February 27, 2026
By Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Water scarcity is rapidly emerging as one of the most consequential threats to global security. This is particularly evident in regions already burdened by environmental stress.
The Middle East stands out as uniquely vulnerable due to its arid climate. Historically, conflicts in this region have been mostly explained in media outlets through ideological, sectarian, territorial and geopolitical lenses. However, environmental constraints can intensify tensions due to the fact they create new arenas of competition.
Water scarcity will likely become a primary catalyst of future conflicts, particularly in states such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen, unless governments urgently adopt comprehensive strategies to address this issue.
The consequences of inaction are multidimensional, including large-scale population displacement, internal unrest and a worsening of the economic situation.
The structural roots of water scarcity in the Middle East are complex. Without doubt, climate change has intensified existing environmental constraints, as it has caused higher temperatures and more prolonged droughts and increased evaporation rates. As a result, climatic shifts reduce the replenishment of surface water and groundwater alike.
In countries where agriculture remains a major contributor to national income, declining water availability not only threatens food security but also economic stability.
Desertification is also advancing across large swathes of the region. This is transforming productive land into barren terrain and forcing rural populations to migrate toward urban centers. In other words, the environmental dimension of water scarcity intersects with social, political and economic landscapes.
Another issue to focus on is that some Middle Eastern countries rely heavily on water sources originating beyond their borders. Iraq, for instance, depends overwhelmingly on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which originate in Turkiye and flow through Syria before reaching Iraqi territory. This means that, in the absence of binding regional agreements governing water allocation, competition over shared rivers can escalate into diplomatic crises or even military confrontations.
The Middle East has also experienced rapid population growth over the past several decades, with urban populations growing at especially high rates. It follows that expanding cities require vast quantities of water for consumption, sanitation and energy production.
At the same time, if the infrastructure is old and distribution systems are inefficient, this can result in substantial water losses. The problem is that water management policies are fragmented in some countries, with overlapping mandates and little coordination among organizations.
In addition, agricultural policies often prioritize short-term production goals over long-term sustainability.
When it comes to water scarcity, Iraq, Syria and Iran are badly affected. Iraq, in particular, is facing a dramatic decline in water availability due to several factors, including climate change, pollution and domestic mismanagement. Reduced river flow has also devastated agriculture, particularly in southern regions.
This has caused farmers, deprived of their livelihoods, to migrate to urban centers, increasing unemployment and placing additional pressure on public services. Water contamination resulting from industrial discharge and inadequate sanitation infrastructure has also produced severe public health crises.
If the situation continues, the implications for Iraq’s national security are profound. As water scarcity undermines agricultural production, the country becomes increasingly dependent on food imports. In addition, competition among provinces and ethnic groups over access to water resources can run the risk of intensifying internal divisions.
Meanwhile, Syria’s water infrastructure has been severely damaged by years of conflict, leaving many people without reliable access to clean water. Prolonged drought has devastated rural communities, contributing to migration. And Yemen’s water crisis is one of the most severe in the world, with groundwater depletion proceeding at an unsustainable pace.
Water scarcity amplifies existing sources of tension rather than acting as an isolated cause of conflict. In societies already divided along ethnic, sectarian or political lines, unequal access to water can deepen these divisions. In other words, water security has increasingly become inseparable from national security.
If governments fail to act decisively, the consequences could be severe. Firstly, large-scale displacement could overwhelm urban centers and neighboring countries, generating humanitarian crises with regional repercussions.
Secondly, declining agricultural output will lead to food shortages. This can provoke price spikes and social unrest.
Thirdly, interstate disputes over shared rivers could intensify. In the most severe cases, the combination of economic collapse, political instability and humanitarian emergencies could potentially lead to state failure.
Addressing the water crisis requires a multifaceted, multidimensional and cooperative approach. Regional water agreements are essential for managing transboundary rivers. In addition, infrastructure modernization — including the adoption of efficient irrigation technologies and wastewater recycling — can significantly enhance water productivity. This requires agricultural reform.
Technological innovations can also offer solutions, particularly when it comes to renewable energy integration. Expanding energy capacity powered by solar or wind energy could free up reliable water supplies. There should also be education programs and publicity campaigns to raise awareness of this issue, while promoting and encouraging water conservation.
Water scarcity will likely be a primary driver of future conflicts. In several countries in the Middle East, it is critical to recognize the urgency of this issue and address declining water resources.
By Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Water scarcity is rapidly emerging as one of the most consequential threats to global security. This is particularly evident in regions already burdened by environmental stress.
The Middle East stands out as uniquely vulnerable due to its arid climate. Historically, conflicts in this region have been mostly explained in media outlets through ideological, sectarian, territorial and geopolitical lenses. However, environmental constraints can intensify tensions due to the fact they create new arenas of competition.
Water scarcity will likely become a primary catalyst of future conflicts, particularly in states such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen, unless governments urgently adopt comprehensive strategies to address this issue.
The consequences of inaction are multidimensional, including large-scale population displacement, internal unrest and a worsening of the economic situation.
The structural roots of water scarcity in the Middle East are complex. Without doubt, climate change has intensified existing environmental constraints, as it has caused higher temperatures and more prolonged droughts and increased evaporation rates. As a result, climatic shifts reduce the replenishment of surface water and groundwater alike.
In countries where agriculture remains a major contributor to national income, declining water availability not only threatens food security but also economic stability.
Desertification is also advancing across large swathes of the region. This is transforming productive land into barren terrain and forcing rural populations to migrate toward urban centers. In other words, the environmental dimension of water scarcity intersects with social, political and economic landscapes.
Another issue to focus on is that some Middle Eastern countries rely heavily on water sources originating beyond their borders. Iraq, for instance, depends overwhelmingly on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which originate in Turkiye and flow through Syria before reaching Iraqi territory. This means that, in the absence of binding regional agreements governing water allocation, competition over shared rivers can escalate into diplomatic crises or even military confrontations.
The Middle East has also experienced rapid population growth over the past several decades, with urban populations growing at especially high rates. It follows that expanding cities require vast quantities of water for consumption, sanitation and energy production.
At the same time, if the infrastructure is old and distribution systems are inefficient, this can result in substantial water losses. The problem is that water management policies are fragmented in some countries, with overlapping mandates and little coordination among organizations.
In addition, agricultural policies often prioritize short-term production goals over long-term sustainability.
When it comes to water scarcity, Iraq, Syria and Iran are badly affected. Iraq, in particular, is facing a dramatic decline in water availability due to several factors, including climate change, pollution and domestic mismanagement. Reduced river flow has also devastated agriculture, particularly in southern regions.
This has caused farmers, deprived of their livelihoods, to migrate to urban centers, increasing unemployment and placing additional pressure on public services. Water contamination resulting from industrial discharge and inadequate sanitation infrastructure has also produced severe public health crises.
If the situation continues, the implications for Iraq’s national security are profound. As water scarcity undermines agricultural production, the country becomes increasingly dependent on food imports. In addition, competition among provinces and ethnic groups over access to water resources can run the risk of intensifying internal divisions.
Meanwhile, Syria’s water infrastructure has been severely damaged by years of conflict, leaving many people without reliable access to clean water. Prolonged drought has devastated rural communities, contributing to migration. And Yemen’s water crisis is one of the most severe in the world, with groundwater depletion proceeding at an unsustainable pace.
Water scarcity amplifies existing sources of tension rather than acting as an isolated cause of conflict. In societies already divided along ethnic, sectarian or political lines, unequal access to water can deepen these divisions. In other words, water security has increasingly become inseparable from national security.
If governments fail to act decisively, the consequences could be severe. Firstly, large-scale displacement could overwhelm urban centers and neighboring countries, generating humanitarian crises with regional repercussions.
Secondly, declining agricultural output will lead to food shortages. This can provoke price spikes and social unrest.
Thirdly, interstate disputes over shared rivers could intensify. In the most severe cases, the combination of economic collapse, political instability and humanitarian emergencies could potentially lead to state failure.
Addressing the water crisis requires a multifaceted, multidimensional and cooperative approach. Regional water agreements are essential for managing transboundary rivers. In addition, infrastructure modernization — including the adoption of efficient irrigation technologies and wastewater recycling — can significantly enhance water productivity. This requires agricultural reform.
Technological innovations can also offer solutions, particularly when it comes to renewable energy integration. Expanding energy capacity powered by solar or wind energy could free up reliable water supplies. There should also be education programs and publicity campaigns to raise awareness of this issue, while promoting and encouraging water conservation.
Water scarcity will likely be a primary driver of future conflicts. In several countries in the Middle East, it is critical to recognize the urgency of this issue and address declining water resources.
This article was published at Arab News
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh
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