Stronger ties between Putin and Kim could see a 'Cold War-like coalition' form in northeast Asia

South China Morning Post
Thu, September 14, 2023 


Strengthening ties between Russia and North Korea will escalate bloc confrontation in northeast Asia, a reputable Chinese think tank has said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia - his first international trip since the Covid-19 pandemic - is widely expected to see the two Cold War allies bolstering defence and economic cooperation amid sanctions by the West.

With Moscow desperately in need of a resupply of ammunition from Pyongyang due to its prolonged war in Ukraine, a potential arms trade between the two countries could revive a "Cold War-like coalition" which seeks to challenge the alliance between the US, Japan and South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region, according to a Chinese scholar from the Beijing-based China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).

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"The strengthening of bilateral relations between North Korea and Russia will have a profound impact on the regional and international situation," Chen Xiangyang, director of CICIR's Korean Peninsula Program, wrote in an article on the institute's WeChat account.

"Northeast Asia will form a confrontational situation between the 'quasi-alliance' of the United States, Japan and South Korea and that of Russia and North Korea. It cannot be ruled out that hotspot issues may suddenly get out of control," he said.

"It will become more difficult to restart the denuclearisation process on the Korean peninsula and build a security and peace mechanism in northeast Asia."

Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, during the high-profile trip by the North Korean leader to Russia. Photo: AP alt=Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, during the high-profile trip by the North Korean leader to Russia. Photo: AP>

Pyongyang fired two short-range missiles on Wednesday morning, just hours before Kim was received by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome space centre in Russia's Far East. He arrived in the country by train on Tuesday.

Kim told Putin on Wednesday that relations with Russia are a "priority" of North Korea. He said he supports every decision by Russia which is fighting "a sacred fight" for its sovereignty and security.

At the space centre, the pair also inspected assembly and launching facilities of Soyuz-2 and Angara rocket launch vehicles, according to videos released by Russian news agency Tass.

The US has warned Pyongyang not to sell arms to Russia, threatening more sanctions. The South Korean presidential office also called on Moscow to "act responsibly" towards North Korea.

The US, Japan and South Korea have strengthened coordination in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years in response to North Korea's nuclear threats and China's military activities in the South China Sea.

Chen said closer cooperation between Russia and North Korea was a countermeasure due to the "US hegemony" that has increased under President Joe Biden's administration against its former Cold War rivals, which also includes China.

"In the west, the United States took advantage of the Ukraine crisis to resurrect Nato, incited all their member states to engage in military confrontation with Russia, and proposed to weaken or even dismember Russia.

"In the east, the United States is using the North Korean nuclear issue to tighten trilateral security cooperation with Japan and South Korea, trying to overwhelm or even subvert the regimes of China and North Korea," he wrote.

Pyongyang has shown active re-engagement with both Moscow and Beijing after it appeared to reopen its borders, inviting Russian and Chinese delegations to North Korea twice since July for celebration events.

In July, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly proposed to Kim a trilateral naval drill with Moscow and Beijing, according to Yonhap, citing the South Korean intelligence agency. It is also widely speculated that Putin and Kim will discuss this proposal again during Kim's visit this week.

China has yet to respond to the proposal and has remained low-key about Kim's high-profile visit to Russia, saying only it is a matter between Russia and North Korea, with which China maintains good relations.

Zhang Baohui, a Lingnan University professor specialising in Asia-Pacific studies, said China would be cautious about holding joint drills with Russia and North Korea.

"In the near future this prospect is limited as Beijing understands that it could have major impacts on its relations with the US and South Korea. In particular, Beijing does not want to push Seoul further towards Washington and Tokyo," he said.

"However, if a new cold war with the US becomes irreversible and if Seoul further moves toward a trilateral security mechanism with Washington and Tokyo, Beijing could then enhance its own security relations with North Korea."

Chinese Premier Li Qiang held a bilateral meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol on the sidelines of the Asean summit in Jakarta last week, during which Yoon pressed China to do more to curb North Korea's nuclear threats.

In a Chinese foreign ministry response on the matter, spokeswoman Mao Ning said China is committed to peace and stability in the peninsula but stressed that "good relations between China and North Korea and China's influence on North Korea are two different concepts".

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