Nourishing the future

Coco Ushiyama 

Published March 15, 2025 

DAWN

The writer is country director and representative World Food Programme.


EVERY year, International School Meals Day is celebrated on the second Thursday of March, bringing attention to the importance of nutritious school meals in promoting child health, well-being, and learning.

This is especially crucial in Pakistan, where 26 million children aged five to 16 are out of school, contributing to the global crisis of 251m children worldwide without access to education. Worldwide, barriers such as poverty, food insecurity, gaps in school infrastructure, including classrooms, supplies, water, and sanitation, continue to prevent children from receiving an education.

Even among those enrolled, many children attend classes without breakfast, hindering their ability to concentrate, learn and thrive. A school meal programme implemented in government schools in Pakistan could be a transformative solution, encouraging the poorest families to send their children, especially daughters, to school. Once in the classroom, school meals ensure children are well-nourished and ready to learn.

School meals programmes are a multisectoral game changer that improve children’s education, health and nutrition. More broadly, they support the whole community by providing an important safety net, and by strengthening food systems and economies.


School meals are a strategic investment priority.

Global evidence shows school meals yield $7 to 35 in returns for every dollar spent. Studies show that these school meals programmes can be effective in improving nutrition and health, improving education outcomes, alleviating poverty, and strengthening gender equality by limiting school dropout among girls.

Global momentum is growing. The School Meals Coalition, a network of 100 governments and over 130 partners, is supporting countries expand policies and financing to ensure all children have access to nutritious meals by 2030.

The governments of Benin, Brazil, France, Germany, Honduras, Indonesia, Kenya, Nigeria, Paraguay, Philippines, Sierra Leone and Tajikistan are leading the push to expand school meals provision. As part of these efforts, Brazil will host the next Global School Meals Coalition Summit this September to share best practices and further drive action. Among measures announced ahead of the G20 leaders’ summit a few months ago were the following:

— Indonesia to launch its Free Nutritious Meal Programme in January 2025, positioning it among the largest school meal initiatives globally, reaching around 78m schoolchildren by 2029.

— The Philippines to double its investment to massively expand its school meals programme from 120 days to a full academic year, alongside a pilot rollout for universal feeding, reaching over 3m students and providing over 360m meals.

— Nigeria to relaunch its Renewed Hope National Home Grown School Feeding Programme feeding 20m children annually; launch school farms that will contribute 10 per cent of food items to school feeding, engage 250,000 smallholder farmers and aggregators in school feeding, and improve school attendance and reduce out-of-school children by 30pc by 2026.

Momentum is building in Pakistan since 2021, when the government of Pakistan endorsed the Global School Meals Coalition, committing to integrating school meals into national education and social protection plans.

Last year when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared an education emergency, saying, “Education is not an expenditure, it is the most profitable investment”, the Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training also launched a school meals programme that targets 55,000 schoolchildren from 207 schools at the federal level.


Meanwhile, the World Food Prog­ramme partnered with the Balo­chis­tan Education De­­partment to start a school meals programme, and over the first four months reached more than 13,000 children across 39 schools. This year, the initiative will expand to a total of 20,000 children in 65 schools. Discussions on how to start, scale and sustain school meal programmes are ongoing in other provinces.

With several South Asian countries recently establishing national legislation on school meals, Pakistan has a valuable opportunity to develop a similar framework. A strong legal foundation can ensure sustainable support and dedicated funding, ultimately benefiting students from the poorest families across the country.

As Pakistan is projected to become the world’s third most populous country by 2050, investing in human capital development through education, health and nutrition is more crucial than ever. Ensuring that children receive meals at school will not only improve their health but also boost their learning outcomes, paving the way for a healthier and more prosperous future for the next generation.

Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2025

SMOKERS’ CORNER: YEAR ZERO IDEOLOGY

Nadeem F. Paracha 

Published March 16, 2025

EOS , DAWN

Illustration by Abro


There is a perception about young supporters of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) that their knowledge of political history is extremely weak. That’s why, to them, everything done by or to their leader is a ‘first’, even though the country’s history is full of the same things done by, and to, many other Pakistani politicians.

I was in the US last November and, in my discussions there with dozens of young Indian-Americans — most of whom tried to convince me that Modi was the best thing that had ever happened to India — I noticed a similar tendency in them. The Hungarian sociologist Frank Furedi refers to this tendency as the product of “Year Zero Ideology” (YZI).

Furedi describes YZI as an outlook that seeks a radical break from the past. It is derived from the ‘Year Zero’ evocations of revolutionary movements that (after coming to power) wanted to start anew by erasing all ‘evil’ memories and structures of the past. They wanted to divorce history and marry a new epoch.

Some examples in this regard include the American Revolution (1776), the French Revolution (1789), the Chinese Revolution (1949) and the Khmer Rouge revolution in Cambodia (1975).

In an age where historical narratives are increasingly weaponised and distorted to serve contemporary agendas, are we erasing the past instead of learning from it?

To Furedi, the ZYI in these cases — although often brutal in its application — at least came with (albeit Utopian) plans for a “better future.” In his book War Against The Past, Furedi differentiates this strand of ZYI with its more contemporary strand. The latter strand, he laments, comes with no plans whatsoever, except to attack the past to enforce the “moral superiority of the present”, through which it can influence present-day affairs.

According to Furedi, contemporary YZI is only interested in extracting bleak episodes from history to bolster narratives of victimhood of one community or the other. This alone is its plan. This leads to a highly politicised reading of history and the possibility of history’s complete erasure.

Bringing down physical historical structures which ‘offend’ contemporary values; suppressing memories of a past that don’t fit certain ideological frameworks; renaming streets or cities whose historical names remind one of a subjugated past etc — all this is not really about starting anew. It is about erasing parts of history one is uncomfortable with.

Nation-states deal with this by modifying/ altering/ distorting certain portions of their respective histories. Indeed, some have even tried to create their Year Zeroes, but they all did this with a plan in mind, no matter how fancy, utopian or ambitious. There are serious issues in this that have produced problematic outcomes. Yet, alarmingly, these are still not as troubling as the contemporary strands of YZI.

Contemporary YZI is not a state project, unless, for example, one is talking about India, where a Hindu nationalist government is trying to impose a Year Zero scenario from which, apparently, will begin a pure “Hindu state” inspired by a largely imagined Hindu past, but one which will have no memory of Muslim rule in the region.

The Pakistani state tried to do the same when it lost its eastern wing in a civil war in 1971. It tried to create a Year Zero scenario from where it looked to enact an ‘Islamic republic’ whose history was uprooted from South Asia and brazenly transported to Arabia. Even the more modern memory of a pre-1971 Pakistan was systematically erased.

YZI today is largely a project of academics who are influencing the creation of (postmodern) liberal, left-wing and right-wing narratives. History is being used to extract episodes of violence, tyranny and repression from it, as if this is all history is ever about. What’s more, to do this, events and people who lived dozens, hundreds, even thousands of years ago, are being decontextualised from their eras and put in contemporary contexts, as if they were exposed to values similar to the ones held by societies today.

The bleak episodes extracted from history are being used to bolster ideologically driven agendas. This is happening on the left as well as on the right. So, what’s the plan? To produce cliques/tribes of baby fascists, tiny communists and little liberals by feeding the youth selective bits of history, and treating the other bits as irrelevant? There is no plan.

Contemporary YZI leads to “presentism” which, according to the American historian David Hackett Fischer, means the study and writing of history in a way that uses the past to validate present-day political beliefs. So Year Zero, in the context of contemporary YZI, gets frozen in the present. Battles are raging between all sides as they continue to weaponise certain historical events to one-up their equally frozen opponents — not really to build a case for a better future, but to win present battles.

According to Furedi, the line between the present and the past has blurred, as the present continues to understand the past in the context of the present. This is a case of value-anachronism or the projection and placing of a present-day value in a past in which it was never present.

Slavery was entirely acceptable in the distant past, so can one judge an ancient slave-owner of being a monster? Can one call those who died during the bubonic plague in mediaeval times fools for believing that it was caused by rats that materialised out of thin air in garbage dumps?

It would be presentism’s arrogance to call them that. But this arrogance forgets that, in its own time, thousands of smarter, much more educated men and women refused to get a simple shot of the Covid-19 vaccine because they believed it contained nano-computer chips. Every epoch of history needs to be studied in the political, cultural, social and economic context that it existed in.

History is perhaps the greatest of teachers. One may fear it or feel uncomfortable by it, but will always manage to learn something from it. Distorting it, demonising it or erasing it are all reactionary acts born from fear or arrogance. It is always there.

In 1945, the Italian fascist Benito Mussolini’s statues were smashed, posters of him set on fire, and his executed body hung upside down in Milan. A little over 80 years later, a party rooted in his legacy has come to power.

History doesn’t begin from the bits one likes or dislikes. No lessons can be learned from it if its study is selective, done through a ‘presentist’ bias or, worse, erased. Because when it returns in any form, as it often does, those who thought it was irrelevant will have no knowledge of how to deal with it.

Published in Dawn, EOS, March 16th, 2025

PAKISTAN

GDP and the quality of life

Shahid Mehmood

DAWN

March 14th, 2025

The writer is an economist.

IT is that time again — the usual boom-and-bust cycle of Pakistan’s endless eco when we begin to hear increasing murmurs of higher GDP growth. The monks in the power halls of the country zealously sing hymns of ‘high growth’ and ‘stability’, and those who govern us promise dizzying heights for the umpteenth time.

Did past instances of GDP growth solve our pressing matters? Let us contemplate.

Pakistan’s economic growth trajectory contains numerous instances of a high growth rate. In the 21st century, we’ve had several touching six and eight per cent. Between fiscal years 2000 and 2024, the gross national income increased from Rs17 trillion to Rs45tr (State Bank)), respectable by any standard. Additionally, the federal and provincial governments have been expanding their footprint under the guise of ‘welfare’ and enhancing economic growth, estimated to be around 67pc or more of the aggregate economic activity (‘Size of government footprint in the economy’ by Nadeem Haq & Raja Rafi).

In FY00-01, the total expense of the federal government stood at Rs732 billion and 511 milli­on (including transfers to provinces) of which development spending stood at Rs72bn. At the end of the first half of FY2024-25 (December 2024), the total expense had leapfrogged to Rs11tr and 301bn (set to cross Rs17tr by the fiscal year’s end), of which development spending stood at Rs743bn.

Any way you look at it, these are quantum leaps in expenses. Yet, despite all this, we observe something strange going on. The denizens of this country are leaving in droves, even the ones who enjoy a decent quality of life thanks to their wealth. Across the length and breadth of the country, whether in cities or far-flung areas, there is palpable despair and hopelessness, captured aptly by the BASICS Survey led by my senior colleague, Dr Durre Nayab.

Across the length and breadth of the country there is palpable despair and hopelessness.

How does one reconcile all this? To understand this conundrum, it would perhaps be wise to look beyond chosen macro statistics and peer into other, lesser discussed numbers that matter.

How about property rights, a fundamental component of economic growth and human rights, and the justice system that upholds these rights? Both are almost non-existent. Clean air? Cities like Lahore and Peshawar now frequently top the list of the most polluted cities, decreasing the life expectancy of their denizens. Intellectual discourse, freedom of expression and religious tolerance? Non-existent, to the extent that citizens vanish without a trace, minorities fear for their lives, and organised gangs now openly conduct business in the name of blasphemy, murdering citizens and extorting money from their families.

Equal opportunity and a dynamic economy creating jobs? You wish. The level of basic services like water, gas, electricity, sewerage, libraries, etc? Poor and mediocre. Quality of education? Poor, with over 200 universities failing to produce anything that can compete with the top-tier universities around the globe, and all the while being cesspools of politics, intrigues and factionalism.

Security of life and property? The whole country, especially cities, are rife with crime and criminal activity. Even the capital, Islamabad, merely 906 square kilometres, and with 2,200 security cameras, 72 pickets at entry and exit points, 23 mobile cars with cameras, and the Dolphin Squad (besides the regular police and other security presence), is now infested with crime (there were 900 abductions in 2024). And of course, two provinces are in the throes of a full-blown insurgency.

Last, but not the least, any chance of accountability of those who did this to Pakistan and enacting a turnaround for good? Zero.

Before some folks accuse me of ‘spreading negativity’, whether they like it or not, what I have stated here is the reality, and only a small fraction of the circumstances that citizens have to endure every day.

The gist is that merely counting on GDP growth as an end in itself is illogical and counterproductive. Growth brings challenges of its own, which if not handled properly, can become a binding constraint upon our lives, making it more cumbersome and challenging than before, a fact that flies in the face of the ‘paisa phaink, tamasha dekh’ (throw money at a problem and it will be solved) philosophy of our economic managers. The ongoing concretisation of Islamabad at an unprecedented pace via overpasses, underpasses and signal-free corridors serves as an apt example. It is a recipe for environmental disaster (just like Lahore), yet it would register as an increase in GDP in national accounts.


Our economic managers — politicians, bureaucracy and the military establishment — are still stuck in a growth time warp in which there is room for only a single, outdated philosophy: pour more steel, bricks and cement into the ground, and that will do the trick (also called brick-and-mortar growth). They get their fair share in between, but at the expense of the hapless citizens who are left with more bills to foot.

The needed shift involves consideration of quality over quantity. Life and the economic health of a nation are more than taxpayer finance-cemented monstrosities. The GDP can even be, say, 10pc or more, but if citizens still feel insecure and that their life, hard work and contributions have little meaning, and where they are not stakeholders, then all growth would come to naught.

Let me leave you with a stunning remark posted by a resident of Karachi, replying to criticism of why fans did not fill the Karachi cricket stadium for the opening match of the Champions Trophy: “I think people … really have no clue about how bad Karachi has gotten. The constant rejection of the residents of this city comes down to the dire situation of the actual metropolitan area. The road blocks, traffic, crime, generally extreme dissatisfaction, feeling of being forgotten as a city … all this and more makes any entertainment like cricket feel like a circus that people will rather avoid.”

If a resident can understand the dissatisfaction at hand, why can’t those in the high pulpit of governance?

The writer is an economist. His current research focuses upon cost-benefit analysis of foreign funded PSDP projects, economic reforms and the history of economic thought.

shahid.mohmand@gmail.com

X: @ShahidMohmand79

Vlog: Café Iqtisaad

Published in Dawn, March 14th, 2025

CLIMATE CHANGE  AND  PAKISTAN'S SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh

Published March 13, 2025

DAWN

The writer is a climate change and sustainable development expert.

PAKISTAN’S social protection system is at a cr­­o­s­­sroads. Traditional social protection systems, while providing critical support for poverty reduction, are not designed to address the compounding challenges of climate-triggered disasters. The cou­n­try’s flagship Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) needs to integrate an adaptive social protection system that can respond to climate risks and shocks while maintaining its core poverty alleviation function. This transition can be spearheaded by the pr­­ovinces, where provincial BISP set-ups are sear­ch­ing for province-specific priorities and innovations.

BISP has emerged as the cornerstone of Pakistan’s poverty alleviation strategy. It operates largely in isolation from the country’s disaster risk management and climate adaptation efforts, resulting in inefficient resource utilisation and inadequate protection when disasters strike as has been the case in the recent floods, heatwaves, droughts, and glacial outbreaks.

Pakistan’s social protection policy has evolved from welfare state approaches to targeted social assistance programmes, with BISP launched in 2008 as a globally pioneering initiative. It has successfully delivered financial assistance to millions of households with advanced beneficiary identification and sophisticated payment systems. However, it lacks mechanisms for scaling up assistance during climate-triggered disasters, integration with early warning systems and anticipatory actions to mitigate pre-disaster impacts.

Government responses to emergencies have been largely reactive rather than systematic. Critical gaps in climate response include institutional fragmentation, limited coverage, vulnerable households outside safety nets during disasters, focus on post-disaster response rather than risk reduction, inadequate data integration and predominantly reactive financing.

The 18th Amendment, 2010, has devolved many social protection responsibilities from federal to provincial governments, creating coordination challenges and gaps in comprehensive social security coverage. The overall landscape has become incoherent, fragmented and inadequately responsive to growing vulnerabilities.

Globally, several social protection programmes have evolved to integrate anticipatory social protection and environmental conservation. Pakistan needs a systematic transformation of BISP that encompasses institutional reforms, governance realignments, and innovative financing mechanisms. This will hinge on expanding BISP’s mandate through legislative amendments, building robust early warning integration, developing anticipatory action protocols, and establishing multi-layered financing that combines domestic resources and international climate finance. It is a tall order but an important one, which is necessary to address the fragmentation of social protection responsibilities between the federal and provincial governments, which is hampering a coordinated response to cross-jurisdictional climate disasters.

Adaptive social protection offers a promising integrated approach that combines social protection, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to create more responsive safety nets. ASP acknowledges the interconnectedness of soc­ial, economic and environmental vulnerabilities rather than treating poverty and climate risks separately. By enhancing the resilience of vulnerable households to various shocks, ASP creates safety nets that respond dynamically to emerging threats while building long-term resilience. This integration is particularly important for Pakistan, where climate hazards disproportionately affect the poor and threaten to undermine development gains.

Pakistan needs to significantly improve its Social Protection Index ranking while building resilience among vulnerable communities facing escalating climate risks. In comparative regional terms, its social protection expenditure (0.5 to 1.4 per cent of GDP) lags significantly behind regional counterparts. The country’s Social Protection Index is about 0.07, lower than Bangladesh (0.33), India (0.46) and Sri Lanka (0.47). Coverage rates are similarly concerning, with only 9.2pc of the population receiving benefits compared to 53pc in Bangladesh and nearly 100pc eligibility in India.


Pakistan needs a systematic transformation of BISP.

In the climate change context, the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-triggered disasters exacerbate existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities, creating a cycle of crisis and recovery that traditional systems struggle to address. India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and Bangladesh’s National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) offer fascinating regional case studies.

MGNREGA offers a compelling model of integrating environmental conservation with social protection. It guarantees 100 days of unskilled wage employment yearly to rural households, with significant work focused on natural resource management activities that enhance climate resilience while providing income support. MGNREGA reaches approximately 140m beneficiaries across 270m rural households, contrasting sharply with Pakistan’s more limited BISP reach of 4pc of the population, reaching upto 8.5m households.

MGNREGA has created water harvesting structures that improve agricultural productivity and reduce vulnerability to droughts. In Rajasthan, it has constructed over 125,000 water conservation structures, benefiting 1.8m farmers. Some studies indicate MGNREGA has sequestered around 102m tonnes of carbon through various environmental initiatives, creating prospects of carbon credits.

MGNREGA and BISP represent fundamentally different approaches. MGNREGA’s demand-driven employment guarantee programme creates direct mechanisms for environmental intervention through public works, while BISP’s cash transfer approach disburses cash without a built-in environmental dimension. Approximately 60pc of MGNREGA works focus on biodiversity and natural resource management. BISP has no comparable environmental intervention mechanisms.

Bangladesh’s NSSS has pioneered climate-respo­nsive social protection by targeting vulnerable reg­ions and integrating a disaster response with long-term resilience building. The social protection system reaches about 28pc of the population, including over 9m beneficiaries in climate-vulnerable coa­stal areas, achieving greater coverage in at-risk zones than Pakistan’s limited presence in similar regions.

There is a case for Pakistan to adapt elements of regional success stories, potentially through a hybrid model combining BISP’s cash transfers with optional public works in environmentally vulnerable areas. To achieve regional parity in social protection coverage, Pakistan would need to dramatically expand its safety net. Achieving even a modest target of 40pc coverage by 2047 would require Pakistan to extend protection to some 140m people — more than six times the current coverage.

Sustainable financing needs domestic resource mobilisation, innovative risk transfer mechanisms, international climate finance, and private sector engagement. Climate risk financing instruments need to complement budgetary resources through a layered strategy combining contingency funds for frequent events with insurance mechanisms. Like others, Pakistan can explore international climate finance to advance adaptive social protection.

Transforming BISP into an adaptive social protection system requires expanding its scope beyond cash transfers while maintaining its core poverty alleviation function. This vision encompasses BISP evolving into a responsive mechanism that can scale assistance during climate shocks, incorporate anticipatory actions, and build long-term community resilience.

The writer is a climate change and sustainable development expert. This column is based on his keynote address at the Second National Social Protection Conference, organised by the German Agency for International Cooperation, Karachi.

Published in Dawn, March 13th, 2025

Anchoring the news

Muna Khan 

Published March 16, 2025

DAWN

The writer is a journalism instructor.



WHEN I began teaching eight years ago I would ask students to tell me which journalist they most wanted to hear from. That list was always varied; students were interested in hearing from newspaper reporters to editors to TV anchors. I inevitably had a guest lecturer every week of the first semester and I’m grateful all my guests spoke candidly to my students. I’m equally proud my students asked difficult questions like why salaries are delayed when media owners are clearly wealthy.

But I noticed a shift in the winter of 2019, a waning in interest among both undergrad and postgrad students. It’s not that they didn’t know journalists, it’s that they didn’t really care to hear from them. I began to hear more complaints of the ‘I don’t feel represented’ in the media variety. There was a lot of resentment at how the Aurat March had been covered a year earlier. The anger at the misogyny has grown every year I’ve taught and, as the kids say, I’m here for it. Newsroom managers reading this must take note.

Then, in 2023, when I began teaching news media literacy to liberal arts students not on any journalism or news media track, I was surprised at their lack of interest in meeting journalists. The only two names that featured were Waseem Badami and Iqrarul Hasan, both on the same channel. My students weren’t all supporters of a particular party but their families were so they were the two names these students were most familiar with. This year too, Waseem Badami has topped the list. It is because they like his style of journalism which they say is non-combative. He seems like a nice guy, one student said.

Eight years doesn’t seem like a long time to witness such a decline in interest but then, maybe it mirrors the decline in what’s passing as news these days. When journalists are laid off, and others have to step in and take the extra load, with no extra compensation or when they have to work without getting salaries for two months, it seems unfair to expect quality journalism. Yet many of my colleagues are producing stellar work under impossible, circumstances. They deserve the recognition for their work, which isn’t getting the eyeballs it deserves. Because the screaming heads on TV and YouTube consume too much space.


One noticed declining interest among the students.

Loathsome as they may be, some anchors have been taken off air in the past few weeks and this should cause everyone a great deal of concern. My students weren’t that pushed because they don’t relate to TV, let alone TV anchors.

I turned to a friend and journalism instructor in the US to get his thoughts. Why can’t I get my students to care about these anchors being taken off air in Pakistan, I asked. How can I get them to see that this censorship will impact them too.

He said he was struggling to get his students to connect with the big story about Netflix cancelling Ezra Edelman’s six-part documentary on Prince because the late artist’s estate complained the film had “dramatic” inaccuracies and “sensationalised” certain events. I have followed this story with interest as I’m a huge Prince fan; the issue provides so many points of discussion for media students — censorship, whose job it is to protect a subject’s legacy — but my friend said he couldn’t get his students to engage because “they couldn’t relate to Prince”. And they felt the film should be canned because Prince didn’t sound like a likeable person.

Maybe this is a generational issue both of us need to come to terms with — we need to evolve with our students instead of pushing issues they don’t care about, as tragic as that may feel.

My students do en­­gage with the news. It’s just not the way I want them to. They consume news ac­­r­oss platforms like TikTok, news outlets apps and check for updates several times a day. They are bombarded with information — and conspiracy theories — and often struggle to sift fact from fiction but this doesn’t mean they don’t care. They are cynical. I tell them they have the traits of a good journalist and they say they want quality journalism but struggle to find that too.

Although my friend and I are far away, we found this similarity among our students: Gaza features high on the list of things they care about along with climate change, health and money. They were closely following the arrest of Mahmoud Khalil, the Palestinian activist who led pro-Palestine protests at Columbia University. They are deeply impacted by police brutality and injustice.

News organisations should take heed and quench this generation’s thirst for reliable, fair information. I am guilty of stereotyping them and must step up and do right by them. We all must.


X: @LedeingLady

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2025

Developing states outperform developed economies in 2024

The Newspaper's Reporter 

Published March 16, 2025 

DAWN

ISLAMABAD: Developing economies outperformed developed nations in 2024, with imports and exports rising by 4pc for the year and 2pc in the fourth quarter, mainly driven by East and South Asia.

In contrast, developed economies saw stagnant trade for the year and a 2pc decline in the last quarter, according to a UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report.

The ‘Global Trade Update’ issued on Friday says global trade hit a record $33tr in 2024, growing by 3.7pc, with most regions seeing positive growth, except for Europe and Central Asia. Services led the expansion, growing 9pc annually and adding $700bn, which is nearly 60pc of the total growth.

Trade in goods grew 2pc, contributing $500bn. However, overall trade growth slowed in the second half of 2024, with trade in goods growing less than 0.5pc and services just onepc in the fourth quarter.

The US trade deficit with China reached $355bn, widening by $14bn in the fourth quarter, while its deficit with the EU increased by $12bn to $241bn. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus reached its highest level since 2022, and the EU reversed previous deficits, posting a trade surplus for the year, helped by high energy prices.

The report says trade remained stable in early 2025, but mounting geo-economic tensions, protectionist policies and trade disputes signal likely disruptions ahead.

Recent shipping trends also indicate a slowdown, with falling freight indices signalling weaker industrial activity, particularly in supply chain-dependent sectors.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2025

PAKISTAN FORDISM

Suzuki pulls the plug on WagonR, Ravi

Aamir Shafaat Khan 

Published March 16, 2025 

DAWN



KARACHI: After suspending the booking for Suzuki Mehran and Bolan, the Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) has now decided to pull the plug on Suzuki WagonR and Suzuki Ravi by the middle of this year.

According to vendors, they have received the final official schedule for both the vehicles showing “nil production” beyond June, even though the demand for Ravi is still strong.

They said the demand for Bolan, whose production had been suspended in the last quarter of last year, was also strong.

Vendors said “Pak Suzuki has so far come up with no alternative for WagonR while Ravi will be replaced with Every pick-up”.

The company had stopped the production of Bolan in October and commenced the production of 660cc 

Every the same month.

“We have already started providing parts and accessories for the new pick-up,” a vendor said.

The company suspended bookings for Suzuki WagonR (all variants) on March 11.

The vendor said small and mid-level dealers may feel the pinch of closure of WagonR and Ravi as it will take time for the new vehicles to lure buyers.

Mashood Khan, a Suzuki auto parts vendor, recalled that Ravi pickup was launched in the late 1980s. This iconic pickup has reached a significant milestone, with over half a million units on the road today.

A breakthrough came in the early 1990s when then Punjab chief minister Shehbaz Sharif launched Taxi Scheme. “Over 66,000 units of Suzuki Mehran, Bolan and Ravi were booked for the scheme, boosting local entrepreneurship and driving small business mobility,” Mashood Khan added.

“Suzuki models hold the distinction of having the highest number of local auto parts manufactu-rers — a key factor in strengthening the domestic auto industry.”

Pak Suzuki became the first company to encourage local auto parts manufacturers, laying the foundation for sustainable industry partnerships. Another milestone was achieved when this model became the first commercial vehicle exported from Pakistan to Asian countries.

The Ravi pickup is more than just a mode of transport — it’s a symbol of strength, reliability and national pride, Mashood said.

Total Ravi sales in July-Feb FY25 swelled to 3,687 units from 1,943 in the same period of the last fiscal. The highest sales of Ravi stood at 29,825 units in FY16 while the lowest were recorded at 2,731 units in FY24.

Suzuki Ravi is a first choice for transporters of low-cost goods. With no competitor, it really rules the new and second-hand market.

The company did not bother to make any change in the Ravi model for over three decades, putting faith in a theory that when the demand for a product is sound, there is no need to change the model.

The price of the standard Ravi model is Rs 1.956 million.

Many buyers have converted Ravi pick-up into a school van and family vehicle by placing a big hood for going to a picnic spot and attending functions.

The pickup also plays a main role in transporting sand and gravel (Reti/Bajri) in limited volumes.

WagonR

Suzuki WagonR (1,000cc) was introduced in March 2014 with an initial production of 314 units, while total production reached 2,532 units three months later.

The model has not seen any change over a decade, except for the launch of the AGS model.

The highest-ever production of 33,176 units of WagonR was recorded in FY19 while the lowest production of 1,783 units was made in FY24. During July-Feb FY25, its sales had plunged to 1,608 units from 2,285 units in the same period of the last fiscal.

The current prices of three WagonR models range between Rs3.21m and Rs3.74m. But the 1000cc vehicle did never match Suzuki Mehran and Bolan in popularity due to its design.

As per a corporate briefing by Pak Suzuki in 2023 to brokerage houses, Suzuki Swift had achieved an indigenisation level of 34pc, Cultus 50pc, Wagon-R 61pc, Alto 61pc, Bolan 72pc and Ravi 68pc.

In order to achieve complete indigenisation, the company stated, a substantial investment in the auto parts industry is needed, but the local production of high-tech auto parts would not begin until the total volume of car sales reaches 500,000 per year.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2025

Looming water shortages threaten wheat, sugar crops in Sindh, Punjab

“Look, the water is life for all of us. "

Khalid Hasnain 

Published March 16, 2025 

DAWN

AN aerial view of Mangla Dam, which has a maximum conservation level of 1,242 feet.—Dawn

LAHORE: In line with the Indus River System Authority’s advisory-cum warning, the Mangla Dam on Saturday hit its dead level — minimum operating level of 1,050 feet — which would hamper agriculture in Sindh and Punjab due to a shortage of irrigation water in the near future.

On the other hand, Tarbela Dam also seems set to touch its dead level of 1,402 feet soon, as it recorded a storage level of 1,405.10 on Saturday. The water conservation level in Chashma Reservoir is also about to hit its dead level of 638.15 feet from the current 639.20 feet.

“Look, the water is life for all of us. Therefore, without it, we cannot live,” Pakistan Kissan Ittehad’s Chairman Khalid Khokhar told Dawn. “At present, the water flowing in the canal is less than the standard one, which leads to less watering for the crops—wheat, sugarcane, and others in the fields.”

According to Mian Ihsan Ul Haq, Pakistan Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman, the impact of water shortage in Sindh may be more severe than in Punjab, as almost the entire agri land/fields there depend on the canal water.

Mangla reaches dead level, Tarbela and Chashma reservoirs nearly dried

“The underground water in Sindh has brackish water. This is why the farmers have no option but to use canal water for watering crops. So if there is less or no canal water in Sindh, all standing crops, including sugarcane, cannot survive in coming days,” he warned.

Mr Haq said the situation in Punjab, especially the southern parts, may also face a real threat. He said the Punjab government had already banned the preparation of paneer (sowing) of the rice crop before May in the south Punjab.

To a question, he said if the situation doesn’t improve, the crops, including wheat—which is yet to have last watering—sugarcane, several vegetable crops in tunnel farming and mango orchards may have a negative impact.

“Moreover, the crops in Cholistan, where the underground water is not sweet but brackish, may also be in great trouble,” he further warned.

Meanwhile, the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) says that the Tarbela Dam’s live storage on Saturday remained at 0.015 million acre-feet (MAF), and its maximum water conservation capacity is 1,550 feet. .

The storage level in Chashma Lake, which has a minimum operating level of 638.15 feet, was recorded as 639.20 feet. Since the lake’s maximum conservation capacity is 649 feet, its live storage is 0.015 MAF.

“The inflows and outflows of River Indus at Tarbela, Jinnah and Chashma, River Kabul at Nowshera and River Jhelum at Mangla have been reflected as mean flows of 24 hours, whereas the other flows have been gauged at 6am,” reads a statement issued by Wapda.

In a recent letter to provinces, Irsa warned Punjab and Balochistan, especially to prepare for up to 35 per cent water shortages in the last leg of the current crop season while operating the reservoirs on run-of-the-river mode at or around dead levels.

The Irsa data for the first week of March revealed that Tarbela Dam only has 73,000 acre-feet of water storage. Mangla Dam had a live storage of 235,000 acre-feet, with its level at 1,088 feet, just 28 feet above its dead level of 1,060 feet.

The authority further briefed the provinces that both Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs may hit their dead levels soon.

It had already anticipated the start of the Rabi season on Oct 2, 2024, when it estimated the storage reaching dead level in the first 10 days of March.

Though the dam’s water storage level reduction is a usual situation, the wheat crop is currently at a critical stage of last watering and should be readying for harvest by the end of this month.

It further revealed that from Oct 01, 2024, to Feb 28, Punjab and Sindh faced a shortfall of 20pc and 14pc, respectively. While hoping for more rain spells in the coming days, it sought necessary arrangements from provinces to avert any issue.

Irsa’s spokesperson was not available for comments.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2025

Iran using tech to enforce women’s dress code, claims UN report

DAWN
Monitoring Desk

Published March 15, 2025 


IRAN is using drones and intrusive digital technology to crush dissent, especially among women who refuse to obey the strict dress code, BBC News quoted a United Nations report as saying.

Investigators say Iranian security officials are using a strategy of “state-sponsored vigilantism” to encourage people to use specialist phone apps to report women for alleged dress code violations in private vehicles such as taxis and ambulances.

Their new report also highlights the increasing use of drones and security cameras to monitor hijab compliance in Tehran and in southern Iran.

For women who defy the laws, or protest against them, the consequences are severe.

The findings of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran come after it determined last year that the country’s theocracy was responsible for the “physical violence” that led to the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022.

Witnesses said the 22-year-old Kurd was badly beaten by the morality police during her arrest, but authorities denied she was mistreated and blamed “sudden heart failure” for her death. Her killing sparked a massive wave of protests that continues to this day, despite threats of arrest and imprisonment.

“Two-and-a-half years after the protests began in September 2022, women and girls in Iran continue to face systematic discrimination, in law and in practice, that permeates all aspects of their lives, particularly with respect to the enforcement of the mandatory hijab,” the report said.

“The state is increasingly reliant on state-sponsored vigilantism in an apparent effort to enlist businesses and private individuals in hijab compliance, portraying it as a civic responsibility.”

Facial recognition

At Tehran’s Amirkabir University, authorities installed facial recognition software at its entrance gate to also find women not wearing the hijab, the report said.

According to BBC News, surveillance cameras on Iran’s major roads are also being used to search for uncovered women.

Investigators also said they obtained the ‘Nazer’ mobile app offered by Iranian police, which allows “vetted” members of the public and the police to report on uncovered women in vehicles, including ambulances, buses, metro cars and taxis.

“Users may add the location, date, time and the licence plate number of the vehicle in which the alleged mandatory hijab infraction occurred, which then ‘flags’ the vehicle online, alerting the police,” the report said.

According to the report, a text message is then sent to the registered owner of the vehicle, warning them they had been found in violation of the mandatory hijab laws. Vehicles could be impounded for ignoring the warnings, it added.

The UN investigators interviewed almost 300 victims and witnesses – they also looked in-depth at Iran’s judicial system, which they said lacks any real independence. Victims of torture and other violations were also persecuted while their families were “systematically intimidated”, according to their report.

They also found evidence of the extrajudicial executions of three child and three adult protesters, later dismissed by the state as suicides.

The report also established additional cases of sexual violence in custody, citing the case of one arrested woman who was beaten severely, subjected to two mock executions, raped and then gang-raped.

The report will be presented to the Human Rights Council on March 18.

Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2025

COMMENT: CHANGING THE DEMOGRAPHY OF KASHMIR

KASHMIR IS INDIA'S GAZA

Muhammad Wasay Mir 

Published March 16, 2025 

EOS/DAWN

A protest in Srinagar in the days after the revocation of the disputed territory's special status by the BJP-led Indian government on August 5, 2019 | Reuters

If you can’t change people’s minds, change the people. Mass exodus, ethnic cleansing or genocide can all be devastating ways to change the demographic of an area overnight. However, gradual demographic engineering is done as part of state policy.

That is what is unfolding in India-Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IOJK), where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government is systematically dissolving any hopes the people of the region might have for autonomy.

India’s administrative structure has a total of 28 states and eight union territories. IOJK, while previously a state, became a union territory under August 2019’s sweeping legislative “reforms”. To understand the systematic dismantling of Kashmir’s identity and the BJP’s roadmap for the total annexation of the disputed region, it is necessary to understand the legislative chokehold on IOJK’s autonomy.

LEGAL LASSO


India functions through a bi-cameral legislature, with the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) and the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) working on distinct mandates. Both houses have equal powers in passing constitutional amendments and bills require approval from both chambers before the president can sign them into law.

In August 2019, BJP’s home affairs minister, Amit Shah, introduced key legislative “reforms” in the Rajya Sabha to consolidate India’s hold of IOJK, which was swiftly passed by both legislatures and signed off by the president.


In 2019, the Modi government revoked India-Occupied Jammu & Kashmir’s special status, setting in motion a strategic plan to alter its demographics and consolidate power. What does this mean for the future of the disputed land and its people?

These politically motivated legislative changes helped the BJP government in its mission to alter the social fabric of the land. Important changes included the abrogation of Article 370, which revoked IOJK’s special autonomous status and rendered its constitution and flag obsolete.

As a union territory, IOJK now operates directly under the Indian constitution and central government, which holds legal supremacy over local legislative bodies. No major decision about IOJK’s governance can be taken by the locally elected government, with the lieutenant governor — a central government appointee — controlling bureaucratic appointments and holding a veto power over local legislation.

Article 35A of the Indian constitution was also abrogated, thereby revoking the special property rights and residency protections previously granted to the permanent residents of IOJK. Under the provision, individuals who had resided in or had legally acquired property in the region before 1954 were recognised as permanent residents, ensuring their exclusive rights to government employment, property ownership and state welfare benefits.

With its removal, restrictions on land acquisition were lifted, enabling non-locals to purchase property in the region. This change also opened government employment and state benefits to non-residents, increasing competition for resources traditionally reserved for the local population. Additionally, new domicile regulations and security measures further undermined the locals’ residency rights and restricted their ability to voice dissent.

A CONVENIENT POWER VACUUM

These sweeping changes took place at a time when no local legislative assembly was functioning in IOJK, local political leaders were detained, internet and communications were restricted, and security personnel were heavily deployed in the streets.

With presidential rule imposed and no elected state government in place, these “reforms” had the central parliament acting on behalf of the state legislature. The circumstances provided the BJP with a strategic window to fulfil a nationalist promise without meaningful opposition. The timing ensured that this was done in a rapid fashion.

Citing security concerns, liberal market theories and governance efficiency, the BJP managed to consolidate power over a strategic location, weaken regional political parties and initiate the process of changing electoral demographics.

The legislative changes were only the first phase of BJP’s broader strategy for IOJK. Since the changes, the government has announced multiple development projects, including roads, tunnels and railways, aimed at boosting connectivity. This, again, comes at the expense of locals, whose agricultural lands are being acquired with uncertain promises of compensation.

With new settlements constructed for outsiders and ambitions to integrate the territory more closely with the rest of India, there is a growing fear that the Modi government’s plan is to engineer demographic shifts through an influx of new settlers.

DEVELOPMENT OR DISPLACEMENT?

While the BJP government maintains its stance on the effectiveness of these measures, their implementation tells a different story. Economic incentives opening up IOJK to outside investment, which were supposed to benefit the locals, are lining the pockets of foreign investors.

Citing national security concerns for these “reforms” is also a claim that can be well disputed. Through unilateral legislation, there has been increased militarisation and growing local resentment, conditions that historically breed regional instability and extremism.

Modi has effectively reframed the discourse on IOJK by painting a picture of Article 370 and Article 35A as being discriminatory and a threat to India’s unity. This narrative stands in stark contrast to India’s raison d’etre — its “unity in diversity.” IOJK has had decades of constitutional protection and safeguards in place to preserve regional stability and protect the vulnerability of the local population. The Modi government’s approach to Kashmir disregards historical precedents and reneges on promises made during the accession process.

The National Archives of India still houses the “Instrument of Accession” signed by Maharaja Hari Singh, the last sovereign ruler of Jammu and Kashmir, which explicitly outlined the conditions under which Kashmir would accede. The stipulations limited Kashmir’s accession to the subjects of defence, foreign affairs and communications, while ensuring local autonomy over all other affairs.

From 1947 onwards, Indian prime ministers and government officials have given public commitments to the conditions surrounding Kashmir’s accession and the right to its autonomy. These historical commitments have now been abandoned, while the residents of the disputed region themselves have been marginalised, serving the BJP’s dual goals of power consolidation and nationalist appeal.

The Modi government argues that Article 370 was designated as a “temporary provision” from the outset, and their actions merely concluded what was an inevitable transition. However, the resolution of this “temporary provision” was never meant to be dictated unilaterally, but rather determined through multilateral discussions, with IOJK’s unique relationship with the Indian Union forming the basis of any decision.

With new rules and regulations, the locals have to fear for something more than their livelihoods, safety or cultural identity — they now fear losing their rightful place in their homeland. Kashmiris are no longer fighting for liberation or for autonomy; they are now fighting for their own place in the land they have always known as home.

The writer is a journalist and Pulitzer Centre fellow. He can be reached at wasaymir10@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, EOS, March 16th, 2025