Berlin’s Wake-Up Call: When ‘America First’ Means Europe Last

Hosein Pabarja

December 22, 2025

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Image by Getty and Unsplash+.

The era of polite transatlantic nodding is over. Chancellor Merz is signaling that if the U.S. wants to go it alone, Germany will stop waiting by the phone.

Germany’s frustration with the United States is no longer confined to closed‑door briefings or diplomatic understatement. It is now spilling into public view — and striking at the core assumptions of the transatlantic alliance.

The trigger was Washington’s newly released U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS), a document that reads less like a partnership agreement and more like an indictment. It criticizes Europe for democratic backsliding, uncontrolled migration and over‑reliance on American military protection, while demanding that Europeans carry a far greater share of the defense burden. In Berlin, the document landed not as strategy, but as provocation.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made that clear in remarks that went well beyond routine alliance fatigue. Parts of the NSS, he said, were simply “unacceptable to us from a European perspective.” He rejected the notion that the United States should act as Europe’s democratic overseer, adding: “I see no need for the Americans to now want to save democracy in Europe. If it would need to be saved, we would manage on our own.”

Behind the rhetoric is a deeper reckoning: Germany is starting to question how much strategic dependence on the United States it can afford — economically, financially and militarily.

The Burden-Shift: From Ally to Liability

For decades, Germany accepted asymmetric relations with Washington as the price of security. U.S. power underwrote Europe’s defense, global trade routes and financial architecture. In return, Germany kept military spending low and focused on export‑led growth.

That bargain now looks increasingly one‑sided.

The NSS explicitly frames Europe as a liability: insufficiently armed, politically fragile, and unwilling to pay for its own defense. German officials privately describe the shift as moving from “burden‑sharing” to “burden‑shifting” — transferring responsibility without ceding control.

Merz articulated this concern bluntly, warning against an alliance that drifts toward unilateralism: “‘America first’ is fine, but ‘America alone’ cannot be in your interest. You need partners in the world, and one of those partners can be Europe. And if you cannot make use of Europe, then at least make Germany your partner.”

King Dollar’s Stranglehold

Germany’s vulnerability does not begin with tanks or troops. It starts with currency.

The U.S. dollar remains the backbone of the global financial system. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) COFER data, the dollar accounted for roughly 56–58 percent of global foreign‑exchange reserves in late 2024, compared with about 20 percent for the euro. While the dollar’s share has gradually declined, its political utility has not.

Access to dollar clearing — and the threat of losing it — gives Washington leverage that no ally can easily resist. German economists increasingly describe this system as a form of structural pressure: sanctions applied extraterritorially, enforced through U.S. jurisdictional reach rather than multilateral agreement.

For Berlin, this is not theory. It is lived experience.

The Sanctions Straightjacket

Germany’s export‑driven economy is deeply exposed to U.S. markets. In 2024, German exports to the United States totaled roughly $170 billion, making the U.S. Germany’s single most important export destination — accounting for nearly 10 percent of total German exports.

That dependency sharply limits Berlin’s room for maneuver when U.S. policy collides with German economic interests.

The most cited example remains Iran. After Washington’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, German firms — including Volkswagen, Siemens, and BASF — rapidly exited the Iranian market to avoid U.S. secondary sanctions. German‑Iranian trade collapsed from €3.4 billion in 2017 to roughly €1.5 billion by 2024.

European counter‑measures failed. The EU’s “blocking statute” offered legal cover, but not financial protection. Companies chose access to U.S. markets over European political symbolism — a decision Berlin officials quietly acknowledge was unavoidable.

The Billion-Dollar Handcuffs

The financial sector tells a similar story. Deutsche Bank alone has paid more than $20 billion in fines and settlements since 2008, largely to U.S. authorities.

These include a massive $7.2 billion settlement in 2017 over mortgage-backed securities, as well as a $186 million Federal Reserve fine in July 2023 related to sanctions violations and anti–money-laundering failures. German officials rarely dispute the technical merits of individual cases. What unsettles them is the asymmetry: U.S. regulators policing European institutions extraterritorially, often with limited reciprocal oversight from Frankfurt or Brussels.

The €100 Billion Paradox

If Germany hoped that throwing money at the military would ease tensions with Washington, the data suggest otherwise.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Germany spent approximately $88.5 billion on defense in 2024, solidifying its position as one of the world’s top military spenders. Defense outlays reached 1.9 percent of GDP, effectively meeting NATO’s 2‑percent benchmark for the first time — largely financed through the €100 billion special fund (Sondervermögen) adopted after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Germany also remains the second‑largest financial military aid donor to Ukraine, trailing only the United States.

Yet even this dramatic increase has not insulated Berlin from U.S. criticism. SIPRI data and German budget analyses warn that without further structural budget hikes, Germany’s current spending levels are not fiscally sustainable beyond 2026 once the special fund is exhausted. The political message from Washington remains unchanged: spend more, do more, rely less — but follow American strategic priorities.

Plan B: A Post-American Defense?

The contradiction sits at the heart of Germany’s dilemma. Washington urges Europe to become stronger, yet resists any European military or industrial autonomy that might dilute U.S. influence. Since Brexit, Germany has emerged as the EU’s central power. From Nord Stream 2 to China policy to defense procurement, U.S. pressure has repeatedly constrained Berlin’s choices. Many German officials now see this not as temporary friction, but as structural tension — intensified by America’s growing rivalry with China and declining tolerance for independent allies.

The result is not estrangement, but recalibration.

Germany is not preparing to leave the alliance. But it is preparing for a world in which American guarantees are conditional, transactional and increasingly political. In that world, dependency is no longer just a risk — it is a liability.

Hosein Pabarja, a graduate in European Studies from the University of Tehran.

WSJ Bombshell: Trump Chiefs Met With Putin Honcho On Peace Plan To Access Billions Frozen In Europe

Tommy Christopher
Sat, November 29, 2025 

Mediaite

Trump Chiefs Met With Putin Honcho On Peace Plan To Access Billions Frozen In EU

President Donald Trump’s top envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Putin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev to hammer out a peace deal that would unlock hundreds of billions in funds frozen in Europe, according to a bombshell Wall Street Journal report.

Recently, Trump took flak over a 28-point peace plan that was rejected by many Republicans and others as a “Russian wish list.”

The president lashed out after the leaked plan was widely criticized, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s did confirm that “The peace proposal was authored by the U.S. It is offered as a strong framework for ongoing negotiations. It is based on input from the Russian side. But it is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine.”

In remarks to reporters, Trump later distanced himself from the plan, saying “Well, that was just a map, all that was is a map. That was not a plan, it was a concept.”

But according to the Wall Street Journal’s five-member reporting team — Drew Hinshaw, Benoit Faucon, Rebecca Ballhaus, Thomas Grove, and Joe Parkinson — another plan was being worked out in Miami by Trump’s business cronies/officials:


At his waterfront estate, billionaire developer-turned-special envoy Steve Witkoff was hosting Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund and Vladimir Putin’s handpicked negotiator, who had largely shaped the document they were revising on the screen. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, had arrived from his nearby home on an island known as the “Billionaire Bunker.”

Dmitriev was pushing a plan for U.S. companies to tap the roughly $300 billion of Russian central bank assets, frozen in Europe, for U.S.-Russian investment projects and a U.S.-led reconstruction of Ukraine. U.S. and Russian companies could join to exploit the vast mineral wealth in the Arctic. There were no limits to what two longtime adversaries could achieve, Dmitriev had argued for months: Their rival space industries, which raced one another during the Cold War, could even pursue a joint mission to Mars with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

For the Kremlin, the Miami talks were the culmination of a strategy, hatched before Trump’s inauguration, to bypass the traditional U.S. national security apparatus and convince the administration to view Russia not as a military threat but as a land of bountiful opportunity, according to Western security officials. By dangling multibillion-dollar rare-earth and energy deals, Moscow could reshape the economic map of Europe—while driving a wedge between America and its traditional allies.

The report goes into great depth about the secret meetings and machinations that would result in windfalls for U.S. businesses in Russia and Ukraine. 

Read the full report here.

Trump’s $2 Trillion Plan to Cash in on Ukraine ‘Peace’; Leaks

Adam Downer
Sat, November 29, 2025 
DAILY BEAST

John McDonnell / Stringer, Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

At the center of President Trump’s contentious plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war isn’t peace: it’s profit.

Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are negotiating with Russian officials to ensure U.S. businesses—and Trump’s friends—are in position to make a killing once the war ends, according to an exhaustive Wall Street Journal report published Friday.

“Russia has so many vast resources, vast expanses of land,” Witkoff, who last week was busted coaching Russians on how to best suck up to the president, told The Wall Street Journal.

Steve Witkoff (left) has been a central figure in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and has been busted pushing Russian interests in the negotiations. / Gavriil Grigorov / via REUTERS

Witkoff spoke to the paper about a future where Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine are all business partners.

“If we do all that, and everybody’s prospering and they’re all a part of it, and there’s upside for everybody, that’s going to naturally be a bulwark against future conflicts there. Because everybody’s thriving,” Witkoff said.

For Witkoff, Kushner, and the Russians, the goal is reportedly to revitalize Russia’s $2 trillion economy through joint Russia-U.S. ventures. At the center of the talks is $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets that Russia wants to give to U.S. businesses for investment projects and U.S.-led reconstruction of Ukraine.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, has been dangling lucrative Russia-U.S. ventures, such as exploiting Arctic mineral resources and teaming up with SpaceX on a joint mission to Mars.

Kirill Dmitriev has been proposing lucrative joint U.S.-Russia business ventures so that the U.S. will get kickback once the war ends. / Getty

Money from such projects would flow to Trump’s friends and megadonors. Gentry Beach, founder of investment firm America First Global , a college friend of Donald Trump Jr. and Donald Trump campaign donor, is in talks to acquire a stake in a Russian Arctic gas project if it is released from sanctions, according to The Journal.

Trump megadonor Stephen P. Lynch has been working with Trump Jr. to purchase the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which provides vital gas to Europe from Russia.

By coordinating with the U.S. on profitable business ventures, Russia believes it could become an economic powerhouse in Europe while driving a wedge between the United States and its traditional European allies.

Europe balked at President Trump’s 28-point peace plan—which Witkoff drafted based on a Russian plan— arguing it was overly generous to Russia. The deal had Ukraine concede territory and cut its military capacity, effectively neutering the nation’s sovereignty. The plan wasn’t popular in America either, as it received significant pushback from the GOP.

Europe responded with its own peace plan that amended Trump’s. The new plan makes territorial concessions a point of post-ceasefire talks and raises the cap on Ukraine’s military so the country can still defend itself effectively. Negotiations are ongoing.

The White House did not immediately respond to the Daily Beast’s request for comment.

Spokesperson Anna Kelly told the Wall Street Journal, “The Trump administration has gathered input from both the Ukrainians and Russians to formulate a peace deal that can stop the killing and bring this war to a close. As the President said, his national security team has made great progress over the past week, and the agreement will continue to be fine-tuned following conversations with officials from both sides.”

Trump's peace plan has been criticized for being overly friendly to the Russians.

 / Contributor / Getty Images

Though the Journal’s report details the many ways in which Americans and Russians could profit from an eventual peace deal, it’s unclear how Ukraine would benefit.

Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, former Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, said he was leaving the government after he was “frozen” out of peace talks. In October, President Trump refused Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk missiles that they felt could help Ukraine negotiate with Russia more effectively.

Witkoff suggested Ukraine instead ask Trump for a ten-year tariff exemption to “supercharge” its economy.

NORDSTREAM BOMBING

Opinion - A German court may have just shattered one of the Biden era’s biggest lies

Jonathan Turley,

FOX NEWS  opinion contributor

Sat, November 29, 2025






It is often said that “the first casualty when war comes is truth.” A criminal warrant just issued in Germany shows that war continues to claim its victims. However, this warrant could prove to be as great an indictment not just of the government of Volodymyr Zelensky, but also of former President Joe Biden.

This week, a German court issued an arrest warrant for Ukrainian Serhii Kuznietsov, which may finally confirm what was long suspected: that Ukraine was responsible for the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in the waters near Denmark and Sweden.

The Biden administration may have been given prior warning. It was allegedly told years ago by a Ukrainian whistleblower that a six-person team of Ukrainian special forces was planning to rent a boat, dive to the sea floor and blow up the Nord Stream project. The operation was reportedly led by Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces.

Nevertheless, after the attack, the Biden administration and many in the media fueled speculation that Russia had destroyed its own pipeline, despite evidence and logic to the contrary. It was another convenient claim of a Russian false-flag operation that allowed the Biden administration to ignore the possibility that Ukraine had not only engaged in environmental crimes but had also knowingly lied to its allies.

For years, some of us have questioned the official account from the Biden administration about the available evidence of those responsible.

The suggestion of a Russian attack on a Russian pipeline never seemed logical. However, the administration was funneling billions in support for Ukraine, funding that has now exceeds an estimated $180 billion. Having Ukraine sabotage pipelines to our allies would hardly be opportune when many were questioning the costs to U.S. citizens.

The Biden administration was not alone in running interference for Ukraine, as Zelensky denied responsibility despite mounting evidence to the contrary. When another alleged Ukrainian saboteur was found in Poland, a Polish court blocked the extradition to Germany and ordered his release. The reason? The judge did base the decision on Ukrainian denials. Instead, he declared that the act had been committed in the name of a just war. (Poland remains the frontline against Russian aggression in Europe).

An Italian court did not engage in such rationalization. It ordered the extradition of Kuznietsov, believed to be a key figure in the conspiracy. The attack involved leasing a yacht in the German port of Rostock, using forged IDs and a screen of intermediaries. Kuznietsov insists that he was an army captain serving in Ukraine at the time.

If the investigators are correct, it was not just the Ukrainian government that was lying to us. Biden was also presumably informed by the intelligence agencies of this evidence. Yet Biden kept suggesting anyway that the Russians were covering up the truth. He told the public, “The Russians are pumping out disinformation and lies. We will work with our allies to get to the bottom [of) precisely what happened] Just don’t listen to what Putin’s saying. What he’s saying we know is not true.”

Ironically, even if we were told about this evidence, the public might still have supported the commitment to Ukraine. After all, Ukraine is the victim of a horrendous invasion that has involved repeated charges of war crimes against the Russian forces. However, the public has a legitimate expectation that a country that is receiving billions in support will not engage in environmental attacks on our allies. These pipelines were in the economic zone of two NATO countries.

As the Germans work to find the truth, the question is whether the American public will ever be given transparency on our own government’s complicity or knowledge. The public was asked to pump billions into a war while the administration allegedly covered up an attack by Ukraine on a Western pipeline — and then may have misled the public.

The public also has a right to know if the CIA was told in advance that this attack was coming and either gave tacit approval or said nothing to our allies.

While Johnson is often quoted on his 1929 line about truth in war, the line following was equally poignant: “this mode of propaganda whereby … people become war hungry in their patriotism and are lied into a desire to fight. We have seen it in the past; it will happen again in the future.”

It may have happened in the U.S., and truth was not the only casualty. The American people were treated as chumps who could not handle the truth.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of the best-selling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

 

Accused Coordinator of Nord Stream Pipeline Attack Extradited to Germany

Release of gas from the damaged pipeline (Swedish Coast Guard)

Published Nov 28, 2025 6:20 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

Germany’s Federal Prosecutor confirmed on Friday, November 28, that it has completed the extradition and arrest of one of the accused coordinators of the 2022 attack on the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 and 2. Serhii Kuznietsov, age 49 and a former Ukrainian military officer, was transferred to German custody on November 27, and the Federal Court of Justice officially issued the arrest warrant today.

Kuznietsov, who was arrested in Italy in August, has repeatedly denied involvement in the sabotage of the pipeline. An Italian court had agreed to the extradition to Germany, but the ruling was appealed to a higher court. Italy’s top court approved the extradition on November 20, weeks after Kuznietsov had gone on a brief hunger strike while in Italian jails. He claimed he was being treated poorly and held alongside Islamic terrorists.

German prosecutors detailed their charges in August, reporting that Kuznietsov, along with others, was accused of jointly causing an explosion as well as unconstitutional sabotage, and destruction of buildings. 

They assert that Kuznietsov was one of the coordinators of the attack, working with a group of co-conspirators to plant explosives near the island of Bornholm in the North Sea. The explosives were placed in September 2022, targeting the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. Russia has long asserted that it was a case of sabotage by the West and possibly Ukraine.

According to the filing made by the German prosecutor, Kuznietsov and his accomplices used a sailing yacht departing from Rostock, Germany, to transport the devices into the North Sea. They allege that the yacht had been previously rented from a German company through intermediaries using forged identification documents. 

As many as six other accomplices are still at large. Germany lost a similar extradition claim last month in Poland for another Ukrainian, who they also allege was part of the conspiracy. A Polish judge ruled it was an act of war and not subject to criminal prosecution. The suspect, Volodymyr Zhuravlyov, was released by the Polish authorities. 

German officials report the accused will be brought before the investigating judge of the Federal Court of Justice now that he has been extradited from Italy.

Inside the Chaos of Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan

By RFE/RL staff - Nov 27, 2025

• A U.S.-drafted peace plan has drawn criticism for mirroring Russian demands, including limits on Ukraine’s military and NATO membership.
• 
  
• Leaked audio shows Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff advising a Kremlin aide on how to influence the White House, fueling accusations of bias.
• 
  
• Witkoff’s upcoming sixth trip to Moscow, possibly joined by Jared Kushner, underscores Washington’s push for a deal many see as dangerously one-sided.

The White House’s lead envoy is heading to Russia for a sixth time. Ukraine fears a peace that heavily favors Moscow. A leaked phone call shows the US envoy advising a Kremlin official on how to sweet-talk the White House.

And Russia’s invasion -- now in its 46th month -- has pushed Ukraine’s beleaguered armed forces closer to the breaking point.

There’s a lot that happened in the six days since a US-drafted peace proposal first leaked – not to mention the circumstances under which it was drafted.

The 28-point plan jolted what until recently had been sputtering efforts to halt the Russian war, something that Trump had pledged to do within 24 hours of taking office in January.

Here’s what you need to know as of November 26, as diplomats and negotiators from Washington, Moscow, Kyiv, and many other European capitals wrangle over details over a concrete, and controversial plan.

The Main Sticking Points?

After the US plan leaked, and then was given to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian leader sent his chief of staff and other officials to Geneva for urgent talks with US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Zelenskyy reportedly was blindsided by the plan, which echoed most of the hard-line positions that Russia has held before the invasion.

The Geneva talks, however, produced an "updated and refined" framework – a reworked 19-point plan -- that would deliver a “sustainable and just peace,” both the White House and Zelenskyy's office said.

But Zelenskyy’s comments suggested the thorniest issues might still be on the table. That includes the fate of a chunk of the Donetsk region that the Kremlin has been hellbent on seizing.

Moscow has repeatedly said it must control all of Donetsk, one of five Ukrainian regions Putin baselessly claims are Russian. Ceding land that Ukraine’s forces have kept out of Russia’s clutches, at great cost, would be a massive concession by Kyiv and could have political repercussions for Zelenskyy.

Other pitfalls include the Kremlin’s insistence that Ukraine be forever barred from joining NATO and a potential cap on the size of Kyiv’s military.

The US draft would require Ukraine to “enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO” and the alliance to formalize a pledge that Ukraine will never be admitted.

That approach may be unpalatable for Ukraine, which wants freedom to choose its geopolitical partners – and currently has its NATO aspirations codified in its constitution.

Ukraine also wants to be able to defend itself from any potential future Russian attack.

In previous negotiations, Russia called for Ukraine’s military to be under 100,000 personnel. The initial US draft would cap it at 600,000. A European counterproposal would raise that to 800,000 “in peacetime.”

Several top Republican senators have criticized the initial US plan, including former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

"A deal that rewards aggression wouldn’t be worth the paper it’s written on. America isn’t a neutral arbiter, and we shouldn’t act like one,” he said in a post to X.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt claimed there had been tangible progress, saying there were only “a few delicate, but not insurmountable, details that must be sorted out."

Sixth Time’s A Charm?

A real estate developer with no diplomatic background, Steve Witkoff is the man tapped by Trump to lead efforts to find an end to Russia’s war. He’s met with Putin five times already, traveling to Moscow on his private jet.

Some of Witkoff’s prior actions have raised alarm bells to outside observers, who fear he is being manipulated or that he misunderstands the war’s deeply intractable historical contours.

Witkoff has relied on translators provided by the Kremlin for his conversations with Putin and other officials, rather than using translators authorized by the US Embassy.

After Witkoff’s last meeting with Putin in August, US and European officials said the envoy misunderstood the geography of Ukrainian territory Putin was claiming.

Representative Don Bacon, a Republican who has criticized the Trump administration’s engagement with Russia, called for Witkoff to be fired.

Sending Witkoff back to Moscow, a visit Kremlin foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov confirmed would happen next week, is a sign that the White House is eager to cement some or all of the points that were set in Geneva and Abu Dhabi.

Another wild-card: Trump mentioned his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, might accompany Witkoff, something neither Ushakov nor Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on.

Kushner was reportedly present for previously undisclosed US meeting involving Witkoff and Russian who is also not a diplomat but who has played a starring, unconventional role in negotiations with the Americans: Kirill Dmitriev.

Wait, A Leaked Phone Call?

In late October, Dmitriev, a sharp-tongued, Harvard-trained businessman who heads Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, traveled to Miami, Florida. He met with Republican Representative Anna Luna, giving her what he said were undisclosed Russian files on the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. He also gave her a box of chocolates and a book of Putin quotes.

Dmitriev had been blacklisted in 2022, along with other Russian officials, in punishment for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Trump's Treasury secretary has called him a "Kremlin propagandist."

It later emerged that Dmitriev, who was given an exemption by US authorities to travel, had secret meetings with Witkoff and Kushner while in Miami— reportedly leaving some White House and State Department officials in the dark.

After news of the US proposal emerged last week, several US senators said that Rubio told them the draft was Russian in nature, influenced by a Russian, though Dmitriev was not named.

Rubio, who was in Geneva, insisted it was a US draft.

On November 25, not long before Trump announced Witkoff would travel to Moscow, Bloomberg News published a transcript of what it said was telephone call between Witkoff and Ushakov.

The call took place on October 14, two days before Trump and Putin held their own call, on October 16 -- and about two weeks before Witkoff met Dmitriev in Miami.

According to the transcript, Witkoff advised Ushakov on how to charm Trump on a possible peace deal.

“I would make the call and just reiterate that you congratulate the president on this achievement, that you supported it, you supported it, that you respect that he is a man of peace and you’re just, you’re really glad to have seen it happen. So I would say that,” Witkoff was quoted as saying.

“I know what it’s going to take to get a peace deal done: Donetsk and maybe a land swap somewhere,” Witkoff reportedly said.

Bloomberg did not say how it obtained the recording, which was likely made by US intelligence agencies who routinely monitor and eavesdrop on foreign officials’ conversations. RFE/RL could not independently verify the transcript.

Trump partially confirmed the fact of the call, though not its content: “He’s got to sell this to Ukraine. He’s going to sell Ukraine to Russia. That’s what a dealmaker does.”

Ushakov also appeared to confirm the fact of the call, telling a Russian state TV reporter that it was leaked to undermine the backchannel negotiations. He later told the newspaper Kommersant that his conversation with Witkoff had occurred via the WhatsApp messaging app.

“It is unlikely that such a leak could have come from the participants in the conversation,” he was quoted as saying.

By RFE/RL

Will a Ukraine Peace Deal Really Lure Europe Back to Russian Gas?

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 27, 2025

• Peace deal uncertainty clouds outlook for Russian energy flows, as Washington’s envoys push for a Ukraine-Russia agreement that Moscow has yet to endorse.
• 
  
• Analysts say even a ceasefire would not reverse Europe’s break from Russian gas after 2022.
• 
  
• Gas prices remain subdued despite lower storage, with EU reserves around 77% full and benchmark TTF prices dipping below €30/MWh for the first time in 18 months.
• 
  

As the Trump Administration looks to broker a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, analysts and traders seek to anticipate how a potential agreement could change energy flows in Europe.

To be sure, a peace deal is far from certain, as stumbling blocks and differences remain, while Russia has not weighed in on the plan yet. White House envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week to discuss the peace plan with the Kremlin as Russia appears reluctant to accept any offer that doesn’t fully meet all its demands.

Even if a deal is reached – and this is not the base case scenario of many traders and observers – it is unlikely to change Europe’s reluctance to return to the Russian energy dependence which it has fought so hard to shake off. Most analysts say even a clean ceasefire wouldn’t meaningfully shift Europe’s stance after 2022.

Going off Russian pipeline gas cost European households and industries a lot as energy bills and industry costs surged. More than three years after the energy crisis began to take its toll on Europe’s cost of living and competitiveness, the prospect of eased energy flows from Russia is not particularly appealing to most of the EU.

No Turning Back

Russian gas has not been banned in the EU, and will not be for another year. As-is, the EU aims to stop LNG imports from Russia from 2027.

It’s unlikely that a peace deal would reverse Europe’s course to cut off dependence on Russian energy once and for all.

Europe also doesn’t have an easy way to restart Russian pipeline flows even if a peace deal landed tomorrow. Nord Stream is physically destroyed, Yamal–Europe has been shut since Poland terminated its contract, and Ukraine’s own transit agreement with Gazprom expires next year with no political appetite to renew it. The hardware, contracts, and politics simply don’t line up for a quick return.

Related: UK Risks Gas Shortages in 2030s as Domestic Output Plunges

“Even if sanctions on Russia's energy sector were eased, European governments would be reluctant to re-embrace Moscow as a core supplier after the shock of 2022,” Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote in his opinion column this week.

Indeed, most EU member states haven’t received Russian gas for three years and many don’t plan to return depending on the Kremlin for supply even if a fair peace deal for Ukraine is reached.

After three difficult years, and especially winters, with soaring gas prices in Europe, this year prices have held in a narrow trading range despite the fact that European gas storage sites were filling at a slower pace ahead of the winter compared to previous years. Storage levels are about 10 percentage points lower than at this time last year and the five-year average. As of November 25, gas storage sites across the EU were about 77% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Despite the lower levels of gas in storage, the market appears to believe that Europe will have enough supply this winter, mostly thanks to record U.S. LNG exports, most of which are going to Europe right now.

Even if Russian pipeline gas magically came back into play, Europe has already rebuilt its entire supply picture around LNG.

Strong LNG Flows Ease Winter Supply Concerns

The U.S. exported 10.1 million metric tons of LNG in October, per data from LSEG cited by Reuters, becoming the first country ever to ship out more than 10 million metric tons in a single month. The start-up of Venture Global’s Plaquemines export project and the ramp-up of Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 facility led the increase.

Europe took almost 69% of all U.S. LNG exports last month, the LSEG data showed.

The U.S. is set to further boost its LNG exports in the coming months and years.

The U.S. is expected to export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG this year, up by 25% from 2024, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) this month. Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana has ramped up exports more quickly than the EIA expected, leading the administration to raise its forecast of LNG exports in the current quarter by 3% compared with last month’s outlook. The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to increase by an additional 10% in 2026.

The supply wave of U.S. LNG will continue through this decade as LNG developers are taking advantage of market and regulatory tailwinds to approve investments in new projects.

Supply from Qatar is also set to rise as the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the U.S. is hiking production and export capacity in the biggest LNG expansion ever. Qatar looks to boost its export capacity by a whopping 85% from current levels by 2030.

The LNG supply wave is good news for Europe, if the EU moves to significantly scale back its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which places additional barriers to LNG flows to Europe, and even penalties on companies.

The EU is working to rewrite the proposed legislation, fearing its supply security is at stake.

With the start of the winter heating season amid lower-than-usual inventories, Europe’s gas prices haven’t spiked as in previous winters.

On the contrary, the benchmark price at the TTF hub in Amsterdam slipped below the key threshold of 30 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) this week, for the first time in a year and a half, amid strong LNG flows, milder temperatures, and negotiations about the end of the war in Ukraine.

In a sign that gas supply conditions in France and Europe have stabilized, French supermajor TotalEnergies will demobilize its LNG floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in the port of Le Havre, which was installed in 2022 to serve as a “safety net” for gas supply. The floating terminal is no longer necessary, TotalEnergies said this week.

Another sign of a well-supplied market is that portfolio managers have turned increasingly bearish on European gas.

The latest positioning data showed that speculators shifted from a net long to a net short position on the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures for the first time since March 2024, according to ING.

“The move was once again driven by fresh shorts entering the market, which pushed the gross short to yet another record high,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Thursday.

“This large short position leaves a fair amount of positioning risk, if any supply or demand surprises emerge through the winter.”

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

BACKGROUND

A draft of the 28-point plan reviewed by AFP:

1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.

3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.


4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

10. The US will receive compensation for the security guarantees it provides. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated and recognition of its new territories and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will also be deemed invalid.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.

12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine will be established, including the creation of a Ukraine Development Fund, the rebuilding of Ukraine's gas infrastructure, the rehabilitation of war-affected areas, the development of new infrastructure and a resumption of the extraction of minerals and natural resources, all with a special finance package developed by the World Bank.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy, with discussions on lifting sanctions, rejoining the G8 group and entering a long-term economic cooperation agreement with the United States.

14. Some $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, with the US receiving 50 percent of the profits from the venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen, and the remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle.

15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.

16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.

17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.

18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance.

21. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de-facto recognition along the line of contact. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, which will then be used to create a buffer zone.

22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.

23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve prisoner exchanges and the return of remains, hostages and civilian detainees, and a family reunification programme will be implemented.

25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.

26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by US President Donald Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to the agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

SEE

Ukraine Solidarity Network (US): Oppose Trump’s surrender plan for Ukraine

'For a very long time, Ukrainians have suspected that Steve Witkoff was working for the Russians'

Trump admin crafted Russia-friendly peace plan with help from Kremlin in 'secret meetings'

Trump’s ‘Munich’ agreement is nothing but Russian demands. The world must reject it.

UKRAINE CAPITULATION PLAN

The Nestor Makhno Archive - index