ZERO, ZILCH, NADA, NONE...
Sky News
Updated Sat, 4 November 2023
Maybe there will be a breakthrough in the hours or couple of days ahead.
But it doesn't feel likely from the language we've heard from the men (they are all men) driving the war and the diplomacy in this conflict.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, spent Friday in Israel meeting the Israeli leadership and Saturday in Jordan meeting Arab leaders.
He was threading the tightest of diplomatic needles: maintaining full support for Israel's right to defend itself while demonstrating to the world that America is capable of influencing events to bring about an end to civilian casualties.
The Israeli objectives are clear and perhaps summarised most succinctly by war minister Benny Gantz to me on Friday.
"Everything that happens in Gaza right now is rightly connected to break Hamas and release the hostages. All the rest are simply details."
Those "details" were outlined by the Jordanian foreign minister alongside Mr Blinken in Jordan.
He reminded the world that 3,700 children have died in Gaza in the last four weeks. That's more, he said, than all the children killed in all conflicts globally since 2019.
He added that the situation in Gaza will create "a sea of hatred that will define generations to come".
That's the deep long-term concern. The damage may already have been done - hatred sowed through events generated by the protagonists on both sides - but the extent of the impact depends, most immediately, on the ability to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
What's the difference between a ceasefire and a humanitarian pause?
The Arab nations and the United Nations secretary-general are calling for an immediate ceasefire.
The Americans, the British and many other Western nations are choosing different language - a humanitarian pause.
What's the difference? A ceasefire is political in nature, providing parameters to allow for negotiations. There's no way Israel is anywhere near close to negotiations with anyone in Gaza. Even on hostages, they are clear: unconditional release now.
A humanitarian pause is, as the name suggests, humanitarian, not political. Its singular aim is to provide space for aid to get in and civilians to get out.
Israel believes aid will be passed to Hamas
So what's the problem? Well, Israel doesn't believe that the aid (fuel for hospitals included) won't be passed to Hamas for war purposes.
America's special envoy to the crisis, David Satterfield, said this weekend that he has not seen any attempts by Hamas to interfere with or take aid shipments destined for civilians from the few trucks allowed in last week.
But that hasn't prompted Israel to change course so far. It begs the question: how much influence does Biden's America really have over an ally that changed after the 7 October attacks?
Gaza fuel will only last a few days
What's at stake? Well beyond the colossal civilian death toll (and the lasting impact that will have) here are a few numbers passed to me by a senior UN official this weekend.
Gaza has about 160,000 litres of fuel left. That will last a few days. After that, the hospital generators shut down, the sewage system shuts down, and the lights go out.
There are about 9,000 cancer patients in Gaza right now. There are 1,000 dialysis patients, 50,000 pregnant women.
Some 5,000 women give birth every month in Gaza; that's about 160 babies born every day in hospitals under bombardment which could soon have no electricity.
These are the "details" as Israel responds in the only way it says it can to its darkest day exactly a month ago.
Schools and hospitals hit by strikes as Israel snubs US warnings with increased attacks in Gaza
Bel Trew
Sat, 4 November 2023
Intense airstrikes by Israel on Gaza have damaged United Nations schools, hospitals and ambulance convoys, despite mounting pressure from the US and Arab states for Tel Aviv to allow humanitarian pauses.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu snubbed blunt warnings from Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, on Friday that Israel risks losing any hope of an eventual peace deal with the Palestinians unless it eases the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
A day later Mr Blinken, who has called for “localised pauses” in fighting over a blanket ceasefire, travelled to Amman, the capital of Jordan, to frantically lobby support from senior regional officials, who remain angry and deeply suspicious of Israel as it intensifies its war against Hamas.
In a rare public disagreement at a news conference, the foreign ministers of Jordan and Egypt, standing alongside Mr Blinken, repeatedly pushed for a total cessation of hostilities, saying the death of thousands of civilians could not be justified as self-defence.
An Israeli airstrike at a UN-run school sheltering displaced people (Reuters)
Health officials in Hamas-run Gaza said more than 9,250 Palestinians have been killed during the last month of war.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestinians said at least five UN schools, sheltering displaced civilians, have been damaged in strikes in the last 48 hours, killing more than 40 people according to initial reports. The latest was a school in Jabalia refugee camp in the north of Gaza which was hit twice on Saturday, killing as many as 15 people including children, according to the health ministry.
The Independent asked the Israeli military for comment but has yet to receive a reply.
The World Health Organisation said that on Friday three hospitals and an ambulance convoy have come under fire, killing and injuring dozens of people, attacks it said might “violate international law”.
Gaza’s health ministry said two more people were killed on Saturday in a strike by the gate of Nasser Hospital in Gaza City, now the heart of the combat zone.
“At least one strike hit the school yard where there were tents for displaced families,” Juliette Toma, a UNRWA spokesperson said of Saturday’s strike on the UN school. “Another strike hit inside the school where women were baking bread.”
The UN-run school in the Jabaliya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip (Reuters)
The Israeli army has pounded Gaza from the air and sea, imposed a crippling siege and launched a ground assault, in retaliation for a deadly attack by Hamas on southern Israel when militants killed hundreds of people and took dozens hostage.
One month in, the widening offensive in Gaza has stirred global alarm as humanitarian conditions in the strip collapse: food is scarce and medical services are shuttering.
Civilians have told The Independent of risking their lives to queue for bread for hours, and drinking dirty water. Doctors have spoken about operating without anaesthetic and using washing up liquid to clean wounds.
Israel has repeatedly ordered Palestinian civilians, including the wounded in hospital, to evacuate to the south of the country, as it has intensified its strikes and pushed ground forces deeper into the besieged area.
US special envoy David Satterfield said that while up to 1 million people had moved to the south of the Gaza Strip, some 350,000 to 400,000 still remained in northern Gaza City and its environs that have now become an intense combat zone.
The United Nations has said for many, especially the wounded in hospitals, evacuating would be impossible. The Palestinian Red Crescent said Israeli forces hit a convoy of ambulances trying to head south twice on Friday resulting in dozens of deaths and injuries. Israel claimed responsibility for the attack saying they were targeting Hamas operatives that were hiding in ambulances.
Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Tal Al Hawa neighbourhood in Gaza City on Saturday (EPA)
But it has raised serious concerns about safe routes out for civilians.
Israel said on Saturday it would try to open a humanitarian corridor for civilians to evacuate from the north along central Salahuddin road after multiple reports the central and coastal roads to the south have been hit by Israeli tank fire and airstrikes.
Israel said the Saturday corridor attempt failed after their forces were attacked by Hamas militants.
Hamas “exploited the humanitarian window that the IDF provided to residents of the Gaza Strip to move southwards, and the terrorists fired mortars and anti-tank missiles at IDF troops who arrived and operated to open the route”, the army said.
Saturday’s meeting with Mr Blinken was convened by Jordanian foreign minister Ayman al-Safadi, who said the gathering was organised “in the context of their efforts aimed at stopping the Israeli war on Gaza and the humanitarian catastrophe it is causing”.
Washington has tried to speak with Israel, Arab states and international organisations on the future of Gaza and has dismissed ceasefires in place of seeking localised humanitarian “pauses”.
“A ceasefire now would simply leave Hamas in place, able to regroup and repeat what it did on October 7,” Mr Blinken said on Saturday as he engaged in frantic diplomacy in the region. He added: “No nation, none of us would accept that ... So it is important to reaffirm Israel’s right and its obligation to defend itself.”
But both Jordanian foreign minister Mr Safadi and his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry appeared reluctant to openly discuss those conversations and instead zeroed in on the need for a ceasefire.
“The international community’s responsibility always is to seek the cessation of hostilities, not promote the continuance of violence,” Mr Shoukry said. “I think we need to get our priorities straight. Right now we have to make sure that this war stops.”
Sameh Shoukry, left, Ayman Safadi, centre, and Antony Blinken in Amman on Saturday (Getty)
Mr Safadi added: “What happens next – how can we even entertain what will happen in Gaza when we do not know what kind of Gaza will be left.”
Arab states are also concerned by the risk of the conflict spreading into the region.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias backed by Iran have both launched attacks on Israel since 7 October, while Tehran-backed Iraqi Shia militias have been firing on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati – who was the first to meet with Mr Blinken – stressed the urgent need for a ceasefire in Gaza. Mr Mikati also said “Israeli aggression” in southern Lebanon must stop.
The US has grave concerns that Hezbollah, which has already stepped up rocket and cross-border attacks on northern Israel, will take a more active role in the conflict.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gave his first major speech since the 7 October attacks on Israel. He did not forecast his group’s greater involvement despite professing it was not perturbed by US attempts to deter it and threatened that the US would “pay the heaviest price” if it did not reign in Israel.
Bel Trew
Sat, 4 November 2023
Intense airstrikes by Israel on Gaza have damaged United Nations schools, hospitals and ambulance convoys, despite mounting pressure from the US and Arab states for Tel Aviv to allow humanitarian pauses.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu snubbed blunt warnings from Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, on Friday that Israel risks losing any hope of an eventual peace deal with the Palestinians unless it eases the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
A day later Mr Blinken, who has called for “localised pauses” in fighting over a blanket ceasefire, travelled to Amman, the capital of Jordan, to frantically lobby support from senior regional officials, who remain angry and deeply suspicious of Israel as it intensifies its war against Hamas.
In a rare public disagreement at a news conference, the foreign ministers of Jordan and Egypt, standing alongside Mr Blinken, repeatedly pushed for a total cessation of hostilities, saying the death of thousands of civilians could not be justified as self-defence.
An Israeli airstrike at a UN-run school sheltering displaced people (Reuters)
Health officials in Hamas-run Gaza said more than 9,250 Palestinians have been killed during the last month of war.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestinians said at least five UN schools, sheltering displaced civilians, have been damaged in strikes in the last 48 hours, killing more than 40 people according to initial reports. The latest was a school in Jabalia refugee camp in the north of Gaza which was hit twice on Saturday, killing as many as 15 people including children, according to the health ministry.
The Independent asked the Israeli military for comment but has yet to receive a reply.
The World Health Organisation said that on Friday three hospitals and an ambulance convoy have come under fire, killing and injuring dozens of people, attacks it said might “violate international law”.
Gaza’s health ministry said two more people were killed on Saturday in a strike by the gate of Nasser Hospital in Gaza City, now the heart of the combat zone.
“At least one strike hit the school yard where there were tents for displaced families,” Juliette Toma, a UNRWA spokesperson said of Saturday’s strike on the UN school. “Another strike hit inside the school where women were baking bread.”
The UN-run school in the Jabaliya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip (Reuters)
The Israeli army has pounded Gaza from the air and sea, imposed a crippling siege and launched a ground assault, in retaliation for a deadly attack by Hamas on southern Israel when militants killed hundreds of people and took dozens hostage.
One month in, the widening offensive in Gaza has stirred global alarm as humanitarian conditions in the strip collapse: food is scarce and medical services are shuttering.
Civilians have told The Independent of risking their lives to queue for bread for hours, and drinking dirty water. Doctors have spoken about operating without anaesthetic and using washing up liquid to clean wounds.
Israel has repeatedly ordered Palestinian civilians, including the wounded in hospital, to evacuate to the south of the country, as it has intensified its strikes and pushed ground forces deeper into the besieged area.
US special envoy David Satterfield said that while up to 1 million people had moved to the south of the Gaza Strip, some 350,000 to 400,000 still remained in northern Gaza City and its environs that have now become an intense combat zone.
The United Nations has said for many, especially the wounded in hospitals, evacuating would be impossible. The Palestinian Red Crescent said Israeli forces hit a convoy of ambulances trying to head south twice on Friday resulting in dozens of deaths and injuries. Israel claimed responsibility for the attack saying they were targeting Hamas operatives that were hiding in ambulances.
Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Tal Al Hawa neighbourhood in Gaza City on Saturday (EPA)
But it has raised serious concerns about safe routes out for civilians.
Israel said on Saturday it would try to open a humanitarian corridor for civilians to evacuate from the north along central Salahuddin road after multiple reports the central and coastal roads to the south have been hit by Israeli tank fire and airstrikes.
Israel said the Saturday corridor attempt failed after their forces were attacked by Hamas militants.
Hamas “exploited the humanitarian window that the IDF provided to residents of the Gaza Strip to move southwards, and the terrorists fired mortars and anti-tank missiles at IDF troops who arrived and operated to open the route”, the army said.
Saturday’s meeting with Mr Blinken was convened by Jordanian foreign minister Ayman al-Safadi, who said the gathering was organised “in the context of their efforts aimed at stopping the Israeli war on Gaza and the humanitarian catastrophe it is causing”.
Washington has tried to speak with Israel, Arab states and international organisations on the future of Gaza and has dismissed ceasefires in place of seeking localised humanitarian “pauses”.
“A ceasefire now would simply leave Hamas in place, able to regroup and repeat what it did on October 7,” Mr Blinken said on Saturday as he engaged in frantic diplomacy in the region. He added: “No nation, none of us would accept that ... So it is important to reaffirm Israel’s right and its obligation to defend itself.”
But both Jordanian foreign minister Mr Safadi and his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry appeared reluctant to openly discuss those conversations and instead zeroed in on the need for a ceasefire.
“The international community’s responsibility always is to seek the cessation of hostilities, not promote the continuance of violence,” Mr Shoukry said. “I think we need to get our priorities straight. Right now we have to make sure that this war stops.”
Sameh Shoukry, left, Ayman Safadi, centre, and Antony Blinken in Amman on Saturday (Getty)
Mr Safadi added: “What happens next – how can we even entertain what will happen in Gaza when we do not know what kind of Gaza will be left.”
Arab states are also concerned by the risk of the conflict spreading into the region.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias backed by Iran have both launched attacks on Israel since 7 October, while Tehran-backed Iraqi Shia militias have been firing on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati – who was the first to meet with Mr Blinken – stressed the urgent need for a ceasefire in Gaza. Mr Mikati also said “Israeli aggression” in southern Lebanon must stop.
The US has grave concerns that Hezbollah, which has already stepped up rocket and cross-border attacks on northern Israel, will take a more active role in the conflict.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gave his first major speech since the 7 October attacks on Israel. He did not forecast his group’s greater involvement despite professing it was not perturbed by US attempts to deter it and threatened that the US would “pay the heaviest price” if it did not reign in Israel.
Israel's bombing of a refugee camp could be a turning point. Even its closest allies are expressing concern.
Charles R. Davis
Sat, 4 November 2023
The aftermath of an Israeli strike on the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza.REUTERS
Following Hamas's Oct. 7 massacre, President Joe Biden pledged US support for Israel.
But US officials are increasingly concerned about Israel killing Palestinian civilians.
An IDF attack on a refugee camp this week, which killed dozens, caused alarm in Washington.
After the October 7 massacre, what else was there to say, as an American president, except that Israel — like any country on Earth — has the right to defend itself?
"And let there be no doubt: The United States has Israel's back," President Joe Biden said while on a stop in the country, about 72 hours after 1,400 people there had been slaughtered, some tortured first, some burned alive. "These atrocities," Biden said, "have been sickening."
About a month later, more than 9,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are now dead, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry, most killed by one of the 10,000 bombs that Israel has dropped in its campaign to eliminate the militant group. At least 72 United Nations aid workers have also been killed, most inside their own homes, already far more than in any previous conflict.
Israel insists that, unlike Hamas, it does not target innocent people. But there can be no doubt that it is killing them, even if the militant group it's after shares the blame for using civilians as shields. And what the Israel Defense Forces considers a tolerable amount of "collateral damage" is not necessarily shared by its own allies.
A strike this week on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, for example, killed a senior Hamas commander, according to the IDF; it also killed dozens of civilians, prompting a UN official to suggest that Israel's actions may be "disproportionate" and tantamount to "war crimes."
It was also "jarring" to Israel's most important ally, according to CNN, which cited two sources familiar with the reaction in the White House, and may well mark a turning point in terms of US support for Israel — from steadfast, in the immediate aftermath of Hamas's butchery, to hesitant in the wake of Israel's savage response. Biden, in particular, "didn't like this at all," one person told CNN, referencing the attack on the refugee camp. The outlet noted that US officials have now repeatedly warned Israel, in private, that its killing of civilians, intended or not, is at the very least a strategic blunder that will leave the country isolated and endangered.
US concerns aren't just being expressed in private, though.
All along, even as it pledged weapons and moved its own military assets to the region, the Biden administration was publicly advising Israel to abide by international law, something you don't do if you think abiding by it is a given.
Operating under the theory that the best approach was that of a concerned friend, not one of Israel's many international critics, Biden himself warned Israel against being blinded by a desire for vengeance — "While you feel that rage, don't be consumed by it" — a warning he delivered as a piece of advice from a country that had failed to heed it itself: "After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. And while we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes."
But warnings, after four weeks of bombardment, have now become admonishments. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday said that Israel, frankly, needs to "do more to protect Palestinian civilians." While still defending Israel's right to defend itself, Blinken said that right does not mean anything the IDF does is acceptable. "As Israel conducts this campaign to defeat Hamas, how it does so matters," Blinken said, speaking just after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The White House is now calling for a "humanitarian pause" to the fighting, imploring Israel to allow more aid into the Gaza Strip, where the civilian population is in dire need of fuel, food, and medical supplies.
And while no one in the administration is suggesting, yet, that the United States will pull back from supplying the IDF with more weapons, the point it is arguing — that every Palestinian civilian's life matters and that each life that's ended erodes public support and damages Israel's long-term security — is being ably demonstrated by the criticism now being aired by those who consider themselves friends of the Israeli people.
Sen. Dick Durbin, an influential Democrat from Illinois, is now echoing his party's progressive wing in calling for a cease-fire, albeit on terms Hamas is unlikely to accept: releasing the 240 hostages it has in Gaza, first, in exchange for Israel pausing its air campaign. Even so, the emphasis on diplomacy — on ending a conflict that has "reached an intolerable level" of violence — is a marked departure from the immediate aftermath of 9/11 (America's or Israel's).
The number of people calling for a "pause" or "cease-fire," who can't be accused of apologism for terror, only grows each time Israel is itself accused of an atrocity.
"I share Israel's desire to destroy the threat from Hamas," Sen. Chris Murphy, a liberal Democrat from Connecticut, said this week. "But the way in which the current campaign is being waged — most recently evidenced by the terribly high human cost of the strikes on the Jabalia refugee camp — suggests that they have not struck the right balance between military necessity and proportionality."
The question, though, is what these concerned allies are going to do about it. Israel is led by a prime minister who has lost the confidence of his people, blamed for presiding over what may be the worst security failure in the country's history — a man accused of valuing first and foremost his own political "survival," and whose only redemption may well be in the form of Hamas being utterly destroyed, whatever the cost.
If Netanyahu ignores the private warnings and public advice and insists on driving his country into a moral and strategic abyss, will Israel's powerful friends step up and take away the keys?
Charles R. Davis
Sat, 4 November 2023
The aftermath of an Israeli strike on the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza.REUTERS
Following Hamas's Oct. 7 massacre, President Joe Biden pledged US support for Israel.
But US officials are increasingly concerned about Israel killing Palestinian civilians.
An IDF attack on a refugee camp this week, which killed dozens, caused alarm in Washington.
After the October 7 massacre, what else was there to say, as an American president, except that Israel — like any country on Earth — has the right to defend itself?
"And let there be no doubt: The United States has Israel's back," President Joe Biden said while on a stop in the country, about 72 hours after 1,400 people there had been slaughtered, some tortured first, some burned alive. "These atrocities," Biden said, "have been sickening."
About a month later, more than 9,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are now dead, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry, most killed by one of the 10,000 bombs that Israel has dropped in its campaign to eliminate the militant group. At least 72 United Nations aid workers have also been killed, most inside their own homes, already far more than in any previous conflict.
Israel insists that, unlike Hamas, it does not target innocent people. But there can be no doubt that it is killing them, even if the militant group it's after shares the blame for using civilians as shields. And what the Israel Defense Forces considers a tolerable amount of "collateral damage" is not necessarily shared by its own allies.
A strike this week on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, for example, killed a senior Hamas commander, according to the IDF; it also killed dozens of civilians, prompting a UN official to suggest that Israel's actions may be "disproportionate" and tantamount to "war crimes."
It was also "jarring" to Israel's most important ally, according to CNN, which cited two sources familiar with the reaction in the White House, and may well mark a turning point in terms of US support for Israel — from steadfast, in the immediate aftermath of Hamas's butchery, to hesitant in the wake of Israel's savage response. Biden, in particular, "didn't like this at all," one person told CNN, referencing the attack on the refugee camp. The outlet noted that US officials have now repeatedly warned Israel, in private, that its killing of civilians, intended or not, is at the very least a strategic blunder that will leave the country isolated and endangered.
US concerns aren't just being expressed in private, though.
All along, even as it pledged weapons and moved its own military assets to the region, the Biden administration was publicly advising Israel to abide by international law, something you don't do if you think abiding by it is a given.
Operating under the theory that the best approach was that of a concerned friend, not one of Israel's many international critics, Biden himself warned Israel against being blinded by a desire for vengeance — "While you feel that rage, don't be consumed by it" — a warning he delivered as a piece of advice from a country that had failed to heed it itself: "After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. And while we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes."
But warnings, after four weeks of bombardment, have now become admonishments. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday said that Israel, frankly, needs to "do more to protect Palestinian civilians." While still defending Israel's right to defend itself, Blinken said that right does not mean anything the IDF does is acceptable. "As Israel conducts this campaign to defeat Hamas, how it does so matters," Blinken said, speaking just after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The White House is now calling for a "humanitarian pause" to the fighting, imploring Israel to allow more aid into the Gaza Strip, where the civilian population is in dire need of fuel, food, and medical supplies.
And while no one in the administration is suggesting, yet, that the United States will pull back from supplying the IDF with more weapons, the point it is arguing — that every Palestinian civilian's life matters and that each life that's ended erodes public support and damages Israel's long-term security — is being ably demonstrated by the criticism now being aired by those who consider themselves friends of the Israeli people.
Sen. Dick Durbin, an influential Democrat from Illinois, is now echoing his party's progressive wing in calling for a cease-fire, albeit on terms Hamas is unlikely to accept: releasing the 240 hostages it has in Gaza, first, in exchange for Israel pausing its air campaign. Even so, the emphasis on diplomacy — on ending a conflict that has "reached an intolerable level" of violence — is a marked departure from the immediate aftermath of 9/11 (America's or Israel's).
The number of people calling for a "pause" or "cease-fire," who can't be accused of apologism for terror, only grows each time Israel is itself accused of an atrocity.
"I share Israel's desire to destroy the threat from Hamas," Sen. Chris Murphy, a liberal Democrat from Connecticut, said this week. "But the way in which the current campaign is being waged — most recently evidenced by the terribly high human cost of the strikes on the Jabalia refugee camp — suggests that they have not struck the right balance between military necessity and proportionality."
The question, though, is what these concerned allies are going to do about it. Israel is led by a prime minister who has lost the confidence of his people, blamed for presiding over what may be the worst security failure in the country's history — a man accused of valuing first and foremost his own political "survival," and whose only redemption may well be in the form of Hamas being utterly destroyed, whatever the cost.
If Netanyahu ignores the private warnings and public advice and insists on driving his country into a moral and strategic abyss, will Israel's powerful friends step up and take away the keys?
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