Climate TRACE Detects Underreported Soaring Emissions
COP28, the UN Conference of the Parties in oil-rich Dubai currently underway will not resolve the issue of oil and gas companies agreeing to slow down oil production. To the contrary, all signals point to an increase according to formal plans already laid out by the industry, as stated by the International Energy Agency. Reuters November 2023 headline says it all: “Global Fossil Fuel Production Plans Far Exceed Climate Targets”.
Greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rip roar, snort, huff and puff higher ever higher post COP28. It’s guaranteed. The oil companies insist upon it. And a new kid on the block named Climate TRACE, launched July 2020, will be monitoring them with remarkable accuracy.
According to a stunning report released at COP28 by Climate TRACE (Independent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tracking) emissions have been soaring well beyond official statistics reported by countries. Needless to say, this is really awful news for a global climate system that’s already gone bonkers because of excessive levels of greenhouse gases. And, of course, it can only mean that we’ll continue to live in a Bonkers World gone crazy with off-the-charts rip-snorting craziness like temperature changes forcing migrants and nature’s resources northward bound as the equatorial turns barren and useless.
“IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which advises the UN) has understated global warming in the pipeline and understated fossil fuel emissions in the pipeline via lack of realism in the Integrated Assessment Models that IPCC uses for climate projections.” (James Hansen, “A Miracle Will Occur” Is Not Sensible Climate Policy”, December 7, 2023.)
And, of course, there’s this: “According to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, 75% of Spain’s land is battling climatic conditions that could lead to desertification… And that means soils which are unable to retain water or organic matter, that cannot support crops or nourish livestock—which is a matter of huge concern in a country where agriculture accounts for annual exports of some 60 billion euros ($66 billion).” (“Spain Worries Over ‘Lifeless Land’ Amid Creeping Desertification”, Phys.org, August 1, 2023.)
All of which is the end result, in part, of limp Saudi feudalism, and affiliated feudalistic monarchies, dictating policy in a modern overcrowded world (more on this to follow).
Thanks to Climate TRACE, we now know a lot more about global emissions because of its pinpoint accuracy, who’s cheating, who’s not reporting, who’s underreporting, uncovering smoke screens across the globe. And better yet, for the first time ever, climate advocates… Yes, people like you! … have direct access to personally follow worldwide emissions with an accuracy that is simply out-of-this-world wonderful. Climate TRACE is a spectacular newcomer for measurement of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, and it’s open to the public, simply click on the link: Climate TRACE.
Meantime. at COP28 the overall situation has gotten a bit testy, in fact, quarrelsome. Not only has Sultan Al-Jaber, the president of this year’s COP, been caught red-handed with his hand jammed down into the cookie jar, but it should also be noted that one country at COP28 can veto an agreement by all of the nations. If that sounds ridiculous, a country holding the world hostage, indeed, it is obscenely ridiculous because it allows one outlaw country to dictate terms to the world. And it happened!
The negotiations rely upon “consensus from all countries,” but Saudi Arabia has already flipped the bird at the delegates by publicly notifying them of its intention to block any restrictions on oil production. The Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said “Absolutely Not” to any language coming out of the conference that relates to fossil fuel “phase down.” The American Petroleum Institute, amidst a swimming mass of 1,300 fossil fuel lobbyists (setting a COP record) claims: “A fossil fuel phaseout is misguided.” (The New York Times)
With only two words spoken, Saudi Arabia now rules the world.
Unless, somehow, someway, Al Gore successfully manages to change the rules for next year by bringing together advocates to push for reform that allows decisions to be made by a “super majority of countries” rather than consensus. It’s the only way to stop a country stuck in traditions of the Middle Ages (500-1400) from ruling, and ruining, the 21st century. Does that make sense?
Meanwhile, Climate TRACE has unveiled countries that have been issuing inaccurate emissions figures, specifically China, India, and the United States as under-reporters. Since 2015 the biggest increases in global greenhouse gas emissions have occurred at those three that fail to accurately report.
“Electricity generation in China and India, and oil and gas production in the US, have produced the biggest increases in global greenhouse gas emissions since 2015, when the Paris climate agreement was signed, new data has shown.” (“Greenhouse Gas Emissions Soar – With China, US and India Most at Fault”, The Guardian, December 3, 2023.)
According to Climate TRACE’s release at COP28: DUBAI, UAE — 3 December 2023 — “Today, Climate TRACE published an inventory of unprecedented granularity that pinpoints nearly every major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around the world and provides independently produced estimates of how much each emits. Encompassing human-caused emissions from facilities — including power plants, steel mills, ships, and oil refineries — and other emitting activities — including fertilizer application, deforestation, and wildfires — Climate TRACE’s expanded database now tracks GHG emissions from more than 352 million assets, a 4,400x increase compared to the number of assets covered by the inventory last year. All Climate TRACE data are free and publicly available to help enable action and accountability at the massive scale necessary for global progress.”
Al Gore, one of the founders of Climate TRACE, claims the technology fills a vacuum devoid of accurate information by breaking down exact locations of emissions facility by facility on a worldwide basis. It’s a remarkably sophisticated tool for identifying emissions.
Under the Paris ’15 climate agreement, countries and companies agreed to report emissions on a regular basis. Climate TRACE has blown a hole a mile wide in some of those reports. For example, coal mines in China were found to be responsible for a large proportion of underreported methane emissions from 2021-22. And CO2 from international airline flights increased by an astounding 74%.
“Climate TRACE combines the power of AI and machine learning with satellite data to construct “pictures of the world we’ve never seen before. And it’s allowing us to make climate progress in a way some never believed possible.” (Gavin McCormick, co-founder).
Many climate scientists believe the only way forward to prevent more damage to life-sourcing ecosystems is complete cessation of fossil fuel production.
NYC, September 2023: 400 scientists signed a letter addressed to President Biden endorsing the demands of the March to End Fossil Fuels in NYC, September 17th, 2023: “On your first day in office, you issued an executive order pledging that it is ‘the policy of my administration to listen to the science’ in tackling the climate crisis… And yet, rather than ratchet down fossil fuels, your administration has approved drilling permits at a rate faster than the Trump administration, opened up huge swaths of land and ocean to leasing, expanded exports, approved new pipelines, and embraced industry greenwashing ploys like carbon capture, which further entrenches our reliance on fossil fuels.”
If the world community of climate science can retake control over its own destiny by stopping medieval nations like Saudi Arabia from ruining progress, there may be an outside chance of reducing the destructive impact of an already out of control climate system… maybe, but maybe not.
Meantime, build sea walls just in case.
West Antarctica looks assured of collapsing, but the timing is uncertain. See: Dr Kaitlin Naughten et al “Antarctic Ice Sheet Loss Acceleration – British Antarctic Survey”, interview by Nick Breeze, November 2023 on YouTube or read K. Naughten, et al, “Unavoidable Future Increase in West Antarctic Ice-Shelf Melting Over the Twenty-First Century”, Nature Climate Change, October 23, 2023.
Robert Hunziker (MA, economic history, DePaul University) is a freelance writer and environmental journalist whose articles have been translated into foreign languages and appeared in over 50 journals, magazines, and sites worldwide. He can be contacted at: rlhunziker@gmail.com. Read other articles by Robert.COP28: Where Fossil Fuel Industries Go to Gloat
The sequence of COP meetings, ostensibly a United Nations forum to discuss dramatic climate change measures in the face of galloping emissions, has now been shown for what it is: a luxurious, pampered bazaar for the very industries that fear a dip in their profits and ultimate obsolescence. Call it a drugs summit for narcotics distributors promoting clean-living; a convention for casino moguls promising to aid problem gamblers. The list of wicked analogies is endless.
Reading the material from the gathering that is known in its longer form as the United Nations Climate Change Conference, one could be forgiven for falling for the sweetened agitprop. We find, on the UN website explaining the role of COP28, that the forum is “where the world comes together to agree on ways to address the climate crisis, such as limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, helping vulnerable communities adapt to the effects of climate change, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.”
Then comes the boggling figure: 70,000 delegates will be mingling and haggling, including the parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “Business leaders, young people, climate scientists, Indigenous Peoples, journalists, and various other experts and stakeholders are also among the participants.”
The view from outside the conference is a matter of night and day. Fernando Racimo, evolutionary biologist and member of the activist group Scientist Rebellion, sums up the progress of ever bloating summitry in this field since 1995: “Almost 30 years of promises, of pledges,” he told Nature, “and yet carbon emissions continue to go up to even higher levels. As scientists, we’re recognizing this failure.”
In Dubai, where COP28 is being held, representatives from the coal, oil and gas industries have come out in numbers to talk about climate change. They, it would seem, are the business leaders and stakeholders who matter. And such representatives have every reason to be encouraged by the rich mockery of it all: the United Arab Emirates is a top league oil producer and member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
According to an analysis from the environmental Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition, 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists were granted access to the summit. “In a year when global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions shattered records, there has been an explosion of fossil fuel lobbyists heading to UN talks, with nearly four times more than were granted last year.”
The breakdown of the attendee figures makes for grim reading. In the first place, fossil fuel lobbyists have outdone the number delegates from climate vulnerable nations: the number there comes to a mere 1,509. In terms of country delegations, the fossil fuel group of participants is only outdone by Brazil, with 3,081 people.
In contrast, the numbers of scientist presents are minimal to the point of being invisible. Climate change activists, the young, and journalists serve in decorative and performative roles, the moralising priests who give the last rites before the execution.
The theme of the conference had already been set by COP president Sultan al-Jaber, who felt, in his vast wisdom, that he could simultaneously host the conference with high principle and still conduct his duties as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).
This, after all, presented a wonderful chance to gossip about climate goals in hazy terms while striking genuine fossil fuel deals with participating countries. This much was shown by leaked briefing documents to the BBC and the Centre for Climate Reporting (CCR).
The documents in question involve over 150 pages of briefings prepared by the COP28 team for meetings with Jaber and various interested parties held between July and October this year. They point to plans to raise matters of commercial interest with as many as 30 countries. The CCR confirms “that on at least one occasion a nation followed up on commercial discussions brought up in a meeting with Al Jaber; a source with knowledge of discussions also told CCR that Adnoc’s business interests were allegedly raised during a meeting with another country.”
The COP28 team did not deny using bilateral meetings related to the summit to discuss business matters. A spokesperson for the team was mightily indifferent in remarking that Jaber “holds a number of positions alongside his role as COP28 President-Designate. That is public knowledge. Private meetings are private, and we do not comment on them.”
The Sultan proved to be more direct, telling a news conference that such “allegations are false, not true, incorrect, are not accurate. And it’s an attempt to undermine the work of the COP28 presidency.” Jaber went on to promise that he had never seen “these talking points that they refer to or that I ever even used such talking points in my discussions.” No need for notes, then, when advancing the fossil fuel interests of country and industry.
Concerned parties are attempting to find various ways of protesting against a summit that has all the hallmarks of gross failure. Scientists and environmentalists are choosing to voice their disagreement in their respective countries, thereby avoiding any addition to the increasingly vast carbon footprint being left by COP28. As well they should: Dubai is, essentially, hosting an event that could be best described as a museum piece of human failings.
Currently, delegates are poring over a draft of the final agreement that proposes “an orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels”. What is just here is a fascinating question, given the lobbying by the fossil fuel advocates who have a rather eccentric notion of fairness. As Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Brazil’s state-run oil company Petrobras declared, “The energy transition will only be valid if it’s a fair transition.” The prospects for an even more grandiose, stage-managed failure, helped along by oil and gas, is in the offing.
With the figures of science essentially excluded from these hot air gatherings in favour of industries that see them as troubling nuisances best ignored, the prospect for local and domestic reform through informed activism becomes the only sensible approach. There are even heartening studies suggesting that climate protest can warm frigid public opinion, the only measure that really interests the vote getting politician. Unfortunate that this seems a last throw for much of humanity and the earth’s ecosystem.
Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: bkampmark@gmail.com. Read other articles by Binoy.
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