Stability AI CEO Says Most Coders in India Will Lose Jobs Within a Year or Two

Robert Carnevale
Tue, July 18, 2023


Indian coders’ days are numbered, the CEO of Stability AI Emad Mostaque says. Based on his estimate, most outsourced coders in the country will be out of a job within a year or two as artificial intelligence allows for far greater work to be done by fewer people. That reality coupled with the nation lacking the protective labor laws of certain other countries means Indian coders are likely to be in a tricky situation relatively soon.

Mostaque highlighted the impact AI will have on coders Level 3 and under, citing their skill level and type of job as being key reasons why artificial intelligence is coming for them specifically. “If you’re doing a job in front of a computer, and no one ever sees you, then [AI is] massively impactful, because these models are like really talented grads,” Mostaque said, sharing his thoughts in a call with UBS analysts, as reported by CNBC.

Meanwhile, Mostaque acknowledged that countries with heavily pro-worker labor laws, like France, will not see these sorts of shakeups since the workers are legally protected from such situations. With that said, he still predicted that there will be no more traditional coders in five years’ time.

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Reps for Stability AI told TheWrap they had nothing to further to add to CNBC’s report.

Stability’s CEO isn’t the only one feeling that artificial intelligence is the wave of the future and could disrupt certain sectors. Disney CEO Bob Iger is also bullish on AI and has his legal teams working overtime to figure out how they can effectively incorporate artificial intelligence into Disney’s operations.

Furthermore, the CEO of U.K. energy supplier Octopus Energy, Greg Jackson, has been incorporating AI into his company’s customer service department and it’s been doing the jobs of hundreds of employees all with better customer satisfaction rankings than the company’s human workers. While layoffs were not likely for Octopus Energy’s staff as a result of AI’s successes, that may not be the case for workers of other companies, as evidenced by Mostaque’s forecast for Indian coders.

Also Read:
Bob Iger Is ‘Bullish’ on AI Prospects at Disney: ‘Our Legal Team Is Working Overtime’

A top AI expert says most outsourced coders in India will be out of a job in 2 years thanks to the technology


Kai Xiang Teo
Tue, July 18, 2023 


Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque thinks AI will eliminate most outsourced coding jobs in India.


This isn't the first time he made such a bold call.


He previously said AI would make most programmers obsolete in 5 years.

AI will soon eliminate most outsourced coding jobs in India as the technology will drastically reduce the need for them, according to a leading AI expert.

India's "outsourced coders up to level three programmers will be gone in the next year or two, whereas in France, you'll never fire a developer," Emad Mostaque, the CEO of Stability AI, said in a call with UBS analysts, attributing these differences to better workers' protections in France.

The comments were reported by CNBC on Tuesday.

There are about five million coders based in India, according to an April 17 Bloomberg report.

This isn't Mostaque's first bold claim about AI. In an interview on the Moonshots and Mindsets podcast posted on June 29, Mostaque — whose company created Stable Diffusion, a tool that transforms text into AI-generated art — predicted AI could replace most programmers in five years.

He later caveated his comment saying he was specifically referring to traditional coders.

Tech jobs are one of the professions most likely to be replaced by AI, Insider's Aaron Mok and Jacob Zinkula previously reported.

But not everyone shares Mostaque's pessimism.

GitHub's CEO Thomas Dohnke told Computer Weekly last year that AI could help developers be more productive. "It's so much more attractive to have an AI assistant with you, instead of reading stacks of books or wiki articles."

Additionally, workers with AI skills stand to gain as the tech industry is placing a greater focus on talent in this area, Insider's Thomas Maxwell reported.

Emad Mostaque did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider.

How much will Kenya's tax protests destabilize the country?



Diego Mendoza
Wed, July 19, 2023 

Kenya was rattled by massive protests against tax hikes Wednesday, a day after opposition leader Raila Odinga ordered his supporters to take to the streets for three days of demonstrations.

Meanwhile, Kenyan President William Ruto said that the opposition is merely using the tax debate to blanket their real grievance of Odinga losing the 2022 election.

Previous protests contesting Ruto’s election have already led to more than 300 arrests and several deaths, with international actors and religious leaders warning that the country is spiraling into unprecedented civil violence.

We’ve curated insights and reporting on how the demonstrations will impact the country.
Insights

“Enough is enough,” Nation Media Group told both Ruto and Odinga, arguing in an editorial that both men are at fault “if the country goes the way of failed states.” The media company did not validate or dissect claims by any party, rather arguing that the personal ”supremacy contest" between the two men is an “appalling leadership failure.”

Former first lady Mama Ngina Kenyatta has been propped up by supporters of Ruto as a key negotiator that could help settle some of the protesters’ qualms. She “understands that such protests affect traders negatively and subsequently hurts the economy” one anti-protest trader told Kenyans, an online news agency. But security has also reportedly been scaled back from her and former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s home in the wake of the protests, Kenyans reports.

The protests are threatening Kenya’s much-needed tourism industry, with travel agencies reporting massive cancellations across the country. 3.1 million Kenyans are directly employed in the sector, and tourism is the country’s third-biggest source of foreign exchange. —

Kenyans have not seen the fulfillment of promises such as free education in return for higher taxes, argues economist Joy Kiiru, which has angered protesters for years. Meanwhile, corruption is more evident than ever, she claims. “Why in a country that is struggling like Kenya do public officials drive high-end vehicles?” Kiiru told Citizen TV.

The protests are as much about the high cost of living in Kenya as they are about the tax hikes, according to Semafor’s Muchira Gachenge. The current regime won by only a slim margin after campaigning on lowering daily costs. But a year later, the price of basic commodities is at an all-time high, motivating many to hit the streets. Businesses have been severely affected in the capital of Nairobi, with traders shuttering their stores in fear of opportunistic looting and destruction, Gachenge says, adding that further protests will put more pressure on the economy.

Police in Kenya open fire on activists protesting new taxes. At least 12 people are wounded


EVELYNE MUSAMBI
Updated Wed, July 19, 2023 

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Police in Kenya opened fire on protesters in clashes that left at least 12 people wounded Wednesday as the opposition organized demonstrations calling for the government of President William Ruto to lower the cost of living.

The opposition called for three days of countrywide protests aimed at forcing the president to repeal a finance law imposing new taxes. Ruto had vowed that no protests would take place, saying he would take opposition leader Raila Odinga “head-on.”

Four protesters were injured in the Mathare area of the capital, Nairobi, according to a police officer who spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the media. The Associated Press witnessed one man shot in the shoulder and two others shot in the leg in Mathare.

In Nairobi's Kangemi area, health records worker Alvin Sikuku told the AP that two young men had been brought into the Eagle Nursing Home clinic. “Police are using live bullets,” he said. One man was shot in the back and severely wounded, and the other was shot in the leg. “We don't yet know if they were protesting or just walking by,” Sikuku said.


In the city of Nakuru, Nakuru Referral Hospital Medical Superintendent James Waweru confirmed that four people came in with gunshot wounds, two of them shot in the abdomen, one in the chest and another one in the leg. A fifth person had been cut and wounded.

The Interior Ministry said more than 300 people were arrested during Wednesday’s protests and that they will be charged with crimes including looting, destroying property and assaulting police.

The opposition in a statement condemned the arrests of seven elected leaders and two close associates of Odinga, calling it a “desperate attempt” by the Ruto administration to paralyze the opposition.

Businesses and schools in Nairobi were closed as police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse protesters.

Demonstrations were reported in several other parts of the country including the western counties of Kisumu, Migori and Kisii where the opposition enjoys huge support.

Police had said the protests were illegal as no permit had been issued, but the right to peaceful protests is enshrined in the Kenyan constitution.

The opposition has said protests would continue Thursday.

Last week’s protests killed at least 10 people, according to watchdogs, with a police officer confirming at least six to the AP. Many others were injured, including 53 children who went into shock after tear gas was thrown inside their school compound.

Religious leaders have called for dialogue between the government and the opposition to end the protests. Catholic bishops on Wednesday issued a statement reiterating that “no further blood should be shed” and urged the president to repeal the newly passed Finance Act that has agitated many Kenyans.

The law has raised the price of fuel to its highest level as the government implements a doubling of value added tax on petroleum products to 16%. The prices have taken effect despite a court order suspending the implementation of the controversial new taxes.

A Nairobi resident, Wycliffe Onyango, said his entire earnings are spent on food. “Right now there is no work going on. We are suffering. I plead with the government to deal with the cost of living,” he added.

The International Monetary Fund this week called the law's approval a “crucial” step toward reducing Kenya’s debt vulnerabilities.

Western envoys from 13 countries on Tuesday issued a joint statement calling for dialogue and expressed concern over the loss of lives and destruction of property.

The Kenya Medical Association said its members had attended to “hundreds of injured Kenyans and witnessed tens of fatalities” as a result of protests in recent months, and access to health facilities was limited for patients and workers, leading to increased mortality.

Human Rights Watch urged political leaders to stop labelling protesters as “terrorists” and respect the right to peaceful protests. The group also called out the police for using force and live bullets to confront protesters.

___

Associated Press writer Cara Anna and photographer Brian Inganga contributed to this report.

Kenya Azimio demonstrations: 'I feel betrayed by William Ruto'

Basillioh Rukanga - BBC News, Nairobi
Wed, July 19, 2023 

A protester kneels on road while wearing a shirt with the slogan ''Ruto is not my president'' during a countrywide protest

Kenya's police have been battling protesters in the latest opposition protests against the rising cost of living and tax hikes, with at least 24 people having been shot dead in recent months.

During last year's presidential election, James Wainaina, a taxi driver in the capital, Nairobi, voted for William Ruto, who portrayed himself as the candidate of what he called the "hustler nation" - ordinary people struggling to get by.

But now Mr Wainaina feels betrayed and supports the protests.

Since President Ruto came to office, prices have continued to soar, while his government has raised taxes.

Mr Ruto says the extra revenue is needed for escalating debt repayments and to fund projects to create jobs, but the tax rises have made life even harder for the poorest Kenyans.

Mr Wainaina's daughter, a high school student, recently stayed at home for three weeks because he was unable to pay her 14,000-shilling ($100; £75) school fees.

Mr Wainaina says his business has declined because of the cost-of-living crisis.

He gets fewer clients and nearly all his earnings now go into simply keeping his car on the road.

Five years ago, he could make up to 4,000 shillings a day, enough to cover his basic necessities, including school fees, he says.

He laments there are times he now goes home with just 500 shillings after expenses "which is not enough to fuel the car the next day".

"It is very difficult for us," he says. The government, he adds, has not made it easy for small businesses, especially the "hustlers" .

Mr Wainaina says they were lied to.

"It doesn't seem like things will be better, you see [the president] lied to us, we are being oppressed, things are becoming difficult. When the cost of fuel goes up, the price of everything else goes up, even electricity. Things are becoming worse."

Even those who still support the government are expressing "a considerable level of unhappiness with the current state of affairs", according to the latest survey by a local polling firm, Tifa.

Its survey shows that 56% of Kenyans think the country is heading in the wrong direction, up from 48% in March.

The polling firm suggests the discontent may be feeding into support for the protests called by the Azimio opposition coalition, led by Raila Odinga, who was defeated by Mr Ruto last year.

At least 24 people have been killed in recent protests

Government data show that the prices of some key food products have risen considerably in the 12 months to June - with the staples - maize, grain and flour - increasing by up to 30%, rice and potatoes by nearly 20% and sugar costing nearly 60% more.

Despite that, in the finance bill which became law on 1 July, the government doubled the value-added tax on fuel products from 8% to 16%, and introduced a 1.5% housing levy on employees' basic pay, with an equivalent amount paid by the employer.

The levy is supposed to go to a fund to construct homes for the less well-off while creating jobs.

Besides that, taxes on sales (Turnover Tax) were tripled to 3% for small businesses, and income tax for high-earning employees was raised from 30% to a maximum of 35%.

The government defends the new taxes - now temporarily suspended by a court - as necessary because of the country's high debts.

It accuses the previous administration of massively adding to the country's debt burden by spending huge amounts of money on infrastructure projects that did not help the ordinary Kenyan.

Mr Ruto served in the previous government as deputy president, but he distanced himself from it after falling out with then-President Uhuru Kenyatta.

He and government officials have told Kenyans that paying the taxes is a short-term "sacrifice" for the future of the country.

But Mr Wainaina is not convinced. Likewise, Edwin Simiyu, a boda boda (motorcycle taxi) rider in Kiambu town near the capital regrets voting for the current administration.

"[The president] said we should give him one year and then we'd see positive changes. Now when he is in, he changes the tune and says we should wait for years before things become better. We are suffering, we have been totally betrayed, we've been forgotten," he says.

Charles Kaindo is hard at work in the same town selling second-hand clothes on a pavement.

The hawker tells the BBC it is unfortunate the government has broken its promises.

He says there will be a time when people will say "enough is enough" - explaining that hard-working people will turn to crime and others "may even take their lives when the suffering becomes too much".

Charles Kaindo says the government broke its promises

But not everyone thinks that higher taxes are a bad thing.

Jane Njeri, an accountant in the private sector, says she does not envy the government - which needs the money to pay off the huge debts that Kenya owes.

The Kenya shilling has been steadily weakening against the US dollar in recent months, making the cost of debt repayments even higher.

"It's not going to be an overnight thing. We are at a bad place, depreciating shilling, debt and unemployment," she says.

The disquiet in Kenya arises from the "sense of contradiction" between the "hustler narrative" about easing the cost of living that was sold during the campaign and the "reality where we are seeing taxes being increased on everyday goods", according to Ken Gichinga, chief economist at business consulting firm Mentoria Economics.

He says rather than focusing on consumption taxes that raise the cost of living, the government should do more to spur private-sector growth.

He argues against the government housing projects being funded by the new levy, saying it is unlikely to resolve either the housing or unemployment problem.

"Lower interest rates, lower taxation, and loosen regulation. Do those three and the whole economy will be able to create jobs. Let the free market work."

However, economic analyst Odhiambo Ramogi says he is convinced that that the president's intentions are noble - though the methods "are wrong".

He says the government should first cut waste before asking ordinary Kenyans to pay more.

The government accepts this point - David Ndii, its chief economic adviser, has acknowledged on Twitter that the government was "wasteful".

Ndindi Nyoro, chairman of the parliamentary budget committee, told the BBC that the government's tax plan was to ensure that government was not digging a bigger debt hole by borrowing more. He said the focus was on creating a balance to ensure what "will make Kenyans take part in baking the national cake".

But a growing number of Kenyans do not think this is working and are taking to the streets to make their point.

Photographer Brian Inganga contributed to this report.

Kenya Protests

Riot policemen fires teargas during clashes with protesters in the Kibera area of Nairobi, Kenya Wednesday, July 19, 2023. Kenyans were back protesting on the streets of the capital Wednesday

MONARCHISTS, GENERALS DENY MOVE FORWARD

Pita Limjaroenrat: Thai reformist leader who won election will not be PM

Derek Cai & Thanyarat Doksone - in Singapore & Bangkok
Wed, July 19, 2023 

Supporters cheered as Pita Limjaroenrat left the parliamentary chamber after being suspended

Thai reformist Pita Limjaroenrat's bid to be nominated prime minister has ended, prompting outrage from his supporters after he won May's election.

The 42-year-old was first dramatically suspended from parliament by the constitutional court, forcing him to leave the debating chamber.

Lawmakers then agreed to block a second vote on whether he should be PM.

The Move Forward party leader had swept to victory in the general election as voters rejected years of military rule.

But to seal his victory, he needed the approval of parliament - which he failed to secure last week, plunging the country into political limbo.

The constitutional court must now decide whether he should be disqualified from parliament for owning shares in a long-defunct media company.

"I would like to say goodbye until we meet again," Mr Pita said, raising his fist as he left the floor of the assembly to cheers from party allies.

Mr Pita, a Harvard graduate and former tech executive, won on the promise of major reforms, including a pledge to amend lese-majeste, Thailand's strict royal defamation laws, pitting him against the unelected senate and other conservatives who say he poses a threat to the monarch.

Move Forward supporters outside parliament have seen their hopes for change scuppered

Outside parliament, Move Forward supporters wondered what the point of the election had been.

"Why ask people to go to the polls? Why don't you just pick someone from your families to be the prime minister?" asked one man, AFP news agency reported.

"Pita is not wrong at all. He did everything right," a woman said.

Before he was forced to leave parliament, Mr Pita had said he would stop working as an MP until the court made its decision.

"I think Thailand has changed and will never be the same since 14 May," he said, referring to the date of his election victory.

"The people have won halfway, there's another half to go."

Uphill battle


Mr Pita needed the votes of more than half of the 749 members in parliament's two chambers to become prime minister.

Last week, he secured only 324 votes, 51 short of the required 375. He had a clear majority from elected MPs in the lower house, but not from the upper house.

He always faced an uphill battle, as there was little evidence that the 249 upper house senators would support him. They were all installed by the military leaders of a 2006 coup as a brake on any democratic outcome that the military and royalists were uncomfortable with.

Move Forward is popular among young Thai voters who wanted to end nearly a decade of conservative military rule.

Art Chaturongkul, a 39-year-old living in Bangkok, said he and fellow supporters are deeply concerned as they see Mr Pita as representing their voices in the parliament.

"I'm filled with mixed emotions. Utter rage, frustration, and disappointment. It feels like a setback to the democratic process," he had earlier told the BBC.

Move Forward has formed a coalition government with seven other parties, including Pheu Thai, the second most popular party in the May election.

Many young voters switched to voting for Move Forward because Pheu Thai had been unwilling to rule out doing deals with the military.

Pro-establishment campaigners have sought to block Mr Pita from taking the reins of power after the shock election results in May.

Two cases have been filed against him in the conservative-leaning Constitutional Court. Alongside the one for which he was suspended, the other complaint claims Move Forward's proposal to amend lese-majeste laws - which have seen hundreds of critics of the monarchy jailed - amounts to an attempt to an overthrow Thailand's entire political order.

There is a precedent for what is happening now. In the 2019 elections, Future Forward - the predecessor to Move Forward - was dissolved by the Constitutional Court after it was found to have violated electoral rules.

Since 2008, it has also dismissed three PMs aligned with former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was toppled by a 2006 coup.

Ironically his party, Pheu Thai - which has been on the receiving end of nearly all of the Constitutional Court's rulings - is now poised to benefit from this latest ruling against its coalition partner.

There is no love lost between Pheu Thai and Move Forward, particularly as the former has taken the latter's mantle as a champion of democracy.

But despite winning the election, Mr Pita may have to accept not only giving up the top job, but having no place at all in the new government.

Additional reporting by Jonathan Head

Turmoil in Thailand as rivals derail election winner's PM bid






Updated Wed, July 19, 2023
By Chayut Setboonsarng and Panarat Thepgumpanat

BANGKOK (Reuters) -The leader of Thailand's election-winning Move Forward Party met fresh obstacles in his prime ministerial bid on Wednesday, as a court suspended him as a lawmaker and rivals successfully scuttled his re-nomination in parliament.

U.S.-educated liberal Pita Limjaroenrat has an extremely difficult path to the top job and must overcome fierce resistance from a royalist military at odds with his party's anti-establishment ambitions.

After more than seven hours of debate on a challenge to Pita's candidacy before a planned parliamentary vote on Wednesday, lawmakers voided his nomination, with opponents arguing a motion for him to be endorsed as premier had already been rejected when he was defeated in last week's vote.

As the debate ensued, the Constitutional Court separately announced Pita had been suspended as a lawmaker over an allegation he violated election rules by holding shares in a media firm, taking on its second case against him in six days.

The suspension does not bar Pita from running for premier but it was not immediately clear whether his eight-party alliance would seek to re-nominate him, by filing a different motion.

The 42-year-old had told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday that he was expecting "pre-planned" obstacles, describing efforts by the establishment to stop him as like a "broken record".

Thailand has been run by a caretaker administration since March and 65 days have passed since Move Forward's stunning triumph over military-backed parties in a May election, in what was widely considered a clear public rejection of nine years of government controlled by generals.

"Thailand is not the same since May 14. We have come halfway from the people's victory and there is another half to go," a smiling Pita told the house as he acknowledged the court's suspension order, receiving fist-bumps and applause.

POWER STRUGGLE

Wednesday's drama was the latest twist in a two-decade battle for power between elected parties and Thailand's conservative military establishment, which has seen political bans, court interventions, two coups and huge, at times violent street protests.

A constitution drafted by the military after a 2014 coup and skewed in its favour ensured that Pita was blocked in the first vote by the junta-appointed Senate, which has served as a bulwark against elected politicians and can effectively torpedo attempts to form governments.

Hundreds of Pita's supporters gathered peacefully in Bangkok to protest against the efforts to stop him, some carrying signs denouncing senators.

"I feel angry. They didn't respect the people's will," said protester Wilasini Sakaew, 21. "They didn't listen to the voices of 14 million people."

The progressive Move Forward ran a disruptive election campaign in which they mastered social media to target and win over millions of urban and young voters, promising bold institutional reforms to upend the conservative status quo.

But its agenda has put it on a collision course with powerful, conservative interests, demonstrated by the legal cases against him and a determined effort by rival legislators from the outgoing, army-backed government to keep him at bay.

After the vote to void Pita's nomination, senior officials from Move Forward and alliance partner Pheu Thai said they would arrange a meeting to decide their next move.

The planned prime ministerial vote was expected to be Pita's last, having announced that he would step aside if he fails and let political heavyweight Pheu Thai field its candidate in a third round.

"It is now clear that in the current system, winning public approval is not enough to run the country," Pita posted on Instagram during the debate.

(Reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat, Panu Wongcha-um and Chayut Setboonsarng; Writing by Martin Petty; Editing by Robert Birsel)

Thai Court Suspends PM Hopeful Pita’s Status as Lawmaker



Anuchit Nguyen
Tue, July 18, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- A Thai court Wednesday suspended Pita Limjaroenrat’s status as a lawmaker, in the latest roadblock to the pro-democracy leader’s quest to become the country’s next prime minister.

The Constitutional Court suspended Pita as a lawmaker, while accepting to hear a case brought on by the poll panel for a full disqualification. The Election Commission had previously found the Move Forward Party’s leader to be in breach of election rules.

--With assistance from Napat Kongsawad.


US concerned about developments in legal system after Thailand election

 Thailand's parliament votes for a new prime minister

Mon, July 17, 2023
By Simon Lewis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is concerned about developments in Thailand's legal system, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Monday, after two separate complaints against the leader of the party that won the most seats in a May 14 election.

Thailand's parliament is preparing a second vote on Wednesday on whether Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the progressive Move Forward party, can become prime minister.

An initial vote last week for Pita - who wants to remove the military from politics and dismantle business monopolies, among other changes - was thwarted by a Senate appointed by the royalist military following a 2014 coup.

U.S. officials have said little about the post-election developments in Thailand, a longstanding military ally in a region where Washington is wary of China's growing influence.

Miller, asked at a regular press briefing about the situation in Thailand, said Washington does not have a preferred outcome in the Thai election, but supports a process that reflects the will of the Thai people.

"We are very closely watching the post-election developments - that includes the recent developments in the legal system, which are of concern," Miller said.

Thailand's Constitutional Court has accepted a complaint against Pita and Move Forward over a plan to change a law that prohibits insults against the royal family. The election commission has also recommended the same court disqualify Pita over ownership of shares in a media company in violation of electoral rules.

The cases have raised concerns the court could disqualify Pita from office or dissolve Move Forward, as it did in 2020 with the party's predecessor Future Forward.

Asked to comment on those possibilities, Miller said he would not "speculate about how we might react to events that have not yet occurred" but repeated that recent developments were of concern.

(Reporting by Simon Lewis; editing by Grant McCool)

India's Tata will build a $5-billion new electric car battery factory in the UK

Tata Sons chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran speaks during the launch of electric SUV Nexon EV in Mumbai, India, Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2020. India's Tata Sons plans to build a 4-billion-pound ($5.2 billion) electric car battery factory in the U.K., the conglomerate said Wednesday, july 19, 2023. "Our multibillion-pound investment will bring state-of-the-art technology to the country, helping to power the automotive sector’s transition to electric mobility, anchored by our own business, JLR (Jaguar Land Rover),” Tata Sons chairman Chandrasekaran said.

 (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool, File) 

Associated Press
Wed, July 19, 2023 

LONDON (AP) — India's Tata Sons plans to build a 4-billion-pound ($5.2 billion) electric car battery factory in the U.K., the conglomerate said Wednesday. The plant is expected to become one of Europe's largest battery cell manufacturing sites when it begins production in 2026.

Britain's government said the new factory, the largest investment in the U.K. automotive industry in decades, will create 4,000 jobs directly and thousands more in supply chains.

The plant is expected to produce about 40 gigawatt hours of battery cells every year, enough to provide half the U.K.'s electric vehicle batteries, Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps said.

“Our multibillion-pound investment will bring state-of-the-art technology to the country, helping to power the automotive sector’s transition to electric mobility, anchored by our own business, JLR (Jaguar Land Rover),” Tata Sons chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran said.

The new plant will supply batteries to other brands as well as JLR.

Britain's government reportedly offered substantial financial subsidies to attract the industrial giant to invest in the country, but officials declined to comment, saying it was commercially sensitive information.

Carmaker Stellantis, which owns Vauxhall, Peugeot and other European car brands, warned in May that it would struggle to make electric cars in the UK because of the changes to trading relations under the Brexit deal.

The carmaker wrote to Parliament that it would face 10% tariffs when exporting electric vehicles to Europe, and said it was vital to “reinforce the competitiveness of the U.K. by establishing battery production."

India's Tata chooses UK for $5 billion Jaguar Land Rover gigafactory


A member of staff checks the paintwork on Range Rover bodies as they pass through the paint shop at Jaguar Land Rover’s factory in Solihull


Updated Wed, July 19, 2023 
By Alistair Smout, Muvija M and Nick Carey

LONDON/GAYDON, England (Reuters) -India's Tata Group will build an electric vehicle battery plant in Britain to supply its Jaguar Land Rover factories, delivering a major boost for a UK car industry in need of domestic battery production to help secure its future.

The announcement marks Britain's biggest move in the car gigafactory space as it seeks to keep up with the United States and European Union in the race to develop green industries.

Tata said on Wednesday it would build its first gigafactory outside of India in Britain with an investment of 4 billion pounds ($5.2 billion), creating up to 4,000 jobs and producing an initial output of 40 gigawatt hours.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government declined to outline the financial support it had promised Tata to fend off Spain, which had also lobbied to win the project.

During a visit to a JLR facility on Wednesday, Sunak said the investment was a "fantastic vote of confidence" in Britain's economy, adding that the UK had provided targeted investment.

"We're actually well on our way to providing the EV capacity that the country needs," he said.

Energy minister Grant Shapps told the BBC that the support package was "large" but would not directly reach 1 billion pounds, adding that details of the deal would follow later due to commercial sensitivities.

Britain has lagged European rivals in building electric vehicle (EV) battery gigafactories, with more than 30 planned or under construction across the EU. Britain currently has one small Nissan plant and another in the works.

The new plant is expected to be built in Somerset, south-west England, while Jaguar Land Rover's UK factories are near Birmingham, in central England, reflecting the need for heavy batteries to be built near their car plants.

Production is due to start in 2026 to supply JLR's future battery electric models, including the Range Rover, Defender, Discovery and Jaguar brands.

With an initial output of 40 gigawatt hours, Britain said the factory would provide almost half of the battery production it needed by 2030. The Faraday Institution predicts Britain will need more than 100 GWh a year by that time.

The announcement comes with Britain at a critical stage in free trade talks with India, and Tata Sons Chairman N Chandrasekaran said the plan strengthened the company's commitment to the UK and thanked the government for working "so closely with us to enable this investment."

LIFELINE

Industry figures welcomed the announcement as a lifeline to a sector that otherwise risked being left behind as other countries offer subsidies to support electric carmakers.

Under net zero goals Britain plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, and under post-Brexit rules automakers will also need to source more EV components locally to avoid tariffs on UK-EU trade from 2024.

Major automakers including Vauxhall-owner Stellantis and Ford warned in May that the looming rules risked making Britain unviable for future investment, prompting the government to say it was trying to ease them.

The failure of an EV startup, Britishvolt, in January also underlined the difficulties of establishing a home-grown industry amid a shortage of suitable sites.

Investment minister Dominic Johnson said the factory "really does move the needle and acts as a massive beacon for the global car industry to say that the UK is back in business."

"Hopefully we're going to be returning to our peak level car production over the next five to 10 years," he told Reuters.

He added that when Britain lost out on Tesla's European gigafactory in 2019 the government decided: "We're never going to let that happen again."

"We were absolutely focused on winning this investment," he said. "As soon as it got out that we may be in the running to win this amazing investment, we started to get some quite interesting inquiries from other companies."

SUBSIDY RACE

Britain has previously expressed concerns over the United States' promise of hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for green industries.

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt, who has said that Britain will not go toe-to-toe on subsidies, declined to give details on any UK financial support for Tata but acknowledged Britain's need to attract big projects.

"We're in competition with countries all over the world for these big investments," he said.

Andy Palmer, former CEO of Aston Martin and current chairman of EV battery maker InoBat, told BBC radio government subsidies were needed to keep Britain competitive.

"Almost every car producing nation in the world (is) offering a lot of incentives," he said.

Shares in Tata Motors shares rose 1.3%, outshining the broader index in India which was up 0.4%.

($1 = 0.7716 pounds)

(Reporting by Alistair Smout and Muvija M in London and Nick Carey in Gaydon, additional reporting by Sarah Young, Andrew MacAskill and William James, Editing by Paul Sandle and Emma Rumney)

SEE

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2023/07/jaguar-land-rover-expected-to-build-new.html

The American Public's Views on Israel Are Undergoing a Profound Shift. Washington Hasn't Caught Up

Yasmeen Serhan
Wed, July 19, 2023 

ISRAEL-US-POLITICS-DIPLOMACY
Flags of Israel and the U.S. are hung up along streets by the Jerusalem municipality on July 10, 2022, ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Israel. 

Credit - Ahmad Gharabli—AFP via Getty Images

When Israeli President Isaac Herzog addresses a joint session of the U.S. Congress on Wednesday, there will be some notable absences. At least five progressive U.S. lawmakers, including Reps. Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jamaal Bowman, and Cori Bush, confirmed that they will be skipping Herzog’s speech in protest of Israel’s policies toward Palestinians in the occupied territories, which some Democrats recently described as “racist” and akin to apartheid.

While these Democrats may be in the minority among their congressional peers, their positions are more mainstream than the D.C. establishment might suggest. Polls this year have shown that the gap between the American public and those elected to represent them is widening when it comes to U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly among Democrats. This year, for the first time, an annual Gallup survey found that Democrats’ sympathies lie more with Palestinians than Israelis by a margin of 49% to 38%. The survey found that sympathy toward Palestinians among U.S. adults is at a new high of 31%, while the proportion not favoring either side is at a new low of 15%. That’s a remarkable shift from only a decade ago, when sympathy toward Palestinians stood at just 12%. During that same period, sympathy toward Israelis has declined from 64% to 54%.

Other recent surveys, carried out by researchers at the University of Maryland and Ipsos, reveal similarly noteworthy trends. A new poll published on the eve of Herzog’s address found that, in the absence of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, three-quarters of Americans would choose a democratic Israel that is no longer Jewish over a Jewish Israel that denies full citizenship and equality to non-Jews. The U.S. and the wider international community are still officially committed to a two-state solution, but many experts believe it’s no longer viable as a result of Israeli settlement expansion.

Americans are also increasingly less likely to describe Israel as a democracy. When asked to describe the way Israel looks in a poll conducted between March and April, only 9% of respondents chose “a vibrant democracy,” a common descriptor for Israel among U.S. officialdom. The rest chose “a flawed democracy” (13%), “a state with restricted minority rights” (7%), and “a state with segregation similar to apartheid” (13%). Some 56% responded with “I don’t know.” Shibley Telhami, a Middle East expert at the University of Maryland who conducted the poll, tells TIME that the percentage of “don’t knows” was surprising. He says that this suggests that those polled “are either uncertain or they’re uncomfortable answering.”

These shifting opinions coincide with a particularly tense period in Israel, which over the past year has been marked by unprecedented and sustained protests against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government’s efforts to weaken the judiciary, the sole administrative check on their power. It has also featured an uptick in violence in the occupied Palestinian territories, which have been subject to deadly raids and, in the case of Huwara, what one Israeli general described as a “pogrom” carried out by Israeli settlers. The violence has resulted in the killing of at least 174 Palestinians this year, according to the U.N., putting 2023 on course to become the deadliest for Palestinians on record since the body began recording the number of fatalities in 2005. At least 23 Israelis have been killed in the occupied territories during the same period.

While lawmakers such as Tlaib (the first Palestinian American woman elected to Congress) and Omar have long been critical of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians—they were banned from visiting the country in 2019—disquiet over Israel’s rightward shift has been growing among Democratic lawmakers in recent years, including among traditionally pro-Israel politicians on Capitol Hill. “We have always said that the U.S.-Israel relationship is built on shared interests and on shared values, but clearly we do not share the values of someone like Ben-Gvir,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a leading Democratic lawmaker on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Israeli newspaper Haaretz following a recent visit to the country, referencing one of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners.

Read More: Biden’s Hidden Birthday Message for Israel

And it’s not just politicians. Noura Erakat, an associate professor at Rutgers University and author of Justice For Some: Law and the Question of Palestine, tells TIME that there has been a “serious shift” across academic associations, the arts, and other social justice movements when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “There is now clear and robust support and understanding of Palestine as a freedom struggle,” she says.

There has also been a notable shift within the American Jewish community, where the subject of Israel has become more polarizing in recent years. A 2021 Pew survey found that while more than half (58%) of American Jews express an attachment toward Israel, markedly fewer approve of its government’s leadership (40%) or its efforts toward achieving peace with the Palestinians (33%).

But this disquiet has yet to manifest itself within Washington—a reality that was best exemplified in recent days by the uproar over comments made by Rep. ​​Pramila Jayapal, the Democratic chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, who came under fire for referring to Israel as a “racist state.” Jayapal ultimately walked back her comments—explaining that she doesn’t believe the “idea” of Israel as a nation is racist, but that the discriminatory policies perpetuated by its government are—though not before being denounced by congressional Republicans (some of whom dubbed the remarks “anti-Semitic”) and many of her own Democratic colleagues. A resolution affirming that Israel “is not a racist or apartheid state” was passed by the House of Representatives on Tuesday, with 412 lawmakers in support and 9 against.

Nor has this shift been acknowledged within the White House. Despite President Joe Biden’s criticism of Netanyahu’s governing coalition—one composed of ultranationalist and pro-settlement leaders that the President described as “one of the most extremist” he’s seen—his administration has resisted calls to leverage U.S. aid to Israel or to ensure that U.S. funding isn’t used in the military detention of Palestinian children. On Monday, Biden extended an invitation to Netanyahu for a face-to-face meeting in the U.S. after months of delays, though it is as yet unclear if such a meeting would take place in the White House.

U.S. lawmakers are undoubtedly aware of this widening gap. “They would have to have their heads buried in the sand not to see a world changing around them,” says Erakat. But American public opinion doesn’t always dictate U.S. policy, nor is this issue as front of mind as more pressing foreign policy concerns, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“Obviously, policymaking is not just about public opinion,” says Yousef Munayyer, a senior fellow at the Arab Center in Washington, D.C. and an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “In the United States in particular, it’s about elections, it’s about interest groups, and it’s also about American geopolitical interests. And all of those things coming together have made it easier for American policymakers to hold on to the old pro-Israel policies than to be responsive to a base that is increasingly calling for change.”

The question is how long that remains sustainable. “This is going to continue to shake the U.S.-Israel relationship,” Munayyer adds. “When exactly that translates into policy change is not something we can tell.”

Democrats are increasingly divided on Israel as its president visits Washington

Israeli President Isaac Herzog is expected to give an address to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday.

Alexander Nazaryan
·Senior White House Correspondent
Updated Wed, July 19, 2023 

WASHINGTON — The visit of Israeli President Isaac Herzog to Washington this week is exposing the growing divisions between moderate and progressive Democrats when it comes to the Jewish state.

Herzog is the top opposition figure in the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has tried to institute highly unpopular reforms that would curb the power of the generally liberal judiciary branch.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog speaks to the media following a meeting with President Biden at the White House on Tuesday. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Violence between Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank is also escalating, with younger militants taking advantage of the Palestinian Authority’s eroding credibility among a stateless and impoverished people.

Herzog met with President Biden on Tuesday. On Wednesday he will give an address to a joint session of Congress. His appearance on Capitol Hill is proving especially divisive, revealing the widening gulf among Democrats.

Read more from Yahoo News: Israel’s democracy crisis explained

A progressive boycott

Rep. Cori Bush, D-Mo., at a press conference in Washington on June 22.

 (Paul Morigi/Getty Images for Just Majority)

Several members of the informal progressive House caucus known as "the Squad" have said they would boycott Herzog’s speech on Wednesday. Squad members also boycotted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he addressed Congress last month.

The boycott of Herzog’s address is being led by Reps. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, both of whom are Muslim. Tlaib is of Palestinian descent.

“The Israeli government is responsible for enforcing an apartheid state and rampantly abusing the rights of Palestinians. Congress should not be giving a platform to the President of a country that shows no respect for human rights. I will not be attending his joint address,” tweeted Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri, who has joined the boycott. So have Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

On Saturday, Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington state, leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, called Israel a “racist state” during a gathering of activists in Chicago. The remark caused widespread outrage, including from some Democrats, and Jayapal issued an apology the following day.

Read more from our partners: Israeli leader’s visit sparks internal Democratic fight

Republicans see an opening

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks at the Christians United for Israel summit on Monday.

 (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Although most American Jews are Democrats, it is Republicans who are now more closely affiliated with Israel, especially since Netanyahu is a close ally of former President Donald Trump.

Republicans seized on the anti-Israel sentiment on Capitol Hill.

“It’s time to censure the Squad and get antisemitism out of America for good,” former South Carolina Gov. and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination, said at a meeting of pro-Israel Christians in Washington on Monday.

On Tuesday, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., planned to hold a vote on a pro-Israel measure that is clearly intended to force Democrats to take a stance on a divisive issue.

“If there’s anybody in the [Democratic Party] that does not think that antisemitism is bad, then I think this puts them on the record,” said Rep. August Pfluger, R-Texas, who introduced the measure.

Read more from our partners: Dems grit their teeth to get through another awkward Israel dustup

Biden stands firm

Herzog and Biden in the Oval Office on Tuesday. 

(Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Biden has moved to the left on many domestic issues. But when it comes to foreign policy, he remains a mainstream Democrat who has tried to strengthen long-standing bonds instead of upending them.

That has held true when it comes to Israel. “America’s commitment to Israel is firm and it is ironclad,” Biden told reporters as his Oval Office meeting with Herzog was about to begin.

Biden spoke with Netanyahu on Monday, finally extending him a White House invitation.

But the White House has also been hesitant to condemn progressives with different views. Asked by Yahoo News if Rep. Bush had lapsed into antisemitism by calling Israel an “apartheid state,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre gave a less than firm answer that downplayed differences between the White House and congressional Democrats.

"I cannot speak to other congressional members in the House,” she said.

Read more from our partners: Biden takes fire from both sides ahead of Herzog meeting

Rep. McCollum skips Israeli president’s Congress speech


Cheryl Diaz Meyer/Star Tribune/TNS

Hunter Woodall, Star Tribune
Wed, July 19, 2023 

WASHINGTON – The longest serving member of Minnesota's congressional delegation said Wednesday she is not attending Israeli President Isaac Herzog's speech to Congress.

Rep. Betty McCollum, the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, has been a critic of Israel's treatment of Palestinians during her time in Congress.

"Due to a longstanding commitment with tribal leaders which had to be rescheduled because of an added Interior Appropriations markup this week, I am unable [to] attend the joint address in person," McCollum said in a statement. "I will be reading the transcript of the speech in its entirety to stay apprised of the issues raised."

Her decision comes after Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar and a small number of other progressives said earlier that they are boycotting Herzog's speech. The rest of Minnesota's congressional delegation attended the joint address.

McCollum's statement came after she voted present on a House resolution focused on Israel on Tuesday. The resolution, that passed with 412 yes votes, said "Israel is not a racist or apartheid state," that "Congress rejects all forms of antisemitism and xenophobia," and also added "the United States will always be a staunch partner and supporter of Israel."

Omar was among the nine Democrats to vote no on the resolution. The effort was voted on after the Congressional Progressive Caucus leader Rep. Pramila Jayapal called Israel "a racist state." Jayapal apologized and walked back her comment, but her words caused major congressional tensions ahead of Herzog's speech.

Progressive Democrats protest Israeli president’s address to US Congress

Joan E Greve
Tue, July 18, 2023 

Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Democratic divisions over Israel were on stark display on Tuesday, as lawmakers prepared to welcome Isaac “Bougie” Herzog, the president of Israel, for an address to a joint session of Congress.

Several progressive House members, including Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, intend to boycott Herzog’s speech on Wednesday to protest against the treatment of Palestinians under the government of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Related: Why progressives like AOC are right to boycott Israeli President Isaac Herzog | Peter Beinart

“In solidarity with the Palestinian people and all those who have been harmed by Israel’s apartheid government, I will be boycotting President Herzog’s joint address to Congress,” Representative Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat of Michigan, said on Monday. “I urge all members of Congress who stand for human rights for all to join me.”

House Democratic leaders have struck a much more conciliatory tone toward Herzog, embracing the opportunity to hear from the Israeli president.

“President Bougie Herzog has been a force for good in Israeli society,” Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, said on Friday. “I look forward to welcoming him with open arms when he comes to speak before Congress.”

The tension between House Democrats reached a boiling point over the weekend, after Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, described Israel as a “racist state” while speaking at a conference in Chicago.

Jayapal clarified her comments on Sunday, saying: “I do not believe the idea of Israel as a nation is racist. I do, however, believe that Netanyahu’s extreme rightwing government has engaged in discriminatory and outright racist policies and that there are extreme racists driving that policy within the leadership of the current government.”

The Congressional Progressive Caucus chair, Pramila Jayapal, described Israel as a ‘racist state’ before clarifying her comment. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

House Republicans swiftly attacked Jayapal’s comments, calling on Democratic leaders to join them in rejecting the congresswoman’s criticism of Israel.

“I think if the Democrats want to believe that they do not have a conference that continues to make antisemitic remarks, they need to do something about it,” the House Republican speaker, Kevin McCarthy, said on Monday.

Amid the backlash, more than 40 House Democrats signed on to a statement lambasting Jayapal’s “unacceptable” remarks and praising Israel as “the only vibrant, progressive, and inclusive democracy in the region”. House Democratic leaders also issued a joint statement on Sunday denouncing the characterization of Israel as a “racist state”.

“As House Democratic leaders, we strongly support Israel’s right to exist as a homeland for the Jewish people,” the leaders said. “We are also firmly committed to a robust two-state solution where Israel and the Palestinian people can live side by side in peace and prosperity.”

Although the joint statement did not mention Jayapal by name, progressives balked at the leaders’ rejection of one of their colleagues in an effort to quiet criticism from Republicans.

“I am proud to call [Jayapal] a colleague, a friend and our CPC Chair,” Omar said on Tuesday on Twitter. “I am also deeply concerned about the shaming – often of women of color – when they speak out about human rights violations happening in Palestine and Israel, especially when similar concern is not expressed for the lives being lost and families being torn apart.”

House Republicans seized the opportunity to highlight the Democratic divisions over Israel. The House Republican majority leader, Steve Scalise, announced on Monday that the chamber would vote on Tuesday on a resolution asserting “the state of Israel is not a racist or apartheid state”.

“It should be an easy vote,” Scalise said on Twitter. “Will [Democrats] stand with our ally or capitulate to the anti-Semitic radicals in their party?”

As his congressional allies clashed over Herzog’s visit, Joe Biden met with the Israeli president in the Oval Office on Tuesday.

“This is a friendship, I believe, that’s just simply unbreakable,” Biden told Herzog. “America’s commitment to Israel is firm, and it is ironclad.”

A day before his meeting with Herzog, Biden spoke to Netanyahu over the phone, and the two leaders agreed to meet in the coming months. But a spokesperson for the national security council, John Kirby, would not specify whether that meeting will take place at the White House, as Netanyahu has repeatedly requested.

“They will meet probably before the end of this year,” Kirby told reporters on Monday. “And all the details of the ‘wheres’ and the ‘whens’ are still being worked out.”

Tlaib labels Israel an ‘apartheid state’ in impassioned floor speech



Nick Robertson
Tue, July 18, 2023

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) harshly denounced a House resolution supporting Israel in a floor speech on Tuesday, the day before Israeli President Isaac Herzog will address a joint meeting of Congress.

“Israel is an apartheid state. To assert otherwise, Mr. Speaker, in the face of this body of evidence, is an attempt to deny the reality and an attempt to normalize violence of apartheid,” Tlaib said.

“Don’t forget: This body, this Congress, supported the South African apartheid regime, and it was bipartisan as well,” she added.

Tlaib, who is of Palestinian heritage, is one of a slate of progressive members of Congress who plan to skip Herzog’s speech to Congress on Wednesday out of protest against the Israeli government.

The protests come as violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank has increased in recent months, and the Israeli government faces internal strife over attempted judicial reforms.

Tlaib pointed out that the United Nations as well as advocacy groups Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and B’tselem have labeled Israel an apartheid state.

The resolution supporting Israel passed overwhelmingly, with nine members of Congress — mostly Democratic members of the progressive “Squad” — voting against. It specifically states that Israel is “not a racist or apartheid state.”

On Saturday, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said Israel is a “racist state,” vowing to vote against the resolution and skip Herzog’s speech.

Those comments sparked calls for action from Republicans who believed the remarks were antisemitic.

Democrats have dismissed the outrage as a political squabble, but it has caused some rifts within the party.

“There is a difference between criticizing the right of Israel to exist, which is beyond the pale, and criticizing the conduct of the Israeli government, which I think is horrible,” Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), who is Jewish, said Tuesday.

Herzog met with President Biden on Tuesday.

ECOCIDE

Large Oil Spill Reported Near Site of Pemex Platform Blast in Gulf of Mexico

Amy Stillman
Tue, July 18, 2023



(Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos is responding to an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico near the site of a deadly explosion at one of the state-owned company’s natural gas platforms.

Scientist Guillermo Tamburini Beliveau detected the leak July 4, days before the blast off the coast of Mexico’s Campeche, Greenpeace and others said in a statement. The spill was about 400 square kilometers (154 square miles) earlier this month and may have grown to about two-thirds the size of Mexico City, Tamburini said in a presentation that includes satellite images of the leak.

Pemex confirmed the spill in a statement but said it was far smaller than the groups estimated. Most of the oil was recovered immediately, and the leak is now under control, the company said.

The oil giant has come under scrutiny for its safety and environmental record after frequent accidents and explosions at its facilities. The company has $107.4 billion in debt, the most of any oil major, and faces a liquidity crunch. In the second half of May alone, half of its refineries caught fire, while the company reported a spate of accidents in a single day at three separate facilities in February.

The spill might not be connected to the blast earlier this month, but it’s much larger than a typical platform leak, said Itziar Irakulis-Loitxate, a lead researcher on a study from the Polytechnic University of Valencia that last year uncovered two large methane leaks from a Pemex offshore platform.

Since the spill started before the gas platform fire in early July, “I would tend to think that these are two unfortunate incidents that have coincided on similar dates but do not have to be related,” she said in an interview. “But it is true that this particular leak is, by far, much bigger and it is lasting much longer than normal, which is undoubtedly very worrying.”

Poll: Amid heat wave, more Americans say climate change has 'made things worse' in their lives

Andrew Romano
·West Coast Correspondent
Wed, July 19, 2023 

National Park Service rangers pose next to an unofficial heat reading in Death Valley National Park in California on July 16. (Ronda Churchill/AFP via Getty Images)

As blistering heat waves, fatal floods or toxic wildfire smoke afflict nearly every corner of the U.S. this summer, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that a growing number of Americans say climate change has “made things worse” in their lives — and will continue to do so in the future.

The survey of 1,638 U.S. adults, which was conducted from July 13 to 17, shows that more than a third (34%) now believe they have already been personally affected in a negative way by climate change, up 7 points from October 2021 (the last time Yahoo News and YouGov asked the question). Likewise, 47% of Americans — a 5-point increase — now say their own lives will get worse in years to come because of the warming planet.

And while nearly half of U.S. adults (48%) say climate change has not personally affected them yet, just 30% say it will make “no difference” to them in the future.


It’s worth noting that much of the shift in perceptions of how climate change has “made things worse” in “your life so far” has been concentrated among younger adults, who have gone from being the least likely age group to cite a negative effect in 2021 to the most likely group today:


Age 18-29: up 17 points, from 20% to 37%


Age 30-34: up 9 points, from 24% to 33%


Age 45-64: up 4 points, from 27% to 31%


Age 65+: down 1 point, from 35% to 34%

The pervasiveness of this summer’s extreme weather seems to have influenced views. Two years ago, in July 2021, 54% of Americans said yes when asked if they had “noticed more extreme weather events (heat waves, fires, storms, etc.) where you live.” Today, 57% say yes. A 13-point jump among the youngest adults (from 47% to 60%) again accounts for most of the change.

Despite the continuing politicization of climate issues, most Americans now accept that climate change is “contributing to extreme weather events.” When one half of respondents were asked if that is the case regarding the ongoing “heat wave across the Southwest,” 55% said yes; when the other half were asked if the same is true about the “flooding this week in Vermont,” nearly as many (52%) answered in the affirmative — even though flash floods could be considered a less obvious side effect of global warming than hot temperatures. (Hotter air contains more moisture, leading to heavier rains.)

Overall, nearly 8 in 10 Americans agree that Earth’s climate is changing, with 54% saying it’s changing “as a result of human activity” and just 25% saying human activity isn’t responsible. Only 8% of Americans refuse to accept that the climate is changing.


On a similar note, 56% of adults describe climate change as “an established scientific fact," and even more (61%) say they are at least somewhat worried about it. A full 30% say they are “very worried” — including 65% of those who say climate change has already “made things worse” in their lives. Additionally, 17% of Americans who say climate change has already made their lives worse also name it as their most important issue when thinking about next year’s election — just behind inflation and democracy (20% each) and far ahead of the 3% of all other Americans who say climate change is the most important election issue for them.

This probably reflects the fact that people tend to care more about climate change after they’ve been personally affected — and perhaps also suggests that Americans who already care most about the issue are more likely to realize that it's exacerbating whatever extreme weather they experience.

At the moment, nearly half of all voters (48%) describe climate change as “an existential threat that must be addressed now with major legislation,” while fewer dismiss it as either “not a real threat” (27%) or “a threat the government has already done enough to address” (13%).

But the parties remain divided on whether the U.S. should take urgent action. Just 12% of voters who cast their ballot for Donald Trump in 2020 want major legislation; among 2020 Joe Biden voters, that number is 82%.

____________

The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,638 U.S. adults interviewed online from July 13 to 17, 2023. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to March 15, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (32% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.7%.