How a Snow Deficit in the Alps Will Put Europe’s Energy System Under Pressure
- Europe’s gas storage levels have fallen sharply this winter, with stocks projected to drop to around 26% by the end of March.
- Below-average snowfall in the Alps could curb hydropower generation in Austria and Italy, increasing gas-fired power demand.
- Record LNG imports, led by the United States and Qatar, are expected to help Europe rebuild storage despite rising demand and the phase-out of Russian gas.
Europe’s gas demand could rise even higher at the end of this winter, making it even more challenging to refill storage that has been depleting at the fastest pace in years.
So far into 2026, snowfall and snow coverage in the Alps, which feed a large part of the hydropower generation in Austria and northern Italy, have been well below average, Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire notes.
With potentially lower hydropower generation, if snowfall continues to be scarce, gas consumption in the power sector could rise to make up for the gap, Maguire argues.
Hydropower Decline?
Reduced hydropower generation could hit Austria and Italy, where this electricity source makes up a large part of the mix.
In Austria, hydropower plants account for more than 60% of electricity output. If we add to this wind, biomass, and solar, renewable power generation in Austria makes up more than three-quarters of the country’s total electricity production. Austria’s last coal-fired power plant was shut in 2020.
In Italy, hydropower accounts for 12% of total power generation, which is still being led by gas-fired power plants.
So far in 2026, gas power generation has jumped by 24% in Italy and 17% in Austria, per data from LSEG cited by Reuters’ Maguire.
Much lower than average snow coverage – if it persists – could complicate Europe’s efforts to refill gas storage sites this summer.
This winter, gas storage sites in Europe are draining at the fastest pace in five years, amid below-average winter temperatures that are driving heating and power demand higher. The faster rate of depletion suggests stocks would end this winter at their lowest level since 2022.
EU gas storage sites were estimated to be just 35% full as of February 10, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Analysts forecast that EU gas storage would be only about 26% full by the end of March, when the winter season officially ends.
EU Set for Record Gas Demand
End-of-winter supply in storage at the lowest in four years means that Europe will need very high imports in the shoulder seasons and the summer to replenish the stocks to adequate levels of 80-90% full storage by November 2026, as per the EU regulations.
U.S. LNG exports are set for a rebound following the weather-related disruptions during the winter storm Fern at the end of January.
Moreover, global LNG supply is expected to remain abundant and even tilt into excess later this year as new export projects in the top exporters, the United States and Qatar, come on stream.
Thankfully for Europe, this supply wave is expected to continue until at least 2029 as the U.S. and Qatar boost export capacities.
Europe is expected to import a record-high volume of LNG this year as stronger demand for replenishing storage sites, the phase-out of Russian supply, and continued pipeline exports to Ukraine will drive increased demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Gas Market Report Q1 2026 last month.
After setting a record in 2025, European LNG imports are poised to reach a new all-time high of over 185 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026, the agency noted.
Europe’s LNG imports hit a record-high of more than 175 bcm in 2025, surging by 30%, or by 40 bcm, from 2024, the report found. Key factors in the record imports were stronger domestic demand, lower piped gas imports, and higher storage injections in April-October.
As a result of the jump in LNG imports, the share of LNG in Europe’s primary natural gas supply surged from 30% in 2024 to 38% in 2025, the IEA noted.
Most of the incremental LNG supply to Europe came from the United States, which boosted deliveries to Europe by 60% year over year.
This year, the phase-out of Russian gas, which the EU member states agreed on in December, will create an additional market for non-Russian LNG suppliers to the EU, the agency said.
LNG Supply Growth to Help Europe’s Storage Refill
In the quarterly report, the IEA also pointed out that a surge in global LNG supply is expected to play a key role in rebalancing global gas markets in 2026, leading to stronger demand growth after a slowdown last year.
The jump in supply, mostly from North America, is expected to reduce market pressures at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the IEA said.
Global LNG supply growth is set to accelerate in 2026 to more than 7%, its fastest pace since 2019, the agency said, echoing expectations from other forecasters.
The constant growth of solar and wind power generation in Europe could offset some gas demand in the power sector. But if hydropower output in central and southern Europe falters due to a lack of snow, the acceleration of LNG supply growth would be welcome news for the EU’s efforts to refill gas storage sites after the end of this winter.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Europe's Clean Energy Push Creates New Geopolitical Risks
- Europe's decades-long dependence on Russian energy is being replaced by new, compounding threats to sovereignty from the United States' energy dominance and China's technological monopoly.
- The rapid expansion of renewable resources and increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the U.S. have created new risks, including strain on power grids and potential systemic risk from the U.S. using energy for leverage.
- To pursue energy independence, European leaders are intensifying the development of large-scale offshore wind projects in the North Sea to create a multi-nation connected grid.
Europe is still suffering from the consequences of its decadeslong dependence on Russian energy imports. But as the bloc continues to wean itself off of Russian oil and gas, Europe is facing new and compounding energy dependence threats from the United States and China. European policymakers are in a tough spot, literally and figuratively sandwiched between a massive and high-stakes battle for global energy supremacy.
When Russia illegally invaded Ukraine in February of 2022, Europe as a whole depended on the Russian producers for 40 percent of its natural gas. Setting and following sanctions on Russian energy and finding more reliable and responsible supply chains over the last four years has not been easy. Only last week, European leaders finally agreed to end imports of Russian gas to the bloc – but that total ban still won’t take effect until next year.
In the wake of these overnight embargoes on Russian energy, Europe has scrambled to intensify buildout of renewable resources. But this rapid expansion has led to major hiccups in the continent’s energy security, placing major strain on power grids and causing extreme volatility in electricity prices. To fill these gaps and shore up energy security over the past few years, Europe has eagerly increased its imports of liquefied natural gas from the United States. But now that decision, too, is seeming increasingly risky for European sovereignty and resilience.
“Europe’s energy security is being redrawn by shifting global power plays – from America’s energy dominance to China’s technological monopoly,” the German Council on Foreign Relations warned in a memo published earlier this week. “Once considered tools of cooperation, energy resources and technologies are again being used for leverage.”
In general, global geopolitics are trending toward an era of protectionism and nationalist policy, with potentially disastrous results for net energy importers. And Europe, which has clung to a free-trade ethos, is at risk of being caught in the crossfire between the United States and China as the world’s two biggest economies pull in opposite directions – one toward being the world’s first electrostate and the other toward petro-dominance. And both want to ensure that the entire world follows suit.
While the United States was once considered a safe lifeline away from the tyrannical and unstable energy powers of Russia and China, experts contend that those dynamics are rapidly changing. The Council expresses genuine concern that the United States will now do anything to ensure its own energy dominance – including but not limited to the aggressive annexation of Greenland – without a second thought for its European alliances. But the alternative, cozying up to China, isn’t sounding so great either.
As a result, the Council contends that “Germany should begin to consider US energy dominance, alongside Russian fossil statecraft and Chinese technological consolidation, as a potential systemic risk.”
Trump’s aggression toward Greenland, in particular, has been a major pivot point for European leadership, pushing the continent to pursue energy independence with renewed vigor. Accordingly, nine countries with stakes in the North Sea have doubled down on the development of large-scale offshore wind projects that would include the development of a grid connected to multiple European nations.
While this new agreement is focused on strengthening Europe’s energy independence, leaders say that it doesn’t signal a desire to end trade relations with the United States. EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen has said: “We are not against trading with the US — on the contrary. But we are of course aware — and this goes for all countries, not only the US — that we are not aiming at replacing one dependency with a new dependency. We want to grow our own energy and our strategy in the future is to become free of gas.”
In the meantime, Europe is also keen to develop more diverse suppliers and “mutually beneficial energy partnerships with like-minded partners eager to avoid asymmetrical and transactional dependencies,” according to the German Council on Foreign Relations.
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com
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