Cities Need to Beat the Heat: India Should Place Moratorium on Cutting Trees

Rashme Sehgal | 07 Jun 2024

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The fetish for infrastructure across North and South India is resulting in rampant deforestation.

Image Credit: People's Archive of Rural India.

Delhi was scorching through May crossing 50 degrees Celsius in the month-end. There has been some controversy regarding the functioning of an IMD sensor in Mungeshwar (Delhi) but there is little doubt that our cities are touching unparalleled highs. Why is this happening. The answer is very simple.

Our cities have become gigantic urban sprawls whose natural tree cover and other foliage has been stripped away to make way for multi-storeyed complexes that cut off natural wind flows. They have become networks of cemented highways and asphalt parking lots with million cars and 50 times the number of ACs (air-conditioners) and exhausts spewing out hot air that have helped create gigantic urban ovens that absorb heat during the day and radiate it back into the atmosphere at night. This heat island effect is known to increase urban temperatures by as much as 15 degrees C compared with rural areas.

Lutyens Delhi may have some tree cover left but by and large, for the 20 million residents struggling to cope with this extra heat, life has become a nightmare.

There are no accurate figures available on the number of deaths due to this intense heat but the figure could well be running into hundreds. Many cities are recording all-time high temperatures.  Chandigarh’s temperature reached 46.7 degree C as did Dehra Dun, where temperatures touched an all-time high of 44 degrees C.

Many explanations have been offered for this heat. There is no doubt that climate change has accelerated extreme weather events. The warming of the Arabian Sea by 1.2 to 1.4 degree C is causing warm winds to blow into the Indian land mass. This has combined with hot winds blowing in from the Arabian Peninsula in West Asia toward Rajasthan and north west India, pushing temperatures even higher.

The El Nino climatic phenomenon is another factor that is often cited as a reason for record-breaking temperatures on land and in the oceans. But the current El Nino event that began in July 2023, is in its waning phase with a good possibility of a La Nina event, which generally cools down global temperatures a few months from now.

The India Meteorological Department or IMD states that a heat wave condition prevails when the temperature rises to 40 degrees C.  A 13 degree jump, as has happened in Delhi, makes it a super scorcher. Is this a presage for worse times in the future?

Experts insist that unless adaptive steps are taken immediately to mitigate the situation, things will only get worse with temperatures going as high as 55 degrees C. Environmentalists have been issuing warning after warning on this score, emphasising that trees are the most cost-effective way to reduce urban heat. Trees do not just provide shade. Water evaporating from their leaves can cool a neighbourhood by a few degrees during the hottest period of the day. Tree leaves also absorb and filter local air pollution which is another endemic problem that our cities are now facing.

Yet we are doing the exact opposite. Government data affirms that over 100 hectares of precious forest land in Delhi has been diverted in the past 15 years for building roads and transmission lines.

During the same period (2009-2023), we have diverted three lakh hectares of forest land for non- forest purposes knowing full well that all that hoopla of compensatory afforestation does not work. In 2020-21, about 30 lakh trees were cut for infrastructure projects while a recent Danish Nature Sustainability study confirmed that India had lost six million fully grown trees (read cut) from our farm lands.

Millions of trees that provided an ecosystem of support and nourishment and beauty hacked away to fulfil this fantasy of `development’. Take the example of the government pushing for a new Delhi-Saharanpur- Dehra Dun Express highway (when a new one via Meerut was completed a year ago) that will reduce driving time by an hour. This highway will involve the axing of Doon’s legendary Sal trees, which scientist Dr Ravi Chopra so poignantly described as the ` soul of Uttarakhand’. Destroying these trees is akin to destroying our souls.

This Expressway will also involve a 12-km long overpass but sadly the pillars of this overbridge are being built on river beds.

The 20-kilometre stretch between Ganeshpur and Dehra Dun passes through the rich Shivalik forests. Experts emphasised repeatedly that these hills and their vegetation have protected the Doon Valley from heat, dust and pollutants, as also provide a home for its rich wildlife and biodiversity. They could just as well have been talking to a wall. The Rs 20,000 crore project has been pushed through for a city already well connected by road, rail and air transport.

A similar dangerous exercise was undertaken in Haryana where the amendment of the Punjab Land Preservation Act (PLPA) would have opened up 25,000 hectares of forest areas in the Aravalli hills for construction and mining activities.

The Aravali hills have been shielding Delhi and Gurgaon against desertification, dust storms and intense heat. Experts have warned the state government that conserving these remaining forested areas was the last chance to prevent Delhi and its neighbourhood from becoming a desert.

Sadly, illegal mining and land grab has given short shrift to these warnings and the public at large is facing the consequences.

The heat we are at present facing has been further accentuated by forest fires that have turned lush tree lined hillsides to ash along both the lower and upper Himalayas. These fires have been smouldering from last November. Instead of combatting them on a war footing, the forest department officials believed these would get extinguished by the winter rains. This did not happen as it turned out to be an unusually dry winter. The fires have now spread across both Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

The fetish for infrastructure across North and South India is resulting in rampant deforestation.  None other than an august body like the NITI Aayog has warned how large-scale deforestation is having an adverse impact on our monsoon. When precipitation levels become depressed because of fewer trees, it means fewer leaves transpire water back to the atmosphere resulting in higher and drier weather conditions.

A direct concomitant of the loss of forests has been the drying up of water sources including our springs and rivers. It should come as no surprise to learn that our main reservoirs have hit their lowest levels in a decade. Data provided by the Central Water Commission highlights that water levels in our 150 reserves are down to between 14% to 20% of their capacity. A monsoon failure will result in a major water crisis.

Engineers who have pushed the Delhi-Dehra Dun Expressway, which cuts across the Shivalik Hills, seem to have overlooked the fact that this mountain range forms a key water catchment area from which several rivers emanate. These rivers include the Mohan Rao, Sukh Rao, Solai, Chillawal, Chika Rao, Binj Rao and Aderi Rao.

The Asharoddi ridge, on which this expressway is being built, is the source of over 20 rivers, including Hindon and Salori. These rivers start from here and flow to Uttar Pradesh.

The National Highways Authority of India and the Uttarakhand government have overlooked the fact that the drying up of these rivers will adversely impact the water security of western Uttar Pradesh. The widening of the Char Dham project is having an equally disastrous effect on the Mandakini, Alaknanada and Bhagirathi and Yamunotri rivers which form part of the upper catchment of the Ganges and Yamuna rivers.

And this seems to be the case with many of our massive highway projects that are being hurriedly pushed through without studying their consequences.

We are overlooking the fact that India is one of the most water stressed regions in the world. The 2019 NITI Aayog report indicated that 600 million Indian are facing high to extreme water stress and the situation will only get worse.

During summer, it is water bodies and trees that have been found to be essential to provide immediate relief and it is both these entities that we are doing away at a time when climate change is causing global warming.

Extreme heat results in a range of illnesses and death. These include heat stroke and hyperthermia. In India, most of our working population work on farms or on the streets where trees alone can provide them with some relief.

Many cities in the world are having to cope with this problem. The solutions they have found are local in nature. Some Western countries are now experimenting with `pocket forests ‘across their cities which will also act as `climate shelters’.  Parks and water fountains are being provided for and roof tops are being planted with vegetation.

In India, we can start by placing a moratorium on the cutting of trees. We can also stop the excessive concretisation of our cities, much of which is builder/politician-driven, and work instead toward greening our cities. This is the most cost- effective way to beat the heat.

 

The writer is an independent journalist. The views are personal.

 

China Springs a BRI Surprise on US

M K Bhadrakumar | 11 Jun 2024

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The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project has become a lodestar in the phenomenal transformation of regional connectivity in Central Asia.

The report of the death of China’s Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] was an exaggeration, after all. Within days of the US President Joe Biden’s acerbic remark during an interview last week with the Time magazine that the BRI has “become a nuisance graveyard initiative,” a trilateral intergovernmental agreement to commence construction work on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan [CKU] railway project was signed in Beijing last Thursday. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping offered congratulations on the trilateral intergovernmental agreement with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and described the CKU as “a strategic project for China’s connectivity with Central Asia, symbolising the three nations’ collaborative efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative.” Xi hailed the agreement as “a show of determination”.

The idea of such a railway project was first proposed by Uzbekistan in 1996 but it languished for over a quarter century thereafter due to the geopolitical and alliance changes in Central Asia, including reservations reportedly on the part of Moscow and Astana. China, which could unilaterally finance CKU, also lost interest and prioritised its ties with Russia and Kazakhstan. 

Principally, the failure of the three countries to reach a consensus on the railway’s route became a vexed issue with China and Uzbekistan favouring a southern route, which would represent the shorter transit route to Europe and West Asia, while Bishkek insisted on the northern route—a longer passage that would connect Kyrgyzstan’s northern and southern regions and boost its economy. 

However, the moribund project took new life following the changing geopolitics of Central Asia, as intra-regional integration processes began gaining traction, the rethink in Moscow in favour of strengthening regional connectivity in the conditions under western sanctions, etc. 

Indeed, with improved railway connectivity, it is not only the connection between China and the two Central Asian countries along the route that will be strengthened, but the interconnectivity in Central Asian region as well. 

However, in a curious reversal of roles, as Central Asia turned into a turf of the great game lately between the US on one side and Russia and China on the other, Washington began taking a dim view of the prospect of such a project to connect the railway systems of China potentially to the European railway network through Turkmenistan, Iran, and Türkiye.  

Suffice to say, in the past two years, with renewed interest, China began viewing the 523 km long railway line — 213 kms in China, 260 kms in Kyrgyzstan, and 50 kms in Uzbekistan — optimistically as a shorter route from China to Europe and West Asia than the existing 900 km corridor that passes through the Trans-Siberian Railway in Russia, which lacks modern infrastructure with only a single non-electrified track that makes it incapable of transiting Chinese goods to Europe, and also mitigate the economic costs associated with Western sanctions on Russia.

Above all, the growing geopolitical tensions over the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have begun posing serious concern and top priority for Beijing to establish alternate land routes to the European market.         

Without doubt, CKU has huge potential in geopolitical, geo-strategic and geo-economic terms. Succinctly put, it will complete the southern passage of the New Eurasian Land Bridge, shaping a convenient transport path from East and Southeast Asia to Central and Western Asia, Northern Africa and Europe. 

Specifically, apart from integrating Central Asian region with the wider transportation network, and connect it better to the global market, Beijing envisages that CKU could be further extended to other countries in future, such as Afghanistan. 

In fact, speaking at the signing ceremony on Thursday alongside Xi and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev underscored that “This road will allow our countries to enter the wide markets of South Asia and the Middle East through the promising Trans-Afghan Corridor.” 

Of course, the construction of CKU, which is expected to start later this year at a cost of $8 billion, poses formidable challenges, being a trans-national project to be executed by a joint venture of between three countries in the BOT  format. No doubt, CKU involves daunting engineering skills with its path traversing the challenging terrain of western China and Kyrgyzstan at altitudes ranging from 2,000-3500 meters and involving the construction of more than fifty tunnels and ninety bridges through Kyrgyzstan’s highest mountains.

But China has vast experience and expertise in pulling it off. Xi said the agreement signed in Beijing provided a “solid legal foundation” for the railway’s construction and it transformed the project “from a vision to a reality”.

The project feasibility study is currently being updated, following the completion of field surveys by Chinese engineers in December. Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at the Research Centre for the Belt and Road of Lanzhou University, told Global Times that construction techniques and financing pose no problems. 

The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated at the daily press briefing in Beijing on Friday, “This important milestone was achieved thanks to the tremendous efforts of different departments and experts, as well as the personal attention and support from the leaders of the three countries.” 

The spokesperson flagged that CKU is “another testament to the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative and demonstrates the popularity of the vision for a community with a shared future for mankind in Central Asia.”

The CKU originates from the western Chinese hub of Kashgar to the Uzbek city of Andijan in Ferghana Valley, passing through Torugart, Makmal and Jalalabad. It connects the Soviet-era railway grid in Uzbekistan leading to Termez on the Amu Darya bordering Mazar-i-Sharif city in Afghanistan. 

Uzbekistan announced last month that the Trans-Afghan railway project is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2027, connecting Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, “facilitating crucial trade routes and bolstering regional connectivity.” Interestingly, the Trans-Afghan Railway project has also figured in the Chinese-Pakistani documents in the past.

The joint statement issued after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China last week vowed to make the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor “an exemplary project of high-quality building of Belt and Road cooperation… (and) recognised the significance of Gwadar Port as an important node in cross-regional connectivity” while also agreeing to play a constructive role “in helping Afghanistan to achieve stable development and integrate into the international community.”

Notably, in the first official recognition of the interim Taliban government by a major nation, Xi Jinping welcomed Asadullah Bilal Karimi, the Taliban-appointed Afghan ambassador, in a formal ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in January, along with envoys from Cuba, Iran, Pakistan and 38 other countries, who also presented their credentials. 

It is entirely conceivable that the time has come for the realisation of the century-old dream of a Trans-Afghan railway. Qatar reportedly has shows interest in funding the project. At a meeting in Kazan in February with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mirziyoyev had disclosed that the Russian side had expressed interest in participating in the development of the technical justification for the project and its promotion. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Transport Vitaly Savelyev who had earlier visited Tashkent, attended the meeting in Kazan.

Certainly, the restoration of full relationship between Moscow and Kabul, which is imminent, will help speed up matters. 

The CKU becomes the lodestar in a phenomenal transformation of regional connectivity in Central Asia and far-flung regions surrounding it. In the current international climate, this has profound geopolitical implications for the Russian-Chinese joint/coordinated efforts to push back the US’ dual containment strategy. 

MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. The views are personal.

 

Courtesy: Indian Punchline

UK, Schengen states make millions off rejected visas

Atika Rehman

Published June 11, 2024 

DAWN

THIS graph shows data for six countries that had the most visa applications rejected. Although Pakistanis have the lowest rejection rate among these countries, the amount recovered from them is higher due to a higher number of applicants. - Rehan Ahmed


LONDON: The United Kingdom and Schengen countries raised millions of pounds and euros in fees from rejected visa applications from Pakistan, new research published this month shows.

The analysis released by Lago Collective, a community of researchers, policymakers and designers, shows that Pakistanis spent £5.3 million on rejected UK visa applications, with close to 40 per cent applications rejected from Pakistan in 2023.


In the same year, around 50pc of Schengen visas from Pakistan were also rejected, with €3.344m spent on applications.

The data was published in collaboration with the EUobserver, which reported that EU governments raked in €130m per year in rejected visa application fees, which were dubbed as ‘reverse remittances’.

Data shows Pakistanis spent £5.3 million on UK, €3.344m on EU visa applications that were unsuccessful

The analysis compiled by Marta For­e­sti and Otho Mantegazza at Lago Coll­ective showed that the cost of Schengen visa rejections in 2023 was €130m.

“Visa inequality has very tangible consequences and the world’s poorest pay the price. You can think of the costs of rejected visas as ‘reverse remittances’, money flowing from poor to rich countries,” Foresti said in a statement to Dawn. “We never hear about these costs when discussing aid or migration, it is time to change that.


“The rejection rate for short-term visa applications from Pakistan is very high, at approximately 40pc for both Schengen countries and the UK, resulting in very significant costs for all involved. This is surprising given the multiple ties between Pakistan, Europe and the UK.

“Yet the challenges faced by Pakistani nationals to reach Europe through legal means became tragically clear a year ago when hundreds died in the Greece boat capsize. People have no choice but to resort to dangerous journeys,” Foresti added. Foresti is the founder of Lago Collective and senior visiting fellow, ODI.

The EUobserver report said the total sum is likely to increase in 2024 since the visa application fee to travel to the EU will increase from 80 to 90 for adults on June 11. It also said the UK raised £44m in rejected fees, which are non-refundable regardless of the outcome. African and Asian countries bear 90pc of the costs for rejected Schengen visas.

Writing for LSE blogs last year, Foresti noted, “Visas regimes are not equal or reciprocal. An Italian national can obtain a visa to Sierra Leone on arrival for £30. A Sierra Leonean wishing to travel to Italy for a business meeting must undertake two separate trips to the Italian Consulate in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, over several weeks at eye-watering costs.”

The analysis notes that the visa application fee for short-term Schengen visas is 80 and for the UK equivalent, £100. For UK visa applications, countries with high rejection rates include Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Algeria — bearing high costs as a result (£5.8m, £5.3m, 2.3m and 3.6m, respectively).

Visa application fees are increasing, to 90 for Schengen/Europe and £120 for the UK. This will result in significant increases in rejected visas in 2024, further exacerbated by the emphasis on tightening migration in many European countries where elections are taking place.

In a statement, Lago said, “These costs are just the tip of the iceberg: in most cases, applicants pay more than the basic application fee, with private agencies involved in processing visa applications and brokers providing additional services along the way. The costs of not being able to travel for business and leisure also results into significant losses for all those involved.”

Published in Dawn, June 11th, 2024Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Unlocking potential

Employees can benefit from simply being heard.

Neda Mulji 

Published June 10, 2024 

DAWN

NOT even 10 per cent of the 531 companies listed on the PSX offer formal training to their employees. These companies have a collective annual turnover of over Rs8 trillion. It wouldn’t take much to calculate the impact on productivity if they were to invest in their employees’ learning and development opportunities. Learning and development (L&D) helps employees identify their strengths, unlocks thinking potential, and opens lines of communication.

Employees can hugely benefit from simply being heard as they sit for conversations with a workplace coach or mentor.

Typical questions that a workplace coach may ask are: what skills can help you do your job better? How can you develop these skills, and what are your priorities for career growth? Ongoing reflection with a mentor or coach not only motivates but can also help align the employee with the company’s goals and strategy, as well as drive individual career growth.

Most employees strive for significance — to be seen and valued for their work. An employer’s motivation to value employees comes from what they can bring to the table in terms of teamwork, capability, efficiency and productivity. Often, employees complain about churning the same wheel, but lots can change if they take action to drive innovation within their teams.

Employees can benefit from simply being heard.

A McKinsey report on successful L&D strategy by Nick van Dam points out key elements of employee development that are beneficial to companies. Besides building individual capabilities and retaining talent, companies create their own ‘brand ambassadors’. This results in a value-based culture where employees embody the company’s reputation and competitive advantage. Brand ambassadors are not just driven by data analytics on productivity, but also the perceived significance of their work, loyalty to the company and ownership of their role.

To be successful, L&D opportunities need to incorporate programmes that are sustainable. From in-person, on the job training and collaboration with colleagues to coaching and mentoring, these programmes can be delivered online. Online training is often viewed with suspicion, as it has been historically considered inferior to in-person interaction. However, studies have shown that online training is a ‘safer’ place giving opportunities for self-expression and individual work to employees who may not be comfortable speaking in public or in a face-to-face set-up.

Those with full schedules during the day are more receptive to online sessions that they can attend sitting at their desk or at home, rather than clearing their calendar for a physical meet-up. Online learning is often also easier to monitor if followed by assessments that gauge learning impact and key takeaways. In fact, online training programmes are all the more necessary in Pakistan to empower professionals to use technology and digital tools with greater ease in this fast-evolving era of learning management systems.

Ninety-one per cent of Fortune 500 companies offer mentoring and coaching programmes. This correlation between investment in employee development and the companies’ success is not coincidental. An increasing number of global companies are looking towards investment in professional development, particularly reskilling and coaching as a way of increasing produc-tivity. Not only does L&D target goals, it also ensures a continuous learning culture so that employees are able to respond to the fast-changing work and external environment.

Development opportunities have come to be recognised as a deciding factor for the ‘employer of choice’. The ‘millenials’ are increasingly choosing companies that can commit to their gro­wth. Most employees choose to stick with a company that caters to their well-being, keeping them enga­g­­ed in the company’s values, goals and te­­amwork as opposed to reporting on day-to-day tasks.

Investing in emplo­yees not just saves the company the costs associated with a high turnover, it also ensures that skills are not misdirected, with employees stuck in roles not suited to their ability. It helps employers make conscious decisions for placement, promotion and professional development. It also ensures that employees stay motivated, learn how to manage themselves and rise up to challenges as a team. The employee engagement that results from these efforts helps safeguard and promote the company’s reputation with its customers.

Understandably, many companies avoid the costs of training employees for fear of losing them to competitors, but the price of avoiding training will always be higher. As Henry Ford once said, “The only thing worse than training your employees and having them leave is not training them and having them stay.”

The writer is an author, teacher trainer and a Fellow of the Higher Education Academy, UK. The views expressed are her own and do not reflect those of her employer.
neda.mulji@gmail.com
X: @nedamulji

Published in Dawn, June 10th, 2024

Can the Great Wall stop PTI?

Pakistan may be just a few days away from deploying and extensively using a Chinese system to monitor and block social media content.

Abbas Nasir 

Published June 9, 2024 

DAWN

WITH the budget round the corner and the IMF-enforced hardship it will inevitably bring for the urban poor and the middle class in particular, the question is whether the jailed PTI leader Imran Khan can channel the resultant public anger into public protests and imperil the hybrid system.

I agree that what I’ve just said deals with hypothetical situations. But you will also agree that while hypothetical, these are also very realistic, plausible scenarios, and therefore, it won’t be out of place to discuss them and try and assess the state of play over the next few weeks.

PTI has had phenomenal success in the use of social media, not just for reaching out to, and messaging, its supporters but also for organising its rank and file. As two recent posts on X on Imran Khan’s handle demonstrated, despite being imprisoned, he retains the ability to communicate with his support base.

Ergo, it is safe to assume that if the budget triggers any popular backlash, the use of social media can potentially play a vital role in galvanising and channelising that public anger into an anti-government movement. Any such exercise will have to overcome many challenges.

Pakistan may be just a few days away from deploying and extensively using a Chinese system to monitor and block social media content.

First and foremost are the repercussions from last year’s May 9 protests that drove a wedge between the PTI and the establishment and opened up a seemingly unbridgeable gulf between the two. In its aftermath, the crackdown that ensued tested the will of the PTI support base in the face of state oppression.

While many party loyalists, including a number of women, from Yasmeen Rashid and Aliya Hamza to Sanam Javed, have remained incarcerated for over a year now, there has been little public pressure that the party has been able to muster for their release.

Even then, the leader himself has been getting relief in one case after another from the judiciary, a section of which, it seems, would be on a collision course with the establishment because of such decisions. This alienation between the two can lead to untold consequences that the country and its shirtless multitudes can least afford.

For its part, the establishment feels that the legal cases against the former prime minister are ironclad. The establishment appears to believe that some in the superior courts are not deciding the cases on merit but on the basis of a soft corner for the PTI leader. Some of the judges have said that immense pressure is being brought to bear on them from the security services because their judgements are based on the evidence before them and decided strictly in line with the law and the Constitution, and not what the establishment wants.

As we speak, there seems to be no sign of anyone moving away from confrontation. If anything, there is daily evidence of positions being further cemented, with Mr Khan and his imme­nse support base on one side, and the establishment and its civilian political allies on the other.

Let’s take up another vital factor that would play a role over the coming weeks. Yes, the reference here is to social media. The PTI had a head-start in the social media game, and its complete and total domination in that area was demonstrated in February’s election.

After the ECP decision to deny PTI its ‘bat’ symbol was endorsed by the Supreme Court, party candidates stood in that election as ‘independents’. Ahead of polling day, many observers expressed the fear that, having been deprived of its symbol, its candidates would be at a gross disadvantage as voters (some illiterate) would struggle to find and stamp their desired person on the ballot paper.

But lo and behold! those fears proved ill-founded. The PTI social media teams sprang into action and developed an app which facilitated the workers/ voters at the grassroots level in identifying party-backed candidates.

I can’t say to what extent the denial of the symbol impacted the party vote eventually, but it would be safe to say it didn’t turn out to be the decisive handicap as some had hoped. This is how vital the social media is to PTI’s success. Right or wrong, its narrative has been seen as a winner, and any counter-narrative has failed to gain any traction.

If what sources are saying is correct, Pakistan may be just a few days away from deploying and extensively using a Chinese system, similar to the one called the ‘Great Wall of China’ or GWC (which Beijing uses to great success), to monitor and block social media content, and even police VPNs which many Pakistanis have used since X was blocked. Not sure if this is part of CPEC!

This software will be used, we are told, in a manner that does not place any obstacles in the path of dozens of software companies and call centres that are currently earning the country some foreign exchange. A multibillion-dollar market still remains untapped.

That is the plan at least. Our competence to deliver such fine-tuned systems is another matter. Who knows if the draconian legislation that the Punjab Assembly has passed to muzzle social media, and similar proposed legislation that is currently before parliament in Islamabad, is a back-up in case our version of the GWC fails?

It is remarkable that any discussion of the media these days almost always excludes traditional media, such as the dozens of 24x7 TV channels and newspapers, apart from online news sites. There could only be one reason for this: the traditional media is now so much under the thumb of the authorities that it is largely seen as their mouthpiece. Notwithstanding the very, very few honourable exceptions. Tragic, if you ask me.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, June 9th, 2024

In protest mode

 As much as we live in an age of protest, we also live in an age of crackdowns, and the threat from authoritarianism and censorship continues to loom large, including in ‘democratic’ contexts.

Huma Yusuf 

Published June 10, 2024

DAWN

 

IN a year of elections, some signs of democratic revival were inevitable. These have come in the electoral outcomes in India, Mexico and South Africa, where leaders have been held accountable at the ballot box. You can almost hear those who believe in due process breathing a collective sigh of relief after years of authoritarian creep. But what impact will these democratic stirrings have on public protest, and why does it matter?

In recent months alone, Pakistan has seen protests against inflation, food prices, border policies that hamper local trade, energy prices, alleged poll rigging, censorship, disappearances, etc. We are not alone. Indeed, we are living through a new age of protest.

A 2021 report on World Protests from the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung think tank and Initiative for Policy Dialogue found that the number of protests worldwide had tripled between 2006 and 2020. The research found that 54 per cent of the protests recorded were triggered in response to “perceived failure of political systems or representation”, while 28pc included demands for “real democracy”.

The year 2022 saw even more protests — 11,000 across 145 countries — largely against high costs of living. In 2023, protests erupted in 83 countries, on proliferating matters as wide ranging as the Israel-Palestine war, cost of living crisis, climate justice, assaults on democracy, women’s rights and government service provision.

Will there be a coalescing of demands?

The intersectionality of protests is also increasing. Take, for example, the global protests against Israel’s atrocities in Gaza. Climate change activists aligned with the pro-Palestine protest movement early on, arguing that climate justice has to be underpinned by basic human rights and security and freedom from occupation.

Climate activists have been pointing out the immense climate toll of the war: greenhouse gas emissions from war activities, plus the significant emissions expected from future reconstruction activities. They have also accused Israel of carrying out ecocide, for example, by razing olive trees that have stood on the land for centuries. Given the West’s current focus on tackling climate change, the disregard for these issues in Palestine is highlighted as further proof of double standards, an argument that resonates with the core messaging of pro-Palestine protests.

More powerfully, the two movements have identified that many financial institutions or corporates that fund or facilitate the fossil fuels sector are the same that facilitate the Israeli defence sector or Israeli companies that operate in or profit from settled areas. By joining forces, the groups have been able to share tactics and intensify pressure on economic institutions.

Similarly, global women’s rights and feminist movements have aligned with pro-Palestine protesters given the excessive impact of the conflict on women and children, who account for at least half the lives lost in Gaza since October. Beyond the death toll, women have also been subject to sexual violence, inadequate healthcare, miscarriages and lack of nutrition. Allyship with Gazan women is becoming a feminist imperative.

Will this epic year of elections reduce some of this protest activity or intensify it? Will there be a coalescing of demands or further diversification? The growing intersectionality of protests has been a fascinating development, forcing disparate groups to engage with each other and find common ground, a refreshing development in polarised times.

But in the context of vibrant democr­acies, multifaceted protests are less ef­­­f­­­ective in holding democratic gov­­ern­ments to account or effecting policy chan-ge. As I recently wrote in relation to pro-Palestine prot­ests on US camp­uses, the most effective protests are the ones with local, relevant and tailored demands.

The activist community must consider how the gradually shifting political landscape will affect protest movements, because the ultimate goal must be to keep the spirit of protest and accountability alive. And as much as we live in an age of protest, we also live in an age of crackdowns, and the threat from authoritarianism and censorship continues to loom large, including in ‘democratic’ contexts.

For lasting, positive change, protest activity is essential. As political scientist Erica Chenoweth has pointed out, civil disobedience is the most effective way of changing political trajectories, with protests twice as likely to achieve their goals than violent means or any form of conflict. Chenoweth also found that it takes around 3.5pc of a population actively participating in protests to effect meaningful political change. In all scenarios, that means we should remain ready to take to the streets (literally or metaphorically), and remain open, once we’re there, to talk to each other rather than across each other.

The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.
X: @humayusuf

Published in Dawn, June 10th, 2024

PAKISTAN

Minority rights

Many are scared of a public discussion on the issue of Pakistan’s minorities.

Arifa Noor

Published June 11, 2024 

DAWN

PERHAPS 2024 was always meant to be the year voters were going to knock some sense into those who grew complacent in their power, especially in South Asia.

Indeed, we Pakistanis were not the only ones who misjudged an election; our neighbours and frenemies managed to do something similar, though the worst offenders on both sides were those who get paid to pontificate in front of the TV cameras.

In India, as in Pakistan, the government might have ended up with someone ‘expected’ to win — without the jugglery of Form 47 — but only after surprise, excitement and consternation.

The BJP, which had expectations of a ‘grand’ win, didn’t even manage a simple majority in the Lower House; its government will now be dependent on allies, who, it is expected, will not just extract their pound of flesh but also restrain any big ideological plans of the ruling party. Some are going even further. They hope a stronger opposition as well as bigger government allies can begin some kind of a rollback of the unwelcome legislation done in the recent past. Even more critical analysis questions whether the government will survive.

But before this next stage, the autopsies and post-mortems of the voters’ choice continues.

Was it the unequal economic growth of the past 10 years, where unemployment and inflation had taken the sheen off the BJP, despite the extensive social welfare schemes? Or did the government’s assertion of making changes to the constitution scare away voters who feared the abolition of reservations? Is there some truth to the stories of the RSS not being too keen on the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine returning for a third time? Or was it simply local politics, where UP, the friction between the BJP men in Delhi and the chief minister of the state, and a strong INDIA alliance continue to be discussed.

It is perhaps a combination of factors, which vary from state to state. Those who keep a close eye on Indian politics argue that no single factor can explain the result across India. But the Modi brand has taken a hit.

Many are scared of a public discussion on the issue of Pakistan’s minorities.

At the same time, there have been sobering analyses pointing to how much has changed in the past decade, especially for the beleaguered Muslim citizens. This is brought home by an excellent story by Al Jazeera, which reported on how political parties are so wary of being called pro-Muslim by the BJP that they have been missing from the electoral discourse generally, except for dog-whistling by offenders. A similar theme emerges from the interview of Mujib ur Rehman (the author of Shikwa-e-Hind: The Political Future of Indian Muslims) by Karan Thapar for The Wire.

Sobering though these pieces of journalism are, they also make uncomfortable reading for Pakistanis. For there is something so familiar and yet unfamiliar in hearing the debate over the present and future of a religious minority. While uncomfortable because our own history vis-à-vis minority communities is no better, it is even more unsettling that no election in our recent history has led to a debate on whether or not the poll could prove to be a turning point for inclusivity and plurality.

One reason for this is that because we are so caught up in fair elections, civil-military relations and governance, everything else passes unnoticed.

Second, the state has been using religion, for the purposes of legitimacy, for so long that no mainstream political party can take a nuanced, let alone radically different, position on minority rights.

Condemnation of violence is just about all that most of us are capable of. This is why few notice the foregone conclusion: religious minorities have been made invisible in our electoral politics. This is no longer ‘news’ in our neck of the woods. In fact, in Pakistan, it is perhaps easier to speak up for ethnic groups and their rights — consider the Baloch and the interest political parties take in enforced disappearances when in the opposition. But even those who have borne the brunt of state excesses will turn a blind eye to the violence being carried out against the Christians in Sargodha or the recent killing of two Ahmadis.

Consider the coverage of Jaranwala, where, too, the Christian community had been attacked. A largely ‘apolitical’ caretaker cabinet was not averse to official visits to show solidarity with Pakistani citizens, while press coverage was also relatively substantial. However, even then, no ‘real’ leadership turned up — local or national. Most of those who take part in elected politics stayed away.

By the time elections took place and a new government came to power, another tragic incident followed in Sargodha, where a mob attacked a Christian family. There were no visits by elected or government officials, and little condemnation was visible. Press coverage was actively discouraged. The recent HRCP report points this out.

That a political party is found to be involved, in one way or the other, in most of these incidents is not of concern to anyone. The TLP faces no censure from the state for the most part.

In the case of the Ahmadi community, which has been coming under attack increasingly, even press coverage is missing. Other than an English newspaper or human rights activists, few report on such horrifying incidents. Many are simply scared of a public discussion on the issue.

Consider the two Ahmadi men recently killed by a young man; the accused says he was motivated by what he saw on social media but chances are no draconian laws or firewalls will target hate speech, which will flourish unabated on the ground and in cyberspace.

It is hard to see if we will ever be able to find any light at the end of this proverbial tunnel. And before I get attacked by those who are offended by comparisons, one way or the other, this was simply a lament —a collection of random thoughts which began with an election result and ended with multiple questions about a region that continues to grapple with the question of minority rights decades after gaining independence.

The writer is a journalist.
Published in Dawn, June 11th, 2024

Rampant zealotry

Editorial 

DAWN

Published June 11, 2024

THE cancer of fanaticism continues to eat away at Pakistan’s vitals, taking innocent lives and causing communal ruptures in society that are very difficult to heal. The latest victims of hate include two Ahmadi men who were gunned down in apparently targeted killings in the south Punjab town of Phalia on Saturday. Both men were reportedly shot by a teenage suspect, who attended a local seminary. The suspect’s confessional details, which this paper reported quoting law enforcers, are a chilling reminder of the radicalisation process that turns ordinary people into cold-blooded killers. According to the police, the young suspect said he was motivated by content on social media to kill members of the Ahmadi community. Moreover, a spokesman for the minority group claimed that a hate campaign spearheaded by some local preachers targeting the community had been launched several weeks ago. While many members of the minority community have been killed, their graveyards have also been desecrated, and their places of worship targeted even in supposedly more ‘cosmopolitan’ areas, such as Karachi.

Though the Constitution may state that the lives of all citizens are to be protected, while also promising religious groups the right to practise their faith, like many other constitutional guarantees, these safeguards are ignored in today’s Pakistan, particularly when it comes to minority communities. And while communal groups have always existed in the country, today these malignant actors are spreading their divisive influence far and wide, both from the pulpit and cyberspace. Decades of myopic policies pursued by the state have further aided the radicalisation of significant portions of the population. Whether it is Ahmadis, Christians, or even denominations within the fold of Islam, citizens belonging to all confessional backgrounds have suffered at the hands of extremists. Deradicalisation is a long-term project, and it may take years — if not decades — to reverse course. But what the state can do immediately is to ensure that citizens belonging to all faith groups live in peace. Those involved in murderous attacks based on religious grounds must be swiftly brought to justice, while those who aid and abet hate groups similarly need to face the law. And while censorship cannot be supported, hatemongers cannot be allowed to freely use social media and the internet to rouse up religious hatred and promote violence.

Published in Dawn, June 11th, 2024

DEMOCRACY

Global reversal

Dr Niaz Murtaza 

Published June 11, 2024

DAWN

THIRTY years of history since Francis Fukuyama pronounced the end of history, given the apparent triumph of Western democracy, show democracy in retreat even in the West. The Economist’s Democracy Index score has fallen since 2000, globally, including in the West. It now even calls the US, the oldest one, a flawed democracy. It is not just autocracy, but also populism and religious extremism that undermine liberal tenets. The 15 largest states by population, each numbering over 100 million people and together accounting for nearly two-thirds of the global population, show a sharp reversal towards autocracy after some democratic gains.

India has seen autocracy rising, especially against the minorities, under Narendra Modi since 2014. It’s too early to see his recent electoral setback as a permanent reversal. China’s one-party autocracy has become a personalised populist one under Xi Jinping since 2013. Xi has nixed the term limit for presidents and cemented his philosophy into the constitution, while cracking down against minorities. The US, too, fell prey to a xenophobic populist autocracy under Donald Trump who may yet win a second term, in which he promises to be more autocratic. Staunch US support for Israel’s brutal genocide have undercut its democratic claims.

We next have five states in post-army transitions. After Suharto’s fall in 1997, Indonesia has had regular elections and steady democratisation. But the 2024 elections were won by Prabowo Subianto, an ex-army man accused of serious past abuses, thus raising fears he will rule autocratically. Pakistan moved towards democracy with two free elections in 2008 and 2013 after a decade of army rule, but since then has had two controversial polls and autocracy under hybrid regimes led by the populist Imran Khan and then PML-N.

Nigeria has had regular elections since 1999, but many of them, including the 2023 one, were seriously flawed, The Economist calls Nigeria a hybrid regime with illiberal governance. Brazil, too, has broken from its military past to hold regular elections but saw five years of rule by the xenophobic Jair Bolsonaro who ruled autocratically. He lost to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva last year. But it is too early to write off populist autocracy. Bangladesh has become a one-party autocracy with its third rigged polls after it ended its neutral caretaker system.

Democratic gains are being lost.

Russia has become a personal fiefdom for the populist Vladimir Putin who may rule for another decade. Mexico bucks the trend in at least not showing a sharp autocratic shift though it is still a hybrid state for the Economist. Five years of relatively successful rule by the leftist (seen by some as a bit populist) Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the recent win of the feminist Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo augur well for Mexico. Ethiopia made promising democratic moves under Abiy Ahmed, which won him a Nobel Prize. Bu since then, it has seen autocracy with the brutal war in Tigray.

Japan has kept its bearings and escaped even populism. The Philippines has held regular elections since the fall of Ferdinand Marcos but had a populist autocracy under Rodrigo Duterte, who has now been replaced by Marcos’s son as president and his own daughter as vice president. Egypt is back to a military-backed autocracy after a brief period of elections won by the Muslim Brotherhood. Finally, Congo, after Mobutu Sese Seko’s fall, saw one to two free elections but has since seen a series of rigged elections and autocratic rule.

Thus, 13 of the 15 states have seen de­­mocratic reversals, about half have seen the rise of populist politics, and about a quarter the rise of religious extremist politics. The trend affects developed as well as underdeveloped states, Western and non-Western ones, states of multiple faiths, and the three largest regions — Asia, Africa and the Americas. The widespread scope suggests that global factors, too, are feeding the trend beyond national ones.

A key factor has been the failure to democratise capitalism and the increasing inequality it has given. After triumphing against communism, capitalism vanquished the gains of even welfare democratic states for the lower classes. A second factor has been the failure to institutionalise democracy globally as the internally democratic West maintains brutal autocracy outside its borders. Thirdly, increased uncertainty spawned by globalisation and new technology has also made it easier for autocrats to stoke fear and consolidate power. Against all this is the absence of a new global progressive ideology to address current global challenges. Only such an ideology can reverse the global reversal of democracy and attract the masses.

The writer is a political economist with a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley.
murtazaniaz@yahoo.com
X: @NiazMurtaza2

Published in Dawn, June 11th, 2024

INDIAN ELECTION

Is re-engagement possible?

There are many obstacles to a thaw in the frosty India-Pakistan relationship.

Maleeha Lodhi 

Published June 10, 2024 

THE BJP’s electoral victory has handed Narendra Modi a third consecutive term in office. In a closely fought election, the Congress party’s INDIA alliance made an unexpectedly strong showing. This left BJP short of a majority to form a government on its own and broke the myth of Modi’s invincibility.

Nevertheless, Modi cobbled together a majority with alliance partners to govern, but with a diminished mandate. He will head a coalition government and have to rely on wily and fickle political allies to survive in power. For a man unused to sharing power, dealing with coalition politics and regional kingmakers will be uncharted territory, as well as contending with a powerful opposition.

This challenging scenario will oblige Modi 3.0 to focus a great deal of attention on domestic political consolidation. That will likely see him double down on his Hindutva ideology to reinforce his Hindu base, especially as the BJP was mostly unable to make inroads beyond its strongholds. Modi and BJP’s vicious anti-Muslim rhetoric during the election campaign was more than just a tool of political strategy. It reflected party ideology and its deep-seated belief about the place of Muslims in ‘Hindu India’.

Its hard-line policy towards Muslims is therefore likely to continue. Coalition partners are unlikely to restrain the BJP in that regard. To consolidate its Hindu constituency, the Modi government might pursue with even greater vigour its Hindutva agenda, involving actions such as a uniform civil code, ending reservations for Muslims, and seizing mosques in Varanasi and Mathura to claim them as old temples. All these are part of its manifesto.

Related to this was the BJP’s resort to Pakistan-bashing in the election campaign. Modi compared his muscular response to cross-border terrorism with the infirm approach of his predecessors, saying he will continue to “hit terrorists in their homes” (“Hum ghar me ghus ke marenge“).His reference was to the air strikes he ordered on Balakot in February 2019 after a terrorist attack in Pulwama in occupied Kashmir. BJP leaders’ other pronouncements on Pakistan were equally belligerent and offensive. This too was part of the party’s strategy to appeal to its Hindu support base, having determined that the Pulwama episode had helped it reap rich electoral dividends in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Again, anti-Pakistan tirades were not just election politics but indicative of the combative approach the BJP government may adopt towards Islamabad. Moreover, domestic political problems will create the temptation to ramp up anti-Pakistan rhetoric and for Modi to further harden his Pakistan policy.

These factors do not create a propitious climate for India-Pakistan re-engagement and, in fact, limit the scope for a thaw in the frosty relationship. The path to normalisation of ties is in any case strewn with formidable difficulties. The diplomatic deadlock between the two neighbours has remained unbroken for the past five years.

Relations were ruptured when India illegally annexed Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, bifurcated it, and absorbed it into the Indian Union in brazen violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Formal dialogue was suspended by Delhi years earlier. And in February 2019, in the wake of the Pulwama crisis, India slapped 200 per cent customs duty on Pakistani imports in a bid to restrict trade with Pakistan. Islamabad’s response to Delhi’s Kashmir action was to halt trade altogether and downgrade diplomatic relations by recalling its high commissioner.

There are many obstacles to a thaw in the frosty India-Pakistan relationship.

However, backchannel communication between them led in February 2021 to recommitment by both sides to observe a ceasefire on the Line of Control in Kashmir in accordance with a 2003 understanding. This was a significant development following the dangerous confrontation between the two countries in February 2019, when Indian air strikes in Pakistani territory pushed the two countries to the brink of conflict. Agreement on an LoC truce marked a much-needed de-escalation of tensions. The ceasefire has since mostly held. But expectations that this temporary thaw would pave the way for the resumption of a peace process did not materialise.

The diplomatic impasse has since persisted, with verbal clashes punctuating tense relations. Islamabad made the resumption of dialogue contingent upon India rescinding its August 2019 action. Delhi showed no interest in resuming talks, saying that Kashmir was off the negotiating table.

Instead, it continued its repressive policy and human rights violations in occupied Kashmir. Despite Pakistan’s protests, India proceeded in the next three years to undertake a slew of sweeping legal, demographic, and electoral changes in occupied Kashmir aimed at disempowering Kashmiri Muslims. This further vitiated the climate and left ties more fraught.

In May 2023, foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari visited India to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. But the opportunity for any re-engagement proved elusive as no bilateral meeting took place. Instead, the foreign ministers of the two countries traded stinging barbs, while India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, accused Bilawal of being the “spokesperson of a terrorism industry”.

Meanwhile, another irritant was added last year to the long list of disputes between the two countries when India threatened to unilaterally modify the Indus Waters Treaty’s dispute settlement provisions. It also boycotted a court of arbitration hearing at the Hague on Indian hydroelectric projects on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers disputed by water-stressed Pakistan. The 1960 treaty has for over six decades survived wars, confrontations and tensions between the two countries, but Delhi’s stance put at stake the fate of this vital treaty that governs the sharing and management of trans-border rivers.

Against this fraught backdrop, the prospects for any normalisation of relations appear slim. There is certainly the need for a working relationship and regular communication — even by a back channel — to manage tensions. Norma­li­sa­tion of ties, however, has to be on a reciprocal and mutually beneficial basis.

For now, Delhi’s well-known terms for re-engagement — minus settlement of disputes — Modi’s hostile stance on Pakistan, and BJP leaders’ threats to seize Azad Kashmir, hold out little hope for any forward movement in bilateral ties.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
Published in Dawn, June 10th, 2024

The change is welcome, if cosmetic

Jawed Naqvi 

Published June 11, 2024

DAWN

THE change is cosmetic for the Modi government, for at the end of the day, it’s still a Modi government. For the opposition, the elections have brought a new energy and clarity of purpose. Principally, it is the fight for the idea of India as enshrined in the constitution.

The poorest voters feared the 400 seats sought by Narendra Modi were to subvert Dr Ambedkar’s statute book of rights and duties, which has so far guarded their core interests. They are the ones who cut the BJP to size.

If we remember Nehru’s election symbol, it was a pair of bullocks, indicating the Congress party’s rural base. After Manmohan Singh surrendered it to the stock exchange, Rahul Gandhi is putting the focus back on villages, their caste challenges, and the quest for jobs for their unemployed youth swarming the cities. The two ideals stated in the preamble that irk the Hindu right greatly are the promise to defend ‘secularism’ and ‘socialism’. And both have surfaced promptly in the opposition’s campaign. It is not uncommon in Delhi’s drawing rooms to hear the Congress being cursed for egalitarian appeal but it appears to have been reinvented with Rahul Gandhi’s reinvention of himself.

On the other side, Prime Minister Modi has lost his swagger given the compulsions of yielding to powerful regional satraps pressing their own interests, which takes a toll. Listening to others for the first time would be a test of patience for him, for he has no experience whatsoever of working with a coalition — not in Gujarat, not in Delhi.

Equally importantly, meantime, is his giving up the habit of referring to himself in the third person. Modi’s guarantee. Modi’s promise. These have been replaced with NDA this, NDA that. He is lampooned more freely since the results downsized him on June 4. A caricature shows West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee measuring his hollowed chest with a tape, and exclaiming: “20 inch!” She, indeed, deflated the BJP in West Bengal by more than the 36 inches she expunged from Modi’s boast of having a 56-inch chest.

All this is greatly amusing if the trimming of his wings is what one should be rejoicing over. True also are the visuals about Muslims, where the brakes have been evidently applied on abusive trolling against them.

Has Modi given up his belief of being a divine avatar, different from fellow humans?

But has Modi given up his belief of being a divine avatar, different from fellow humans? None can say for sure, for Modi is Modi. How could he give up all his ingrained habits and beliefs in one go?

On the first day in office — while curiously delaying the allocation of portfolios to 72 ministers amid rumours of a tussle — he signed off a routine money transfer to the farmers’ fund, only to claim to TV cameras that he was a lover of farmers. This gave the Congress a chance to interrupt his reverie. “The headline management and PR campaign of the one-third prime minister has once again started from the first day of his third term,” said Jairam Ramesh. Opposition MP Supriya Sule ad-libbed that the need was to wipe off the farmers’ debt — something Modi readily does for his corporate associates — not give them a dole.

Beyond the cosmetic veneer is the question: can he solve India’s problems of unemployment and biting inflation? Not within the confines of the neoliberal top-down economy he embraced, in fact, inherited from Manmohan Singh’s government. He gave five kilos of rice to the poor with his photo beaming from every bag or gas cylinder given in heavily advertised charity. During the campaign, he was seen asking the people to return the favour — and would they not. Indeed, many women voted for him.

Would that solve the problems of yawning disparity, sub-Saharan human development indices in BJP-ruled states? Very unlikely. When asked about the telling economic disparity, Mr Modi had famously snapped: “Shall I make everyone poor?” If that answer isn’t tweaked or edited soon, things would begin to look pretty much as they did.

On the wider landscape, there is the challenge of social harmony. In the early hours of Friday, shortly before Mr Modi was unanimously asked to head the NDA group as a prelude to his third swearing-in, two Muslim men were lynched in BJP-ruled Chhattisgarh.

According to The Hindu, the residents of Uttar Pradesh — Guddu Khan and Chand Miya Khan — were found dead while a third, Saddam Qureshi, sustained injuries in the Arang area of Raipur district. A common relative of Chand and Saddam said the three were lynched by a mob. He claimed they were waylaid, their vehicle was punctured, and they were thrashed and thrown off a bridge, causing the death of Chand and Guddu and injuries to Saddam. ‘Nine to ten persons’, some with previous history of cow vigilantism, have been questioned but a case was registered only for culpable homicide, not murder.

In Jammu, on Saturday, the day of the swearing-in, suspected Kashmiri gunmen opened fire on a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims to the Vaishno Devi Temple. The bus fell into a gorge killing nine and injuring several.

How shall we read both the incidents? Is India headed for more of the same under Modi’s new term? Or will things change because the two centrist allies are expected to heal the mistrust sowed between Hindus and Muslims in Kashmir and elsewhere? Are we to expect anything to improve the lot of Manipur where anti-Christian violence erupted again following the elections when the BJP retained power in the state assembly and the Congress won two MPs?

Meanwhile, an NDA ally from Maharashtra refused to take the oath of office, rejecting a junior minister’s portfolio. Praful Patel has been a ranking minister in earlier cabinets. There’s trouble brewing for Mr Modi ahead of crucial state polls in BJP-ruled Maharashtra and Haryana in October.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.
jawednaqvi@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, June 11th, 2024

NDA, not BJP

Umair Javed

Published June 10, 2024 

DAWN

RESULTS of the Indian general election from this past week took most observers by surprise. A comfortable return to power for the BJP was the dominant analytical consensus prior to June 4. A return to power did take place, but Modi’s perch looks a lot more precarious.

Preliminary number-crunching and analysis in the handful of days since the results were announced reveal some key trends. As per Abishek Jha’s analysis for The Hindustan Times, a few primary statistics tell the story of this election. The first is that while the BJP’s vote-share remains roughly the same, its median vote share fell by around four per cent, the implication being that for the median seat it contested, BJP received a smaller share of the votes than in 2019.

Another key aspect was a return to electoral competitiveness for the Congress. Its median vote share went up by nearly 10pc to 38.8pc in the seats that it contested, while its rate of success in all contested seats also increased by nearly 2.5 times to 30pc.

A decline in the BJP’s median vote share and a concurrent rise in the Congress’s meant that the average victory margin per seat in this election fell by about 5pc compared to the last election. BJP alone lost 65 seats, while the INDIA alliance gained over 100. Overall, these figures reveal a decidedly more competitive election than the last two.

It is worth focusing on regional variations that can help explain the overall outcome of India’s recent polls.

So what explains these numbers, especially when the incumbent’s pre-results posturing was about crossing 400 seats, and most exit polls had them comfortably above 300?

Distilling these results to a single factor impacting a polity of 900 million voters would be amiss, given the scale of India’s political diversity. Ins­t­ead, it’s worth focusing on regional variations that can help explain the overall outcome. A few astu­­te observers, like Yogendra Yadav, correctly read the tea-leaves prior to the results by focusing on ground-level sentiment in Uttar Pradesh. It was, in fact, results in UP (along with Mahara­shtra) that help explain the BJP’s diminished position.

Grassroots accounts from UP point to several factors at play. One was a growing level of frustration with jobless growth; ie, stories about a rapidly rising GDP but without a concurrent rise in employment, especially at the lower tiers of income distribution. Colloquially referred to as India’s K-shaped post-pandemic recovery, recent successes in boosting GDP growth stand accompanied with widening inequality. Gains at the top are highly visible, with a new class of nouveau riche consuming conspicuously in the big cities, but are largely missing for poorer households in small towns, peri-urban localities, and villages (ie, mofussil areas).

This is also closely linked to India’s strange structural transformation, where agriculture’s share in value addition has fallen sharply, but its share in total employment remains persistently high. Unequal 8pc growth makes for good headlines, enriches upper-income households, and cultivates aspiration among upwardly mobile segments. But it also leaves large swathes of the population locked out of the benefits of growth with no clear pathway of getting in.

Observers were of the view that the post-Covid expansion in welfare programmes would be sufficient to offset the foundational flaw of jobless growth. It turns out that while welfare did shore up support for some key segments, it was not enough to keep lower/scheduled caste groups on their side. This is visible through the fact that the BJP lost more seats reserved for scheduled caste candidates than general category seats.

Crucially, these results also show the (current) limits of a politics that draws on divisive, communal mobilisation, especially in the face of economic uncertainty. The fact that BJP lost in the constituency of Faizabad, where Ram Mandir was recently inaugurated with much fanfare, and in the town of Banswara in Rajasthan, where Modi made references to mangalsutras being stolen by Muslims, is fairly revealing. A section of the electorate appears to be either exhausted with communal rhetoric or pays less attention to it in the face of a livelihood crisis. Either way, it shows that there is political space for alternative narratives that prioritise inequality and social justice.

All of these factors notwithstanding, the BJP and its allies crossed a simple majority threshold overall, and made gains in some southern states like Kerala. This salience, even if somewhat dimi­nished, shows that any predictions of an impending downfall or change in government are terribly premature. The party remains the most popular in India and will continue to set the terms of politics.

Moving forward, a few things are worth keeping an eye out for to get a sense of the short and medium-term direction of Indian politics. The fir­st is the type of constraints placed on the BJP by its coalition partners, Nitish Kumar and Chan­dra­babu Naidu, who have a decidedly different type of politics than the leading party. This may be visible in relaxing the authoritarian crackdown aga­inst opposition leaders, toning down of an abrasively communal politics, and perhaps diverting greater attention to redistributive policymaking.

The second trend is Modi’s stature within the BJP. This was the first election since 2001 that he was directly involved in which did not result in a simple majority for his party. There is some opposition to Modi-Shah’s dominance within the party, colloquially dubbed the RSS faction, led by Nitin Gadkari. These results may give them a little more space to manoeuvre internally, recalibrating the internal balance of power that had shifted decisively in Modi’s direction.

Finally, some predicted that a heavy mandate for Modi may lead to normalisation of ties with Pakistan, given the latter’s apparent readiness. With that mandate out of the window, the immediate direction of India-Pakistan relations may be determined by India’s domestic political compulsions. Will talking to Pakistan leave the government more exposed to hawks even further to the right? This uncertainty could mean a continuation of the status quo for the near future.

The writer teaches sociology at Lums.
X: @umairjav

Published in Dawn, June 10th, 2024

Fears for India’s Muslims as Modi’s Hindu nationalists win third term

AFP Published June 4, 2024

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures, at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, June 4. — Reuters

For India’s 200-million-plus Muslim minority, a third term for the Hindu-nationalist ruling party brings renewed fears for their future in the constitutionally secular country.

Many Indian Muslims worry Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will relegate them to “second-class citizens” in a Hindu nation.

“During the last 10 years, Muslims were publicly targeted, abused, and humiliated,” said housewife Shabnam Haque, 43, in Jharkhand’s state capital Ranchi.

“Hate against the community is increasing day by day and Muslims are being dehumanised. We fear this trend will increase.”

Demonstrators gather along a road scattered with stones following clashes between supporters and opponents of a new citizenship law at Bhajanpura area of New Delhi on February 24. — AFP/File


But while Modi celebrated victory, the opposition was stronger than pundits had predicted, and the BJP is dependent on allies without an overall majority of its own for the first time in a decade.
‘Very scared’

For some, the reduction of BJP seats offered a glimmer of hope.

“Diverse political representation is crucial for a healthy democracy, and a strong opposition is vital,” said Salman Ahmad Siddiqui.

The 42-year-old banker comes from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh — India’s most populous state and the heartland of the Hindu faith — where the BJP lost its majority.

“The election results are unsurprising, reflecting a growing sense of unease among young people and the middle class,” Siddiqui added.

People react during a clash with police at a protest that turned violent in Mumbai. — Reuters

But Rahman Saifi, 27, a social activist from Uttar Pradesh, said the BJP still had a fresh mandate to drive forward its right-wing policies for its faithful Hindu followers.

“Even with a reduced majority, they may continue to push their agenda of establishing a Hindu Rashtra (country) in India,” Saifi said.

“It’s concerning.”

Hindu activists will likely be emboldened to call for more religious sites to be taken from Muslims.

Those demands have grown louder since Modi inaugurated a grand temple to the deity Ram in January, built on the grounds of a centuries-old mosque in Ayodhya razed by Hindu zealots in 1992.

“Muslims are very scared that […] they will implement anti-Muslim laws and policies in a dictatorial manner and promote hatred in society,” shopkeeper Anwar Siddiqui said in the northern state of Uttarakhand — a BJP heartland.

Far to the south, Muhammad Samshuddeen, 25, a shopkeeper in the tech hub of Bengaluru said that “India is a secular country for all religions,” adding, “We are here to live peacefully too.”

In Indian-occupied Kashmir, the Modi government’s 2019 decision to bring the region under New Delhi’s direct rule — and the subsequent clampdown — has been deeply resented.

The BJP’s third term will mean “further hardship”, 53-year-old Riyaz Ahmed from Srinagar said.

“We have been suffocated,” he said.

“If anyone tries to speak the truth you are uncertain you will remain free.”
‘Divisive agenda’

Modi was accused during campaigning of ramping up rhetoric targeting India’s key religious divide in a bid to rally the Hindu majority to vote.

At his rallies, he referred to Muslims as “infiltrators” and claimed the main opposition Congress party would redistribute the nation’s wealth to Muslims if it won.

“The BJP contested this election on a communal and divisive agenda,” said Anwar Siddiqui, the shopkeeper.

The BJP has promised to introduce in its third term a new common civil code for the country, which minorities fear could encroach on their religious laws.

India’s 1.4 billion people are subject to a common criminal law, but rules on personal matters such as marriage, divorce and inheritance vary based on the customary traditions of different communities and faiths.

A policeman walks past a burning vehicle during a protest in Mumbai. — Reuters

Sayeed Alam, 32, a construction worker in Gaya in eastern Bihar state, feared that “Muslims will be treated as second-class citizens”.

“We are already facing a lot of problems,” Alam said.

“Who knows what will happen next?”

While Modi had hoped to win more seats to push through policies without relying on coalition allies, the BJP still wields enormous power.

“What the community really fears is whether the new government will adopt a more hardline approach towards Muslims,” said Soroor Ahmad, 63, a newspaper columnist based in Bihar’s capital Patna.

But for 27-year-old Mohammad Rehan in Delhi, the BJP’s dented parliamentary strength represented hope for change in the future.

“The BJP cannot stay in power forever,” he said.