Story by Briar Stewart • CBC-Yesterday
At the front of an opposition rally in the Turkish industrial city of Bursa on May 11, a group of women lined up behind metal fencing waving flags and chanting about the cost of potatoes and onions.
"Erdogan's got to go!" they shouted.
The rally, which attracted thousands of people, was held just days before Turkey votes in what is being called a pivotal election that could end Recep Tayyip's Erdogan's 20 years in power and usher in a new political era.
The rising cost of an onion, a kitchen staple, has become a symbol of Turkey's rampant inflation and a fixture in political advertisements for opposition leader Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu.
A 74-year-old former civil servant, Kiliçdaroğlu is leading a six-party alliance that has united in an effort to defeat Erdogan in the presidential election, which takes place May 14. (A parliamentary vote to elect the 600 deputies for Turkey's Grand National Assembly will take place at the same time.)
Eighteen-year-old Serif Cetinkaya, centre, is voting for the first time in Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14. He was in the front row of a rally for Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.© Briar Stewart/CBC
"We need to change our country — right now, it is very bad," said Serif Cetinkaya, 18, one of the estimated five million young people who will be voting for the first time in the presidential election.
"It will be a historical election for Turkish citizens," said Seren Sevin Korkmaz, executive director of the Istanbul Political Research Institute. "It's not just electing a presidential candidate or political party, but it is a selection for Turkey's future."
A tight race
The latest polls sugges Kiliçdaroğlu has a narrow lead over Erdogan, which may have widened after another opposition candidate with sparse support dropped out of the race this week.
There remains a real possibility that neither presidential candidate will get over the 50 per cent threshold needed for victory, thereby forcing a second round of voting, which would take place on May 28.
Turkish society is polarized between the two political camps and that's played out under a heavy police presence at massive, high-energy rallies held daily throughout the political campaign.
Erdogan, 69, is a populist with fiercely loyal supporters, but he and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) are facing criticism at home and abroad.
A woman working on Recep Tayyip Erdogan's re-election campaign hands out pamphlets in Istanbul, where the president is holding his final political rallies of the campaign.© Briar Stewart/CBC
He is accused of mismanaging the economy and driving up inflation, while eroding the country's institutions by squeezing the central bank and exerting control over a wide swath of the media.
The election also comes three months after a devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey killed 50,000 people and displaced more than three million. In the wake of the disaster, Erdogan's government was criticized for not sending out search teams fast enough.
Korkmaz says that after Erdogan was first elected in 2003, he was praised for the country's economic growth and an infrastructure boom. He also strengthened international relations, mainly with the European Union, and solidified Turkey's position as a regional power at the intersection of Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
In 2005, Erdogan started accession talks with the EU, but as the years progressed, they came to a standstill, due to what EU officials call a "negative trend" in Turkey when it comes to the rule of law and fundamental rights. The European Commission accused the country of "democratic backsliding."
Korkmaz says in recent years, Erdogan has turned the country into an autocracy, particularly after an attempted coup in 2016 that left more than 250 people dead. There has been a crackdown on dissent — opposition politicians and activists have faced arrest and jail time, and supposedly independent institutions like the judiciary have been weakened in an effort to prop up Erdogan's power.
Seren Sevin Korkmaz, the executive director of an Istanbul-based think-tank, frames Turkey's presidential election as a choice between democracy and autocracy.
© Briar Stewart/CBC
In 2017, Turkey's population narrowly approved a transition from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, the result of a referendum in which European observers believe millions of votes may have been manipulated.
The following year, Erdogan was re-elected and sworn in as president.
Centralizing power was an initial political advantage for Erdogan, but Korkmaz says it has since become a weakness, because people blame Erdogan directly for the "fragile economy and unbalanced foreign policy."
Rampant inflation
Erdogan, who has promised that interest rates will keep dropping as long as he is in power, has put pressure on the central bank to adopt what many economists call an unorthodox policy to fight soaring inflation. Between 2019 and 2021, Erdogan's government sacked three central bank governors, which hurt Turkey's financial credibility and weakened its currency, the lira. Inflation peaked last fall at 85 per cent.
Official inflation now stands at 44 per cent. As a point of comparison, in the U.K. it is just over 10 per cent.
At a small market in Bursa on Thursday, shoppers surveyed fruits and vegetables that lined wooden tables — and the price tags attached. A few who spoke to CBC News said they can no longer afford to buy the usual groceries, and that the cost of living overall has jumped dramatically.
Turkey's economic crisis is one of the major factors for voters. The country has been grappling with rampant inflation.© Briar Stewart/CBC
"[The government] does not think about us. They're thinking about filling their [bank accounts]," said Aytekin Sasmaz. He showed CBC a plastic bag of onions, which he said would have previously cost the equivalent of 25¢ Cdn, and now costs around $2.50.
"I think that on May 14, the system and the government will change," Sasmaz said.
The man who could defeat Erdogan
At a political rally in this city of three million later that afternoon, Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu made an outline of a heart with his hands, mirroring many in the crowd who were making the same symbol.
"Spring will come to Turkey," he shouted into a microphone. "We are going to change a totalitarian regime through democracy."
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the presidential candidate of Turkey's main opposition alliance, gestures during a rally in Bursa, Turkey, on May 11.
In 2017, Turkey's population narrowly approved a transition from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, the result of a referendum in which European observers believe millions of votes may have been manipulated.
The following year, Erdogan was re-elected and sworn in as president.
Centralizing power was an initial political advantage for Erdogan, but Korkmaz says it has since become a weakness, because people blame Erdogan directly for the "fragile economy and unbalanced foreign policy."
Rampant inflation
Erdogan, who has promised that interest rates will keep dropping as long as he is in power, has put pressure on the central bank to adopt what many economists call an unorthodox policy to fight soaring inflation. Between 2019 and 2021, Erdogan's government sacked three central bank governors, which hurt Turkey's financial credibility and weakened its currency, the lira. Inflation peaked last fall at 85 per cent.
Official inflation now stands at 44 per cent. As a point of comparison, in the U.K. it is just over 10 per cent.
At a small market in Bursa on Thursday, shoppers surveyed fruits and vegetables that lined wooden tables — and the price tags attached. A few who spoke to CBC News said they can no longer afford to buy the usual groceries, and that the cost of living overall has jumped dramatically.
Turkey's economic crisis is one of the major factors for voters. The country has been grappling with rampant inflation.© Briar Stewart/CBC
"[The government] does not think about us. They're thinking about filling their [bank accounts]," said Aytekin Sasmaz. He showed CBC a plastic bag of onions, which he said would have previously cost the equivalent of 25¢ Cdn, and now costs around $2.50.
"I think that on May 14, the system and the government will change," Sasmaz said.
The man who could defeat Erdogan
At a political rally in this city of three million later that afternoon, Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu made an outline of a heart with his hands, mirroring many in the crowd who were making the same symbol.
"Spring will come to Turkey," he shouted into a microphone. "We are going to change a totalitarian regime through democracy."
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the presidential candidate of Turkey's main opposition alliance, gestures during a rally in Bursa, Turkey, on May 11.
© Murad Sezer/Reuters
Among other things, Kiliçdaroğlu promised that he would eliminate the polarization in this country of 85 million, and that people would live freely and "tweet without fear."
His campaign has revolved around the idea of rebuilding democracy, but he has also pledged to send the more than three million Syrian refugees staying in Turkey back home, adding they are free to return as "tourists."
In an interview with Reuters, Kiliçdaroğlu said he wanted to strike a balance when it comes to foreign relations with Russia, which he has accused of meddling in Turkey's election. Moscow has denied this.
Kiliçdaroğlu said unlike Erdogan's government, he would actively consult with the country's foreign ministry and fully support the expansion of NATO. Turkey has stalled Sweden's NATO bid as it tries to pressure the Nordic country to extradite alleged militants that Turkey suspects of being linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is considered a terror group by the EU, U.S. and U.K.
While Turkey's close relations with Russia have sparked some friction among the NATO alliance, Erdogan has also been praised by the UN for helping broker a deal to facilitate grain shipments out of Ukraine's Black Sea ports amid the Russia-Ukraine war.
The president's base
Many of Erdogan's supporters view him as irreplaceable. At a massive, frenetic rally in Istanbul on Friday, people crowded the streets because there wasn't enough room for the president's thousands of fans near the mosque where the event was taking place.
"We love him so much," said Dilara Emec, 20. She and her boyfriend, Omer Furkan, admit the economy is bad, but are adamant it's not a reason to vote Erdogan out.
"You can find bread, you can find onions or potatoes, but you can't find a country like this, a leader like him," said Furkan.
Omer Furkan, 22, and Dilara Emec, 20, stand outside an Erdogan rally on May 12. The couple told CBC News they can't imagine the current president being defeated, but if he is, they plan to keep supporting him
Among other things, Kiliçdaroğlu promised that he would eliminate the polarization in this country of 85 million, and that people would live freely and "tweet without fear."
His campaign has revolved around the idea of rebuilding democracy, but he has also pledged to send the more than three million Syrian refugees staying in Turkey back home, adding they are free to return as "tourists."
In an interview with Reuters, Kiliçdaroğlu said he wanted to strike a balance when it comes to foreign relations with Russia, which he has accused of meddling in Turkey's election. Moscow has denied this.
Kiliçdaroğlu said unlike Erdogan's government, he would actively consult with the country's foreign ministry and fully support the expansion of NATO. Turkey has stalled Sweden's NATO bid as it tries to pressure the Nordic country to extradite alleged militants that Turkey suspects of being linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is considered a terror group by the EU, U.S. and U.K.
While Turkey's close relations with Russia have sparked some friction among the NATO alliance, Erdogan has also been praised by the UN for helping broker a deal to facilitate grain shipments out of Ukraine's Black Sea ports amid the Russia-Ukraine war.
The president's base
Many of Erdogan's supporters view him as irreplaceable. At a massive, frenetic rally in Istanbul on Friday, people crowded the streets because there wasn't enough room for the president's thousands of fans near the mosque where the event was taking place.
"We love him so much," said Dilara Emec, 20. She and her boyfriend, Omer Furkan, admit the economy is bad, but are adamant it's not a reason to vote Erdogan out.
"You can find bread, you can find onions or potatoes, but you can't find a country like this, a leader like him," said Furkan.
Omer Furkan, 22, and Dilara Emec, 20, stand outside an Erdogan rally on May 12. The couple told CBC News they can't imagine the current president being defeated, but if he is, they plan to keep supporting him
.© Corinne Seminoff/CBC
Erdogan attended the rally after helping to open a newly built mosque. Throughout the campaign, he has defended his economic policies while railing against LGBTQ people and an opposition he says sides with terrorists. Erdogan insists he is ready to protect the country the way he did after the attempted coup in 2016.
A day earlier, protesters threw stones at the mayor of Istanbul, an opposition candidate who was campaigning in a city that's traditionally been loyal to Erdogan's party.
"We have to get rid of this polarization," said Ertim Orkun, president of the Istanbul-based organization Vote and Beyond. His team has recruited about 65,000 volunteers to monitor roughly 200,000 polling stations in Turkey. Part of their training includes how to diffuse heated arguments.
"We try to prepare [workers] psychologically … 'be the person who's calm, who's cool. Just try to neutralize the room.'"
Orkun expects tension and even anger after the ballots are counted this weekend, but dismisses fears over protests turning violent. He doesn't buy into all the talk about the historic nature of this election.
"Every time we have an election, we keep saying the same thing: 'This is the most important election ever.'"
Erdogan attended the rally after helping to open a newly built mosque. Throughout the campaign, he has defended his economic policies while railing against LGBTQ people and an opposition he says sides with terrorists. Erdogan insists he is ready to protect the country the way he did after the attempted coup in 2016.
A day earlier, protesters threw stones at the mayor of Istanbul, an opposition candidate who was campaigning in a city that's traditionally been loyal to Erdogan's party.
"We have to get rid of this polarization," said Ertim Orkun, president of the Istanbul-based organization Vote and Beyond. His team has recruited about 65,000 volunteers to monitor roughly 200,000 polling stations in Turkey. Part of their training includes how to diffuse heated arguments.
"We try to prepare [workers] psychologically … 'be the person who's calm, who's cool. Just try to neutralize the room.'"
Orkun expects tension and even anger after the ballots are counted this weekend, but dismisses fears over protests turning violent. He doesn't buy into all the talk about the historic nature of this election.
"Every time we have an election, we keep saying the same thing: 'This is the most important election ever.'"
Turkish opposition accuses Russia of election interference days before vote
Story by Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı in Istanbul • Yesterday
“As we get closer to the vote, I feel excited but also responsible for the fate of 85 million people across Turkey,” said Canan Kaftancıoğlu, a leading member of the CHP, currently weathering a ban from politics after a court charged her with insulting Erdoğan. Despite the ban, Kaftancıoğlu has continued to work, aiding Kılıçdaroğlu in his fight for the presidency by overseeing efforts to ensure a fair election.
“I believe this election will set an example, not just for Turkey but for the whole world. For the first time, an authoritarian regime will be taken out by democracy,” she said. “If we succeed, it will set an example for other countries struggling for their own democracies.”
The possibility of a one-round race with potentially a victor as early as Sunday increased slightly after İnce dropped out, leaving only the small margin of votes held by the ultranationalist Sinan Oğan of the Victory party to spoil the chances of either candidate reaching the threshold for a runoff.
In the parliamentary elections, polls also suggest Erdoğan’s coalition could lose its governing majority, but the opposition must win a majority in parliament and the presidency to ensure they achieve their primary aim of returning Turkey to parliamentary democracy.
“We do not trust the supreme election council, but we took every precaution,” Kılıçdaroğlu said during a recent interview, describing how the CHP and their partners in opposition assign poll watchers to every ballot box, and will conduct a parallel count on election day to ensure a fair vote. “Despite it all, we will win,” he said.
For the opposition, their continued survival as well as democracy itself are on the ballot; Erdoğan’s coalition partner, Devlet Bahçeli, recently declared the opposition could receive “life sentences or bullets in their bodies”. The campaign trail has been pockmarked with violence towards opposition figures with a bullet being thrown inside the CHP’s local offices in one town, a day after a group through stones at supporters and the campaign bus of the leading opposition figure and Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
“This is the election that determines whether Erdoğan is considered an elected president with autocratic tendencies who then lost and left power, where the story is one of the resilience of Turkish democracy. Or, is it an election in which after everything he’s done, with Osman Kavala[a philanthropist] in prison, with Selahattin Demirtaş [a Kurdish political leader] in prison, with dozens of journalists arrested, where Erdoğan wins again and comes back to do this for another five years,” said Nate Schenkkan of Freedom House.
The vote for president is expected to be close, where even a difference of a few percentage points could affect which candidate can claim the vote was fair and provides a clear mandate or whether it goes to a runoff two weeks later. This outcome is expected to depend in part on Kurdish voters, including the sizeable portion now backing Kılıçdaroğlu after the largely Kurdish leftwing Peoples’ Democratic party opted not to field a presidential candidate, and its jailed leader Demirtaş backed Kılıçdaroğlu.
The result will also hinge heavily on votes cast within the 11 Turkish provinces deeply affected by twin powerful earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people, levelled infrastructure and displaced millions.
The government resisted efforts to allow those registered to vote within the earthquake zone to vote elsewhere, forcing those wishing to cast their ballots to return to areas destroyed by the earthquake on election day.
“This is a big problem, and we honestly have no idea what will happen,” said Nuran Yilmaz, deputy head of the CHP in the coastal town of Antalya whose family in the southernmost province of Hatay was displaced by the earthquake and will be forced to return there to vote. “Our party is working on it, but we will be forced to pay to travel to Hatay. My entire family, my sister and my brother will go to Hatay and pay their own way, just to vote.”
Amid concerns about the fairness of the upcoming vote, Schenkkan said this was distinct from whether the election should be considered free. “I think fairness is not up for debate any more, given Erdoğan’s disproportionate use of state media, his control of mainstream broadcast and print media, the censorship of social media, the imprisonment of Demirtaş, there’s a whole slew of ways in which this election is not fair,” he said.
“But freeness is debatable, for one it’s not really free as the HDP is not really free to compete, there’s imprisonment of its most prominent leaders and many of its members and the overall atmosphere of retribution against that party affects the freedom of choice most voters have. Freedom at the ballot box is governed by the election authority, so the voting could be run freely but they could still change the rules at the end.”
Turkey elections: why Europe is watching closely
Story by By Andrew Gray •REUTERS - Yesterday
FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan arrives for a meeting with EU Council President Charles Michel in Brussels© Thomson Reuters
By Andrew Gray
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Turkey's elections on Sunday are a key moment not just for the country itself but also for its European neighbours.
With President Tayyip Erdogan facing his toughest electoral test in two decades, European Union and NATO members are watching to see whether change comes to a country that affects them on issues ranging from security to migration and energy.
Relations between Erdogan and the EU have become highly strained in recent years, as the 27-member bloc cooled on the idea of Ankara becoming a member and condemned crackdowns on human rights, judicial independence and media freedom.
Leading members of NATO, to which Turkey belongs, have expressed alarm at Erdogan's close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and concern that Turkey is being used to circumvent sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine.
Erdogan's challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has pledged more freedom at home and foreign policies hewing closer to the West.
Whatever the outcome, Turkey's European neighbours will use the election and its aftermath to assess their relationship with Ankara and the degree to which it can be reset.
Here are some key issues that European countries will be watching, according to officials, diplomats and analysts:
ELECTION CONDUCT
EU officials have been careful not to express a preference for a candidate. But they have made clear they will be looking out for vote-rigging, violence or other election interference.
"It is important that the process itself is clean and free," said Sergey Lagodinsky, a German member of the European Parliament who co-chairs a group of EU and Turkish lawmakers.
Peter Stano, a spokesman for the EU's diplomatic service, said the bloc expected the vote to be "transparent and inclusive" and in line with democratic standards Turkey has committed to.
A worst-case scenario for both Turkey and the EU would be a contested result - perhaps after a second round - leading the incumbent to launch a crackdown on protests, said Dimitar Bechev, the author of a book on Turkey under Erdogan.
SWEDEN AND NATO
"Five more years of Erdogan means five more years of Turkey being with one weak foot in NATO and one strong foot with Russia," said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank.
Erdogan has vexed other NATO members by buying a Russian S-400 missile defence system and contributing little to NATO's reinforcement of its eastern flank.
An early test of whether the election winner wants to mend NATO ties will be whether he stops blocking Swedish membership. Erdogan has demanded Stockholm extradite Kurdish militants but Swedish courts have blocked some expulsions.
Analysts and diplomats expect Kilicdaroglu would end the block on Sweden joining NATO, prompting Hungary - the only other holdout - to follow suit. That could let Sweden join in time for a NATO summit in Lithuania in July.
Some analysts and diplomats say Erdogan might also lift his objections after the elections but others are unconvinced.
RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
Although Erdogan has tried to strike a balance between Moscow and the West, his political relationship with Putin and Turkey's economic ties to Russia are a source of EU frustration. That will likely continue if Erdogan wins another term.
If Kilicdaroglu triumphs, European officials would likely be content with a gradual shift away from Moscow, recognising that Turkey is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and its economy depends on Russia to a significant extent.
"With Russia, a new government will be treading very carefully," Bechev said.
However, Kilicdaroglu showed this week he was willing to criticise Russia, publicly accusing Moscow of responsibility for fake material on social media ahead of Sunday's ballot.
RULE OF LAW, CYPRUS
If Kilicdaroglu and his coalition wins, the EU will be keen to see if they keep promises to release Erdogan critics from jail, in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings, and generally improve rule-of-law standards.
"You’re going to have a wait-and-see attitude from the EU," said Pierini.
If there is a crackdown on graft, European companies may be ready to make big investments in Turkey once again, perhaps with backing from the EU and its member governments, he said.
Efforts to expand an EU-Turkey customs union to include more goods and grant Turks visa-free EU travel could also be revived.
But neither would be easy - not least because of the divided island of Cyprus. Its internationally recognised government, composed of Greek Cypriots, is an EU member, while the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state is recognised only by Ankara.
"This is of course the big stumbling block in our relations," said European Parliament member Lagodinsky.
However, EU officials see little sign that Kilicdaroglu would change much on Cyprus.
"The big game changer for EU-Turkey relations would be Cyprus. Here the candidates' agenda, however, does not seem fundamentally different," said a senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Cyprus is one of many factors that make a revival of EU membership negotiations unlikely, officials and analysts say. EU leaders designated Turkey as a candidate to join the bloc in 2004 but the talks ground to a halt years ago.
"There are many other ways to strengthen the relationship, build confidence. There is already a lot of European money that has made its way to Turkey," said a European diplomat. "I don't know anyone in Europe who wants to revive EU membership talks."
(Reporting by Andrew Gray, John Irish and Gabriela Baczynska)
Story by Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı in Istanbul • Yesterday
The Guardian
Photograph: Murad Sezer/Reuters© Provided by The Guardian
Turkey’s leading opposition candidate has accused Russia of election interference days before the country’s most consequential vote in a generation.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s party (CHP), the chief rival to the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, accused Russia of concocting deepfake videos and false material, seemingly a reference to an allegedly fake sex tape of candidate Muharrem İnce, released a day before he dropped out of the race.
“If you want the continuation of our friendship after 15 May, get your hands off the Turkish state,” said Kılıçdaroğlu, adding: “We are still in favour of cooperation and friendship.”
Turkish voters will go to the polls on 14 May to cast their ballots for both the president and parliament. Re-electing Erdoğan would provide a mandate for him to further concentrate power around his office, crack down on opponents, and use his position of influence on the world stage to harden his control at home.
Current polling suggests a tight vote in the presidential election, where one candidate must secure more than 51% to win outright, or the race will go to a runoff two weeks later.
Related: The Guardian view on Turkey’s election: an end to Erdoğan’s authoritarianism? | Editorial
Erdoğan, who previously lashed out at the US ambassador Jeff Flake for publicly meeting with Kılıçdaroğlu, has declared that “Turkey will give a message to the west with this election.” His interior minister, Süleyman Soylu, went even further, describing the vote on 14 May as “a political coup attempt by the west”.
The six-party opposition coalition led by Kılıçdaroğlu has campaigned on the promise of reform, and the dismantling of a sprawling system of control that Erdoğan has spent two decades building. Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey transformed into a presidential system supported by a vast patronage network loyal to his Justice and Development party (AKP), rebuffing an attempted military coup in 2016 and often branding his opponents enemies of the state. Erdoğan has also increased Turkey’s footprint overseas and reshaped its economy in his image, overseeing vast infrastructure projects and development but also an economic crisis in which the Turkish lira has halved in value in the past year alone.
An image of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on the side of a bus in Istanbul in the lead up to Sunday’s election.
Photograph: Murad Sezer/Reuters© Provided by The Guardian
Turkey’s leading opposition candidate has accused Russia of election interference days before the country’s most consequential vote in a generation.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s party (CHP), the chief rival to the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, accused Russia of concocting deepfake videos and false material, seemingly a reference to an allegedly fake sex tape of candidate Muharrem İnce, released a day before he dropped out of the race.
“If you want the continuation of our friendship after 15 May, get your hands off the Turkish state,” said Kılıçdaroğlu, adding: “We are still in favour of cooperation and friendship.”
Turkish voters will go to the polls on 14 May to cast their ballots for both the president and parliament. Re-electing Erdoğan would provide a mandate for him to further concentrate power around his office, crack down on opponents, and use his position of influence on the world stage to harden his control at home.
Current polling suggests a tight vote in the presidential election, where one candidate must secure more than 51% to win outright, or the race will go to a runoff two weeks later.
Related: The Guardian view on Turkey’s election: an end to Erdoğan’s authoritarianism? | Editorial
Erdoğan, who previously lashed out at the US ambassador Jeff Flake for publicly meeting with Kılıçdaroğlu, has declared that “Turkey will give a message to the west with this election.” His interior minister, Süleyman Soylu, went even further, describing the vote on 14 May as “a political coup attempt by the west”.
The six-party opposition coalition led by Kılıçdaroğlu has campaigned on the promise of reform, and the dismantling of a sprawling system of control that Erdoğan has spent two decades building. Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey transformed into a presidential system supported by a vast patronage network loyal to his Justice and Development party (AKP), rebuffing an attempted military coup in 2016 and often branding his opponents enemies of the state. Erdoğan has also increased Turkey’s footprint overseas and reshaped its economy in his image, overseeing vast infrastructure projects and development but also an economic crisis in which the Turkish lira has halved in value in the past year alone.
An image of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on the side of a bus in Istanbul in the lead up to Sunday’s election.
Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters
Related video: Turkey election candidate drops out, putting Erdogan at risk (WION)Duration 2:59 View on Watch
“As we get closer to the vote, I feel excited but also responsible for the fate of 85 million people across Turkey,” said Canan Kaftancıoğlu, a leading member of the CHP, currently weathering a ban from politics after a court charged her with insulting Erdoğan. Despite the ban, Kaftancıoğlu has continued to work, aiding Kılıçdaroğlu in his fight for the presidency by overseeing efforts to ensure a fair election.
“I believe this election will set an example, not just for Turkey but for the whole world. For the first time, an authoritarian regime will be taken out by democracy,” she said. “If we succeed, it will set an example for other countries struggling for their own democracies.”
The possibility of a one-round race with potentially a victor as early as Sunday increased slightly after İnce dropped out, leaving only the small margin of votes held by the ultranationalist Sinan Oğan of the Victory party to spoil the chances of either candidate reaching the threshold for a runoff.
In the parliamentary elections, polls also suggest Erdoğan’s coalition could lose its governing majority, but the opposition must win a majority in parliament and the presidency to ensure they achieve their primary aim of returning Turkey to parliamentary democracy.
“We do not trust the supreme election council, but we took every precaution,” Kılıçdaroğlu said during a recent interview, describing how the CHP and their partners in opposition assign poll watchers to every ballot box, and will conduct a parallel count on election day to ensure a fair vote. “Despite it all, we will win,” he said.
For the opposition, their continued survival as well as democracy itself are on the ballot; Erdoğan’s coalition partner, Devlet Bahçeli, recently declared the opposition could receive “life sentences or bullets in their bodies”. The campaign trail has been pockmarked with violence towards opposition figures with a bullet being thrown inside the CHP’s local offices in one town, a day after a group through stones at supporters and the campaign bus of the leading opposition figure and Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
“This is the election that determines whether Erdoğan is considered an elected president with autocratic tendencies who then lost and left power, where the story is one of the resilience of Turkish democracy. Or, is it an election in which after everything he’s done, with Osman Kavala[a philanthropist] in prison, with Selahattin Demirtaş [a Kurdish political leader] in prison, with dozens of journalists arrested, where Erdoğan wins again and comes back to do this for another five years,” said Nate Schenkkan of Freedom House.
The vote for president is expected to be close, where even a difference of a few percentage points could affect which candidate can claim the vote was fair and provides a clear mandate or whether it goes to a runoff two weeks later. This outcome is expected to depend in part on Kurdish voters, including the sizeable portion now backing Kılıçdaroğlu after the largely Kurdish leftwing Peoples’ Democratic party opted not to field a presidential candidate, and its jailed leader Demirtaş backed Kılıçdaroğlu.
The result will also hinge heavily on votes cast within the 11 Turkish provinces deeply affected by twin powerful earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people, levelled infrastructure and displaced millions.
The government resisted efforts to allow those registered to vote within the earthquake zone to vote elsewhere, forcing those wishing to cast their ballots to return to areas destroyed by the earthquake on election day.
“This is a big problem, and we honestly have no idea what will happen,” said Nuran Yilmaz, deputy head of the CHP in the coastal town of Antalya whose family in the southernmost province of Hatay was displaced by the earthquake and will be forced to return there to vote. “Our party is working on it, but we will be forced to pay to travel to Hatay. My entire family, my sister and my brother will go to Hatay and pay their own way, just to vote.”
Amid concerns about the fairness of the upcoming vote, Schenkkan said this was distinct from whether the election should be considered free. “I think fairness is not up for debate any more, given Erdoğan’s disproportionate use of state media, his control of mainstream broadcast and print media, the censorship of social media, the imprisonment of Demirtaş, there’s a whole slew of ways in which this election is not fair,” he said.
“But freeness is debatable, for one it’s not really free as the HDP is not really free to compete, there’s imprisonment of its most prominent leaders and many of its members and the overall atmosphere of retribution against that party affects the freedom of choice most voters have. Freedom at the ballot box is governed by the election authority, so the voting could be run freely but they could still change the rules at the end.”
Turkey elections: why Europe is watching closely
Story by By Andrew Gray •REUTERS - Yesterday
FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan arrives for a meeting with EU Council President Charles Michel in Brussels© Thomson Reuters
By Andrew Gray
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Turkey's elections on Sunday are a key moment not just for the country itself but also for its European neighbours.
With President Tayyip Erdogan facing his toughest electoral test in two decades, European Union and NATO members are watching to see whether change comes to a country that affects them on issues ranging from security to migration and energy.
Relations between Erdogan and the EU have become highly strained in recent years, as the 27-member bloc cooled on the idea of Ankara becoming a member and condemned crackdowns on human rights, judicial independence and media freedom.
Leading members of NATO, to which Turkey belongs, have expressed alarm at Erdogan's close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and concern that Turkey is being used to circumvent sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine.
Erdogan's challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has pledged more freedom at home and foreign policies hewing closer to the West.
Whatever the outcome, Turkey's European neighbours will use the election and its aftermath to assess their relationship with Ankara and the degree to which it can be reset.
Here are some key issues that European countries will be watching, according to officials, diplomats and analysts:
ELECTION CONDUCT
EU officials have been careful not to express a preference for a candidate. But they have made clear they will be looking out for vote-rigging, violence or other election interference.
"It is important that the process itself is clean and free," said Sergey Lagodinsky, a German member of the European Parliament who co-chairs a group of EU and Turkish lawmakers.
Peter Stano, a spokesman for the EU's diplomatic service, said the bloc expected the vote to be "transparent and inclusive" and in line with democratic standards Turkey has committed to.
A worst-case scenario for both Turkey and the EU would be a contested result - perhaps after a second round - leading the incumbent to launch a crackdown on protests, said Dimitar Bechev, the author of a book on Turkey under Erdogan.
SWEDEN AND NATO
"Five more years of Erdogan means five more years of Turkey being with one weak foot in NATO and one strong foot with Russia," said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank.
Erdogan has vexed other NATO members by buying a Russian S-400 missile defence system and contributing little to NATO's reinforcement of its eastern flank.
An early test of whether the election winner wants to mend NATO ties will be whether he stops blocking Swedish membership. Erdogan has demanded Stockholm extradite Kurdish militants but Swedish courts have blocked some expulsions.
Analysts and diplomats expect Kilicdaroglu would end the block on Sweden joining NATO, prompting Hungary - the only other holdout - to follow suit. That could let Sweden join in time for a NATO summit in Lithuania in July.
Some analysts and diplomats say Erdogan might also lift his objections after the elections but others are unconvinced.
RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
Although Erdogan has tried to strike a balance between Moscow and the West, his political relationship with Putin and Turkey's economic ties to Russia are a source of EU frustration. That will likely continue if Erdogan wins another term.
If Kilicdaroglu triumphs, European officials would likely be content with a gradual shift away from Moscow, recognising that Turkey is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and its economy depends on Russia to a significant extent.
"With Russia, a new government will be treading very carefully," Bechev said.
However, Kilicdaroglu showed this week he was willing to criticise Russia, publicly accusing Moscow of responsibility for fake material on social media ahead of Sunday's ballot.
RULE OF LAW, CYPRUS
If Kilicdaroglu and his coalition wins, the EU will be keen to see if they keep promises to release Erdogan critics from jail, in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings, and generally improve rule-of-law standards.
"You’re going to have a wait-and-see attitude from the EU," said Pierini.
If there is a crackdown on graft, European companies may be ready to make big investments in Turkey once again, perhaps with backing from the EU and its member governments, he said.
Efforts to expand an EU-Turkey customs union to include more goods and grant Turks visa-free EU travel could also be revived.
But neither would be easy - not least because of the divided island of Cyprus. Its internationally recognised government, composed of Greek Cypriots, is an EU member, while the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state is recognised only by Ankara.
"This is of course the big stumbling block in our relations," said European Parliament member Lagodinsky.
However, EU officials see little sign that Kilicdaroglu would change much on Cyprus.
"The big game changer for EU-Turkey relations would be Cyprus. Here the candidates' agenda, however, does not seem fundamentally different," said a senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Cyprus is one of many factors that make a revival of EU membership negotiations unlikely, officials and analysts say. EU leaders designated Turkey as a candidate to join the bloc in 2004 but the talks ground to a halt years ago.
"There are many other ways to strengthen the relationship, build confidence. There is already a lot of European money that has made its way to Turkey," said a European diplomat. "I don't know anyone in Europe who wants to revive EU membership talks."
(Reporting by Andrew Gray, John Irish and Gabriela Baczynska)
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