Japan warns of dire finances as BOJ struggles to contain yields


Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki speaks at a news conference after Japan intervened in the currency market for the first time since 1998 to shore up the battered yen in Tokyo

Sun, January 22, 2023 
By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's finances are becoming increasingly precarious, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Monday, just as markets test whether the central bank can keep interest rates ultra-low, allowing the government to service its debt.

The government has been helped by near-zero bond yields, but bond investors have recently sought to break the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 0.5% cap on the 10-year bond yield, as inflation runs at 41-year highs, double the central bank's 2% target.

"Japan's public finances have increased in severity to an unprecedented degree as we have compiled supplementary budgets to respond to the coronavirus and similar issues," Suzuki said in a policy speech starting a session of parliament.

It is not unusual for the finance minister to refer to Japan's strained finances. Despite the country's growing debt pile, the government remains under pressure to keep the fiscal spigot wide open. Japan must balance regional security concerns over China, Russia and North Korea, and manage a debt burden more than twice the size of its $5 trillion economy - by far the heaviest burden in the industrialised world.

Market showed little reaction to Suzuki's speech, in which he explained the details of the coming fiscal year's state budget worth a record 114.4 trillion yen ($878.9 billion).

Suzuki reiterated the government's aim to achieve an annual budget surplus - excluding new bond sales and debt-servicing costs - in the fiscal year to March 2026. The government, however, has missed budget-balancing targets for a decade.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that every 1-percentage-point rise in interest rates would boost debt service by 3.7 trillion yen to 32.5 trillion yen for the 2025/2026 fiscal year.

"The government will strive to stably manage Japanese government bond (JGBs) issuance through close communication with the market," he said.

"Overall JGB issuance, including rolling over bonds, remain at an extremely high level worth about 206 trillion yen. "We will step up efforts to keep JGB issuance stable."

"Public finance is the cornerstone of a country's trust. We must secure fiscal space under normal circumstances to safeguard trust in Japan and people's livelihood at a time of emergency."

LABOUR REFORM

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida echoed Suzuki's resolve to revive the economy and tackle fiscal reform. He stressed the need for a positive cycle of growth led by corporate profits and private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy.

"Wage hikes hold the key to this virtuous cycle," Kishida said in his policy speech. He vowed to push labour reform to create a structure that allows sustainable wage growth and overcome the pain of rising living costs.

"First of all, we need to realise wage growth that exceeds price increases," Kishida added, pledging to also boost childcare support, and push investment and reform in areas such as green and digital transformation.

($1 = 129.5700 yen)

(Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by William Mallard and Jacqueline Wong)

16 objects from Germany tell story of Holocaust in new ways
 

KIRSTEN GRIESHABER
Tue, January 24, 2023

BERLIN (AP) — Lore Mayerfeld was 4 years old when she escaped from the Nazis in 1941. Together with her mother, the little Jewish girl ran away from her German hometown of Kassel with nothing but the clothes she wore and her beloved doll, Inge.

Mayerfeld found a safe haven in the United States and later immigrated to Israel. Her doll, a present from her grandparents who were killed in the Holocaust, was always at her side until 2018 when she donated it to Israel’s Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial.

More than 80 years later, the doll has returned to Germany. It will be at parliament in Berlin as part of an exhibition slated to open Tuesday evening just days before the country marks the 78th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz death camp on Jan. 27, 1945.

The exhibition, Sixteen Objects, also marks the 70th anniversary of the Yad Vashem memorial, bringing back to Germany an array of items Jews took with them when they fled the Nazis. There’s a black piano, a diary, a red-and-white-patterned towel, a stethoscope, a glitzy evening purse and a menorah among the exhibit’s objects.


They were chosen from more than 50,000 items at Yad Vashem that are connected to the Holocaust. The exhibit’s items represent Germany’s 16 states with one coming from each region. They all tell a unique story but share themes of love, attachment, pain and loss.

“These are all absolutely familiar German objects, and they would have stayed that way had the Holocaust not happened,” said Ruth Ur, the curator of the exhibition and Yad Vashem’s representative in Germany.

“The idea of this exhibition is to return these objects back to Germany for a short while, to bring a new energy to the objects themselves, and also to the gaps they have left behind.”

In one of the showcases, there’s a nondescript piece of cloth. It’s part of a flag that once belonged to Anneliese Borinski, who was part of a Jewish youth group in Ahrensdorf outside Berlin. She helped her group prepare for emigration and life in what would later become the state of Israel.

After the Nazis issued deportation orders, the 12 members decided to cut up their “Maccabi Hatzair” youth group flag into 12 pieces, and promised each other that after the war they would meet again in Israel to reassemble the flag.

Only three survived the Holocaust, and Borinski was the lone member who managed to take her piece of the flag to Israel. In 2007, her son donated it to Yad Vashem.

Another item is a brown leather suitcase. On one side, “Selma Sara Vellemann from Bremen” is written in bold white letters.

This suitcase was found in Berlin several years after the war. Yad Vashem researchers were unable to determine how the suitcase got to the German capital, but they discovered that a woman with the same name from the northern city of Bremen had lived in the retirement home in Berlin. In 1942, at the age of 66, she was deported to the Theresienstadt ghetto, and two months later sent to her death in the Treblinka extermination camp.

Beside each of the exibition objects, Ur and her team put up life-size photos of buildings and street corners where the items’ owners lived before the Nazis came to power. The images show modern-day scenes instead of historic ones, a stark contrast to the devastation the Third Reich caused decades ago.

Six million European Jews were killed by the Nazis and their henchmen during the Holocaust. Some survivors are still alive today, but their numbers are dwindling due to sickness and old age.

Mayerfeld, the little girl who fled with her doll Inge in 1941, is one of them. She returned to Germany this week to attend the opening of the exhibition.

Looking at her blond, blue-eyed doll, the now 85-year-old woman pointed out that the doll was wearing the pajamas she wore as a barely 2-year-old toddler on Nov. 9, 1938. On that date, she was hiding with her mother during Kristallnacht, or the “Night of Broken Glass,” when Nazis — several ordinary Germans among them — terrorized Jews, vandalized their businesses and burned more than 1,400 synagogues.

“It’s not a doll that you play so easily with because she’s breakable. So my own children, I didn’t allow them to play with her,” Mayerfeld said. “She sat up on a shelf in my home and they would look at her and I explained, she’s going to break, you know, just look and enjoy her.”

Mayerfeld said it was important for her to come back to Germany and let the public know about her doll, her life and also what happened during the Holocaust.

“The world hasn’t learned anything from this past war,” she said. “There’s so many people who say it never even happened. They can’t tell me that. I was there. I lived it.”

___

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

Dani Dayan, head of Israel's Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial poses after a news conference in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Jan. 23, 2023. An exhibition marking the 70th anniversary of Israel's Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial brings back to Germany a diverse set of everyday objects that Jews took with them when they fled the Nazis.

 (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

CAPITALI$M IS NOT SUSTAINABLE
Revealed: how US transition to electric cars threatens environmental havoc

42
Nina Lakhani Climate justice reporter
Tue, January 24, 2023 

Photograph: Dominick Sokotoff/REX/Shutterstock

The US’s transition to electric vehicles could require three times as much lithium as is currently produced for the entire global market, causing needless water shortages, Indigenous land grabs, and ecosystem destruction inside and outside its borders, new research finds.

It warns that unless the US’s dependence on cars in towns and cities falls drastically, the transition to lithium battery-powered electric vehicles by 2050 will deepen global environmental and social inequalities linked to mining – and may even jeopardize the 1.5C global heating target.

But ambitious policies investing in mass transit, walkable towns and cities, and robust battery recycling in the US would slash the amount of extra lithium required in 2050 by more than 90%.

In fact, this first-of-its-kind modeling shows it is possible to have more transport options for Americans that are safer, healthier and less segregated, and less harmful mining while making rapid progress to zero emissions.

The research by the Climate and Community Project and University of California, Davis, shared exclusively with the Guardian, comes at a critical juncture with the rollout of historic funding for electric vehicles through Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Acts.
Recognizing the harms of ‘white gold’

The global demand for lithium, also known as white gold, is predicted to rise over 40 times by 2040, driven predominantly by the shift to electric vehicles. Grassroots protests and lawsuits against lithium mining are on the rise from the US and Chile to Serbia and Tibet amid rising concern about the socio-environmental impacts and increasingly tense geopolitics around supply.Interactive

The US’s affinity for cars, especially big ones, and sprawling cities and suburbs where driving to work, school and shop is often the only option, gives its transition to electric vehicles major global significance.

No matter what path it chooses, the US will achieve zero emission transportation by 2050, according to the research. But the speed of the transition – as well as who benefits and who suffers from it – will depend on the number and size of electric vehicles (and batteries) Americans opt for going forward.

“Preserving the status quo might seem like the politically easier option, but it’s not the fastest way to get people out of cars or the fairest way to decarbonize,” said Thea Riofrancos, associate professor of political science at Providence College and lead author of the report.

“We can either electrify the status quo to reach zero emissions, or the energy transition can be used as an opportunity to rethink our cities and the transportation sector so that it’s more environmentally and socially just, both in the US and globally.”

“The report brings into light possibilities for a future without fossil fuels that minimizes mineral extraction and new harms to communities in lithium-rich areas,” said Pía Marchegiani, policy director at the Environment and Natural Resources Foundation in Argentina.

The GM Hummer EV at the North American international auto show in Detroit, Michigan, in September 2022. Photograph: Geoff Robins/AFP/Getty Images

Transportation is the biggest source of carbon emissions in the US – and the only sector in which emissions are still rising – making it crucial to phase out gas and diesel vehicles as quickly as possible to limit the climate breakdown.

Biden’s strategy to fully decarbonize the transportation sector by 2050 puts some focus on mass transit and land-use planning, but so far the messaging – and funds – have been geared toward encouraging Americans to swap gas-guzzling cars for electric vehicles rather than change the way they travel.

It’s working: over half of the nation’s car sales are predicted to be electric by 2030, and states like New York and California have passed laws phasing out the sale of gas cars.

This is good news but there’s a catch: lithium.

Electric vehicles are already the largest source of demand for lithium – the soft, white metal common to all current rechargeable batteries.

Mining lithium is a fraught business, and the rise in demand for EVs is contributing to a rise in social and environmental harms – and global supply chain bottlenecks.

If Americans continue to depend on cars at the current rate, by 2050 the US alone would need triple the amount of lithium currently produced for the entire global market, which would have dire consequences for water and food supplies, biodiversity, and Indigenous rights.

But it doesn’t have to be this way, according to the report Achieving Zero Emission Transportation With More Mobility and Less Mining.

Best scenarios for battery size, city density and public transit

Researchers created a novel modeling tool to compare the amount of lithium needed to achieve zero transport emissions for personal vehicles (cars, trucks and SUVs) under different scenarios. It’s the first study to project future lithium demand based on variables like car ownership, battery size, city density, public transit and battery recycling, and connect this with avoidable harms.

In each scenario, the US achieves zero emission transportation by 2050 and in each case some additional lithium mining will be needed.

How much lithium depends on policy decisions taken now, according to the report, impacting economic prosperity, public health, environmental justice, ecosystems and communities at every part of the supply chain for decades to come.

In the best-case scenario – comparing the status quo in which EV battery size grows and US car dependency remains stable – with ambitious public transit, city density and recycling policies, the lithium demand would be 92% lower. (Battery size, like the size of a fuel tank, dictates range – or how far you can travel before having to recharge.)

But results show that even if Americans can’t wean themselves off cars with big lithium batteries, increasing the density of metropolitan areas and investing in mass transit would cut cumulative demand for lithium between 18% and 66%. Limiting the size of EV batteries alone can cut lithium demand by up to 42% by 2050.Interactive

The largest reduction will come from changing the way we get around towns and cities – fewer cars, more walking, cycling and public transit made possible by denser cities – followed by downsizing vehicles and recycling batteries.

It can be done: cities around the world have already begun to reduce car use in order to improve air pollution, road safety and quality of life. In Paris, car use declined nearly 30% from 2001 to 2015, while in London it fell by nearly 40%.Interactive

And despite the cultural attachment to driving, fewer cars on the roads would not mean a sacrifice in the quality of life, convenience or safety for Americans, according to coauthor Kira McDonald, an economist and urban policy researcher.

“If the policies, institutions, and spending patterns that shaped our existing car dependent infrastructure and built environment change, then alternative modes of transportation can be made far safer, far more convenient, and faster than cars – and immensely more pleasant and fun.”
Protecting people and the planet

Lithium deposits are geologically widespread and abundant, but 95% of global production is currently concentrated in Australia, Chile, China and Argentina. Large new deposits have been found in diverse countries including Mexico, the US, Portugal, Germany, Kazakhstan, Congo and Mali.

Lithium mining is, like all mining, environmentally and socially harmful. More than half the current lithium production, which is very water intensive, takes place in regions blighted by water shortages that are likely to get worse due to global heating.

A sign against the exploitation of lithium is seen as tourists visit the Salinas Grandes salt flat. Photograph: Aizar Raldes/AFP/Getty Images

Despite being a relatively new industry, lithium extraction has a track record of land and water pollution, ecosystem destruction and violations against Indigenous and rural communities.

In the US, only one small lithium mine, in Nevada, is currently operational, but the drought-affected state has at least 50 new projects under development. This includes the massive Thacker Pass mine, approved at the end of the Trump administration, which is opposed by environmentalists, ranchers and Indigenous tribes due to the lack of consultation and inadequate environmental review.

In Chile and Argentina, the world’s second- and fourth-largest lithium producers respectively, broken promises by corporations, water scarcity, land contamination and the lack of informed consent from Indigenous groups has fueled resistance and social conflicts.

The lithium rush is already gathering pace, but keeping lithium mining to an absolute minimum is crucial for frontline communities – and it also makes good economic sense, according to the report.

Most forecasters predict a supply crunch in the next five to 10 years – a period when rapid decarbonization must take place to avert even more catastrophic global heating. The price of lithium batteries – the most expensive component of an EV – went up for the first time last year as demand outweighed supply.

Smaller batteries would make decarbonized transportation more affordable. In addition, expanding mass transit systems would improve pedestrian safety and air quality, generating health and economic benefits.

Payal Sampat, mining program director at Earthworks, said: “The findings of this report must jumpstart policies to invest in robust, accessible public transit systems that advance equity, reduce pollution and get people where they need to go.”

NO JUSTICE NO PEACE

Protesters gather outside SCOTUS Justice Brett Kavanaugh's home on 50th anniversary of Roe v. Wade ruling

I LIKE BEER SENATOR, DO YOU LIKE BEER 

Lorraine Taylor

FOX NEWS
Sun, January 22, 2023 

A group of pro-choice protesters gathered outside the home of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh on the 50th anniversary of Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion case.

The protesters converged on the sidewalk outside Kavanaugh's Chevy Chase, Maryland, home. The march appeared to be organized by the far-left group known as Our Rights DC.

The group tweeted a poster inviting members to participate in the march within the neighborhoods of Justice Kavanaugh and Chief Justice John Roberts.

The tweet then encouraged members to attend a fundraiser concert for the DC Abortion Fund.

Video taken outside Kavanaugh's home by The Daily Signal reporter Mary Margaret Olohan shows protesters carrying signs reading "our rights are not up for debate," "abortion saves lives" and "abortion is healthcare."

The group chanted as they marched in the rain, saying things like "cut his time short, a rapist should not rule the court," and "no privacy for us, no peace for you."

Several members of law enforcement could be seen standing nearby on Kavanaugh's property.

Kavanaugh's home has been the target of multiple protests in the past, which were sparked after a draft Supreme Court opinion was leaked indicating Roe v. Wade would be overturned.

ALCOHOLIC ANGRY WHITE MALE MISOGYNIST

Secret Brett Kavanaugh Documentary Sparks New Tips Almost Immediately After Premiering at Sundance

Virginia Chamlee
Mon, January 23, 2023

Supreme Court Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh attends his ceremonial swearing in in the East Room of the White House October 08, 2018 in Washington, DC. Kavanaugh was confirmed in the Senate 50-48 after a contentious process that included several women accusing Kavanaugh of sexual assault. Kavanaugh has denied the allegations.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty

New tips about Brett Kavanaugh began pouring in to filmmakers almost immediately after a surprise documentary about sexual assault allegations against the Supreme Court justice premiered at the Sundance Film Festival.

Justice, a film produced by Amy Herdy and directed by The Bourne Identity director Doug Liman, premiered at Sundance on Friday night. The premiere itself was a surprise, with the festival only revealing its addition to the lineup one day prior.

Within half-an-hour of that announcement being made, Herdy said in a post-screening Q&A that filmmakers had already begun "getting more tips," The Washington Post reports. Those tips, she added, came from people who had contacted the FBI with allegations against Kavanaugh ahead of his Supreme Court confirmation — but the claims were never further investigated.

Now, filmmakers are looking into the new claims, and re-editing the film to make additions ahead of a wider release.

RELATED: Christine Blasey Ford Speaks Out for First Time Since Kavanaugh Testimony

Kavanaugh, 57, ignited controversy in 2018 after former President Donald Trump announced his nomination to the high court, days after Justice Anthony Kennedy said he would retire in what was widely viewed as a shocking announcement.

Shortly after his nomination, Kavanaugh — a former federal appeals court judge — was faced with allegations that he sexually assaulted a former classmate while in high school.

Christine Blasey Ford accused Kavanaugh of pinning her down to a bed, groping her and trying to remove her clothes at a high school party in the early 1980s.

Ford, a research psychologist and professor at Palo Alto University, later testified under oath to the Senate Judiciary Committee about allegedly being sexually assaulted by the then-Supreme Court nominee when she was 15 and he was 17.

The FBI began a week-long investigation into the sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh — all of which the judge has denied — after Republican Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona dramatically asked Senate leadership to delay the full vote on his nomination for an FBI probe.

Though Democrats have long maintained that the findings of the investigation were unclear, Republicans argued they vindicated the judge, and the Senate ultimately confirmed Kavanaugh's nomination in a narrow 50-48 vote.

RELATED: Brett Kavanaugh's Yale Roommate Voices Support for New Accuser Deborah Ramirez: 'I Believe Her'

Rather than focus on Ford's accusations, which were the centerpiece of Senate hearings about Kavanaugh, the Justice documentary focuses on an allegation by a different woman, Deborah Ramirez, a classmate of Kavanaugh's at Yale University.

Ramirez went public with her allegation in a September 2018 report published by The New Yorker, telling the magazine that he exposed his penis, put it in her face, "caused her to touch it without her consent as she pushed him away" and laughed about it during a dorm room party when they were both freshmen in the 1983 to 1984 school year. Kavanaugh also denies Ramirez's claim.

While the FBI interviewed Ramirez, her attorneys have said the agency never contacted any of the witnesses who could have corroborated her story.

The Washington Post reports that, elsewhere in the documentary, there's a new allegation, via a voicemail left on the FBI tip line by Max Stier, who attended Yale with both Kavanaugh and Ramirez.

Stier, who is the CEO of the Partnership for Public Service, tells the FBI in the message that he witnessed another incident involving Kavanaugh "firsthand": when the inebriated future judge allegedly pulled his pants down at a party "while a group of soccer players forced a drunk female freshman to hold his penis," per the Post.

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In the years since Kavanaugh's confirmation, the FBI has disclosed that it received more than 4,500 tips in relation to the 2018 inquiry, and Democrats have criticized the agency for its handling of the investigation.

As a spokesperson for the FBI's national press office told the Post, the scope of the background investigation into Supreme Court nominees "is requested by the White House. The FBI does not have the independent authority to expand the scope of a supplemental background investigation outside the requesting agency's parameters."

The filmmakers behind Justice are collecting additional tips via their website, JusticeFilm.com.

If you or someone you know has been sexually assaulted, please contact the National Sexual Assault Hotline at 1-800-656-HOPE (4673) or go to rainn.org.

NO KURDS IN FINLAND

Finland Floats Solo NATO Entry After Erdogan Rejects Sweden

Leo Laikola and Selcan Hacaoglu
Tue, January 24, 2023 at 7:09 AM MST·4 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Finland for the first time opened the door to potentially decoupling its NATO application from that of Sweden, after its neighbor encountered fresh resistance from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The path floated by Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, if it becomes more serious, would mark a significant shift in Finnish policy since the Nordic nations jointly applied to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in May. Faced with continued objections from Turkey — mostly to what it sees as inadequate crackdown on Kurds in Sweden — the two Nordic countries had up to now insisted their applications be considered together.

It’s still unclear how much Finland will shift its approach. The stance remains for the two countries to enter NATO simultaneously, given security considerations, Haavisto told reporters in Helsinki on Tuesday, softening comments from earlier in the day, when he’d said Finland may need to prepare going it alone.

“A joint path to NATO is still possible,” Haavisto said, adding that “somewhere in the back of our minds we are considering options in case a country were to face permanent resistance.”

Turkey and Hungary are the only two of NATO’s 30 members who have yet to ratify the applications, and on Monday, Erdogan ruled out supporting Sweden’s bid after a far-right activist burned Islam’s holy book in Stockholm. In response to his comments, US officials reiterated their support for NATO’s expansion.

Erdogan’s comments injected new levels of doubt about Sweden’s prospects of joining the alliance, since the Turkish leader didn’t make clear whether he’s willing to change his stance. With an election slated for May, Erdogan is aiming to burnish his support from religious conservatives.

Still, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto sought to ease tensions. Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, he urged taking it “calmly” and said “undoubtedly it seems to be the case that we have to wait for the elections in Turkey to take place.”

Turkey had suggested processing Finland’s application separately at the beginning of the process because it did not have major issues with Helsinki, but the idea was opposed by both Nordic countries as well as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, two Turkish officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said Tuesday.

Turkey is largely happy with Helsinki’s cooperation with Ankara, which will be reflected in Turkey’s decision, they said, stopping short of saying whether the Turkish government would look favorably to quickly ratifying Finland’s bid if asked.

Joining NATO without Sweden would leave a large territory in Finland’s rear outside of the alliance, potentially risking supply routes and NATO’s ability to provide Article 5 security guarantees, Haavisto said. It would also entail rolling back some military cooperation the two counties have developed over the years.

“There is no ‘plan B’ to going it together,” Haavisto said. “That path hasn’t been considered possible, and that’s in part to do with how to plan our defenses. These Nordic defenses are very difficult to organize, looking at our long eastern border and considering the worst-case scenarios, and Sweden has a key role to play in how we organize these defenses.”

Hungary has said it plans to process the applications at the opening of parliament next month, though its timelines have shifted in the past. Approval by Budapest would leave Turkey as the lone holdout to the expansion, which NATO diplomats had hoped to finalize in time for the alliance’s summit in Vilnius in July.

Last summer, Turkey agreed in principle to NATO allies including the US inviting Sweden and Finland to join the group, but went on to demand concessions from Sweden. Those included a broader crackdown on Kurdish groups that Turkey considers terrorist organizations alongside the extradition of suspects.

Finland and Sweden both fulfill all NATO criteria and should be admitted, Haavisto said, adding that the delay “benefits the bloc’s opponents.”

Erdogan’s nationalist ally, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, said Turkey would not be satisfied even after the Swedish government condemned the burning of the Koran, which he said was a “grave attack against our religious and spiritual sensitivities.”

“Condemning it is not enough,” Bahceli said.

Sweden on Tuesday again insisted that it’s in compliance with an agreement hammered out at NATO’s June summit in Madrid last year, which allowed the expansion process to move forward.

“Protesters are toying with the security of Finland and Sweden in the current situation with actions that are clearly intended to provoke Turkey,” Finland’s Haavisto said. “This has become an obvious hindrance to the process.”

Finland guards a border with Russia roughly 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) long and has a history of wars with its eastern neighbor. It’s seeking to join NATO primarily to deter any future wars, and upholds a strong military to defend itself.

--With assistance from Anton Wilen, Jonas Ekblom, Ott Ummelas, Firat Kozok and Olesia Safronova.

IMPERIALISM'S EXCUSE FOR INVASION
Gang-related violence in Haiti has reached levels not seen in decades, UN chief says

Jacqueline Charles/jcharles@miamiherald.com

Jacqueline Charles
Tue, January 24, 2023

Over the past three months Haiti has seen some of its worst gang-related violence in decades, affecting the functioning of the judiciary, impeding the government, challenging the United Nations efforts to fight illicit trafficking and keeping children from going to school, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said in his latest report on the deteriorating situation.

Even neighborhoods of the capital that were once considered to be relatively safe have now fallen victim to the tightening grip of warring gangs. Just last week, residents of Petionville found themselves trapped in their homes as a gang ambush to the east left three police officers dead, another missing and a fourth injured, as a rise in kidnappings at the southern edge left people scared to go out.

Guterres’ three-month update of the situation in Haiti paints a deteriorating situation. The U.N. Security Council will take up the report Tuesday morning. Diplomats are looking for not just an update on the security situation, but Haiti’s progress toward staging elections to replace its president as well as both chambers of Parliament following the end of the terms of the country’s last 10 elected officials earlier this month.

In the report, the secretary general acknowledges that the elections calendar remains uncertain, despite a promise by interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry that 2023 will be an electoral year. Guterres noted that despite efforts by the interim government and the U.N. to stave off a worsening crisis and tackle many of the issues, including an ongoing cholera outbreak, their work has been impeded by the worsening gang violence and kidnappings.

He noted that over the last three months the political landscape in Haiti was shaped by three events: the establishment of a U.N. sanctions regime to implement travel bans, asset freezes and a targeted arms embargo against individuals engaging, directly or indirectly, with armed groups and criminal networks; the imposition of bilateral sanctions by the U.S. and Canada against several high-profile Haitian individuals, including a former president, two former prime ministers and two members of the current government, and the request by the Haitian government and the secretary general for the deployment of an international specialized armed force to assist the Haiti National Police.

Direct talks held in early October between Henry and a prominent member of the Commission for a Haitian Solution to the Crisis, otherwise known as the Montana Accord, “ultimately did not make tangible headway.” However, new consultations between the government and others members of civil society group and the business community yielded a document, the National Consensus for an Inclusive Transition and Transparent Elections.

Though signed by some groups, the document remains the target of criticism, with some political groups saying it has no validity and is there to shore up the little power Henry has.

The reporting period was also marked by a siege of the country’s main fuel terminal, Varreux, which exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in the country and led to the call for a specialized international force to assist the Haitian police. Such a force is still needed, Guterres said, despite the end of a two-month gang siege.

The National Port Authority and other commercial ports, for example, “remain under constant gang attacks.”

“Road transportation remains at risk, with cargo shipping containers and goods being regularly hijacked and stolen,” the report said. “Police continued to struggle to maintain patrols around the ports, while gangs retained control of most of the main transport thoroughfares linking Port-au-Prince with the northern and southern departments.”

This has also delayed implementation of U.N. efforts to assist Haitian authorities in fighting the illicit trafficking through a border management program being launched by the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime.

“It is vital that major roads and key facilities remain unobstructed to enable the State to function and protect the people of Haiti so that they may safely go about their daily lives,” Guterres said, reiterating his call for the deployment of international forces to help the Haitian national police.

The number of reported homicides for 2022 increased by 35.2% compared with 2021. The majority, nearly 82%, were in the West regional department that includes the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, where a former presidential candidate, Eric Jean Baptiste and the National Police Academy director, Harington Riguad, were among the victims late last year.

Kidnappings also saw a 104.7% increase, with 1,359 reported victims.

“Despite their determined efforts to curb crime and fight gangs, the overstretched, understaffed and under resourced police force has not been able, on its own, to deter the alarming rise in gang violence,” Guterres said in his report.

“Gang-related violence continued to undermine the functioning of the judicial system, affecting efforts to address the high rate of prolonged pretrial detention, among other activities,” according to the report.

The country’s main courthouse, the Court of First Instance of Port-au-Prince, attacked by gangs in mid-June, was still not under Haitian authorities’ control by the end of the year, the U.N. said. Another facility, the Court of First Instance of Croix-des-Bouquets, which was also attacked and set on fire by gang members, is still being temporarily housed in several government buildings in the neighboring city of Tabarre.

The U.N. reported that gangs continue to use sexual violence as a weapon to inflict terror and to punish and humiliate local populations. Their ultimate goal is to extend their control.

During gang clashes in Croix-des-Bouquets in October, at least 40 women were raped by heavily armed gang members.

“The women were deliberately targeted because they lived in an area controlled by a rival gang. Women and girls also continued to be highly exposed to rape while traveling along roads controlled by gangs,” the U.N. said.

That gang violence has also spilled out into other areas. Of the 10 regional departments in Haiti, only two have at least 90% of their schools open—the Nippes and South departments. In the north, where families are struggling against higher costs of living after a decrease in remittances from abroad and double digit inflation, only 17% of schools are open.

“The situation remains grave,” Guterres said.

The secretary general said the security crisis in Haiti is not just affecting daily life but the development of human capital because of the population’s severely limited access to education and employment.

He also noted that the average cost of a food basket, which consists of common foods the population eats such as rice and beans, has increased to nearly 63%, leading to a rise in hunger among almost half of the people in the population of nearly 12 million.

“The unpredictable security situation has hampered agricultural activities, prevented the supplying of markets and slowed down ongoing investment, especially in small-scale trade, the main source of income for a large part of the population,” he said. “People’s livelihoods continue to erode, and humanitarian partners face great difficulty in gaining access to the most vulnerable populations.”

The number of people in an emergency situation, meaning deep hunger, rose by more than 35.5%, with one in 20 residents in Port-au-Prince’s Cité Soleil living in famine -like conditions. These trends are likely to continue if the level of humanitarian assistance does not increase, the secretary general said, noting that the hunger crisis is now compounded by the expanding cholera epidemic.

The U.N. and international and national humanitarian partners are facing increasing difficulties in reaching beneficiaries throughout the country to provide water, food and health care because major roads remain blocked by gangs, the secretary general said. For example, National Road 2, linking the capital to the quake-recovering southern peninsula, has been blocked by gangs since June 2021, cutting off at least 3 million people from Port-au-Prince, the country’s economic center.

“The blockade undermines freedom of movement and further contributes to inflation and jeopardizes livelihoods. More recently, the northern departments have also become increasingly isolated from the capital,” Guterres wrote.

That has made getting fuled to the areas difficult. For instance, along the road connecting Ouanaminthe in the northeast to Cap-Haïtien in the north, fuel is sold only in gallons on the roadside, if it’s available at all. The city of Cap-Haïtien, which just hosted a major international jazz festival that relocated from the capital because of the violence, has been in a total blackout for over a year, residents said.

“Amid the ongoing cholera outbreak, the lack of fuel has further undermined access to health services owing to restrictions on movement and to the impact of fluctuations in the supply of water and electricity on the functioning of medical facilities,” the U.N. report said.

The turf battles between heavily armed gangs, while not occurring everywhere, is nevertheless having an impact on the human-rights situation, especially in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince and in the Artibonite and North departments, the report details.

“Gangs are increasingly targeting local populations, deliberately killing, injuring and committing acts of sexual violence during coordinated armed attacks to expand their territorial control.”

U.N. Palestinian refugee agency appeals for $1.6 billion in funding

UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, speaks during an interview with Reuters in Amman

Tue, January 24, 2023 

GENEVA (Reuters) - The U.N. agency that delivers basic services to millions of Palestinian refugees appealed on Tuesday for $1.6 billion in funding after its head warned it was struggling to fulfil its mandate due to spiralling costs and shrinking resources.

Established in 1949 following the first Arab-Israeli war, UNRWA provides public services including schools, primary healthcare and humanitarian aid in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.

"Compounding challenges over the last year including underfunding, competing global crises, inflation, disruption in the supply chain, geopolitical dynamics and skyrocketing levels of poverty and unemployment among Palestine refugees have put immense strain on UNRWA," the agency said in a statement.

UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini told Reuters in November that the agency's financial woes could result in it no longer being able to fulfil its mandate, which last month was renewed by the U.N. for another three years.

(Reporting by Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, editing by Ed Osmond)

 FT Letter: 

India’s hydrogen plan is model for how to grow and stay green

From Anil Trigunayat, Former Indian Ambassador, New Delhi, India

Reading Benjamin Parkin’s “India powers ahead with plans for a green hydrogen ecosystem” (Inside Business, January 18), I wish to add a certain nuance to the author’s view. India is set to witness the largest increase in energy demand of any country globally over the next two decades.

As India’s economy swells, in tandem with its population, the country will need to add a power system equivalent in size to that of the entire EU, according to the International Energy Agency. Given its resources, the country could easily have chosen to take the same coal-intensive approach as other rapidly modernising nations, such as China, to guarantee its industrial transition.

Yet instead it is opting for a far more balanced approach: to pursue clean energy technologies to power its industrialisation. Indeed, green hydrogen is one of package of technologies which also includes biofuels, traditional renewables and natural gas. This is unprecedented for a country of its size, and India is charting a new path for developing countries, especially those large ones whose quick pace of industrialisation implies vast energy demands. India has often reiterated its commitment to phasing out fossil fuels to the maximum possible extent, and we are already seeing it lay the foundations for doing this once it has built the energy infrastructure needed to power its economy.

If India strikes the right balance, other developing nations will follow. No country so far has solely relied on renewable energy to build its industrial capacity, and India’s early exploration of green hydrogen production is a testament to its leaders’ pioneering approach. India is hosting its first global energy conference next month, India Energy Week, where it promises to shed light on its strategy. I encourage energy experts from across the developing world in particular to come and take stock of its progress.

Anil Trigunayat

Former Indian Ambassador

New Delhi, India

Clean energy gains a foothold in India, but coal still rules







Farmer Pravinbhai Parmar stands near solar panels installed at a farm in Dhundi village of Kheda district in western Indian Gujarat state, India, Friday, Jan. 13, 2023. Parmar has been using solar power for irrigation and sells the excess electricity to the state's grid to earn additional income. 

(AP Photo/Ajit Solanki)

SIBI ARASU and MARY KATHERINE WILDEMAN
Sun, January 22, 2023

BENGALURU, India (AP) — For six years, Pravinbhai Parmar's farm in Gujarat state in western India has been lined with rice, wheat and solar panels.

The 36-year-old is among a handful of farmers in his native Dhundi village who have been using solar power to irrigate crops.

“I was spending nearly 50,000 rupees ($615) every year to water my crops,” said Parmar. “With solar I spend nothing."

Parmar also sells the excess electricity to his state’s grid, earning an average of 4,000 rupees ($50) a month.

"It’s a win-win in every way,” he said.

Thousands of farmers have been encouraged to take up solar power for irrigation in the agriculture-rich state as India aims to reach ‘net zero’ by 2070. But livelihoods powered by clean energy are major outliers in the country that’s the third-largest emitter of planet-warming gases in the world, and last year announced its biggest-ever auction for coal mines.

Coal’s share in producing electricity for Gujarat fell from 85% to 56% in the last six years, according to analysis by London-based energy think tank Ember. The share of renewable energy for the state grew from 9% to 28% in the same period.

But Gujarat is just one of four of India's 28 states that met their renewable energy targets for 2022. Most states have installed less than 50% of their targets and some states such as West Bengal have installed only 10% of their target.

Nationwide fossil fuels generate more than 70% of India’s electricity and have been doing so for decades. Coal is by far the largest share of dirty fuels. Renewable energy currently contributes about 10% of India’s electricity needs.

From 2001 to 2021, India installed 168 gigawatts of coal-fired generation, nearly double what it added in solar and wind power combined, according to an analysis of Ember data. India’s federal power ministry estimates that its electricity demand will grow up to 6% every year for the next decade.

“The challenge of reducing the share of coal in the electricity generation mix is particularly acute because you are dealing with a sector that is growing rapidly,” said Thomas Spencer, energy analyst at the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

Spencer said India’s quickly developing economy and growing electricity consumption per capita is causing rising demand.

“Historically, countries that have achieved substantial and rapid transitions away from coal-fired power tend to have had either slowly growing or stagnant or even slightly declining electricity demand,” he added.

A report by the Global Energy Monitor ranks India among the top seven countries globally for prospective renewable power. The planned buildout of 76 gigawatts of solar and wind power by 2025 will avoid the use of almost 78 million tons of coal annually and could lead to savings of up to 1.6 trillion rupees ($19.5 billion) per year.

India missed its target to install 175 gigawatts of renewable energy to its overall power production by 2022. Experts say that to meet its 2030 renewable energy target of installing a total of 450 gigawatts, India needs to build out clean energy at a far greater rate than it is doing now.

The Indian government has repeatedly defended its use of coal and its energy transition strategy, stating that the fuel is necessary for the nation's energy security. Coal India limited, a government-owned company, is the largest state-owned coal producer in the world. It's responsible for about 82% of the total coal produced in India.

In November last year, the Indian government announced its biggest ever auction for coal mines, inviting bids for 141 mines spread across 12 states in the country. The government says the additional mines will contribute to its target of producing 1 billion tons of coal by April 2024.

Analysts say multiple obstacles include acquiring land for clean energy projects in part due to resistance from local communities. Longstanding contracts with coal plants also make it easier for state-run electricity companies to buy coal power instead of clean power.

As of December 2022, Indian state-owned electricity distribution companies owed power generators $3.32 billion in overdue payments. Their poor financial health has dampened their ability to invest in clean energy projects, analysts say.

Building energy storage, enacting more progressive policies — such as the $2.6 billion government scheme that encourages making components required to produce solar energy — and ensuring these policies are being implemented is essential to speed up a move toward renewables, analysts say.

“New laws such as the energy conservation bill as well as updated mandates issued by the federal government that make it necessary for electricity companies to purchase renewables provide hope,” said Madhura Joshi, an energy analyst at the climate think tank E3G. “At the end of the day what is needed is speeding up the installation of renewables and associated infrastructure.”

She added: “It’s great that India has a 2070 net zero target, but changes need to happen now for us to achieve this. We must build out our renewables capacity at a great speed.”

Experts say that electricity distribution companies need to allow for more rooftop solar installations even if it results in short-term economic losses for them. Investing in modernizing and building new wind energy projects will also speed up the transition, analysts said.

“Ultimately in India, renewable energy is a highly cost-effective technology. The perception that coal is cheap is changing,” said Spencer.

The price of renewable energy has plummeted. The cost of solar power has dropped roughly sixfold from 12 rupees (14 cents) per kilowatt-hour in 2011 to 2.5 rupees (0.03 cents) per kilowatt-hour in recent years.

Aditya Lolla, an energy policy analyst at Ember, is optimistic for India's clean energy future, saying renewables are “at the cusp” of skyrocketing. He believes battery storage for renewables to provide uninterrupted electricity and clean fuels — such as green hydrogen — will grow at a rapid pace.

“Storage technology for clean energy as well as green hydrogen is expected to become affordable in the coming years," Lolla said. “India is betting big on that.”

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Wildeman reported from Hartford, Connecticut.

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Follow Sibi Arasu on Twitter at @sibi123

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

IMPERIALI$M'S MONETARY FUNDS
China offers Sri Lanka debt moratorium, IMF help still in doubt


Tue, January 24, 2023 at 2:04 AM MST·3 min read
By Devjyot Ghoshal and Uditha Jayasinghe

NEW DELHI/COLOMBO (Reuters) -The Export-Import Bank of China has offered Sri Lanka a two-year moratorium on its debt and said it will support the country's efforts to secure a $2.9 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, according to a letter reviewed by Reuters.

Regional rivals China and India are the biggest bilateral lenders to Sri Lanka, a country of 22 million people that is facing its worst economic crisis in seven decades.

India wrote to the IMF earlier this month, saying it would commit to supporting Sri Lanka with financing and debt relief, but the island nation also needs the backing of China in order to reach a final agreement with the global lender.

However, China's Jan. 19 letter, sent to the finance ministry, may not be enough for Sri Lanka to immediately gain the IMF's approval for the critical loan, a Sri Lankan source with knowledge of the matter said.

According to the letter, China EximBank said it was going to provide "an extension on the debt service due in 2022 and 2023 as an immediate contingency measure" based on Sri Lanka's request.

At the end of 2020, China EximBank had loaned Sri Lanka $2.83 billion which is 3.5% of the island's debt, according to an IMF report released in March last year.

"You will not have to repay the principal and interest due of the bank's loans during the above-mentioned period," the letter said.

"Meanwhile, we would like to expedite the negotiation process with your side regarding medium and long-term debt treatment in this window period."

Sri Lanka owed Chinese lenders $7.4 billion, or nearly a fifth of its public external debt, by the end of last year, calculations by the China Africa Research Initiative showed.

"The bank will support Sri Lanka in your application for the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to help relieve the liquidity strain," China's letter said.

One Sri Lankan source, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the confidential discussions, said the island nation had hoped for a clear assurance from Beijing on the lines of what India provided to the IMF.

"China was expected to do more," the source said, "This is much less than what is required and expected of them."

DEBT SUSTAINABILITY

In a letter directly addressed to the IMF, India said last week that the financing or debt relief provided by Export-Import Bank of India would be consistent with restoring debt sustainability under the IMF-supported program.

Another government source with direct knowledge of the talks told Reuters that Sri Lanka would likely share China's letter with the IMF and seek their opinion on its contents.

"That may be the best way to understand if this is in line with the IMF's expectations or stronger assurances are needed," the source said.

It is unclear what debt relief major lenders such as China - the world's largest bilateral lender - and India are willing to make further down the line.

Western countries such as the United States and multilateral lenders are pressing Beijing to offer debt relief to emerging economies in distress, and have criticised Beijing for slow progress.

However, news from Zambia on Monday suggests China could be playing a more proactive role. Speaking in the capital Lusaka, the head of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva said the lender had reached an understanding in principle with China about plans to restructure Zambia's debt.

China will de facto accept NPV (net present value) reduction on the basis of significant stretching of the maturities and reduction of interest, Georgieva said.

Sri Lanka's foreign and finance ministries and China's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to questions from Reuters.

Sri Lanka's central bank chief P. Nandalal Weerasinghe said on Tuesday that the country hoped for assurances from China and Japan, another major bilateral lender, soon and complete debt restructuring in six months.

(Reporting by Devjyot Ghoshal and Uditha Jayasinghe; additional reporting by Karin Strohecker, Editing by Jacqueline Wong, William Maclean)

Ukrainian officials dismissed in Zelenskiy's biggest shake-up of war

Olena Harmash and Tom Balmforth
Tue, 24 January 2023 

Deputy head of Ukraine's Presidential Office Tymoshenko before talks with the Russian delegation in Istanbul


By Olena Harmash and Tom Balmforth

KYIV (Reuters) - A slew of senior officials were dismissed on Tuesday in Ukraine's biggest political shake-up of the war so far that Kyiv said showed President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was in tune with his public following corruption allegations.

A long-running battle against corruption in Ukraine has taken on vital significance as Russia's invasion has made Kyiv heavily reliant on Western support and it pursues a bid to join the European Union.

The clear-out of over a dozen officials as Russia's invasion enters its 12th month came days after the arrest of a deputy minister suspected of graft and allegations that were denied by the Defence Ministry and sparked an outcry.

"The president sees and hears society. And he directly responds to a key public demand – justice for all," Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior Zelenskiy adviser, wrote on Twitter.

The outgoing officials include five regional governors, four deputy ministers and a senior presidential office official seen as close to Zelenskiy, who had announced on Monday there would be "personnel decisions - some today, some tomorrow".

Some of the changes had been planned for a while, but were precipitated by a sudden spate of negative headlines, Kyiv-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said.

"This is simultaneously an intensification of the fight against corruption, and a reaction from the president ... to critical articles in the media," Fesenko told Reuters.

Some of the announcements appeared linked to corruption accusations while others were entirely unrelated.

The shake-up was made all the more striking coming amid a deep freeze in domestic politics that has held throughout the war as political rivalries were largely set aside to focus on the fight for national survival.

'WORTHY DEED'

Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov tendered his resignation after a local media report over the weekend accused the defence ministry of paying inflated prices for supplies of food, an old trick used by corrupt officials to skim off money.

The ministry said the allegations were groundless but that the resignation of Shapovalov, who was in charge of army supplies, was a "worthy deed" that would help retain trust in the ministry.

As the shake-up unfolded in a series of announcements, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told a cabinet meeting that Ukraine was making progress in its anti-corruption campaign. "It is systemic, consecutive work which is very needed for Ukraine and is an integral part of integration with the EU," he said.

The governors of the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson were among those on their way out. Technically, Zelenskiy still needs to publish a decree finalising their sacking.

The president's office said it had accepted the resignation of Kyrylo Tymoshenko as its deputy head. He gave no reason for his exit.

The 33-year-old worked on Zelenskiy's election campaign and had been in his post since 2019, overseeing the regions and regional policies. He had been criticised by local media for driving flashy cars during the invasion, though he denied wrongdoing and said the vehicles had been rented.

Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko, who had come under fire in local media for holidaying with his family in Marbella in Spain during the war, was removed from his post. Symonenko has not commented publicly on those allegations.

Zelenskiy said in his nightly speech on Monday that officials would no longer to be able to travel abroad for purposes unrelated to government work.

(Additional reporting by Max Hunder; writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Timothy Heritage and Mark Heinrich)