December 27, 2025
By: Brandon J. Weichert
Blog Brand: The Buzz
The new Chinese carrier—the fourth in its inventory—is expected to enter service in the 2030s, well after China’s projected attack on Taiwan in 2027.
China has initiated construction of its first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier at the iconic Dalian shipyards in northeastern China. The National Institute for Basic Policy Research (NIPPR), a think tank, believes that recent satellite imagery of work begun at the Dalian shipyard is consistent with the kind of work that would occur when beginning construction on a technically complex, large, nuclear-powered vessel.
What’s more, the facility where this potential nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is being constructed is run by Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co, Ltd. This is the same group and facility that produced other, earlier domestically made aircraft carriers for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
What (Little) We Know About China’s New Carrier Project
One analysis notes how, in February of this year, large wooden supports used during large ship construction—keel blocks—running more than 886 feet (270 meters) were visible. This indicated that a massive new ship was being built at this facility.
Later, on November 10 of this year, there appeared a 492 foot (150 meter) by 141 foot (43 meter) was in the dock. Defence Blog, an online defense publication, reported that “inside the structure, two rectangular frames, each measuring approximately [52 feet by 45 feet] could be seen.”
The NIPPR report explains that similar structures were not present when the Shandong, the last Chinese aircraft carrier to be built at the facility, was constructed by Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co, Ltd.
The current rotation of China’s conventionally powered aircraft carriers indicates a clear strategy by the PLAN to use the carriers within the First Island Chain (the region running from the Kamchatka Peninsula through Japan and Taiwan down to the Philippines). Under the protection of China’s massive anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) shield that stretches across most of the First Island Chain, the PLAN could both stunt any US Navy power projection with their A2/AD capabilities while their carriers deployed off the coast of, say, Taiwan to launch massive numbers of warplanes at the island.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense reports that their intelligence indicates a massive expansion occurring at the PLAN base in Qingdao. This base is the current homeport of the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier.
Japan’s Defense Ministry assesses that piers are being expanded, demagnetization facilities are being installed (to reduce a ship’s magnetic signature), and a new naval airfield is being built for carrier landing training facilities and hangars for fighter planes.
Nuclear-Powered Carriers Would Mark a True Strategic Shift for China
The nuclear-powered carrier that China is likely building will not be ready until the 2030s. However, the Pentagon and most experts believe that China will try to attack Taiwan by 2027. In other words, this carrier is likely designed for China’s overarching strategy after they believe Taiwan is successfully absorbed into their new Asian co-prosperity sphere.
A nuclear-powered carrier will project power beyond the island chains. Of course, it will be vulnerable to the same A2/AD systems that American carriers are exposed to. Yet, in terms of showing the flag, a nuclear-powered carrier is still quite a statement.
Unlike the United States, which struggles to build even one ship in less than six years, China’s shipyards are the most robust and efficient in the world. And China’s ability to cheaply, reliably mass produce nuclear-powered aircraft carriers should not be underestimated. What this means is that even Chinese nuclear-powered carriers would be expendable and replaceable.
Of course, there is no guarantee that China can take Taiwan. But there’s also a decreasing chance that the US and their allies will be able to stop China from doing so—especially if the political winds on the besieged islands shift away from the pro-Independence element on the island and toward the pro-China Kuomintang.
What this indicates is that China is not going away. It is not declining. Their leaders, whatever economic or political headwinds they may face, are planning to expand Chinese reach well into the blue waters of the Pacific with nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. And, unlike America, China possesses the means and will to mass-produce the systems they need to achieve such a vision.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
The new Chinese carrier—the fourth in its inventory—is expected to enter service in the 2030s, well after China’s projected attack on Taiwan in 2027.
China has initiated construction of its first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier at the iconic Dalian shipyards in northeastern China. The National Institute for Basic Policy Research (NIPPR), a think tank, believes that recent satellite imagery of work begun at the Dalian shipyard is consistent with the kind of work that would occur when beginning construction on a technically complex, large, nuclear-powered vessel.
What’s more, the facility where this potential nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is being constructed is run by Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co, Ltd. This is the same group and facility that produced other, earlier domestically made aircraft carriers for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
What (Little) We Know About China’s New Carrier Project
One analysis notes how, in February of this year, large wooden supports used during large ship construction—keel blocks—running more than 886 feet (270 meters) were visible. This indicated that a massive new ship was being built at this facility.
Later, on November 10 of this year, there appeared a 492 foot (150 meter) by 141 foot (43 meter) was in the dock. Defence Blog, an online defense publication, reported that “inside the structure, two rectangular frames, each measuring approximately [52 feet by 45 feet] could be seen.”
The NIPPR report explains that similar structures were not present when the Shandong, the last Chinese aircraft carrier to be built at the facility, was constructed by Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co, Ltd.
The current rotation of China’s conventionally powered aircraft carriers indicates a clear strategy by the PLAN to use the carriers within the First Island Chain (the region running from the Kamchatka Peninsula through Japan and Taiwan down to the Philippines). Under the protection of China’s massive anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) shield that stretches across most of the First Island Chain, the PLAN could both stunt any US Navy power projection with their A2/AD capabilities while their carriers deployed off the coast of, say, Taiwan to launch massive numbers of warplanes at the island.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense reports that their intelligence indicates a massive expansion occurring at the PLAN base in Qingdao. This base is the current homeport of the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier.
Japan’s Defense Ministry assesses that piers are being expanded, demagnetization facilities are being installed (to reduce a ship’s magnetic signature), and a new naval airfield is being built for carrier landing training facilities and hangars for fighter planes.
Nuclear-Powered Carriers Would Mark a True Strategic Shift for China
The nuclear-powered carrier that China is likely building will not be ready until the 2030s. However, the Pentagon and most experts believe that China will try to attack Taiwan by 2027. In other words, this carrier is likely designed for China’s overarching strategy after they believe Taiwan is successfully absorbed into their new Asian co-prosperity sphere.
A nuclear-powered carrier will project power beyond the island chains. Of course, it will be vulnerable to the same A2/AD systems that American carriers are exposed to. Yet, in terms of showing the flag, a nuclear-powered carrier is still quite a statement.
Unlike the United States, which struggles to build even one ship in less than six years, China’s shipyards are the most robust and efficient in the world. And China’s ability to cheaply, reliably mass produce nuclear-powered aircraft carriers should not be underestimated. What this means is that even Chinese nuclear-powered carriers would be expendable and replaceable.
Of course, there is no guarantee that China can take Taiwan. But there’s also a decreasing chance that the US and their allies will be able to stop China from doing so—especially if the political winds on the besieged islands shift away from the pro-Independence element on the island and toward the pro-China Kuomintang.
What this indicates is that China is not going away. It is not declining. Their leaders, whatever economic or political headwinds they may face, are planning to expand Chinese reach well into the blue waters of the Pacific with nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. And, unlike America, China possesses the means and will to mass-produce the systems they need to achieve such a vision.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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