Sunday, December 22, 2024

Israel and Turkey Shape a New Syria From Their Borderlands

By Alisa Odenheimer and Selcan Hacaoglu
December 22, 2024 
BNNBLOOMBERG

(Institute for the Study of War a)

(Bloomberg) -- Syria’s leadership isn’t the only aspect of the country to be changing as a result of this month’s toppling of longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The blurring of its borders is also underway — from Israel to the southwest and Turkey to the north.

Israel’s military wasted no time advancing on Syria after Assad was overthrown by Islamist-led rebels two weeks ago, with troops moving eastward into a buffer zone established by a ceasefire between the two countries 50 years ago. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wary of a new threat after more than a year fighting Iran-backed groups Hamas and Hezbollah in the region.

“Israel will not permit jihadi groups to fill that vacuum and threaten Israeli communities,” Netanyahu’s office said last week. It described the deployment as temporary until a new Syrian administration — now led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, a former affiliate of Al-Qaeda — commits to the 1974 agreement.

Turkey has shown similar urgency in asserting its influence over a far greater portion of Syria, and US President-elect Donald Trump has called the country a key player in shaping the post-Assad political landscape.

One of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s key priorities is to push back Kurdish groups in the north with links to the PKK, an organization that’s long battled for an autonomous Kurdish region inside Turkey.


The Syrian National Army, a group funded and advised by Ankara, has seized two northwestern towns since late November from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish ally in the US’s fight against Islamic State. The SNA will now likely try to capture more territory, Turkish officials familiar with the matter said this week.

Erdogan’s ultimate aim is to create a buffer zone along the entire 900-kilometer (560-mile) Syria-Turkey border, though that goal looks hard to achieve in its entirety. Turkey says HTS supports the dismantling of Kurdish forces, though HTS hasn’t publicly commented.

Israel’s advance has extended its control of the Golan Heights — a piece of high ground that’s been a focus of global dispute since Israel seized it from Syria during a 1967 war.

Before the fall of Assad, Israel controlled about two thirds of the territory, giving its military a view of southern Syria between the border and the capital, Damascus, 60 kilometers away, enabling it to monitor troop movements. The Golan offers fertile land — Israelis grow grapes and apples there — and is an important source of water.

While Trump officially recognized Israeli sovereignty of its Golan territory during his first term in 2019, the United Nations still considers it legally part of Syria.

Dolan Abu Salah is head of the council in Majdal Shams, a village in the Israel-controlled part of the Golan that’s home to about 12,000 Druze people, a Middle Eastern religious and ethnic group. He says the local community is broadly welcoming of the Israel Defense Force’s advance, viewing it as a necessary security measure.

Assad’s fall “was a source of very great happiness, to the people here, to the Druze residents of the Golan,” Abu Salah, 46, said in the town, nestled in the foothills of the Hermon mountain and surrounded by orchards. But the “creation of a security zone is very, very important for the Golan Heights communities.”

Asked if Israel’s capture of new territory should become permanent, the council leader said it depends on the new Syrian leadership and “the potential for peace.”

“If we see that the new regime is potentially another terrorist group that will set the agenda, then the security zone must be permanent,” Abu Salah said.

Majdal Shams was caught up in Israel’s battles with Iran-backed militias in July, when twelve children were killed and more than 20 injured in a rocket attack. Israel blamed the attack on Hezbollah, based across the border from Golan in Lebanon.

Nabih Al-Halabi, another Majdal Shams resident who works on solar-energy projects, said he’s optimistic about a stronger Israel-Syria peace deal post-Assad, but sympathizes with Israel’s wariness.

“I can understand their fears — they want to protect their borders,” he said. “They want to be sure about the stability of the new regime in Damascus and whether they will sign the peace agreement.”

Turkish Visit

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan paid a visit to Damascus on Sunday, meeting HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency aired footage of the two hugging each other in front of cameras.

Fidan on Wednesday said the “last thing” the nation wants is to be seen as the regional power with final control over Syria, though the government has made contact with, as well as making military gains in the north.

“We recognize the current administration, the new one, as a legitimate partner for Turkey and international interlocutors,” Fidan said. “I think HTS has taken huge steps to divorcing itself from al-Qaeda and Daesh and other radical elements,” he said, using an alternative name for Islamic State.

Ankara has a strong incentive to secure influence over how Syria is eventually run. Turkey hosts more than 3 million refugees from its southern neighbor — a legacy of a more than 13-year war — while Turkish companies would stand to be major beneficiaries if and when postwar reconstruction starts.

“Ankara will look to shape the political and economic landscape in Syria to expand Turkish interests,” wrote Eurasia Group analysts including Emre Peker. “A good outcome in Syria for Turkey would help Erdogan project himself as an influential global leader and boost his historically low popularity.”

--With assistance from Beril Akman and Julius Domoney.

(Updates with Turkish minister’s visit in 18th paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

In data: Syria after the war

Thomas Latschan
DW
22/12/2024

The war in Syria has left a trail of destruction. The country is devastated, fragmented, and economically ruined. Millions of people are displaced, or dependent on humanitarian aid. DW presents an illustrated overview.

INFOGRAPHS


Seven million displaced people, half a million casualties of war, hunger and poverty — after 14 years of civil war, Syria is in ruins. The cost of rebuilding the country will be massive. DW has compiled some key data on the situation in Syria.

With an area of about 185,000 square kilometers, Syria is roughly half the size of Germany. Around 24 million people live in the country, two-thirds of whom are dependent on humanitarian aid. Western Syria in particular is densely populated, but there are entire metropolitan areas around cities like DamascusAleppo, Hama, and Homs that are now in ruins.

At least 140,000 buildings, including 3,000 schools, have been either completely destroyed or severely damaged. The healthcare system has also been heavily impacted across much of the country. During the war, several human rights organizations reported that Russian and Syrian forces had deliberately bombed numerous hospitals.

Estimates vary as to what it will cost to rebuild the country, but it is clear that the total will be huge — potentially as high as one trillion US dollars. Reconstruction efforts may be further complicated because Syria is heavily contaminated with landmines, and the full extent of the problem is not known. Of the more than half a million people who were killed in the war, 12,000 were killed by mines or unexploded ordnance. For years now, Syria has been one of the three countries in the world that are most seriously affected by landmines.

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Millions of refugees

Around 7 million Syrians are living as displaced persons in their own country. The northwestern province of Idlib, in particular, became a place of refuge for millions fleeing the Assad regime's forces. At least 6 million more Syrians fled abroad, the majority to the neighboring countries of Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. Germany has also taken in almost 800,000 refugees from the war.

In Lebanon above all, the true number of Syrian refugees is likely to be far higher than the official figure. The United Nations estimates that there are between 1 and 2 million Syrians in the country. The population of Lebanon itself is only just over 5 million.

Returning to a shattered country

Many of these people would like to return to their homeland, but the future is still uncertain. After 14 years of war, Syria's economy is shattered.

The country's GDP has essentially collapsed. Unemployment is high, and those who do have work earn only a fraction of their pre-war income. Meanwhile, inflation has skyrocketed: It is now almost 30 times higher than in 2011. Today, almost all Syrians live below the poverty line defined by the World Bank. The German Red Cross reports that two-thirds of them live in extreme poverty.

Syria is fragmented


These problems are compounded by the current political uncertainty. It remains unclear how the country is going to evolve. After toppling the Assad regime, the Islamist HTS militia has taken control in Damascus and begun to form a transitional government.

The group's leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, presents himself as a moderate. However, his organization is still classified as a terrorist group by many countries, including the EU.

Foreign powers will continue to jostle for influence in Syria. Turkey and the militias it supports are fighting against the Kurds in the north. The United States maintains a military base in the southeast, from which it is able to target positions of the so-called Islamic State (IS) terrorist group in the sparsely-populated east of the country. The aim is to prevent an IS resurgence.

Meanwhile, Israel has occupied some areas of the demilitarized buffer zone near the Golan Heights in the southwest, and has carried out strategic bombings in Syria, partly out of concern that chemical weapons stockpiles might fall into the wrong hands.

Until recently, Russia maintained two strategically important military bases in the west of the country. It is unclear what will happen with them now. Iran, the biggest supporter of the Assad regime, is also trying to maintain its influence in the country as best as it can.

Religious minorities are afraid


During the long rule of Bashar Assad, Syria was considered part of the so-called "Shia Crescent" region, dominated by Iran — even though three-quarters of the Syrian population are Sunni, not Shia, Muslims. Assad himself belongs to the Alawite sect, a separate offshoot of Shia Islam.

There are some 2 to 3 million Alawites in Syria, many of whom are now afraid they may be branded beneficiaries of the Assad regime, and persecuted as a result. Officially, Syria also has more than 2 million Christians, although many are likely to have fled the country in recent years. They too are concerned about the potential for religious persecution.

What will happen to the Kurds?

During the war, the Kurds were able to establish an effectively autonomous, self-administered area in northeastern Syria, as they did in northern Iraq. Syria has almost 3 million Kurds. In neighboring Turkey, they are believed to number as many as 15 million.

Ankara is determined to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state. One of the main reasons it gives for opposing this is that "fighters from Kurdish terrorist militias" might carry out attacks in Turkey, and take refuge in northern Syria. This is why both the Turkish military and the Syrian militias it supports have continued to attack Kurdish regions in northeastern Syria, even after the fall of Assad.

At the very least, Turkey wants to establish a buffer zone controlled by its own military along the Syrian border. Ankara is presumably afraid that Kurds in Turkey may call for autonomy, or even an independent state, if they manage to achieve this in the neighboring countries.


With an estimated 25 to 30 million people worldwide, the Kurds are one of the largest ethnic groups without a state of their own. Their traditional homeland spans parts of modern-day Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The conflicts in this region have simmered for more than a century, since the restructuring of the Middle East that followed the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I. It is therefore doubtful that the political reorganization in Syria will bring lasting peace to the northeast of the country.

This article has been translated from German.


Israel tells Syria it won't accept Jihadist presence in southern part of country

Message sent to de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa stresses Israel intends to maintain its security and will consider leaving buffer zone should stable government be established
YNET 
22/12/2024

Jerusalem issued a message to Syria’s de factor leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammed al-Golani) saying any attempt by jihadists to move to the country’s south won’t be tolerated. 

The message further clarified that if a responsible governmental authority forms in Syria, Israel might consider transferring control of the buffer zone to it. Until then, Israel will continue to ensure its own security. This comes a week after al-Sharaa said he had no intention of clashing with Israel.
 
IDF troops in Syria
(Photo: Aris MESSINIS / AFP)


(Photo: Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)

A few days later, al-Sharaa said that Syria would adhere to the disengagement agreement signed in 1974 following the Yom Kippur War following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime. He called on the international community to ensure that Israel remains committed to the agreement as well.

Meanwhile, Jerusalem added in its message to Syria's new leadership that the Israeli military's presence in the buffer zone is motivated by defense and security concerns, particularly in preparation for potential incidents like those of October 7, 2023, originating from Syria. "We won’t allow that to happen," officials in Jerusalem stressed.

During a recent Security Cabinet meeting held at the IDF Northern Command, participants discussed the situation in Syria and Lebanon, delving into security briefings they received. Israel understands that the rebels are trying to present a specific image to the Western world, but Jerusalem remains vigilant regarding developments in Syria.



IDF officers in Syria



Ahmad al-Sharaa
(Photo: SANA / AFP)

The deterioration of security on the Syrian side since the fall of Assad's regime prompted Israeli forces to advance into the buffer zone between the two countries to neutralize threats. According to Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen network, Israeli forces have established seven permanent positions along the buffer zone in rural areas of Damascus, Daraa and Quneitra.

The report noted that two of these positions, located in the Mount Hermon area, "overlook Damascus and its western suburbs." Syrian channels have regularly reported on the Israeli military's advances toward Syrian villages, interactions with the local population and operations at various sites near the border in recent weeks.
Expelled from Aleppo as children, these fighters returned as its liberators


Al Jazeera speaks to Syrian opposition fighters who came back to liberate their homes and pursue their dreams.

A man gestures at Saadallah al-Jabiri Square as people celebrate, after President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year authoritarian rule ended, in Aleppo, on December 8, 2024 
[Karam al-Masri/Reuters]

By Justin Salhani
22 Dec 2024
AL JAZEERA

Aleppo, Syria – When Abdallah Abu Jarrah was 13, he dreamed of becoming an engineer or a lawyer.

But his home city of Aleppo was besieged by Syrian regime forces, aided by Iran, Russia and Hezbollah.

“The situation was terrible with bombings, beatings and killing,” the now 21-year-old told Al Jazeera. “I remember the regime’s massacres, the killing, and the hitting of bakeries and hospitals.”

Eight years later, a series of images went viral on social media. Youth, displaced by the regime in 2016, had returned as fighters to liberate the city of Aleppo. The side-by-side photos showed children boarding buses in one photo. In the next photo, they are young men smiling broadly, wearing military fatigues and carrying rifles.

On December 22, 2016, a four-year battle that pitted regime forces and their allies against the opposition ended with the evacuation of thousands of opposition forces from East Aleppo on buses.

War crimes were rife.

Syrian rebel fighters who liberated the city of Aleppo [Ali Haj Suleiman/Al Jazeera]

The al-Assad regime besieged opposition areas, which included thousands of civilians, while the Russian air force bombed hospitals and bakeries. The regime used internationally banned chlorine bombs, according to the United Nations, killing hundreds.

The UN reported in November 2016, a month before the end of the battle, that East Aleppo had no working hospitals.

“The brutality and the intensity of the fighting was not seen before,” Elia Ayoub, a writer and researcher who covered the fall of Aleppo, said.

The UN also criticised opposition groups for indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas “to terrorise the civilian population” and for shooting at civilians to try and keep them from leaving the areas.

At least 35,000 people were dead and much of the city destroyed by 2016 – most of it still in ruins eight years later. At least 18 percent of the dead were children.

“I thought we would never come back,” Abu Jarrah told Al Jazeera.
Destroyed buildings opposite the Aleppo Citadel [Ali Haj Suleiman/Al Jazeera]

Capital of the Syrian revolution

When a peaceful uprising demanding reforms broke out in Syria in 2011, al-Assad responded with brutal force. The opposition took up arms and challenged the regime around the country.

The regime relied on foreign intervention. Hezbollah and Iran joined the fight in 2013 and the Russian intervention in late 2015, ostensibly to counter ISIL (ISIS), pushed the opposition back.

“Symbolically, Aleppo was the capital of the revolution,” Ayoub said. “Its fall was preceded by other cities and it was this final nail in the uprising’s coffin at that time.”

The city would stay under regime control for almost eight years. Many who fled Aleppo moved to Idlib in Syria’s northwest and huddled in displacement camps, where they suffered years of air attacks by the regime and its allies.

In November, opposition fighters led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army launched an operation to retake Aleppo.

Among the factors in their favour was that the Syrian Army was possibly weaker than it had ever been and its allies were preoccupied with their own battles – Russia in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah with Israel
.
The Syrian flag waves near the historic Aleppo Citadel [Ali Haj Suleiman/Al Jazeera]


I felt human again’

On November 30, the Syrian opposition reentered Aleppo for the first time in eight years and quickly took control of the city.

Among the returning fighters was Abu Jarrah, who had joined a faction in the Free Syrian Army when he was about 16.

“I felt human again,” he told Al Jazeera, his eyes shining outside the city’s historic citadel, dressed in military fatigues adorned with Syria’s green, white and black flag, with three red stars. “Today is an indescribable joy.”

Standing not far away was Abu Abdelaziz, another Free Syrian Army fighter who had fled the city when he was 17. He wore fatigues and a black face mask with a skull imprinted on the front, and carried a rifle.

“They forced us to leave, displaced us and cursed us and we returned to where we were raised, where we spent our childhood with our friends and school,” he said. “It’s a great feeling of great joy. You can’t measure it.”

Abu Abdelaziz said the first thing he did when the city was liberated was visit his old school.

“When I was young I wanted to be a heart doctor,” the fighter who is now 24 years old said. The war, however, took a heavy toll on him. His family was killed and his house in Aleppo was destroyed. Still, he said, he wanted to stay in Aleppo and become a doctor.
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“Now, God willing, I will complete my studies,” he said.

Abu Abdelaziz was displaced from Aleppo when he was a teenager. He returned at 24 to liberate the city [Ali Haj Suleiman/ Al Jazeera]

‘We will build this country together’

Aleppo is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world and historically among the Middle East’s most economically important. Hittites, Assyrians, Arabs, Mongols, Mamelukes and Ottomans all ruled it before it became part of modern Syria. Before the civil war, it was Syria’s capital of industry and finance.

Parts of Aleppo have largely fallen into disrepair. Locals told Al Jazeera that even before the war, the regime had stopped investing in the city. But very little of the damage from the fighting from 2012 to 2016 has been repaired. Even its crown jewel, The Citadel of Aleppo, was badly damaged and left to rot. Buildings destroyed by air attacks are still visible from the foot of the Citadel today.

Even in the city’s rif – or periphery – entire neighbourhoods are completely abandoned. Collapsed roofs and crumbling facades rest behind empty pools as wild dogs roam the ghost towns.

Now that the war is over, the city’s returning fighters hope to trade in their guns to help fix their city.

“If a field of study opens up I want to complete my studies,” Abu Jarrah said. “And we will build this country together.”

In ruined homes, Palestinians recall former Syria leader’s torture

AFP/Yarmuk
 December 22, 2024 | 

Mahmud Khaled Ajaj, 30, reacts while standing before a destroyed apartment building in the Yarmuk camp for Palestinian refugees south of Damascus.

School lessons ended in Syria’s biggest Palestinian refugee camp on October 18, 2012, judging by the date still chalked up on the board more than a decade later.

“I am playing football”; “She is ea
ting an apple”; “The boys are flying a kite” are written in English.

Outside, the remaining children in the Damascus suburb of Yarmuk now play among the shattered ruins left by Syria’s years of civil war.

And as the kids chase through clouds of concrete dust, a torture victim — freed from jail this month when rebels toppled Bashar al-Assad’s government — hobbles through the rubble.

“Since I left the prison until now, I sleep one or two hours max,” 30-year-old Mahmud Khaled Ajaj said.

Since 1957, Yarmuk has been a 2.1-square-kilometre (519-acre) “refugee camp” for Palestinians displaced by the founding of the modern Israeli state.

SHATTERED CITY
Like similar camps across the Middle East, over the decades it has become a dense urban community of multi-storey concrete housing blocks and businesses.

According to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, at the start of Syria’s conflict in 2011 it was home to 160,000 registered refugees. Rebellion, air strikes and a siege by government forces had devastated the area and left by September this year only 8,160 people still clinging to life in the ruins.

With Assad’s fall, more may return to reopen the damaged schools and mosques, but many like Ajaj will have terrible tales to tell of Assad’s persecution.

The former Free Syrian Army rebel fighter spent seven years in government custody, most of it at the notorious Saydnaya prison, and was only released when Assad’s rule ended on December 8.

Ajaj’s face is still paler than those of his neighbours, who are tanned from sitting outside ruined homes, and he walks awkwardly with a back brace after years of beatings. At one point, a prison doctor injected him in the spine and partly paralysed him — he thinks on purpose — but what really haunts him was the hunger in his packed cell. 

“My neighbours and relatives know that I had little food, so they bring me food and fruit. I don’t sleep if the food is not next to me. The bread, especially the bread,” he said.

 “Yesterday, we had bread leftovers,” he said, relishing being outside after his windowless group cell, and ignoring calls from his family to come to see a concerned aunt.

“My parents usually keep them for the birds to feed them. I told them: ‘Give part of them to the birds and keep the rest for me. Even if they are dry or old I want them for me’.” As Ajaj spoke to AFP, two passing Palestinian women paused to see if he had any news of missing relatives since Syria’s ousted leader fled to Russia.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has documented more than 35,000 cases of disappearances under Assad’s rule.

Ajaj’s ordeal was extreme, but the entire Yarmuk community has suffered on the frontline of Assad’s war for survival, with Palestinians roped into fighting on both sides.

The graveyard is cratered by air strikes. Families struggle to find the tombs of their dead amid the devastation. The scars left by mortar strikes dot empty basketball courts.

Here and there, bulldozers are trying to shift rubble and the homeless try to scavenge re-usable debris. Some find work, but others struggle with trauma.

Haitham Hassan al-Nada, a lively and wild-eyed 28-year-old, invited an AFP reporter to run his hand over lumps he says are bullets still lodged in his skull and hands. His father, a local trader, supports him and his wife and two children after Assad’s forces shot him and left him for dead as a deserter from the government side.

Nada told AFP he fled service because, as a Palestinian, he did not think he should have to serve in Syrian forces. He was caught and shot multiple times, he said.

“They called my mother after they ‘killed’ me, so she went to the airport road, towards Najha. They told her ‘This is the dog’s body, the deserter’,” he said.

“They didn’t wash my body, and when she was kissing me to say goodbye before they buried me, suddenly and by God’s power, it’s unbelievable, I took a deep breath.” After Nada was released from hospital, he returned to Yarmuk and found a scene of devastation.

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