'Warning shot': Inside MAGA’s scheme to destabilize Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on June 16, 2025, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok/Flickr)

Alex Henderson 

March 02, 2026

ALTERNET

For many years, Canada and the United States — both members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since 1949 — were close allies and trading partners. But U.S./Canada relations took a turn for the worse when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened its northern neighbor with steep tariffs and called for Canada to become "the 51st state" — an idea that Prime Minister Mark Carney and millions of other Canadians are adamantly against.

But in an article published by The New Republic on March 2, Ottawa, Ontario-based journalist John Last details MAGA efforts to exploit separatists in Canada's Alberta province.

Last explains, "Recent months have seen the escalation of a brazen campaign by separatists in the oil-rich province of Alberta to dismember the country and lease its resources to an expansionist American regime, with direct support from officials in the U.S. government…. A recent push for a referendum on independence has achieved unprecedented success, in no small part due to tacit support from the Trump-aligned provincial government."

Last notes that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith "was one of the first Canadian officials to kiss the ring of Trump at Mar-a-Lago, and has long tested the limits of her powers to pursue his crusades and causes at home."

Duane Bratt, who teaches at Mount Royal University in Alberta, told The New Republic, "Since the moment Alberta became a province (in 1905), there's been a movement to separate…. There is an ideological alignment with Trump. On gun rights, climate change, trans rights, renewable energy, wokeness.… it's all consistent with American right-wing movements."

Patrick Lennox, a former intelligence officer for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, told The New Republic, "There's a real national security threat there. This is the perfect scenario for foreign interference."

Lennox views as the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as a "warning shot" for Canada and other countries rich in resources.

"The Trump Administration's crusade against Canada may have deeper causes," Last explains. "Figures like Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon, who has explicitly compared Canada to Ukraine, see Canada as a bastion of decadent liberalism in the West that must be broken and subdued, one way or another."

Key allies ditch Trump with new 'landmark' deal that ignores US in critical partnership

President Donald Trump with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the White House Oval Office on May 6, 2025 (The White House/Flickr)

Thomas Kika

March 02, 2026 

ALTERNET

Canada on Monday announced "landmark" new deals with India as it moves away from reliance on the U.S., per a report from The Daily Beast, as Donald Trump continued to alienate allies with his military strikes on Iran.

Per the report, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a major 10-year "strategic energy partnership as well as agreements on technology, critical minerals, space, defense and education." The partnership will also include a free trade deal by the end of the year as both countries, who are ostensibly key allies of the U.S., seek to avoid exposure to Trump's sweeping global tariffs. The deal is intended to generate as much as $50 billion in bilateral trade between Canada and India.

Spurred into action by the unprecedented political and economic hostility from the U.S. during Trump's second term, Canada has been seeking new partnerships with other nations. Carney is scheduled to visit with two other key U.S. allies, Australia and Japan, in the coming days. Speaking about the new deal with India, the Canadian prime minister touted just how much engagement with India has resulted from Trump's aggressive global trade moves, and celebrated the two nations "charting our own course for the future."

"There has been more engagement between the Canadian and Indian governments in the last year than there has been in more than two decades combined," Carney said. "This is not merely the renewal of a relationship, it is the expansion of a valued partnership, with new ambition, focus and foresight. A partnership between two confident countries, charting our own course for the future."

The announcement came three days into Trump's unpopular military operation against Iran, conducted in cooperation with Israel. Polls have recently found that more Americans were opposed to the idea of military action against the Middle Eastern nation than supported it, with allies close to Trump worried that he will turn off his own MAGA base by focusing on foreign conflicts that they have long opposed.

As Canada creates new partnerships overseas, allies have also begun to distance themselves from Trump's operation in Iran. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday said that the country would not be aiding the U.S. in the campaign, stating that his government "does not believe in regime change from the skies." Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said that the U.S. will not be allowed to use military bases in Spain to conduct operations in Iran, with the country's government condemning the strikes.

Trump Humiliated by Allies While He’s Busy Starting a War

Janna Brancolini
Mon, March 2, 2026 

DAILY BEAST


The Washington Post / The Washington Post via Getty Im(The Washington Post)


Canada reached a “landmark” deal on energy, technology, and innovation with India while President Donald Trump was busy ordering deadly strikes on Iran.

As the Trump administration’s “major combat operations” against Iran entered their third day Monday, Canada’s Mark Carney and India’s Narendra Modi announced a 10-year strategic energy partnership as well as agreements on technology, critical minerals, space, defense, and education, the BBC reported.

Donald Trump's previously warm relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has soured thanks to the president's tariffs and his false claims about negotiating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. / JIM WATSON / AFP via Getty ImagesMore

They also agreed to conclude a free trade deal, which has been discussed on and off for the past 15 years, by the end of 2026.

The two countries hope to reach $50 billion in bilateral trade as they both look for ways to lessen the impact of Trump’s trade wars, according to the BBC.

After he leaves India, Carney is scheduled to travel to Australia and then Japan as part of his effort to diversify Canada’s trade after Trump, 79, imposed crushing tariffs on products from dozens of U.S. trade partners, including Canada.

The president is also considering blowing up the United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which he signed during his first term in office, to get back at Carney, who has responded forcefully to Trump’s threats to annex Canada and make it the 51st U.S. state.

Earlier this month, Trump raged at Carney for traveling to Beijing to negotiate a trade deal with China, which has spent the last year trying to present itself as a more reliable trading partner than the mercurial Trump.

Canada agreed to lower its tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in return for China reducing its import taxes on Canadian farm products.

Donald Trump's Truth Social post about the Gordie Howe International Bridge. / Donald Trump/Truth Social

Trump was so upset about the deal that he brought it up during a completely unrelated conversation about the U.K. and China, and posted multiple Truth Socials about how China was “successfully and completely taking over” Canada and would “terminate ALL ice hockey” there.

He also threatened to prevent a new bridge from opening between Ontario and Michigan.

Those outbursts suggest the president will not be happy with Canada’s latest deal with India.

The U.S. and Israel carried out a fresh wave of attacks on targets in Iran's capital of Tehran on Sunday. / Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images

So far, though, he hasn’t weighed in. On Monday morning, the president took a rare break from posting on social media as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth held a press conference on the Iran strikes, which killed the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Four U.S. soldiers have been killed in retaliatory strikes across the Middle East

The Daily Beast has reached out to the White House for comment.

‘You aren’t trapped’: Nurses are choosing Canada over Trump’s America

Surgical nurse Natasha McClinton in April 2020, Wikimedia Common

Brett Kelman, 

KFF Health News

February 26, 2026

Last month, Justin and Amy Miller packed their vehicles with three kids, two dogs, a pet bearded dragon, and whatever belongings they could fit, then drove 2,000 miles from Wisconsin to British Columbia to leave President Donald Trump’s America.

The Millers resettled on Vancouver Island, their scenic refuge accessible only by ferry or plane. Justin went to work in the emergency room at Nanaimo Regional General Hospital, where he became one of at least 20 U.S.-trained nurses hired since April.

Fear of Trump, some of the nurses said, was why they left.

“There are so many like-minded people out there,” said Justin, who now works elbow to elbow with Americans in Canada. “You aren’t trapped. You don’t have to stay. Health care workers are welcomed with open arms around the world.”

The Millers are part of a new surge of American nurses, doctors, and other health care workers moving to Canada, and specifically British Columbia, where more than 1,000 U.S.-trained nurses have been approved to work since April. As the Trump administration enacts increasingly authoritarian policies and decimates funding for public health, insurance, and medical research, many nurses have felt the draw of Canada’s progressive politics, friendly reputation, and universal health care system.

Additionally, some nurses were incensed last year when the Trump administration said it would reclassify nursing as a nonprofessional degree, which would impose strict federal limits on the loans nursing students could receive.

Canada is poised to capitalize. Two of its most populous provinces, Ontario and British Columbia, have streamlined the licensing process for American nurses since Trump returned to the White House. British Columbia also launched a $5 million advertising campaign last year to recruit nurses from California, Oregon, and Washington state.

“With the chaos and uncertainty happening in the U.S., we are seizing the opportunity to attract the talent we need,” Josie Osborne, the province’s health minister, said in a statement announcing the campaign.


Fears Realized

Amy Miller, a nurse practitioner, said she and her husband were determined to move their children out of the country because they felt Trump’s second term would inevitably spiral into violence.

First, the Millers got nursing licenses in New Zealand, but when the job search took too long, they pivoted to Canada.

Justin was offered a job within weeks.

Amy found one within three months.

So they moved. And just a few days later, the Millers watched with horror from afar as their fears came true.

As federal immigration forces clashed with protesters in Minneapolis on Jan. 24, federal agents fatally shot an ICU nurse, Alex Pretti, as he filmed a confrontation and appeared to be trying to shield a woman who was knocked down. Video of the killing showed border agents pinning Pretti to the ground before seizing his concealed, licensed handgun and opening fire on him.


The Trump administration quickly called Pretti a “domestic terrorist” who intended to kill federal agents. That allegation was disputed by eyewitness videos that circulated on social media and spurred widespread outrage, including from nurses and nursing organizations, some of whom invoked the profession’s duty to care for the vulnerable.

“I don’t want to say it was expected, but that’s why we are here,” Amy Miller said. “Even our oldest kid, she was like: ‘It’s OK, Mom, because we are not there anymore. We are safe here.’ So she recognizes that, and she’s not even in middle school yet.”

Both the U.S. and Canada have a severe need for nurses. The U.S. is projected to be short about 270,000 registered nurses, plus at least 120,000 licensed practical nurses, by 2028, according to recent estimates from the Health Resources and Services Administration. In Canada, nursing job vacancies tripled from 2018 to 2023, when they reached nearly 42,000, according to a recent report from the Montreal Economic Institute, a Canadian think tank.

When asked to comment, the White House noted that industry data shows the number of nurses licensed in the U.S. increased in 2025. It dismissed accounts of nurses moving to Canada as “anecdotes of individuals with severe cases of Trump derangement syndrome.”


“The American health care workforce is the finest in the world, and it continues to expand under President Trump,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. “Employment opportunities in the American health care system remain robust, with career advancement and pay that far exceed that of other developed nations.”

‘A Sense of Relief’

It is unknown precisely how many American nurses have moved north since Trump returned to office, because some Canadian provinces do not track or release such statistics.

British Columbia, which has done the most to recruit Americans, approved the licensing applications of 1,028 U.S.-trained nurses from when the province’s streamlined application process took effect in April 2025 through January, according to the British Columbia College of Nurses and Midwives. In all of 2023, only 112 applicants from the U.S. were approved, the agency said. In 2024, it was 127.


Increased interest from American nurses was also confirmed by nursing associations in Ontario and Alberta, as well as by the nationwide Canadian Nurses Association.

Angela Wignall, CEO of Nurses and Nurse Practitioners of British Columbia, said American nurses used to move north because they had fallen in love with Canada (or a Canadian). But more recently, she said, she had met nurses who feared the White House would spur violence and vigilantism, particularly against families that included same-sex couples.

“Some of them were living in fear of the administration, and they shared a sense of relief when crossing the border,” Wignall said. “As a Canadian, it’s heartbreaking. And also a joy to welcome them.”

Vancouver Island, which has a population of about 860,000, has gained 64 U.S.-trained nurses since April, including those at Nanaimo Regional, said Andrew Leyne, a spokesperson for the island’s health agency.

One of the nurses was Susan Fleishman, a Canadian who moved to the U.S. as a child, then worked for 23 years in American emergency rooms before leaving the country in November.

Fleishman said hateful rhetoric from Trump has fueled an angry division that has permeated and soured American life.

“It wasn’t an easy move — that’s for sure. But I think it’s definitely worth it,” she said, happily back in Canada. “I find there is a lot more kindness here. And I think that will keep me here.”

Brandy Frye, who also worked for decades in American ERs, said she moved to Vancouver Island last year after waiting to see whether Mark Carney would become Canada’s prime minister. Carney’s rise was widely viewed as a rejection of Trumpism.

Meanwhile, Frye said, the California hospital where she worked had been stripping words associated with diversity and equity out of its paperwork to appease the Trump administration. She couldn’t stand it.

“It felt like a step against everything I believe in,” Frye said. “And I didn’t feel like I belonged there anymore.”

Like many of the American nurses who have moved to Vancouver Island, Frye was first wooed to the area by a viral video that was meant to attract tourist dollars but ended up doing much more.

About a year ago, Tod Maffin, a social media content creator and former CBC Radio host, invited Americans to the port city of Nanaimo for a weekend event designed to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the local economy.

Maffin said about 350 people attended the April event.

“A lot of them were health care workers looking for an escape route,” Maffin said. “They were there to help support our economy but also to look into Canada.”

Maffin saw an opportunity. He repurposed the event website into a recruiting tool and launched a Discord chatroom to help Americans relocate.

Maffin said he believes the campaign helped about 35 health care workers move to Vancouver Island. Volunteers in more than 30 other Canadian communities have since duplicated his website in an effort to attract their own American nurses and doctors.

“There are communities across Canada where the emergency room closes at night because one nurse is out. That’s how thin staffing is,” Maffin said.

“One new nurse in a small town, or in a midsized city like Nanaimo,” he said, “makes a difference.”

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

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Please Advise! Is Trump’s Brain Totally Pucked?

Why else vow to block the Gordie Howe bridge while proclaiming China will ban the Stanley Cup?

Steve Burgess 

17 Feb 2026

The Tyee

Donald Trump’s threats to halt the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge would have drawn a sharp elbow from the hockey legend. Howe photo by Doug Ball, the Canadian Press. Trump photo via Shutterstock.

[Editor’s note: Steve Burgess is an accredited spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE, situated on the lovely campus of PO Box 7650, Cayman Islands. In this space he dispenses PR advice to politicians, the rich and famous, the troubled and well-heeled, the wealthy and gullible.]

Dear Dr. Steve,

Donald Trump has threatened to block the opening of the new Gordie Howe International Bridge linking Detroit and Windsor over his continued complaints about Canada. “I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them,” Trump wrote. The president posted his online rant shortly after Matthew Moroun, the billionaire owner of the nearby tolled Ambassador Bridge, met with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick.

Will the bridge ever open, Dr. Steve?

Signed,

Red Kelly


Dear Red,

Before discussing this further, let’s pause first to consider Trump’s online post. Like farmers who learn to distinguish hail clouds from incipient tornadoes, we have all become unwilling experts in Trump storm fronts. At this point it’s common knowledge that, morally, Trump has no bottom, but that observation does not convey the astonishing breadth of his absurdity. This guy is giving dementia a bad name. His bridge babble was one for the ages.

After some preliminary spittle about perfidious, predatory Canada, the stupidity of “Barack Hussein Obama” and the absence of American poison from Canadian liquor store shelves, Trump’s Truth Social ramble turned to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade deal with China. “The first thing China will do is terminate ALL ice hockey being played in Canada, and permanently eliminate the Stanley Cup,” he wrote.

Eliminate the Stanley Cup? Why? Is China cutting a deal with Florida? And if China truly intends to destroy the game of hockey, could that explain what’s been going on with the Canucks? Did China trade Quinn Hughes to those troublemaking socialists in Minnesota?


Billionaires Don’t Control Us


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Trump also opined that China will “eat Canada alive! We’ll just get the leftovers.”

“The leftovers?” So Canada is a half-empty Styrofoam container of moo shu pork with a couple of stale wraps? In the world according to Trump, it seems the United States and China are a jackal and a hyena barking over a water buffalo carcass, or two drunken frat bros staring at the last remaining slice of Domino’s Pepperoni Feast. Canada is not the 51st state — we’re the fifth plate of jumbo shrimp at the Sizzler in Grand Rapids.

Trump’s latest Mad Libs effort apparently followed a conversation with Lutnick. The commerce secretary had been lobbied by Matthew Moroun, member of the Billionaire Brotherhood and owner of the Ambassador Bridge. The Gordie Howe International Bridge will cut into Moroun’s toll revenues, so Lutnick probably endorsed the plan to stop truck traffic over the new crossing. Considering the recent revelation that Lutnick was chummy with Jeffrey Epstein, you wouldn’t expect him to have a problem with trafficking. In fact they should probably call it the Epstein Bridge, since it’s sitting right there but Trump doesn’t want it open.

To be fair, Detroit-Windsor isn’t the only crossing point targeted for closure recently. Last week, airspace over El Paso, Texas, was briefly closed, apparently because U.S. Customs and Border Protection used lasers to shoot down some party balloons. Overreaction? Maybe. But maybe the party had been a quinceañera. Maybe they had been speaking Spanish and playing the music of Bad Bunny. For U.S. border agents, that’s triggering.



Trump’s America Comes for Alberta read more

As for Gordie Howe, he spoke Canadian, often with his fists. It was Howe who inspired the defiant “Elbows Up” slogan. Historically, he is Even Worse Bunny. Clearly, Trump has been triggered too.

How to placate the president? Qatar bribed Trump with a $400-million jet. The bridge reportedly cost $3.8 billion. Seems a bit much.

There’s another Gordie Howe Bridge in Saskatoon though. We could give him that and hope he won’t notice. Kind of like a box of Kirkland chocolates on Valentine’s Day. Just as good, really.

Trump says he will keep the Gordie Howe International Bridge closed until the U.S. is “fully compensated” for all they have given Canada. Great. Not only do we get more measles, but now we get charged for them too.

Come to think of it, maybe we need to rethink this. Maybe we need to seriously consider Trump’s remark about all we have received from the U.S. And maybe that bridge ought to stay closed. 

Steve Burgess writes about politics and culture for The Tyee. Read his previous articles.

Why We ‘Wackos’ Want Alberta to Stay in Canada

The case against tying our fate to the US is simple: Sorry, not that.

Lisa Young 

17 Feb 2026

The Tyee

Lisa Young is a professor at the University of Calgary.

Who’s making sense? In Oyen, Alberta, a truck flies a modified Alberta flag with the word ‘Republic’ and an upside-down Canadian flag with a ‘No’ symbol. Photo by Don Denton, the Canadian Press.

[Editor’s note: This first appeared in political scientist Lisa Young’s Substack What Now?!? and is republished with permission.]

Faced with polling data that suggests that many Albertans have no desire to remain in an independent Alberta, apologists for the separatists have started to shout that “wacko” opponents of separation have no right to threaten to leave. (Let’s pause for a moment and appreciate the irony.)

Rather, they insist that federalists make “clear, well thought-out arguments for Alberta staying in Canada.” If only the federalists could possibly match the clear, fact-based case the separatists make! Like this document on the Alberta Prosperity Project webpage that makes the dubious promise that there would be no sales, income or corporate income taxes in a free Alberta. It’s magical thinking for the win!

Happily, Alberta federalists have been making the positive case for some time, without having to resort to magical thinking. Senator Paula Simons has written a beautiful piece in Alberta Views magazine: “The Case for Sticking Around.” A couple of paragraphs worth quoting:



Has Separatism Gone Mainstream in Alberta? read more

We are privileged to live in a country that values peace and inclusion and the rule of law. A country that encourages entrepreneurship and economic opportunity. A country that strives to balance individual rights and freedoms with the good of the collective community. A country where healthcare and public education are rights and gun ownership is not. A country where women control their own bodies and choose their own clothing, whether that’s a niqab or a bikini.

We’re not a country of polarization, but a country that values creative compromise, because we were born out of creative compromise.

On Valentine’s Day, Duane Bratt rose to the challenge and made his case. I was making the case way back in 2021! And the list goes on.

Having said all that, I want to disagree with the idea that it’s up to federalists to make a positive case for staying in Canada. It is a perfectly reasonable — and very Canadian — approach to argue simply that the status quo is preferable to the alternative.



The Wild Claims of Jeff Rath, Separatist Firebrand read more

If we look back to the years leading up to Canadian confederation, the impetus for joining together into the Canadian federation can be summed up as: “sorry, not that.” Having fought its (first?) civil war, the United States was well armed and feeling a bit expansionist. This was one of the motivators for the fathers of confederation to come together and make a deal.

The leaders of the contemporary separatist movement have made it quite clear through their words and actions that they see separation as a way to ally Alberta closely with the United States, if not to join it altogether. A “free” Alberta, they claim, would be able to build a pipeline through Montana, Idaho and Washington. It would benefit from loans from the Americans. Its sovereignty would be guaranteed by the United States.

Just as the Fathers of Confederation back in the 1860s looked south of the border, shook their heads and got busy confederating, a majority of Albertans today look at the spectacle that is Trump’s America and echo the sentiment: “Sorry, no, not that.”

Whether it’s the shorter life expectancy, lower level of life satisfaction, less functional democracy, or higher rate of economic inequality in the U.S., state-sponsored violence in the streets, or the utter dysfunction of the political system, most of us “wackos” are prepared to give that a hard pass.


Read more: Alberta

AB NDP’s Rakhi Pancholi dismantles Danielle Smith’s referendum claims

by David J. Climenhaga

February 23, 2026
RABBLE.CA

UCP strategists must be thanking their Judeo-Christian deity she’s not the leader of the Opposition!

Alberta NDP Deputy Leader Rakhi Pancholi as she eviscerated Premier Danielle Smith’s claims and policies with forensic precision during a news conference Friday.

 Credit: Alberta NDP


With Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi nowhere to be found Friday morning, Rakhi Pancholi took up the task of eviscerating the long list of intentionally confusing referendum questions announced by Premier Danielle Smith in her prime-time televised message the day before, not to mention the way the premier coddles separatists, her dog whistling about immigration, and her refusal to take responsibility for her government’s fiscal mismanagement.

“Cut the bullshit! Call the election!” Pancholi began her Friday morning news conference, cutting right to the chase.

“Danielle Smith and the UCP did not campaign on nine new referendum questions,” the Opposition party’s deputy leader immediately continued. “They do not have a mandate from Albertans for this. Not on separatism, not on pulling out of the CPP, not on breaching the Charter rights of Albertans, not on coal mining in the Eastern Slopes, and not on bringing in two-tier health care!

“The premier is trying to distract us ahead of a UCP budget that will contain billions of dollars in deficits,” Pancholi rolled on. “She’s trying to distract us from separatism – which she put on the agenda and is already putting our province at risk. The premier is blaming oil prices and immigration for her poor planning and financial mismanagement.” (And, as ever, she’s also blaming long gone former prime minister Justin Trudeau, it must be added.)

After that, it just got better. Pancholi never faltered in her forensic deconstruction of the house of cards Smith has built, starting with the premier’s plan for nine murkily worded referenda next October 19, the point of which appears to be to create a constitutional crisis in Canada that will help break up the federation.

Over the next half hour, Pancholi repeated the mild profanity she started with two more times – just to make sure everyone was awake and understood that she, at least, had had enough of Smith’s constant nonsense, and that political discourse in Alberta is shifting whether the UCP likes it or not.

One imagines the post-adolescent pundits at this province’s plethora of well-funded right-wing propaganda platforms were sharpening their crayons to accuse Pancholi of having a potty mouth. It won’t work. She sounded impassioned, not profane. And Albertans who listen to her presentation will want to hear more.

On the low oil prices the premier blames for Thursday’s sad-sack deficit budget: “Oil production is hitting record levels, and resource revenue from the past five years is the highest it has been in decades. Only the UCP can blow a resource boom!”

On the premier’s pivot to condemning immigration from demanding it: “The hypocrisy on immigration is unreal! Less than two years ago, in 2024, Danielle Smith herself asked Justin Trudeau to increase immigration levels because Alberta wanted more than what Ottawa was offering. Also in 2024, she stated publicly that she wanted to double Alberta’s population to 10 million people, grow cities like Red Deer 10 times their size to one million, all while promoting the ‘Alberta is Calling’ campaign asking people from Canada and around the world to make Alberta their home.

“She did all this without a thought or plan for how to create the jobs, build the houses, schools and hospitals that we already needed!”

And now, Pancholi continued, the premier wants us to blame immigrants and asylum seekers and to send us to the polls to vote on a raft of referenda to enable such a campaign pulled right from the pages of Donald Trump’s agenda. “Again, what a load of absolute bullshit! She’s trying to make people angry about things that she can’t even back up with facts. She’s stoking the flames and raising the temperature. This is the opposite of leadership!”

Pancholi’s performance made an interesting contrast to the premier’s “media availability” the same day, during which Smith was by turns shouty, defensive, cranky and smug, all the while offering a master class in gaslighting. Just listening to Smith was exhausting. More than a whiff of panic was in the air.

But the UCP, after all, is a party that has made a cult of avoiding deficits at any cost. Now they’re going to bring down a budget expected to have a deficit of at least $6 billion to $8 billion because … what? They haven’t figured out the price of oil fluctuates?

Once again, Alberta is reduced to playing to poor little rich kid of Confederation, only this time with a separatist problem of its own creation to complicate matters. UCP fiscal incompetence will be revealed in all its glory Thursday, and blaming Trudeau and asylum seekers isn’t going to cut the mustard with anybody except the UCP’s MAGA base.

“The UCP has been in power for six years now,” explained Pancholi. “This is the premier’s fourth budget and will now be her second big deficit. Tell me how this is not a disaster in managing Alberta’s finances!”

When a reporter suggested it might be dangerous for the NDP to demand an election – after all, they might just get their wish – Pancholi said confidently she was willing to take the risk. As she put it in her formal remarks: Danielle Smith “wants to champion direct democracy? We have a direct democracy, and it’s called a general election. Call it!”

Packed Emergency Rooms, crowded classrooms, a million Albertans without a family doctor, no caps on sky-high insurance rates, soaring utility bills, the lowest minimum wage in Canada? “Where’s the premier’s leadership on any of this?”

So, concluded Pancholi, who ran for the NDP leadership in 2024 but dropped out in favour of Nenshi when his victory was clearly inevitable: “Cut the bullshit, premier! Stop with the distractions, and if you’re so convinced this is what Albertans want, call an election and let Albertans decide.”

It was a delight to see Pancholi tear into the UCP with an aggressive spirit that has been largely missing from Alberta politics on the Opposition side since Jason Kenney defeated Rachel Notley’s one-term government in April 2019.

This is what NDP members thought they were voting for when they chose Nenshi as leader in June 2024. Instead, it has been almost completely absent since Nenshi took over.

And where was Nenshi Thursday night, immediately after Smith’s remarks, or Friday morning for the news conference Pancholi handled so well? The deputy leader assured reporters that her leader had just returned from a well-deserved vacation and would reappear soon. I’m sure the UCP was relieved.

Danielle Smith remains a talented communicator skilled at setting political narratives before the Opposition gets out of their seats. She is not to be underestimated.

Pancholi, a lawyer by profession, seems to have the ability to destroy an overconfident and glib witness with forensic precision. With 20/20 hindsight, we can see that she might have been the perfect opponent for a premier with such a casual relationship with the truth and such a destructive ideology.

We can only hope that Nenshi has the sense to set her loose on the premier while he practices politics in full sentences, or whatever his passive strategy is called.

Alberta politics


David J. Climenhaga

David Climenhaga is a journalist and trade union communicator who has worked in senior writing and editing positions with the Globe and Mail and the Calgary Herald. He left journalism after the strike... More by David J. Climenhaga

Danielle Smith announces anti-immigration referendum for Oct. 19

by David J. Climenhaga

February 20, 2026

RABBLE.CA


Alberta premier’s referenda may play in Ponoka but not in Powell River or Peterborough – that’s probably the idea.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith during her fire-free fireside chat about Alberta’s economy and her referendum plans. Credit: Government of Alberta

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith yesterday announced a raft of referendum questions for October 19 demanding provincial intrusion into federal jurisdiction, cutting services to new Canadians and other anti-immigrant measures, and seeking significant changes to the Canadian constitution.

There will be five wordy policy referenda focusing on immigration and clearly designed to appeal to the United Conservative Party (UCP)’s base, but worded to sound reasonable at an inattentive glance. There will be four additional questions asking voters to approve an effort to negotiate major constitutional changes.

Needless to say, once it gets a border or two away from Wild Rose Country’s well-trained voters, all this is likely to float about as well as the proverbial lead balloon.

But if nothing changes in the way the federation is structured, that will be just fine with Smith and her political brain trust. This is because the plan described in her 13-minute televised message last night at suppertime is clearly designed to succeed at the first step, passage by a majority of however many Albertans bother to vote, and thereafter to get bogged down in opposition from other provinces and the complexities of the Canadian Constitution’s amending formula. This will advance the United Conservative Party’s separatist agenda.

In the meantime, with her finger-pointing about how falling oil prices and Liberal politicians are responsible for rising costs and tighter spending in Alberta, her televised chat yesterday evening was also an opportunity to lower expectations for next Thursday’s provincial budget.

As retired Mount Royal University political science professor Keith Brownsey observed yesterday after the video had been aired, “what we have here is a premier blaming immigrants for her government’s failures to maintain health care, education and other social services. What she forgot to mention is that most ‘immigrants’ to Alberta come from other parts of Canada.”

“I can guarantee that there will be no constitutional changes,” Dr. Brownsey added. “She seems to be setting the province up for a vote on independence.”

Smith acknowledged that all the referenda ideas came out of her government’s directed and supporter-packed “Alberta Next” policy snake-oil road shows, but framed that as if it were a good thing.

Throughout the fire-free fireside, she blamed most of the province’s problems on lower-than-expected oil prices, immigrants, and Justin Trudeau, not necessarily in that order. The focus on immigration was widely expected, in part thanks to a couple of her advisors’ intemperate social media posts in the previous few hours.

Smith pointed to Trudeau Era immigration policies as the cause of the province’s shortage of classroom space for the children of new Albertans. Never mind her UCP government’s failure to plan for growth everyone knew for years was coming, or to fund it.

And while she barely mentioned the lack of capacity in Alberta’s hospitals that has seen them descend into chaos in recent months, that glossed over the fact it’s been more than 40 years since a new hospital was built in Edmonton while the population of Alberta’s capital city has more than doubled. It would have been hard to deny that Trudeau was prime minister for less than a quarter of that time.

Naturally, Smith also made no mention of the multi-millions of dollars her government has hosed away on ideological projects and political mischief to own the Libs in Ottawa, like that $70 million for almost unusable children’s “Tylenot” purchased during a short-lived national shortage of acetaminophen in 2022. The Globe and Mail reported yesterday that that Alberta has just spent another $718,000 to destroy what was left.

Nor did Smith say anything about her call less than two years ago for Alberta’s population to double to 10 million people – the better to throw our weight around in Confederation. Or the UCP’s successful advertising campaigns calling on Ontario and B.C. residents to move here. This caught the attention of her own party’s highly influential MAGA base and by the summer of 2024 she had jumped onto the anti-immigration bandwagon.

So her dream of Red Deer, a city of 100,000 souls best known as a coffee and gas stop halfway between the fleshpots of Calgary and Edmonton, hitting a population of a million any time soon will have to be put back on ice for a long spell.

“Alberta taxpayers can no longer be asked to continue to subsidize the entire country through equalization and federal transfers, permit the federal government to flood our borders with new arrivals and then give free access to our most-generous-in-the-country social programs to anyone who moves here,” Smith complained, exploiting her government’s carefully nurtured popular misunderstanding of how federal transfer payments work.

Turns out the population growth she was demanding so recently is “financially crippling and undercuts the quality of our health care, education and other social services.” You know, like public health care, which her government is striving to dismantle.

Hilariously, the premier assured listeners that despite low oil prices and the cost of all those immigrants, “the approved wage increases for our doctors, nurses and teachers will remain in place so we can continue to attract the skilled professionals needed to catch up with our growth.”

Nice to know. I wonder who informed her that, unlike the United States she so admires, even governments in this country have to abide by legal contracts and the rule of law? Can you imagine what would have happened if the UCP had tried to roll back just-negotiated wages with skilled health-care professionals? It wouldn’t have been pretty.

So here are Smith’s planned referenda questions, in her own words: Do you support the Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purpose of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and ensuring Albertans have first priority to new employment opportunities?
Do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially funded programs such as health, education and other social services?
Assuming that all citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs, as they do now, do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to be resident in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially funded social support programs?
Assuming that all citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now, do you support the Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their families use of the health care and education systems?
Do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to be eligible to vote in a provincial election to strengthen Alberta’s constitutional and fiscal position within a united Canada.

Needless to say, much of this makes little sense upon examination. It is mostly bad policy that would not save money and in some cases would violate the constitution we have now. In addition, it would be mean-spirited and often cruel. The final point is a solution in search of a problem, although one that is fiercely believed in by MAGA fantasists.

In addition, the government will seek approval to work with “other willing provinces” to amend the Canadian Constitution in four ways, Smith said. It is not completely clear if this is supposed to be one referendum question with four bullets or four referenda. Have provincial governments and not the federal government select the justices appointed to provincial Kings Bench and appeals courts?
Abolish the unelected federal Senate.
Allow provinces to opt out of federal programs intruding on provincial jurisdictions such as health, education and social services without losing any of the associated federal funding for use in their own provincial social programs.
Better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province’s laws dealing with provincial or shared constitutional areas of jurisdiction priority over federal laws when in conflict with one another.

All these ideas are likely to be immediately rejected by other provinces. Which, as previously noted, is probably the point.

The NDP Opposition, foolishly, decided to wait until this morning after the news cycle has moved on to respond. That fits with Leader Naheed Nenshi’s wish to do politics in full sentences. It doesn’t show much understanding of how political discourse is carried on in this era, though. The UCP, I am sure, was delighted.

Alberta politics


David J. Climenhaga

David Climenhaga is a journalist and trade union communicator who has worked in senior writing and editing positions with the Globe and Mail and the Calgary Herald. He left journalism after the strike... More by David J. Climenhaga

Alberta Conservatives fume as Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux jumps ship for the Liberals

by David J. Climenhaga

February 20, 2026

It’s a pity the late Alberta Premier Jim Prentice isn’t still around to observe the right way to organize a mass floor crossing.

MP Matt Jeneroux giving a presentation when he was still a Conservative. Credit: Matt Jeneroux / Facebook

As everybody in Canada surely knows by now, Alberta Member of Parliament Matt Jeneroux has crossed the floor of the House of Commons to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals, who whether you like it or not appear still to be the Natural Governing Party of Canada.

Jeneroux made the announcement in a letter published on social media in which he said after listening to Carney’s world-famous Rupture Address in Davos last month he had concluded we are living through a moment “that demands steady leadership, constructive collaboration between all Parliamentarians, and a willingness to stand up and serve even when the path is not easy.”

Accordingly, he continued, dropping his metaphorical bombshell: “After further reflection with my family, and conversations with colleagues and constituents, I will be continuing to serve in Parliament – and I will be working with Prime Minister Mark Carney as part of his new government …” Boom!

In a social media statement, Prime Minister Carney added that he was “honoured to welcome Matt Jeneroux to our caucus as the newest member of Canada’s new government. Building a stronger, more resilient, and more independent country will require ambition, collaboration, and occasionally, sacrifice.”

Naturally, the Opposition Conservatives are apoplectic. They must have thought last fall when there were rumours Jeneroux might be pondering executing a floor crossing that they had successfully bullied the former “progressive conservative” Edmonton MP into shutting up for the time being and then quitting quietly this summer.

Apparently things were bad enough at that time that Jeneroux felt compelled to issue a social media statement saying, no, no one had threatened him. He announced his plans to remain in Parliament for a spell, then quit, in the same fashion.

Pierre Poilievre, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada who blew a 27-point lead in the polls to lose last April’s federal election and his own Ontario seat, immediately said Jeneroux had “betrayed the people of Edmonton Riverbend who voted for affordable food and homes, safe streets, and a strong resource sector.”

Well, one can feel a certain sympathy with that point of view and still not feel very sympathetic with Poilievre, who has too much of a whiff of the MAGA about him for a lot of Canadian voters.

There’s no question Poilievre has been wounded again by Carney’s strategy. With Poilievre now back in the saddle as the just-re-ratified Conservative leader and back in his native Alberta as short-term MP for Battle River-Crowfoot, he appears to be a liability both for the Conservatives and the folks in his riding who are stuck with him for the indeterminate future.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Carney has found an unconventional route to building the majority he couldn’t quite win last April 28. Every time Poilievre scrambles back to his feet he gets knocked down again, just as he was in November when Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont crossed to the Libs and in December when Ontario MP Michael Ma did the same thing. There are probably more Conservative MPs waiting in the wings, and maybe some New Democrats too if the party chooses the wrong leader next month.

We haven’t seen anything quite like this out here in Tory Blue Alberta since April 20, 1977, when Cactus Jack Horner of the Conservative Horner political clan made the same trip from the Opposition benches to Pierre Trudeau’s Liberal government’s side of the House. That made 4/20 a day that lived in infamy in Alberta until PM Justin Trudeau’s government legalized cannabis in in 2018, which may account for a certain amount of forgetfulness among much of the Conservative base.

Horner went straight into the Liberal cabinet, where he remained until 1979, when he was defeated along with the elder Trudeau’s Liberal government. By 1980, the Liberals were back, but without Horner, who was punished by the voters of his Crowfoot riding – perhaps ironically essentially the same territory as that now represented by Poilievre.

So those things may or may not be a harbinger of what will happen to Jeneroux, who may or may not have plans to remain in politics after the next federal election. In the meantime, he is said to abide in Vancouver when he’s not in Ottawa.

For the time being, Carney said in his statement: “As a new special advisor on economic and security partnerships, Matt’s leadership will contribute to strengthening Canada’s alliances and trade partnerships, advancing Canada’s leadership in global security cooperation, and building our strength at home.”

It’s a pity that the late Alberta Premier Jim Prentice isn’t still around to observe this demonstration of the right way to organize a mass floor crossing.

Prentice briefly appeared to be some kind of political genius on December 17, 2014, when it was revealed he had persuaded Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith and eight of her MLAs to cross the floor of the provincial Legislature en masse to join his Progressive Conservative government.

Alas for all concerned, astonishment soon turned to outrage, Smith’s political career quickly soured for a long spell, and the ensuing brouhaha played a significant role in the election of Rachel Notley’s NDP in May 2015.

Probably the first political casualty of the mass floor crossings of 2014 was Rob Anderson, MLA for Airdrie at the time, who in 2010 had quit the PCs and crossed the floor to join the Wildrose Party and then crossed back with Smith, making him a double floor crosser. In January 2015, presumably reading the handwriting on the wall, he announced he was leaving politics.

Unfortunately for Alberta, it could be argued, like Smith, Anderson found a second life in politics with the United Conservative Party. She’s the premier and he’s her chief of staff, an intemperate social media commentator, and a co-author of the separatist Free Alberta Strategy that appears to have been fully adopted by the party.

Carney, meanwhile, is demonstrating a more effective way to use floor-crossings to keep his political opponents off balance is to make one bombshell announcement at a time.

Well, they call ’em the L-shaped party for a reason, and they sure can execute a smuggler’s turn on policy when necessary, faster than their Conservative rivals seem to be able to manage.




David J. Climenhaga

David Climenhaga is a journalist and trade union communicator who has worked in senior writing and editing positions with the Globe and Mail and the Calgary Herald. He left journalism after the strike... More by David J.

Avi Lewis answers rabble’s NDP leadership questionnaire

February 23, 2026

rabble.ca

rabble is asking each of the candidates for the NDP leadership seven questions on party strategy, Indigenous issues, dealing with Donald Trump and more. Here are the answers from Avi Lewis.

Avi Lewis at a campaign event. Credit: Avi Lewis / X

Please tell our readers three policies you would champion as NDP leader.

As NDP leader, I would champion the creation of public options in every sector of our economy where the market is failing. While one-in-four Canadians live in food-insecure households and food bank usage skyrockets, Galen Weston, the owner of Loblaws, is worth $18 billion. This is classic market failure, and shows who benefits and who suffers in our current economy, where every sector is dominated by a handful of colluding corporations. It’s why our campaign is proposing a public option for cell phones, internet, postal banking, and groceries. Think Costco run as a public service – a public network of 50 grocery stores across the country would offer 30 to 45 per cent cheaper food prices and cost $300 million a year to run. That’s just one half of one percent of the defence budget.

Second, we are running on a Green New Deal to create over a million good-paying union jobs in every corner of this country by investing two per cent of Canada’s GDP in tackling the climate emergency, creating decades of employment for trades workers, care workers, transportation workers, youth, scientists, fossil fuel workers, and more. This work will be supported by a new generation of green public corporations like neighbourhood utilities, heat pump manufacturers and installers, the care economy (care work is low carbon!) electric bus factories and more.

Thirdly, a national rent cap that will give power back to renters and put an end to steep rent hikes. The cap will mean that rent cannot be raised by more than the rate of inflation in each province or territory including for vacant units, so landlords cannot jack up rents between tenants. The federal government can do this by implementing backstop legislation that strengthens provincial and territorial rent controls.

Which Carney government legislative initiatives would you change, if you could, and in what way?

First of all, I would repeal the major projects provisions in Bill C-5. It allows the federal government to approve projects, including fossil fuel infrastructure, while bypassing consultations and environmental assessments. It’s the type of bill that would make Stephen Harper blush, ignoring Indigenous rights and flagrantly disregarding the fact that we’re in a climate emergency. We need powerlines, not pipelines – especially not if they’re rushed through over the objections of communities who are trying to protect our air, water and land.

Additionally, Bill C-12 is an assault on the fundamental rights of migrants, refugees, and all Canadian citizens. Rather than keeping us safe, this bill creates a deportation machine that drags us ever closer to the horrors happening in the US. This law opens the door to a new wave of human rights abuses, and tears at the social fabric of communities. We should scrap this law and follow the lead of Spain, who are giving legal status to half a million migrant workers.

Finally, I’m deeply concerned by provisions in Bill C-9 that restrict our constitutional right to peacefully protest. Bill C-9 is an attack on our civil liberties and charter rights. It is designed to limit freedom of expression and the ability of people to organize and speak out for justice, including and especially those organizing for justice in Palestine. I support the cross-country, multi-faith coalition of organizations – including many civil society groups and the Canadian Labour Congress, who are calling on the federal government to withdraw this dangerous legislation.

How would you combat separatism in Quebec and Alberta?

The stoking of Alberta separatism by Danielle Smith, who has cleared the way for a referendum to be held is a dangerous development. This is a cause that appears to be fuelled by American foreign interference, with Trump administration officials meeting with leading separatists. We must strongly reject these efforts, and do everything we can to help Naheed Nenshi win the next provincial election. In my meeting with Mr. Nenshi, I emphasized how I will do everything I can to make this happen, and thanked him for his and the Alberta NDP’s steady work opposing the most right-wing government in this country.

In addition to being dangerous, it’s also a distraction from Danielle Smith’s agenda of cuts and privatization. The UCP government recently passed Bill 11, a blueprint for American style two-tier health care in Alberta. It is an open invitation to US health insurance companies to come in and cannibalize our precious public health care system. We must not let this happen. That’s why the federal government needs to start strongly enforcing the Canada Health Act, to stop this sell off of medicare dead in its tracks.

Regarding Quebec separatism, the key to addressing it for the NDP is by demonstrating that we are a viable option for Quebec’s progressive majority. This includes having a leader who can not only communicate with people in Quebec in French, but also a leader who understands Quebec’s unique culture and politics. It means upholding the Sherbrooke Declaration and connecting with Quebeckers on the basis of shared social democratic values and ideas. I’m proud to have the support of Charles Taylor, who kept the flame alive for the NDP in Quebec decades before the Orange Wave. The task of reconnecting with Quebec would be fundamental if I have the honour of serving as leader.

What would your conditions be for supporting a Liberal minority government?

If the NDP holds a clear balance of power under my leadership I would like to go in with just one demand: proportional representation. Not a commitment to studying it further, doing it later, holding a referendum or some other way for the Liberals to wriggle out of the commitment – but its full implementation after a citizens’ assembly to decide the exact type of electoral system. It is the reform that unleashes all of the other reforms, and it will end once and for all the phenomenon of “strategic voting” where people feel pressure to vote against something, rather than voting for whichever party or candidate truly aligns with their values.

It is also vital to preventing false majorities where a party that wins 36 per cent of the vote wields almost absolute power. What happens if Poilievre wins the next election in such a scenario? All of the progress made by the NDP in the last parliament, from dental care to the first steps on pharmacare, will be put at risk. This is why electoral reform is so important. Rather than a menu of demands, the NDP should have one clear condition next time and it should be proportional representation.

If you were in charge of Canada-U.S. relations, what would your strategy be for dealing with the Trump administration?

We need an independent foreign policy that pursues alliances with a host of like-minded countries. There is strength in numbers, and we should prioritize deepening ties with progressive governments including Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Spain, to stand up to Trump collectively. All of these countries have not hesitated to chart their own course on the world stage, including by condemning the genocide in Palestine and standing up against the bullying of smaller nations in the Western Hemisphere by the Trump administration. The Carney government has been silent on these matters, and the NDP must be a principled voice for human rights and justice without exceptions. In addition, we should not be pursuing deeper military integration with the United States, like the “Golden Dome” missile defence system, which Prime Minister Carney continues to entertain.

As well as an independent foreign policy, we must also build an independent and resilient domestic economy that can withstand the shocks of Trump’s tariffs. Our economy has become far too intertwined and reliant on our neighbour to the south. That’s why we’re running on a plan to expand public ownership, creating new Canadian crown corporations to deliver affordable services from groceries to telecoms to postal banking. And finally, we need to push back against the tariffs with a tax on oil and gas exports to the US, which will also help fund the creation of sustainable jobs and finance the transition to clean energy that we desperately need. 

What steps would you take to decrease growing economic inequality in Canada?

Our campaign is putting forward a comprehensive tax plan for the 99 per cent to tackle inequality and raise the money that we need to properly fund our public services. Inequality in this country has reached unfathomable levels. The top one per cent own almost a quarter of Canada’s net wealth. Meanwhile, the six biggest banks raked in $70 billion in profits last year. Fountains of wealth are being generated, but it’s not trickling down to working people, it’s stuck at the top. We need a government with the courage and political will to finally go after it.

That’s exactly what our plan proposes. The centrepiece of it is a wealth tax of one per cent on the top one per cent, rising to three per cent on the largest fortunes. Such a tax would impact only a small number of people, but it could generate $40 billion a year in new revenue. In addition, we’re calling for capital gains income to be treated the same as employment income, a tax on inheritance of wealth over $5 million, a new income tax bracket for the richest Canadians, a tax on excess corporate profits, and giving the CRA the resources it needs to go after tax cheats.

On the income support side, we would lift people out of poverty with a major increase to income support for disabilities (raising the Canada Disability Benefit to $2150 per month), seniors, families with children and low income adults. We would also create a national framework for a guaranteed liveable basic income, as proposed by Leah Gazan in Bill C-223, to establish a social floor below which no one can fall.

What measures are necessary to empower Indigenous communities in Canada and assure their prosperity?

Empowering and supporting Indigenous communities is threaded throughout our campaign platform on many levels – from our vision of an electric bus revolution that re-connects communities and addresses safety on every Highway of Tears in this land to investing in the care economy, including culturally-appropriate childcare and elder care, to ensuring that impacted Indigenous communities benefit from the wealth generated by mining on traditional territories.

When it comes to development on Indigenous lands, the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples principle of Free, Prior, and Informed Consent must be fully respected and honoured. This requires true, meaningful consultation in partnership and collaboration with First Nations, Métis, and Inuit governments, including with traditional governance systems and structures. Meaningful consultation includes ensuring that all community voices who wish to participate are included in the formal process for projects, but additionally that communities are able to have continued dialogue with the federal government should new issues arise during project development and operations.

Another absolutely crucial element is adopting a “For Indigenous, By Indigenous” Housing Strategy. The housing crisis affecting First Nations, Inuit and Métis communities is a national emergency. Nearly one in six Indigenous people live in homes needing major repairs that are considered unsuitable for the number of people living there. This is a denial of fundamental human rights, and it has dire consequences for people’s health and wellbeing. The strategy would close the housing gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities, through massive investments in urban, rural and Northern Indigenous housing projects, working alongside Indigenous leadership.

Finally, I would like to acknowledge Tanille Johnston’s plan for Indigenous reconciliation and empowerment, it’s an outstanding document that I fully support.

MONOPOLY CAPITALI$M

Canada’s Oil Patch Swept Up in Record $38B Consolidation Wave

By Alex Kimani - Feb 24, 2026,

• U.S. upstream M&A is slowing sharply, falling from $192 billion in 2023 to $65 billion in 2025.
• 
  
• Canada is seeing the opposite trend, with $37.8 billion in 2025 deals consolidating oil sands control among a handful of major players.
• 
  
• M&A action was driven by cost-cutting, operational synergies, pipeline constraints, and investor pressure for efficiency.
• 
  

Previously, we reported that the U.S. Shale Patch has witnessed a big slump in corporate buyouts in recent years as premium acreage depletes and volatile energy prices keep buyers on the sidelines. Following a record $192 billion in mergers and acquisitions announced in 2023 and $105 billion in 2024, U.S. upstream oil and gas M&A activity totaled just $65 billion in 2025, despite a late-year rebound with $23.5 billion in deals announced in the fourth quarter.

However, the situation could not be more stark in America’s neighbor to the north.

Canada's oil and gas sector is currently experiencing a massive, multi-year wave of consolidation, with 2025 seeing over $37.8 billion in deals executed or pending, marking the highest activity level since 2017. This trend is consolidating control into the hands of a few dominant players including Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (NYSE:CNQ), Cenovus Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVE), Suncor Energy Inc.(NYSE:SU), and Imperial Oil Ltd.(NYSE:IMO) and even Texas-based ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)--who together account for roughly 85% of Alberta's oil sands production. Some high-profile tie-ups in the space include Whitecap Resources Inc.'s (OTCPK:WCPRF) CA$15-billion merger with Veren Inc.; Cenovus Energy’s merger with MEG Energy for ~CA$8.6 billion as well as Ovintiv Inc.'s (NYSE:OVV) CA$3.8-billion acquisition of NuVista Energy Ltd.

Related: U.S. Crude Stockpile Surge Weighs on Oil Prices

With oil prices remaining lacklustre over the past two years, energy companies are increasingly seeking to cut costs by scaling up, improving operational efficiency and slashing overheads, rather than through organic growth. Meanwhile, investors are demanding better returns through dividends and buybacks, forcing companies to focus on profitability rather than production growth. Further, rising crude oil production from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) has led to increased pipeline congestion and renewed rationing on the Enbridge Mainline system. This has depressed prices for heavy Canadian crude despite the completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, discouraging new and expensive long-term projects.

“M&A is a way that you can grow when you don't want to invest in drilling, when you're not going to get the kind of returns you're expecting,” Grant Zawalsky, vice-chair at Calgary law firm Burnet, Duckworth and Palmer LLP, told Radio Canada. “Until the fundamentals change, we'll likely see more of the same.”

However, while consolidation will likely persist in the current year, analysts anticipate a modest slowdown in deal momentum, in large part due to a growing scarcity of high-quality targets, “I don't know if we'll see the values that we saw in 2025, which were dominated by a number of large deals over in the billions,” Tom Pavic, president of Sayer Energy Advisors, told Radio Canada. “I think you'll still see quite a bit of activity, just at a smaller scale,” he added.

Experts have predicted that the "field synergy" model, whereby merging companies combine operations that are geographically close to each other, will remain a popular M&A strategy. Tie-ups in the Canadian OilPatch are increasingly focusing on asset consolidation and improving efficiency by combining adjacent or complementary assets to improve operational scale, such as merging Montney producers to maximize infrastructure usage rather than just drilling new wells. These deals include optimizing field logistics, sharing procurement contracts and reducing overhead, such as Cenovus Energy’s estimated $400M/year in projected synergies after merging with MEG Energy, largely driven by field efficiencies and G&A cuts.

Consolidation often leads to lower job-per-barrel ratios through automation and leaner head offices, allowing for increased production with fewer, more specialized staff. Further, companies are utilizing predictive geophysics and "subsurface digital twins" to simulate and optimize field operations before drilling.

Interestingly, mergers in Canada’s energy sector are increasingly focused on improving the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) profile, with over 70% of recent deals involving the target having a higher ESG score than the buyer.

Unlike in the U.S., ESG criteria remain critically important in Canada's energy sector, acting as a core framework for risk management, investment attraction, and social license to operate. While there is a shift away from glossy marketing towards more data-driven reporting, the pressure to maintain high ESG standards--particularly regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, indigenous partnerships, and corporate governance--is increasing, rather than decreasing. That’s probably not surprising considering that the federal government of Canada is led by the centre-left Liberal Party of Canada, which has been in power since 2015 and secured a fourth consecutive term in April 2025.

In contrast, many U.S. energy companies are scaling back, altering, or outright hiding their ESG commitments, a trend driven by political pressure coupled with investor backlash against underperforming sustainable funds.

The re-election of Donald Trump has accelerated the anti-ESG movement, with efforts to roll back Biden-era climate policies, clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and regulations favoring ESG investing. Consequently, many U.S. Big Oil companies are ditching their previously ambitious clean energy roadmaps and have abandoned earlier plans to cut oil output.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com