James Crisp
Sun, 31 December 2023
EU stars falling
Geert Wilders, Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni and Viktor Orban will lead their hard-Right parties to victory in next year’s European parliament elections, polls have predicted.
Their parties are expected to be the largest in the Netherlands, France, Italy and Hungary after the EU-wide vote in June, which is seen as a battle to end Brussels overreach into national sovereignty.
Nationalist parties from Poland, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Slovakia and Cyprus are also expected to return the most, or equal most, MEPs to Brussels and Strasbourg.
More than a third of all MEPs are predicted to be at the very least critical of the EU in a European parliament that has long been dominated by pro-EU groups – up from around 25 per cent a decade ago, excluding the UK.
Within that group, hard-Right parties, firmly opposed to Brussels and often anti-migration, are predicted to make gains of up to 25 per cent of MEPs, compared to just 11 per cent a decade ago.
Nigel Farage led UKIP and the Brexit Party to victories in European parliament elections in 2014, a breakthrough year for eurosceptic parties, and 2019.
“UKIP and the Brexit parties were ahead of their time. The populist surge that we are going to see in the European elections next spring will mark the beginning of the end of the EU in its current centralised form,” said Mr Farage.
“Gosh, I could have led a big group!,” he joked, referring to the pan-EU alliances formed by like-minded parties in the parliament.
Viktor Orban chose Judit Varga, his former minister of Justice, to take the fight to Brussels after clashing with the EU over the rule of law and migration.
Ms Varga said she will fight the campaign to show European voters that there is an alternative, and to battle for a conservative majority in the parliament next year.
“What I’m fighting is the hypocrisy of the EU, the double standards of the EU. And it’s not against, but it’s for the European future,” she added.
“A new Europe is possible,” said Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy, who leads a pan-EU alliance of hard-Right parties in the European parliament after Mr Wilders won an unexpected Dutch general election victory in November.
Soft or virulently eurosceptic parties will be the largest, or joint largest, in 10 of the 27 EU member states, according to national polling analysed by Europe Elects.
Half of all MEPs returned from France, Italy, Cyprus and Hungary are expected to be from a eurosceptic party.
There will still be a large majority of pro-EU MEPs. However, the increase in hard-Right MEPs could have a real impact on EU legislation, especially if they vote with the influential and establishment centre-Right.
MEPs have the power to amend bills in negotiations with EU governments across the majority of European laws.
The hard-Right parties are likely to join one of two eurosceptic groups. If they band together to form political groups, they qualify for more EU funding and speaking time in the parliament.
The expected winners include Poland’s Law and Justice, which was ousted by the pro-EU Donald Tusk after eight years in power following elections in October.
While it was the single-largest party, it did not have enough support for a majority, but is set to win the European elections.
Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, which is kept from national power by a coalition of establishment parties, is set to win in the EU’s own backyard.
So is the Sweden Democrats, which is propping up a Right-wing coalition in Stockholm, which has adopted anti-migrant policies in return for its support.
The other expected winners include Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Viktor Orban’s Fidesz and Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party.
Mr Wilders is still attempting to form a coalition government but Ms Meloni and Mr Orban are already prime ministers, which grants them access to European Council summits.
Heads of state and government in the council give political direction to the European Commission and will decide on the next leaders of the major Brussels institutions after the June election.
Slovakia’s Robert Fico, a pro-Russian Left-wing eurosceptic nationalist, bolstered the hard-Right in the influential council after winning elections earlier this year.
Hard-Right parties are predicted to make big gains in a number of national elections across Europe next year.
There are elections in Austria, Lithuania, Croatia, Romania, Portugal and Belgium in 2024.
In 2023, the average proportion of national parliaments filled with hard-Right parties hit its highest level since 2010 at around 14.3 per cent. Based on current polling, this will be exceeded in 2024.
In Austria, the hard-Right Freedom Party has been leading the polls for months. A five-poll average currently has the pro-Russian party at 31 per cent.
In Belgium, Vlaams Belang is currently expected to see its seats increase by five to a record 24, making it the largest in the chamber for deputies, even if it is unlikely to be part of a future coalition.
In Portugal, Chega is currently polling at more than twice its vote share in the previous election at 16.4 per cent. It is expected to remain the third-largest party but narrow the gap on establishment parties.
The Alliance for the Union of Romanians is polling at 18 per cent – twice its 2020 vote share.
“Clearly the result of the recent Dutch elections should be a warning for the EU,” said Elizabeth Kuiper, associate director at the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels.
“If more populist parties gain momentum there is a risk that EU countries will become more inward-looking, and positions will shift due to changes in government.
“Clearly the mobilisation of voters expressing political discontent needs to be addressed at the EU level in the years to come.”
She added that Brussels would have to prove it could solve social problems, including a fair transition to net zero, to prevent more populist victories.
“Populist parties will present themselves as the saviours of the welfare state and turn their back on the EU,” said Ms Kuiper.
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