Flood risk increasing in Pacific Northwest

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This map (left image) indicates the sites of the 24 estuaries along the coast in the Cascadia subduction zone where Tina Dura and her team took geological core samples. The photo on the right is of Brandon Hatcher and Tina Dura with a core sample.

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Credit: Image and photo courtesy of Tina Dura.

The next great earthquake isn't the only threat to the Pacific Northwest.

A powerful earthquake, combined with rising sea levels, could significantly increase flood risks in the Pacific Northwest, impacting thousands of residents and properties in northern California, Oregon, and Washington, according to new Virginia Tech research.

A study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that a major earthquake could cause coastal land to sink up to 6.5 feet, expanding the federally designated 1 percent coastal floodplain, an area with a 1-in-100 chance of flooding each year, by 35 to 116 square miles.

“The expansion of the coastal floodplain following a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake has not been previously quantified, and the impacts to land use could significantly increase the timeline to recovery,” said researcher Tina Dura, lead author of the study and assistant professor of geosciences in the College of Science.

The research shows the most severe effects would hit southern Washington, northern Oregon, and northern California, densely populated areas in the region.

Dura’s team generated tens of thousands of earthquake models to estimate the potential range of earthquake-driven subsidence — sinking land — that can be expected from the next large Cascadia earthquake. Then, using geospatial analysis, the team quantified the earthquake-driven expansion of the 1 percent floodplain at 24 estuaries and communities along the Cascadia subduction zone. Because the timing of the next large earthquake is uncertain, the team modeled the impacts of an earthquake striking today or in 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will further amplify the impacts of earthquake-driven subsidence.   

The study estimates that following an earthquake today, an additional 14,350 residents, 22,500 structures, and 777 miles of roadway would fall within the post-earthquake floodplain, more than doubling flood exposure. Potential flooding would affect five airports; 18 critical facilities, including public schools, hospitals, police stations, and fire stations; eight wastewater treatment plants; one electric substation; and 57 potential contaminant sources, including animal feeding operations, gas stations, and solid waste facilities. 

By 2100, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) localized relative sea-level rise projections show that sea levels along the Cascadia subduction zone could be up to 3 feet higher than today. This climate-driven sea-level rise will amplify the impacts of future earthquake-driven subsidence, more than tripling the flood exposure of residents, structures, and roads.

“Today, and more so in 2100 as background sea levels rise, the immediate effect of earthquake-driven subsidence will be a delay in response and recovery from the earthquake due to compromised assets. Long-term effects could render many coastal communities uninhabitable,” said Dura, an affiliate with the Global Change Center.

Current low-lying land developed for cattle grazing and farming through diking and draining will experience heavy economic loss as increased tidal inundation will cause over salinization of soils and render them unusable. Additional impacts include erosion of natural systems, particularly coastal estuaries, intertidal wetlands and protective dunes and beaches. These act as buffers against storm surges and help to dissipate wave energy to prevent sediment erosion and protect property damage. According to Dura, the loss of these ecosystems may not be recoverable, and inland movement may be constrained by topography and human development.

“The loss of intertidal wetlands directly impacts ecosystem services such as water filtration, habitat for fisheries and shorebirds, and carbon storage capacity,” said Dura, an affiliate with the Fralin Life Sciences Institute. “Intertidal wetlands function as natural carbon sinks, and their erosion or conversion to tidal flats significantly reduces their ability to sequester carbon.”

The Cascadia subduction zone is one of many regions in the “Ring of Fire,” where the Pacific Plate meets another tectonic plate, causing the strongest earthquakes in the world and the majority of volcanic eruptions. However, a great earthquake — those with a seismic magnitude over 8.0 — has not occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone since Jan. 26, 1700, making coastal geologic records of past earthquakes and associated subsidence critical for understanding this hazard. 

Dura and her team are documenting geologic evidence of past earthquake-driven subsidence as the Paleoseismology Working Group Lead within the Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT), a center at the University of Oregon funded by the National Science Foundation that is providing a collaborative framework to tackle multidisciplinary scientific and societal challenges at the Cascadia subduction zone.

Their research of geologic evidence from the last six to seven thousand years indicates that 11 great earthquakes have happened approximately every 200 to 800 years in the Pacific Northwest. The last earthquake in the region resulted in between 1.5 to 6.5 feet of land along the coastline immediately sinking.

“Cascadia is a unique place. It’s not super heavily populated, but most estuaries have a community in them, and they’re all right in the zone of subsidence,” said Dura. “This is honestly where I think the subsidence could have bigger impacts than it has during other recent large earthquakes around the world.”

Global relevance

Subduction zones, which can also be found off the coasts of Alaska, Russia, Japan, Indonesia, New Zealand, and South America, are all similar in that one tectonic plate slides beneath another. Along portions of these subduction zones, there is an initial uplift in the top plate. Pressure between the two plates gradually builds over centuries. The resultant earthquake is created when the plate above become unstuck. Offshore, the plate rises, forcing an upward water surge that leads to a tsunami. Onshore, the plate subsides, immediately dropping the coastline up to 6.5 feet.  

The earthquake shaking begins the process. For a magnitude 9 earthquake or over, that takes about four to six minutes. While the shaking is occurring the land is dropping, and, depending on tidal conditions, low-lying areas may experience immediate flooding. Within 15 to 20 minutes the tsunami hits with further flooding. The entire process takes no longer than 30 minutes, and multiple tsunami waves may occur over one to two hours. However, the sinking of the land will persist for decades to centuries after the earthquake.

According to Dura, the 1960 Chile earthquake submerged a pine forest and farms, converting them to tidal marshes, and it flooded coastal towns, forcing residents to abandon their homes; the 1964 Alaska earthquake forced the relocation of communities and airstrips to higher ground; the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake destroyed waterfront aquaculture and caused coastal erosion; and the 2011 earthquake in Japan caused erosion, disrupted ports, and contributed to a nuclear disaster.

“Given the global prevalence of subduction zones, these insights hold relevance beyond Cascadia, informing hazard assessments and mitigation strategies for tectonically active regions worldwide,” Dura said.

Other Virginia Tech affiliates who contributed to the paper:

• Robert Weiss, professor of geosciences 
• Mike Willis, associate professor of geosciences
• David Bruce, postdoctoral fellow in geosciences
• William Chilton Ph.D. '23, now in private industry
• Jessica DePaolis, postdoctoral fellow in geosciences
• Mike Priddy, a former Ph.D. student in geosciences for this research

These images show the areas where the current flood plain is (figure on the left) and the expansion of the floodplain in 2100 (figure on the right) due to sea-level rise and an earthquake with either low, medium, or high levels of subsidence, or sinking land.

Credit

Images courtesy of Tina Dura.

Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Article Publication Date

28-Apr-2025

Everyone else’s opinion is secretly changing yours (and that’s huge for disinformation)

Public opinion may be swaying you a lot more than you think.

byMihai Andrei
April 25, 2025
Edited and reviewed by Zoe Gordon
ZME Science

AI-generated image.


If you’ve ever changed your mind about a movie after seeing an IMDB or Rotten Tomatoes score or felt oddly compelled to click on the Instagram post with more likes, you’re not alone — or irrational. You’re just human, swimming in a world where other people’s opinions subtly shape your own.

Throughout human evolution, social learning has been face-to-face. Children absorb knowledge from their parents, communities share stories, and culture was passed from kin to kin. This kind of social learning — rich, personal, and face-to-face — shaped our minds for millennia. All that started to change with Ancient Greece.

With the invention of democracy in ancient Greece, a new form of social information emerged: aggregated opinion — the quantified judgments of large, often anonymous groups. That only amplified with the internet. Today, most of the opinions you encounter come from people you’ll never meet, via digital platforms that distill thousands or millions of views into neat numbers and stars or hearts.

Aggregated opinion has changed the social landscape. It’s not just what one person thinks — it’s a quantified consensus. Think election polls, Amazon stars, Metacritic scores, or a tally of likes under a TikTok video. All that aggregated opinion changes our own, personal opinion, say psychologists Kerem Oktar and Tania Lombrozo.

But is that a good thing?
Your opinion? Nah, our opinion

The study is a comprehensive review rather than a single experiment. The authors looked at findings from psychology, marketing, political science, and even philosophy to understand how people respond to aggregated opinion — and why.


Aggregated opinion can be remarkably accurate, especially when it meets three criteria: large sample size, independent judgments, and informant reliability. The so-called “wisdom of crowds” — a phenomenon where group averages outperform individual guesses — has been repeatedly demonstrated. In a classic example, a crowd estimated the weight of an ox within 1% of its actual weight. Individually, most guesses were off. Together, they nailed it.

The wisdom of the crowd, if supported by a sufficiently large sample size, can outperform even a group of experts. But that only works when members aren’t copying each other. Let’s say you have one million people review a movie, giving it stars from 1 to 5; if everyone just gives their opinion, you’ll end up with one result. But if you show people what others voted, that could change their mind. The best aggregated opinion comes from many, independent minds. But on the internet, independence is increasingly rare.

Oktar and Lombrozo identify four paths through which aggregated opinions can change your mind:Informational path – Do you trust the crowd? Are they informed and independent? If not, their consensus won’t sway you.
Functional path – Would changing your mind hurt you socially or emotionally? If yes, you’ll likely resist.

Ontological path – Do you see the issue as subjective, objective, or unknowable? If it’s the former, other opinions matter less.

Computational path – Do you have the mental bandwidth to process the opinion? If not, you might ignore it by default.


This has huge implications for fighting misinformation. Instead of bombarding people with consensus numbers, we need to understand why they believe what they do and tailor our approaches.

What this means in practice

The findings are particularly important for crafting effective communication messages. Given the nuanced way people respond to consensus, one-size-fits-all persuasion doesn’t work. Telling climate skeptics that “97% of scientists agree” might fall flat if they distrust scientists or see the issue as unknowable. But if you show why scientists are trustworthy — or reframe climate change as a moral concern aligned with their values — you might get traction. This is an example of the informational path.

In the functional path, a supporter of a corrupt politician might ignore polls that show that most people detest the politician owing to
social pressures from friends who also support the politician. In other words, there’s a social cost to changing your opinion on the politician. You could confront that person with polling numbers but it won’t do much. Instead, you could highlight trusted in-group voices who have shifted their stance. For example, “Even long-time supporters like [X public figure] have started speaking out — maybe they saw something important.” Alternatively, you could emphasize the values they already hold, like fairness or protecting their children’s future, and show how those values are better served elsewhere.


The researchers give the example of vegetarianism for the ontological path. A person may think that food choices are strictly personal — everyone’s entitled to their opinion and there’s no objective truth. Because they see dietary choices as subjective — a matter of taste, not truth — they don’t feel compelled to change. That opinion may be changed by making the issue feel more factual, highlighting the objective harms of industrial meat production: deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and ethical concerns grounded in animal sentience.

Lastly, the computational path is something we’ve all been faced with at some point. Let’s say you’re browsing Amazon for a $5 phone charger. It has mixed reviews, but you’re in a rush and let’s face it, it’s just $5. Many consumers lack the time, energy, and motivation to process the reviews. You keep the belief not because it’s correct, but because it’s easy. It would take too much energy to shift the opinion.
You’re also in the loop

To add even more complexity to all of this is that you are part of the crowd shaping everyone else’s beliefs. Every time you leave a rating, click “like,” or answer a poll, you feed into the aggregated opinion machine. Your judgments ripple outward, influencing strangers in ways you’ll never see.


The main takeaway is that aggregated opinions can shape individual beliefs. The polls, the ratings, they’re always whispering in your ear. They’re whispering in everyone’s ear. But there’s no fixed response. Their influence depends on a combination of cognitive, social, and contextual factors. People don’t just passively absorb the majority view; instead, they evaluate aggregated opinion through four key psychological “paths”.

In short, a belief change in response to aggregated opinion isn’t automatic. It’s filtered through a psychological lens shaped by trust, motivation, perceived objectivity, and mental effort. Understanding these filters is useful for addressing misinformation, polarization, and public attitudes in the digital age.

In a world flooded with information, the danger isn’t just ignorance — it’s disinformation wrapped in the comforting guise of consensus. That’s why understanding how we respond to public opinion matters more than ever. In the age of likes and lies, the most important belief to update might be your belief in the crowd itself.

The study was published in Nature Reviews Psychology.

Toward defining problematic media usage patterns in adolescents

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About The Article:

 This Viewpoint proposes an analogous taxonomy for digital media use that identifies patterns of use, irrespective of content, that could be problematic but, at a minimum, should be flagged as warranting further evaluation and potential remediation.

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Dimitri A. Christakis, MD, MPH, email dimitri.christakis@seattlechildrens.org.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jama.2025.6113)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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A Forgotten Civilization in Peru Buried Its War Dead Like Heroes and Now We’re Finally Learning Who They Were

Battle-wounded skeletons and ancient textiles offer new clues about the lesser-known Chuquibamba.

by Tudor Tarita
April 25, 2025
 ZME Science
Edited and reviewed by Tibi Puiu


In a dry, sunburned valley along Peru’s southern coast, archaeologists have unearthed the remains of 24 people—men, women, and children—whose bones bear the unmistakable signs of war. However, their final resting place was a carefully arranged tomb, where each body was wrapped in cloth and laid to rest with offerings.



This mass grave, recently uncovered in the Atico River Valley by a Polish-led expedition, is forcing researchers to reconsider the story of a little-known South American civilization called the Chuquibamba—or Aruni.Some of the unearthed grave goods—pottery and corn cobs. 

Credit: Jósef Szykulski / University of Wrocław

Buried as Heroes

The burial site lies within the El Curaca archaeological zone, a stone’s throw from the Pacific Ocean. It is here that Professor Józef Szykulski and his team from the University of Wrocław began excavations in October 2024. What they found stunned even seasoned researchers.


Inside a large, circular stone tomb were the skeletons of 24 individuals, carefully bundled in woven textiles. Scattered among them were grave goods: corn cobs, ceramic shards, bone tools, and fragments of carved wood. Most haunting of all, though, were the marks on the bones.

“All of the people died due to injuries consistent with battle wounds,” the team wrote in a translated statement posted on Facebook.


The presence of such rich burial offerings—especially in a collective tomb—suggests these were not just casualties, but honored dead. Szykulski believes they died in a battle that their people won.

A Culture Nearly Lost to Time

Remains from the tomb. 

Credit: Instytut Archeologii Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego.

The Chuquibamba culture thrived between 1000 and 1450 C.E., straddling the rise of the better-known Inca Empire. Yet while the Inca left behind cities and chronicles, the Chuquibamba remained rather obscure.

Archaeologists had previously enigmatic petroglyphs etched into caves across the region, but details about the people who made them remained scarce. The El Curaca find is changing that.

Many of the ceramics mirror styles found in Peru’s Tambo and Quilca valleys, and in the Majes River basin, which are thought to be the Chuquibamba cultural heartland. They are typically dark red, painted with black lines and stylized figures—birds, camelids, eight-pointed stars.

Then there are the textiles.

Described by scholars as “intensely patterned,” Chuquibamba fabrics were woven with camelid fibers, likely from alpacas. Some featured interwoven motifs and layered colors. One bag, likely used to hold coca leaves, carried such intricate designs that it was once mistaken for an Inca artifact.

Researchers are now using 3D scanning to preserve the delicate skulls and document trauma patterns. Conservationists are also stabilizing the ancient textiles, hoping to glean more about how the Chuquibamba saw—and dressed—their world

One of the burials discovered at El Curaca in Peru in late 2024.

 Credit: Jósef Szykulski / University of Wrocław

Who Were the Chuquibamba?

For now, much of their history remains cloaked in mystery. The Inca, who came later, may have overshadowed them in the highlands, but in places like El Curaca, the Chuquibamba ruled for centuries. However, the mass grave raises tantalizing questions. Who were the attackers? Was this part of a larger conflict? And how did these people view death?

The researchers, still on site until the end of April, hope to find more answers as they continue their work.

In the meantime, the grave at El Curaca serves as a powerful reminder. Civilizations do not need to be vast or famous to be profound. Sometimes, it is in their absences—and in the care they took for their dead—that their stories speak loudest.

The research project is still ongoing.

The surprising reason why the UK has power surges because of TV programs

It's all because of tea.

by Mihai Andrei
April 25, 2025
Edited and reviewed by Zoe Gordon

ZME Science 

TV pickup is a very real problem. Of course, it’s caused by the humble kettle. 

AI-generated image.


It was the half-time whistle of the Spain-England Euro 2024 final. Millions of England fans, hearts still pounding from a tense first 45 minutes, headed straight to the kitchen, reached for their kettles, and made a cup of tea.

In those few minutes, the UK’s National Grid faced a massive surge of electricity demand. They knew it was coming. This was no random spike — it was a “TV pickup.” The synchronized rush to boil water for tea and coffee during breaks in popular TV programs is a phenomenon that can cause major power surges, and it happens more often than you might think.

Yep, this is all because of tea

This phenomenon is unique to the UK, thanks to a perfect storm of cultural and electrical factors. Brits love their tea, and British kettles are particularly powerful, consuming 2.5 to 3 kilowatts each. When millions of these kettles switch on simultaneously, the sudden surge in electricity demand is immense. In other countries, such as the United States or Germany, similar surges are less common due to different viewing habits and less reliance on high-powered kettles.


When a big show or major sporting event pauses for a commercial break, or reaches a dramatic conclusion, people take the opportunity to “brew a cuppa”. This synchronized behavior can increase demand on the National Grid by hundreds or even thousands of megawatts — a level of energy usage that power stations must scramble to supply.

Obviously, this can cause problems for the electrical grid. As a result, the people who manage the National Grid know the TV schedule better than most TV critics.

The Energy Balancing Team at the Grid predicts these surges with meticulous precision. They study TV listings, monitor popular soap-opera storylines, and anticipate viewer reactions to cliffhangers and tense sports matches. Their mission is simple: ensure the lights stay on, no matter how dramatic the TV moment. But to achieve that mission, you need to anticipate the cliffhanger. Is a football game going to go in extra time? That means another tea break. Is a big cliffhanger coming? Prepare the reserves, then.

TV pickup is a problem

Managing these surges is a delicate balancing act. The National Grid aims to keep the frequency of electricity supply between 49.5 and 50.5 Hz. If demand suddenly spikes without an equivalent increase in supply, the frequency drops, which can destabilize the entire network.

An example of the phenomenon of “TV pickup” a very British problem, in this case, the 1990 World Cup England vs Germany match. 

Image credits: Francisco Gonzalez-Longatt.

To handle this, the Grid uses a mix of fast-response reserves and longer-term backups. Pumped storage reservoirs like Dinorwig provide the first line of defense. If more power is needed, fossil fuel and nuclear stations are brought online. The UK can also import electricity from France and the Netherlands through undersea power cables.

Short-term power reserves play a crucial role in balancing these surges. Pumped storage reservoirs, such as the Dinorwig Power Station in Wales, are a key tool. Dubbed the “Electric Mountain,” Dinorwig can produce 1,320 megawatts of power in just 12 seconds, making it the fastest-responding power station in the world. This rapid response helps bridge the gap until slower fossil fuel and nuclear power stations can catch up.


This used to be a constant problem up until a few years ago. Streaming services have alleviated some of the problems but when it comes to big, timely events like football games, surges still happen.

Some of the most memorable surges
England vs. West Germany – July 4, 1990 (2,800 MW)

No TV pickup stands taller than the surge that followed the England vs. West Germany FIFA World Cup semi-final. The match gripped the nation from start to finish. After a grueling 120 minutes of play, the tension escalated to a nerve-wracking penalty shootout. England’s dreams of a World Cup final ended with a missed penalty by Chris Waddle.


As the final whistle blew and tears flowed across the country, millions needed a moment to collect themselves — and make a cup of tea. The resulting surge of 2,800 megawatts remains the largest in history, equivalent to switching on the power for nearly 1.2 million homes.
The Thorn Birds Finale – January 22, 1984 (2,600 MW)

The American mini-series The Thorn Birds might seem an unlikely candidate for a massive British TV pickup, but the show’s final episode was a showstopper. The story of forbidden love between a priest and a young woman had built to an emotional crescendo, and when the end credits rolled, viewers collectively exhaled. A surge of 2,600 megawatts hit the Grid, marking one of the highest ever recorded.

The Wedding of Prince Charles and Lady Diana – July 29, 1981 (1,800 MW)

A moment of royal spectacle and national pride, the wedding of Prince Charles and Lady Diana was watched by millions. As the newlyweds shared their iconic balcony kiss, viewers at home took the opportunity to celebrate in a typically British fashion — with a cup of tea. The pickup of 1,800 megawatts underscored the power of royal events to bring people together.

2024 TV Surges: All About Football

The UEFA European Championship proved to be a harbinger of many surges for the national grid. England’s games with Spain and Denmark, the final and semi-final of that championship, brought surges over 1,000 MW at half time.



Mihai Andrei
Dr. Andrei Mihai is a geophysicist and founder of ZME Science. He has a Ph.D. in geophysics and archaeology and has completed courses from prestigious universities (with programs ranging from climate and astronomy to chemistry and geology). He is passionate about making research more accessible to everyone and communicating news and features to a broad audience.

This School Was Built from Sugarcane Waste. It Might Change Construction Forever

Bricks made from sugarcane waste have constructed a school in India — and are building new vision for construction.

by Alexandra Gerea
April 25, 2025

ZME Science 

At Panchsheel Inter College in Uttar Pradesh, students now study inside a new school wing built not from concrete or traditional brick, but from sugarcane. Or rather, from the fibrous residue that sugarcane leaves behind — bagasse — transformed into a building material called Sugarcrete.

The innovation was born at the University of East London (UEL) and its creators argue it could reshape how buildings are made and how the planet pays for it.

Image credits: UEL.


The Sugarcrete story started at UEL’s Sustainability Research Institute. Here, researchers like Alan Chandler and Armor Gutierrez Rivas began experimenting with turning sugarcane waste into something solid and scalable.

Sugarcrete combines bagasse with sand and mineral binders to produce lightweight, interlocking blocks. According to its developers, it’s not just eco-friendly — it’s remarkably effective. Lab tests show Sugarcrete has strong fire resistance, acoustic dampening, and thermal insulation properties. It’s been tested to industrial standards and passed with flying colors. In terms of climate impact, the material is a standout. It’s six times less carbon-intensive than standard bricks, and twenty times less than concrete, by some estimates.

“Using only 30 percent of the world bagasse production, Sugarcrete could replace the traditional brick industry entirely, offering a potential saving of 1.08 billion tonnes of

Yet the real excitement doesn’t only come from Sugarcrete is, but how it’s made and used.

“It is purposely ‘open access’ in order to establish partnerships to produce new bio-waste-based construction materials where sugarcane is grown,” said the research team. Unlike conventional building materials locked behind patents, Sugarcrete can be made by anyone with the right ingredients and basic manufacturing tools. That choice, they argue, decentralizes construction innovation, allowing small-scale producers — especially in the Global South — to lead.

It’s already being put to the test

Image credits: UEL.


Architects from the global design firm Grimshaw helped shape Sugarcrete’s evolution. They introduced an interlocking block design — modeled on 17th-century masonry techniques — that allows slabs to span three meters without mortar. A different version, one with mortar, was used to build a school in India.

Working with Chemical Systems Technologies (CST) in India, the UEL team set up the first Sugarcrete production facility using local materials. Together with students from the Delhi School of Architecture and Planning, they helped design and build the new wing of Panchsheel Inter College.

“This project has taught us invaluable lessons about how Sugarcrete can enable communities to transition to sustainable building practices,” said Sugarcrete co-creator Alan Chandler, Associate of UEL’s Sustainability Research Institute (SRI).


“While we have learned how easy the blocks are to use, we’ve also identified challenges, such as ensuring the availability of materials and skills required for certain lime-based renders. With the dedication of our local partners, we are taking significant steps toward revolutionising construction and making low-carbon alternatives accessible and practical.”

Can this be scaled?

While lab tests show promising results for fire resistance, compression, and insulation, the true measure of Sugarcrete’s viability will come from how well it performs year after year in buildings like the new school in India.

If the material can withstand real-world conditions over time — rain, heat, humidity, and daily wear — without crumbling, warping, or losing strength, it has great potential.

With India producing 400 million tons of sugarcane annually, there’s no shortage of raw material. The potential for large-scale positive social and environmental impact is immense, the researchers emphasize.


It’s not just India, either.

Every year, the world produces nearly two billion tons of sugarcane, generating some 600 million tons of bagasse waste. Traditionally burned or discarded, this material could become the cornerstone of a new construction paradigm.

For now, the school is a real-life prototype. The bricks are silent, but the message is loud. Sustainable futures may rise from what we once threw away.




Alexandra Gerea

Alexandra is a naturalist who is firmly in love with our planet and the environment. When she's not writing about climate or animal rights, you can usually find her doing field research or reading the latest nutritional studies.

Geoengineering technique could cool planet using existing aircraft

SCENTIFIC FICTION AKA GREENWASHING

University College London

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A technique to cool the planet, in which particles are added to the atmosphere to reflect sunlight, would not require developing special aircraft but could be achieved using existing large planes, according to a new modelling study led by UCL (University College London) researchers.

Previously, most research has assumed that the technique, known as stratospheric aerosol injection, would be deployed in the tropics and so would require specially designed aircraft capable of flying at altitudes of 20km or more to inject the particles.

For the new study, published in the journal Earth’s Future, scientists ran simulations of different aerosol injection strategies and concluded that adding particles 13km above the polar regions could meaningfully cool the planet, albeit much less effectively than at higher altitudes closer to the equator. Commercial jets such as the Boeing 777F could reach this altitude.

Lead author Alistair Duffey, a PhD student at UCL’s Department of Earth Sciences, said: “Solar geoengineering comes with serious risks and much more research is needed to understand its impacts. However, our study suggests that it is easier to cool the planet with this particular intervention than we thought. This has implications for how quickly stratospheric aerosol injection could be started and by who.

“There are downsides to this polar low-altitude strategy. At this lower altitude, stratospheric aerosol injection is about one third as effective. That means that we would need to use three times the amount of aerosol to have the same effect on global temperature, increasing side effects such as acid rain. The strategy would also be less effective at cooling the tropics, where the direct vulnerability to warming is highest.

“However, climate change is a serious problem and it is vital to understand all our options, so that policy-makers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions.”

The researchers ran simulations in the UK’s Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1), a computer model of the climate, to estimate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection. By adding sulphur dioxide – which goes on to form tiny reflective particles – at different altitudes, latitudes and seasons, they were able to quantify the effectiveness of different deployment strategies.

They said that low-altitude deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection could only work if it was done close to the Earth’s polar regions. To be effective, particles need to be created in the stratosphere, a layer of the atmosphere above the top of most clouds, and this layer is closer to the ground nearer to the poles.

In the troposphere – the lowermost layer of the atmosphere – any aerosol particles would disappear quickly as they are caught up in clouds and rained out. However, the stratosphere is dry, stable and free of clouds, meaning that added particles would stay up for months or years.

The researchers estimated that injecting 12 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide a year at 13 km in the local spring and summer of each hemisphere would cool the planet by around 0.6°C. This is roughly the same amount added to the atmosphere by the eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano in 1991, which also produced an observable dip in global temperatures.

In the simulation, the sulphur dioxide was added at latitudes of 60 degrees north and south of the equator. That is roughly the latitude of Oslo in Norway and Anchorage in Alaska; in the south, that would be below the southernmost tip of South America.

This strategy is not as effective as injecting sulphur dioxide at 20km because the particles do not stay in the stratosphere for as long, i.e., for only a few months at 13km rather than for up to several years at 20km.

However, a low-altitude strategy using existing aircraft could begin sooner than a high-altitude approach, with the researchers noting an earlier study finding that designing and certifying high-flying aircraft might take a decade and cost several billion dollars.

Co-author Wake Smith, a Lecturer at Yale School of the Environment, part of Yale University, said: “Although pre-existing aircraft would still require a substantial modification programme to be able to function as deployment tankers, this route would be much quicker than designing a novel high-flying aircraft.”

The strategy is not a quick fix – any stratospheric aerosol injection would need to be introduced gradually, and reduced gradually, to avoid catastrophic impacts from sudden warming or cooling. Nor would it eliminate the need for emissions reductions.

Co-author Dr Matthew Henry, of the University of Exeter, said: “Stratospheric aerosol injection is certainly not a replacement for greenhouse gas emission reductions as any potential negative side effects increase with the amount of cooling: we can only achieve long-term climate stability with net zero.”

The study received funding from the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

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Journal

Earth's Future