If infections continue at their current pace, the US could see triple the number of measles cases seen last year.
By Chris Walker ,
PublishedFebruary 5, 2026
Human skin covered with measles rash.Getty Images
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has identified nearly 600 cases of measles in the U.S. in the first month of 2026 — a number that would have seemed unimaginable just a few years ago, as the virus has been considered eradicated in the U.S. for more than two decades.
As of January 29, the CDC counted 588 cases of measles across 17 states. The vast majority of cases identified (85 percent) occurred in people 19 years old and under.
Although the CDC updates its numbers weekly, a new report might not be issued until next week due to the limited government shutdown that occurred last weekend. Johns Hopkins University, which also tracks the spread of measles (by monitoring state and county health departments, county-level press releases, and news articles), has a more updated count through the first few days of February, pegging this year’s total as 712 cases as of Thursday morning.
The numbers from both the CDC and Johns Hopkins are incredibly high, molecular biologist and public health advocate Lucky Tran noted in a post on X.
“US measles cases this year already exceed the total for the whole of 2023 and 2024 combined, and it is only January,” Tran wrote. “Yikes.”
This year’s total will likely be much higher than the 2,267 measles cases that were counted in 2025. Indeed, although we’re almost one-tenth of the way through 2026, the numbers from the CDC already amount to more than a quarter of last year’s total. Johns Hopkins’s numbers amount to more than 31 percent of last year’s total.
If the CDC’s numbers continue at their current pace, the U.S. could see as many as 7,400 total cases by the end of the year — more than triple the number that was counted in 2025.
The spread of the highly contagious virus is happening mostly in unvaccinated communities, with the CDC recognizing that 94 percent of those infected were not vaccinated for measles or had “unknown” vaccination status. But it’s also hitting people who are being confined in tight quarters — for example, measles was recently detected at an immigration jail where families are being imprisoned in Dilley, Texas, forcing officials there to halt “all movement” within the facility.
Neha Desai, a lawyer for the National Center for Youth Law, which represents children in immigration custody, said there was a better option to ensure the infection wouldn’t spread.
“This is an untenable situation with a simple solution — families should never be detained,” Desai said.
Because of the thousands of cases counted last year, as well as the continued spread of the virus happening now, the United States risks losing its status as a country that has virtually eliminated measles. In April, health officials from the U.S. will meet with leaders of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) to reassess its status.
Complicating matters is the fact that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., head of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and a noted anti-vaxxer, is downplaying the significance of the spread of measles. While Kennedy has said that an MMR vaccine is a good way to prevent the virus from spreading, he has also downplayed the vaccine’s efficacy, dangerously claiming that a person gets better immunity from being infected with measles directly.
A two-dose regimen of the MMR vaccine generally provides lifetime protection against the virus. When breakthrough cases do occur, the vaccine is still helpful, as it makes symptoms much milder compared to in cases where a person is unvaccinated.
Direct infection with measles, meanwhile, can lead to a host of lifetime complications, including respiratory and neurological issues. Up to 3 children out of every 1,000 who are infected with measles will die from the virus, the CDC estimates.
“Measles is a dangerous disease and the vaccine is very safe,” an explainer from Johns Hopkins states. “The risks of severe illness, death, or lifelong complications from measles infection far outweigh the generally mild side effects some people experience following vaccination.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has identified nearly 600 cases of measles in the U.S. in the first month of 2026 — a number that would have seemed unimaginable just a few years ago, as the virus has been considered eradicated in the U.S. for more than two decades.
As of January 29, the CDC counted 588 cases of measles across 17 states. The vast majority of cases identified (85 percent) occurred in people 19 years old and under.
Although the CDC updates its numbers weekly, a new report might not be issued until next week due to the limited government shutdown that occurred last weekend. Johns Hopkins University, which also tracks the spread of measles (by monitoring state and county health departments, county-level press releases, and news articles), has a more updated count through the first few days of February, pegging this year’s total as 712 cases as of Thursday morning.
The numbers from both the CDC and Johns Hopkins are incredibly high, molecular biologist and public health advocate Lucky Tran noted in a post on X.
“US measles cases this year already exceed the total for the whole of 2023 and 2024 combined, and it is only January,” Tran wrote. “Yikes.”
This year’s total will likely be much higher than the 2,267 measles cases that were counted in 2025. Indeed, although we’re almost one-tenth of the way through 2026, the numbers from the CDC already amount to more than a quarter of last year’s total. Johns Hopkins’s numbers amount to more than 31 percent of last year’s total.
If the CDC’s numbers continue at their current pace, the U.S. could see as many as 7,400 total cases by the end of the year — more than triple the number that was counted in 2025.
The spread of the highly contagious virus is happening mostly in unvaccinated communities, with the CDC recognizing that 94 percent of those infected were not vaccinated for measles or had “unknown” vaccination status. But it’s also hitting people who are being confined in tight quarters — for example, measles was recently detected at an immigration jail where families are being imprisoned in Dilley, Texas, forcing officials there to halt “all movement” within the facility.
Neha Desai, a lawyer for the National Center for Youth Law, which represents children in immigration custody, said there was a better option to ensure the infection wouldn’t spread.
“This is an untenable situation with a simple solution — families should never be detained,” Desai said.
Because of the thousands of cases counted last year, as well as the continued spread of the virus happening now, the United States risks losing its status as a country that has virtually eliminated measles. In April, health officials from the U.S. will meet with leaders of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) to reassess its status.
Complicating matters is the fact that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., head of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and a noted anti-vaxxer, is downplaying the significance of the spread of measles. While Kennedy has said that an MMR vaccine is a good way to prevent the virus from spreading, he has also downplayed the vaccine’s efficacy, dangerously claiming that a person gets better immunity from being infected with measles directly.
A two-dose regimen of the MMR vaccine generally provides lifetime protection against the virus. When breakthrough cases do occur, the vaccine is still helpful, as it makes symptoms much milder compared to in cases where a person is unvaccinated.
Direct infection with measles, meanwhile, can lead to a host of lifetime complications, including respiratory and neurological issues. Up to 3 children out of every 1,000 who are infected with measles will die from the virus, the CDC estimates.
“Measles is a dangerous disease and the vaccine is very safe,” an explainer from Johns Hopkins states. “The risks of severe illness, death, or lifelong complications from measles infection far outweigh the generally mild side effects some people experience following vaccination.”
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