Russia is building more than 200 missiles and about 10,000 strike drones a month, Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) told NV on October 20.
The agency puts the stockpile as of October at up to 700 ballistic missiles, several thousand cruise missiles of various types and more than 6,000 strike drones. Of the missiles coming off the lines each month, 110 are ballistic.
That is a war industry already running past the plan Ukrainian intelligence set out for it a year ago, when it reported a Russian aim to double missile output to 2,500 a year and lift drone production to 2,700 a month. The headline missile rate annualises to more than 2,400 a year, while the named classes add up to about 225 a month; the drone figure is almost four times the stated 2,700-a-month plan. Ukraine, which started the war with no missile industry of its own, still counts its missile output in the hundreds a year.
Russia already outbuilds Ukraine's 2027 missile target. Annual output of missiles and of drones of all types, the current rate against the stated plan or 2027 target. Russian missile output is GUR's monthly figure annualised; Russia's 2,500-a-year plan dates from 2025 and no 2027 figure has been published. Drone totals include FPV models and are not like for like with long-range strike output.
Ukraine now makes 10mn drones a year and wants 20mn with help from its partners, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in July, against about 4mn in 2025. Its missile and drone arsenal is the mirror image of Russia's: the missile side rests on the Neptune and the Flamingo, whose maker Fire Point plans serial production from 2027 at up to seven a day, or 2,555 missiles a year, with a ballistic programme that saw its first combat use, of the FP-7, in October.
Russian missiles
The Kh-101 remains the mainstay of Russia's mass strikes, with a monthly plan of more than 80 and factories said to be beating it. Iskander-M output runs at up to 65 a month against a stock of about 115.
The RM-48U, an S-300PM and S-400 air defence missile adapted to hit ground targets, is made at about 40 a month from a stock of up to 400, and the sea-launched Kalibr at about 29 against more than 450 held. Most new Kalibrs go to the strategic reserve and to the fleets because Ukrainian air defences shoot down so many, the agency said.
Russian output a month by class, October 2026, with the stockpile in brackets. Tsirkon and Oniks are given by GUR as year-to-date and seven-month totals and are shown here as a monthly average; Kinzhal production is suspended. GUR's drone total of 10,000 a month is larger than the variants it names, and the residual is plotted as unaccounted for. Source: Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR).
Stocks of the modernised Oniks anti-ship missile, now given a longer range and a heavier warhead, exceed 600, of which more than 55 were built in the first seven months of 2026.
The hypersonic Tsirkon passes 120, with just over 30 made this year. Production of the Kinzhal aeroballistic missile has been suspended because it was not accurate enough, and that capacity switched to conventional ballistics.
The list leaves out the Banderol, the cheap light cruise missile Russia put into mass production in August.
Russian drones
On drones the agency gives a total of 10,000 one-way attack aircraft a month and an operational reserve of about 6,200 Geran airframes of all modifications, jet-powered ones included. Since the summer the effort has gone into the jet Geran-4 and Geran-5, at up to 4,000 a month, alongside up to 2,000 piston Geran-2s and hundreds of plywood and foam Gerbera decoys flown to drain air defences and expose Ukrainian launcher positions.
This year's state order for Geran-type and decoy drones at the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan has passed 100,000 units, a figure intelligence said showed "a systemic bet by the enemy on exhausting the Ukrainian air defence system", Ukrainska Pravda reported on October 21.
Russia is also developing a modernised Iskander-M with a projected range of 550-700 km, against up to 500 km now. GUR deputy head Vadym Skibitskyi said in September that Russia planned to finish testing a new ballistic missile reaching 800 km by the end of 2026, and in August he put the defence industry's performance against its own missile plans at 110-120%.
Ukraine goes into winter with its interceptor missiles run dry and Russia again working to freeze it into submission by taking down the grid.
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