Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice,
USA TODAY
Updated Thu, November 2, 2023
Hurricane Otis shocked even experts with its surprising explosion from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 12 hours last week as it approached Acapulco, Mexico and made landfall on Oct. 25. The storm killed at least 46 people and caused billions in damage.
Its unexpected and extreme transition from 70 mph winds to 165 mph winds raises crucial questions about how forecast models flubbed, the increasing risk of hurricanes rapidly intensifying into major storms more often, the degree to which global warming is fueling that intensification and what all of this means for millions in hurricane-prone regions.
In an era when potential tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean attract headlines even as they depart western Africa, Otis did the unthinkable. The tiny but devastating storm slammed into Mexico's Pacific Coast with little warning that it would bring some of the highest winds in the country's history.
The storm's high winds – with gusts of up to more than 180 mph – damaged more than 220,000 structures, especially high-rises, the Associated Press reported. After the storm, the city was cut off for more than a day, AP reported, in part, because the lack of warning prevented officials from pre-staging resources.
Less than 12 hours warning for a storm of such magnitude is “a nightmare,” said Kerry Emanuel, a meteorologist and climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
"It’s a perfect storm of a problem," Emanuel said. "If the atmosphere had been slightly different, this would have never happened. We would have had a tropical storm that wouldn't have been a big deal."
It's a problem many meteorologists and climate scientists say is happening more often in the warming world.
How the National Hurricane Center forecast evolved
At 10 p.m. on Oct. 23, Tropical Storm Otis had 50 mph winds, with features that could be associated with a rapid intensification in wind speeds but computer models didn't indicate it would happen.
By 4 a.m., winds were up to 65 mph. Wind shear had decreased and one model showed a 1 in 4 chance of rapid strengthening over 24 hours. The official forecast – warning the storm was likely to become a hurricane and strengthen before landfall – was still outside the guidance from the center’s most reliable models, wrote the author of that forecast, Daniel Brown.
At 10 a.m. on Oct. 24, the center warned further upward adjustments in intensity were possible, but the incredible transition over the next 13 hours took everyone by surprise.
◾ 1 p.m. – Otis reached hurricane strength with 80 mph winds.
◾ 2 p.m. – The center had its first and only reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, which provided key information and warned Otis was almost a major hurricane with winds near 110 mph.
◾ 10 p.m. – The winds had reached almost 160 mph, a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane.
◾ 11 p.m. – Otis neared the busy tourist region known as Mexico’s Riviera with deadly 165 mph sustained winds and higher gusts.
Around 1:25 p.m. Otis slammed into the coast, its diminutive size both a blessing and a curse. It was easier for the storm to rapidly intensify in the exceptionally warm waters offshore but it curtailed the reach of the extreme winds that pummeled buildings and whipped up a storm surge that battered the coast.
Updated Thu, November 2, 2023
Hurricane Otis shocked even experts with its surprising explosion from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 12 hours last week as it approached Acapulco, Mexico and made landfall on Oct. 25. The storm killed at least 46 people and caused billions in damage.
Its unexpected and extreme transition from 70 mph winds to 165 mph winds raises crucial questions about how forecast models flubbed, the increasing risk of hurricanes rapidly intensifying into major storms more often, the degree to which global warming is fueling that intensification and what all of this means for millions in hurricane-prone regions.
In an era when potential tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean attract headlines even as they depart western Africa, Otis did the unthinkable. The tiny but devastating storm slammed into Mexico's Pacific Coast with little warning that it would bring some of the highest winds in the country's history.
The storm's high winds – with gusts of up to more than 180 mph – damaged more than 220,000 structures, especially high-rises, the Associated Press reported. After the storm, the city was cut off for more than a day, AP reported, in part, because the lack of warning prevented officials from pre-staging resources.
Less than 12 hours warning for a storm of such magnitude is “a nightmare,” said Kerry Emanuel, a meteorologist and climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
"It’s a perfect storm of a problem," Emanuel said. "If the atmosphere had been slightly different, this would have never happened. We would have had a tropical storm that wouldn't have been a big deal."
It's a problem many meteorologists and climate scientists say is happening more often in the warming world.
How the National Hurricane Center forecast evolved
At 10 p.m. on Oct. 23, Tropical Storm Otis had 50 mph winds, with features that could be associated with a rapid intensification in wind speeds but computer models didn't indicate it would happen.
By 4 a.m., winds were up to 65 mph. Wind shear had decreased and one model showed a 1 in 4 chance of rapid strengthening over 24 hours. The official forecast – warning the storm was likely to become a hurricane and strengthen before landfall – was still outside the guidance from the center’s most reliable models, wrote the author of that forecast, Daniel Brown.
At 10 a.m. on Oct. 24, the center warned further upward adjustments in intensity were possible, but the incredible transition over the next 13 hours took everyone by surprise.
◾ 1 p.m. – Otis reached hurricane strength with 80 mph winds.
◾ 2 p.m. – The center had its first and only reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, which provided key information and warned Otis was almost a major hurricane with winds near 110 mph.
◾ 10 p.m. – The winds had reached almost 160 mph, a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane.
◾ 11 p.m. – Otis neared the busy tourist region known as Mexico’s Riviera with deadly 165 mph sustained winds and higher gusts.
Around 1:25 p.m. Otis slammed into the coast, its diminutive size both a blessing and a curse. It was easier for the storm to rapidly intensify in the exceptionally warm waters offshore but it curtailed the reach of the extreme winds that pummeled buildings and whipped up a storm surge that battered the coast.
A man crosses a highway blocked by a landslide triggered by Hurricane Otis near Acapulco, Mexico, on Oct. 25.
Analyzing the storm
Hundreds of other storms with forecasts similar to Otis ”didn’t do what Otis did, so the question is what happened?” asked Clark Evans, a hurricane model expert, professor and chair of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “None of the field’s state-of-the-art guidance suggested anything close to what occurred was even possible."
The hurricane center, as well as the research and modeling communities, will study Otis for months to come. Several factors may have contributed, including warmer than normal waters and upper level winds.
It didn't help that the hurricane models had less data available than with Atlantic storms, where repeated hurricane hunter flights take place, with additional information from the dropsondes and drones the flights deploy, as well as a more dense network of weather buoys and land-based radars.
Hurricane hunter reconnaissance flights aren’t typically sent into tropical storms in the Pacific, Brown said. It’s a long trip and the aircraft don’t have preestablished staging locations like they do in the Caribbean.
As a regional meteorological center, the hurricane center names and forecasts tropical cyclones for 29 countries across the Caribbean, Central America and the northern shores of South America under an agreement with the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations. Individual countries are responsible for distributing the forecasts to their residents and visitors, however the U.S. has agreed to that responsibility for Haiti.
What is rapid intensification?
Rapid intensity is defined as an increase of at least 35 mph in wind speeds over 24 hours. Otis experienced nearly three times that. Forecasters look for signals of rapid intensification in a storm’s structure, and the surrounding environment, but it can be difficult to forecast the timing and magnitude of such strengthening, Brown said.
All of the Category 4 and 5 storms that struck the U.S. over the past 100 years were tropical storms just three days before landfall, and all went through rapid strengthening within roughly 50 hours of landfall, he said. "Andrew, Charley, Michael, Ida and Ian are all on that list."
More than half of all the hurricanes with winds of more than 150 mph to make landfall in the United States over more than 100 years occurred in the last 19.
Hurricane Otis made landfall along the Pacific coast of Mexico on Oct. 25 near Acapulco with 165 mph winds.
Why does warmer water produce stronger storms?
The ocean Otis moved over was “exceptionally warm,” with surface temperatures in the mid-80s, up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal for this time of year, Evans said. Under the right conditions with winds and moisture, water temperatures were “more than sufficient to support a hurricane of category 5 intensity.”
Warm water is to hurricanes as dry brush is to a wildfire, a key source of fuel and energy.
"Think of it like your morning cup of coffee – for a hurricane, warm ocean waters act like the caffeine in our morning coffee that helps get us going," said Andra Garner, a climate scientist at Rowan University in New Jersey. Abnormally warm ocean water is "kind of like an extra shot of caffeine in the coffee, providing lots of energy for the storm."
Emanuel says it's possible water temperatures in the ocean just beneath the surface also may have played a role. Because the Pacific has more fresh water, which is lighter than saltier water, he said, it's possible Otis was churning up hotter water from below, which would let the storm intensify at the maximum possible rate.
The ocean Otis moved over was “exceptionally warm,” with surface temperatures in the mid-80s, up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal for this time of year, Evans said. Under the right conditions with winds and moisture, water temperatures were “more than sufficient to support a hurricane of category 5 intensity.”
Warm water is to hurricanes as dry brush is to a wildfire, a key source of fuel and energy.
"Think of it like your morning cup of coffee – for a hurricane, warm ocean waters act like the caffeine in our morning coffee that helps get us going," said Andra Garner, a climate scientist at Rowan University in New Jersey. Abnormally warm ocean water is "kind of like an extra shot of caffeine in the coffee, providing lots of energy for the storm."
Emanuel says it's possible water temperatures in the ocean just beneath the surface also may have played a role. Because the Pacific has more fresh water, which is lighter than saltier water, he said, it's possible Otis was churning up hotter water from below, which would let the storm intensify at the maximum possible rate.
This illustration from the University of Miami shows how Hurricane Otis traversed over a pocket of very warm waters in the Pacific Ocean before reaching the coast of Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane.
Is climate change causing storms like Otis to rapidly intensify?
Though hurricane experts and climate scientists debate whether any individual storm can be linked to climate change, many say the warming climate is contributing to warmer ocean temperatures, such as the unprecedented ocean heat waves this summer, and to the rapid intensification of storms like Otis.
Several peer-reviewed studies have shown evidence of an increasing probability of such events, and that these storms have a human-induced fingerprint on them, said Jim Kossin, a science adviser to the First Street Foundation who has studied storms for decades.
“There is no question that ocean temperatures have increased due to global warming, and there is no question that this warming allows hurricanes to get stronger and to rapidly intensify,” Kossin told USA TODAY. Scientists are more confident that events like Otis' rapid intensification become more likely under climate change, he said.
The world's oceans have absorbed about 90% of the excess warming that has occurred due to human-caused climate change, and the global average sea surface temperature has risen by more than one degree Fahrenheit since the 1980s, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
That same report projected with "high confidence" that the proportion of tropical cyclones that reach Category 4 and 5 levels around the globe would increase with climate warming.
In the Atlantic, five storms underwent rapid intensification in 2021, and three this year – Franklin, Idalia and Lee. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Patricia broke records in 2015 for rapid intensification. Otis broke that record.
Hurricanes and climate change Is climate change fueling massive hurricanes in the Atlantic? Here's what science says.
A recent study led by Garner concluded Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to rapidly intensify from minor hurricanes to powerful and catastrophic.
While her work focused on the Atlantic, Garner said certain physical factors "are very favorable for hurricane formation, regardless of where you are in the world." Warm ocean waters are one of those factors.
"I think what we saw with Hurricane Otis lines up pretty well with what my research suggests that we might expect in a warmer climate," Garner said. "That increased heat in our oceans is energy for storms, and it has the potential to allow storms to strengthen more quickly than they might have with cooler ocean temperatures in the past."
However, both Emanuel and Tom Knutson, a climate scientist with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, said more research is needed to determine how much human-related changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols may be contributing to the intensification of Atlantic hurricanes.
What's the takeaway?
"Otis illustrates why people in hurricane prone areas need to be vigilant and also prepared,” Brown said. It’s important to keep supplies on hand throughout hurricane season and have a plan for what you will do if a hurricane approaches, he said. "You can act much faster when there’s a threat."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Otis shocked forecasters with Category 5 Acapulco landfall
205-mph wind gust from Mexico’s Hurricane Otis ranks as 5th highest in world
Chris Oberholtz
FOX NEWS
Updated Thu, November 2, 2023
ACAPULCO, Mexico – The world's fifth-highest wind gust on land was clocked at 205 mph as Hurricane Otis battered Mexico last month, researchers discovered.
Otis struck the country's southern Pacific coast near Acapulco on Oct. 25 at 1:25 a.m. CDT. It was classified as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph, making it the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on the Pacific side of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
SEE HURRICANE OTIS' WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO ACAPULCO, MEXICO THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGES
Updated Thu, November 2, 2023
ACAPULCO, Mexico – The world's fifth-highest wind gust on land was clocked at 205 mph as Hurricane Otis battered Mexico last month, researchers discovered.
Otis struck the country's southern Pacific coast near Acapulco on Oct. 25 at 1:25 a.m. CDT. It was classified as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph, making it the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on the Pacific side of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
SEE HURRICANE OTIS' WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO ACAPULCO, MEXICO THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGES
Residents walk past debris in the aftermath of hurricane Otis in Acapulco, Guerrero State, Mexico, on October 27, 2023.
Following the storm, the National Tidal Service of the National Autonomous University of Mexico said it sent two technicians to Acapulco to recover hurricane data from its two monitoring stations in the city.
"Considering the trajectory and size of Otis, it was of utmost importance to recover the information, which was practically the record of the center of the hurricane," the agency said.
The record-breaking burst of wind was recorded at 12:40 a.m., according to the agency, which puts Otis very close to the Eastern Pacific record set by Hurricane Patricia off the coast of Mexico in October 2015. Patrica's peak intensity over the ocean was estimated at 185 knots (213 mph), according to the NHC.
The world's highest wind gust on land of 253 mph was recorded in April 1996 at Barrow Island, Australia, during Tropical Cyclone Oliva.
WATCH: WOMEN SHIELD CHILDREN IN BATHROOM AS HURRICANE OTIS’ FEROCIOUS WINDS HOWL OUTSIDE ACAPULCO RESORT
FOX Weather hurricane specialist said both the wind speed at landfall and the gust measurement will be evaluated.
"Otis clearly weakened in the hours before landfall, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was a notch weaker," Norcross said. "And the instrument that measured the gust will be evaluated. Quite often, anemometers are not well calibrated at those high wind speeds, and also the location will be checked to see if that influenced the measurements."
The devastating winds from Otis resulted in extensive destruction, causing damage to 80% of Acapulco's hotels, according to government officials. The storm was followed by power and internet outages, as well as citywide looting. Severe damage also shuttered commercial and military airports of Acapulco.
‘ACAPULCO HAS BEEN DESTROYED’: HURRICANE OTIS SURVIVORS RECOVER FROM HISTORIC STORM
As of last check, the death toll has risen to at least 46 people, with nearly 60 people still missing, the Mexican government said.
Days following landfall, rescue crews were unable to reach the city to provide aid due to mudslides in mountainous terrain. The deployed 10,000 troops lacked the necessary tools to clear the roads obstructed by mud and fallen trees, the Associated Press reported.
According to the NHC, Otis’ peak intensification rate was 110 mph in 24 hours, the second-highest recorded rate in the Western Hemisphere, behind only Patricia in October 2015.
In the photo below, the National Tidal Service provided a before-and-after comparison of its weather station located in Acapulco Bay. The weather station was the only structure that remained standing after the storm, as the entire perimeter fence had been destroyed.
HOW DID HURRICANE OTIS' RECORD INTENSIFICATION CATCH ADVANCED FORECAST MODELS BY SURPRISE?
The Mexican Red Cross has delivered 75 tons of humanitarian aid to those affected by the disaster, while more than 1,600 people are still staying in shelters in both Acapulco and Coyuca de BenÃtez.
Original article source: 205-mph wind gust from Mexico’s Hurricane Otis ranks as 5th highest in world
Stunning satellite images show the damage to Acapulco from Category 5 Hurricane Otis
Terry Castleman
Tue, October 31, 2023 at 3:59 PM MDT·2 min read
12
A damaged zone in the aftermath of Hurricane Otis in Acapulco on Oct. 29, 2023. (Felix Marquez / Associated Press)
As officials continue to sort through the wreckage of last week's devastating hurricane in Acapulco, new images show the scale of the disaster.
Hurricane Otis arrived in the early morning of Oct. 25, bringing rains and 165-mph winds, resulting in the most powerful storm ever recorded on Mexico's Pacific coast.
By Tuesday morning, the official death toll was at 47, a figure expected to rise in the coming days.
The satellite images from Maxar Technologies show widespread damage to neighborhoods, hotels and marinas after the Category 5 storm.
The image below shows Acapulco Bay on Oct. 4 on the left.
On the right is the same area on Oct. 26, the day after the storm arrived. The image shows significant damage to buildings and flooding.
Read more: Desperation after Acapulco hurricane: 'We no longer have food or water, and no one is helping us'
Scientists say Otis was the fastest-growing hurricane ever observed in the eastern Pacific Ocean. As oceans warm because of human-driven climate change, similarly super-charged hurricanes are likely to occur more frequently, they say.
In the days after the storm, a quarter-million homes were without electricity, and food, gasoline and clean water were in short supply. With little aid distribution and few if any shops open for business, many in the city of nearly 1 million resorted to pillaging shattered storefronts, according to reports by The Times.
The image below shows Acapulco's La Poza neighborhood, which sits southeast of the bay and abuts a lagoon, on Oct. 4.
By Oct. 26, much of the neighborhood had been inundated with brown floodwaters. Homes and roads alike were underwater.
Read more: Hurricane Otis stuns Mexico, slamming Acapulco with ‘brutal’ Category 5 strength and cutting off contact
Disaster modeler Enki Research predicts that the economic impact may top $15 billion, and some locals worry that recovery of the coastal resort city, once favored by Hollywood stars but in recent years tarnished by drug violence, could drag on for years.
Many of the deaths in Acapulco appeared to be due to the sinking of 33 boats during the storm, the Mexican navy said Tuesday.
The image below shows several marinas filled with boats in Acapulco Bay on Oct. 4.
On Oct. 26, many of the marinas were visibly damaged and most of the boats were gone.
In previous hurricanes in Acapulco, most of the dead were swept away by flooding on land. But with Otis, a significant number appear to have died at sea. Residents have said that some crews had either chosen or been ordered to stay aboard to guard their craft.
Times staff writers Patrick J. McDonnell, Kathe Linthicum, Leila Miller and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
Mexico announces recovery plan for hurricane-hit Acapulco
AFP
Wed, November 1, 2023 at 11:45 AM MDT·1 min read
Hurricane Otis left a trail of destruction in Mexico's beachside city of Acapulco (SALVADOR VALADEZ)
Mexico's government announced Wednesday an aid and reconstruction plan worth nearly $3.5 billion for victims of a hurricane that devastated the beachside city of Acapulco.
"Together we will very soon be able to put the beautiful and nostalgic port of Acapulco back on its feet," President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said at his daily news conference.
Otis smashed into Acapulco a week ago as a scale-topping Category 5 hurricane packing winds of 165 miles (270 kilometers) per hour.
The storm left a trail of destruction and at least 46 people dead, with 58 others unaccounted for.
The 61.3-billion-peso recovery plan includes the delivery of groceries to nearly 250,000 affected families for three months, as well as cleaning, painting and rehabilitation of damaged homes, Lopez Obrador said.
The government will provide interest-free loans for small businesses and a budget for improving urban services such as water, drainage and lighting.
There will also be support for hotels and money to rehabilitate roads connecting Acapulco with Mexico City and surrounding municipalities.
"We have a budget to finance all these needs," Lopez Obrador said.
"We do not consider allocating these resources as an expense, but rather an investment," he added.
Otis severely damaged or destroyed many buildings and led to power and communication outages, though services have been restored in several areas.
Supermarket shelves were quickly stripped bare in a wave of looting.
The government said that it would deploy National Guard troops to prevent robberies, after residents with barricades and machetes were seen guarding neighborhoods from looters.
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