Emotions and levels of threat affect communities’ resilience during extreme events

Stevens Institute of Technology researchers use mathematical modeling to assess whether cohesive communities are more resilient

Stevens Institute of Technology

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Hoboken, N.J., April 14, 2025 — Tightly connected communities tend to be more resilient when facing extreme events such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods or wildfires, says Jose Ramirez-Marquez, who develops metrics to analyze, quantify and ultimately improve performance of urban systems. 

Ramirez-Marquez, associate professor and division director of Enterprise Science and Engineering at Stevens, who grew up in the earthquake-prone Mexico City knows this first-hand. “Whenever there's an earthquake, a city-wide alarm goes off and everybody leaves wherever they are and stays in the middle of the street — that’s a prevention phase,” he says. “Then there’s a restoration phase when people engage with others in the community, whether it’s sharing food and water or helping rescue people from under the debris.” The community’s solidarity and togetherness — one for all and all for one, per a Latin proverb — are key to bouncing back.

In scientific terms, this togetherness is defined as community cohesion, which encapsulates the sense of belonging, mutual support among members and shared values or sentiments, all of which boost community’s ability to withstand disasters. But whether this cohesion directly influences how well a community recovers from extreme events is not known, explains Alexander Gilgur who had studied this subject with Ramirez-Marquez as a Ph.D. student. “Resilience is a measure of how quickly and/or effortlessly the system recovers from a disturbance,” says Gilgur. “The causal relationship between cohesion and resilience appears logical, but it has not been proven mathematically.”

To address that issue, Gilgur and Ramirez-Marquez developed mathematical techniques to measure community cohesion and its resilience, which they outlined in a recent paper, published in the journal of Socio-Economic Planning Sciences. They investigated two case studies of the same San Francisco Bay Area community during 2020 wildfires and during 2022-23 rainstorms.

In their work, they found that during the less intense adverse events such the rainstorms, the community performance improved despite the increasing stress levels. However, in high-stress disturbances such as the wildfires, the community’s performance suffered. “We found that there’s a negative correlation between the resilience of a community and the strength of disturbance,” says Ramirez-Marquez. 

In fact, in some cases, the disturbance could be so strong that people may forsake their community. Ramirez-Marquez cites the recent Los Angeles fires example (which wasn’t part of the study, but is telling), where more affluent residents hired private firefighters to keep their houses safe. “So when the stress is very strong, some might say, ‘oh, well, I don't care about the community, I care about myself.’ The stress can be so high that the concept of community cohesion no longer stands.” 

The scientists also found that the emotion intensity has a strong effect on community cohesion. “For helping communities be more resilient, emotional engagement is a very important factor,” says Gulgur, adding that it doesn’t matter whether emotions are positive or negative. “Anger and fear are equally powerful as joy and love.” On the contrary, people’s economic level does not have a direct effect on the community cohesion, “because the disaster might affect everyone,” says Ramirez-Marquez.

He notes that developing metrics to assess community cohesiveness and resilience offers practical benefits. If we can establish the causal link between cohesiveness and resilience, we can then set thresholds, limits or targets — and use these metrics to implement policies that aim to reach the desired numbers to improve resilience.

“Community cohesiveness is essentially a social glue that holds people together,” Ramirez-Marquez says. Quantifying that glue is challenging, yet being able to do so can help indicate whether a given community is resilient or can be stronger. “These metrics can then be used by policymakers to implement policies that make communities more resilient.”

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Journal

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences

Article Title

San Francisco Bay area community cohesion and resilience: Two case studies

Article Publication Date

14-Apr-2025

 

Study reveals erasing inequality could prevent hundreds of adverse births annually in major UK city

High percentages of adverse birth outcomes in vulnerable communities could be alleviated by reducing odds to the same levels less vulnerable women experience

Frontiers

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In Birmingham, 43% of the population live in the most deprived 10% of neighborhoods in England. It is well known that deprivation can lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes, including low birth weight, premature birth, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality.

Now, researchers there examined the association between demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors and the risk of adverse birth outcomes in Birmingham and neighboring Solihull, an area much less affected by deprivation.

“Within the study population, there were significant differences in the odds of adverse birth outcomes and the risk factors of adverse birth outcomes by ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation,” said Dr David Ellis, a statistician at Birmingham City Council and first author of the article published in Frontiers in Public Health. “We estimated that 48% of low-weight births and 15% of premature births would not have occurred if all women had the same level of risk as White women living in less deprived areas.”

Deprivation and adverse birth outcomes

The researchers included more than 40,000 births in Birmingham and Solihull between October 2020 and April 2023 in their dataset. In their analysis, they included demographic data, information on housing and finances as well as the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). On a scale to five, the national IMD ranks neighborhoods from most (one) to least (five) deprived. It combines data on employment, education, health, disability, crime, housing barriers, and lived environment. The outcomes for each examined group were compared to the outcomes for White British women, aged 20-29, living in an area with an IMD of 3 or more without known risk factors (reference group), and controlled for other factors, including smoking.

“Each local area has a unique population demography and health challenges,” Ellis explained. “The diverse population included in our study provides high enough numbers to meaningfully investigate inequalities by ethnicity and how this relates to deprivation.”

Ethnicity was found to be a significant risk factor for all examined adverse birth outcomes. Mothers for whom no ethnicity was recorded faced the greatest odds of premature birth, stillbirth, and neonatal death. Almost all ethnic groups experienced a higher rate of premature and low-weight births than the reference group.  Living in a more deprived area or experiencing housing issues or financial strain also increased the odds of negative outcomes. Delayed first antenatal appointments also resulted in increased odds.

No easy fix

While the study did not set out to be representative beyond Birmingham and Solihull and direct transferability of the results is not given, the size and diversity of the study population could provide beneficial insights into similar metropolitan regions with large diverse communities, the researchers said.

Not all births from Birmingham and Solihull hospitals were included in the data, and while the study included births spanning 2.5 years, data from a longer time period could reveal additional health inequalities. “The majority of mothers in Birmingham and Solihull live in deprived areas, and it is difficult to really understand the impact of socioeconomic deprivation,” Ellis said. “Therefore, despite being strongly associated with adverse outcomes in our study, these associations are likely underestimated.”

The researchers hope that sharing these results will support the region in making improvements and looking at how this might be undertaken on a larger footprint. “Different levels of interventions could address the identified inequalities, but there is no easy fix,” Ellis concluded.

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Journal

Frontiers in Public Health

DOI

10.3389/fpubh.2025.1544903 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Wider Determinants of Adverse Birth Outcomes in Birmingham & Solihull

Article Publication Date

15-Apr-2025

 

No “uncanny valley” effect in science-telling AI avatars

For science communication, realistic avatars may foster more trustworthiness than cartoon-like ones, says a new paper in JCOM

Sissa Medialab

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A composite image of the avatars used in the experiments. 

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Credit: Jasmin Baake at al

If you’re among the 1.5 billion people worldwide using TikTok, you may have come across exceptional “testimonials” like Nikola Tesla or Marie Curie delivering short science-related messages that have garnered millions of views. This is just one of many examples where AI-generated avatars are used to communicate science — a strategy that might also have its drawbacks.

The generation of images and animations through artificial intelligence is a rapidly growing field, constantly improving in quality. Yet many avatars, though realistic, still present minor flaws — glitches, delays, inconsistent facial expressions or lip-syncing — sometimes barely noticeable, but still easily picked up by a human observer.

Jasmin Baake, researcher at the Center for Advanced Internet Studies (CAIS), Bochum, Germany, and the other authors of the study realized that these avatars could trigger a phenomenon known in cognitive science as the “uncanny valley.” The uncanny valley describes a human reaction to humanoid avatars (digital or robotic): when they look hyper-realistic but not quite perfect, they may evoke strong discomfort, while more stylized or cartoonish humanoid figures tend not to. The uncanny valley can provoke outright rejection in viewers, and Baake and colleagues wondered to what extent the humanlike characteristics of AI-avatars representing science communicators influence the trustworthiness attributed to them by the viewer. “We wanted to do research on the perception of these avatars and especially on how their degree of realism and their gender might impact the trustworthiness perception of the recipient,” explains Baake. 

The study (conducted in Germany, in German) involved a series of videos featuring AI-generated avatars portraying science communicators — both male and female. The experimental conditions were four, varying by avatar realism (very high vs. cartoonish style) and gender (male or female). The nearly 500 participants were recruited through a representative online sample in Germany, selected to reflect the population in terms of age, gender, and education.

“For the degree of realism, we assumed that with the uncanny valley hypothesis in mind, the more stylistic avatars, so the ones that looked a bit more cartoonish, would be perceived as more trustworthy”, says Baake, “and, based on existing literature on gendered perceptions of science communicators — which show that male scientists are often associated with greater competence — combined with concerns that AI-generated avatars may reflect and reinforce such stereotypes due to biased training data, we hypothesized that male avatars would be perceived as more competent, and therefore more trustworthy overall, than female avatars.”

However, Baake and colleagues were surprised: in their experiments, the realistic avatars were rated more positively than the cartoon-style ones. In particular, the questionnaires given to participants after viewing the videos assessed perceived competence, integrity, and benevolence of the avatars, which together reflect perceived trustworthiness. The more realistic avatars scored slightly higher across all three dimensions. As for gender, the effect was partial: male avatars were perceived as more competent, but no significant differences were found in terms of integrity or benevolence.

“With our findings, we could not find a descent into the uncanny valley with a higher degree of realism, at least in our conditions,” comments Baake. Additionally, individual factors — such as viewers’ prior AI knowledge and trust in science — were found to moderate trustworthiness perceptions. According to the study’s findings, more realistic, human-like avatars appear to be suitable for communicating scientific content. However, Baake emphasizes that while no uncanny valley effect was found here, future studies should test a broader range of realism levels to investigate whether an intermediate uncanny valley effect might emerge between the two conditions tested so far, and whether people perceive the realism of avatars differently depending on the observer.

Realistic male avatar used in the experiments

Realistic female avatar used in the experiments

Cartoonish female avatar used in the experiments

Cartoonish male avatar used in the experiments

Credit

Jasmin Baake et al

 Male cartoonish (video) [VIDEO] 

Female realistic (video) [VIDEO] 

Journal

Journal of Science Communication

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Balancing realism and Trustworthiness: Avatars in Science communication

Article Publication Date

15-Apr-2025

 

New UNCG research shows southern shrews shrink in winter

University of North Carolina at Greensboro

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Dr. Bryan McLean and undergraduate Leo Ivey in the biology department use UNCG's Micro-CT scanner to image masked shrews, a small insectivorous mammal from western North Carolina and widespread in northern North America.

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Credit: Sean Norona, UNCG Photographer

Newly published research from UNC Greensboro biology professor Dr. Bryan McLean and colleagues shows that the masked shrew, a small, mole-like mammal found in the Appalachian Mountains, shrinks its body and braincase to conserve energy during winter months.     The study, published in the May 2025 issue of The American Naturalist, found that the masked shrew (Sorex cinereus) reduces its body mass by 13 percent in the colder months; the creature then grows larger in spring when conditions improve. In addition to a shrinking body, the team also found seasonal changes in the height of the creature’s braincase (the portion of the skull that houses and protects the brain) and the length of the femur.   “Shrinking the body and its parts is in fact a clever survival strategy,” says McLean. “And it’s one that’s important for us to understand as mammals face a constantly changing planet.”   Known as Dehnel’s phenomenon, this seasonal shrinking has been observed in other mammals but most often in shrews, which are small, insect-eating animals unrelated to rodents. Dehnel’s phenomenon is an extreme example of “phenotypic plasticity” – the ability of an organism to alter its physical form in response to environmental changes.   “We don’t know how common Dehnel’s phenomenon is among mammals, but we know it is rarer in nature than other energy-saving strategies mammals use, like hibernation,” said McLean.    McLean and his team of graduate and undergraduate students analyzed 125 masked shews that were trapped in North Carolina’s Pisgah National Forest from 2021 to 2023. The team used “pitfall traps” buried in leaf litter to capture the shrews. The animals were weighed in the field, then brought to UNCG’s Joint School of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology for microCT scans to examine various skeletal dimensions. Specimens and associated data are archived in the UNCG Mammal Collection. Researchers from Georgia Southern University were also involved in the research.   “Our population of masked shrews is the southern-most yet studied for these multiple different traits,” said McLean, “and the femur measurements we made are the first to show the magnitude of seasonal change in the long bones of the skeleton. This shows that shrews rapidly remodel much of their skeleton.”    Most prior studies of the phenomenon come from Europe. To place their new results in context, the researchers also conducted a meta-analysis of 74 other studies from across the Northern Hemisphere, combining that research with their own findings to understand what factors drive Dehnel’s phenomenon. McLean and his team developed statistical models that accurately predicted the amount of body shrinkage they observed based solely on the climate at the North Carolina site.    “This analysis reveals the generality of Dehnel’s phenomenon in Sorex shrews,” explains McLean. “Across many populations of shrews on three continents, the degree of body mass and braincase height shrinkage is greatest in areas with the lowest cool-season temperatures. So, fall and winter temperatures predict Dehnel’s phenomenon in these animals.”   “Phenotypic plasticity is a key way that shrews and many other species respond to changes in temperature,” McLean notes. “By learning more about this process, we can start to understand how mammals buffer against rapidly changing climates.”
 

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Journal

The American Naturalist

DOI

10.1086/735018 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Seasonal Body Size Plasticity and the Generality of Dehnel's Phenomenon in Sorex Shrews

 

Children exposed to brain-harming chemicals while sleeping

Scientists urge mattress manufacturers and governments to act

Green Science Policy Institute

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Research suggests children may breathe and absorb plasticizers called phthalates, flame retardants, and other harmful chemicals from their mattresses while they sleep. 

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Credit: University of Toronto

Babies and young children may breathe and absorb plasticizers called phthalates, flame retardants, and other harmful chemicals from their mattresses while they sleep, according to a pair of peer-reviewed studies published today from the University of Toronto in Environmental Science & Technology and Environmental Science & Technology Letters. These chemicals are linked to neurological and reproductive problems, asthma, hormone disruption, and cancer.    

"Sleep is vital for brain development, particularly for infants and toddlers. However, our research suggests that many mattresses contain chemicals that can harm kids’ brains,” says senior author Miriam Diamond, professor at the University of Toronto. “This is a wake-up call for manufacturers and policymakers to ensure our children’s beds are safe and support healthy brain development.”

In the first study, researchers measured chemical concentrations in 25 bedrooms of children aged 6 months to 4 years. They detected concerning levels of more than two dozen phthalates, flame retardants, and UV-filters in bedroom air, with the highest levels lurking around the beds. In a companion study, researchers tested 16 newly purchased children's mattresses and confirmed that they are likely the major source of these chemicals in children’s sleeping environments. When the researchers simulated a child's body temperature and weight on the mattresses, chemical emissions increased substantially, as much as by several times. The mattresses were purchased in Canada, but most contained materials originating from other countries including the U.S. and Mexico. Because of integrated mattress markets and supply chains, the results are likely to apply to mattresses purchased throughout North America.

The phthalates and organophosphate ester flame retardants measured in this study are hormone disruptors and linked to neurological harms, including learning disorders, reduced IQ scores, behavioral problems, and impaired memory. Some are also linked to childhood asthma and cancer. Several UV-filters are hormone disruptors. Children are uniquely vulnerable to exposure, given that they are still developing, have hand-to-mouth behaviors, and have breathing rates ten times higher than adults. They also have more permeable skin and three times the skin surface area relative to their body weight than adults.

The high levels of flame retardants in most of the mattresses tested were puzzling, given these chemicals are not necessary to pass neither Canadian nor U.S. mattress flammability standards. Flame retardants are linked to neurological, reproductive, and hormonal harm as well as cancer, and also have no proven fire-safety benefit as used in mattresses.

"Parents should be able to lay their children down for sleep knowing they are safe and snug,” said co-author Arlene Blum, Executive Director of the Green Science Policy Institute. “Flame retardants have a long history of harming our children’s cognitive function and ability to learn. It’s concerning that these chemicals are still being found in children’s mattresses even though we know they have no proven fire-safety benefit, and aren’t needed to comply with flammability standards.”

The researchers call for manufacturers to be more vigilant about the chemicals in children’s mattresses through testing. Further, stronger regulations on the use of flame retardants and phthalate plasticizers in children’s mattresses are needed. In Canada, the authors recommend extending restrictions on certain plasticizers from toys and objects to be mouthed to include mattresses and other bedding items and passing long-proposed restrictions on two flame retardants. Several mattresses had chemicals that are banned or restricted in Canada, suggesting that manufacturers need to test children’s mattresses for these chemicals and other unnecessary chemicals before putting them on the market.  

In the meantime, there are actions parents can take to reduce their children’s exposure. The authors recommend decluttering your child’s sleeping area by reducing the number of pillows, blankets, and toys. They also recommend washing and refreshing your child’s bedding and bed clothing frequently since these act as a protective barrier to reduce exposure. Finally, they say that undyed or neutral color fabrics are likely safer since keeping strong colors requires the addition of UV-filters and other additives that may be harmful.

Both studies were conducted as part of lead author Sara Vaezafshar’s PhD dissertation at the University of Toronto and funded by the University of Toronto Fellowship, Ontario Graduate Scholarship, and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

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Journal

Environmental Science & Technology

DOI

10.1021/acs.est.5c03560 

Article Title

Are Sleeping Children Exposed to Plasticizers, Flame Retardants, and UV-Filters from Their Mattresses?

Article Publication Date

15-Apr-2025