A world map of climate policy: Who stands to gain most?
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Countries highly vulnerable to the phase-out of oil, gas and coal account for just 6 percent of global economic output, countries in Africa stand to benefit from their vast solar energy potential, and the economic interests of the US, Europe and China are affected by climate policy in surprisingly similar ways. A study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) published in Nature Sustainability now shows, for 169 countries around the world, how the fight against global heating affects national assets – and what geopolitical challenges and opportunities arise as a result.
The unprecedentedly comprehensive dataset compiled by the research team shows how climate policy affects national assets in four ways: (1) it reduces demand of fossil fuels, potentially leading to losses in oil, gas and coal revenues; (2) it reduces climate-related damage to the national economy; (3) it creates new economic opportunities for solar and wind energy development; and (4) it increases the value of a country’s capacity to absorb and store CO₂ from the atmosphere – whether “naturally” via forests or “managed” through the stewardship of natural areas.
“Based on our data analysis, we can map how countries could gain or lose from different aspects of decarbonisation by the end of this century, depending on the level of ambition in climate policy,” reports Guanna Pan, PIK researcher and lead author of the study. “We explore geopolitical tensions that may arise from some countries experiencing losses, but we also show how national interests can foster international cooperation, and how this can be further strengthened through targeted incentives.”
Five groups of countries with similar interests
To better understand potential economic gains and losses across countries, the research team has identified clusters – that is, groups of states in which climate policy generates similar economic opportunities and risks, and potentially shared interests. According to the study, 19 fossil fuel-dependent countries would potentially oppose ambitious measures. By contrast, 51 countries in the Global South have a strong interest in a rapid climate transition as they would otherwise face particularly severe climate damages. Likewise, 13 countries “with high potential for renewable energy” – the majority of which are in Africa – and 17 countries “with high carbon sequestration capacity” would also naturally favour swift action in the fight against global heating.
However, these four clusters do not carry all that much political weight: the group of oil, gas and coal-dependent countries accounts for only 6 percent of global economic output, and the three groups of countries that especially stand to benefit from climate protection account for only 13 percent combined. The remaining 81 percent of economic output is accounted for by the fifth cluster – the 69 “economies with moderate impacts” – which includes the EU, China and the US. In this group of countries, the economic benefits of climate policy are, in absolute terms, considerable in many cases, particularly due to avoided climate damage. Calculated as a percentage, however, it is not as large as in the three clusters of strong winners.
Climate policy safeguards long-term prosperity
In summary, the research team notes that humanity as a whole must take a collective interest in climate action, but that the differences in gains and losses between countries need to be fully understood. The study provides the necessary guidance and concludes with the recommendation that, where interests diverge, climate cooperation should be strengthened through “package deals”. This means that concessions on climate protection for hesitant countries should be linked with promises regarding trade or research and development; it could also mean simply offsetting losses through financial transfers.
“In view of the current resurgence of opposition to a committed climate policy, it is important to recognise that climate policy does not merely devalue certain assets – namely those of fossil fuel suppliers,” emphasises Ottmar Edenhofer, PIK Director and one of the co-authors. “Our study also demonstrates quite precisely how new assets are simultaneously being built up. Overall, climate policy revalues the capital stock of economies in a new and sustainable way, thereby safeguarding long-term prosperity.”
Journal
Nature Sustainability
Method of Research
Data/statistical analysis
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Quantifying Assets for the Geopolitics of Climate Mitigation
Article Publication Date
15-Oct-2026
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