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Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Study confirms Canada's last epishelf lake is gone for good



Loss of the millennia-old ecosystem shows that even the Arctic's projected last ice refuge is vulnerable to rapid change



University of British Columbia

Bernard Laval and Jérémie Bonneau 

image: 

Dr. Bernard Laval (right) and Dr. Jérémie Bonneau

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Credit: Jérémie Bonneau





Canada’s last epishelf lake drained into the Arctic Ocean following the 2020 breakup of the Milne Ice Shelf and will not recover, a new study confirms.

Epishelf lakes form when an ice shelf acts as a dam, trapping a layer of freshwater floating above seawater connected to the ocean. The Milne Fiord epishelf lake, located on northern Ellesmere Island in Nunavut, supported freshwater microorganisms near the surface and marine species below.

In July 2020, the Milne Ice Shelf broke apart, losing 45 per cent of its area and removing the barrier that held the freshwater in place.

Drawing on a decade of ocean measurements, satellite imagery, and field observations collected before and after the breakup, researchers from UBC, University of Alberta, Université Laval and Carleton University reconstructed the lake’s disappearance.

Their findings show that the freshwater layer began escaping immediately after the collapse and had mostly vanished by autumn 2020.

"The ice shelf and lake had been thinning for decades, but the 2020 breakup was the last straw. The lake drained within months," said study author Dr. Jérémie Bonneau, a professor of civil and water engineering at Université Laval who conducted part of the research during his PhD at UBC.

The first field measurements collected after the breakup showed that by July 2022, brackish water had fully replaced the lake's distinct freshwater layer. Annual monitoring since then has found no sign of recovery.

"Epishelf lakes can signal when an ice shelf is under stress, and that's what we saw here," said co-author Dr. Bernard Laval, a professor of civil engineering at UBC who leads its environmental fluid mechanics research group. "The data showed the ice shelf was failing. Once the ice is gone, the ecosystem goes with it. There's no coming back."

“Epishelf lakes are remarkable because a freshwater ecosystem sits directly above a marine one, separated only by a thin boundary between fresh water and salt water,” said co-author Dr. Andrew Hamilton, a research scientist at the University of Alberta who completed his PhD research at Milne Fiord. “When the ice shelf broke apart, that unique ecological structure disappeared.”

Dr. Derek Mueller, a professor of geography and environmental studies at Carleton University, established the research program that tracked the ice shelf and lake through years of accelerating change.

"There are much easier places to conduct research, but understanding change in the High Arctic requires returning year after year," said Dr. Mueller. "When we began this work, we knew the ice shelf and epishelf lake were vulnerable and designed this project to monitor the transition of the fiord from one with an epishelf lake and an ice shelf to one that is seasonally ice-free.  We anticipate further profound changes in the coming years."

The research team included co-authors Silas Pijamini and Joseph Shoapik from Ausuittuq (Grise Fiord), who have participated in fieldwork since 2022.

A decade of data captures the loss

Published in Scientific Reports, the study provides the first complete reconstruction of the lake's drainage and its transformation from a freshwater ecosystem into a marine environment.

Researchers analyzed data from instruments anchored in Milne Fiord, along with annual water profiles, satellite imagery and field observations. Instruments left in place during the COVID-cancelled 2020 field season recorded the lake’s rapid salinization, though researchers could not retrieve the data until two years later.

The study found that freshwater entering Milne Fiord is now flushed directly into the ocean because the remaining ice shelf can no longer contain it. Re-establishing the lake would require the ice shelf to recover, which is not possible under the current climate trajectory.

Loss reaches the Last Ice Area

The Milne Ice Shelf lies within the Last Ice Area, a region expected to retain perennial sea ice longer than anywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere. It is also within the Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area, whose name means "the place where the ice never melts" in Inuktitut.

The loss of the lake shows that even this potential refuge for ice-dependent ecosystems is undergoing rapid change.

"These systems took thousands of years to form and were lost in months," said Dr. Bonneau. "On any human timescale, they are not coming back."

Interview languages: English (Bonneau, Hamilton, Laval, Mueller), French (Bonneau, Laval)

 

Photo gallery of the research available for media use, with credits: https://wirl.carleton.ca/photo-gallery/

For more information on the loss of Arctic ice shelves in Summer 2020, visit https://wirl.carleton.ca/research/ice/ice-shelves/calving-2020/

 

SIDEBAR:

Science at the edge of the ice

Reaching Milne Fiord takes the better part of a week in a good year.

From Vancouver or Quebec City, researchers take multiple flights — to Ottawa, Iqaluit and then Resolute Bay via Arctic Bay. In Resolute, the team spends several days at the federal Polar Continental Shelf Program base, preparing equipment and weighing every load.

“The Twin Otter can carry only about 1,000 kilos,” said Dr. Jérémie Bonneau. “Everything has to be weighed and balanced before we go.”

From Resolute, the team flies to Eureka to refuel before continuing to Purple Valley near Milne Fiord.

“I’ve been delayed for 12 days because of poor weather,” said Dr. Bonneau. “You need to plan for about a month. The actual work, when conditions allow, may be only five or six days.”

Fieldwork takes place in July, when snowmelt allows aircraft with wheels to land. Researchers can travel about 10 kilometres from camp on foot, while helicopters connect them with instruments across the wider study area. Low cloud and poor visibility, however, can prevent flying about half the time.

The research program has brought scientists back to Milne Fiord for nearly two decades, building the long-term record that allowed the team to reconstruct the lake’s disappearance.

The team collects measurements using sensor tubes about the size of a thermos. The instruments record temperature, depth and conductivity, which researchers use to determine the water’s salt content.

The researchers also maintain a long-term mooring: a set of instruments anchored to the seafloor and held upright by buoys, recording conditions throughout the Arctic winter. Each summer, the team hauls the equipment up through the ice, downloads the data, replaces its batteries and redeploys it.

Those instruments remained in place during the COVID-cancelled 2020 field season and recorded the lake’s drainage, which no researchers were there to witness.

“We saw the breakup in satellite images, and two years later we got the data,” said Dr. Laval. “The instruments were there, observing. We just couldn’t reach them.”


Bernard Laval retrieving a mooring in a Milne Ice Shelf pond. 

Credit

Photo Credit: Bella 


Silas Pijamini checking the ice before taking measurements of the water beneath it.

Credit

Photo Credit: Bella Mouchet

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Premiers at odds over leveraging potash in Canada's trade war with U.S.



Published:

Premier of Saskatchewan Scott Moe, left, and Premier of Ontario Doug Ford shake hands during a media event to sign a Memorandum of Understanding in Saskatoon on Sunday, June 1, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards

OTTAWA — Premiers are sharply divided over whether to use Canada’s natural resources as leverage in the trade war with the U.S., and potash has emerged as a key point of contention.

Canada is a major global supplier of potash, a key ingredient in fertilizers that are vital for the agricultural sector. The U.S. imports about 85 per cent of its potash from Canada.

While Ontario’s Doug Ford is pushing to pull the most damaging levers with the U.S., Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe and Alberta’s Danielle Smith are warning about a harmful long-term backlash.

Federal politicians are also weighing in. NDP leader Avi Lewis called for an export tax on “oil, gas, thermal coal, potash and other minerals to hit Trump where it hurts.”

Federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May agrees.

“If you’re dealing with a really large bully who’s beating you up, you really need to get out your keys, put them between your fingers, and go for soft, fleshy parts that are gonna hurt,” she told The Canadian Press.

“And that for us would be withholding potash.”

At a news conference Wednesday, Ford said cutting the U.S. off from potash would kill the American agricultural sector “overnight.”

But Moe, whose province supplies the U.S. with more than 86 per cent of the potash coming in from Canada, has said that such a move would backfire and harm Canadians.

“That would be a tremendous economic hit to our province and to our nation,” Moe said at a news conference this week, warning of job losses and price hikes.

He said Saskatchewan would not support any kind of export taxes or withholding supply, but did open the door to leveraging access to additional production in trade negotiations.

“The United States of America, most assuredly, would switch to buying potash from other nations around the world. We would lose a long-term customer to some degree.”

And while the drastically differing viewpoints of Ford and Moe may suggest cracks in the “Team Canada” approach that premiers and the prime minister have championed over the past year, one expert says it’s a matter of perspective.

“Ontario and B.C., are the provinces that are going to be hit the most by the tariffs that Trump is rolling out,” said Jim Farney, the director and Stauffer Dunning chair at the School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University.

Pieces of potash at a surplus pile at the Mosaic potash mine in Esterhazy, Sask. on Wednesday, May 3, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards

He said he has seen some analysis suggesting Alberta and Saskatchewan will be “hardly touched” by the U.S. tariffs.

Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior fellow and director of natural resources, energy and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, also said the tariff impact is “much more pungent” in places like Ontario with the auto and steel sectors being hit.

“Out west, we don’t talk about CUSMA, we don’t talk about the tariffs. They’re a very small part of our lives and our economy, and we’re not getting damaged and it’s not really affecting us,” Exner-Pirot, who’s also an adviser with the Business Council of Canada, told The Canadian Press.

“It is having such a different impact out West, and we don’t want it to have the same impact.”

Taking questions from reporters Wednesday, Moe said one way to leverage natural resources in trade negotiations is to barter with “access to additional production” of potash, uranium and oil.

But Exner-Pirot said such a move with potash might not make much of an impact.

“In the United States, it’s not the growing market for potash. It’s pretty saturated. They use as much as they can use, and they’re efficient at it,” she said.

The exterior of PotashCorp's (now Nutrien's) Rocanville potash plant is seen here on Wednesday Nov. 3, 2010 near Rocanville, Sask. Rocanville is approx. 250 kilometre's east of Regina. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Troy Fleece)

She also said potash companies like Nutrien started stockpiling supply in the United States to get ahead of any potential tariffs or export taxes.

“So when we say, ‘well, we’ll put an export tax on it,’ well, that won’t apply to what’s already there,” she said.

Trump administration officials have repeatedly pointed out how the U.S. has not tariffed Canadian oil, energy, uranium and potash. White House officials have indicated there’s no intention at this point to change course.

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Nick Murray, The Canadian Press

With files from Sarah Ritchie, and Kelly Geraldine Malone in Washington

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 27, 2026.

Using energy exports to punish U.S. would be unwise, Trans Mountain chief says



Updated:


Crude oil tankers SFL Sabine, front left, and Tarbet Spirit are seen docked at the Trans Mountain Westridge Marine Terminal, where crude oil from the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline is loaded onto tankers, near a residential area in Burnaby, B.C., Monday, June 10, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

CALGARY — Disrupting southbound oil exports in retaliation for U.S. tariffs is not viable and would have serious consequences for Canada, said the chief executive of Trans Mountain Corp.

“Interdependencies between both countries are high,” Mark Maki said in an interview Friday following the release of the Crown corporation’s second-quarter results, which saw its pipeline to the Vancouver area running 94 per cent full.

“I hope people put down the shovels here pretty quick. We’re hitting each other and we’ve got to stop that.”

There have been calls to keep the option open of using Canada’s natural resources as leverage in the latest trade flare-up. U.S. tariffs of 50 per cent on an array of Canadian goods worth $28 billion are in effect after Canada walked away from talks last week. Canada has since announced plans to hit back with countertarrifs and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further levies.

So far, energy has not been part of the equation.

Maki said it’s his view that taking that path would be a version of “mutually assured destruction” — a Cold War-era concept whereby a nuclear strike by one of the world’s two superpowers against the other would trigger retaliation so devastating that both sides would end up annihilated.

“It’s highly destructive to both parties,” he said.

The 890,000-barrel-per-day pipeline Trans Mountain operates provides the only meaningful avenue for Canadian crude to reach non-U.S. markets, and projects are in the works to expand that in the coming years. Almost two-thirds of the oil that moves through the line goes to Asia via tanker, with some also serving the B.C. Lower Mainland and the U.S. Pacific Northwest.

Washington State refineries get about a third of their supply from Canada, Maki said. During the second quarter, an average of 234,000 barrels per day were delivered to that market on Trans Mountain’s system.

Even with the expanded international access, the links between Canada and the U.S. remain significant, especially to refineries in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. The Canadian Energy Regulator says that in 2025, Canada exported 4.3 million barrels per day of crude oil, and 90 per cent of that went to the United States.

If this country were to tighten the taps to the U.S., “where’s Canada going to put the barrels?” Maki asked.

Kent Fellows, an economics professor at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said while energy restrictions shouldn’t be totally off the table, it should be “very close to a last resort.”

“It’s a really, really big stick and it has very dangerous implications on both sides of the border.”

But not all retaliatory strategies are created equal, Fellows said. Export restrictions on southbound pipelines or export taxes would have a similar effect — raising costs to the U.S. while also hurting producers’ bottom lines and Alberta’s royalty revenues.

A third approach known as curtailment — the province setting temporary limits on production levels — would boost prices, potentially benefiting producers and government coffers while still raising costs in the U.S. It was a step Alberta took in 2019 in response to a collapse in western Canadian oil prices amid severe pipeline bottlenecks.

“It’s still a dangerous game because it is hurting the U.S. and you might get a more than proportional response from them,” Fellows said.

Earlier Friday, Trans Mountain said during the three months ended June 30, its pipeline carried an average of 840,000 barrels of oil per day, up from 703,000 during the same period a year earlier. It has been running even fuller since then, hitting or even exceeding its official capacity of 890,000 barrels a day.

The pipeline has been operating since 1953, and an expansion tripling its throughput came into service in 2024. Another 90,000 barrels per day is set to be added later this year by introducing chemical agents to help crude better flow through the line. By the end of 2028, Trans Mountain aims to boost it by another 210,000 barrels per day through new pipe segments, additional pumping power and other upgrades.

Trans Mountain has also been enlisted to develop, build and operate a new West Coast oil pipeline to southern B.C., proposed by the Alberta government, that would largely follow the path of its existing line. The province expects Ottawa to deem it a project of national importance this fall, clearing the way for a speedy review. Its cost has been estimated at $35 billion to $44 billion.

Trans Mountain’s net income for the quarter was $138 million, down from $150 million during the same quarter last year. The drop was mainly from an increased depreciation and amortization expense, the corporation said. Revenues rose to $808 million from $719 million.

Trans Mountain said it paid $450 million to its owner, the federal government, during the second quarter in the form of interest and dividends.

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Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 28, 2026.