Turkey's undefeated Erdogan nears knife-edge vote
Dmitry ZAKS
Sat, May 6, 2023
Erdogan unshackled religious restrictions, allowing veiled women to study and work
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan next Sunday puts his two-decade legacy on the line in a knife-edge vote against a powerful alliance built on anger over economic hardship and his authoritarian turn.
The 69-year-old has become one of Turkey's most important and divisive leaders since his Islamic-rooted party ended half a century of secular rule and launched an era of social transformation.
Turkey became a strategic player with a vibrant economy and a modern army of drones that shifted battlefields in wars stretching from Libya to Ukraine.
Erdogan's global stature soared when he helped stem Europe's migrant crisis in 2016 -- and then plunged when he unleashed a crackdown on dissent later that same year.
He enters one of the biggest elections of Turkey's modern era with his popularity weighed down by a crippling cost-of-living crisis and the social aftershocks of a February earthquake that claimed more than 50,000 lives.
The real possibility of defeat has seen Erdogan defiantly turn to sharply polarising themes that have given the polls a powder keg feel.
He accuses the West of funding his "pro-LGBT" rivals and portrays himself as a defender of conservative values against attacks by foreign "terrorists".
The increasingly febrile atmosphere prompted opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu to ask supporters to stay home if they win.
"If we go out, there may be riots, armed people may take to the streets," the 74-year-old secular opposition leader warned.
- 'Political coup' -
The nation of 85 million appears as splintered as ever about whether Erdogan has done more harm than good in the only Muslim-majority country of the NATO defence bloc.
The entry of two minor candidates means that Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will likely face each other again in a runoff on May 28.
But some of Erdogan's more hawkish ministers are sounding warnings about Western efforts to undermine Turkey's might through the polls.
The parliamentary and presidential polls will see Erdogan face a six-party alliance that crosses Turkey's vast political spectrum and includes some of his former allies.
Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu has repeatedly referred to US President Joe Biden's 2019 suggestion that Washington should embolden the opposition "to take on and defeat Erdogan".
"July 15 was their actual coup attempt," Soylu said of a failed 2016 military putsch that Erdogan blamed on a US-based Muslim preacher.
"And May 14 is their political coup attempt."
- Splintered society -
Erdogan continues to be lionised across more conservative swathes of Turkey for unshackling religious restrictions and bringing modern homes and jobs to millions of people through construction and state investment.
Turkey is now filled with hospitals and interconnected with airports and highways that stimulate trade and give the vast country a more inclusive feel.
He empowered conservative women by enabling them to stay veiled in school and in civil service -- a right that did not exist in the secular state created from the Ottoman Empire's ashes in 1923.
And he won early support from Turkey's long-repressed Kurdish minority by seeking a political solution to their armed struggle for an independent state.
But his equally passionate detractors point to a more ruthless streak that emerged with the violent clampdown on protests in 2013 -- and became even more apparent with sweeping purges he unleashed after the failed 2016 coup attempt.
Erdogan turned against the Kurds and jailed or stripped tens of thousands of people of their state jobs on oblique "terror" charges that sent chills through Turkish society.
Polls show younger voters who have no memories of the corruption and economic crises that ravaged Turkey before Erdogan's rise preferring Kilicdaroglu by a two-to-one margin.
- Democratic traditions -
Erdogan's biggest problems started when he decided to defy the rules of economics by slashing interest rates to fight inflation in 2021.
The lira crashed and inflation hit an eye-popping 85 percent since his experiment began.
Millions lost their savings and fell into deep debt.
Polls show the economy worrying Turks more than any other issue -- a point not lost on Kilicdaroglu.
The retired civil servant pledges to restore economic order and bring in vast sums from Western investors who fled the chaos of Erdogan's more recent rule.
Kilicdaroglu's party will send out 300,000 monitors to Turkey's 50,000 polling stations to guarantee a fair outcome on election day.
A Western diplomatic source pointed to Turkey's strong tradition of respecting election results.
Erdogan's own supporters turned against him when the Turkish leader tried to annul the opposition's victory in 2019 mayoral elections in Istanbul.
But the source observed a note of worry among Erdogan's rank and file.
"For the first time, (ruling party) deputies are openly evoking the possibility of defeat," the source said.
bur-zak/pvh
Dmitry ZAKS
Sat, May 6, 2023
Erdogan unshackled religious restrictions, allowing veiled women to study and work
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan next Sunday puts his two-decade legacy on the line in a knife-edge vote against a powerful alliance built on anger over economic hardship and his authoritarian turn.
The 69-year-old has become one of Turkey's most important and divisive leaders since his Islamic-rooted party ended half a century of secular rule and launched an era of social transformation.
Turkey became a strategic player with a vibrant economy and a modern army of drones that shifted battlefields in wars stretching from Libya to Ukraine.
Erdogan's global stature soared when he helped stem Europe's migrant crisis in 2016 -- and then plunged when he unleashed a crackdown on dissent later that same year.
He enters one of the biggest elections of Turkey's modern era with his popularity weighed down by a crippling cost-of-living crisis and the social aftershocks of a February earthquake that claimed more than 50,000 lives.
The real possibility of defeat has seen Erdogan defiantly turn to sharply polarising themes that have given the polls a powder keg feel.
He accuses the West of funding his "pro-LGBT" rivals and portrays himself as a defender of conservative values against attacks by foreign "terrorists".
The increasingly febrile atmosphere prompted opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu to ask supporters to stay home if they win.
"If we go out, there may be riots, armed people may take to the streets," the 74-year-old secular opposition leader warned.
- 'Political coup' -
The nation of 85 million appears as splintered as ever about whether Erdogan has done more harm than good in the only Muslim-majority country of the NATO defence bloc.
The entry of two minor candidates means that Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will likely face each other again in a runoff on May 28.
But some of Erdogan's more hawkish ministers are sounding warnings about Western efforts to undermine Turkey's might through the polls.
The parliamentary and presidential polls will see Erdogan face a six-party alliance that crosses Turkey's vast political spectrum and includes some of his former allies.
Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu has repeatedly referred to US President Joe Biden's 2019 suggestion that Washington should embolden the opposition "to take on and defeat Erdogan".
"July 15 was their actual coup attempt," Soylu said of a failed 2016 military putsch that Erdogan blamed on a US-based Muslim preacher.
"And May 14 is their political coup attempt."
- Splintered society -
Erdogan continues to be lionised across more conservative swathes of Turkey for unshackling religious restrictions and bringing modern homes and jobs to millions of people through construction and state investment.
Turkey is now filled with hospitals and interconnected with airports and highways that stimulate trade and give the vast country a more inclusive feel.
He empowered conservative women by enabling them to stay veiled in school and in civil service -- a right that did not exist in the secular state created from the Ottoman Empire's ashes in 1923.
And he won early support from Turkey's long-repressed Kurdish minority by seeking a political solution to their armed struggle for an independent state.
But his equally passionate detractors point to a more ruthless streak that emerged with the violent clampdown on protests in 2013 -- and became even more apparent with sweeping purges he unleashed after the failed 2016 coup attempt.
Erdogan turned against the Kurds and jailed or stripped tens of thousands of people of their state jobs on oblique "terror" charges that sent chills through Turkish society.
Polls show younger voters who have no memories of the corruption and economic crises that ravaged Turkey before Erdogan's rise preferring Kilicdaroglu by a two-to-one margin.
- Democratic traditions -
Erdogan's biggest problems started when he decided to defy the rules of economics by slashing interest rates to fight inflation in 2021.
The lira crashed and inflation hit an eye-popping 85 percent since his experiment began.
Millions lost their savings and fell into deep debt.
Polls show the economy worrying Turks more than any other issue -- a point not lost on Kilicdaroglu.
The retired civil servant pledges to restore economic order and bring in vast sums from Western investors who fled the chaos of Erdogan's more recent rule.
Kilicdaroglu's party will send out 300,000 monitors to Turkey's 50,000 polling stations to guarantee a fair outcome on election day.
A Western diplomatic source pointed to Turkey's strong tradition of respecting election results.
Erdogan's own supporters turned against him when the Turkish leader tried to annul the opposition's victory in 2019 mayoral elections in Istanbul.
But the source observed a note of worry among Erdogan's rank and file.
"For the first time, (ruling party) deputies are openly evoking the possibility of defeat," the source said.
bur-zak/pvh
Mon, May 8, 2023
By Ali Kucukgocmen
ISTANBUL, May 8 (Reuters) - Istanbul barber Hakim Ekinci, a long-time supporter of Tayyip Erdogan, won't be voting for the president next Sunday, blaming his economic policies for eroding Turks' purchasing power and leaving many unable to afford even basic foodstuff.
Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted AK Party were able to maintain their voter base, made up mainly of lower-income, conservative Muslim Turks, thanks to strong economic growth in the first 10 years of his rule.
But a cost-of-living crisis sparked by Erdogan's unorthodox economic programme over the past 1-1/2 years has eroded his popularity, posing the biggest electoral challenge to his 20-year hold on power.
Some polls show Erdogan trailing his main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu ahead of Sunday's first round vote - although the gap has recently narrowed. The parliamentary race remains on a razor edge, with the opposition seen potentially clinching a narrow majority.
"We used to be able to buy three to four bags of groceries for 150-200 lira ($7.7-$10). My wife and I could hardly carry them. Now we can barely fill two bags," said Ekinci, 63, pausing to clip a customer's hair in his salon in Istanbul's Besiktas district.
"I'd say those responsible are the ones governing us. I think it is the wrong decisions they have taken. I used to be an AKP supporter but I'm not thinking of voting for them."
Ekinci's views are representative of millions of Turks, who have had to deal with runaway inflation for years. Food prices surged 54% year-on-year in April, with headline inflation dropping to 43.7% after peaking in October at 85.5%, the highest under Erdogan's rule.
Annual inflation has remained in double digits for nearly all of the five years since general elections in 2018. It began to surge after a currency crisis in late 2021, sparked by a series of interest rate cuts, in line with Erdogan's unorthodox views.
Ekinci said he began to question his support for the president and the AKP due to economic reasons shortly after the 2018 elections and made a definite decision not to vote for them after the currency crisis in 2021.
The Turkish lira lost 44% in 2021 and 30% in 2022. It has shed 76% under Erdogan's second term as president, marked by several currency crises due to unorthodox policies, geopolitical developments such as the Ukraine war and disputes between Ankara and Washington.
"The exchange rate is uncontrollable. We can't afford anything. Nothing they said has held, therefore they do not inspire any confidence," Ekinci said.
WORDS AND ACTION
The barber works by himself after having to lay off his two staff and said he cannot secure any bank loans despite the rate cuts as authorities limit consumer loans to anchor inflation. His foreign currency loans also multiplied in lira terms as the currency fell.
But many AKP voters still believe only Erdogan can fix the economy, or blame other factors for its current state. Istanbul resident Halime Duman said people raising prices to make bigger profits were to blame for the soaring cost of living. "(Erdogan) can solve it with a flick of his wrist," she said, taking a break from shopping at a farmers' market in central Istanbul. The opposition, including Kilicdaroglu's opposition alliance, is all talk, in her opinion.
"They don't take action," she said.
Birol Baskan, an author and political analyst not affiliated with any party, said even "hardcore" Erdogan supporters don't deny that the economy is not doing as well as it did earlier in his rule.
"The reason why this party kept winning was because it delivered to voters certain material benefits. This is the first time that magic seems not to be working because of the economy, because of the high inflation (and) increasing cost of living."
"It badly hurt people's pocket and that's why I guess winning this election is no longer so assured."
'NOTHING BUT HUNGER'
Some voters are not confident that the opposition would immediately alleviate economic concerns either. Talat Gul, a marble mason, has never voted for the AKP or its allies. He currently sees "nothing but hunger" around him, but doubts things will quickly change for the better if the opposition wins.
"They have created in the last 21 years a Turkey that cannot be changed. It will take 20 years to recover, whoever comes to power. But I just want (Erdogan) to go," he said, walking around the farmers' market.
Ekinci, the barber, has yet to decide whom to vote for among the three candidates standing against Erdogan. "(Kilicdaroglu) may be an honest person... but they have not announced anything to convince me," he said.
"I want the dollar exchange rate to decline (after the elections). I want the price of petrol to fall. I want inflation to fall," Ekinci said.
"I want to go back to my life of five or six years ago. I want to be able to go on a picnic, travel abroad." ($1 = 19.4961 liras) (Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen; Additional reporting by Jonathan Spicer and Birsen Altayli; Editing by Susan Fenton)
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