Monday, July 24, 2023


 

Spain's center-right People’s Party, led by Alberto Nunez Feijoo, won the most seats in Sunday’s election, with 136, but fell short of a majority. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists returned 122 deputies and, with a wider range of potential partners, could potentially return to office. Ben Sills reports on Bloomberg Television.


Inconclusive vote prompts political uncertainty in Spain

Hazel WARD
AFP
Mon, July 24, 2023 at 1:15 AM

Spain's Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (R) managed to curb the gains of the right-wing opposition after focusing his campaign on the danger of a PP-Vox government (JAVIER SORIANO)

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his right-wing rival will each begin negotiations Monday to try to head off a fresh vote after an inconclusive snap election resulted in a hung parliament.

Defying polls that for months had written him off as defeated, the Socialist premier managed to curb the gains of the right-wing opposition.

With all the votes counted, Alberto Nunez Feijoo's Popular Party (PP) and far-right Vox -- its potential ally -- won a total 169 seats, a far cry from the 176 needed for a governing majority.

Sanchez's Socialists and radical left Sumar ally secured 153 seats for the left bloc.

"Feijoo narrowly wins and Sanchez resists: the government is up in the air," top-selling daily newspaper El Pais headlines on its front page on Monday.

- 'They shall not pass!' -

Addressing a crowd of euphoric activists shouting "No pasaran!" -- the famous anti-fascist slogan of Spain's 1936-1939 civil war meaning "They shall not pass!" -- Sanchez was jubilant.


"The backwards-looking bloc that wanted to roll back all the progress we made over the past four years has failed," said a clearly jubilant Sanchez who focused his campaign on the danger of a PP-Vox government.

"There are many more who want Spain to keep advancing than those who want to go backwards," he said.


With their 153 lawmakers, the Socialists and Sumar will need the support of several regional formations such as the left-wing Catalan separatist ERC party or the pro-independence Basque party EH Bildu, seen as the heir of the now-defunct armed separatist group ETA.

But they will also have to negotiate the abstention of the hardline Catalan separatist party JxCat which has vowed not to help Sanchez remain in power without something in return.

If everything came together, Sanchez could assemble 172 lawmakers behind him, which is more than Feijoo, that would be enough to secure a second parliamentary investiture vote which only requires a simple majority.

Otherwise, Spain -- which held four general elections between 2015 and 2019 -- could find itself once again in deadlock and forced to call a new vote.

Feijoo, who narrowly won the election on paper, has insisted he has the right to form a government.

"As the candidate of the most-voted party, I believe it's my duty... to try and govern our country," he told supporters after results came in.

"Our duty now is to ensure that Spain does not enter a period of uncertainty."

- 'Don't block me' -

"It is with great determination that I will take on the task of take on the task of opening dialogue to form a government," he said, urging the Socialists not "block" his efforts.

Without an absolute majority, Feijoo would seek to form a minority government but for that he would need the Socialists to abstain during any investiture vote in parliament -- which they have no intention of doing.

Jose Pablo Ferrandiz, a director at polling company Ipsos, said the PP had run a bad campaign, adding Feijoo's boycott of the final TV debate between candidates was a bad decision.

"That is probably what caused the desmobilisation" of PP voters, he told Spanish public radio.

Sanchez, 51, called the snap polls in late May after his Socialist party and its far-left junior coalition partners suffered a drubbing in local and regional elections in which the right surged.

He focused his campaign on warning about the danger of a PP-Vox government in order to mobilise the electorate in a strategy that appears to have paid off, with turnout reaching almost 70 percent, some 3.5 percentage points higher than in 2019.

The vote has been closely watched from abroad over the possibility, which now seems unlikely, of a government in which the far right held its first share of power since the Franco dictatorship ended in 1975.

Vox, which jointly rules three of Spain's 17 regions with the PP, pledged to roll back laws on gender violence, LGBTQ rights, abortion and euthanasia, as well as a democratic memory law honouring the victims of the dictatorship.

bur-hmw-ds/jmm



Spain's election: No party received enough votes to form a government


Catherine Garcia, Night editor
THE WEEK
Sun, July 23, 2023 at 7:51 PM

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez Alejandro Martinez Velez / Europa Press via Getty Images

There was no clear winner in Spain's election on Sunday, with both the governing Socialists and opposition center-right Popular Party failing to win the 176 seats needed to form a government.

With 100% of the votes counted, the Popular Party won 136 seats and the Socialists won 122 seats. The Socialists fared better at the polls than expected, while the Popular Party underperformed. "Spain has been clear," Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez told supporters in Madrid. "The bloc of devolution, of retrocession, that wants to take back all we have achieved, of machismo, has failed."

The far-right Vox Party, which has called for an end to progressive laws for women and a reversal of LGBTQ+ rights, lost 19 of its 52 seats, but had it been able to garner a little more support, Vox could have formed a conservative coalition with the Popular Party. This would have put Spain "on the cusp of its furthest right government since the death of its longtime dictator Francisco Franco in 1975," The Washington Post reported.

Sanchez could stay in power if the blocs opposed to both the Popular Party and Vox throw their support behind him. If no governing coalition can be formed and there's a hung parliament, Spaniards may have to head to the polls yet again; already, there have been five elections in eight years.

Spain at risk of political gridlock after conservative win falls short of toppling PM Sánchez

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(AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)


CIARÁN GILES and JOSEPH WILSON
Updated Sun, July 23, 2023 at 6:49 PM 

MADRID (AP) — Spain appears headed for political gridlock after Sunday's inconclusive national elections left parties on both the right and left without a clear path toward forging a new government.

The conservative Popular Party won the elections, but it fell short of its hopes of scoring a much bigger victory and forcing the removal of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Instead, the party led by candidate Alberto Núñez Feijóo performed below the expectations of most campaign polls.

Even though Sánchez’s Socialists finished second, they and their allied parties celebrated the outcome as a victory since their combined forces gained slightly more seats than the PP and the far-right. The bloc that could likely support Sánchez totaled 172 seats; the right bloc behind Feijóo, 170.

“It was a Pyrrhic victory for the Popular Party, which is unable to form a government," said political analyst Verónica Fumanal, adding the conservatives will now have to reach out to the far-right, and even then it won't be enough. “I see a deadlock scenario in the Parliament.”

The closer-than-expected outcome was likely to produce weeks of political jockeying and uncertainty over the country's future leadership. The next prime minister only would be voted on once lawmakers are installed in the new Congress of Deputies.

But the chances of Sánchez picking up the support of 176 lawmakers — the absolute majority in the Madrid-based Lower House of Parliament — needed to form a government are not great either. The divided results have made the hardline Catalan separatist party Junts (Together) emerge as Sánchez’s potential kingmaker. If Junts asks for a referendum on independence for northeast Catalonia, that would likely be far too costly a price for Sánchez to pay.

“We won’t make Pedro Sánchez PM in exchange for nothing,” Míriam Nogueras of Junts said after the results left her party holding the keys to power.

With 98% of votes counted, PP is on track for 136 seats. Even with the 33 seats that the far-right Vox is poised to get and the one seat going to an allied party, the PP would still be seven seats from the absolute majority.

The Socialists are set to take 122 seats, two more than they had. But Sánchez can likely call on the 31 seats of its junior coalition partner Sumar (Joining Forces) and several smaller forces to at least total more than the sum of the right-wing parties.

“Spain and all the citizens who have voted have made themselves clear. The backward-looking bloc that wanted to undo all that we have done has failed,” Sánchez told a jubilant crowd gathered at Socialists’ headquarters in Madrid.

After his party took a beating in regional and local elections in May, Sánchez could have waited until December to face a national vote. Instead, he stunned his rivals by moving up the vote in hopes of gaining a bigger boost from his supporters.

Even if this goes to a new ballot, Sánchez can add this election night to yet another comeback in his career that has been built around beating the odds. The 51-year-old Sánchez had to mount a mutiny among rank-and-file Socialists to return to heading his party before he won Spain’s only no-confidence vote to oust his PP predecessor in 2018.

But Feijóo would probably trade spots with his rival if he could.

Feijóo claimed his right to form a government as the most voted party in the election, adding he was “proud” of what his party’s first national election victory since 2016.

“We have won the elections, it corresponds to us to form a government like it has always happened in Spanish democracy,” he said, addressing a crowd aflutter with Spanish flags.

Feijóo focused the PP’s campaign not on what he would do as prime minister, but rather as an attack on what he called the untrustworthiness of Sánchez. The strategy failed. The Socialists and other leftist parties seem to have motivated their voters by drumming up fear of having the anti-feminist, ultra-nationalist Vox in power as a junior member of a possible coalition with the PP.

A PP-Vox government would have meant another EU member has moved firmly to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned about what such a shift would portend for EU immigration and climate policies.

Vox, which had hoped to force its way into power much as other far-right parties have done in other European countries, lost 19 seats from four years earlier.

Vox leader Santiago Abascal said that the Socialists’ results were “bad news for Spaniards.”

“Pedro Sánchez, despite losing the elections, can block (Feijóo’s) investiture and, even worse, Pedro Sánchez could even be invested with the support of communism, the coup-seeking separatism and terrorism, all of whom will now have more leverage in the blackmail than in his previous term," he said.

Yet it seems that the specter of the far-right taking a seat in government, albeit as a junior member to the PP, for the first time since the 20th-century dictatorship of Francisco Franco had proved to be key to the left’s resurgence.

Feijóo had tried to distance his PP from Vox during the campaign, refusing to say that a national coalition was a possibility. But Sánchez, in moving up the election, made the campaign coincide with the PP and Vox striking deals to govern together in several town halls and regional governments following the May ballots.

Even though Feijóo had pledged he would maintain his party’s commitment to fighting gender violence, Vox campaigned on rolling back gender violence laws. And they both agree on wanting to repeal a new transgender rights law and a democratic memory law that seeks to help families wanting to unearth the thousands of victims of Franco’s regime still missing in mass graves.

“PP has been a victim of its expectations, and the Socialists have been able to capitalize on the fear of the arrival of Vox. Bringing forward the elections has turned out to be the right decision for Pedro Sánchez,” said Manuel Mostaza, director of Public Policy at Spanish consultancy firm Atrevia.

Spain’s new Parliament will meet in a month. King Felipe VI then appoints one of the party leaders to submit him or herself to a parliamentary vote to form a new government. Lawmakers have a maximum period of three months to reach an agreement. Otherwise, new elections would be triggered.

The election took place at the height of summer, with millions of voters likely to be vacationing away from their regular polling places. However, postal voting requests soared.

Coming on the tail of a month of heat waves, temperatures were expected to average above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), or 5 to 10 degrees Celsius above normal in many parts of the country. Authorities distributed fans to many of the stations.

“We have the heat, but the right to exercise our vote freely is stronger than the heat,” said Rosa María Valladolid-Prieto, 79, in Barcelona.

____

Associated Press writer Joseph Wilson reported from Barcelona. AP journalists Aritz Parra, Renata Brito, David Brunat, Iain Sullivan, María Gestoso, Alicia Léon and José María García contributed to this report.



Specter of right wing entering Spanish government fades after inconclusive national election



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JOSEPH WILSON and CIARÁN GILES
Updated Mon, July 24, 2023 at 3:19 AM 


MADRID (AP) — Spain may be facing political gridlock and possibly a new election, but a national ballot produced one result that will be welcomed across the capitals of Europe: a far-right party aiming to get its hands on the levers of power was thwarted.

Spain’s Vox party, with its ultranationalist bent, lost support among voters in Sunday's election, dashing its hopes to be a kingmaker and enter a governing coalition that would have given the far right its first share of power in Spain since Francisco Franco’s 20th century dictatorship.

The mainstream conservative Popular Party won the election, but performed well below polling data that had forecast it could oust Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez if it formed a government with Vox as a junior partner.

Even though Sánchez’s Socialists finished second, they and their allied parties celebrated the outcome as a victory since their combined forces gained slightly more seats than the Popular Party and Vox. The bloc that would likely support Sánchez totaled 172 seats, while parties on the right had 170.


“This is a major victory for the left,” Dr. Jason Xidias, a lecturer in Political Science at New York University’s Madrid campus, said Monday.

Political horse-trading in coming weeks, when smaller regional parties could offer their support for a government in return for concessions, will be “very complicated,” Xidias said.

The closer-than-expected outcome placed a question mark over Spain’s future leadership. But the Popular Party insisted it could not be denied its shot at forming a government.

“Nobody would understand it now if (other parties) all came together to prevent the party that won the elections from becoming the government,” the PP’s deputy secretary Miguel Tellado told public broadcaster RTVE on Monday.

Sánchez put together Spain’s first ever coalition government, which took power in Jan. 2020. Sánchez has been Spain’s prime minister since 2018.

Socialist voter Delphine Fernández said she hopes Sánchez can stay in power. She is crossing her fingers that she and the 37 million Spaniards called to vote don’t have to do it all over again like in 2019, when Sánchez had to score back-to-back election victories before he was able to forge a coalition government.

“It was always going to be difficult. Now we are (practically) tied, but let’s see if we can still govern,” said Fernández, a lawyer. “I don't want to vote again in a few weeks. It's now or never.”

But the chances of Sánchez picking up the support of the 176 lawmakers needed to have an absolute majority in the Madrid-based Lower House of Parliament are not great.

The divided results have made the Catalan separatist party Junts (Together) key to Sánchez forming a government. But if Junts asked for a referendum on independence for northeast Catalonia, that would likely be far too costly a price for Sánchez to pay.

“We won’t make Pedro Sánchez PM in exchange for nothing,” Míriam Nogueras of Junts said.

With all votes counted, the Popular Party collected 136 seats of the 350 up for grabs. Even with the 33 seats that the far-right Vox got and the one seat going to an allied party, the PP was still seven seats short of a majority.

The Socialists gathered 122 seats, two more than they previously held. Sánchez could likely call on the 31 seats of its junior coalition partner Sumar (Joining Forces) and several smaller parties to at least total more than the sum of the right-wing parties, but also would fall four short of a majority unless Junts joined them.

“Spain and all the citizens who have voted have made themselves clear. The backward-looking bloc that wanted to undo all that we have done has failed,” Sánchez told a jubilant crowd gathered at Socialists’ headquarters in Madrid.

After his party took a beating in regional and local elections in May, Sánchez could have waited until December to face a national vote. Instead, he stunned his rivals by moving up the vote in hopes of gaining a bigger boost from his supporters.

Sánchez can add this election night to yet another comeback in his career that has been built around beating the odds. The 51-year-old had to mount a mutiny among rank-and-file Socialists to return to heading his party before he won Spain’s only no-confidence vote to oust his Popular Party predecessor in 2018.

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo seemed even more unlikely to put together a majority.

Feijóo focused the PP’s campaign on what he called the lack of trustworthiness of Sánchez. The Socialists and other leftist parties, meanwhile, drummed on the fear of having Vox in power as a junior partner in a PP-led coalition.

A PP-Vox government would have meant another EU member moved firmly to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned about what such a shift would portend for EU immigration and climate policies.

Vox, however, lost 19 seats from four years earlier. The election took place during Spain’s six-month rotating presidency of the European Union, and a strong Vox showing would have sent shockwaves through EU politics.

Feijóo sought to distance the PP from Vox during the campaign. But Sánchez, in moving up the election, made the campaign coincide with the PP and Vox striking deals to govern together in town halls and regional governments following the May ballots.

Vox campaigned on rolling back gender violence laws. And both the PP and Vox agreed on wanting to repeal a new transgender rights law and a democratic memory law that seeks to help families wanting to unearth the thousands of victims of Franco’s regime still missing in mass graves.

“PP has been a victim of its expectations, and the Socialists have been able to capitalize on the fear of the arrival of Vox. Bringing forward the elections has turned out to be the right decision for Pedro Sánchez,” said Manuel Mostaza, director of Public Policy at the Spanish consulting firm Atrevia.

Spain’s new Parliament will meet in a month. King Felipe VI then appoints one of the party leaders to submit him or herself to a parliamentary vote to form a new government. Lawmakers have a maximum period of three months to reach an agreement. Otherwise, new elections would be triggered.

___

Wilson reported from Barcelona. AP journalists Aritz Parra, Renata Brito, David Brunat, Iain Sullivan, María Gestoso, Alicia Léon and José María García contributed to this report.


Spanish Right Set to Oust Sanchez With Slim Majority, Poll Shows




Alonso Soto
Sun, July 23, 2023 at 12:28 PM 

(Bloomberg) -- Spanish conservative leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo won the most seats in Sunday’s election and is on track to govern with the support of the far-right group Vox, according to opinion polls.

Feijoo’s People’s Party is set to claim about 150 seats in the 350-strong parliament while Vox will get around 31, according to a survey by GAD3, which was published when voting closed at 8 pm in Madrid. The Socialists were set to win 112 seats.

That result would bring down the curtain on five years of Socialist government under Pedro Sanchez and add momentum to the conservative shift across Europe. Giorgia Meloni’s victory in Italy last year marked a breakthrough for the far-right while Finland’s new center-right government is also backed by nationalists while support for the AfD is surging in Germany.

While both parties share mostly liberal economic views, Vox would push PP to take a harder line on hot-button issues like LGBTQ rights and the environment.

“In a coalition government, Vox will probably not get all the extreme and controversial measures it wants, but it will have influence and push policies further to the right,” said Ramon Mateo, director of policy for Madrid-based consultancy BeBartlet. “They will focus on reversing what they see as progressive policies in agriculture, security, culture and education.”

A second poll by Sigma Dos for Spain’s state broadcaster suggested that the result could still be tight. If projected that the PP will get between 145 and 150 seats with Vox getting between 24 and 27. If the two parties fall short of an absolute majority, they may struggle to win additional support and Spain could be heading for extended gridlock.

Vox leader Santiago Abascal has already warned he wants a tougher stance against regional separatists, especially the Catalan politicians who six years ago attempted to break away from Spain.

Feijoo has promised to shutter the Ministry for Equality and to repeal a trans-rights law that made it easier for anyone over the age of 16 to change gender in official documents.

Feijoo, a 61-year-old career politician, needs to convince Vox to support him or abstain in an investiture vote in parliament expected in the coming weeks. Feijoo would need 176 votes to win the initial investiture vote, but only a simple majority in a second ballot 48 hours later.

--With assistance from Zoe Schneeweiss.

Feijoo: the mild-mannered moderate who wants to be Spain's PM

Hazel WARD
Sun, July 23, 2023 

Galician-born Alberto Nunez Feijoo is hoping to become the first prime minister to come from rural Spain (Thomas COEX)

Alberto Nunez Feijoo, whose right-wing Popular Party won Spain's snap election but without support to form a government, has built his reputation on being a moderate but struggled to square the circle of an alliance with the far right.

A native of Galicia in the rural northwest, the 61-year-old had hoped his moderate stance and dull-but-dependable brand would win over the electorate during Spain's snap election.

And almost all the polls concurred, while indicating Feijoo's right-wing party would most certainly need support from the far-right Vox to govern.

So Feijoo turned his sights on Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez with a campaign focused on "overthrowing Sanchismo" which would upend many of the Socialist leader's policies, while promising he would be a steady hand on the tiller.

Sanchez, by contrast, staked everything on warning about the dangers of a PP-Vox government.

And the strategy appeared to work: although Feijoo's PP won, it fell far short of the numbers expected and was unable to form a majority, even with the support of Vox.

- A bitter pill -

It was a bitter pill for a politician who until last year spent all his political career in Galicia where he was first elected regional leader in 2009 with an absolute majority -- a feat he would go on to repeat three more times.

When he took over as head of the PP in April 2022, he was hailed as a pragmatic moderate and a safe pair of hands to lead a party recovering from one of the worst internal crises in its history.

"Feijoo is very predictable, he likes to show off his transparency and present himself as a reliable, trustworthy politician," said Fran Balado, a Galician journalist and author of the book "Feijoo's Journey" (2021).

"He's a moderate because he manages to attract progressive voters and he's a pragmatist whom people trust," he told AFP.

In the weeks leading up to the vote, questions resurfaced about Feijoo's ties with Marcial Dorado, a notorious tobacco smuggler involved in extensive money laundering who was later convicted for drug trafficking.

The issue first came up in 2013 after El Pais published photos of them in the mid-90s on Dorado's boat and on holiday in Ibiza and the Canary Islands when Feijoo headed Galicia's health service.

At the time, Feijoo said he "knew nothing about (Dorado's) activities", insisting they didn't have "a close friendship".

But fellow Galician Yolanda Diaz, head of the radical-left Sumar, challenged his assertion of innocence just before the vote, saying: "Tell us what you were doing with Marcial Dorado when all of Spain knew who he was."

- From law student to civil servant -

Born on September 10, 1961, in the village of Os Peares, Feijoo grew up in a working-class family to a father who worked in construction and a mother who ran a grocery shop.

A studious child, he read law in Santiago de Compostela, hoping to become a judge. But when his father was left jobless, he pitched in to help, becoming a civil servant in 1985.

It was in 1991 that he first got his foot on the political ladder, taking a job at Galicia's agriculture ministry with a politician who later became Spain's health minister and took Feijoo with him to Madrid in 1996.

There, Feijoo ran Insalud, Spain's national health service at the time. In 2000, he took over as head of the Correos postal service. Three years later, he returned to Galicia and in 2006, became the PP's regional head there, later leading it to victory in 2009.

Despite saying his "highest political ambition" was to be Galicia's leader, the village boy from Os Peares packed his bags and moved to Madrid last year, hoping to become "the first prime minister from rural Spain".

- Austere neat-freak -


Despite his years in politics, Feijoo has no experience of international diplomacy and like most Spanish premiers -- Sanchez being the exception -- he does not speak English, raising eyebrows earlier this year after referring to US rock legend Bruce Springsteen as "Bruce Sprinter".

Normally very guarded about his private life, he spoke to El Mundo's

Yo Dona woman's magazine in March about becoming a father in his mid-50s with his partner Eva Cardenas, saying it was the "best gift life has given me".

"I didn't want children before.. (but) I'm very happy to have had a son just before the final whistle," said Feijoo, who can be seen walking through Madrid's Chamartin district with his son Alberto, 6, and their schnauzer Cata.

Diplomatically described as "rather austere", Feijoo told the magazine he was a "neat-freak and perfectionist" who will ring his mum Sira if he's had "a bad day".

hmw/mtp

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