It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thousands of dengue forecasting models have been published, but few have been tested in real public-health settings. Now, researchers from the US and Australia are launching a field evaluation in Vietnam to see whether a new early-warning platform can support earlier interventions against a disease that WHO says puts nearly half the world’s population at risk.
Southern Cross University (Aus) is leading the second phase of this multi-year collaboration, working alongside the University of Queensland (Aus), Yale University (USA) and Vietnam’s National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology. This phase has focused on translating predictive modelling into E-Dengue* – an open-source, user-friendly software system tailored for district-level decision-making.
Southern Cross University researcher Dr Vinh Bui said the team’s priority has been creating a tool that frontline staff can use in real-world conditions.
“There are thousands of published studies on dengue prediction models, but very few become tools that are practical for local teams,” said Dr Bui.
“Our goal in this stage has been to build a tool that is reliable, actionable, fast and intuitive – something that supports, rather than complicates, routine public health work.”
With the predictive models developed and the E-Dengue platform built, the project is now entering its most critical stage: integrating the tool into Vietnam’s routine dengue surveillance and beginning a large cluster randomised controlled trial to test whether earlier warnings lead to earlier action and fewer outbreaks.
“We’ve built a tool with strong potential, but the critical test is ahead of us,” said Dr Bui
“The next three years will tell us whether early warnings lead to earlier, better-targeted interventions – and whether this improves health outcomes.”
Although interest in disease early-warning systems is growing, very few have been adopted into routine practice anywhere in the world. The research team says understanding why is just as important as building the technology.
This work is guided by the project teams' recently published “Useful, Usable, Used (3U) Framework” in Nature Communications, which examines how digital prediction tools can move from innovation to real-world adoption.
Yale University researcher Dr Robert Dubrow said the next stage of the collaboration will provide crucial evidence on whether early-warning systems can shift dengue control from a reactive to a proactive approach.
“Our team at Yale has led the development of the predictive model underpinning the platform,” Dr Dubrow said.
“We now look forward to working with our Vietnamese and Australian partners to rigorously evaluate whether early warnings change outcomes in practice.”
Interest in the approach is emerging from neighbouring countries, including Thailand, Laos and Cambodia, where dengue risk is rising under climate and population pressures.
Full deployment of the tool across selected districts in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region will begin in early 2026. During 2026–2028, E-Dengue will be used in real public health decision-making while the research team conducts the randomised controlled trial and associated studies.
“This is a challenging and complex process,” said University of Queensland Associate Professor Dung Phung.
“Our long-term aim is to develop a tool that Vietnam’s Ministry of Health sees value in maintaining beyond the life of the project.”
*Please note the link to the E-Dengue site shows a simulation of the platform.
Aedes mosquito. This species can transmit diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, and Zika.
Credit
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
MEDIA INVITATION TO VIRTUAL BRIEFING
Media are invited to attend a virtual briefing on 18 December 2025 at 10.30am AEDT (Sydney, Australia), featuring the researchers leading the project. A recording of the briefing will be available following the event, and additional assets – including video and images – can be requested through the Southern Cross University media team at scumedia@scu.edu.au.
A Striking Phenotype: The modified female is instantly recognizable by her yellow body, contrasting sharply with the dark exterior of the wild-type female.
Researchers have developed a new “color-coded” genetic method that makes it easy to distinguish male and female mosquitoes. This innovation can help solve a major bottleneck in mosquito control strategies that rely on releasing only sterile males. The approach uses gene editing to produce dark males and pale females, offering a practical and safer alternative to current sex-separation techniques.
A new study led by Doron Zaada and Prof. Philippos Papathanos from the Department of Entomology at Hebrew University, introduces a powerful genetic approach for separating male and female mosquitoes, an essential step for large-scale mosquito control programs aimed at reducing the spread of infectious diseases such as Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya.
Mosquito control strategies based on the mass release of males rely on the complete removal of females, which bite and transmit disease. Existing separation methods, largely based on size differences at the pupal stage, are labor-intensive, difficult to scale, and prone to letting biting females slip through. This new study presents a genetically engineered "Genetic Sexing Strain" (GSS) of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) that allows sexes to be sorted automatically based on visible pigmentation.
Hijacking Sex Determination: The researchers used CRISPR gene editing to disrupt the mosquito’s yellow pigmentation gene, creating albino-like mosquitoes. They then restored normal dark pigmentation only in males by combining the yellow gene with nix, a “master switch” that converts females into fertile males. The result is a stable strain in which all males are dark and all females remain yellow, enabling fast and accurate sex separation without the need of complex equipment.
This produces an engineered sex-linked trait in mosquitoes that uses the insect's own genes," said Prof. Papathanos. “By understanding and controlling the sex determination pathway, we were able to create a system were males and females are visually different at the genetic level.”
Built-in Safety Mechanism: Beyond visual sorting, the study revealed additional advantages for field use. The researchers discovered that the yellow females lay eggs that are highly sensitive to desiccation (drying out). Unlike wild mosquito eggs, which can survive dry conditions for months, the eggs of this engineered strain die quickly if they dry out.
"This acts as a built-in genetic containment mechanism," says Doron Zaada, the study’s lead author. "Even if some females are accidentally released, their eggs won't survive in the wild, preventing any engineered strain containing our system from establishing itself in the environment."
The researchers also showed that genetically converted males closely resemble natural males in gene expression and reproductive behavior, suggesting that the technique does not compromise male fitness, an important requirement for control programs such as the Sterile Insect Technique.
"Our approach provides a versatile platform for mosquito sex separation," adds Prof. Papathanos. "By combining cutting-edge gene editing with classical genetics, we have created a scalable, safe, and efficient system. The next step is now to built on this platform and to make females different in more ways, for example in their ability to survive high temperatures or specific additives used in mosquito mass-rearing biofactories. This could finally overcome one of the biggest hurdles in genetic mosquito control."
Published in Nature Communications, the study establishes a foundation for developing next-generation mosquito control tools that are more precise, efficient, and adaptable to real-world public health needs.
Differences appear early in life: The unique yellow coloration allows researchers to readily identify the modified mosquitoes during early developmental stages, including the larval phase shown here.
Credit
Doron Zaada
Pupal Stage. The mosquito pupal stage is typically when sexual dimorphism first becomes visible. However, the 'yellow' strain (left) can be immediately distinguished from its naturally dark counterpart (right) regardless of sex, simplifying identification.
A world-first single-dose vaccine against the dengue virus, manufactured and approved for use in Brazil, will especially benefit populations in hard-to-reach regions of the country such as the Amazon, say disease specialists.
The Butantan-DV vaccine, which is the first to use a single dose against the four serotypes, or strains, of dengue, was approved by Brazil’s national drug regulator last week (26 November) for use in people aged 12 to 59.
It is an important development for Brazil following its largest ever dengue epidemic, with 6.4 million cases and 5,972 deaths reported in 2024, according to the Ministry of Health.
In late-stage human trials, the vaccine showed 74.7 per cent overall efficacy and 91.6 per cent efficacy against more severe forms of the disease, according to the Butantan Institute, the public research centre that developed the vaccine.
The vaccine will be incorporated into Brazil’s national immunisation programme in early 2026, with more than 1 million doses ready to be distributed, the Institute said.
Butantan’s director, Esper Kallas called it a “powerful weapon” against the mosquito-borne disease that has plagued Brazil for decades.
Disease specialists say the one-dose vaccine will make it easier for remote communities to access. The only globally available vaccine, TAK-003 or Qdenga, requires two doses administered three months apart.
Indigenous communities will no longer have to make repeated trips to health clinics and can be fully vaccinated in one community health visit, says epidemiologist Jesem Orellana, from Brazil’s Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), a leading public health research institution.
Orellana, who was not involved in developing the new vaccine, told SciDev.Net: “It is much more difficult and expensive to apply a two-dose vaccine in remote and hard-to-reach regions, such as the Amazon, crossed by rivers and with still very precarious land connections.” 60 million doses
Butantan has partnered with Chinese company WuXi Vaccines to manufacture 60 million doses over the next two years. Around half of that is expected to be delivered before the end of 2026.
The vaccination strategy and priority groups will be defined in the coming weeks by specialists from the National Immunization Program.
The new vaccine is not yet authorised for pregnant women, immunocompromised people, or older adults. Evidence of its efficacy in these populations is being analysed by Brazil’s health regulatory agency, Anvisa.
Renato Kfouri, vice president of the Brazilian Society of Immunizations, told SciDev.Net: “With this, Brazil becomes a strategic player in the international production of vaccines, and will soon be able to supply other Latin American countries also affected by the disease, such as Argentina, Peru and Colombia.”
Globally, more than 14 million dengue cases were reported in 2024, according to the World Health Organization. Of these, 12.6 million were in Latin America where more than 8,000 people died.
The Butantan Institute confirmed to SciDev.Net that it will be able to offer the new vaccine to other countries in the region, without elaborating on the timescale. Buy vitamins and supplements
Fernanda Boulos, Butantan’s chief scientific officer, said the priority was supplying Brazil’s public health system, through the Ministry of Health. Decade of research
Butantan-DV is a live, attenuated vaccine which uses weakened viruses to generate immunity without causing the disease. It was evaluated for nearly a decade in trials involving 16,000 volunteers from across Brazil.
The most recent data indicates that the vaccine achieved 100 per cent efficacy against hospitalisations.
A spokesperson for Butantan said these results would be published soon in the journal Nature Medicine. Extended protection
Composed of the four serotypes of the dengue virus, Butantan-DV can be given to both people who have already had the infection and those who have never been exposed to it.
“The first vaccine could only be administered to people who had already had dengue, which prevented its integration into the public health system,” Nogueira told SciDev.Net.
Takeda’s vaccine is suitable for people who have already had dengue, but its two-dose format makes adherence more difficult, says Nogueira.
“Many people who receive the first dose don’t return for the second and end up only partially protected,” he explained.
“Both doses are essential to ensure complete protection against the pathogen.” Mosquito control
Disease specialists warn, however, that the vaccine alone will not eradicate the disease and stress the continued need for other control measures.
Climate change and urbanisation have produced increasingly favourable conditions for the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the main disease vector.
“The vaccine is important, but it doesn’t mean we should neglect mosquito control,” said Orellana, citing the risk of other mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and yellow fever.
“Control remains essential, surveillance is fundamental, and it is necessary to invest in measures that reduce the vector’s reproductive capacity,” he added.
Published in Nature Scientific Reports the research determined insight from 3,752 health professionals and researchers across 151 countries and is one of the largest Global studies of its kind, with 86.9% of participants based in low- and middle-income countries. Participants reported that climate change, poverty, and drug resistance are combining to create an escalating health crisis that could become a ‘creeping catastrophe’ if left unaddressed.
Data gathered in countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America identified that experts throughout the world consider vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue as the most rapidly escalating threats, followed by tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS. The research confirmed they find the three main drivers are:
Climate change, especially rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, emerged across all regions as a primary driver of disease escalation as it expands mosquito and other vector ranges, increases breeding sites, and accelerates human mobility and displacement.
Socioeconomic inequality, affecting living conditions and access to healthcare
Antimicrobial resistance, undermining treatments for a wide range of infections worldwide
“Typically these regions are under-represented and not collectively voiced but these data and insights are grounded in lived experience and global diversity. Our research clearly demonstrates that the next major health emergency may not be a sudden new outbreak, but the steady worsening of the quiet diseases that shorten lives every day.”
The study’s authors contend that this risk will not present as a dramatic outbreak, but as a slow-unfolding humanitarian disaster where endemic diseases spread into new geographies - impacting health systems and economies.
The authors argue that tackling these cross-cutting drivers of disease could strengthen preparedness for both existing and future threats. They call for sustained investment in diagnostics, surveillance, and equitable research partnerships that empower local leadership and build lasting research capacity.
Dr. Aliya Naheed. Country Director NIHR GHR Centre for NCDs and Environmental Change, Bangladesh said: “This phenomenal study echoes the core disparity in the top health priorities between the low to middle income countries (LMICS) and the high-income countries, recognizing the role of climate change on future health emergencies. The message of the future threat of the known disease burdens emphasizes the need of equitable global investment in the prevention and control of common infectious diseases in LMICs.”
The project was commissioned by Wellcome to inform its global infectious disease strategy and ensure research priorities reflect the realities faced by those working in health systems around the world.
Josie Golding, Head of Epidemics and Epidemiology, Infectious Disease, at Wellcome, said: “Climate change is driving the spread of infectious diseases, and it’s hitting hardest in communities least able to adapt. Rising temperatures, floods, and droughts create ideal conditions for mosquitoes, ticks, and harmful bacteria to thrive, while extreme weather adds strain to already fragile health systems.
"We need urgent global climate action, paired with investment in innovative solutions to prevent and treat infectious diseases. Acting on both fronts is essential - without it, diseases like malaria, dengue, and chikungunya will continue to surge, deepening inequalities and putting millions of lives at risk.
"We know that climate and health are inseparable, and by tackling common drivers of disease - from climate change to antimicrobial resistance - we can strengthen health systems to cope with current and emerging issues.”
The study, Global perspectives on infectious diseases at risk of escalation and their drivers, is published in Nature Scientific Reports (DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-22573-3).
Notes to editors
For more information: Lucy Pritchard Head of Communications, Nuffield Department of Medicine
University of Oxford Press Office Email: press.office@admin.ox.ac.uk Tel: +44 (0)1865 270010 www.ox.ac.uk/news
Supportive quotes for media use: Dr Julio Canario, Director, Fundación Etikos, Dominican Republic. “This highly rigorous and participatory study is a clear and unified call to action for the infectious disease community and policymakers. It confirms that the greatest threat is a 'progressive catastrophe' driven by the escalation of endemic diseases, rather than a sudden pandemic event. The timing of these findings is crucial, as they directly guide the reorientation of regional research agendas and funding towards transversal intervention strategies, particularly by highlighting the role of climate change and socioeconomic factors in VBDs, HIV, and TB.”
Professor Jackeline Alger, Instituto Antonio Vidal, Honduras: “The reported results, product of a methodology that ensures wide diverse geographic and pragmatic representation, provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of the global infectious diseases threats and their related factors, including the ecological impact of climate change. We need to act now with an equity focus facilitating the active participation of those where these threats have a more negative impact.”
About the Global Health Network The Global Health Network is vast and highly connected community of health workers and health research organisations that enables research in every healthcare setting by driving equity in where research happens, who leads and who benefits from the evidence. This works by mobilising knowledge between organisations, across disease areas and different geographies. Embedded within many countries across the world this community runs research system strengthening programmes to integrate research within healthcare practice by facilitating workplace-based learning, local research support activities and professional development for research teams. The Global Health Network is a WHO collaborating centre because of this effort to enable teams everywhere in the world to undertake and lead research studies that address local priority health challenges. Visit: www.theglobalhealthnetwork.org
About the Nuffield Department of Medicine The Nuffield Department of Medicine (NDM) at the University of Oxford is the largest department of medicine in Europe. It is distinguished by its excellence in several clinical disciplines, including tropical and general medicine, infectious disease, cancer, immunology, gastroenterology, respiratory and renal medicine, and vaccinology. Over the last fifty years, it has pioneered the use of genetics, structural and cellular biology to understand susceptibility to human disease, while maintaining a focus on clinical medicine. NDM has over 1,200 staff in the UK and 2,000 overseas, with over 20 major research institutes, centres and units in Oxford as well as Kenya, Thailand, Vietnam and several other countries. For more information, visit https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/
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