UK universities urged to end drugs zero tolerance and focus on harm reduction

Sally Weale Education correspondent

THE GUARDIAN

Mon, 1 July 2024


Jeni Larmour, 18, who died on her first day at Newcastle University in 2020, after consuming a lethal combination of alcohol and ketamine

UK universities are being urged to ditch a zero-tolerance approach to drug use and focus instead on public health and harm reduction, with drug testing and non-judgmental support for students seeking help.

The warning came as new research found students are less likely to use drugs than those of the same age group in the general population. Of the minority that do, more than two out of five would like to reduce their use.

Experts remain concerned that a zero-tolerance approach still deployed on some campuses, including fines, suspensions and expulsions, does little to reduce drug use and could deter students from coming forward for help.

Almost one in five (18%) out of 4,000 students who took part in a poll for Universities UK (UUK) – the organisation that represents 142 higher education providers – told researchers they had used drugs in the past, while one in eight (12%) had used drugs in the past year.

Of those who had ever taken drugs, the most commonly used in the past year were cannabis (53%), cocaine (8%), prescription drugs (7%), ketamine (6%) and ecstasy (4%).

Among non-students, almost 18% of 16- to 24-year-olds in England and Wales reported drug use in the year up to March 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics, while in Scotland, 23.5% of the same age group had used drugs in the year prior to being surveyed.

According to UUK, only one in five students who have used drugs in the past 12 months have asked for support from their institution. Of those students who did seek support, nearly half (46%) said their university’s drug policy was a barrier, while more than a third (37%) feared the consequences of coming forward.

Jeni Larmour, 18, of Newtownhamilton in Northern Ireland, died in October 2020 on her first day at Newcastle University after consuming a lethal combination of alcohol and ketamine given to her “by another”, according to a coroner.

Her mother, Sandra Larmour, welcomed the report and said her own views on drug policy had changed. Where once she might have backed zero tolerance, she now favours educating and supporting students, though she said universities should never condone drug use.

“If you tell a bunch of teenagers ‘don’t do something’, you’re on a hiding to nothing. Anybody that’s got children knows that – they’re going to go out and do it,” Larmour said.

“But if you’re doing something in an open and informed manner, that can only help. If you’ve got people there with insight, knowledge and professional experience that can give them guidance on it, and they feel they can come forward, that’s a very positive step.”

The SafeCourse charity, which was set up to promote harm reduction policies on UK campuses, welcomed UUK’s new framework for action. Its founder, Hilton Mervis, whose son Daniel died of an accidental overdose, said a zero-tolerance approach may have discouraged him from seeking help because of fear of expulsion.

“Drugs left a hole in my family’s life because Daniel was failed by zero-tolerance policies,” he said, adding that the college now has a “clear harm reduction policy which puts the safety and wellbeing of their students first.

“Yet many universities continue to declare zero tolerance on drugs. In practice, this means zero action. This puts students at risk. The time has come for universities to adopt active, student-led harm reduction approaches.”

The UUK report, Enabling student health and success: tackling supply and demand for drugs and improving harm reduction, published on Tuesday, also calls on universities to promote and inform students of drug checking services. “Students often do not know the contents and strength of illicit drugs at the point of purchase,” it says.

“The consequences of this can be fatal. Drug checking provides an independent service which encourages students to have any substances of concern tested by chemists, and the results discussed during a consultation with a health professional.”

It also suggests a sliding scale of warnings of increasing severity for repeat incidents over an agreed timeframe to ensure a university is not perceived as permissive about the use of drugs.

Larmour urged parents whose children are preparing to go off to university in the autumn to talk to their child. “Make sure that you’re open and honest with them.” To youngsters about to leave home, she said: “Be aware of your surroundings. Be aware of who your friends are. Think before you do anything.

“I miss Jeni every day of my life. I think about her all the time. Everything I do, I do it for one reason. That’s to keep her name alive, to keep her name on people’s lips, to keep her memory alive.”

CAPITAL STRIKE

Energy giant boss warns investing in Britain is 'uneconomical' as they plan to move expansion abroad to the US and Denmark

By JESSICA CLARK

PUBLISHED: 1 July 2024 


An energy boss has warned that his firm will prioritise expansion in the US and Denmark as Britain's political parties 'put pain' into the oil and gas industry.

David Bucknall, chief executive of Ineos Energy, said investing in the UK could become 'uneconomic' under Labour's tax plans.

His comments came ahead of the election where energy policy has become a key battleground.
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Mr Bucknall, who runs the energy arm of Sir Jim Ratcliffe's petrochemicals group, said there was greater stability overseas.

His warning comes days after the head of Serica Energy, one of the UK's top independent oil and gas producers, said Britain was 'second only to a war zone' for planning future investment.

Labour has pledged to raise the windfall tax on energy firm profits from 75 per cent to 78 per cent and axe investment allowances.


David Bucknall (pictured), chief executive of Ineos Energy, said investing in the UK could become 'uneconomic' under Labour's tax plans

Mr Bucknall, who runs the energy arm of Sir Jim Ratcliffe 's petrochemicals group, said there was greater stability overseas. Pictured: An offshore oil platform in the North sea

Sir Keir Starmer's party has also said it will not issue new licences for exploration and drilling in the North Sea.

Hundreds of businesses led by the Unite union signed an open letter opposing the policy amid concerns about job losses.

Experts play down fears of further fuel bill hikes as Britain prepares to import a record amount of energy from Europe 

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak introduced the energy profits levy when he was chancellor in 2022, and the tax has since been increased and extended.

Mr Bucknall said UK political parties have attempted to outdo 'each other in how much pain you can put into the industry'.

He added: 'If you take away investment allowances and pile on windfall taxes, it's very easy to make things uneconomic'.

His firm will push ahead with expansion in America and Denmark, where it is 'much easier to invest', he said.

Last year Ineos Energy entered the US market for the first time after buying some of Chesapeake Energy's assets in Texas for around £1billion.

Despite political uncertainty in the States ahead of the presidential election in November, Mr Bucknall said the country's energy policy was more stable.

Sir Keir Starmer's party has also said it will not issue new licences for exploration and drilling in the North Sea

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak introduced the energy profits levy when he was chancellor in 2022, and the tax has since been increased and extended

There has not been 'very much change at the operational level in the US, regardless of who the president is', he told The Times.

Last week Ineos Energy was awarded the first onshore carbon capture and storage licence in Denmark.

In the UK, however, the company will focus on developing existing licences rather than launching new projects.

The move comes after David Latin, chairman of Serica Energy, said it was looking abroad for 'acquisition opportunities' due to the windfall levy. Such policies 'are going to drive oil and gas investment overseas, and it will take with it jobs, tax revenues and energy security', he added.

He has previously accused politicians of a 'race to the bottom' to extract more money short-term, despite risking long-term damage to production and making Britain more dependent on imports.

Election backlash looms for UK Indian diaspora’s ex-poster boy Rishi Sunak

Story by Biman Mukherji • 

 South China Morning Post

July 1,2024

Dissatisfaction with rising living costs and economic stagnation could see the PM lose his seat, as Indian diaspora joins anti-Tory wave

Rishi Sunak, once a poster boy for Britain's Indian diaspora, now faces their growing dissatisfaction amid rising living costs and economic stagnation - further hurting his prospects in the country's general election on Thursday.

The opposition Labour Party has been more than 20 points ahead in surveys for over 18 months as Britons tire of Conservative Party rule. Polls last month forecast that Sunak could even lose his own seat in the general election.

The Indian diaspora makes up about 2.5 per cent of Britain's population, meaning their disenchantment with Sunak and his Tories could prove significant.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

"A lot of pain points are coming out in the open and the larger diaspora is going with the sentiment of an anti-Tory wave. People are saying that maybe it's time to bring a new government," said Ashwin Krishnaswamy, a UK-based technology investor and a trustee of the Bridge India charity.



A man makes his way through a food aisle in a supermarket in west London last month. Rising living costs have added to anti-Conservative sentiment. Photo: AFP© Provided by South China Morning Post

Rising living costs and disappointing economic growth have contributed to this perception, said Krishnaswamy, adding that the Conservatives are "getting squeezed from both sides because they have not increased wealth creation".

The downbeat sentiment contributed to a drubbing for Sunak's Conservatives in local elections held in May. The Tories lost control of 10 councils and more than 470 council seats, besides ceding 10 police and crime commissioners to Labour.

Since announcing snap elections about a month ago, Sunak's election campaign, which has heavily focused on promises to fix the economy and public services such as the National Health Service (NHS), has not gained much traction.

"Sunak's campaign has been about looking to the future. But in the past you [Conservative Party] have had so many leadership changes, [people are thinking] what is the guarantee that you will remain," said Priyajit Debsarkar, a London-based Indian author.

Sunak, the first British Asian prime minister, has served in the position and as leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. He previously held two cabinet positions under Boris Johnson from 2020 to 2022.

"The diaspora had lots to celebrate when Rishi took charge of 10 Downing Street. The euphoria has fizzled out due to a failure to keep fundamental promises like tackling the cost of living and the National Health Service crisis," Debsarkar said.

Since late 2021, prices for many essential goods in Britain have been increasing faster than household incomes, resulting in a fall in real incomes. The phenomenon has been termed a cost-of-living crisis.



Sunak meets the public at an event in London on Saturday. 

Photo: Pool via AP© Provided by South China Morning Post

Economic riddle

Born to parents of Indian descent who immigrated to Britain from East Africa in the 1960s, Sunak earned a Master of Business Administration degree from Stanford University and worked for Goldman Sachs and later as a partner at hedge fund firms the Children's Investment Fund and Theleme Partners.

He was elected to the House of Commons for Richmond in North Yorkshire at the 2015 general election, and supported the Brexit campaign in the country's 2016 European Union membership referendum.

Sunak was expected to help fix Britain's economic woes since the nation's withdrawal from the EU in January 2020. But gross domestic product was estimated to have increased by only 0.1 per cent last year, following growth of 4.3 per cent in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Public sentiment has also soured over the state of facilities such as health services, which have suffered from chronic under-investment, spurring frequent protests by doctors over pay disputes since last year.

"The NHS is a big disaster. There is a huge pay disparity in the NHS between different sections of doctors," Krishnaswamy said, on the reasons for the loss of confidence.

Labour traditionally enjoyed a stronger support base among British Indians, but it has weakened over the years with a new breed of richer and well-educated diaspora identifying more with the Conservatives, a trend which was only expected to accelerate under Sunak.

"However, a lot of water has now flowed between the Thames and the English Channel, so even the Indian diaspora has had second thoughts," Debsarkar said.



Labour leader Keir Starmer at a rally in central London on Saturday, during campaigning for the July 4 general election.

 Photo: PA via AP© Provided by South China Morning Post

Labour leader Keir Starmer has been able to project the party as a stable government-in-waiting, which has resonated with voters struggling with rising costs of living.

"House rents are 100 per cent higher than six to seven years back," said Supriyo Chaudhuri, CEO of e1133 Ltd, a firm specialising in higher education, noting that it was tough for new immigrants to Britain to buy a house. "If you are a new immigrant, you can't [afford to] buy a house."


Chaudhuri, who has been living in the UK for a decade, said Sunak "does not talk about public services and the cost of living crisis", nor had he succeeded in creating business dynamism.

If Labour toppled the Conservatives, they too "will need to find a new play book" to resolve the issues, he said.

Cedomir Nestorovic, a professor of geopolitics at the ESSEC Business School Asia-Pacific in Singapore, said the key to enticing voters would be solving the economic riddle.

Companies needed to be provided with opportunities to create a ripple effect of jobs and salaries, which had not come through strongly under Sunak, he said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), the leading news media reporting on China and Asia.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trevor Phillips Destroys Nigel Farage With One Devastating Question

Kevin Schofield

HUFFPOST
Sun, 30 June 2024

Nigel Farage clashed with Sky News presenter Trevor Phillips after he was asked why Reform UK attracts “racists, homophobes and anti-Semites”.

The pair faced off against each other after the party was forced to ditch three candidates accused of making offensive statements.

Farage distanced himself from Edward Oakenfull, Robert Lomas and Leslie Lilley during a brutal grilling on the BBC’s Question Time on Friday night.

Reform UK has also gone to war with Channel 4 after it broadcast secretly recorded footage showing one of the party’s canvassers, Andrew Parker, advocating shooting people arriving in the UK on small boats across the Channel.

Farage has insisted it was a “set-up” because Parker is an actor - claims denied by the broadcaster.

On Sunday Morning With Trevor Philips, the presenter asked him: “Do you ever ask yourself this question, in the words of the immortal Mrs Merton, what was it about you, Nigel Farage, that first attracted these racists and homophobes and anti-Semites to your party?”

Farage, who took over as Reform UK leader earlier this month, replied: “The candidates that we’re kicking out came when I wasn’t there, that’s the first point to make.”

But Philips hit back: “Come on, Reform is your party, you own it, they knew it’s your party. So answer my question, what is it about you that attracted them?”

Farage said: “Ironically, destroying the BNP, means people who are minded that way don’t any longer have a home to go to, and some will gravitate in our direction. When we find out who they are they’ll be gone.”

The presenter then asked: “Why do you think that is? Why do they think that you are the person that’s going to give them a home?”

But Farage pointed out that at a Reform UK election rally in Birmingham later today, the “star of the show” will be Zia Yusuf, who he described as “a practicing Muslim who is going to say things about the growth of Islamic extremism”.

He added: “I can assure you that anybody who has a racist point of view, I don’t want to know.”

Bot-like accounts spreading 'hate' during UK election: NGO

AFP
Mon, 1 July 2024 


Global Witness found that 10 suspected bot profiles on X shared 'disinformation and hate' before the UK general election (LOIC VENANCE)


Bot-like social media accounts have spread "disinformation and hate" in tens of thousands of posts viewed an estimated 150 million times during the UK general election campaign, a watchdog investigation revealed Tuesday.

Global Witness found 10 suspected bot profiles on X (formerly Twitter) have shared more than 60,000 messages containing conspiracy theories and violent hate speech, including Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, homophobia and transphobia, before Thursday's vote.

The NGO assessed that the accounts, which also promoted praise for Russian President Vladimir Putin, may have had "an oversize influence" given their prolific output.

Bot profiles are run by computers but have been programmed to look like human-run accounts.

The findings follow warnings that the integrity of key elections around the world this year could be threatened by rapid advancements in cyber-tech, particularly AI, and increasing friction between major nations.

UK Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden warned on Sunday that hostile actors such as Russia were seeking to influence the country's democratic process after reports emerged of Facebook pages spreading identical pro-Kremlin talking points.

Ava Lee, campaign leader at Global Witness, urged X and other social media companies to "clean up their platforms and put our democracies before profit".

"Political discussion online is often toxic -- we all know that. But when we go on social media, we believe we're seeing what real people think," she said.

"When that's not true, when the conversation may have been influenced by someone who has paid for bots to spread division or to get a particular party into power, our democracy is in jeopardy."

- Overtly party political -

Global Witness researchers identified the sample of suspected bot accounts by searching for posts and hashtags on climate change and migration -- two hot button issues often subject to disinformation.

The team then identified and tracked at least 10 profiles pumping out scores or hundreds of posts daily on these issues in the weeks after the UK election date announcement on May 22.

Eight were overtly party political, clearly aligning themselves for or against a particular party by using its logos as their profile picture or regularly re-posting its content or hashtags, according to the NGO.

It did not find evidence that any UK party was paying for, using or promoting the bots as part of their campaigns.

The content shared by the suspect accounts was overwhelmingly extreme, Global Witness said.

"Some spread anti-Semitism and transphobia. Some state that climate change is a 'hoax', that vaccines have created a 'genocide'," it added.

One of the 10 profiles was recently deleted, but the other nine remained active as Global Witness released its findings.

It urged X -- known as Twitter until US billionaire Elon Musk bought the platform in 2022 and rebranded it the following year -- to investigate the accounts, which likely violate its own policies.

Global Witness also demanded X invest more in "protecting our democratic debate from manipulation".

X did not respond to requests for comment.

jj/phz/rlp

‘Bot-like’ X accounts having ‘oversized influence’ on General Election – study

A new investigation looked at 10 accounts that have shared more than 60,000 posts on the social media site in the last few weeks.


A NEW INVESTIGATION LOOKED AT 10 ‘BOT-LIKE’ ACCOUNTS THAT HAVE SHARED MORE THAN 60,000 POSTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA SITE X SINCE THE GENERAL ELECTION WAS CALLED

 (DOMINIC LIPINSKI/PA)
PA WIR

A new study has found that posts from 10 “bot-like” X accounts spreading disinformation and hate have been viewed more than 150 million times ahead of the UK General Election.

The accounts in question have shared more than 60,000 posts on social media platform X, formerly Twitter, since May 22, with those posts estimated to have been seen 150 million times, an investigation by non-governmental organisation (NGO) Global Witness found.

Many of the posts from these 10 prolific accounts contain “extreme and violent” hate speech, disinformation, conspiracy theories and praise Russian President Vladimir Putin, the organisation said.

It found that posts amplified by these bot-like accounts have spread Islamophobia, antisemitism, homophobia and transphobia, state that climate change is a “hoax”, that vaccines have created a “genocide”, and that Mr Putin is “the greatest president ever”.

The investigation found the bot-like accounts by searching among hashtags on migration and climate change covering a wide spectrum of views, from #welcomerefugees to #migration and #stoptheboats.

Global Witness, an international NGO that focuses on the environment and human rights, said it considered accounts were “bot-like” if they had three or more “red flags”.

These included posting prolifically, having handles that end in a long string of numbers, and not having a profile picture that purports to be of the person running the account.

The 10 accounts identified by Global Witness have all posted frequently, with all 10 of them having days when they have shared more than 200 posts.

Four of the accounts have had days when they have shared more than 500 posts, and together they have spread some 60,000 posts since the election was called.

The study said: “The number of bot-like accounts we uncovered is also limited, but they have an extremely oversized influence given how prolifically they post and the number of people who are seeing their content.”

Nine of the bot-like accounts focus on UK politics and one focuses on US politics and the UK royal family but was uncovered through searches of accounts using UK-related hashtags, Global Witness said.

Two of the three accounts investigated by the NGO that have posted #stoptheboats encourage people to vote for Reform UK and all of the five accounts using the hashtag #labourlosing promoted Reform UK.

One of the 10 accounts had MBGA (Make Britain Great Again) alongside MAGA (Make America Great Again) and anti-migrant hashtags in their bio – it reposts anti-migrant, transphobic and far-right content and supports Reform UK.

On occasion it has posted nearly 600 tweets in a day and has increased the amount it posts since the election was called by more than 50%.

Another account described itself in its bio as being pro-Palestine, the environment and the NHS, is focused on stopping votes for the Conservative Party and regularly posts anti-Nigel Farage memes.

There is no evidence that any UK political party is paying for, using or promoting bots as part of their election campaigns, Global Witness said.

Ava Lee, campaign leader at Global Witness, said: “Political discussion online is often toxic – we all know that. But when we go on social media, we believe we’re seeing what real people think.

“While we might not agree with it, we trust that what we see are genuine views held by other voters.

“When that’s not true, when the conversation may have been influenced by someone who has paid for bots to spread division or to get a particular party into power, our democracy is in jeopardy.

“The UK is going to the polls in under a week. The US in four months. Half the world’s population this year. X, and all social media companies, need to clean up their platforms and put our democracies before profit.”

X did not respond to Global Witness or PA news agency attempts to obtain a comment on the findings.

Rishi Sunak Left Squirming As He's Confronted With Ordinary People's Lives In Tory Britain

Kevin Schofield

HUFFPOST
Sun, 30 June 2024 



Rishi Sunak was confronted by what ordinary people think. BBC

Rishi Sunak was left squirming as he was confronted with ordinary people’s experiences of living in Tory Britain.

The prime minister was forced to read comments from viewers as he appeared on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme this morning.

He had earlier insisted that Britain was a “better” place now than it was when the Conservatives came to power in 2010.

But moments later, Sunak had to look on as the viewers’ comments were projected onto a screen behind him.

One, called Julian, said: “Why oh why isn’t anything working in this country? It grieves me sorely to see the state that this country has degenerated into.”

A viewer's comment on the state of the country. BBC

A second viewer, called Michael, said: “Why does my son’s school not have enough money for glue sticks? Why do I have potholes on almost every road I drive on? Why can’t I get a doctor’s appointment? Why are beaches closed when it rains and rivers polluted beyond measure?”

The views of another ordinary voter. BBC

Meanwhile, viewer Sheila said: “Our biggest worry is not about tax, it’s about having the basics.”

Viewer Sheila said she did not even have "the basics". BBC

Kuenssberg asked the PM: “Can you say to our viewers this morning that you can do anything about how they feel? Do you understand it?”

In response, he said: “Yes, of course I do. Of course it’s been very difficult. When inflation rises to the highest level we’ve seen in decades, when energy bills double because of a war in Ukraine, of course that has an impact on Sheila and everyone else.

“And that’s why I’m working so hard to deliver people financial security, and I do think it’s about tax because people are working very, very hard and I want them to be able to keep more of their money so that they can spend that on their families in the way that they want.”

Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth said: “It’s excruciating to watch Rishi Sunak just gloss over the concerns of ordinary working people.

“Rishi Sunak has no remorse for his record: prices are up in the shops, NHS waiting lists have rocketed, and mortgages have soared. He just doesn’t understand what the Conservatives have inflicted on voters over the past 14 years.”

Conservative student group at UK university apologizes for singing, dancing to Nazi song

Students were filmed singing and dancing to 'Erika,' a song composed in 1938 by Herms Niel - a Nazi Sturmabteilung trooper leader.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

JULY 2, 2024 

University of Warwick Students' Union(photo credit: Ben Firshman/Wikimedia Commons)


The University of Warwick Conservative Association (UWCA) issued an apology after recordings surfaced of student members singing and dancing to the song Erika, a Nazi anthem, at the group’s annual black-tie dinner last month, British media reported on Monday.

Erika was an anthem used by German Nazi armed forces during World War II, it had been composed in 1938 by Herms Niel - a Nazi Sturmabteilung trooper leader.

Use of the song was criticized by the Union of Jewish Students (UJS), who charged that the students involved in the incident had engaged in “blatant and unhinged support” for Nazism.

Condemning the use of the song

“Glorification of the Nazis has no place in our society, especially on campus… We expect swift and decisive action from the University of Warwick and the Conservative Party,” UJS added in a public statement.

The UWCA said it “condemned the behavior exhibited during this video and apologizes for any offence that has been caused.”

AN IDEOLOGICAL battle is also being waged. Pictured: Nazi leader Adolf Hitler addresses the Reichstag, 1941. (credit: Keystone/Getty Images)

It added: “The song Erika was playing for a brief period. Once we became aware of the song being played and what it represents, an exec member spoke to the DJ, and it was immediately turned off.

“We have subsequently found that the song was requested by a lone member directly to the DJ. We stress that it was not included in the preplanned music selection handed to the DJ.”

Footage of the event revealed, according to Sky News, that several members had been dancing and singing to the song, with the video ended after a student could be heard stating "Don't film!"

A spokesperson for Warwick University told Jewish News “We have been made aware of this video and the allegations surrounding it, which are extremely troubling.

“Behaviour like this is reprehensible and we are disappointed to see our students involved.

“The university is reviewing the material disclosed to us via our reporting service and has notified the Student’s Union. We have requested a meeting with the Jewish Society to assist with our review.”

The similarities and differences between Starmer's support now and Blair's 1997 landslide

From class and education to your health and where you live, people in different groups fall into different categories in terms of how they tend to vote. A Labour victory in 2024 would be built on different foundations than Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.


By Prof Will Jennings, Sky News elections analyst, and Dr Jamie Furlong, University of Westminster
Tuesday 2 July 2024 




In December 2019, Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a historic victory that redrew the map of British politics – winning seats in the north of England and midlands that had been held by Labour for generations.

If the polls are to be believed, Keir Starmer's Labour is on the cusp of inflicting a heavy defeat on Rishi Sunak's Conservatives.

Labour looks likely to regain many seats lost in post-industrial parts of northern England and reach deep into middle-class Conservative heartlands - in some ways resembling the landslide won by Tony Blair.

While many of the seats won in 1997 might fall into Labour's hands once again, the underlying geography of support may look a little different.

Through analysis of general elections between 1979 and 2019, we can identify the sorts of places that have tended to vote for the Labour and Conservative parties.

We can also use predictions from YouGov's recent MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) poll for Sky News to understand how the result might look on 4 July.

The continued decline of class voting

Let's first look at the changing relationship between the number of people employed in working class jobs in a constituency and voting for Labour and the Conservatives.

Back in 1979, the higher the proportion of people in manual and semi-skilled jobs in a constituency, the bigger Labour's vote and the lower the Conservative vote.

In 1997 this was still true, though the relationship was weaker. By 2019, manufacturing had become positively associated with Conservative support - with the party tending to secure a higher vote in areas with larger workforces in blue collar occupations.

While the MRP predictions suggest there may be a slight reversal of this trend in the 2024 election, it is unlikely to return to the clear pattern of class voting observed in 1997.

The realignment of the educational divide

In 1979 and to some extent in 1997, Labour's vote was higher in areas with fewer university graduates. Places with more degree holders, in contrast, tended to vote more heavily for the Conservatives - as the party of the professional middle classes.

Over this 40-year period there has been a steady reversal of the pattern of voting associated with education. As such, Labour has gradually become stronger in areas with more people who have been to university, while the Conservatives have tended to do worse.

Now the difference between the parties is not statistically significant.


Labour's support is robust in economically left behind areas

According to selected other measures, the geography of Labour's vote has changed little over four decades.

The level of socio-economic deprivation - measured here with the number of people reporting being in poor health - in a constituency is persistently a strong positive predictor of Labour support.

The projected result for 2024 does not point to a significant reversal of this pattern, though it does seem that the link between the relationship is perhaps weakening slightly.

Compared to those seats won by Tony Blair in 1997, the distribution of Labour's vote on 4 July is likely to be higher in places with more graduates and lower in areas with a more working-class electorate. But the party is likely to do similarly as well in areas of high socio-economic deprivation.

New heartlands?

What might the electoral map look like after the dust settles on the morning of 5 July?

One way of comparing the geography of support for each party in 1997 and 2024 is to look at the clusters of constituencies where the parties do better or worse than we might expect - based on their socioeconomic characteristics.

We focus here on England and Wales as the rise of the SNP has created a very different electoral map in Scotland.

In the maps, constituencies are shaded red where Labour do better than expected, and shaded [dark] blue where the party's vote is below expectations.

The map for 1997 shows that in that election Labour did better, relative to expectations, in many of the coalfields of South Yorkshire - typically former industrial towns and villages with older, white, predominantly working-class populations.

By 2024, this cluster of constituencies where Labour does better than expected had disappeared.

Instead, Labour's over-performance has extended further across Merseyside into parts of Cheshire and Derbyshire, and most significantly across large swathes of the rural far north of England.

Many of these constituencies are relatively well-to-do compared to former coal-mining areas.

This is also consistent with suggestions that there could be unlikely gains for Labour in 2024 in places such as Hexham in Northumberland or Tatton in Cheshire.

What does this mean for the future?

If Labour are able to win back large swathes of the seats in the North and the Midlands on Thursday, there will likely be much debate over whether the party has rebuilt the so-called Red Wall.

On the surface, regaining seats in places like Bishop Auckland, Stoke-on-Trent, Grimsby, Bolsover, and the Rother Valley will certainly re-establish the party as a dominant force across the entire region.

However, the Red Wall itself may have a very different profile to that held by the party in 1997.

Back then, some of Labour's biggest majorities were found in former coal-mining and industrial towns. Tony Blair himself held a 53-point vote majority in Sedgefield. In 2024, these are likely to be narrower gains with more substantial majorities won by Labour in the bigger cities of the North of England.

At the same time, the party's support will likely be consolidated in areas with high numbers of younger graduates and professionals - the sorts of demographic that traditionally (back in 1979) voted Conservative.

The redrawing of the electoral map of England and Wales is far from finished.

"The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales" by Jamie Furlong and Will Jennings is published by Oxford University Press.

Russian attack submarines have conducted missions around the Irish Sea twice since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, three people familiar with the matter said, an unprecedented move by the Kremlin that forced the UK military to take steps to protect British and Irish waters.

2 JULY 2024

By Bloomberg

Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria started a joint mine-hunting force in the Black Sea on Monday to increase shipping safety, particularly for Ukrainian grain exports.

UniCredit asked a top European court to assess the legality of some elements in a decision by its main regulator forcing the Italian lender to further reduce its presence in Russia.

Russia twice sent attack submarines towards Irish Sea

Russian attack submarines have conducted missions around the Irish Sea twice since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, three people familiar with the matter said, an unprecedented move by the Kremlin that forced the UK military to take steps to protect British and Irish waters.

The first deployment of a Russian Kilo-class submarine close to the Irish Sea, which separates the island of Ireland from Great Britain, happened about 18 months ago, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private assessments. The second occurrence took place more recently. The extent of the submarine movements went beyond what UK officials had previously seen, they said.


Two of the people said US officials were aware of the submarines’ movements. The UK’s Ministry of Defence said it did not “comment on operations”. The US monitors Russian naval activity, a senior Biden administration official said. White House spokespeople declined to comment on the latest report, and Russia’s Defence Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Kilo-class submarine is a diesel-electric attack submarine capable of firing Russia’s Kalibr cruise missiles, as well as torpedoes and naval mines. Last month, Russian state media reported that Russian naval vessels, including the Yasen-class Kazan submarine, conducted simulated drills on the Atlantic Ocean ahead of a visit to Cuba.

The deployment of Russian submarines in waters surrounding Britain and western Ireland during the Ukraine war was already known, though it has not previously been reported that they travelled toward the Irish Sea. In 2023, Irish media reported that a British helicopter and warship “chased off” a Russian submarine outside Cork Harbour, in the southwest of Ireland, acting because the Irish military didn’t have the capabilities to counter underwater threats.

Read more: Russian warships hold drills in Atlantic ahead of visit to Cuba

And last month, the BBC reported that a Russian submarine had been spotted off the coast of Scotland. It then travelled to Cuba.

A spokesperson for Ireland’s Department of Defence said the agency did not comment on the operations of other countries’ armed forces. Without linking it to the reports about the Russian submarines, the spokesperson said air and naval assets were conducting “enhanced maritime patrolling” near offshore energy infrastructure in the Irish Sea.

Cork is also the landing point for an undersea cable, the EXA Atlantic, that also connects to Canada and the UK. The defence spokesperson said government agencies were also engaging with each other on the protection of the country’s data cables.

Russia’s deployment of submarines around the UK and Ireland could be an attempt to identify potential weaknesses in British and Irish Sea defences, or to try to intimidate the UK in response to its support for Ukraine, the people said.

It would be challenging for a Russian submarine to successfully navigate the Irish Sea in full without breaching international law, due to the complexity of claims to territorial waters, one of the people said. Submarines legally have to transit on the surface of territorial waters. The varying depths of the Irish Sea would make it difficult for a Russian vessel to travel in the waters submerged, the person said.

The US Naval Institute describes the Kilo programme as “one of the most successful naval programs in modern history..” More than 60 Kilo-class submarines remain in service, according to the institute. They have been used in the Black Sea to attack targets in Ukraine.
Black Sea mine operation begins in bid to help Ukraine exports

Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria started a joint mine-hunting force in the Black Sea on Monday to increase shipping safety, particularly for Ukrainian grain exports.

The Istanbul-led initiative, the first major joint action of Black Sea nations since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, is aimed at defusing mines drifting into specific areas of the Black Sea as a result of the war.

Russia and Ukraine are key producers of grain, and the war has threatened the safe passage of shipments. Kyiv launched its own Black Sea export route last year after the collapse of a safe corridor deal backed by Russia, Turkey and the United Nations. That has successfully boosted exports and helped the economy grow faster than forecast but the route remains risky.

Last year, a Russian missile strike near the key Ukrainian port of Odesa hit a commercial ship, killing a pilot and injuring others. A ship hired by agricultural giant Cargill Inc. was also damaged by an explosion while sailing from a Ukrainian port in the Black Sea in November.

Ukraine said in March that exports from its Black Sea ports had almost returned to pre-war volumes, after repeated attacks and disruptions since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Still, ports around Odesa face frequent strikes from Russia that continue to interrupt activity.

Ukraine has exported 37.4 million tonnes of agrarian products from Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi since the opening of the marine corridor in August 2023, the Ukrainian Infrastructure Ministry said on its website last week.

Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are all part of Nato, yet their shipping force is being handled outside of Nato, in part to avoid escalating tensions with Russia.
UniCredit asks court for clarity as ECB orders Russia cuts

UniCredit asked a top European court to assess the legality of some elements in a decision by its main regulator forcing the Italian lender to further reduce its presence in Russia.

UniCredit has applied to the General Court of the European Union for “definitive legal clarification” of obligations set by the European Central Bank (ECB) for winding down its Moscow-based division, according to an e-mailed statement on Monday.

UniCredit said while it is aligned with the ECB on the need to shrink its Russian business, it has concerns about the terms of the reduction. While its application is being heard, which could take several months, the Italian lender has asked for an interim suspension of a related ECB decision.

UniCredit’s request comes after the ECB this year raised the pressure on several European banks with sizeable business in Russia to pull back from the country. Austrian lender Raiffeisen Bank International said in April that the ECB was set to order a 65% reduction in its Russian loan book, far more than what it had planned. UniCredit received a similar communication, though it hasn’t said what the targets were.

Russian authorities, meanwhile, have made it difficult for international firms to withdraw from the market, putting lenders in a bind. Given the complexities and the lack of a harmonised regulatory framework, UniCredit said it had concerns that the implementation of some of terms requested by the ECB could have “serious unintended consequences” that would affect the whole bank.

The application to the General Court was made “in full knowledge of the ECB,” UniCredit said.

A spokesperson for the ECB declined to comment.

UniCredit operates in Russia through a subsidiary with some 3,100 employees and more than 50 branches. Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Milan-based lender put aside funds against defaults in Russia and wrote down the value of its business there.

Chief Executive Officer Andrea Orcel has so far eschewed the kind of full-scale exit from Russia conducted by Societe Generale. The lender is proceeding with a plan to cut the Russian cross-border exposure to zero by the end of next year. DM

UK

Almost 1.8m people owe £50,000 

 ( $63,151.53 US Dollars ) or more in student debt

By Harrison Jones, BBC News

BBC
The highest debt known to the Student Loan Company now stands at more than £250,000

Almost 1.8 million people are now in at least £50,000 of UK student debt, data obtained by BBC News reveals.

More than 61,000 have balances of above £100,000, figures from the Student Loans Company (SLC) also show, while another 50 people each owe upwards of £200,000.

The statistics were released after a Freedom of Information (FOI) asked for the number of loan holders with above average debts who are eligible to start repayments.

The SLC previously said the average balance for loan holders in England when they start making repayments was less than £45,000. New government data shows that amount has now risen to £48,470.

Balances can be significantly higher for those who study multiple or lengthy courses and often rise rapidly with interest.

In 2023/24, some 2.8 million people in England made a student loan repayment, according to government figures released after the FOI response.

That means only a small fraction of those repaying their balances are in more than £100,000 of debt - but the majority do owe more than £50,000.

It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.

Tom Allingham, from website Save The Student, said such debts were "alarming" but were “in no way indicative of the norm”.

The National Union of Students (NUS) branded it “ridiculous” that none of the main parties are offering "reform" of student finance in the election campaign.



Heavily-indebted graduates have also spoken to BBC News about their concerns with the current system.

Titi, a senior electrical engineer from Croydon who asked for his full name not to be used, saw his student debt - which stands at more than £128,200 - rise by £788.11 between 6 April and 6 June this year.

“No matter how much I pay it is always increasing,” he said, referencing the near 8% interest rate on accounts like his, which is driven by high inflation.


Everything you need to know about student loans

UK's highest student loan revealed to be £231,000

How much does uni cost, and will I earn more if I go?

The father-of-one, 43, told the BBC he feels it is impossible to pay back the balance in full following his four-year course at London South Bank University and two years studying for a Higher National Diploma.

“It seems like a money-making avenue when you look at the (interest) rates applied to the loans,” he said.

Titi said he fears some people may be discouraged from higher education “when they do the calculations” and consider what they could earn without a degree.


Titi saw his student debt rise by £788.11 between 6 April and 6 June


It is more than 10 years since tuition fees were tripled in England. From 2017, fees have cost a maximum of £9,250 per year across all UK nations, though in Scotland, Scottish students are charged a maximum of £1,820.

Debts are written off at the end of loan terms - often 30 years - regardless of how much is owed by that point.

Many people who borrowed "exceptional amounts" on so-called "Plan 2" loans - which were introduced when fees were tripled - are unlikely to pay the full amount back, according to Ben Waltmann, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

But Claire Callender, a professor of higher education policy and deputy director of the Centre for Global Higher Education, told the BBC that owing such high amounts is "likely to have a negative impact on graduates' lives".




It is not clear whether the largest debt now known to the SLC - of £252,000 - is on the same loan as the one revealed to be the highest in March, at £231,000.

Nick Hillman, the director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, told the BBC he was "most shocked" by the number of people in more than £200,000 of student debt.

He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.

"Clearly, at that level, the student loan system is not working well because these people will not pay it all back", Mr Hillman said.


'People will not pay it all back'


In its response to the FOI request, the SLC said people with higher than average balances "may be in receipt of several student loan products", including an Advanced Learner Loan for further education courses and funding for undergraduate courses, postgraduate Master’s courses and postgraduate Doctoral courses.

It said other factors behind high student debts could also include loan holders studying multiple or lengthier courses or holding more than one loan plan type. The company added that some students receive additional funding due to "compelling personal reasons".

Despite being in more than £101,500 of debt, foundation year 2 doctor Abbie Tutt is pleased the system does not impact credit scores.

But Ms Tutt - who posted a video on social media "celebrating" her balance passing £100,000 - is unhappy about how long she will be paying it off for.

The 27-year-old says the debt is saddening when she compares it to that of older colleagues who paid their loans off when terms were more favourable.
Abbie Tutt
Abbie Tutt says comparing her debt with that of older colleagues who have paid it off is saddening



She characterises her debt as a tax. She told the BBC: “If you’re going to uni because it’s your passion and you are going to get a good job and be happy then you could justify it.

“But I am not comfortable with people being in that much debt and not getting a job.”

'Ridiculous'


Chloe Field, the NUS’ vice president for higher education, said means testing of maintenance loans often leads to people from working class backgrounds ending up in the most debt, as they can claim more funding.

“They also generally pay back their loans slower, and therefore end up paying more in interest”, she told the BBC.

Save The Student's Mr Allingham added: “The prior revelation that one graduate had student loan debt of over £231,000 was a watershed moment, which makes it even more shocking that dozens of others also owe in excess of £200,000.”

The Conservatives say that while in government the party has frozen tuition fees and ensured no one pays back more than they borrowed in real terms.

However, like Labour, the Tories are not making any concrete new proposals on tuition fees or student debt.

Labour's manifesto says the current higher education funding settlement "does not work" and promises that the party "will act to create a secure future for higher education".

The Liberal Democrats want to reinstate maintenance grants for disadvantaged students immediately and review higher education finance. The Green Party proposes abolishing tuition fees, while Reform promises to scrap interest on student loans.

The Department for Education declined to comment due to pre-election period restrictions.