climate change.
Coal-fueled generation is set to jump 9% from last year, according to an International Energy Agency report released Friday. That U-turn from the declines of the previous two years threatens the world's trajectory to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the organization said.
The U.S. and European Union had the biggest increases in coal use at about 20% each, followed by India at 12% and China—the world's largest consumer—at 9%, the IEA estimated. The comeback is being driven by economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, which is outpacing the ability of low-carbon energy sources to maintain supply.
"Coal is the single largest source of global carbon emissions, and this year's historically high level of coal power generation is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline toward net zero," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
Record natural gas prices have increased reliance on other sources, including coal, and amplified calls for faster investments in renewables. Power prices in Europe have more than tripled in the past six months, and it's become more profitable to burn coal than gas. Still, utilities have struggled to get their hands on it even as China and the U.S. boost production.
Carbon-dioxide emissions from coal in 2024 are now predicted to be at least 3 billion tons higher than in a scenario reaching net-zero by 2050, the report said. The IEA expects peak coal to occur next year at 8.11 billion tons, with the biggest production increases coming from China, Russia and Pakistan.
The Paris-based IEA said in May that development of new oil, gas and coal sources must stop this year if the world is to meet emissions targets in line with the Paris Agreement. Climate campaigners were dismayed in November when a key aspiration of the United Nations' COP26 climate summit in Scotland was watered down to produce a pledge to "phase down"—rather than "phase out"—coal use. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration since has halted federal aid to new fossil-fuel projects abroad.
Some banks have pledged to phase out their financing of coal, though activists want to see greater urgency. This year, coal demand as a whole—for power generation as well as cement and steel production—is set to rise by 6%, the IEA said.
That demand could set a record next year, depending on economic growth and weather patterns, the agency said. One Australian exporter predicts strong demand for at least two more decades.
Regional disparities in use are playing out globally as Europe shuts down coal power stations while China and India step up production. The European Union ramped up its climate pledge in July, targeting a 55% drop in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to a 1990 baseline, with a transition to cleaner sources at the center. It's a tough target, especially considering that countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic primarily power themselves with coal and lignite.
For now, China accounts for about half of global coal production and needs to meet rising domestic demand. The government has pressured miners to reduce prices and lower the cost of burning coal during this year's energy crisis, which triggered blackouts and rationing in the country.
"It is disappointing that coal power may hit an all-time high in the very same year that countries agreed to phase it down," said Dave Jones, global program lead at climate think-tank Ember. "Coal power will inevitably begin to decline soon: China has committed to phasing down coal from 2025, while India's huge renewables target should remove the need for more coal."
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Global coal use to hit record high despite climate fight
Despite global efforts to slash carbon emissions, global coal-fired power generation is expected to rise 9% and hit a record by the end of 2021, the IEA says. (Stock image.)
Global coal-fired power generation is expected to rise 9% and hit an all-time high by the end of 2021, despite efforts to slash carbon emissions, the International Energy Agency said Friday.
Overall coal demand — including its use in steelmaking, cement and other industrial activities — is expected to grow by 6% in 2021 to 8.11 billion tonnes, the Paris-based group said in its annual report. That puts demand on track to reach a new record high in early 2022 and to remain at that level for the following two years, it said.
Increases in coal demand in Asia will be offset by falling demand in the US and the European Union by 2024, the watchdog noted.
The agency said that renewed demand for the fossil fuel was caused mainly by a faster-than-expected economic recovery, temperature and weather fluctuations that dampened electricity supply and rises gas prices.
“Coal is the single largest source of global carbon emissions, and this year’s historically high level of coal power generation is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
“Without strong and immediate actions by governments to tackle coal emissions — in a way that is fair, affordable and secure for those affected — we will have little chance, if any at all, of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” Birol said.
COP26 didn’t help
In November, more than 190 countries reached a deal at the United Nations COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, that aims to speed up greenhouse-gas emissions cuts and to “phase down” coal use for the future.
A last-minute intervention from India and China weakened efforts to end coal power and fossil fuel subsidies.
“China’s influence on coal markets is difficult to overstate. China’s power generation, including district heating, accounts for one-third of global coal consumption,” the report reads.
Researchers at Wood Mackenzie recently warned that the expected coal phase-out may take longer than countries are willing to admit.
China currently accounts for about half of the world’s coal production and it may grow, as it needs to meet rising domestic demand. The government has pressured miners to reduce prices and lower the cost of burning coal during this year’s energy crisis, which triggered blackouts and rationing in the country.
India vowed in November to triple its solar-power capacity and meet half of its energy requirements with renewable energy by 2030. Still, the IEA forecasts that India’s coal consumption will grow at around 4% each year through 2024.
“It is disappointing that coal power may hit an all-time high in the very same year that countries agreed to phase it down,” Dave Jones, global program lead at climate think-tank Ember, said in an emailed statement.
“Coal power will inevitably begin to decline soon: China has committed to phasing down coal from 2025, while India’s huge renewables target should remove the need for more coal.”
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