Monday, August 16, 2021

EXPLAINER: Why Haiti is prone to devastating earthquakes


BY BEN FINLEY ASSOCIATED PRESS
AUGUST 16, 2021 

The Cayimite Hotel is damaged after an earthquake in Les Cayes, Haiti, Saturday, Aug. 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Delot Jean) DELOT JEAN AP


Earthquakes have been wreaking havoc in Haiti since at least the 18th century, when the city of Port-au-Prince was destroyed twice in 19 years. Saturday’s powerful quake killed hundreds and injured thousands more. Eleven years earlier a temblor killed tens of thousands of people, if not hundreds of thousands.

Haiti sits near the intersection of two tectonic plates that make up the Earth’s crust. Earthquakes can occur when those plates move against each other and create friction. Haiti is also densely populated. Plus, many of its buildings are designed to withstand hurricanes — not earthquakes. Those buildings can survive strong winds but are vulnerable to collapse when the ground shakes.

___


WHAT MAKES HAITI PRONE TO EARTHQUAKES?


The Earth’s crust is made up of tectonic plates that move. And Haiti sits near the intersection of two of them — the North American plate and the Caribbean plate.

Multiple fault lines between those plates cut through or near the island of Hispaniola, which Haiti shares with the Dominican Republic. What's worse, not all of those fault lines behave the same way.


“Hispaniola sits in a place where plates transition from smashing together to sliding past one another,” said Rich Briggs, a research geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Geologic Hazards Science Center.

“It's like a rock stuck in the track of a sliding glass door," he said. "It just does not want to move smoothly because it’s got so many different forces on it.”

___

WHAT CAUSED THE MOST RECENT QUAKE?


Brewery Blocks

Downtown development has been slow to fill during pandemic
READ MORE

Saturday's magnitude 7.2 earthquake likely occurred along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone, which cuts across Haiti's southwestern Tiburon Peninsula, according to the USGS.

It's the same fault zone along which the devastating 2010 earthquake occurred. And it's likely the source of three other big earthquakes in Haiti between 1751 and 1860, two of which destroyed Port-au-Prince.

Earthquakes are the result of the tectonic plates slowly moving against each other and creating friction over time, said Gavin Hayes, senior science adviser for earthquake and geologic hazards at USGS.

“That friction builds up and builds up and eventually the strain that’s stored there overcomes the friction,” Hayes said. “And that’s when the fault moves suddenly. That’s what an earthquake is.”

___



WHY CAN EARTHQUAKES IN HAITI BE SO DEVASTATING?

It's a combination of factors that include a seismically active area, a high population density of 11 million people and buildings that are often designed to withstand hurricanes — not earthquakes.

Typical concrete and cinder block buildings can survive strong winds but are vulnerable to damage or collapse when the ground shakes. Poor building practices can also play a role.

The 2010 quake hit closer to densely populated Port-au-Prince and caused widespread destruction. Haiti’s government put the death toll at more than 300,000, while a report commissioned by the U.S. government placed it between 46,000 and 85,000.

“I think it’s important to recognize that there’s no such thing as a natural disaster,” said Wendy Bohon, a geologist with Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology. “What you have is a natural hazard that overlaps with a vulnerable system.”



___

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

Geologists say they cannot predict the next earthquake.

“But we do know that earthquakes like this can cause similar-sized earthquakes on the next portion of the fault,” said Hayes of USGS. “And it’s quite a significant hazard in places that don’t have the construction practices to withstand the shaking.”

Construction of more earthquake-resistant buildings remains a challenge in Haiti, which is the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere.

Before Saturday's quake, Haiti was still recovering from the 2010 earthquake as well as Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Its president was assassinated last month, sending the country into political chaos.

And while there have been some success stories of Haitians building more earthquake-resistant structures, the country has lacked a centralized effort to do so, said Mark Schuller, a professor of anthropology and nonprofit and NGO studies at Northern Illinois University.

Haiti's government has become increasingly weak, while non-governmental organizations focus on their own compartmentalized projects.

“There is technical knowledge in Haiti. There are trained architects. There are city planners. That’s not the problem,” Schuller said. “The problem is a lack of funding for coordination, and lack of political will from donors (to organizations providing aid).”




Why Earthquakes In Haiti Are So Catastrophic


August 16, 2021
JACLYN DIAZ
NPR

Locals recover their belongings Sunday from their homes destroyed in the earthquake in Camp-Perrin in Les Cayes, Haiti.Joseph Odelyn/AP

It happened again.

Over the weekend, Haiti was hit by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that crumbled homes and buildings and killed more than 1,200 people.

Rescuers are still working to find survivors amid the rubble. The death count is expected to rise.

More than a decade ago, a similar quake left an estimated 220,000 dead, more than 1 million people displaced and roughly 300,000 injured.

These two events are part of Haiti's history of major destructive earthquakes, records of which go back centuries.

Researchers say the country's unique geology make it seismically active — and prone to devastating earthquakes. A combination of factors, however, leaves the country especially susceptible to damage from these events.
Why is Haiti so susceptible to earthquakes?

Haiti sits on a fault line between huge tectonic plates, big pieces of the Earth's crust that slide past each other over time. These two plates are the North American plate and the Caribbean plate.

There are two major faults along Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.



A map of the 2010 earthquake in Haiti shows dotted orange lines indicating fault lines. The nation sits on a fault line between huge tectonic plates of the Earth's crust — the North American plate and the Caribbean plate.Alyson Hurt/NPR

The southern one is known as the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system.
Article continues after sponsor message

It's this fault that the U.S. Geological Survey says caused Saturday's quake and the same one that caused the January 2010 earthquake.

The USGS believes the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone can be blamed on other major earthquakes from 1751 to 1860. The agency said none of these quakes has been officially confirmed in the field as associated with this fault, however.



A history of catastrophic earthquakes in Haiti


One of the earliest major recorded earthquakes in Haiti occurred in the 1700s, according to the USGS. Others followed, with researchers cataloging events that left hundreds dead and destroyed homes and businesses.

Nov. 21, 1751: A major earthquake destroys Port-au-Prince and causes major destruction in nearby towns. Witness accounts of the event from the National Centers for Environmental Information recount the devastation. "Houses and factories were thrown down at St.-Marc, Lkogbne, and Plaine du Cul-de-sac. Crevices formed and abundant springs of nauseous water broke forth," researchers who witnessed the event described it. "Great landslips occurred and the beds of the rivers changed direction."

June 3, 1770: An earthquake hits Port-au-Prince again. Researchers described the event as "one of the strongest shocks recorded on the Island of Haiti." An estimated 200 people in the nation's capital died as a result of the earthquake.

April 8, 1860: This earthquake occurred farther west of the 2010 earthquake, near Anse-à-Veau, and was accompanied by a tsunami. "At Anse-a-Veau, crevasses sliced across the streets and 124 houses were demolished; at Miragoane, the bridge sank; at Petit Goave, all the houses were abandoned ... ," researchers said of the event. "Ships in the harbor of Les Cayes felt the shock, as did ships at sea."

Before the 2010 earthquake, there hadn't been another major quake along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone for about 200 years.


In January 2010, people work to free trapped victims from the rubble of a collapsed building after an earthquake in Haiti's capital of Port-au-Prince.
Gerald Herbert/AP


Building to withstand hurricanes, not earthquakes


The USGS says it recorded 22 magnitude 7 or larger earthquakes in 2010, the same year as the devastating earthquake in Haiti. However, despite an active year, almost all the fatalities were produced by the major temblor that hit on Jan. 12 of that year, the USGS said.

It struck around the densely populated capital of Port-au-Prince, contributing to the high death toll.

But the way structures are built in Haiti is also believed to have contributed to the loss of life and property.

Due to the 1751 and 1770 earthquakes and minor quakes that occurred between them, local authorities started requiring building with wood and forbade building with masonry, according to the USGS.

A woman tries to recover her belongings Sunday amid the rubble of her home destroyed by the quake in Camp-Perrin in Les Cayes.
Joseph Odelyn/AP

In the years since, Haitians have focused on building their homes to withstand the bigger threat in the neighborhood — hurricanes.

Structures made of concrete and cinder block hold up well during storms but are more vulnerable during earthquakes, according to The Associated Press.
More earthquakes may be ahead

In 2012, researchers wrote that the 2010 earthquake "may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence."

"The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes," researchers said.

It's still too early to determine the long-term impact of Saturday's earthquake. What is certain is the unique pressures facing Haitians in the days ahead.

The country still has not fully recovered from the 2010 earthquake and Hurricane Matthew in 2016.


LATIN AMERICA
Ariel Henry Will Become Haiti's Prime Minister, Ending A Power Struggle

Haiti was already suffering from political instability following last month's assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse's death has since left a power vacuum that's been filled by interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry, a 71-year-old neurosurgeon and public official.

The nation is also bracing for another threat as Tropical Depression Grace threatens to bring heavy rains on Monday.

 

GAO report details rejection of HLS protests

by  — 

WASHINGTON — The Government Accountability Office offered more details about its decision to reject protests filed by two companies of NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) award to SpaceX.

The GAO released Aug. 10 a 76-page decision denying protests filed in April by Blue Origin and Dynetics of NASA’s decision to make a single HLS award, valued at $2.9 billion, to SpaceX. The GAO announced its decision July 30 but withheld the formal decision memo until a version suitable for public release, with redactions, was available.

The GAO rejected claims by the protesting companies that NASA erred by making a single award when it discussed its desire to make multiple awards. The “plain terms” of the solicitation, the GAO concluded, “unequivocally put the protesters on notice that NASA could make multiple awards, a single award, or no award at all.”

The GAO decision provides new details about the financial constraints NASA faced when assessing the HLS proposals. NASA received $850 million from Congress in fiscal year 2021 for the HLS program and identified an additional $96 million from other programs that could go to HLS. However, $389 million of that funding was already committed to the “base period” awards NASA made to Blue Origin, Dynetics and SpaceX in 2020, and $202 million reserved for internal and other costs for the program. That left $355 million available for the new HLS awards.

All three companies requested initial milestone payments more than that amount, although the exact numbers are redacted in the public GAO document. NASA requested SpaceX, the lowest bidder, revise its payment structure to address that. The document does not disclose the new value of that initial milestone payment, although government contracting records show NASA paid SpaceX $300 million on July 30, the day the GAO rejected the protests.

Blue Origin and Dynetics, the GAO concluded, “did not submit proposals priced in a manner that NASA could make multiple awards with the available funding for the HLS program.” While the questions about the importance of multiple competitors, the GAO added in its decision, “may merit further public debate, they do not establish that NASA has violated any applicable procurement law or regulation.”

The GAO also rejected claims by Blue Origin and Dynetics that their proposals were unfairly evaluated in comparison with SpaceX’s proposal. These range from Blue Origin’s criticism of how its lander’s communications system was assessed to the mass of Dynetics’s lander that “far exceeds” its allocation.

The GAO dismissed those claims, concluding that “the record adequately supports NASA’s evaluation of the protesters’ proposals and was consistent with applicable procurement law, regulation, and the terms” of the solicitation.

However, the GAO did agree with one claim that the protestors made about how NASA evaluated SpaceX’s proposal. SpaceX’s concept of operations for its Starship lunar lander requires 16 launches: one of the lander itself, 14 “tanker” Starships to fuel it and another whose purpose is redacted. The protestors argued that NASA erred in not requiring a flight readiness review (FRR) for each launch.

The GAO agreed that, under the terms of the solicitation, an FRR is needed before each launch, rather than one for the entire series of launches. NASA requested SpaceX amend its proposal to include two additional FRRs, but the GAO said that still fell short of the requirements in the solicitation.

However, the GAO also concluded that this oversight did not have a material impact on the competition, stating in the document that “the record reflects that NASA’s evaluation was largely reasonable, and the relative competitive standing of the offerors under the non-price factors would not materially change.”

Dynetics did not comment on the GAO report, and in a July 30 statement said that “while disappointed, we respect the GAO’s determination.” Blue Origin, though, offered no concessions even after the release of the report.

“The GAO report confirms NASA’s desire for multiple awards and confirms that there were significant issues with how NASA conducted this procurement process,” the company said in an Aug. 11 statement. “We stand by our assessment that SpaceX received preferential treatment by conducting exclusive negotiations with them.”

The company said it urged NASA to select a second provider, something agency officials said they support but lack the funding to do so currently. “Two providers ensure greater safety and mission success, promote competition, and control costs.”

SpaceX did not comment on the report beyond tweets from company founder and chief executive Elon Musk addressing one aspect of the report regarding the need for 16 launches to support a single Starship lunar lander mission. “16 flights is extremely unlikely,” he said, estimating a “max of 8” flights to fill the tanks given the projected payload capacity of Starship, and possibly as few as four.

Jeff Bezos And Richard Branson Overlooked Spaceflight Safety Concern, Experts Say

BY : CHARLIE COCKSEDGE ON : 14 AUG 2021 
PA

As Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson raced to hurtle themselves to the edge of space, both billionaires decided to do so in fetching blue jumpsuits.

Bezos accompanied his personalised jumpsuit with an oversized cowboy hat, while Branson kept things simple with a pair of sunglasses and an ear-to-ear grin.

However, according to some experts, the billionaires’ sartorial choices on their respective spaceflights overlooked a safety feature that is usually a requirement on any NASA spaceflight
.
PA

While Branson and Bezos both decided to opt for blue jumpsuits, experts in space travel safety noticed the conspicuous lack of pressure suits, which are used to protect astronauts from rapid decompression when outside of Earth’s atmosphere, Bloomberg reports.

NASA and other space agencies around the world made such suits a requirement after experiencing fatal accidents without them, though NASA’s standards don’t apply to those owned by billionaires like Branson and Bezos. Companies and their crews that offer space tourism flights, like Branson’s Virgin Galactic and Bezos’s Blue Origin, have been made exempt from federal safety oversight by Congress.

Tommaso Sgobba, former European Space Agency official and executive director of the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety, said: ‘The reality is when you go to space, you don’t dress with nice stuff, you dress with the right stuff.’
Related video:

Sgobba believes restrictions on government oversight on private enterprises like these need to end. Though the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) thoroughly reviews any launch application, it primarily looks at the reliability of the spacecraft, and Congress has not allowed the agency to set any rules to protect the occupants.

‘It is time, I believe, to update our human spaceflight regulatory framework,’ George Nield, who directed the FAA’s office overseeing commercial launches from 2008 to 2018, said.


Bezos’ Blue Origin takes NASA to
court over SpaceX lunar lander contract


The protest, filed in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims on Monday, is sealed and marks the next step in the company’s attempt to get NASA’s decision overturned.


Jeff Bezos walks across the crew access gantry to enter into
the crew capsule for flight on July 20, 2021.Blue Origin

Aug. 16, 2021, 11:21 AM MDT / Updated Aug. 16, 2021, 11:26 AM MDT / Source: CNBC.com
By Michael Sheetz, CNBC

Jeff Bezos’ space company Blue Origin filed a complaint in federal court against NASA, continuing its protest that the agency wrongly awarded a lucrative contract to Elon Musk’s SpaceX earlier this year.

“This bid protest challenges NASA’s unlawful and improper evaluation of proposals,” Blue Origin’s lawyers wrote in its court filing.

The protest, filed in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims on Monday, is sealed and marks the next step in the company’s attempt to get NASA’s decision overturned. A Blue Origin spokesperson confirmed the lawsuit filing, adding in a statement to CNBC that it is looking “to remedy the flaws in the acquisition process found in NASA’s Human Landing System.”

“We firmly believe that the issues identified in this procurement and its outcomes must be addressed to restore fairness, create competition, and ensure a safe return to the Moon for America,” Blue Origin said.

Blue Origin’s filing in court comes a couple of weeks after the U.S. Government Accountability Office denied the company’s protest, upholding NASA’s decision.

The GAO ruling backed the space agency’s surprise announcement in April that NASA awarded SpaceX with a lunar lander contract worth about $2.9 billion. SpaceX was competing with Blue Origin and Dynetics for what was expected to be two contracts, before NASA only awarded a single contract due to a lower-than-expected allocation for the program from Congress.

Blue Origin has not let up on its fight to win a contract under NASA’s HLS program, one of the final key pieces of the agency’s plan to return U.S. astronauts to the surface of the moon. Before the April contract award, NASA had handed out nearly $1 billion in concept development contracts — with SpaceX receiving $135 million, Dynetics $253 million, and Blue Origin receiving $579 million.

The company’s court filing on Monday comes as Blue Origin has stepped up a public relations offensive against NASA using SpaceX’s next-generation Starship to land astronauts on the moon. In a series of comparative infographics, Blue Origin has emphasized the “unprecedented number of technologies, developments, and operations that have never been done before for Starship to land on the Moon.”

Blue Origin last week released an infographic that added that Starship is “a launch vehicle that has never flown to orbit and is still being designed.”

Musk, in response to Blue Origin’s infographic, gave his view of Bezos’ company and its criticism.

“The sad thing is that even if Santa Claus suddenly made their hardware real for free, the first thing you’d want to do is cancel it,” Musk wrote in a tweet.



Israel implements Judaization project at Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron

Israel has begun implementing a Judaization project at the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron to install an external elevator, open a route for pedestrians and a parking lot, amid Palestinians' protests that are likely to escalate in the coming weeks.


Palestinians wear face masks as they gather to perform the Friday prayers at the Ibrahimi mosque, also known as the Tomb of the Patriarchs, Hebron, West Bank, June 26, 2020. - Hazem Bader/AFP via Getty Images

Ahmad Melhem
@ahmadme44502893

TOPICS COVERED
Israeli-Palestinian conflict
August 16, 2021

RAMALLAH, West Bank — Nearly 20,000 Palestinians from Hebron governorate, in the southern West Bank, performed Friday prayers at the Ibrahimi Mosque (Cave of the Patriarchs) on Aug. 13, to stress the Islamic identity of the site, in the face of the Israeli Judaization efforts made in its outer courtyards.

On Aug. 12, the Directorate of Religious Endowments in Hebron decided to close all the mosques in the city calling on worshippers to pray at the Ibrahimi Mosque, which is believed to have been constructed on the tomb of the Prophet Ibrahim (Abraham), in a bid to defend it and protect it from Israeli plans. Thousands of Palestinians responded to the call, amid tight Israeli security measures.

The Israeli forces, which were deployed in the vicinity of the site and the old city, prevented hundreds of young men from entering the site, and fired tear gas at worshippers, after driving them out of its courtyards.

On Aug. 10, the Israeli authorities began excavation works in the southern outer courtyards of the site under strict security measures, as part of the project that would alter the features of the Ibrahimi Mosque.

This project sparked protests in Hebron. Palestinians rallied Aug. 11 in front of the Ibrahimi Mosque, amid the Israeli forces’ measures to suppress them, including the firing of tear gas. The protests are expected to escalate in the coming months as the project continues to be implemented.

On Aug. 11, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh condemned the Israeli violations at the site, and demanded that international human rights organizations and UNESCO denounce the Israeli violations, as the site is placed on the World Heritage List.

The Israeli project involves the installation of an elevator and a road to facilitate access for settlers. The works are carried out by a team from the Israeli Defense Ministry, under the supervision of the Israeli Civil Administration. The project is expected to be completed in six months.

On May 3, 2020, then-Defense Minister and current Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had approved an expropriation order to seize some areas adjacent to the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron to install the elevator.

Also, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz approved June 10 the implementation of the project.

Gantz’s decision came after the Israeli Supreme Court dismissed April 21 a petition by the Hebron municipality to freeze the decision to license and build an elevator inside the Ibrahimi Mosque. The court gave the green light to the Israeli Civil Administration's Higher Planning Council to move forward with the project, and the license was approved by the Israeli Central Court.

Palestinians believe this project is a new Israeli attempt to turn the Ibrahimi Mosque into a synagogue, as it paves the way for a greater number of settlers to enter the site, the seizure of additional parts in its vicinity and greater Israeli control over it, which would alter its characteristics and obliterate its identity.

Director of the Ibrahimi Mosque Sheikh Hafthi Abu Sneineh told Al-Monitor that Friday prayers were held at the Ibrahimi Mosque to express rejection of its Judaization and strengthen the presence of Palestinians there, so as to shed light on its Islamic and Arab identity.

He said that the project is additional proof of the Israeli intention to continue to Judaize the remaining parts of the site, and to fully tighten control over it and its surroundings. He explained that the project poses a challenge to the international community, especially UNESCO, as the city of Hebron and the Ibrahimi Mosque were added to the World Heritage List in 2007.

He noted that the project will consume the surrounding lands that belong to the Islamic religious endowments, and will alter the site’s historical image and forge its identity.

Israel has exploited the 1994 massacre, during which settler Baruch Goldstein killed 29 Palestinians, to completely divide the ancient sanctuary and give exclusive access to 66% of its area to Israeli settlers and Jewish visitors. Israel also erected military barriers at the entrances to the sanctuary and took control of all of its gates and external courtyards.

The decision to go ahead with the project appears to violate the Hebron Protocol, signed by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Israel in 1997, which conferred the planning authority in the city to the PA. The protocol provides for the division of Hebron into two parts: Area H1, controlled by the PA, and Area H2 where the Ibrahimi Mosque is located and that is subject to Israeli security control. The protocol provided that the authority to grant building permits across Hebron in the two areas is the prerogative of the Hebron municipality.

The director-general of the Hebron Endowments, Jamal Abu Aram, told Al-Monitor that the Israeli project seeks to obliterate the features and Judaize the Ibrahimi Mosque by facilitating access for setters while tightening access measures for Palestinians to the site and the old city.

He said that the project stretches from the eastern courtyard that is under Israeli control, and that the bulldozing has been ongoing and has affected 360 square meters (3,875 square feet) so far. He added that additional parts of the outer courtyards will be exploited.

Abu Aram stressed that the Friday prayers that w held at the Ibrahimi Mosque is tantamount to a call for a general mobilization for the sake of the mosque and an important message recalling the popular movement that took place in Jerusalem against installing the electronic gates at the entrances to Al-Aqsa Mosque, which proved that a strong popular uprising is effective in deterring the occupation and preventing its project.

He pointed at the Israeli judiciary’s complicity with the authorities’ plans. “We, as local authorities, [the Islamic Endowments and the Hebron municipality] resorted to the Israeli courts, which procrastinated their decisions. They froze the project for some time, before the Israeli Supreme Court gave its final approval months ago.”

The situation in Hebron is expected to escalate in the coming days and weeks amid a continuation of the Israeli project. Popular protests and calls to go to the Ibrahimi Mosque are anticipated. Abu Sneineh said, “Activities in protest against the occupation’s schemes will continue and we will not allow any violation at the site. We must work to thwart the scheme.”

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/08/israel-implements-judaization-project-ibrahimi-mosque-hebron#ixzz73jze3KwU


How will Biden’s Afghanistan retreat impact Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

August 16, 2021

President Joe Biden sought to assure the American people on Monday that he made the right decision to withdraw from war-torn Afghanistan after 20 years, despite the rapid Taliban takeover. But as the worrisome images of the way Americans were evacuated from Kabul circulated on social media, criticism of the administration’s approach and execution intensified. Some, including Democrats, blasted Biden’s handling of the situation, which is being described as a crucial test of his tenure as Commander-in-chief.

Others raised questions about the administration’s credibility as a reliable partner in the region, about the willingness to maintain its commitment to long-standing allies, and the message this sends to other global terror groups.

Allies “want to know if the United States is going to continue to be reliable,” said Dov Zakheim, a former Pentagon official in the Ronald Regan and George W. Bush administrations. The Biden administration will seek to demonstrate that Afghanistan was not a national security priority for the U.S. and that alliances with Europe, Asia, Israel and other countries in the Middle East are an interest. “Whether people will be reassured is another matter,” said Zakheim, who wrote a book about the Bush administration mismanaging the reconstruction of Afghanistan.

The concerns have been building up in recent years about what role the U.S. wants to play in the Middle East and whether any decisions made would be reversed by the next administration.

“Nobody is going to challenge Biden’s sincerity,” Zakheim explained. “But for our friends and allies, they’ve been watching Donald Trump’s behavior, and they’re wondering whether there’s something about the United States that has changed, not about individual presidents.”
The message it sends on Iran

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, maintained that while Afghanistan has tarnished America’s image, it wouldn’t necessarily have an impact on the nuclear talks with Iran in the coming weeks.

“The problems of the JCPOA — the politics, the security implications, and the time factor — have all been baked into the cake long before these events of the past week,” Miller said referring to the Iran nuclear deal brokered by President Obama in 2015. “You’d have to persuade me that somehow what’s happened in Afghanistan has injected some new factor that has either strengthened Iran’s hand in negotiations because they perceive America as weak or, alternatively, has weakened Biden in some fashion that he can’t appear to be making concessions to President Ebrahim Raisi.”

A former Trump administration official, however, suggested Biden’s approach may remove a U.S. military option off the table. “I think one key effect will be in strengthening the Israeli conclusion that they may have to deal with Iran themselves,” said Elliott Abrams, a veteran Republican foreign policy official who previously served as Trump’s special envoy on Iran.

Moshe Ya’alon, former Israeli defense minister, echoed that sentiment, suggesting that the disengagement will implicate the United States’ position in the Middle East at the expense of Israel’s security. Quoting passages from the Talmud, Ya’alon tweeted, “Israel should strive for ‘the righteous — their work will be done through others,’ but must prepare for ‘If I am not for myself, then who will be for me?’”

How it will impact the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

The one area where the Afghanistan withdrawal might have a profound impact on is with regards to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, an issue the Biden administration is committed to resolving by diplomatic means.

“It seems certain that, compounded by a long-held perception that the U.S. is in retreat from the region, and in the face of active security concerns about Hamas, Hezbollah, and the influence and impact of actors further afield, Israel and some of its regional allies will have little appetite for robust diplomatic pursuits that could point the way toward security or territorial compromise,” said Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, director of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict program at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

Zakheim, who was a Never-Trumper and supported Biden in 2020, said that Israel already started hedging during the Trump presidency because of his determination to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria. “This will simply reinforce the concerns, at least in some parts of the Israeli establishment, that at the end of the day, there are limits to how much support the United States will give.”


Author

Jacob Kornbluh  is the Forward’s senior political reporter. Follow him on Twitter @jacobkornbluh or email kornbluh@forward.com


Concern for Afghanistan's last Jew

Zabulon Simantov had pledged to leave Afghanistan after the High Holidays. 

His fate is unknown after Taliban seize Kabul.

Gary Willig , Aug 16 , 2021

Zabulon Simantov, the last Jew in Afghanistan
Reuters

As the Taliban takes over the country, the fate of Afghanistan's last remaining Jew is unknown.

Zabulon Simantov, 62, was living in the capital of Kabul and serving of the caretaker of the city's synagogue before Kabul fell to Taliban forces yesterday.

Simantov had announced in March of this year that he would leave the country for good following the Jewish High Holidays in September, citing fears of a possible Taliban takeover following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

“If the Taliban return, they are going to push us out with a slap in the face,” he told Radio Free Europe.

Yesterday, Simantov's fears came true, as Taliban forces marched into the capital and seized control from President Ashraf Ghani, who fled the country. The takeover comes three weeks before the start of the High Holidays and nearly two months before Simantov said he would the country himself.

He was to move to Israel to be with his wife and two daughters, who have lived in Israel themselves since 1998.

Simantov's current whereabouts are unknown, with concern for his fate being expressed on social media.

"Is anyone else sitting on their couch crying because they're scared for Zebulon Simantov?" asked one Twitter user, with others saying that they are praying for his safety.

With his departure, the synagogue will close and 2,000 years of Jewish history in Afghanistan will come to an end. An estimated 40,000 Jews lived in Afghanistan at the start of the 20th Century.





Inside the warped world of incel extremists

The Conversation
August 16, 2021


In trying to understand what prompted a man in Plymouth, England to commit the worst mass shooting in the UK for over a decade, attention has turned to his apparent links with the incel community – an online subculture of people who describe themselves as “involuntary celibates".

Jake Davison allegedly shot his mother before a shooting spree which ended when he turned the gun on himself. His youngest victim was three years old. In the lead-up to the attacks, he compared himself to incels in YouTube videos and contributed to their forums.

He uploaded videos in which he fixated on his virginity and, in a direct reference to incel ideology, Davison's described himself as “blackpilled". This means that he believed himself too old, at 22, to find love.

Incels refuse to accept responsibility for their circumstances, instead believing their inability to attract women makes them victims of oppression. Like all groups under the umbrella of online misogyny known as the “manosphere", they subscribe to the “red pill" conspiracy theory. They believe men are the true victims of gendered oppression, that male power has been usurped, and that feminism is a front to disguise men's subjugation.

Incels essentialise this conspiracy in the idea of the “black pill". To swallow the black pill is to accept that this oppression is insurmountable. It invokes a certain hopelessness. Incels believe there is nothing they can ever do to improve their lives.

Incels believe in a genetically essentialist social hierarchy. At the apex are “chads" – hyper-athletic attractive males who women desire instinctively. Beneath them are descending classes of “betas". At the lowermost point are incels, whose innate characteristics make them unable to attract women. Height-cels say they are too short; skull and frame-cels blame their skeletal structure; wrist-cels believe their wrists are too thin; and there are many more delineations. Incels cannot accept responsibility for their lot in life, instead spinning themselves as victims of their own biology and societal oppression.
Targeting women

Incels blame women for this hierarchy and their low place within it. The culture portrays women as irrational and emotional creatures who are blindly pursuing the biological imperatives to seek sexual satisfaction and material security through marriage.

Incels believe women select different men for these functions, marrying an inferior “beta" for financial gain whilst cheating with “chads" for sexual gratification. To incels, women pursue their interests sociopathically and will not hesitate to harm men. A society dominated by women does the same and incels see their oppression as a natural consequence of women's malicious and inhuman nature.

Nowhere is this expressed more bizarrely than the widely held incel belief in the “dogpill". This is the view that women's drive for sexual satisfaction is such that they will routinely have sex with large dogs. Absurdity is the point here. Women are portrayed as so depraved that they are undeserving of rights and bodily autonomy.

Incels call for women to be stripped of their rights and be forced to serve as state-mandated girlfriends or held in concentration camps. Incels see themselves as the sexless victims of women's nature, and call for them to be contained or controlled accordingly.

The “black pill" refers to the oppression of incels at the hands of biologically malevolent women. In various online cultures, to take the black pill is to give up hope. And in incel culture specifically, it is to give up hope of ever having sex or a genuine romantic connection. Because they believe attractiveness is genetically determined, there is no hope for incels to rise in the hierarchy. They will be forever denied sex and happiness, and are doomed to be women's victims. Nihilistic despair and dogmatic hopelessness permeates incel communities and it is from this that violence flows.

Death and violence


Given that the alternative is to languish in unceasing oppression, incel ideology legitimises violence against practically any target. Incel forums simultaneously glorify suicide whilst justifying extreme violence against women as a noble reaction to female domination. Violence is an ideological response; a means to punish women for their perceived crimes and reclaim what has been usurped. Incel ideology is necessarily violent because there is no hope, only revenge.

For some time, the wider world has instinctively dismissed what is, admittedly, a childish ideology based on crude stereotypes and nonsensical concepts. Sadly this is no longer an option. Plymouth is not the first shooting linked to incels. Californian Elliot Rodger, a self-described “kissless virgin," killed six in 2014 as “revenge" against those who denied him sex. Incel communities venerate Rodger as a saint to this day.

In Toronto, Canada, Alek Minassian was convicted of murdering ten people with a van in 2018. He hailed Rodger online minutes prior to the attack. Recent attacks in Canada, Arizona and Germany have also been linked to incels, while a planned attack in Ohio was discovered only days before Plymouth. There are many more examples, and some are calling for the Plymouth shooting to be classified as an act of terror.


Although not obviously political, incel ideology revolves around imagined subjugation, and violence is intended to have a far-reaching social impact. Rodger hoped to “deliver a devastating blow" that would shake women to “the core of their wicked hearts". Minassian fantasised of an “incel rebellion" that would overthrow the corrupt social order and return women to their proper place.

Few incels believe this is actually feasible, but allegiance to the principle motivates violence intended to strike at the social order and harm women as a distinct class. This is why the extreme violence of the incel community should be considered terrorism.

Incel terrorism has spiked over the last decade and there is every indication this community is growing. If this most recent attack was motivated by incel ideology, it was neither the first nor likely to be the last. For all their warped concepts and ideological incoherence, incels are becoming a threat we must take seriously.


By Charlie Tye, PHD Candidate, York Law School, University of York

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

TAI CHI

Regular exercise, even in polluted areas, can lower risk of death


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL

Regular exercise, even performed in areas with air pollution, can reduce the risk of death from natural causes, according to new research in CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journalhttps://www.cmaj.ca/lookup/doi/10.1503/cmaj.202729.
 

“Habitual exercise reduces the risk of death regardless of exposure to air pollution, and air pollution generally increases the risk of death regardless of habitual exercise. Thus, habitual exercise should be promoted as a health improvement strategy, even for people residing in relatively polluted areas,” writes Dr. Xiang Qian Lao, Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China, with coauthors.

They conducted a large study, over 15 years from 2001 to 2016, with 384 130 adults in Taiwan, seeking to understand the effects of regular exercise and long-term exposure to fine particle matter on the risk of death from natural causes. The researchers found that a higher level of regular exercise compared with inactivity was beneficial, even in polluted areas, although less exposure to pollution was better.

“We found that a high level of habitual exercise and a low level of exposure to air pollution was associated with lower risk of death from natural causes, whereas a low level of habitual exercise and a high level of exposure was associated with higher risk of death,” write the authors.

This study adds to several other smaller studies conducted in the United States, Denmark and Hong Kong that found that regular exercise, even in polluted areas, is beneficial.

The authors say that “further studies in areas with more severe air pollution are required to examine the applicability of our findings. Our study reinforces the importance of air pollution mitigation, such as to reduce the harmful effects of air pollution and maximize the beneficial effects of regular exercise.“

In a related commentary https://www.cmaj.ca/lookup/doi/10.1503/cmaj.211282, authors from the Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia, argue that physical inactivity and air pollution should be considered as “syndemics” as together they influence behaviour and health outcomes. Recommendations for safe exercise in polluted areas, such as indoor exercise, and avoiding walking and biking on congested roads, can contribute to inequalities as people of lower socioeconomic status often lack these options.

“[R]isk reduction approaches that do not address the root causes of noncommunicable diseases could exacerbate health inequalities,” write Drs. Ding and Elbarbary. “People should not be forced to choose between physical activity and air pollution.”

“Both physical inactivity and air pollution have detrimental effects on health. Staying active should not be at the cost of compromised health from air pollution. Addressing both major public health issues through synergistic, upstream, system-level approaches would lead to long-term health benefits for humans and the planet,” write the commentary authors.

Disclaimer: AAAS and E

 

The good herb: buckwheat liquor helps cells clean house


Researchers from Osaka University find that quercetin, a component of tartary buckwheat extract, promotes the degradation of harmful protein aggregates in cells

Peer-Reviewed Publication

OSAKA UNIVERSITY

Fig.1 

IMAGE: QUERCETIN IN TARTARY BUCKWHEAT INDUCES AUTOPHAGY AGAINST PROTEIN AGGREGATIONS. view more 

CREDIT: TAKESHI NODA

Osaka, Japan - Seeds like quinoa, amaranth, and buckwheat that have been used for centuries in traditional cuisine are having a trendy moment in culinary circles as alternatives to wheat and other grains. Now, researchers from Japan have found that a traditional liquor made from buckwheat could even be used medicinally.

In a study published last month in Antioxidants, researchers from Osaka University revealed that an ingredient in Chinese buckwheat liquor, which contains various herbal medicine extracts, can induce autophagy, a process that cells use to clean up proteins that are damaged or no longer needed.

Autophagy plays an important role in diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s disease, so finding a way to encourage this process is a topic of considerable interest. Herbal substances are an intriguing potential source of compounds that could be used in this type of treatment.

“We already knew that tartary buckwheat liquor, which is used in traditional Chinese medicine, can decrease antioxidants in mice, and that it has some antibacterial effects,” explains lead author of the study Sumiko Ikari. “What we wanted to find out in this study is whether it also affects autophagy.”

To explore this possibility, the researchers treated epithelial (skin) cells and liver cells with tartary buckwheat extract and looked at how different fluorescent markers of autophagy responded.

“The results clearly showed that tartary buckwheat induces autophagy in epithelial cells,” states Takeshi Noda, senior author. “We found that treating cells with the extract stimulated the formation of autophagasomes, specialized cellular structures that carry out autophagy, and altered the location of proteins involved in regulating autophagy.”

When the researchers looked more closely at specific components of tartary buckwheat extract, they found that one component, quercetin, had the same effects as the extract. What’s more, both tartary buckwheat extract and quercetin prompted liver cells to clean up protein aggregates through a process known as aggrephagy.

“Our findings suggest that tartary buckwheat extract and quercetin induce not only autophagy, but also aggrephagy,” says Ikari.

Given that protein aggregates in liver cells are closely linked to alcoholic liver disease, these findings suggest that quercetin could be a useful treatment for patients with this condition. It may also hold promise for treatment of other diseases associated with protein aggregation, such as Alzheimer’s.

###

The article, “Quercetin in tartary buckwheat induces autophagy against protein aggregations,” was published in Antioxidants at DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/antiox10081217

 

About Osaka University

Osaka University was founded in 1931 as one of the seven imperial universities of Japan and is now one of Japan's leading comprehensive universities with a broad disciplinary spectrum. This strength is coupled with a singular drive for innovation that extends throughout the scientific process, from fundamental research to the creation of applied technology with positive economic impacts. Its commitment to innovation has been recognized in Japan and around the world, being named Japan's most innovative university in 2015 (Reuters 2015 Top 100) and one of the most innovative institutions in the world in 2017 (Innovative Universities and the Nature Index Innovation 2017). Now, Osaka University is leveraging its role as a Designated National University Corporation selected by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to contribute to innovation for human welfare, sustainable development of society, and social transformation.

Website: https://resou.osaka-u.ac.jp/en

 

Researcher shows how Russian influence can occur in alternative US media


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT SAN ANTONIO

(San Antonio, August 16 , 2021) -- A new study by Douglas Wilbur, a visiting scholar in the UTSA Department of Communication, examines the claims made by the fact-checking website Prop or Not that Russian propaganda targets the American public. He found evidence that popular sites such as Zero Hedge, a Wall Street focused site, echoes Russian propaganda in line with the claims leveraged by Prop of Not. Wilbur analyzed over 600 articles and found a strong, positive correlation between Sputnik, Russia’s state-owned media, and popular alternative media sites that are thought to provide favorable coverage in the U.S. of Russia and its allies. 

“Covert manipulation of the U.S. news agenda presents a threat to U.S. national security,” said Wilbur.

His research reveals the need for U.S. media to have a counter-attack against the propaganda weapons that Russia creates.

The study, “Propaganda or Not: Examining the Claims of Extensive Russian Information Operations within the United States,” is a content analysis of articles published in four websites labelled by Prop or Not as working on behalf of the Russian government. Although Prop or Not was criticized by major U.S. mainstream media for its methodology in labeling 200 sites as vehicles of propaganda, Wilbur’s research shows that there is strong credibility for the claims made by Prop or Not of Russian interference.

“Prop or Not made an allegation in 2017 that Russia was manipulating U.S. public opinion through online propaganda. However, they failed to provide compelling evidence for this. I have now validated this claim,” said Wilbur.

Wilbur researched articles published on several websites: Zero Hedge, New Cold War, Global Research, and the Daily Sheeple. The outlets were chosen using a random number approach. Published articles on those sites between January 2019 and July 2020 were then selected for examination if they contained the following key terms: Russia, Syria, Ukraine, Iran, Venezuela, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). These terms were chosen because they highlight important foreign policy issues for the Russian government. Once the articles were selected, their tonality was rated on a positive or negative scale according to how the news stories described Russia and its allies versus the U.S. and its partners. 

“Most of the current research on how agendas are set is focused on more traditional news media, leaving a research gap of how alternative media is influenced in the agenda building process,” added Wilbur.

Wilbur specifically looked at intermedia agenda setting, a method in which one news media outlet directly influences the coverage of others. This practice occurs in two ways, the first is to tell the audience about what or who to think about while the second strategy tells an audience how to think about an issue, either in a positive or negative manner.

“Researchers have already shown how The New York Times exerts tremendous influence upon the agenda and content of both other newspapers and television news,” said Wilbur. “Even non-mainstream online news websites, like Zero Hedge, have been shown to influence the agenda of traditional mainstream news outlets.”

The research shows that statistically there is a strong positive correlation between Sputnik and the four websites chosen from the Prop or Not list. Articles on all five of the websites examined describe Russia and its allies very positively.

According to Wilbur, all of the websites assumed that Russia was an honest broker, always acting in a prudent and rational manner.

The New Cold War was especially hostile toward the United States and its allies. For instance, one article celebrated Venezuelan resistance to U.S. imperialism, labeling the U.S. as the real culprit in the suffering of the Venezuelan people.

Sputnik was generally critical of the United States, but its criticisms were often subtle in order to soften the blow upon an American audience.

Zero Hedge was generally critical of the U.S., but the focus was more on the allies of the U.S., especially NATO, and it often appeared to be supporting the same criticisms offered by Sputnik. A number of articles celebrated President Trump’s rift with his NATO allies, Germany in particular.

According to Wilbur, Zero Hedge is a very influential blog and its articles are shared and reposted on numerous websites. With this comes the potential for the Russian Federation to use propaganda to influence U.S. foreign and domestic policy. 

“The Russian Federation has the same right to engage in public diplomacy within the U.S. as the U.S. has to engage in public diplomacy within Russia,” he said. “However, the sources of the information, such as Sputnik, should be made clear to the audience so that they can weigh the evidence carefully and discern any bias.”

Prior to the 2020 election U.S. agencies were planning a major effort to thwart Russian interference geared toward hackers disrupting voting systems.

UTSA’s research shows that news and government groups need to acknowledge propaganda and its negative impact on U.S. media as an effective weapon used by foreign actors that merits more social and scientific attention.  U.S. media vigilance on verifying sources can help diminish the misinformation against communication warfare. 

“Covert manipulation of American news outlets is a threat to us all,” added Wilbur.

###

Disclaimer: AAAS and Eure