Everlasting Collapse: 70 Years’ Predictions of China’s Imminent Doom

From the imaginary Great Famine of 1959 to the Property Apocalypse of 2025 – the annual ritual of getting China catastrophically wrong, year after year after year.

by Godfree Roberts / December 12th, 2025

From 1980-2008, EU GDP grew 2.7%, the US 3%, and China 9% . Since then, the EU has averaged 1.5%, the US 1.8% and China 7%. In other words, China’s economy has grown 300% faster than Western countries’ and, as they slip out of the top bracket of high income countries, China is entering it.

1990. China’s economy has come to a halt. The Economist

1996. China’s economy will face a hard landing. The Economist

1998. China’s economy’s dangerous period of sluggish growth. The Economist

1999. Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Bank of Canada

2000. China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. Chicago Tribune

2001. A hard landing in China. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas

2002. China Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. Westchester University

2003. Banking crisis imperils China. New York Times

2004. The great fall of China? The Economist

2005. The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. Nouriel Roubini

2006. Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? International Economy

2007. Can China avoid a hard landing? TIME

2008. Hard Landing In China? Forbes

2009. China’s hard landing. China must find a way to recover. Fortune

2010: Hard landing coming in China. Nouriel Roubini

2011: Chinese Hard Landing Closer Than You Think. Business Insider

2012: Economic News from China: Hard Landing. American Interest

2013: A Hard Landing In China. Zero Hedge

2014. A hard landing in China. CNBC

2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Forbes

2016. Hard landing looms for China. The Economist

2017. Is China’s Economy Going To Crash? National Interest

2018. China’s Coming Financial Meltdown. The Daily Reckoning.

2019 China’s Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? BBC2020. Coronavirus Could End China’s Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak. NY Times

2021 Chinese economy risks deeper slowdown than markets realize. Bloomberg

2022. China Surprise Data Could Spell R-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n. Bloomberg.

2023. No word should be off-limits to describe China’s faltering economy. Bloomberg

2024. China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US …Bloomberg

Reading

The Pressure, Potential and Pertinacity of the Chinese Economy, Justin Yifu Lin.

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Godfree Roberts wrote Why China Leads the World: Talent at the Top, Data in the Middle, Democracy at the Bottom. He also publishes the excellent newsletter, Here Comes China -- available by subscription. Read other articles by Godfree.