Friday, February 21, 2025

Trump and Musk Are Returning Us to the Age of the Robber Barons

For generations, the ultra-rich have been pushing to overthrow the Progressive Era’s and the New Deal’s utilitarian reforms. They have now found their moment.



Elon Musk speaks with then-U.S. President-elect Donald Trump as they watch the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket on November 19, 2024 in Brownsville, Texas.
(Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images)


Peter F. Crowley
Feb 20, 2025
Common Dreams

U.S. President Donald TrumpElon Musk, and their ilk are returning the U.S. to the Gilded Age of robber barons, replete with railroad monopolies and no union protections. They are bringing us back to a time before the Progressive movement had instituted the first real wave of social reforms, which were later widely expanded by New Deal programs. These initial reforms offered workers’ compensation, free school meals for poor children, regulated working hours, and put antitrust laws on the books. They protected the everyday person, white- and blue-collar alike, and were a setback for the ultra-rich. For generations afterward, the ultra-rich have been pushing to overthrow the Progressive Era’s and the New Deal’s utilitarian reforms.

It started with deregulation in the 1970s and was then magnified during Ronald Reagan’s neoliberal presidency. The talking points behind deregulation duped people through bastardizing the concept of “freedom.” The U.S. is a free country, the argument goes, so there shouldn’t be regulation. Yet deregulation, in this sense, is focused on giving businesses and corporations free rein, screwing the rest.

Inevitably, the neoliberals’ free trade policies, the gutting of unions, the reducing of social programs, and the lowering of taxes for the very wealthy led to wide-scale disillusionment. It birthed the Occupy Wall Street and Tea Party movements.

That brings us to today, where there is one option: resistance everywhere.

The Tea Partiers, mostly unwittingly, pushed for the policies of the late 19th-century robber barons, free of any regulation on business and extremely low (if any) taxes, as if these policies would help the average person. The Occupy movement failed in that, while offering an accurate critique of vast wealth inequality, it did not propose any concrete goals. There was the fear that its message would be branded, hijacked, or warped by the mainstream media. Fair point, I suppose. But a protest movement without policy objectives is like a tree falling in an empty forest. Luckily, the forest was not empty.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) had been voicing the same message for decades. He rose to national prominence shortly after the movement’s demise, and his popularity was, in part, due to the Occupy movement raising the issue of wealth inequality to public consciousness. Unlike Occupy, Bernie had specific utilitarian policy goals.

On the other side, Trump voiced the radical Tea Partiers’ message of the robber barons, with more overt xenophobia and racism.

In 2016, both establishment parties tried to crush their mass movement candidates. The Democratic Party succeeded and had Hillary Clinton run as its presidential candidate. On the other hand, the GOP failed to stop Trump and held their nose, presuming Hillary Clinton would trounce him in the general.

When Trump won, most were surprised. Trump himself was unprepared, and the majority of institutions were unprepared to back him. His policy efforts, such as the Muslim ban and immigrant parent-child separation, were short-lived due to popular and legal pushback and sloppy execution.

During his first term, Trump’s core supporters remained steadfast behind him, but most mainstream institutions did not overtly support or cave to him.

For an unprepared presidency, dawdling along much like a toddler with a flippant mouth, the Covid-19 pandemic was icing on the cake for executive leadership failure. Because of Trump’s anti-vax rhetoric, inept health policies, and spewing of misinformation, the deaths of nearly half-a-million Americans can be attributed to him.

Unsurprisingly, Trump was booted out of office in 2020 and Joe Biden stepped in. Once again, the Democrat establishment coalesced against Bernie’s candidacy.

During Biden’s first three years in office, he was a good president, passing the most important climate change legislation in U.S. history, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the bipartisan infrastructure bill. He supported unionization efforts and tried to eliminate student loan debts. He restored a sense of decency and aid for UNWRA.

As the 2024 election came closer, the Gaza genocide commenced, which Biden wholeheartedly backed. In Biden’s last year in office, when Trump became the clear GOP presidential candidate, he tried to outflank the GOP on the right on immigration, restricting asylum seeker border crossings and attempting to push an anti-immigrant bill that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) crafted. (Of course, Trump killed it to prevent Biden from getting “credit.”)

Throughout the Biden years, inflation increased dramatically, similarly to most of the world. Yet Biden could never adequately explain this phenomenon to the American people and was horrible at communicating his domestic accomplishments.

He and his staff ignored his mental decline, leaving former Vice President Kamala Harris little time to campaign. Simultaneous to Biden’s growing unpopularity, far-right institutions began crafting Project 2025 (now being instituted) for a new Trump administration. When the Dems lost this time, the far-right was prepared with institutional backing. For the most part, the establishment (media, corporations, etc.) caved to Trump and his anti-constitutional, authoritarian executive actions.

That brings us to today, where there is one option: resistance everywhere.

Resist on the streets, in Congress (wake up Jeffries and Schumer!), and the courts, to save a very flawed republic before it’s too late. Before fascistic robber barons steal it away, leaving the American people whistling in the desert wind watching a whiny rich snowflake asshole pretend that the United States is a reality TV gameshow.


Peter F. Crowley
As a prolific author from the Boston area, Peter F. Crowley writes in various forms, including short fiction, op-eds, poetry, and academic essays. His writing can be found in Pif Magazine, New Verse News, Counterpunch, Middle East Monitor, Galway Review, Digging the Fat, Adelaide’s Short Story and Poetry Award anthologies (finalist in both), and The Opiate. He is the author of the poetry books Those Who Hold Up the Earth and Empire’s End, and the short fiction collection That Night and Other Stories.
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Trump's Bogus 'Unitary Executive' Theory and the Dismantling of Democracy


We are a nation of laws, and we cannot be ruled by executive fiat.



People say 'No Kings on Presidents Day' in response to what they say are President Trump's and Elon Musk's undemocratic actions on February 17, 2025 in Michigan.
(Photo by: Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)


John Bergmayer
Feb 20, 2025
Common Dreams

President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order that purports to place independent regulatory agencies, such as the Federal Communications Commission and the Federal Trade Commission, under his direct control. Based on the so-called “unitary executive” theory, which claims that any congressional limits on presidential control of every lever of government power are unconstitutional, this action poses a grave threat to the rule of law and the separation of powers—cornerstones of our constitutional system.

This executive order states that the president is charged with ‘faithfully executing the laws.’ This is true. However, the laws of our nation include the existence of independent regulatory agencies, the power of Congress to appropriate funds and direct how they are spent, and protection for certain government employees and officers from arbitrary dismissal.

Executive orders are not the law—they are statements of policy, and memos from the president about how the Executive Branch conducts its internal affairs. By attempting to use executive orders to override actual laws—the kinds that are passed by Congress, not issued on a whim from the Resolute Desk—the Trump administration is effectively asserting that it stands above the law. Indeed, that it is the law. But the role of the executive branch is not to decide what the law is, or to pick and choose which ones it likes, but to carry out and enforce the law, as written. Donald Trump is a high-ranking government employee—not a king. If there are laws he does not like, he can work with Congress to change them.

Donald Trump is a high-ranking government employee—not a king.

A nebulous and broad understanding of the phrase ‘executive power’ cannot prevail over duly enacted statutes passed by Congress and signed into law by presidents of both parties, over the course of decades. The U.S. Constitution did not change its meaning when President Trump took office. That this ‘unitary executive’ theory has made its way from the fringes of academia to the halls of power, and that it has even been accepted by some credulous judges, does not mean that it is right. Many legal observers have pointed out the shoddy scholarship and selective history that underpins it. We are a nation of laws, and we cannot be ruled by executive fiat.

In the order, the Trump administration purports to seize for itself the power Congress delegated to independent regulatory agencies, and as written, declares the White House’s interpretation of the law as ‘authoritative,’ with no mention of the courts. Of course, the president is not, and never has been, the final arbiter of what is lawful. Lawyers working for the government owe their allegiance to the American people, not to President Donald J. Trump. The many government lawyers who have already resigned rather than follow illegal or unethical directives from Trump's appointed political operatives are an inspiration, despite how frightening a hollowed-out Department of Justice might seem.

As for independent regulatory agencies, in addition to being the law of the land, they are often good policy. While I have sometimes disagreed with decisions taken by the FCC or FTC, under both Republican and Democratic control, I understand the importance of expert agencies that are free from day-to-day political interference. The FCC’s control over broadcast licenses, and its unenviable role of coordinating spectrum use between different industries and other government agencies, among other things, means it should be free to try to come to the best answer – not the one with the loudest political support. This applies to enforcement activities as well. Under the Biden administration, for instance, the FTC frequently investigated politically powerful companies, to the ire of many prominent Democrats and Democratic donors.

While I have sometimes disagreed with decisions taken by the FCC or FTC, under both Republican and Democratic control, I understand the importance of expert agencies that are free from day-to-day political interference.

President Trump, like other presidents have done, is free to express his views as to what the agencies should prioritize, and to nominate like-minded commissioners as vacancies arise. But, as directed by Congress, and reflected in commissioners' protection from being fired due to policy or political differences with the president, such agencies must make the final call on policy decisions.

The notion that independent agencies are ‘unaccountable’ is, on its face, absurd. The president nominates all agency commissioners, including ones of the opposite party, and names the Chair from among them. Agencies regularly answer to Congress, which controls their budget, and enacts the statutes that spell out the limited scope of their authority. Independent agencies cannot issue regulations without following the strict guidelines of the Administrative Procedure Act, and their rules and enforcement actions are regularly challenged in the courts, and occasionally reversed by Congress.

The wisdom of having independent agencies and tenure protections for certain government officials has been confirmed in recent weeks by the disastrous and irresponsible actions of the lawless Trump administration. One president should not be able to nullify statutes passed into law by past presidents and past Congresses with the stroke of a sharpie. Congress must re-assert its central constitutional role. Further, one hopes that federal judges and Supreme Court justices who, in the past, have lent their support to an imperial vision of the presidency, can see where this is going and act to limit the ability of the president to subvert our democracy and constitutional order.

Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.


John Bergmayer is the Legal Director of Public Knowledge, which promotes freedom of expression, an open internet, and access to affordable communications tools and creative works as it aims to shape policy on behalf of the public interest.


In 'Profoundly Dangerous' Power Grab, Trump Moves to Seize Control of Independent Agencies

"Americans should understand exactly what this is: A giant gift to the corporate class and a Trumpian power grab."


U.S. President Donald Trump, accompanied by White House staff secretary Will Scharf, delivers remarks before signing an executive order on February 18, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida.
(Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)


Jake Johnson
Feb 19, 2025
COMMON DREAMS

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order aimed at bringing the nation's independent agencies—including the Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission—under his control, a sweeping power grab that's expected to spark a legal fight with enormous stakes for the country.

The new executive order, titled "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies," laments that previous administrations "have allowed so-called 'independent regulatory agencies' to operate with minimal presidential supervision" and states that, going forward, "the president and the attorney general, subject to the president's supervision and control, shall provide authoritative interpretations of law for the executive branch."

The order goes on to require that "all executive departments and agencies"—including those granted some independence from the presidency by Congress—"shall submit for review all proposed and final significant regulatory actions to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) within the Executive Office of the President before publication in the Federal Register."

OIRA is part of the Office of Management and Budget, which is run by Project 2025 architect and far-right extremist Russell Vought.

In a fact sheet released alongside the order, the White House specifically names the FTC, the SEC, and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) as agencies it claims have "exercised enormous power over the American people without presidential oversight."

The new order exempts from its far-reaching mandates the "monetary policy functions of the Federal Reserve."

"Not incidentally, both the FTC and SEC have ongoing investigations or enforcement actions against companies owned by Elon Musk."

Robert Weissman, co-president of Public Citizen, said in a statement that the executive order marks an "illegal" attempt to "shield corporations from accountability and centralize more power with Trump and his minions."

"This is a profoundly dangerous idea for the nation's health, safety, environment, and economy—and for our democracy," he added. "Congress made independent agencies independent of the White House for good reason."

Weissman noted that the independence of agencies such as the FTC and SEC is "designed to enable them to perform these duties without undue political pressure from giant corporations, the super-rich and the super-connected."

"Trump's EO would dissolve that independence and put the agencies under Trump's thumb, ensuring they turn a blind eye to wrongdoing by favored corporations and leave consumers and investors out to dry," Weissman continued. "Not incidentally, both the FTC and SEC have ongoing investigations or enforcement actions against companies owned by Elon Musk. Americans should understand exactly what this is: A giant gift to the corporate class and a Trumpian power grab."

The Washington Postreported that Trump's order sets the stage for "a potential Supreme Court fight that could give him significantly more power over those agencies' decisions, budgets, and leadership." Trump has already trampled decades of legal precedent by firing protected officials without cause, including the former chair of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).

"Courts have blocked or limited the reach of some of Trump's executive actions, but legal observers expect that the conservative-dominated Supreme Court may be open to broadening presidential power in at least some of the cases," the Post observed. "The justices are already considering a case regarding the scope of Trump's power over independent agencies, and Tuesday's executive order seems sure to prompt additional legal challenges."

Deborah Pearlstein, a constitutional scholar at Princeton University, told the newspaper that the White House is "deliberately teeing up a major question of constitutional law that will go to the Supreme Court for review."

The Supreme Court is currently controlled by a right-wing supermajority that includes three Trump-appointed justices.

Prior to Trump's order, the U.S. Justice Department—headed by Attorney General Pam Bondi—indicated that it would no longer defend the independence of the NLRB, FTC, and other agencies and would ask the Supreme Court to reverse precedent that has shielded independent agency leaders from termination without cause.

Reutersreported that "about two dozen companies, including Amazon and Elon Musk's SpaceX, have filed lawsuits since last year claiming the president should have the power to fire NLRB members at will."

"Several companies sued by the FTC have filed similar challenges against that agency," the outlet added. "They include Meta Platforms, Walmart, and Cigna's Express Scripts."





Baltic region prepares for war as Russia and US debate Ukraine's fate

As Russia and the US debate Ukraine’s future, countries on the Baltic Sea are ramping up preparations for a military conflict amid fears that Russia is preparing for a future war with NATO.


Issued on: 19/02/2025 - 
FRANCE24
By: Joanna YORK

01:52
A crew member monitors the horizon from the bridge deck of patrol ship HMS Carlskrona (P04) as part of the NATO Baltic Sea patrol mission on February 4, 2025. 
© Johan Nilsson, AFP

As Russia and the US held talks in Saudi Arabia this week over the future of the conflict in Ukraine, countries on the Baltic Sea released a flurry of intelligence reports warning of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to expand military conflict further into Europe.

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned that Russia is expanding its armed forces in a way that “prepares for a potential future war with NATO”. Danish intelligence, meanwhile, have forecast that Russia would be ready to wage a "large-scale war" in Europe within five years, if it perceived NATO as weak.

A weakening of the trans-Atlantic alliance now feels inevitable. Following a withering attack on Europe delivered by US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference last week, and Russia-US talks on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia this week, rumours swirled that the US under new President Donald Trump planned to pull its NATO troops from the Baltic States.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all former Soviet States and share a land border with Russia.

“There is a feeling that, if the trans-Atlantic bridge is not falling apart, it has been seriously damaged,” says Dr. Māris Andžāns, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga, Latvia. “Biden travelled to Kyiv during the war and now Trump is ready to travel to Moscow. It’s quite a turn-around.”
‘Large-scale war’?

The Nordic-Baltic 8 (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden) have been some of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters since the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022.

In the intervening years they have also ramped up their own efforts to counter possible Russian military aggression, from boosting defence spending to raising awareness among citizens of what to do in the event of large-scale conflict.

01:26
In Lithuania, the government has reintroduced military conscription, doubled the size of its armed forces and ramped up defence spending to 3.45% of GDP – one of the highest rates of any NATO country.

Should a Russian invasion happen tomorrow, “we’re a lot better prepared than a decade ago”, says Andžāns. Although, he says, “there is still space for progress. We still don’t have critical aerial defence”.

A Latvian intelligence report released this week assessed the threat of Russia engaging in a direct conflict with a NATO country in the next 12 months as “low” – as long as it’s military is still fighting in Ukraine.

Why Europe’s leadership is skeptical of negotiating with Putin

The idea that US President Donald Trump’s negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin will bring about lasting peace in Ukraine has been met with scepticism across Europe. FRANCE 24 spoke to political scientist Anton Shekhovtsov about what the US can learn from earlier attempts to end Russian occupation across the former Soviet Union.


Issued on: 19/02/2025 - 
By: Paul MILLAR

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the government via videoconference, at the Constantine Palace in Strelna, St. Petersburg, on February 18, 2025. © Mikhail Metzel, AFP


“About us, without us”. Hearing this slogan, popularised across what was then Czechoslovakia in the wake of the 1938 Munich agreement, it’s not hard to see why some commentators are reaching back to the eve of World War II to attack US President Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict directly with Moscow. The Munich agreement, struck by the major European powers in 1938, ceded the country’s strategic Sudetenland to Nazi Germany to stave off the threat of war, in vain.

Kyiv, like Prague before it, has so far been left out of the talks taking place between negotiators from Russia and the US – talks that will quite literally determine the shape of Ukraine’s future. And while President Volodymyr Zelensky has not hidden his disappointment in being excluded from the first round of preliminary talks in Riyadh this week, Trump has been unsympathetic.

“I hear that they're upset about not having a seat," he told reporters at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday. “Well, you've been there for three years ... You should have never started it. You could have made a deal."

Read moreTrump brands Zelensky 'a dictator'


But those sceptical of the prospects of such a deal being struck between the White House and the Kremlin don’t have to look as far back as the 1930s. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian troops have repeatedly occupied swathes of territory in former Soviet republics – and despite years of negotiations overseen by European powers, they still haven’t left.

In Moldova, Russian forces are still stationed in the breakaway region of Transnistria, which declared its – largely unrecognised – independence as the USSR fell in ruins around it. And a full fifth of Georgia’s territory is still occupied by Russian troops who routed Tbilisi's forces following the Georgian government’s efforts to violently suppress secessionist movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In both cases, fierce fighting gave way to frozen conflicts as European powers pushed for negotiated ends to the bloodshed.

Anton Shekhovtsov, a visiting professor at the Central European University in Vienna and a researcher on European nationalist movements, spoke with FRANCE 24 about what the US could learn from these long-stalled efforts to bring about lasting peace in the former Soviet Union.

Watch moreThe death of NATO? Europe in crisis over Trump-Putin talks

Looking back at the 2008 crisis in Georgia, we seem to have a couple of competing narratives. Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy as the mediator put forward the idea that this was a successful de-escalation, a way of ensuring that Russia’s advance towards Tbilisi was stopped. Whereas other people, especially in the context of what later happened in Ukraine, look back at this moment as almost having given the green light for Putin to extend Russian influence into other former Soviet republics. In your view, what are some of the lessons we should be learning from how that conflict was handled in 2008?

Before 2008 there was another case, and that case is actually older than any of the things that we are discussing today – it’s the case of Transnistria and Moldova. Transnistria is Moldovan territory, and it’s been occupied by the Russians since the beginning of the 90s. And there were several meetings, several conferences throughout the period that followed the occupation of Transnistria, where Russia agreed to withdraw its military forces, its occupation forces from Moldova – and it failed every deadline. The forces are still there.

As to 2008, I understand why Sarkozy was bragging about that being the conclusion of the conflict, but it wasn’t. Even that agreement stipulated that Russia would withdraw its forces, and that did not happen.
What is the Ukrainians' reaction to Trump blaming Ukraine for not ending the war?

03:00







And this is a pattern that we are observing, as I said from the case of Moldova in the 90s. Russia always tries to reach an agreement which it necessarily breaks. It's a pattern, it breaks the promises that it makes because it knows that nobody is going to enforce the agreements, nobody is going to hold Russia accountable for breaking its promises and agreements.

And this is the pattern that we are observing now with Ukraine – what Russia is trying to do at the moment is exactly the same thing as it did with Moldova and Georgia. And there is another pattern – every American administration, probably with the exception of Biden's presidency, has these illusions that it can make a lasting peace with Russia. It failed every time.

After 2008, Obama came up with this idea of a reset in 2009 of the relations between the US and Russia, thinking that it will somehow make Russia more agreeable or more peaceful – it failed. And now, the second Trump presidency is trying to do another reset – they don't call it a reset, but in the end, it is what it is, and the Russians will lie, they will try to fool, to cheat.

You’re painting quite a grim outlook on any attempt at a negotiated end to the conflict. What, in your mind, is the alternative to trying to establish that expectation of a normal relationship that Russia can have not just with its immediate neighbours but with the EU and the US?

This grim picture is based on observations, based on evidence, on what was happening. And I believe that, unfortunately, as long as Vladimir Putin is in power or has any relation to power in Russia, nothing will change with Russia with its relation to Europe, to the US, to Ukraine.

The only alternative today is to support Ukraine as long as possible. If Putin is still there, he will not abandon his maximalist plans regarding Ukraine, which are about the destruction of the Ukrainian state and nation. He has not changed his mind, he just wants to somehow fool the Western observers, especially in the US – I think Europeans are now very difficult to fool, Europeans know what Putin’s Russia is about – at least the mainstream elites know about that.

Andrey Kurkov: 'You can't write fiction when your houses, cities are shelled with missiles, drones'


Trump, he doesn't care about Europe, he doesn't care about Ukraine. He doesn't even care about Russia, in fact, he cares about the media headlines. He's a guy whose efforts are driven by the idea of getting a Nobel Prize for Peace, as Obama did – he cares about media visibility. But it doesn't solve the very complex and deep problems with Ukraine or Russia.

And I think that the only alternative today is to continue supporting Ukraine – all those negotiations, yes, this is all fine – but I just don’t believe that Russia is serious about ending the conflict. It wants the conflict to end with the destruction of Ukraine, or making Ukraine lose its sovereignty. I'm not even talking about territorial Integrity – the restoration of Ukraine's borders in the short or mid-term is unfortunately not going to happen. I mean making Ukraine basically a dysfunctional state – this is the aim. I don't believe Putin, because there is no single piece of evidence from the past that would make Putin a trustworthy politician.

You mentioned this idea that a lot of the European leadership has now lost some of their illusions in the prospect of how far diplomacy will get them with Putin. Do you see that process of disillusionment happening throughout the course of the negotiations around the enforcement of the Minsk agreementsAngela Merkel especially has been quite defensive about her own legacy in terms of seeking a rapprochement between Germany – and the wider European Union – and Putin's Russia.

It's not only about the Minsk agreements. I think these Illusions have been shattered by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and by the atrocities that Russians have been committing in Ukraine during this full-scale invasion. That I think was the real understanding, this is when it came to the European leadership.

I don’t think anyone took the Minsk agreements seriously from any side. These agreements were basically dictated by Russia at gunpoint and this is not something that leads to peace. And for Ukraine the strategy was to somehow try to avoid those agreements because those were not the agreements that Ukraine wanted.

But it had to sign them. That was a forced decision. And I think morally, Ukraine has all the rights to avoid something that was imposed on the country. But now, Minsk III is off the table – Ukraine will not be fooled, and I’m sure Europe will not be fooled by those.

A lot of people reacted with some degree of shock, if not necessarily surprise, at how quickly President Trump reached out directly to President Putin and moved forward with this initial meeting in Riyadh – without a Ukrainian presence. You wrote recently about what you call the minimum requirements for victory for Ukraine that would have to emerge from any sort of negotiated end to this. What, in your mind, is the best framework that would give Ukraine the chance to obtain these minimum requirements?

So these minimum requirements, the first is about Ukraine being heavily armed – this is about giving Ukraine more advanced weapons, and in greater numbers. The second point is EU membership for Ukraine. And the third, the most important one and the most difficult one is, of course, security guarantees for Ukraine that a similar invasion will not happen at least in mid-term – nobody knows what's going to happen in the long term, of course. Security guarantees are the issue that is being most hotly discussed today.

And there are many options. Now, what is being discussed, and I think misleadingly actually, is sending troops to Ukraine – having European boots on the ground. This is all very good, but it’s misleading in the way that if we're talking about peacekeeping forces for Ukraine, we should not start with boots on the ground.

Yes, Ukraine may need additional military personnel but what Ukraine much more urgently needs is to secure its airspace – and for that you don’t really need boots on the ground, you need additional European air forces shooting down the rockets and drones that Russia is regularly sending to Ukraine. I’m not saying that those airspace peacekeeping forces should be functional today. But Europe could start with talking about this.

What happened in Israel when Iran attacked Israel with rockets and drones? You had Western forces just shooting down all those things. And in Ukraine, Russia continues to dominate the airspace. So, instead of trying to scare our domestic audiences about boots on the ground, these discussions would probably be better if they started with securing or pledges to secure Ukraine's airspace.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
 


Since the conflict escalated in 2022, Russia has paused planned military developments along its northern borders with NATO countries, such as more than doubling the 30,000 troops it has stationed along its border with Finland.

“But the concern is, especially if the war in Ukraine stops, Russia will focus very much on rebuilding its military organisation,” says Katarzyna Zysk, professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.

According to Latvian intelligence, in this scenario Russia would be able to restore its military force enough to pose a significant threat to NATO within five years.

Even while engaged in the conflict, Putin in September ordered that the Russian army be increased by 180,000 troops to 1.5 million active service members, which would make it the world’s second largest army, after China.

“Russia wants to achieve the objectives which it has been pursuing systematically since the early 2000s,” Zysk says – namely, expanding Russia’s sphere of influence and undermining the US as a dominant international force, especially in Europe.

“They are very expansive ambitions, and they indicate that Russia is preparing for a large-scale confrontation,” Zysk adds.
Hybrid warfare

That is not to say that Russia is set on military conflict – more that “it is something that you cannot rule out”, Andžāns says.

Hence Latvia’s installation of defence infrastructure including anti-tank obstacles along its borders with Russia and Belarus, and similar measures in Finland, Latvia and Estonia – all EU and NATO members that share land borders with Russia.

In a bid to prevent Russia weaponising the electricity grid against them, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania last week successfully connected to the European power grid, severing Soviet-era links with Russia's network.

Read moreBaltic states join European power grid after cutting ties with Russia's network

But the Baltic Sea, where eight EU and NATO countries share a maritime border with Russia, has already become a tension point, as several undersea telecom and power cables have been severed in recent months.

Moscow has denied deliberately targeting submarine infrastructure, which is frequently damaged by fishing trawlers. But experts, and politicians including Latvia’s president, have accused Russia of using non-military tactics to wage a "hybrid war".

Hybrid war tactics aiming to destabilise societies and spread discord take place in the “gray zone”, below the threshold of armed conflict and outside legal frameworks, making them difficult for Western countries to identify and respond to. But they add to a sense that a form of conflict with Russia has already begun.

“Russia is conducting espionage in the Baltic Sea, both in the technical space and also the virtual space, and it is conducting information operations in Latvia,” Andžāns says.

Read moreRussia accused of meddling in the GPS systems of Baltic Sea countries

In the Latvian capital of Riga, there has been an uptick in pro-Russian vandalism cases, including a Molotov cocktail thrown inside the Latvian Occupation Museum, which documents the Nationalist and Soviet occupations.

The museum’s director said the bomb constituted an attack “on the foundations of the Latvian state, the constitution and the truth”.

“Russia is playing a very long game using this full spectrum of tools,” Zysk says.

Looking to the future, “Russia is certainly going to use political, economic and informational means to influence politics, polarize debates and create chaos”, Zysk adds.

“And I don't see any reason why Russia would not use military means, under certain circumstances. It has proven time and time again that it is willing to do that.”



Fact-checking Trump's statements on Ukraine

05:32TRUTH OR FAKE © FRANCE 24

Issued on: 19/02/2025 - 

US President Donald Trump has launched a flurry of controversial claims about the war in Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky, while addressing reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort. Many of these claims were made without providing any evidence. We fact-check these claims in this edition of Truth or Fake.



 

A new method combining peridynamics and deep learning for improving land subsidence modeling and simulation





Beijing Zhongke Journal Publising Co. Ltd.

Flowchart of the land subsidence modeling and simulation combining peridynamics and deep learning 

image: 

Based on using peridynamics to describe the physical processes of regional land subsidence, deep learning methods, including neural networks and Gaussian Process Regression, are employed to construct various boundary conditions that adapt to temporal developments and changes. This approach enables the optimization of boundary conditions within the peridynamics-based land subsidence model.

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Credit: Beijing Zhongke Journal Publising Co. Ltd.




Land subsidence is a geological disaster that occurs when natural factors or human engineering activities cause the consolidation and compression of loose underground rock formations, resulting in a drop in ground elevation over a certain area. Currently, the problem of land subsidence is getting more serious. Its complexity, harm, and uncertainty are on the rise, affecting over 150 countries and regions globally. Modeling, simulating, and predicting land subsidence is of utmost importance for the sustainable development of the regional resource - environment and social economy.

As a new physical model method in the research of land subsidence, peridynamics builds models based on the idea of non-local interaction and can be used to study the deformation, damage, and fracture of homogeneous and inhomogeneous targets. Existing research has shown that peridynamics has good applicability in land subsidence modeling. Considering that physical models and deep learning can complement each other very well, their integration is a promising approach to further improve the simulation and prediction of land subsidence.

Recently, a study in the Journal of Geo-information Science brought good news. A research team from Capital Normal University, led by Professor Huili Gong and Professor Xiaojuan Li, proposed an innovative method. By combining peridynamics and deep learning, they aimed to enhance the accuracy of ground subsidence simulation. The research focused on Tongzhou District in Beijing, which has long been troubled by land subsidence. The team analyzed data from September 2021 to May 2023, dividing it into training and test sets. Results indicated that for the combined model, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 6.25 mm for the training set and 7.71 mm for the test set. Compared with traditional methods, the errors were reduced by 72.37% and 65.92% respectively.

This research highlights the complementary strengths of physical models and deep learning. Peridynamics provides a solid framework for understanding land subsidence's physical processes, while deep learning improves the model's ability to handle complex and dynamic boundary conditions. Their combination offers a more effective way to simulate land subsidence in areas with complex geological structures. The study's results are significant for urban planning, disaster prevention, and mitigation, especially in areas prone to land subsidence, and can strongly support the safe development of cities.

For more details, please refer to the original article:
Cheng S Y, Guan Z B, Gong H L, Li X J*, et al. Land subsidence modeling and simulation methods using peridynamics and deep learning[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2025, 27(1): 181-192https://www.dqxxkx.cn/CN/10.12082/dqxxkx.2025.240506

https://www.sciengine.com/JGIS/doi/10.12082/dqxxkx.2025.240506(If you want to read the English version of the full text, please click on the “iFLYTEK Translation” in the article pages.)

 

Clues of advanced ancient technology found in the Philippines and Island Southeast Asia

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Ateneo de Manila University

Rope making is an ancient skill 

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New archaeological evidence suggests that ancient inhabitants of the Philippines and Island Southeast Asia had the advanced plant-working technology needed for sophisticated boat building and open-sea fishing.

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Credit: Alfred Pawlik

The ancient peoples of the Philippines and of Island Southeast Asia (ISEA) may have built sophisticated boats and mastered seafaring tens of thousands of years ago—millennia before Magellan, Zheng He, and even the Polynesians.

In a new paper coming out in the April 2025 issue of the Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, Ateneo de Manila University researchers Riczar Fuentes and Alfred Pawlik challenge the widely-held contention that technological progress during the Paleolithic only emerged in Europe and Africa.

They point out that much of ISEA was never connected to mainland Asia, neither by land bridges nor by ice sheets, yet it has yielded evidence of early human habitation. Exactly how these peoples achieved such daring ocean crossings is an enduring mystery, as organic materials like wood and fiber used for boats rarely survive in the archaeological record. But archaeological sites in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Timor-Leste are now providing strong evidence that ancient seafarers had a technological sophistication comparable to much later civilizations.

Microscopic analysis of stone tools excavated at these sites, dating as far back as some 40,000 years ago, showed clear traces of plant processing—particularly the extraction of fibers necessary for making ropes, nets, and bindings essential for boatbuilding and open-sea fishing. Archaeological sites in Mindoro and Timor-Leste also yielded the remains of deep ocean fish such as tuna and sharks as well as fishing implements such as fishing hooks, gorges, and net weights. 

“The remains of large predatory pelagic fish in these sites indicate the capacity for advanced seafaring and knowledge of the seasonality and migration routes of those fish species,” the researchers said in their paper. Meanwhile, the discovery of fishing implements “indicates the need for strong and well-crafted cordage for ropes and fishing lines to catch the marine fauna.” 

This body of evidence points to the likelihood that these ancient seafarers built sophisticated boats out of organic composite materials held together with plant-based ropes and also used the same rope technology for open-sea fishing. If so, then prehistoric migrations across ISEA were not undertaken by mere passive sea drifters on flimsy bamboo rafts but by highly skilled navigators equipped with the knowledge and technology to travel vast distances and to remote islands over deep waters.  

Several years of fieldwork in Ilin Island, Occidental Mindoro, inspired the researchers to think of this topic and to test this hypothesis. Together with naval architects from the University of Cebu, they recently started the First Long-Distance Open-Sea Watercrafts (FLOW) Project, supported by a research grant from the Ateneo de Manila University, with the aim of testing raw materials that were probably used in the past, and to design and test scaled-down seacraft models. 

The presence of such advanced maritime technology in prehistoric ISEA highlights the ingenuity of early Philippine peoples and their neighbors, whose boat-building knowledge likely made the region a center for technological innovations tens of thousands of years ago and laid the foundations for the maritime traditions that still thrive in the region today. 

  

Evidence of plant-working technology in ancient human habitations across Island Southeast Asia suggests that the prehistoric peoples of the Philippines and their neighbors possessed both sophisticated seacraft and advanced nautical skills.

Credit

Riczar Fuentes and Alfred Pawlik