Monday, March 10, 2025

 

Research shows humans have a long way to go in understanding a dog’s emotions




Arizona State University
dog experiment 

video: 

New research from Arizona State University shows that people use contextual visual clues to determine a dog’s emotions, as exemplified in this short video, rather than focusing on the dog itself. 

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Credit: Arizona State University






Tempe, Ariz., March 10, 2025 – Life with a dog is a matter of give and take. Especially when it comes to communication. With no common human-dog language, our ability to communicate relies on understanding and reading our pet, and vice versa. That process can seem seamless. You give your dog a treat, you look into her eyes and she says “I am delighted to have that cookie.” With a slight wag of her tail, she accepts the treat and romps off to another room to enjoy it. You feel connected to your dog.

 

At least, that’s what you think. 

 

New research from Arizona State University has revealed that people often do not perceive the true meaning of their pet’s emotions and can misread their dog. The reasons for this are many and include a human misunderstanding of dog expressions due to a bias towards projecting human emotions onto our pets. 

 

In a new paper, “Barking up the wrong tree: Human perceptions of dog emotions is influenced by extraneous factors,” ASU researchers Holly Molinaro and Clive Wynne outline a pair of experiments they ran to show how humans misperceive dog emotions. Their research shows that humans typically do not have a good understanding of the emotional state of their dog because they judge the dog’s emotions according to the context of the event they witness.

 

“People do not look at what the dog is doing, instead they look at the situation surrounding the dog and base their emotional perception off of that,” said Molinaro, an ASU Ph.D. student in psychology and animal welfare scientist.

 

“Our dogs are trying to communicate with us, but we humans seem determined to look at everything except the poor pooch himself.” added Wynne, an ASU psychology professor who studies dog behavior and the human-dog bond.

 

Adding to the misunderstanding is a human projection of their feelings onto the dog. This “anthropomorphizing” of the interaction further clouds truly understanding what your dog’s emotional state actually may be, what she is trying to tell you.

 

In two experiments, Molinaro and Wynne investigated human perception of dog emotions. They video recorded a dog in what they believed were positive (happy-making) or negative (less happy) situations. 

 

The happy situations were things like offering the leash or a treat, and the unhappy scenarios included gentle chastisement, or bringing out the dreaded vacuum cleaner. Then, in one experiment they showed ordinary members of the public these videos with and without their visual background. In the second experiment they edited the videos so the dog who had been filmed in a happy context looked like he had been recorded in an unhappy situation, and the dog who had been filmed in an unhappy situation looked like he was in a happy one. In both experiments, people rated how happy and excited they thought the dogs were. Sample size for the first experiment was 383 and for the second experiment was 485.

 

What the researchers found was that people’s perception of the dog’s mood was based on everything in the videos besides the dog himself. 

 

“People do not look at what the dog is doing, instead, they look at the situation surrounding the dog and base their emotional perception on that,” Molinaro said. “You see a dog getting a treat, you assume he must be feeling good. You see a dog getting yelled at, you assume he’s feeling bad. These assumptions of how you think the dog is feeling have nothing to do with the dog’s behavior or emotional cues, which is very striking.”

 

“In our study, when people saw a video of a dog apparently reacting to a vacuum cleaner, everyone said the dog was feeling bad and agitated,” she continued. “But when they saw a video of the dog doing the exact same thing, but this time appearing to react to seeing his leash, everyone reported that the dog was feeling happy and calm. People were not judging a dog’s emotions based on the dog’s behavior, but on the situation the dog was in.”

 

Further complicating the communication process is people’s projection of their emotions onto the dog. Molinaro explained that while humans and dogs have shared a bond over the centuries, that doesn’t mean their emotional processing, or even emotional expressions, are the same. 

 

“I have always found this idea that dogs and humans must have the same emotions to be very biased and without any real scientific proof to back it up, so I wanted to see if there are factors that might actually be affecting our perception of dog emotions,” Molinaro said. “If there were, if we as humans focused on other aspects not relating to the dog to deduce their emotional state, then as both scientists and pet owners, we really have to go back to the drawing board.”

 

Molinaro explained that even in studies of human perception of human emotions it is clear that there is more to reading emotion than just looking at a person’s face. Culture, mood, situational context, even a previous facial expression can influence how people perceive emotions. Yet when it comes to animal emotions, no one has yet studied if those same factors affect us in the same way. 

 

“Our research here shows that for one of those factors, the situational context, it does.”

 

So how does a good dog owner cut through the biases and misreadings to understand their pets true emotional state?

 

“The first step is just to be aware that we are not that good at reading dogs’ emotions,” she said. “We need to be humbler in our understanding of our dogs. Once we can start from a basis of understanding our biases, we can begin to look at our pups in a new light.”

 

“Every dog’s personality, and thus her emotional expressions, are unique to that dog,” Molinaro explains. “Really pay attention to your own dog’s cues and behaviors.” 

 

“When you yell at your dog for doing something bad and she makes that guilty face, is it really because she is guilty, or is it because she is scared you are going to reprimand her more? Taking an extra second or two to focus on your dog’s behaviors, knowing that you need to overcome a bias to view the situation around the dog rather than the dog himself, can go a long way in getting a true read on your own dog’s emotional state, leading to a stronger bond between the two of you.”

 

Molinaro and Wynne’s research is published in the journal Anthrozoos.

 

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Discovery: The great whale pee funnel


Whales move nutrients thousands of miles—in their urine—from as far as Alaska to Hawaii, supporting health of tropical ecosystems and fish


University of Vermont

Humpback whale urinating underwater 

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Footage by Lars Bejder shows a humpback whale urinating underway near Hawaii.

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Credit: Lars Bejder, NOAA permit 21476




Whales are not just big, they’re a big deal for healthy oceans. When they poop, whales move tons of nutrients from deep water to the surface. Now new research shows that whales also move tons of nutrients thousands of miles—in their urine.

In 2010, scientists revealed that whales, feeding at depth and pooping at the surface, provide a critical resource for plankton growth and ocean productivity. Today, a new University of Vermont-led study shows that whales also carry huge quantities of nutrients horizontally, across whole ocean basins, from rich, cold waters where they feed to warm shores near the equator where they mate and give birth. Much of this is in the form of urine—though sloughed skin, carcasses, calf feces, and placentas also contribute.

“These coastal areas often have clear waters, a sign of low nitrogen, and many have coral reef ecosystems,” says Joe Roman, a biologist at the University of Vermont, who co-led the new research. “The movement of nitrogen and other nutrients can be important to the growth of phytoplankton, or microscopic algae, and provide food for sharks and other fish and many invertebrates.”

The study, published March 10 in the journal Nature Communications, calculates that in oceans across the globe, great whales—including right whales, gray whales, and humpbacks—transport about 4000 tons of nitrogen each year to low-nutrient coastal areas in the tropics and subtropics. They also bring more than 45,000 tons of biomass. And before the era of human whaling decimated populations, these long-distance inputs may have been three or more times larger.

A giant conveyor belt

For example, thousands of humpback whales travel from a vast area where they feed in the Gulf of Alaska to a more restricted area in Hawaii, where they breed. There, in the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, the input of nutrients—tons of pee, skin, dead bodies and poop—from whales roughly double what is transported by local physical forces, the team of scientists estimate.

“We call it the ‘great whale conveyor belt,”” Roman says, “or it can also be thought of as a funnel because whales feed over large areas, but they need to be in a relatively confined space to find a mate, breed, and give birth. At first, the calves don't have the energy to travel long distances like the moms can.” Plus, the whales probably stay in shallow, sandy waters because it muffles their sounds. “Moms and newborns are calling all the time, staying in communication,” says Roman, a conservation researcher in the Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources and fellow in UVM's Gund Institute for Environment “and they don’t want predators, like killer whales, or breeding humpback males, to pick up on that.”

Which means that nutrients spread out over the vast ocean get concentrated in much smaller coastal and coral ecosystems, “like collecting leaves to make compost for your garden,” Roman says.

In the summer, adult whales feed at high latitudes (like Alaska, Iceland, and Antarctica), putting on tons of fat, chowing down on krill and herring. According to recent research, North Pacific humpback whales gain about 30 pounds per day in the spring, summer, and fall. They need this energy for an amazing journey: baleen whales migrate thousands of miles to their winter breeding grounds in the tropics—without eating. For example, gray whales travel nearly 7000 miles between feeding grounds off Russia and breeding areas along Baja California. And humpback whales in the Southern Hemisphere migrate more than 5000 miles from foraging areas near Antarctica to mating sites off Costa Rica, where they burn off about 200 pounds each day, while urinating vast amounts of nitrogen-rich urea. (One study in Iceland suggests that fin whales produce more than 250 gallons of urine per day when they are feeding. Humans pee less than half a gallon daily.)

Whales undertake the longest migration of any mammal in the world. And whales are gigantic. “Because of their size, whales are able to do things that no other animal does. They're living life on a different scale,” says Andrew Pershing, one of ten co-authors on the new study and an oceanographer at the nonprofit organization, Climate Central. “Nutrients are coming in from outside—and not from a river, but by these migrating animals. It’s super-cool, and changes how we think about ecosystems in the ocean. We don't think of animals other than humans having an impact on a planetary scale, but the whales really do.” 

Out of the blues

Before industrial whaling began in the nineteenth century, the nutrient inputs would have “been much bigger and this effect would've been much bigger,” says Pershing. Plus, the nutrient inputs of blue whales—the largest animals to ever live on the Earth—are not known and were not included in the primary calculations of the new study.  In the Southern Ocean, blue whale populations are still greatly reduced after intense hunting in the twentieth century. “There's basic things that we don't know about them, like where their breeding areas are,’’ said Pershing, “so that's an effect that's harder for us to capture.” Both blue whales and humpbacks were depleted from hunting, but some humpback and other whale populations are rebounding after several decades of concerted conservation efforts.

“Lots of people think of plants as the lungs of the planet, taking in carbon dioxide, and expelling oxygen,” says Joe Roman, “For their part, animals play an important role in moving nutrients. Seabirds transport nitrogen and phosphorus from the ocean to the land in their poop, increasing the density of plants on islands. Animals form the circulatory system of the planet—and whales are the extreme example.”


Many whales travel thousands of miles from their summer foraging areas to winter grounds for breeding and calving. Nitrogen and other elements can be released in the form of urine, carcasses, placentas, sloughing skin, and feces (primarily from nursing calves). Humpback whales of the Central North Pacific, shown here, primarily feed off the coast of Alaska and spend winters in the shallow waters of the Hawaiian archipelago. (Illustration by A. Boersma; text adapted from original study in Nature Communications).

Credit

Illustration by A. Boersma



Italy ordered to compensate migrants held on rescue ship in 2018

DPA
Fri, March 7, 2025 


Italian Minister of Infrastructure and Transport and Vice President of the Council of Ministers Matteo Salvini speaks during a press conference to present the Italian stage of the Superbike WorldSBK 'Acerbis Italian Round' that will be held from 2 to 4 May at the Cremona Circuit in Palazzo Lombardia. Alessandro Bremec/IPA via ZUMA Press/dpa

Italy's highest court on Friday ruled that the government must pay compensation to a group of migrants who were held for around 10 days in 2018 on a coastguard ship after being rescued in the Mediterranean.

At the time, just over 150 migrants were rescued by the Italian coastguard.

Then interior minister Matteo Salvini banned the migrants from disembarking the coastguard's Diciotti ship in the port of Catania in Sicily.

They were only allowed to leave the boat after Albania and Italy offered to take in some of the group. The Catholic Church in Italy also offered to help.

Some migrants demanded compensation after the incident. Following Friday's decision by the Supreme Court of Cassation, a court must now determine the exact amount of damages to be paid.

Italy's right-wing government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, criticized the court's decision, complaining that the government would have to use "the money of honest Italian citizens who pay taxes" to compensate people who "tried to enter Italy illegally."





Japan’s new 3,000-ton submarine with Harpoon missiles poses threat to China

Prabhat Ranjan Mishra
Fri, March 7, 2025 



Japan has commissioned a new hunter-killer submarine that can operate in shallow seas to protect borders. Called Raigei or Thunder Whale, the diesel-electric submarine is initially planned to operate around waters near the country's mainland where Chinese and Russian vessels operate.

Built at Kawasaki Heavy Industry’s shipyards in Kobe, the 3,000-ton submarine is the fourth vessel in the country's Taigei class of vessels.

Prepared at a cost of $470 million, the submarine is powered by diesel-electric engines generating 6,000 hp and has a maximum underwater speed of 20 knots.
Better detection and anti-detection capabilities

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) revealed that Raigei has better detection and anti-detection capabilities compared to the older Taigei class of submarines.

Equipped with lithium-ion batteries in place of lead-acid ones, the vessel uses new Kawasaki 12V 25/31 diesel engines that are suitable with a new snorkel system for enhanced power generation efficiency.

At 84 meters from bow to stern, a displacement of 3,000 tons, and a crew of 70, the Raigei has an ultra-quiet diesel-electric propulsion system that combines a diesel engine and lithium-ion batteries. Its six torpedo tubes can fire the MSDF’s Type-18 torpedoes and also launch the Harpoon all-weather anti-shipping missiles from below the surface, reported SCMP.

Although the submarine isn't nuclear powered, however, reports revealed that the vessel can meet Japan's maritime needs.

New combat management system

The submarine also employs a new combat management system (CMS) combining advanced integrated sensors, command-and-control, and weapon engagement systems. In addition, it adopts an enhanced snorkel system to reduce signatures, and a new-generation sonar system based on fiber-optic array technology to enhance detection capability, reported Naval News.

Additionally, the Taigei-class is the first being equipped with a new domestically produced non-penetrating periscope manufactured by Mitsubishi Electric.

Lithium batteries used in the submarines also improves its operational flexibility, underwater endurance when compared to conventional vessels.
Six torpedo tubes bolsters vessel's offensive capabilities

The submarine has ZQQ-8 sonar suite, which is an upgraded version of the ZQQ-7 system used in the preceding Soryu-class submarines.

The vessel has six 533mm HU-606 torpedo tubes that can launch Type 18 torpedoes and UGM-84L Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles, which have a range of approximately 248 kilometers. With such weapon systems, the submarine can hit the targets beyond visual range.

Electronic warfare and countermeasure systems

The vessel's offensive capabilities against both surface and subsurface threats could pose a major challenge to China. The submarine is also equipped with electronic warfare and countermeasure systems that bolsters its survivability against attacks and detection.

The Raigei has been assigned to the 1st Submarine Squadron of Submarine Flotilla 1, stationed at the Kure Base in Hiroshima Prefecture. It will play a critical role in Japan's maritime security strategy, particularly in response to increasing naval activities in the region.

With the Chinese Navy expected to expand its presence in the Western Pacific, Japanese submarines, known for their stealth capabilities, are anticipated to play a key role in monitoring and deterring potential threats.


Meet the defense giants that will rearm Europe as the EU eyes a massive military buildup

Stuart Dyos
Sun, March 9, 2025

The European Union will implement the ReArm Europe Plan and boost its defense spending by €800 billion. Fortune compiled some of the European defense contractors that might pick up European needs.

The European Union announced plans to increase its defense spending by €800 billion ($867 billion), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week, unveiling the ReArm Europe plan.

The plan includes €150 billion in loans to help member states buy air defenses, artillery, missiles, “ammunition drones,” and anti-drone systems as well as address other needs like cybersecurity and mobility.

“Europe is ready to massively boost its defense spending. Both, to respond to the short-term urgency to act and to support Ukraine but also to address the long-term need to take on much more responsibility for our own European security,” von der Leyen said in a statement.

The E.U. has felt added pressure from the Trump administration’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine war. Last week, a conversation at the White House between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky turned sour, and the White House has reportedly halted military aid.

As Europe plans to build up its military in preparation for a potential world without U.S. assistance, Fortune has compiled some of the largest European defense players that may take on a larger role to rearm Europe.

BAE Systems

Led by CEO Charles Woodburn, the Camberley, United Kingdom-based company’s revenue reached £26.3 billion in 2024. Its military sectors include air, land, cyber security and intelligence, electronics, and sea systems.

Within its air sector, BAE Systems is a partner in the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet consortium and the F-35 stealth fighter, whose prime contractor is Lockheed Martin.

BAE’s land division makes tracked, untracked, and amphibious combat vehicles. Additionally, the company produces ammunition, precision munitions, artillery systems, missile launchers, precision imaging, and targeting solutions.

In electronics, its repertoire includes flight and engine controls, electronic warfare, night-vision systems, surveillance and reconnaissance sensors, mobile networked-communication equipment, systems integration, and environmentally-friendly energy management systems.


Kuwaiti Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon fighter aircraft fly over during an airshow commemorating Kuwait's 64th Independence Day in Kuwait City on February 25, 2025. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP) (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images)More

Thales

Helmed by CEO Patrice Caine in Meudon, France, Thales specializes in aerospace, defense, digital identity and ground transportation. In 2024, the company generated €20.58 billion in revenue.]
While the company is famous for its space systems, Thales does a wide variety of military work, such as designing smart sensors and connecting soldiers on the digital battlefield.

In January, Thales announced its leadership in the SEACURE program to enhance Europe’s underwater warfare capabilities.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Caine said the flood of EU military spending should stay in Europe.

“If you want to be autonomous, if you want to give meaning to the word sovereignty, you need to be independent from third parties and be as self-sufficient as possible in this type of capability,” he said.


VILLEPINTE, FRANCE - JUNE 21: The FZ602 - Thales Belgium SA Rocket System 70mm, on display at the Eurosatory Defense and Security expo, on June 21, 2024, in Paris-Nord Villepinte exhibition center, Seine-Saint-Denis, France. Eurosatory, held biennially in Paris-Nord Villepinte Exhibition Centre, is the largest international exhibition for the land and air-land defense and security industry. (Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)More

Rheinmetall

Headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany, the automotive and arms manufacturer saw revenue of €8.83 billion under the guidance of CEO Armin Theodor Papperger.

Rheinmetall manufactures tanks, air defense systems, autonomous ground vehicles, guns, missiles, and bombs. Most notably, it produces the Panther KF51 main battle tank.

Rheinmetall also offers flight surveillance systems and aircraft cannons.

The company’s naval division supplies weapons, sensors, and air defense to ships, along with military simulation and training.


14 July 2022, Lower Saxony, Unterlüß: An "infantryman of the future" stands next to a Panther KF51 main battle tank from the Rheinmetall armaments group during a tour of the Rheinmetall plant in Unterlüß on the occasion of the summer trip of Lower Saxony's Economics Minister. The newly developed Panther is one of the most advanced weapons systems in the world. Photo: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa (Photo by Julian Stratenschulte/picture alliance via Getty Images)More

Leonardo

Led by CEO Roberto Cingolani, the Rome, Italy-based company generated more than €20.9 billion in sales last year.

The company is most famously known for its helicopter production, such as the TrekkerM multi-role platform.

The company is part of the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), which includes BAE Systems and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan. The GCAP is working to produce the next-generation of fighter aircraft

On Thursday, Leonardo announced a joint partnership with Turkey’s Baykar to produce unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), in response to the European military spending spike.

The two companies estimate that the European UAV market will reach $100 billion over the next 10 years.

Aside from aviation, Leonardo also specializes in cyber security, electronics, space, and aerostructures.


A person walks past the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) 6th generation fighter jet concept design on the opening day of the Farnborough International Airshow 2024, south west of London, on July 22, 2024. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP) (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images)More

Saab

Headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, the company serves civilian and military markets. Under the guidance of CEO Micael Johansson, Saab’s revenue reached nearly $6 billion in 2024.

Saab makes missiles, submarines, sensors, electronics, the Gripen fighter jet, and is developing future unmanned systems.

Additionally, Saab has over 100-years of experience building submarines. In February, Saab announced its remodel of the HMS Halland submarine, adding upgraded sensors and command systems.

“The launch of the HMS Halland is a testament to Saab’s ability to upgrade and deliver advanced submarines with the capabilities the Swedish Navy requires,” said Mats Wicksell, head of Saab’s Kockums business unit. ”With HMS Halland, the Swedish Navy, and by extension NATO, is given additional muscle to defend and monitor the Baltic Sea.”


A Swedish Air Force Gripen fighter jet during the Ramstein Flag 24 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military air defense training exercise, at Andravida Airbase near Andravida, Greece, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. Ramstein Flag 24 is a new NATO 'flag series' exercise which will bring together 4th/5th gen fighter jets from 13 Allies, Naval and Land forces to train on sophisticated high-end air defence tactics. Photographer: Hilary Swift/Bloomberg via Getty Image

Airbus

The company famous for its planes used in civilian air travel also serves the defense industry. Led by CEO Guillaume Faury, the aerospace giant generated €69.2 billion in revenue last year, €12.4 billion of which came from defense endeavors.

Within the defense unit, Airbus serves the land, air, sea, space, and cyber domains. Based in Toulouse, France, Airbus is a partner on the Eurofighter Typhoon while other planes in its portfolio include the A400M Atlas transport aircraft and the A330 MRTT refueling tanker.

It’s also developing advanced technologies in manned and unmanned platforms, such as Europe's Future Combat Air System.



24 August 2023, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Barth: A Bundeswehr Airbus A 400 transport aircraft lands at the Baltic Sea airport. The A 400 will take the paratroopers of Regiment 31 from Seedorf (Lower Saxony) on board and transport them into the air for a jump. Some 85 jumpers from Parachute Regiment 31 are taking part in the ten-day "Tactical Free Fall Training" exercise, which is being held in Barth for the fourth time this year. Photo: Bernd Wüstneck/dpa (Photo by Bernd Wüstneck/picture alliance via Getty Images)More

Safran

Helmed by CEO Olivier AndriĆØs, the Paris-based company generated €27.3 billion in revenue in 2024.

Safran offers navigation technologies, electro-optical systems, targeting systems, parachutes, the Patroller tactical drone, and missile propulsion systems.

17 juin 2024. Une délégation étrangère se fait expliquer les aptitudes techniques du drome Patroller de SAFRAN. Le Patroller arrive enfin dans les armées françaises avec 5 ans de retard. (Photo by Patrick Robert/Getty Images)More

Fincantieri

Headquartered in Trieste, Italy, Fincantieri is a top shipbuilder under the leadership of CEO Pierroberto Folgiero. The company has yet to report full-year results but has estimated 2024 revenue will top €8 billion.

As European governments look to boost the defense industry, Fincantieri told Fortune it is poised to significantly expand its presence in naval defense, including submarine and underwater technology.

“We are investing in unmanned systems, AI-driven decision-making for autonomous underwater missions, and advanced communication networks to connect subsea assets with surface and space-based systems,” the company said in a statement.


An employee of Naval Group (formerly DCNS), a French industrial group specialised in naval defence and marine renewable energy, works in front of a FREMM "European multi-purpose frigate" under construction, a class of multi-purpose frigates designed by DCNS/Armaris and Fincantieri for the navies of France and Italy, in the group's shipyards on March 29, 2018 in Lorient, western France. / AFP PHOTO / LOIC VENANCE (Photo credit should read LOIC VENANCE/AFP via Getty Images)More


Dassault Aviation

Led by Ɖric Trappier, Dassault Aviation makes military aircraft and business jets. Headquartered in Paris, France, it raked in €6.2 billion in revenue in 2024.

Dassault is most famous for its Mirage and Rafale fighter jets. In addition, Dassualt holds the prime contract under the French government for the nEUROn, an unmanned aircraft.



A Rafale jet fighter is towed on the flight deck of the French Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle during its first-ever port call in Indonesia as part of the Clemenceau 25 mission, a four-month deployment covering the Mediterranean and Indo-Pacific regions to enhance cooperation with allied navies, at Lombok Island, about 35 km east of Bali, on January 28, 2025. Before the port call, the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle took part in the La Perouse 25 multinational naval exercise in the Indo-Pacific region, involving several countries, focusing on maritime security and air operations in the Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok Straits. 
(Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP) 

Russia's arms exports are going bust as foreign buyers bolt and the Ukraine war chews through its weapons

Constantine Atlamazoglou
Sat, March 8, 2025 


Russia's weapons exports have plummeted amid the Ukraine conflict.

France overtook Russia last year as the second-largest arms exporter globally.

Russian weapons makers face a range of challenges that have emerged following the Ukraine invasion.


It has been three years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the conflict has had a profound effect on the Russian weapons industry, causing its arms exports to plummet.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIRPI), which researches conflict and arms, calculates that Russian arms exports decreased by half from 2019 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period.

Other estimates paint an even bleaker picture.

Pavel Luzin, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a DC think-tank, calculated that Russian arms exports tallied less than $1 billion from January to December 2024. They had stood at $14.6 billion in 2021; they dropped to $8 billion in 2022 before falling further to about $3 billion in 2023.

Tellingly, France has surpassed Russia as the world's second-biggest arms exporter.

"We see that Russia, as an arms exporter, has generally failed," Luzin said last November.

The staggering drop in sales is partially the result of a shift by Russian arms manufacturers away from export contracts and toward producing more weapons for the Russian military fighting in Ukraine.

What is Russia rushing to replace?

The Russian military has suffered very high matƩriel losses in the war.

Open-source intelligence website Oryx indicates Russia has lost 3,773 tanks, 1,933 armored fighting vehicles, 5,531 infantry fighting vehicles, 615 armored personnel carriers, nearly 2,000 artillery pieces of all types, and many other pieces of equipment.

Since the above are only the losses that could be verified via photographs or videos, Oryx estimates that true Russian losses are significantly higher.

Russian arms companies have been working overtime to replace them. (Moscow has also been tapping into its inventory of older, Soviet-era equipment; however, 2025 may be the last year it can rely on stored weapons, Luzin wrote in January.)


Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Uralvagonzavod factory in Russia in February 2024Ramil Sitdikov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Although the credibility of official Russian data is suspect, "production of new military equipment increased substantially in 2023," as a result of domestic demand, SIRPI said, with Rostec and Tactical Missile Corp's, Russia's two biggest arms companies, seeing their combined revenues increase by 40% that year.

However, that momentum may not be sustainable.

Increased production has put pressure on Russian arms companies, which face manpower and financial shortages and growing costs due to sanctions imposed by Western countries, Luzin wrote. They, therefore, struggle to keep churning out the necessary equipment and have largely paused foreign contracts.
Where has everyone gone?

Russian companies are also losing customers. In 2019, Russia sold weapons to 31 countries — in 2023, that number had fallen to 12, according to SIRPI. This is a function of supply chains and geopolitics.

Since the purchase of weapons is often a statement of alignment, several countries who used to buy Russian arms have turned to Western, domestic, or other alternatives.


Additionally, due to sanctions imposed on Russia, maintaining Russian weapons is becoming increasingly difficult for buyers. Therefore, to safeguard themselves from uncertain maintenance, countries are seeking safer sellers.

In Asia and Oceania, which had accounted for nearly 70% of overall Russian weapons exports between 2018 and 2023, the US is now the biggest seller. And in sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia used to be the biggest seller, the number one spot is now held by China.

"Russia's arms export categories in the last two decades [have mainly] included air defense systems, combat aircraft/helicopters and their parts (including engines), and some naval systems like diesel-electric submarines, corvettes and anti-ship missiles," Luzin, who is also a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, told Business Insider.

These weapons, however, have been far from excellent, he added.

Research published in The National Interest indicates that China has begun challenging Russia in the lower-value end of the arms spectrum,what is known as the "value arms market."

At the higher end of the spectrum, South Korea has been making significant strides to Russia's detriment thanks to its quick production times and NATO-compatible weapons.

Besides shifting the production focus of its weapons manufacturers, the war in Ukraine has damaged Russian arms exports in more ways, with some of the country's more publicized systems (like the S-400) proving to be more vulnerable on the battlefield than initially touted by Moscow.

Reputational losses are also influencing the downturn of the country's arms exports, Luzin told Business Insider.


Further, the dependency of Russian companies on "import electronics and machine tools on the manufacturing stage" has also had an impact, he added. Access to these components is harder to come by due to international sanctions.

And even when the war ends, things may not go back to business as usual for the Russian arms industry. Covering the lost ground will be "hard enough if not impossible at all," Luzin said.

Business Insider


GLOWING GREEN WASHING
Spain under pressure to abort nuclear energy phase-out

Valentin BONTEMPS
Fri, March 7, 2025 

Spain's energy sources (Julie PEREIRA)Julie PEREIRA/AFP/AFP


Spain, a European renewable energy leader, is coming under increasing pressure from the right and business groups to reverse its plans to phase out its nuclear power plants by 2035.

At the height of enthusiasm for nuclear power in the 1980s, Spain had eight nuclear plants providing 38 percent of its electricity. Now it has five, providing 20 percent of its power.

Under the country's nuclear phase-out plans, agreed in 2019 under the government of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, these remaining plants will be closed over the next decade, as the country focuses instead on green energy sources such as solar and wind power.

But as the planned closure of the country's oldest and most powerful atomic plant at Almaraz in western Spain in 2027-28 approaches, calls are growing for Spain to follow in the footsteps of other European countries that are reviving their nuclear power.

The two reactors at Almaraz generate around seven percent of the total electricity produced in the European Union's fourth-largest economy.

Spain's decision to close its plants "was adopted in a completely different industrial, geopolitical, social and economic context" and no longer makes sense without "a viable alternative," the Nuclear Forum lobby group that represents the sector said in a statement.

Atomic power will be needed to meet Spain's electricity needs as demand will soar due to growing sales of electric vehicles and the expansion of data centres to accommodate the greater use of AI, it added.


- 'Absolutely necessary' -

Ignacio Sanchez Galan, the chairman of Spanish energy company Iberdrola, which operates several atomic power plants as well as renewable energy farms, said nuclear energy is "absolutely necessary" to keep the lights on.

Iberdrola is one of around 30 companies that signed a manifesto last month calling for the extension of Spain's nuclear power plants.

"Dismantling this infrastructure prematurely would cause irreparable economic and social damage," the manifesto said.

Since gas prices spiked with the Ukraine war, global interest in the nuclear sector is at its highest since the oil crises in the 1970s, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Netherlands and Sweden are planning to build new nuclear plants, while Belgium's new conservative-led government has reversed a two-decade pledge to phase out atomic power.

Italy's cabinet last month opened the door to a return to nuclear power, 25 years after the closure of its last reactors.

- 'Not ready' -

Spain's conservative main opposition People's Party (PP) has added to the pressure.

It has tabled a motion, which has been approved by the parliament, calling on the government to keep the nuclear plants in operation.

During a visit to the Almaraz plant last month, the influential PP head of Madrid's regional government, Isabel Diaz Ayuso, said the measure was necessary to "protect jobs and energy sovereignty" and warned that Spain was "not ready to replace nuclear energy".

The price of electricity in Spain could rise by 23 percent for domestic consumers and by 35 percent for businesses if the country's nuclear reactors are shut down, according to a study by PwC.

Abandoning nuclear power is a "big change" because it means replacing a "constant and predictable energy supply" with "more volatile" sources such as solar and wind, Enric Bartlett, a professor of environmental law at Esade Law School, told AFP.

But it should be possible to close the remaining nuclear plants "without disruption" if Spain has the right amount of installed capacity to generate electricity by other means by 2035, and the "appropriate transport and storage networks", he added.

"There will have to be a significant increase in investment," Bartlett said.

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Saint John energy company says it hit milestone in recycling nuclear waste for energy

CBC
Sat, March 8, 2025


Rory O’Sullivan, chief executive officer of Moltex Energy, says his company plans to use the spent fuel at Lepreau to power its small modular nuclear reactor.
 (Roger Cosman/CBC - image credit)

A Saint John-based nuclear engineering company says it has hit a milestone in its aim to reduce waste coming from nuclear energy by turning that waste into usable energy.

The company — Moltex Clean Energy — is developing a process to extract usable energy from nuclear waste in what it calls the waste to stable-salt process.

This process takes the "high-level waste" from existing nuclear fuel that comes from nuclear generating plants and creates new fuel out of it, said company CEO Rory O'Sullivan on Information Morning Saint John.

The company announced success this week in extracting what O'Sullivan called "long-lived hazardous materials" out of nuclear waste.

"Nuclear waste has been one of the big impediments of nuclear power because of that long radioactivity of the waste," O'Sullivan said.

And while there are existing processes to manage nuclear waste, that waste isn't generally well accepted by the public, "whereas the concept of recycling the waste, and getting more energy out of it, and reducing the amount of long-lived hazardous radioactive products is very appealing," he said.


Moltex expects their reactor near Point Lepreau to be operational by the early 2030s. (Submitted by N.B. Power)

The company is aiming to use the process to power a 300 megawatt small modular reactor at the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station. Moltex expects that SMR to be operational by the early 2030s.

The process — according to information released by Moltex — takes nuclear fuel and separates it. What starts out as a "bundle of fuel," which is 100 per cent "high-level" waste, becomes 98 per cent "intermediate" waste by removing what's called "fuel salt" and other products.

The high-level waste accounts for roughly one per cent of the total waste, according to the company.

This extracted "stable salt" would be used to create energy and the leftover "intermediate waste" has a footprint three times less than the original fuel bundle, Moltex said.

Reduced liability for future generations

Warren Mabee, director of energy and environmental policy at Queen's University, said the technology holds great promise.


"This is one of the most important things I think that the nuclear industry has to figure out — how to deal with waste that comes from these plants," Mabee said.

"Despite the fact that nuclear energy is now more than half a century old, we really haven't cracked that nut. This announcement is just one step closer to hopefully having solved that problem."

O'Sullivan said that while putting nuclear waste in ground repository is safe, it's also a large and costly endeavour and that using parts of the waste for fuel makes more economic sense.

The project is funded by the Federal Strategic Innovation Fund and the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency and has partnerships with national stakeholders, such as reactor supplier Candu Energy.



Great Explorers: Nordenskjold, Larsen, and the Swedish Antarctic Expedition


Andrew Marshall
Fri, March 7, 2025 

In the end, in the dark, it all came down to three things — experience, good judgment in the face of uncertainty, and penguin meat.

It was 1903, their second winter on the White Continent. Swedish geologist Otto Nordenskjold and five men under his command shivered in a hut on Snow Hill island, off the eastern coast of the Antarctica Peninsula. The intention had been to overwinter once on the spit of land, conducting scientific observations while they waited for their ship, the Antarctic, to pick them up. It was slated to be a nine-month layover.

The first winter had been brutal but manageable. Nordenskjold and his men were prepared and had even managed a 645km, month-long mapping expedition along the coastline. They returned just in time for their appointed pickup. While the expedition had been a scientific success, it wasn't without setbacks. Several dogs had died in a blizzard, and fierce winds had toppled an outbuilding and blown away a boat. Doubtless, the men were looking forward to putting the continent behind them.


Otto Nordenskjold (bottom center) and the Snow Hill Island party. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

An empty horizon

But when the appointed moment came, the Antarctic failed to appear. Days turned into weeks, and the ice closed in. Soon, it was apparent. Nordenskjold and his men were in for another dark winter.

Fans of polar exploration might already be familiar with Otto Nordenskjold and the 1901–1904 Swedish Antarctic Expedition. While perhaps not as famous as the top-tier polar racers, Nordenskjold was a major player in his day. If his name has faded slightly over the last century, it might be because he was always more interested in geology than he was in planting a flag.

But the full tale of the Swedish Antarctic Expedition — and the cataclysmically bad luck it endured — is always worth telling. And if you're new to the story, well, you're in luck.

The expedition was Nordenskjold's brainchild. A geologist and geographer, the Swiss explorer wanted to fill in blank spaces on the Antarctic map, particularly the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula. Privately funded, the expedition would leave Nordenskjold in crushing debt for the rest of his life. But first, the men had to make it home.

Norwegian Carl Anton Larsen captained the Antarctic and was in overall command of the expedition. Larsen was an experienced polar explorer — in fact, he was the first person to ski in Antarctica. He was also the first person to discover fossils on the continent.


Carl Anton Larsen. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Iced over


While Nordenskjold's men scouted the Antarctic coastline, Larsen and the rest of the expedition explored the island of South Georgia. After nine months, the Antarctic attempted to sail back to Snow Hill Island to pick up Nordenskjold's men.
But their route was completely iced over. Larsen was too seasoned to be so easily stymied and quickly came up with a backup plan. He deposited three men, led by archaeologist Gunnar Andersson, at Hope Bay on the northernmost tip of the peninsula. The party was to travel southward overland, rescue Nordenskjold and his men, and return for pickup: A 270km round trip.

Andersson's party began its journey south, but when the men reached the portion of the journey that entailed crossing sea ice, they stopped in horror. The ice they'd intended to traverse was gone. They turned around and returned to Hope Bay, but found little hope when they arrived. The Antarctic had already sailed.

Abandon ship


The dauntless Larsen hadn't given up on a Snow Hill rescue, and he steered the Antarctic back into the Weddell Sea. But the treacherous ice closed swiftly, and 45km from land, the ship was fully frozen in. The cataclysmic forces quickly did their work, and Larsen and his remaining men abandoned the ship after six weeks.


The 'Antarctic,' frozen in ice. Photo: Wikimedia Commons


It took two weeks of nerve-wracking ice-floe hopping to reach the safety of Terra Firma. They almost didn't make it — a major storm rolled in a day after they reached Paulet Island in late February 1903. Had they still been on the ice, all 14 of the men might well have perished.

The expedition was now split into three groups: Nordenskjold's party on Snow Hill Island, Andersson's party at Hope Bay, and Larsen's party on Paulet Island.



A map of the Antarctic Peninsula. "6" is Snow Hill Island. "A" is Hope Bay. "10" is Paulet Island. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

None of them had any means of communication. None of them knew the fate of the other parties. All of them were facing an Antarctic stay of unknown duration with dwindling supplies. And as far as the outside world was concerned, the Swedish Antarctic Expedition had simply vanished.


A grim winter


It was a long and difficult winter.

At Hope Bay, Andersson's party built a drafty shelter from stones, covered it with a salvaged tarpaulin, and insulated the floor with penguin skins.

At Paulet Island, Larsen's party built a similar rocky hut but at least had sailcloth to work with. They also were able to use a local population of seals for insulative animal skins.


The remnants of the Paulet Island hut. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

On Snow Hill Island, Nordenskjold's party, though the first to become stranded, had the most supplies and the advantage of a purpose-built shelter.

All three parties mostly lived on penguin meat as the long dark dragged on. Oil rendered down from penguin fat provided their fuel for heat and cooking — a smoky, rancid way to prepare a meal and warm the hands if ever there was one.

As spring arrived, Larsen set his sights on Hope Bay. He divided his party yet again, taking five men and rowing for the bay with the expectation of finding both Andersson's and Nordenskjold's parties awaiting him. It was a dicey five-day row, but they made it.

When Larsen arrived, all he found was an abandoned stone hut. Andersson's party had vanished.

Unlikely reunions

Again, Larsen's level head and experience prevailed. Intuiting that Andersson and his men must have overwintered at Hope Bay and then struck out overland for Snow Hill Island, Larsen and his five men hopped back in their boats and began rowing again.

Larsen had calculated correctly. When spring arrived, Andersson's men had indeed traveled south once again, this time finding enough pack ice to make the crossing to Snow Hill Island.

On Oct. 12, 1903, Nordenskjold looked up to see three shabby, heavily bearded, soot-blackened men shamble out of the white. It was Andersson's party.

At least some of the expedition was back together, but of course, none of the men now huddled on Snow Hill Island knew the Antarctic's fate.


Andersson's party at the Snow Hill Island hut. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

They were also unaware that help was on the way. Larsen, always prepared for the worst, had made one last contingency plan — a plan that had now been activated. When the expedition made port in South America on the way to Antarctica, Larsen asked the Argentinian navy to come and search if the expedition had vanished. This they did, dispatching the Uruguay that spring. For once in nearly two years, something went right. The ice was cooperative. Two weeks after Andersson's party arrived at the hut, the Uruguay appeared at Snow Hill Island.

Overjoyed


The rescued men were overjoyed. With hands shook, pipes lit, and fresh food parceled out, rescuers and rescuees alike then turned to the final piece of the puzzle. Where were Larsen and the Antarctic?

At that moment, and in a bit of timing so unlikely that it would be unbelievable if this story was a piece of fiction, Larsen appeared in the hut. He and his men had successfully rowed and sailed to Snow Hill Island. They'd seen the Uruguay as it approached the site.

With all the Snow Hill men now aboard, the Uruguay set sail for Paulet Island to rescue Larsen's remaining men.

In the end, all but one man from the Swedish Antarctic Expedition survived. One of Larsen's party had died of heart failure during the second winter, an event that might have occurred even without the hardships the expedition endured.

By polar disaster standards, it was an astounding feat. It speaks not only to the physical endurance of the men, but of just how well-stocked the expedition was. Even split unexpectedly into four groups, the expedition had enough leadership, experience, and proper judgment to make good calls consistently.
Aftermath

Despite the many setbacks, the Swedish Antarctic Expedition was widely hailed as a success. The men had charted much previously unexplored territory and returned home with a vast cache of geological and biological samples.

Larsen settled into the (relatively) more comfortable life of an Antarctic whaler, eventually moving his family down to a South Georgian site he'd scouted while overwintering there in 1902. He died in 1925 at the age of 64.