Story by Demi Knight • Nov 8
United Conservative Party Leader and Premier Danielle Smith celebrates her win in a byelection in Medicine Hat, Alta., Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh© JMC
Seven years after leaving the legislature, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has reclaimed a seat.
Smith beat out four opponents in the byelection for the constituency of Brooks-Medicine Hat on Tuesday to win her seat.
A SURE FIRE RIGHT WING MORMON, REFORM CHURCH, RIDING IN BROOKS BUT MEDICINE HAT IS A CITY AND THEY VOTED AGAINST SMITH
It was a result that political scientists across the province weren't surprised to hear.
"I think we certainly expected that Danielle Smith would win the seat," said Trevor Harrison, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge. "It would have been a total shock and thrown the UCP into quite a conundrum had she not won."
Read more:
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith wins Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection
However, sitting just below 55 per cent of the votes at of 10:30 p.m. Tuesday evening, her win wasn't as large as some party members may have hoped for.
"I think certainly the UCP and Danielle Smith herself are breathing a sigh of relief, a win is a win. But it is very low," Harrison said.
"This was a byelection in the heart of UCP support, rural Alberta, so one is happy to win the election, but does it send a message somehow that perhaps Danielle Smith is not as saleable out there as the UCP would hope? That's something for the party itself to really mull over in the next little while."
Video: Alberta byelection win affirms uphill urban battle for Premier Danielle Smith
Premier Smith says she doesn’t want her or health minister to bottleneck health decisions
Lori Williams, a political scientist with Mount Royal University, agreed.
"This is nowhere near the decisive win that she would have wanted and probably expected," Williams said.
"She ran in this riding, she wanted to have that decisive victory, and this isn't it."
However, Harrison said there could be several reasons as to why her win was smaller than expected.
"It's also possible that some of the other parties were particularly motivated to come out and vote against Danielle Smith," Harrison said. "Hence, that might explain some of the difference in the percentages for the various candidates."
Video: Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection recap.
Winning her seat in legislature is something that poli-sci professors agree was necessary for Smith to move forward in her political career.
"It would have been very difficult to govern as a premier without sitting in the legislature," Harrison said. "(Danielle Smith) clearly has a pretty robust agenda of things that she wants to do and so presumably, she can do those things better when she's in the legislature."
"Well, it’s a win. And she will take a win. And she'll try to translate that into support in a place in the legislature and the ability to actually move her agenda, whatever that happens to be," Williams said.
Read more:
Advance voting numbers released in Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection
In advance polling, fewer eligible voters in the riding of Brooks-Medicine Hat cast their ballot when compared to the last general election.
Elections Alberta said 4,231 out of 34,060 eligible voters cast their ballots in advance polls this year, which is about 12.4 per cent of eligible voters.
Harrison said low voter turnout for byelections is nothing new, however, he added he was surprised that Premier Smith's status didn't boost numbers at this year's polls.
"Byelections generally don't get as many people out, sometimes we get as low as 35-40 per cent of people turning out," Harrison said. "In this case, however, given that you do have the premier running in the riding, you would expect that the votes should be actually pretty high, so I'm not quite sure what it says about voter apathy."
It was a result that political scientists across the province weren't surprised to hear.
"I think we certainly expected that Danielle Smith would win the seat," said Trevor Harrison, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge. "It would have been a total shock and thrown the UCP into quite a conundrum had she not won."
Read more:
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith wins Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection
However, sitting just below 55 per cent of the votes at of 10:30 p.m. Tuesday evening, her win wasn't as large as some party members may have hoped for.
"I think certainly the UCP and Danielle Smith herself are breathing a sigh of relief, a win is a win. But it is very low," Harrison said.
"This was a byelection in the heart of UCP support, rural Alberta, so one is happy to win the election, but does it send a message somehow that perhaps Danielle Smith is not as saleable out there as the UCP would hope? That's something for the party itself to really mull over in the next little while."
Video: Alberta byelection win affirms uphill urban battle for Premier Danielle Smith
Premier Smith says she doesn’t want her or health minister to bottleneck health decisions
Lori Williams, a political scientist with Mount Royal University, agreed.
"This is nowhere near the decisive win that she would have wanted and probably expected," Williams said.
"She ran in this riding, she wanted to have that decisive victory, and this isn't it."
However, Harrison said there could be several reasons as to why her win was smaller than expected.
"It's also possible that some of the other parties were particularly motivated to come out and vote against Danielle Smith," Harrison said. "Hence, that might explain some of the difference in the percentages for the various candidates."
Video: Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection recap.
Winning her seat in legislature is something that poli-sci professors agree was necessary for Smith to move forward in her political career.
"It would have been very difficult to govern as a premier without sitting in the legislature," Harrison said. "(Danielle Smith) clearly has a pretty robust agenda of things that she wants to do and so presumably, she can do those things better when she's in the legislature."
"Well, it’s a win. And she will take a win. And she'll try to translate that into support in a place in the legislature and the ability to actually move her agenda, whatever that happens to be," Williams said.
Read more:
Advance voting numbers released in Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection
In advance polling, fewer eligible voters in the riding of Brooks-Medicine Hat cast their ballot when compared to the last general election.
Elections Alberta said 4,231 out of 34,060 eligible voters cast their ballots in advance polls this year, which is about 12.4 per cent of eligible voters.
Harrison said low voter turnout for byelections is nothing new, however, he added he was surprised that Premier Smith's status didn't boost numbers at this year's polls.
"Byelections generally don't get as many people out, sometimes we get as low as 35-40 per cent of people turning out," Harrison said. "In this case, however, given that you do have the premier running in the riding, you would expect that the votes should be actually pretty high, so I'm not quite sure what it says about voter apathy."
Official Results for Brooks-Medicine Hat By
Election
November 18, 2022
EDMONTON – Elections Alberta has announced the Official Results for the Brooks-Medicine Hat By-Election held on November 8, 2022.
Official Results are available on the Elections Alberta website, under “Election Results.” Results include information on the number of ballots cast, number of electors on the list of electors, which includes new registrations, and poll-by-poll results for each candidate.
The successful candidate in the Brooks-Medicine Hat By-Election is Danielle Smith, representing the United Conservative Party.
The voter turnout in the Brooks-Medicine Hat By-Election was 35.5%. The following table provides the turnout figures for the By-Election as well as the comparative numbers from the 2019 Provincial General Election.
Provincial Election Total Votes Cast
Includes valid, declined and rejected ballots
Includes valid, declined and rejected ballots
Brooks-Medicine Hat 2022 12,737
By-Election2019 22,470
Registered Electors
Brooks-Medicine Hat 2022 35,872
By-Election2019 34,257
Voter Turnout
Brooks-Medicine Hat 2022 35.5%
By-Election2019 65.6%
Of the electors who voted, the following voting methods were used:
- 63.8% voted on Election Day (in-person voting on Tuesday, November 8).
- 33.2% voted in Advance (in-person voting between Tuesday, November 1, and Saturday, November 5).
- 0.8% voted by Special Ballot (voting in the returning office and voting by mail requests).
- 2.2% voted at a Mobile Poll (Election Day voting opportunities provided in hospitals, supportive living and long-term care facilities, homeless shelters and community support centres).
Elections Alberta is an independent, non-partisan office of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta responsible for administering provincial elections, by elections, and referenda.
For media inquiries, please contact:
Megan Narsing
Media and Communications Officer
Phone: 780.427.6698
Email: media@elections.ab.ca
Posted in: Press Releases
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