Offshore wind farms could alter precipitation patterns
Hereon researchers investigate the potential climate impacts of expanding wind energy
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Wind turbines could have climate impacts. Photo: Hereon/Sabine Billerbeck
view moreCredit: Hereon/Sabine Billerbeck
Researchers at Hereon’s Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modeling used the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM to simulate various technical offshore wind energy expansion scenarios. The simulations were based on weather data covering the period from 2008 to 2017. By analyzing an entire decade, the researchers were able to derive mean atmospheric dynamics across a wide range of weather conditions while reducing the influence of year-to-year variability. This approach allows potential long-term effects to be identified more robustly. The simulations included both existing and potential future offshore wind farm areas in the North Sea and Baltic Sea.
The researchers also considered the effects of wind turbines on wind speed, atmospheric mixing, and moisture transport. Their aim was to gain a better understanding of the fundamental atmospheric processes that could be triggered by large offshore wind farm clusters. “Our work helps ensure that the further expansion of offshore wind energy in Europe can be aligned with the requirements of climate protection, environmental protection, and coastal management,” says Dr Naveed Akhtar, lead author of the study.
A deliberately extreme expansion scenario
The scenario simulated in the study represents a purely technical expansion pathway that exceeds the European Union’s current offshore wind deployment targets. It includes all designated areas in the North Sea and Baltic Sea that have been identified for potential offshore wind energy development. For these areas, the researchers assumed maximum deployment, resulting in an installed capacity that would substantially exceed the currently discussed target of 300 GW by 2050.
The researchers deliberately chose this scenario to make potential climate effects clearly detectable and to estimate their magnitude. The rationale is that considerable uncertainty remains regarding which areas will ultimately be developed and how political targets may evolve in the future.
Precipitation patterns change
The results show that a large-scale expansion of offshore wind energy could lead to increased precipitation over offshore wind farm areas, while precipitation in adjacent coastal regions could decrease. The underlying mechanism is that wind turbines extract part of the wind’s kinetic energy and simultaneously increase atmospheric turbulence. Downstream of the turbines, strong variations in air movement enhance the exchange between different layers of the atmosphere. As a result, moist air can rise, cool, and condense, leading to cloud formation and precipitation over the wind farms.
At the same time, the transport of moisture toward the coast is altered. If air masses release a greater share of their moisture as precipitation over offshore wind farm areas, less moisture remains available for precipitation in coastal regions. For parts of Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, the simulations indicate potential reductions in coastal precipitation of up to 15 percent.
Long-term weather statistics rather than individual weather events
These findings can support sustainable maritime spatial planning and strengthen cross-border cooperation in the North Sea and Baltic Sea region. Previous studies by Hereon have shown that factors such as the size, layout, and spacing of wind turbines can have a significant influence on atmospheric effects.
Future research should investigate a range of expansion scenarios and analyze how parameters such as turbine density, wind farm size, and spatial distribution affect the regional climate. In addition, the researchers plan to further explore the impacts of offshore wind farms on the ocean and marine ecosystems.
Cutting-edge research for a changing world
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon’s scientific research aims at preserving a world worth living in. To this end, around 1000 employees generate knowledge and research new technologies for greater resilience and sustainability - for the benefit of the climate, the coast and people. The path from idea to innovation leads through a continuous interplay between experimental studies, modeling and AI to digital twins that map the diverse parameters of climate and coast or human biology in the computer. This is an interdisciplinary approach that spans from the fundamental scientific understanding of complex systems to scenarios and practical applications. As an active member of national and international research networks and the Helmholtz Association, Hereon supports politics, business and society in shaping a sustainable future by transferring the expertise it has gained.
Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Method of Research
Computational simulation/modeling
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Projected impacts of future offshore wind farms on coastal precipitation over the Northwest European shelf
Article Publication Date
12-Aug-2026
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