(Bloomberg) -- UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is doing worse than his short-lived predecessor Liz Truss among the voters that last put the Conservatives in power, as many flock to the right-wing Reform Party, a major study by a pollster has found.

Sunak has presided over a “year of decline” that’s caused an “implosion” in the Tory vote, putting the opposition Labour Party firmly on course for power, according to the deep-dive analysis of polls conducted in Britain in the last 18 months, carried out by JL Partners.

Just 59% of voters who backed the Conservatives under Boris Johnson at the 2019 election are sticking with the party under Sunak, the report found. That’s down from 74% in August 2022, and from 63% in the aftermath of Truss’s disastrous “mini-budget” in September 2022, which roiled markets and brought about the abrupt end of her premiership. That event had been seen as the polling nadir for the governing Tory party.

It’s the rise of Reform UK, a right-wing anti-immigration party founded with the support of former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, that’s most hurting the polling performance of the Conservatives under Sunak, JL Partners said. 

While some 5% of 2019 Tory voters have switched to the centrist Liberal Democrat party, 15% are now backing Reform. That’s around 1.5 million people. Reform has overtaken the Lib Dems as the third party in the North of England, Midlands and Wales, the report found, with the latter party now polling worse than its 2019 result. Around 18% of 2019 Tory votes have gone to Labour.


Struggles

In a sign of the struggles Sunak’s government has faced in recent weeks, the Tories have lost a net 520,000 votes since the prime minister’s speech at the Conservative Party conference at the beginning of October, it also found.

The report will pile pressure on Sunak, who has failed to close the gap with Labour leader Keir Starmer, leading to reports of increasing frustration in Downing Street and among senior ministers in the Cabinet

Sunak is due to make a decision on a new migration policy after his plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda was ruled unlawful by the UK’s top court last month. That call — and how far Sunak is willing to push Britain’s commitments to international human rights pacts in order to enact a hardline migration policy — risks angering both centrist and right-wing lawmakers in his party. 

MPs on the right are likely to seize on the polling as they make the case for a tougher approach on borders.

Read more: Sunak Faces Perilous Holiday as Gloom Grows Over Migration Plans

JL Partners analyzed data from nine polling firms covering July 2022 to November 2023, including their own, to plot the voting intention of 2019 Conservative voters. The study provides a deeper and more nuanced picture of public opinion ahead of the next general election than typical top-line voting intention surveys, which offer a snapshot of opinion at a moment in time, the pollster said. An election is due in UK by January 2025.

The only respite for Sunak in the data is that around half of voters who say they are undecided are expected to vote Conservative on election day, according to the firm’s modeling. A “shy Tory” effect could reduce Labour’s margin of victory, but was unlikely to save the Conservatives, the report concluded.

“Rishi Sunak can count on some undecided voters to narrow the Labour lead, and the British public is hardly elated by the prospect of a Labour government,” James Johnson, the founder of JL Partners, said. “That’s where the good news for the Tories stops: They are in dire straits.”

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.


Rishi Sunak’s Popularity Declines Among

 

Conservative Voters, Reveals Polling Study


By: BNN Corresondents

Published: December 4, 2023

A recent significant polling study by JL Partners has outlined a surprising decline in the popularity of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak among Conservative voters. The downward shift is more notable when compared to the support his predecessor, Liz Truss, enjoyed during her tenure. This analysis comes during a period considered a ‘year of decline’ for the Conservative Party.

Shift in Conservative Voter’s Loyalty

The study indicates a substantial shift of Conservative voters towards the right-wing Reform Party. This gradual migration is seen as a direct consequence of Sunak’s dwindling popularity and is contributing to an erosion of the Conservatives’ voter base. The political landscape is being reshaped as the voter base’s loyalty wavers amid internal party dynamics and national issues.

Labour Party’s Ascendancy

As a result of this political turbulence, the Labour Party is steadily gaining momentum and is now seen as the expected frontrunner for the next election. This shift in political allegiance underlines the challenges Sunak faces in retaining the electorate that previously cemented the Conservatives’ position in power.

Significant Findings

The study analyzed polling data from the past 18 months in Britain, capturing the political shifts and sentiment among voters. With Sunak’s popularity reportedly hitting an all-time low among Tory members, the Conservatives are struggling to regain their foothold. Despite the PM’s attempts to revive the party’s fortunes, the Tories remain well behind Labour in the opinion polls.

In conclusion, the findings underscore the intricate dynamics of political loyalty and the challenges that leaders face in maintaining their popularity. As the UK’s political landscape continues to evolve, the voters’ shift in allegiance signals potential changes in the country’s future leadership.