The Netherlands

No return of the centre but consolidation of the far-right and weakening of the left

 in Dutch elections

Wednesday 12 November 2025, by SAP / Grenzeloos

Much of the commentary on the results of the Dutch elections of October 29 can be summarised as “the centre is back”. However, the fact that the centrist party D66 won significantly while Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV lost 11 seats is by no means a decisive change in the political pattern of the Netherlands. With 26 out of 150 seats, the PVV now has the same number as seats as D66. And for the Dutch left, there is even less reason to celebrate.


Far right stable and strong

Firstly, the parliamentary far-right has shown itself to be remarkably stable. Around a third of the seats in parliament remain in its hands. The loss of the PVV is offset by the gains of other far-right parties: JA21 and FvD. JA21 supports similar politics as the PVV but in a more technocratic, respectable guise while FvD is arguably to the right of the PVV and openly refers to neo-fascist and racist ideas. Yet another party, the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB in Dutch initials) entered parliament in 2021 as a populist, rightwing party and has since then shifted towards the far-right. All in all, the far-right enlarged its parliamentary presence. The most likely scenario is the formation of a new centre-right cabinet, one that will not solve the social problems that stimulate the growth of the far-right. There is therefore a real risk of even further growth of the far-right.

The centre is shifting to the right

As stable as the far right is, so unstable is the famous political centre. One of the real surprises of the elections was that the losses for the conservative-liberal, pro-business government-party VDD remained limited. But that does not mean that this party is not changing. Under its present leader Dilan Yeşilgöz, the party has clearly shifted further to the right. The VVD lost votes on its “left” from liberals who switched to D66, but this loss was offset on the right by an influx of former PVV voters who apparently agree with the party’s new orientation. As a result, the VVD is becoming less and less ‘the right wing of the centre’ and increasingly the natural ally of the far-right.

And D66 has also shifted to the right. Its leader Rob Jetten is no longer the politician who once embraced the label of climate fanatic and who showed up at a climate justice demonstration.

Instead, D66 has joined in the attacks on the politically powerless group that in the Netherlands is so often blamed for everything that goes wrong: refugees. Jetten’s D66 managed to combine right-wing positions on increasing defence spending, detaining asylum seekers outside Europe and cutting benefits with a vaguely progressive sentiment, thereby winning the elections. Only the appearance is progressive. Incidentally, the result of this shift is only two more seats than in 2021. Here too, the so-called change in pattern is not that substantial at all.
Further erosion of the centre-left

The rise of D66 came largely at the expense of GreenLeft [1] and the Labour Party. Those two parties are engaged in process of merging and participated in the elections as a joint list; GroenLinks-PvdA.

D66 also attracted votes from conservative parties but only to considerably smaller extent. The GroenLinks-PvdA merger project was an attempt to climb out of the slump that GroenLinks and the PvdA found themselves in in 2021. The PvdA had already ended up there in 2017. That year, the PvdA suffered a historic defeat of 29 seats. This was the punishment for the party’s decision, after running a campaign against the VVD, to join a VVD-led cabinet and help implement a harsh austerity agenda. The merger party would rather not be reminded of this.

In order to be an attractive alternative, GroenLinks-PvdA is now trying to present a different message. But at the same time, its political horizon is limited to striving for participation in a coalition government with the right at the soonest possible moment. Choosing to be an opposition-party that builds up counter-power seems to be literally unimaginable for its leadership. But a choice to participate in a centre-right cabinet with D66 and VVD, a real possibility, will probably end badly for the party.



GroenLinks-PvdA leader Frans Timmermans was the embodiment of the dilemma in which the new party found itself. During the elections, he declared that he had “learned” from the experience of participating in the VVD-led government when “unnecessarily harsh” austerity measures were implemented. Timmermans had been himself a minister in this cabinet, the formation of which he had strongly supported. Another of Timmermans’ achievements was his earlier role in blocking cooperation with the left-wing SP. “Never trust anyone who has ever been a communist,” he said of this. In his own way, Timmermans is a sincere politician who is convinced that cooperation with the moderate right in a centre cabinet should be the goal. But that did not help him to be convincing as the leader of a left-wing opposition party. The upshot was that GroenLinks-PvdA was unable to retain voters who were leaning towards D66 and also failed to win new voters.
Further weakening of the entire left

A second surprise was that the elections brought yet another defeat for the SP which fell from five to three seats. For almost two decades now, the party has failed to win additional seats in parliamentary elections. Little remains of the historic record set in 2006, when the party won 25 seats. The party’s lack of self-criticism is discouraging. More often than not, disappointing election results are attributed to factors outside the party. With a new party leader and combative rhetoric, the party seemed to be on the verge of a minor revival but instead, yet another disappointment followed.

Part of the explanation for this failure is the ageing of its shrinking membership and of the party’s social base. It is striking where many former SP voters are going. When people switch parties, they usually move to one that is directly adjacent to their old home. But in the case of the SP, the number of defectors who are turning radically, in this case to the far-right, is remarkably high. The SP’s “economically left-wing but socially conservative” orientation does not deter people from choosing the far-right.

All in all, there is little reason to rejoice about the so-called return of the political centre as an alternative to the far-right. Not only is this centre unstable, its content is also becoming increasingly right-wing. The left, of course, has even less reason to rejoice. The fact that the ecologist Party for the Animals managed to maintain its three seats and that the far right is somewhat more divided than before is cold comfort. These elections also showed once again that outside the major cities, the radical-left party BIJ1 (‘together’ in Dutch) is virtually non-existent. In the capital Amsterdam, BIJ1 managed to score 2.4 per cent but Amsterdam is not the Netherlands. The fact that BIJ1 has a consistent left-wing narrative, opposing militarisation, NATO and racism, is not enough. Its future is unclear. After these elections, the Dutch left is at an all-time low.
A truly left-wing policy

The decline of the Dutch left is, of course, not unique; the right is on the rise globally. It would be a mistake to attribute the election results solely to the role played by specific individuals. It is true that election campaigns are becoming more and more like show business. Many people do not vote on the basis of well-considered political convictions but are guided by “vibes”, as Jetten correctly put it. But that leaves open the question of why certain political movements succeed in appealing to such feelings. Why does anger so often take the form of racism and support for the far-right, and why is a centre-right party like D66 able to present itself as a source of hope and optimism?

A Labour Party strategist attributed their loss to “poor communication”; the party has a good story to tell but fails to convey it convincingly because it still has “too much respect for intelligence”. More crude demagoguery and empty promises should therefore compensate for the lack of strategy. Perhaps that can help to win seats, but not to pursue left-wing policies.

At present, there simply is no audience in the Netherlands large enough to make truly left-wing policies possible, policies that break with neoliberalism, that prioritise the interests of the vast majority on issues such as the housing shortage and healthcare, and that take serious measures to combat the climate crisis. For this to happen, not only must enough people desire such policies, they must also be convinced that they are possible. Until they are, people will opt for the moderate right as an alternative to the far-right. Or they will join the large group of non-voters.

Focus groups and communication strategies cannot solve this fundamental problem. Building a base for such policies will be a long-term endeavour, going against the tide. It requires organising people and addressing their daily concerns and linking that to a vision that does not stop at the next elections. It requires struggle, debate and conviction. It requires strong social movements and a political organisation that gives expression to them. The sooner we face this with sober senses and act, the better.

6 November 2025

First published on Grenzeloos.

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Footnotes


[1] GroenLinks (GreenLeft) was formed in 1990 from a merger of the Communist Party (CPN), the Pacifist Socialist Party (PSP), the Political Party Radicals (PPR), and the Evangelical People’s Party (EVP).

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SAP / Grenzeloos
Socialist Alternative Politics (SAP) (formerly the Dutch Socialist Workers Party) is the section of the Fourth International in the Netherlands. Grenzeloos is the name of their publication.


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