Africa faces disproportionate burden from climate change and adaptation costs

WMO Press Release
02 September 2024

Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire (WMO) - Africa bears an increasingly heavy burden from climate change and disproportionately high costs for essential climate adaptation, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Key messages
Temperature increases in Africa slightly above the global average
Multi-year droughts continued in northwest Africa in 2023
Extreme floods caused severe losses and damages
African countries face increasing climate change bill
Investment in early warnings will protect lives and economies




On average, African countries are losing 2–5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and many are diverting up to 9 percent of their budgets responding to climate extremes. In sub-Saharan Africa, the cost of adaptation is estimated to be between US$ 30-50 billion annually over the next decade, or 2-3 percent of the region's Gross Domestic Product, says the WMO State of the Climate in Africa 2023 report.

By 2030, it is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people (living on less than US$ 1.90 per day) will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat in Africa, if adequate response measures are not put in place. This will place additional burdens on poverty alleviation efforts and significantly hamper growth, according to figures cited in the report.

African countries need to prioritize increased investment in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and accelerate implementation of the Early Warnings For All initiative to save lives and livelihoods. This will help mitigate risks, build adaptive capacity, boost resilience at local, national, and regional levels and guide sustainable development strategies, says the report.

It focuses on climate change indicators and impacts in 2023 – the world’s hottest year on record to date. It supplements the WMO State of the Global Climate report and is one of a series of WMO regional reports which provide the observational basis to help drive action and support decision-making.

“Over the past 60 years, Africa has observed a warming trend that has become more rapid than the global average. In 2023, the continent experienced deadly heatwaves, heavy rains, floods, tropical cyclones, and prolonged droughts,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

“While many countries in the Horn of Africa, southern and North-West Africa continued to suffer exceptional multi-year drought, other countries experienced extreme precipitation events in 2023 leading to flooding with significant casualties. These extreme events led to devastating impacts on communities, with serious economic implications,” said Celeste Saulo.

“This pattern of extreme weather has continued in 2024. Parts of southern Africa have been gripped by damaging drought. Exceptional seasonal rainfall has caused death and devastation in East African countries, most recently in Sudan and South Sudan. This exacerbates an already desperate humanitarian crisis,” she said.

WMO, the African Union Commission, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology will release the report in collaboration with partners at the 12th Climate Change for Development in Africa (CCDA) Conference in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire on 2 September 2024.

“The State of Climate in Africa 2023 Report highlights the urgent need for investing in meteorological services and early warning systems to help adapt to climate change and build resilience in Africa. As the impacts of climate change continue to manifest globally, the African continent stands at a critical juncture,” said H.E. Ambassador Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko, Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment at the African Union Commission.

“Africa faces disproportionate burdens and risks arising from climate change related weather events and patterns, which cause massive humanitarian crises with detrimental impacts on agriculture, and food security, education, energy, infrastructure, peace, and security, public health, water resources, and overall socio-economic development,” she said.

Key messages

Temperatures: In Africa, 2023 was in the top three warmest years in the 124-year record, depending on the dataset used. The mean temperature was 0.61° C higher than the 1991-2020 average and 1.23° C above the 1961-1990 long-term baseline.

The African continent has been warming at a slightly faster rate than the global average, at about +0.3 °C per decade between 1991 and 2023. The warming has been most rapid in North Africa, around +0.4 °C per decade between 1991 and 2023, compared to +0.2 °C/decade between 1961 and 1990. Southern Africa experienced the lowest warming trend compared to the other sub-regions, around +0.2 °C/decade between 1991 and 2023.

The highest temperature anomalies in 2023 were recorded across northwestern Africa, especially in Morocco, coastal parts of Mauritania and northwest Algeria.

Several countries including Mali, Morocco, United Republic of Tanzania, and Uganda reported their warmest year on record. Extreme heatwaves in July and August affected northern Africa. Tunis, the capital of Tunisia reached a record of 49.0°C and Agadir, Morocco reached a new maximum temperature of 50.4°C.

Temperature difference in °C with respect to the 1991–2020 climatological period for Africa (WMO Regional Association I) from 1900 to 2023, based on six datasets, including observational datasets.

Source: Data are from the following six datasets: Berkeley Earth, ERA5, GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, JRA-55, NOAAGlobalTemp.

Precipitation

Regions with a marked rainfall deficit included the western part of North and Northwestern Africa, the Horn of Africa, portions of Southern Africa including Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and most of Namibia. In addition, Madagascar, central Sudan, northern Ethiopia and Uganda suffered from below-normal precipitation.

West Africa experienced a normal to early onset of its monsoon rainy season Precipitation was notably higher than normal in Angola and coastal areas north of the Gulf of Guinea.

Sea-level rise: The rate of sea-level rise around Africa was close to or slightly higher than the global mean rate of 3.4 mm per year. The largest rate of sea level rise was observed in the Red Sea, reaching 4.1 mm per year.
Extreme climate events

Floods: At least 4 700 confirmed deaths in Libya were attributed to flooding following the Mediterranean cyclone ‘Storm Daniel’ in September, with 8 000 still missing.

Parts of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia experienced widespread and severe flooding, with more than 350 deaths and 2.4 million displaced people during the April-June rainy season.

Record-breaking tropical Cyclone Freddy caused extensive flooding during the final landfall, both in Mozambique and Malawi, as extremely heavy rain fell (up to 672 mm during the storm in Mozambique). Malawi was especially hard hit with at least 679 deaths reported. A further 165 deaths were reported in Mozambique.

Severe flooding with associated landslides affected central Africa in early May on the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, killing at least 574 people.

The White Nile in South Sudan reached record high levels in February. Basic needs such as food, clean water, and healthcare were difficult to access and there was a near total collapse of local livelihoods.

In September and October, approximately 300,000 people were affected by flooding across 10 countries, with Niger, Benin, Ghana and Nigeria most heavily impacted.

Drought: Parts of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Democratic Republic of Congo experienced severe drought in 2023. Zambia faced its worst drought in the last 40 years, affecting eight out of ten provinces and approximately six million people.

Precipitation anomalies in mm for 2023 (left): Blue areas indicate above-average precipitation, and brown areas indicate below-average precipitation. The reference period is 1991–2020. Precipitation quantiles for 2023 (right): Green areas indicate unusually high precipitation totals (light green indicates the highest 20%, and dark green indicates the highest 10% of the observed totals). Brown areas indicate abnormally low precipitation totals (light brown indicates the lowest 20%, and dark brown indicates the lowest 10% of the observed totals). The reference period is 1991–2020.
Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Germany

Climate-related impacts to agriculture and food security

Climate extremes including floods and droughts had a major impact on food security.

North Africa’s cereal production in 2023 was about 10 percent below the five‑year average estimated at 33 million tons in 2023, similar to the previous year’s already drought‑stricken harvest. Tunisia was worst hit.

Erratic rainfall and the general situation of insecurity kept cereal production at below-average levels in northern parts of the subregion, including Sudan, South Sudan, the Karamoja region in Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and central and western Kenya. In Sudan, seasonal rains were below average and temporally erratic, with prolonged dry spells. The production of sorghum and millet was forecast to decrease by about 25% and 50%, respectively, compared to 2022.

Investment in adaptation and resilience

Climate-resilient development in Africa requires investments in hydrometeorological infrastructure and early warning systems to prepare for escalating high-impact hazardous events. Investments in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Africa are needed to enhance data collection and improve forecasting capabilities in order to strengthen the ability of these institutions to issue early warnings and advisories for extreme events. There is a particular need to invest in cutting-edge technologies and systems to enhance the accuracy and lead time of weather, climate, and hydrological forecasts.

Hazards of greatest concern for the African region. This graph was generated by WMO using the NDCs of 53 countries in Africa based on the active NDCs submitted as of June 2024.

In sub-Saharan Africa, adaptation costs are estimated at US$ 30–50 billion (2–3% of regional gross domestic product (GDP)) each year over the next decade.
Early Warnings for All

An ambitious Early Warnings for All Action Plan for Africa was launched in September 2023. The primary objective is to make sure that timely and accurate information about natural hazards and impending disasters reaches all segments of African society, particularly the most vulnerable. This answers the call of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres that every person worldwide must be protected by early warning systems by 2027. A number of African countries have been identified for priority action in the global initiative.

Between 1970 and 2021, Africa accounted for 35% of weather, climate, and water-related fatalities. Yet only 40% of the African population has access to early warning systems – the lowest rate of any region of the world. This new Early Warnings for All Action Plan for Africa seeks to change that.