Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Israel Decided the War, But Trump’s America Fights and Pays the Bill

More than two decades ago, the illegal war against Iraq was cooked in the dens of the Pentagon by Israel-first ideologues and sold to the American public through mass propaganda. The current war is, in some ways, even more brazen.



Shia Muslims shouts slogans against US President Donald Trump and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and burn their posters and effigy following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in US Israel strikes, at Dargah Shahe Marda Karbala at Jor Bagh, on March 6, 2026 in New Delhi, India.
(Photo by Vipin Kumar/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)

Jamal Kanj
Mar 10, 2026
Common Dreams


American taxpayers are still hemorrhaging from the made-for-Israel war in Iraq, a war audaciously offered as one that would “pay for itself.” Instead, it was paid in Iraqi and American blood, ruins and financed by American debt. The promised democracy was a broken state, regional chaos, and the afterbirth of terror and resistance that continues to metastasize across the Arab world. Marketed as a short, decisive campaign, Iraq became a two-decade-long disaster with no exit in sight. Trillions were burned on lies manufactured by Israel-first Zionists in Washington, while generations of Americans—many not even born when the invasion began—were conscripted into inheriting the debt, the interest, and the moral stain.

The real balance sheet of that war is etched into nearly 5,000 American tombstones and the endless corridors of veterans’ hospitals. Before that blood-soaked bill is even paid, the very same architect, using the same lies, has succeeded again in dragging the U. S. into another made-for-Israel war, this time against Iran. Iraq was not an aberration; it was a rehearsal. Yet, Iran doesn’t appear to be the final act on the Israeli menu. In recent weeks, former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett declared that Turkey is next. And it is the U.S., not Israel, that is expected to keep paying for wars, America neither needed nor chose.

The evidence of who set the clock of this war is unmistakable. The most revealing admission did not come from Tehran, Moscow, or Beijing, but from the U.S. State Department. In an unguarded moment, the U.S. Secretary of State admitted that the timing of this war was not an American choice. This became painfully clear when the State Department was caught unprepared to help evacuate tens of thousands of Americans from the war zone. As U.S. ambassadors hurried to evacuate their staff and families, desperate citizens were told their government could not assist and were advised to arrange their own departures, after airports had already closed.

This is not a minor detail. It’s a government that is willing to sacrifice the well-being and security of its citizens by joining a war decided by someone else. It goes to the heart of sovereignty and democratic accountability. A nation that chooses to go to war prepares its people, its diplomacy, and its logistics. A nation that is dragged into war improvises and hopes for the best.

Iran, for its part, is not the caricature often presented by the American Secretary of War and Donald Trump. It is a country prepared for drawn-out conflict and strategic patience. During the nearly eight-year Iran-Iraq War, Tehran fought a grinding, no-win war against a better-armed adversary. Against the expectations of Western military analysts, Iran endured. In a grim irony, it even committed the greatest of all sins: purchasing weapons from Israel, falling into Tel Aviv’s cynical strategy to weaken both Baghdad and Tehran simultaneously. Israel was willing to arm its supposed arch-enemy as part of its broader calculus of exhaustion and division.

That history matters today. Iran has demonstrated, repeatedly, a willingness to absorb punishment, and extend conflicts over time. At the end of the day, and by all means necessary, Iran is unlikely to surrender. In a protracted war of attrition to bleed the world economy, Tehran could move to close the Strait of Hormuz, an oil blood line for world economies. Iran may be economically battered, and it has been for decades under severe sanctions, but that very weakness reduces its restraint. A country with little left to lose is more inclined to impose pain on others, including Western and neighboring welfare oil economies dependent on uninterrupted energy exports. Meanwhile, regional instability in the Gulf and prolonged American entanglement create the perfect symbiosis for Israel: a state that flourishes in the shadows of regional chaos like a scavenger thriving on the scrap of a landfill.

President Trump has suggested escorting oil shipments in the Strait to keep the oil flowing. The macho bravado may play well on television or for the stock market, but history, old and recent, offers daunting realities. The same was attempted during the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s but failed. More recently, the U.S., the EU, and Israel combined failed to force a much smaller and poorer country—Yemen—to open the Red Sea. After months of bombardment, siege and naval pressure, Washington was forced into negotiations, and even then, Yemeni forces continued to block vessels linked to Israel until Gaza ceasefire.

The comparison is useful. The shorelines area under the Houthi control of the Red Sea (green map in the link) in the north of Yemen, is a much wider maritime passage. The Strait of Hormuz, by contrast, is so narrow in a clear day each shore is visible from the other. To borrow a simple image, in the Houthi area the width of the Red Sea is an Amazon River and where Hormuz is a stream. The narrowness of the Hormuz Strait makes control easier for Iran and exposes the vulnerability of U.S. naval ships. Before promising to escort commercial shipping, a responsible administration should ask a basic question: if a small, impoverished Yemen could not be subdued by the world’s most powerful militaries, how exactly will American warships be safer under the reach of fire in the narrower Strait?

There is another question Washington refuses to entertain: How will Americans feel when they realize they are risking lives, ships, and economic stability largely to advance Israel’s sole strategic objectives? This is not an abstract question. It is a political and economic reckoning, purposefully delayed. Especially since Americans are still reeling from the cost of previous Israeli wars, and now, they are asked to take on a new national debt—$200 billion—to bankroll yet another war, especially made for Israel.

The made-for-Israel wars may have begun in Iraq but will not end with Iran. Israeli false flags are poised to provoke further escalations designed to entrap even states traditionally friendly to Tehran, such as Oman. For Israel, victory remains incomplete unless it drags Gulf Arab states into open confrontation with Iran, hardening divisions that may last generations. Iranian mistrust of the Gulf Arabs would likely endure even in the event of regime change. In this calculus, Israel “wins” not only on the battlefield, but by entrenching lasting hostility between Iran and the Arab world, ensuring a permanently fragmented region.

More than two decades ago, the illegal war against Iraq was cooked in the dens of the Pentagon by Israel-first ideologues and sold to the American public through the managed media, ruse and weapons of mass deception. The current war is, in some ways, even more brazen. It was exclusively designed in the war ministry offices of Tel Aviv, and Trump obliged.

This is not America’s war. The decision was made elsewhere, and timed elsewhere, fought on behalf of someone else to serve the strategic objectives of a foreign country. Washington has subordinated the American national interest to the tribal agenda of Israeli-firsters inside the Beltway. Simply put: Tel Aviv chooses the war, and Washington pays the bill.


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Jamal Kanj
Jamal Kanj is the author of Children of Catastrophe: Journey from a Palestinian Refugee Camp to America, and other books. He writes frequently on Arab world issues for various national and international commentaries.
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America’s War of Choice is Israel’s War of Necessity


March 10, 2026

Photograph Source: U.S. Central Command – Public Domain

Jeffrey St. Clair recently stated in CounterPunch that “Iran’s leadership was discussing a plan to end its enriched uranium program when [the February 28th] attack was launched.” The U.S. bombing “was a joint venture with Israel,” stated St. Clair, “which has never wanted negotiations with Iran, only an end to the regime.” Stephen Zunes remarked just after the attack that “an Omani mediator said a nuclear agreement with Iran was within reach [and] in response, the United States and Israel started bombing.”

Further, Lawrence Davidson indicated that “Iran had agreed to deactivate its uranium stockpile. This done, it could not create a bomb. It is exactly the moment that the Iranians agreed to this that Trump and Netanyahu decided to launch their attack.” Trita Parsi at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft verifies a similar claim.

Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat said, “the moral dilemma that we are all facing as neighbors of Iran on this first day, of what is likely to be a protracted regional escalation, is about defending multilateral norms vs. nuclear proliferation.” “The U.S. attacks are from an international law perspective,” said Ulgen, “totally illegal and illegitimate, but now that the campaign has started, Iran’s political will and nuclear infrastructure emerge relatively unscathed from all of this. The next phase will surely be regional proliferation.” Lebanese journalist Kim Ghattas called Trump’s actions “the ultimate hubris, a president more focused on the spectacle of power than its consequences.”

Events and Facts

Leading up to the war, as for the death toll among the 2025-2026 Iranian protesters in 27 of its 31 provinces, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch estimated the number to be around 6,000 while a number of 33,000 spread on social media and among right-leaning diasporic sources without verification. The larger figure conflates historical prison executions dating back to 1988, is impacted by internet blackout, and politically motivated.

Additionally, actors such as the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK), may have intentionally inflated the numbers. Further, there have been reports that political violence in Tehran extends to leftists found and killed by Mossad. These facts illustrate a gap between irresponsibly circulated statements by Trump apologists and the actual verifiable evidence. What is more, Trump and Netanyahu’s poorly handled public statements months prior to the war, signaled the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to hunt down U.S. and Israeli recruited Iranian soldiers (610,000 active personnel,) according to Seymour Hersh.

Overall, U.S. intelligence found no proof of an imminent Iranian threat although the UN could not verify a complete suspension of uranium. On March 3, it was reported by Iranian authorities that at least 168-180 people, including many school children, were killed in Minab by an airstrike. The girls’ school, Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary, was originally built near a military base but the base has been closed for 15 years. Videos showing the Islamic Republic using civilians as human shields have been debunked as AI generated by FactNameh and the theory of Iranian misfire lacks forensic and operational proof.

Other anecdotal and unverified reports of the human shield narrative lack supporting evidence. Additionally, satellite imagery reported by NPR reveals that initial airstrikes on Iran featured multiple targets. The imagery is inconsistent with what would amount to Iranian friendly fire. Later analysis reveals it was likely a U.S. strike. Zunes, commented that “schools, hospitals, city parks, and cultural sites are being targeted in the United States and Israeli bombing of Tehran.” This included the Azadi Sports Stadium.

Interpretations and Motives

The 2026 Iran War features a larger fragmentation of the American ruling class. Trump is having a difficult time rationalizing and finding his rhetorical bearings with an unpopular action that suddenly has involved 16 nations and counting. Aside from the international consensus and clear violations of IHL and global norms, Trump has violated customary human rights obligations and standard foreign policy practices found in Just War Theoryrealism, and the doctrines of smart power.  As the U.S. Senate fails to “curb Trump’s war powers,” the president ignores “the lessons of Iraq.” And as Harvard’s Steven Levitsky once noted, “state failure brings violence and instability; it almost never brings democratization.”

The Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine has been concerned with the plan and warned of its potential challenges. Trump’s policy of “Maximum Pressure” related to his posture of destabilizing Iran is accompanied by his “multiple choice communication” and ways to justify his overall lack of rhetorical consistency. In fact, Trump, Marco Rubio, and Pete Hegseth have relied on an unsteadiness in the place of stating concrete policy objectives.

After Rubio stated that the U.S. preemptively struck Iran because Israel was going to attack first, the narrative shifted to Iran supposedly aiming to attack both Israel and the U.S. Further, we are not actually at war, yet the war is going very well. All the while, Iran could be left with a leader worse than before. Regime change is not an option, but the administration is considering a change in the regime. Trump has also stated that he wants to select the next ayatollah, which puts his own supporters at home and abroad in a position to rally for a U.S. politician dedicated to giving them another human rights abuser they rightly resented in the first place.

America’s War of Choice

In 2009, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass authored, War of Necessity, War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars. He compared the first war’s (1991) “traditional, legitimate, and strategic” approach to the second war (2003) — one “poorly conceived and implemented.”  Haass concluded that “using force to oust regimes is simply too costly and too uncertain.” David E. Sanger, recently in the New York Times stated, “For Trump, the Iran Attack Is the Ultimate War of Choice.” Sanger remarked that Trump “was not driven by an immediate threat” and did not present evidence to justify the action. The concept of necessity in war requires the use of force only as a last resort.

Senior Policy Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations Jeremy Cliffe stated that “Europeans should communicate clearly that this is a war of choice by America, in contravention of the same UN charter [they] have invoked to condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and insist on Greenland’s sovereignty.” This conflict however, looks to be Israel’s war of necessity.

Operation Epic Fury presents a preventative strike, not a preemptive one under international law, much like Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, which was denounced as a clear violation of international norms. Stephen Zunes pointed out, “This is not a preemptive war. A preemptive war is in response to an imminent attack. This is a war of aggression. A flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter.” Alarmingly, Trump stated over a month before the invasion that “I don’t need international law,” as he currently creates new norms. Zunes previously stated that “this war isn’t about nonproliferation, it’s about inflicting as much damage as possible on a country that isn’t willing to accept U.S. hegemony in the region.”

Overall, since returning to office for a second term, the Trump administration has carried out air strikes in Venezuela, Nigeria, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and Somalia, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. In the Iran 2026 War, the U.S. has already carried out over 3,000 strikes.

Sanger emphasized however, that “Netanyahu urged [Trump] starting in December to launch this war” with little plan in sight. There is mounting evidence that interests serve Israel much more than the U.S. Top aides, diplomats, its top general, and the American people, have little faith in the attacks. America’s closest friend, Britain, refused the American military’s access to the Diego Garcia to launch American fighter jets. This later shifted to limited use.

Israel’s War of Necessity

It appears that the U.S. is clearly acting on behalf of Israel and prefers to use the country as an excuse to mobilize and cloud a series of domestic issues impacting Trump’s unpopularity at home. Ulgen also advanced that Trump “wanted to enter the November midterm elections as the U.S. leader who overthrew the regime in Iran.” A recent Politico article stated that “White House Officials believe ‘the politics are a lot better’ if Israel strikes Iran first.”

The question remains, how this decision impacts U.S. strategic interests. Muhammad Idrees Ahmad of New Lines Magazine indicated that the U.S. has no motive to go to war with Iran except for Israel and they have been pushing for a U.S. attack for the last 30 years. After September 11, 2001, the neocons targeted Iraq “only because it was part of their ‘dual rollback’ policy [and] selling a war on Iran seemed less achievable,” cited Ahmad. All the while Trump’s philosophical departures from Bolton, Bush and Cheney seem exaggerated and he’s like other hard-right hawks.

Netanyahu, “a wanted war criminal,” says reporter Secunder Kermani, has painted Trump into a regime change corner. Even worse than regime change, the goal could be outright “state collapse” as Mahbod Seraji wrote recently in Truthout. Trump lacks support from members of Congress, global allies, and the top brass in the military. Claiming that Israel has “a free hand” and drives U.S. foreign policy is usually a problematic accusation for many reasons, but in this case it looks self-evident. As Netanyahu recently stated, “Israel now has the assistance of the United States, my friend, U.S. President Donald Trump, and the U.S. military. This coalition of forces allows us to do what I have yearned to do for 40 years.” Iran is a thorn in the side of the U.S. but a major juggernaut for Israel.

For the most part, the U.S. has avoided the use of regional hard power when it came to the Iranian government. It seemed to go along with the Iranian foreign policy, what analyst Mouin Rabbani referred to as “strategic patience.” All the while, the U.S. has implemented a host of structural and cultural impediments to Iran’s social and political development including the toppling of democratically elected Mosaddegh in 1953, unlawful political violence, the killing of civilians, the arming of insurgents, and the murder of scientists, in addition to supporting Saddam Husseinthroughout his worst atrocities. Further, history lessons, such as the U.S. failure of the 1980s Operation Eagle Claw are being ignored.

Although it was argued that George W. Bush allowed Israel to fly reconnaissance missions over the Iranian border aimed at intimidation, the reports were challenged and he ultimately rejected Israel’s plea to invade Iran. Further, as Ahmad pointed out, “Dick Cheney had spent the 1990s lobbying for the removal of sanctions so U.S. companies could do business in Iran.” This advances the idea that Trump is following Israel’s lead, as he pushes the world further into regional escalation and global economic collapse, with well over 1,000 Iranians killed in the war’s first week alone.

Daniel Falcone is a historian, teacher and journalist. In addition to CounterPunch, he has written for The Journal of Contemporary Iraq & the Arab WorldThe Nation, Jacobin, Truthout, Foreign Policy in Focus and Scalawag. He resides in New York City and is a member of The Democratic Socialists of America.

Israel Planned War on Iran for 40 Years. Everything Else Is a Smoke Screen


The embers of resistance – in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen - have not

been snuffed out. With the attack on Iran, they are being fanned into a fire

by  | Mar 10, 2026 |

It is near impossible to make sense – at least from the justifications on offer – of what US President Donald Trump really hopes to achieve with his and Israel‘s blatantly illegal war of aggression on Iran.

Is it to destroy an Iranian nuclear weapons program for which there has never been any tangible evidence, and which Trump claimed just a few months ago to have “completely and totally obliterated” in an earlier lawbreaking attack?

Or is it intended to force Tehran back to negotiations on its nuclear energy enrichment program that were brought prematurely to an end when the US launched its unprovoked attack – talks, we should note, that were made necessary because in 2018, during his first term, Trump tore up the original deal with Iran?

Or is the war supposed to browbeat Iran into greater flexibility, even though Trump blew up the talks at the very moment Oman, the chief mediator, insisted that Tehran had capitulated on almost every one of Washington’s onerous demands and that a deal was “within our reach“?

Or are the air strikes designed to “liberate” Iranians, even though the early victims included at least 165 civilians in a girls’ school, most of them children aged between 7 and 12?

Or is the aim to pressure Iran to give up its ballistic missiles – the only deterrence it has against attack, and which would leave it utterly defenseless against US and Israeli malevolent designs?

Or did Washington believe Tehran was about to strike first, even though Pentagon officials have confided to congressional staff that there was zero intelligence an attack was about to happen?

Or is the goal to decapitate the Iranian regime, as the strikes have already achieved with the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei? If so, to what purpose, given that Khamenei was so opposed to an Iranian nuclear bomb that he issued a religious edict, a fatwa, against its development?

Might Khamenei’s successor – having seen how utterly untrustworthy the US and Israel are, how they operate as rogue states unconstrained by international law – now decide that developing a nuclear bomb is an absolute priority to protect Iran’s sovereignty?

No clear rationale

There is no clear rationale from Washington because the author of this attack is not to be found in either the White House or the Pentagon. This plan was cooked up in Tel Aviv decades ago.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, admitted as much on Sunday. He gloated: “This combined effort allows us to do what I have hoped to achieve for 40 years: to crush the regime of terror completely. That’s my promise and this is what is going to happen.”

Netanyahu has been peddling this same urgent, nonsensical pretext for attacking Iran all that time. For 40 years, each year has been proclaimed the very last opportunity to stop the “mad mullahs” from obtaining a bomb – a bomb that never materialized.

And all the while, Israel’s own arsenal of nuclear weapons, undeclared and therefore un-monitored, has been an open secret.

Europe helped Israel develop its bomb, while the US turned a blind eye, even as Israeli leaders espoused a suicidal doctrine known as the “Samson Option“, which posited that Israel would rather detonate its nuclear arsenal than suffer a conventional military defeat.

The Samson Option implicitly rejects the idea that any other state in the Middle East can be allowed to acquire a bomb and thereby level the military playing field with Israel.

It is that very premise that, for decades, has guided Israeli policy towards Tehran. Not because Iran has shown an inclination to develop a weapon. Nor because its supposedly “mad mullahs” would be foolish enough to fire them at Israel were they ever to acquire them.

No, it was for other reasons. Because Iran is the largest and most unified state in the region, one with a rich history, a strong cultural identity and a formidable intellectual tradition. Because Iran has repeatedly shown itself – whether under secular or religious leaders – unwilling to submit to western, and Israeli, colonial domination.

And because it is looked to as a source of authority and leadership by Shia religious communities in neighboring countries – IraqLebanonSyriaYemen – that have a history of similarly refusing to bow to Israeli hegemony.

Israel’s fear was that, were Iran to follow North Korea and acquire a nuclear weapon, Israel would be finished as the West’s most useful militarized client state in the oil-rich Middle East.

Stripped of its ability to terrorize its neighbors, stoke sectarian division and help project US imperial power into the region, Israel would lose its rationale. It would become the ultimate white elephant.

Israeli leaders – grown fat on endless military subsidies paid for by US taxpayers and given license to plunder the Palestinians’ resources – were never going to willingly step off their gravy train.

Which is why Iran has rarely been out of Israel’s sights.

‘Birth pangs’

The extent of Israel’s extraordinary deception over the case for war on Iran can be gauged by comparing it to the hoax perpetrated by the George W Bush administration in launching its invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Iraq was another strong military state – if one more inherently fragile because of its deep sectarian and ethnic divisions – that Israel feared could develop a nuclear capacity that would wreck its top-dog status.

In the build-up to this illegal war – again cheered on by Israel – Bush claimed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein had large, secret stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction that predated the introduction in 1991 of a United Nations weapons inspection regime.

The inspectors, who enjoyed extensive powers in Iraq, assessed that to be improbable. They also pointed out that, even had some of Iraq’s known chemical weapons eluded their inspections, they would by then have been so old as to have turned into “harmless goo“.

After the invasion, no WMD were ever found. Nonetheless, western politicians and media readily bought into the big lie. At least on that occasion, they could claim to have had only months to assess the credibility of the allegations.

In the case of Iran, by contrast, the politicians and media have had 40 years to investigate and weigh the plausibility of Israel’s claims. They should long ago have worked out that Netanyahu is an utterly unreliable narrator of a supposed Iranian “threat”.

And that does not even factor in that he is also a fugitive war crimes suspect who has spent more than two years lying about Israel’s genocidal destruction of Gaza. No one should trust a word that comes out of his mouth.

As with the ongoing eradication of Gaza, and the earlier occupation of Iraq, the current attack on Iran is another US-Israeli criminal co-production – in fact, a continuation of the same project.

The sales pitch is clear.

Netanyahu talks of wishing to “crush the terror regime”, just as he earlier spoke of “eradicating” Hamas in Gaza.

Trump similarly claims a defeated Iran is the key to a “totally different Middle East“. After the launch of air strikes at the weekend, he urged Iranians to overthrow their “repressive theocracy” and build a “free and peace-seeking Iran”.

It is all designed to echo fantasies about engineering a new Middle East that Israel and its ideological agents in Washington – known as the neoconservatives, or neocons – have been peddling for more than a quarter of a century, since before the futile invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Condoleezza Rice, Bush’s secretary of state, spoke in 2006 of painful “birth pangs” the region would have to endure while the US and Israeli militaries acted as midwife to this new era.

The first time around, the plan quickly came unstuck. US troops could not overcome fierce Iraqi resistance. Afghanistan was slowly recovered by the Taliban from its US and British occupiers. And Hezbollah dealt Israel a bloody nose when it tried to reoccupy south Lebanon in 2006.

Nonetheless, Round One was a horror show. It involved the mass slaughter of populations across the region by the US and Israel. Special US military black sites were established where torture flourished. International law was shredded. And the displacement of millions of people by war drove them towards Europe and stoked the rise of an anti-immigrant far right.

‘Regime change’ myth

Round Two, which Israel and the neocons have been champing at the bit to start ever since, was always going to be even uglier.

Its moment arrived in late 2023 with Hamas’s lethal, one-day breakout from the Gaza concentration camp where Palestinians – some 2.3 million in number by that time – had been imprisoned by Israel for decades.

Insisting on the right to “retaliate”, Israel launched a genocidal campaign of indiscriminate air strikes. The tiny coastal enclave was leveled, many tens – more likely, hundreds – of thousands of Palestinians were killed, and the entire population left homeless and destitute.

But that devastation – just like Israel’s parallel campaign to starve Gaza’s people – was not simply a response to Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2023, though it has been taboo to suggest otherwise.

Israel long had a plan for “remaking” the Middle East, one that dated back even before Netanyahu’s rise to power.

It is still unclear how much Israel’s template for a transformed Middle East accords with Washington’s, though analysts usually refer loosely to both in terms of “regime change”. But that is a misnomer. Even for Washington, regime change precludes installing a democratic leader representing the will of the Iranian people.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who served in Iraq, was more honest than recent predecessors in dismissing the idea that anything benevolent would emerge from this illegal attack.

“No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically correct wars,” he told reporters.

There is good reason for that aversion. The last time Iran had a democratic government, in the early 1950s, its secular, socialist prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, outraged the West by nationalizing Iran’s oil industry for the benefit of Iranians.

The CIA’s Operation Ajax toppled him in 1953 and reinstated the brutal Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as monarch, or Shah, allowing the US and Britain to take back control of Iran’s oil.

The backlash was 26 years coming. Islamic clerics rode an outpouring of popular hatred for the US and Israeli-backed Shah to launch their revolution.

Unhinged minority

Washington would doubtless like “regime change” in the form of installing Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the Shah, as a new autocratic, western puppet.

Israel might be happy with that conclusion too.

But no one in either Washington or Tel Aviv really imagines Iran can be bombed into accepting the return of a cruel client leader like the Shah.

All that the US has managed to prove so far is the obvious: that large numbers of Iranians can be driven to the streets in protest, as they were in late December, if they and their country are impoverished beyond endurance by a sustained and pitiless regime of US economic sanctions.

But whatever the insinuations of western politicians and media, Iranians angry at being driven into penury are neither a coherent political movement nor are they likely to be receptive to supplications from the very US elites that have spent years bankrupting their country.

If the idea that an Iranian opposition is poised to sweep to power looks plausible, it is only because western media has been priming their audiences with two likely falsehoods.

First, that the Iranian regime has no mass support. And second, that those out protesting exclusively blame their plight on their own rulers rather than reserving a share of their anger for external actors meddling maliciously in their lives.

A few wealthy Iranian exiles – those keen once again to profit from selling off Iran’s silverware to colonial western masters – may be cheering on the bombing of Iranian schoolchildren from the safety of western TV studios. But it would be unwise to imagine they represent anything more than a small, unhinged minority.

Maga turmoil

Unlike the muddle caused in Washington by the need to placate the US public, Israel’s long-term plan for “remaking” the Middle East is clear-sighted.

In Tel Aviv, there is no interest in “regime change” unless the new regime is willing to subordinate itself – as the Gulf states have done – to Israel as regional overlord.

With no likelihood of that, Israel wants what would be better termed “regime overthrow” or “regime collapse”: the wholesale destruction of Iran’s infrastructure, the dissolution of all governmental and military authority, and the creation of a power vacuum in which Israel can manipulate rival actors and foment a permanent and enervating civil war.

Sounds familiar?

That is because the attack on Iran accords with the same disastrous US military strategy employed by Israel’s neocon allies in Washington in the assaults on Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen before October 2023.

Trump was brought to power precisely because he promised he would stop the “forever wars” – wars for Israel – that have created chaos across the Middle East and directly fed new forms of militant Islamic extremism, from al-Qaeda to Islamic State.

Understandably, his Maga movement is now in turmoil over the attack on Iran.

But Trump, electorally dependent on the votes of the vehemently pro-Israel Christian evangelicals and financially dependent on big Israel donors like Miriam Adelson, was never going to stray far from the existing playbook.

Since October 2023, backed by the Biden administration, Israel has rolled out its regime overthrow wars in Gaza, in Lebanon, and once again in Syria. Each is now militarily eviscerated and barely governable.

Trump did not object to those wars – and their primary purpose was to pave the way to Iran’s isolation from its regional allies, leaving it exposed enough for the current attack.

This has followed an entirely predictable script, as the four-star general Wesley Clark admitted back in 2007. Shortly after the 2001 Twin Towers attack, he was shown a classified briefing paper for a Pentagon plan to “take down” seven countries, starting in Iraq and ending with Iran.

Pact with the devil

Washington’s western allies may be privately uncomfortable at being visibly associated with another illegal US-Israeli war. But in supporting more than two years of genocide in Gaza, they already made their pact with the devil. There is no going back now.

Which is why Britain, FranceGermanyCanada and Australia all dutifully lined up behind the Trump administration this week.

The first reaction of Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, was to eat the words he delivered at Davos in January: that it was time for “middle powers” like his to stop “living within a lie” of US-led benevolence and instead establish their own strategic autonomy to advance a more honest foreign policy.

Carney issued a statement at the weekend throwing Canada’s full weight behind the US and Israel’s egregiously illegal war of aggression on Iran – what international law defines as the “supreme international crime” – only to have to walk it back when faced with a domestic backlash.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, meanwhile, has handed Trump the keys to UK airbases for what he duplicitously terms “defensive purposes”.

Someone needs to explain to Starmer, once a famed human rights lawyer, that you cannot assist “defensively” a war of aggression. In doing so, you become an aggressor too.

The timeline of the Pentagon’s 2001 regime overthrow plan seen by Gen Clark was “seven countries in five years”. As events have proved a quarter of a century on, that scenario was wildly unrealistic.

There is no reason to assume that the US or Israel has any clearer insight than it did in 2001 into how this will play out. The only certainty is that it will not go according to plan.

Israel has wiped tiny Gaza off the map, but Hamas is still standing and in charge of the ruins, doubtless filled with an anger and desire for revenge burning even more intensely.

Iran is a far, far bigger proposition than Gaza, or any of the other previous targets of Israeli-US attacks.

The embers of resistance – in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and potentially in new sites like Bahrain – have not been snuffed out. And now, with the attack on Iran, they are being fanned into a fire with every new crime, every new outrage, every new atrocity.

Originally appeared in the Middle East Eye.

Jonathan Cook is the author of three books on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and a winner of the Martha Gellhorn Special Prize for Journalism. His website and blog can be found at www.jonathan-cook.net.