Veils A Red Herring

Lord Kitchner's Own asks; Where's the by-election Veil story???

The Montreal Gazzette put this in the end of an article on the by-election. Though I had seen another CP item on it last night.

A handful of voters in Saint-Hyacinthe and at least one in Roberval voted with veils or scarves covering their faces to protest against a decision by Elections Canada to allow the practice, provided the voters furnished two pieces of identification or were vouched for by a registered voter from the constituency.

The Star likewise;

Controversy in the lead-up to the vote over a decision by Elections Canada to allow veiled women to vote without showing their faces, which all political parties argued was an unreasonable measure to accommodate Muslim women, met with muted protest. Local news reports said half a dozen Quebecers, including one man, showed up to vote with their faces covered.

In a interview with the McQill Daily published the day before the by-election Jack Layton said;

There has been no request from veiled women to stay veiled when they vote, let’s be extremely clear about that. I’ve been reminded by my Muslim friends of this: they de-veil.... They de-veil for their driver’s license, their health card, for purposes related to civil society – which is of course what voting is all about. Given that there was absolutely no request for permission to do this, we feel that the Chief Electoral Officer did not make the best decision.

And he was right as one of the early stories on this issue revealed, but was way way down at the bottom of the CP story.

Wahida Valiante, national vice-president of the Canadian Islamic Congress, said she was surprised by the debate because it hasn't come up among Muslims in her Waterloo, Ont.-based organization.

"It just came from nowhere," she said.

"I'm really confused as to who was consulted, what happened."

She said she didn't believe the Muslim community was involved.

Actually no one requested the clarification it was provided by Elections Canada as part of other clarifications arising from the new voting act past by parliament.

July 26, 2007
New Canada Elections Act Provisions Now in Effect

July 30, 2007
Electors MUST Prove Their Identity and Residential Address When They Vote!

August 30, 2007
Reminder Card and Details of New Voter Identification Rules Will Be Delivered to All Electors

September 5, 2007
Electors MUST Prove Their Identity and Residential Address When They Vote!

September 6, 2007
Elections Canada Reiterates the Statutory Requirements Regarding the Identification of Electors Wearing Face Coverings

IMPORTANT!

Changes have been made to the Canada Elections Act.

All electors MUST prove their identity and residential address when they vote. For more detailed information on voter identification, visit www.elections.ca.

There was no veil controversy it was all a bit o' political slight of hand. Harper using a bit of Mulroney blarney politics.

On Monday, speaking in Canberra, Australia, Prime Minister Stephen Harper blasted the agency for the second day. He said Elections Canada has defied Bill C-31, which was passed by Parliament in June, by allowing Muslim women to wear veils and burkas while voting.

He said it's not the first time the agency has gone against the will of the elected Parliament.

"I'm obviously very disappointed with this decision. Parliament has just passed a law and its intention is very clear -- the intention is to have photographic identification of voters. I'm disappointed with Elections Canada and I don't think it's the only case where Elections Canada is giving a ruling on the laws they wish they had, rather than the laws that are actually on the books."

The Harper Index tells us why this was a big red herring used to veil the real issue the Conservatives have with Elections Canada.

The battle for rural Quebec may have been manifested in the veil controversy as well. "Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, facing elections as early as this year, is taking a stand against veiled Muslim voters, helping him tap into a growing backlash against immigrants," write Bloomberg News reporters Theophilos Argitis and Alexandre Deslongchamps.

"The feeling on this issue was so powerful no party was willing to oppose the Conservatives on this," said one Parliament Hill staffer, who asked not to be named. The Bloc was quickest to join the Conservatives in opposing veils at the polling booth, but soon the NDP and Liberals agreed as well. "No one was going to hand this issue to them."

At the same time, veils may have given Harper an opportune means of distraction. Daniel Tencer wrote in the online edition of Maissoneuve that the controversy successfully took attention from investigation into Conservative election spending, as well as exacting vengeance upon chief electoral officer Marc Mayrand for raising the issue.

Tencer writes: "It has everything to do with Elections Canada's assertion that the Conservatives went $1.2 million over the legal spending limit in the last election. The Globe describes today how defensive behaviour by some Conservative MPs after the January, 2006, election tipped them off to the practice of 'in-and-out' transactions, in which the federal Conservative organization sent money to local candidates and then siphoned it right back to the federal campaign, thus avoiding federal spending limits. Several weeks ago it emerged that Harper's Conservatives are now involved in a lawsuit against Mayrand, the same person Harper attacked over veiled voting, regarding Mayrand's decision not to recognize the 'in-and-out' spending as legitimate. At a House of Commons committee hearing yesterday into the practice, the Ottawa Citizen reports, Conservative MPs deflected allegations of corruption by challenging the opposition parties to open their campaign spending books for the past decade."

SEE:

Black Bloc Can Vote

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Denis Lebel Nationalist

As newly elected Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean Conservative MP Denis Lebel told CPAC last night "I am a nationalist and Mr. Harper knows that." Well that says it all. Harper played the Mulroney nationalist card and has won over voters from the BQ as well as the ADQ.

In fact this can also be seen in Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot which went neck and neck all night between the BQ and the Conservatives. While the NDP came in third there. In playing the nationalist card Harper bought himself a round of support in rural Quebec. It is the nationalists in rural Quebec who voted Conservative as they do BQ.


The NDP on the other hand are now a viable left wing alternative to the BQ in Quebec. Their position on the War and the Environment resonated with voters in Outremont and will in other urban Quebec ridings come the general election. Mulcair's acceptance speech last night emphasized that he was the Peace Candidate first and then the Environmental Candidate. The war will be as big an issue as the environment come the general election and that bodes well for the NDP.

"Today, Quebec has chosen a new direction," NDP Leader Jack Layton told supporters in Outremont, and praised them for "making history and changing the direction of politics in Quebec and across Canada. For the future we are hoping that what people see here now about the NDP is something that we are going to be able to take to the ballot box, not only in the election here in Quebec but the rest of Canada as well, as people realize we are a national party with representation everywhere," he said.

The Liberals lost last night, in all three by-elections and thus they can no longer claim the mantle of the Natural Governing Party. They can no longer take Quebec for granted and will be forced to retreat to Ontario as their base. They are no more important in Quebec now than the NDP and anyone who says they are a player needs only look at their standing in Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe after last night. Those are not big numbers.

In a Liberal nightmare scenario-turned-reality, the party lost a traditional Montreal fortress and was reduced to single-digit support in two other Quebec ridings. A party that owned the province through much of Canada's history has now fallen below what was supposed to be the nadir of the post-sponsorship election last year.

Francophones deserted the party in all three ridings on Monday. Their last remaining stranglehold on multi-ethnic, federalist pockets of Montreal was slackened.

And in Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean the Liberal candidate was high profile, a businesswoman who was head of the Chamber of Commerce, while the NDP ran a parachute part time candidate. She certainly lost big for the Liberals.

With high profile candidates the NDP can make a break through in the next election in Quebec while the Liberals will need to rebuild. Something they have failed to do for the past year. Petulant over Dion's victory, the Quebec Liberals abandoned the party to work for Charest and his victory should have been telling about the party's loss of power in Quebec. And last night was the result of their petulance.

The finger-pointing began before the ballot boxes even closed.

Some said it was incompetence on the part of Liberal officials. Others said it was the result of leadership rivals sabotaging the Liberal campaign.

Less than a year after Liberal Leader Stephane Dion moved to reunite his party after a winning a bloody leadership race, that fragile unity was in danger last night and questions swirled about his leadership ability after his party was shut out in three byelections — including the traditionally Liberal bastion of Outremont.

Liberal insiders recount a litany of organizational problems with the Outremont campaign, including an apparent power struggle between members of Dion’s entourage and personnel in the Quebec wing’s headquarters. For example, while some in the Quebec wing tried to keep Dion’s appearances in Quebec to a minimum, personnel in Dion’s office insisted on him making trips to his home province to campaign.

Fuelling the discontent even more was an article published over the weekend in which unnamed Liberal supporters of Dion and Michael Ignatieff traded barbs over whether the poor campaign was the result of incompetence, or of sabotage by Ignatieff supporters trying to undermine Dion’s leadership.

And so while the Liberals regroup some to lick their wounds and others to sharpening their knives. Good thing then that newly elected Saint- Hyacinthe MP Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac is not a Liberal.

Born in Vietnam, Thai Thi Lac was adopted by Quebecois parents and raised from the age of two on a local farm. She speaks French and reminded voters of her local roots by telling them during the campaign that, unlike the other candidates, she knows how to castrate a pig.

SEE:

Sept. 11 for Dion

Politics is Local

Quebec By-elections

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Sept. 11 for Dion

Dion in Outremont conceding Liberal defeat in all three Quebec by-elections, as seen on CPAC.

"When a general election comes we will remember this evening
of Sept 11 err Sept 17"

Uh oh Freudian slip.


And thanks to Far and Wide for setting up a live blog in on the by-election.

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Politics is Local

Quebec By-elections

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Politics is Local

If the Conservatives win the byelection in Roberval-Lac-St-Jean today it will be because this former BQ stronghold has seen a neighboring riding get largese from their Conservative MP Jean Blackburn, and because the Conservative candidate is a former Mayor who is personally popular as this CPAC report shows. Harpers coat tails will not count as much as local politics.

And while all politics is local, it is also interesting that in CPAC's coverage of all three by-elections the top national issue discussed was Afghanistan.

Quebec By-elections

Carole-Anne Guay looks at the by-election taking place on September 17, 2007 in the Quebec riding of Roberval-Lac-St-Jean.

SEE:

Quebec By-elections

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Quebec By-elections

As fellow blogger Gone Green In Alberta points out CTV has a media bias in its Quebec By-election polls when it comes to the Green Party.

The Greens are ahead of the Conservatives in Outremont. But you wouldn't know it from the way it is posted.

The Greens are ahead of the Liberals too, in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, again you wouldn't know it from how the poll is set up.

And the only poll that is unaffected is that of Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, where they are neck and neck with the NDP.

And Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean is the only riding the NDP is not ahead of the Liberals.

It is not just NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair who is popular in Outremont, and Quebec in general, it is also Jack Layton who has scored well in polling of Quebecers.

In Quebec, support for Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe now sits at 17 percent (up 1 point), compared with 29 percent for Stephen Harper (down 3 points), 18 percent for Jack Layton (up 3 points) and 10 percent for Stéphane Dion (down 2 points).



Leader Approval. There have been some shifts in the approval ratings of the party leaders over the past three months. The proportion of Canadians approving of the job being done by Stephen Harper has fallen below the 50-percent mark for the first time since he became prime minister and now stands at 48 percent (down 6 points from March). Approval of Stéphane Dion has declined once again to 38 percent (down 2 points) and the proportion expressing disapproval of him has risen to 48 percent (up 5 points). Jack Layton has the highest approval rating of any of the party leaders at 56 percent (up 2 points), and a similar share of voters in Quebec approve of the job being done by Gilles Duceppe (53%, down 3 points). Approval of Elizabeth May has dropped three points to 42 percent.

Which leaves Dion as the dud. And it doesn't help when the dud chooses his doppelgänger to run. But then Dion has been more of a similcarum of a leader than a real leader.

The biggest loser of all, if Mulcair pulls it off, would be Liberal leader Stéphane Dion. The loss would be a devastating blow to his already shaky leadership.

"If his party underperforms, Dion -- as an untested leader -- will take the biggest hit," wrote Toronto Star columnist Chantal Hebert on Friday.

"By all indications, Dion's candidates in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot and Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean are not even in contention for second place."

The degree of pressure on a leader also depends to a large extent on how closely the party's candidate in a by-election is identified with the leader.

This plays heavily in Outremont because Coulon was handpicked by Dion, who also blocked Justin Trudeau from the nomination, though some Liberals maintained Trudeau would have been the party's best hope in the riding, said Antonia Maioni, director of McGill University's Institute for the Study of Canada.

"Dion's claim was that he'd win back Quebec, and this is what potential Liberal voters are going to look at, and more so people in the party. If he fails to capture the riding, one of the safest Liberal seats in the province, it's not going to play well outside Quebec."

"Coulon is sort of Stéphane Dion's alter ego," said Antonia Maioni, a political scientist at Montreal's McGill University. "He's like Stéphane. An academic, quite reserved, very well spoken. And so in many ways, this is not only a by-election, but it's also a referendum on Stéphane Dion because he's chosen someone who resembles him the most."

SEE:

Rudderless Liberals

Layton and May Winners

Ms. Joe Clark

Waiting For Dion

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Stelmach Tanks

After the blow out in Calgary Elbow the Stelmach government tries to make amends by appointing three more Calgarians, and one Edmonton MLA who is Ukrainian and a popular a former Liberal, to cabinet.


To add insult to injury they are not even real cabinet ministers, they are mere 'associates'. You know like WalMart Associates.

Unfortunately it is too little too late.

Honeymoon Officially Over For Stelmach Government

CALGARY/AB--(Marketwire - June 23, 2007) - A new Ipsos Reid poll finds a substantial decline in support for the Ed Stelmach-led Progressive Conservatives. The Progressive Conservatives currently have the backing of 47% of Alberta's decided voters, down 12 points from 59% just two months ago (April). This returns the Progressive Conservatives to the same level of voter support they achieved in the 2004 Alberta provincial election. In fact, all four major parties have returned to exactly where they stood in the last election. Among decided voters, 29% say they would vote Liberal, 10% would vote New Democrat and 9% would vote for the Alberta Alliance Party.

A look at voter support by region produces some telling results for the Progressive Conservatives. In Calgary, Stelmach's party has the support of 42% of decided voters. This is a decline of 8-points from the 50% support the Progressive Conservatives achieved in the last election. In contrast, the Progressive Conservatives are up 12 points in the Edmonton CMA (47% today vs. 35% in election) and up 2-points in the rest of Alberta (53% today vs. 51% in election).

SEE

• Stelmach Blames Eastern Bums
• Terrror In Tory Town
• Calgary Elbow Goes Liberal
• It's A Sweep
• Alberta Election Results
• Where's The NDP?
• Election Day In Alberta

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Drumheller Bell Weather

As I wrote here urbanization and the transformation of rural cities into suburban metropolis vs. the rural roots of the P.C.'s was exposed in the bell weather by-election Tuesday.

Drumheller voted solidly Liberal despite the rest of the rural riding voting Conservative.

The Conservatives comfortably held onto Drumheller-Stettler, the rural former riding of Shirley McClellan, who retired after having served in senior cabinet jobs like finance minister and deputy premier. However, the Liberals finished second there. In 2004, they didn't bother running a candidate against McClellan.

the Liberals winning Drumheller's city vote even as it lost the overall seat, clearly signals "that the Klein era is over," Taft said.

The Stelmach government is relying upon their rural base to hold up their tired old party. In fact they even went as far as to sic their California Golden Boy Republican rabid right whingnut Ted Morton on the urban complainers.

Sustainable Resource Development Minister Ted Morton spoke to municipal leaders in Banff -- an address the mayor says included a deliberate slight at Calgary.

According to Morton's speaking notes, he said: "Calgary by itself is a good, but not a great, city. What makes Calgary a great city -- the best in Canada as far as I'm concerned -- is what surrounds it. The working farms and ranches, the Foothills, mountains and rivers."

While there was no tape of the speech, Morton provided a copy of his speaking notes

With no apology or remonstration from Stelmach, Morton supplied his notes to the media day's before the by-election. This from a government with a fetish for secrecy.

Morton like Stelmach relied upon the rural vote for his run for Party Leader. Morton's base came from the south where a strong American/Republican tradition exist's in the Mormon population and among other big ranchers and farmers who are evangelical Christians.

With a boom in the province, rapid development of bedroom communities, urban sprawl in Fort McMurray, and the million person populations in Edmonton and Calgary spill over into rural communities making them the new suburbs.

Thus the fall of Calgary Elbow, Ralph's old seat, to the new Alberta Voter.

"It's not the byelection I would put as much stock into. It's the trend line," said Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Calgary's Mount Royal College. "There's been a series of little steps, all going down."

After losing three Calgary ridings to the Liberals in 2004's election, Tory fortunes in Calgary took a turn for the worse in December's leadership race. The city's pick, former treasurer Jim Dinning, sewed up every riding in town but lost the race to Ed Stelmach, a farmer from up north and the last choice of Calgary voters. And according to some rural Stelmach supporters - who gloated afterward that they had properly stuck a thumb in the eye of the big city - that was exactly the point.

Then came Mr. Stelmach's Cabinet choices - dominantly rural, with just three Calgarians of 18 (even though the city represents a third of the province's population).

Stelmach and Morton and their rural PC base see this as a threat to their vision of "Conservative" Alberta. That rural base was originally Social Credit, and transfered its loyalty to the PC's after the Lougheed era. Ralph Kleins victory as Leader was the result of the dissident rural Social Credit base voting PC and Calgary voting PC merging in a campaign opposing the candidate, Nancy Betkowski, from Edmonton.

The old riding of Buffalo-Stettler was also the exiled home of former Premier Don Getty when he lost his Edmonton Whitemud riding to Liberal Percy Wickman. Having the Premier as your MLA meant as usual lots of government largess.

And as a result Stettler has become another urbanized suburb, complete with a Burger Baron and nice paved highways. The Burger Baron phenomena in Northern Alberta, reflects the integration of immigrants, in this case the chain is owned by Lebanese Canadians,into Alberta's white Christian rural culture.

Stettler remains a solidly Tory stronghold, as it was once a Socred stronghold. But it also suffered a low voter turn out which does not show the real intention of voters.

But the sea change in Drumheller shows that come the next provincial election, the split in the province will be between the urban centres and the rural hinterland.

And like the regime of Harry Strom, the last time that scenario was played out the Socreds went down to defeat in 1971 to the Lougheed PC's.

In 1968, Earnest Manning stepped down as leader of the Social Credit party after winning a massive majority on a very small popular vote, and he was replaced as leader and premiere by Strom in that same year. The following year, in 1969, the seat Manning had held for decades, Calgary Strathcona, fell to Progressive Conservative William Yurko.

While Ralph Klein’s history is quite different from Manning, the progress of events since he stepped down as leader is eerily familiar. In 2004, Klein won a large majority on a fairly shaky popular vote (under 50% when he’d won nearly 70% in the 2001 election). He then announced his retirement, and by the end of 2006, had stepped down in favour of his replacement, Ed Stelmach. The following year (that would be 2007, this year), Klein’s old seat in Calgary-Elbow fell to Liberal representative Craig Cheffins (in the by-election this past Tuesday).

Albertans almost defeated the lame duck PC's in 1993, Ralph's first term as premier was a race between him and Laurence Decore of the Liberals. Hindered by the lame duck premiership of Don Getty, the party was soundly thrashed at the polls, but still won. Like the defeat of the Socreds before them, they saw the 1993 election as a warning.

Today we have another lame duck premier, and one whose charisma and leadership screams Harry Strom. Lucky for him the Liberals also suffer from the same lame duck leadership.

SEE

• Stelmach Blames Eastern Bums
• Terrror In Tory Town
• Calgary Elbow Goes Liberal
• It's A Sweep
• Alberta Election Results
• Where's The NDP?
• Election Day In Alberta

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Stelmach Blames Eastern Bums

For the loss of Calgary Elbow, the riding which was home to Ralph Klein and held by the Tories for 36 years. No really. It's not his fault. Its all dem Eastern Bums and creeps that ruined it for the Tories. You remember them they are the folks that Ralph his-self denounced back in the eighties. Well they are back.

Stelmach says the Liberals won the Calgary-Elbow seat in a byelection Tuesday because the city's voters are grumpy over growth pressures caused by a huge influx of new residents. The premier says it's unfortunate that 36,000 people have moved into Alberta over the last five months, driving up rents and creating a greater need for new roads, schools and health facilities.

Right-o, blame 'immigrants' to Alberta for the problems, even if they are fellow internally migrating Canadians from the East. At the same time claiming to need foreign workers to make up for the labour shortages in the province. But at least they are temporary you don't need to feed and house slave labour, no wait you do.

Stelmach was in cabinet before he was Premier at like the rest of the tired Tories he refuses to take responsibility for losing the byelection or the lack of planning for the boom,or the choking off of infrastructure funding for a decade. And he even has the temerity to blame them for the lack of apartments and rent gouging by Real Estate Income Trusts (REIT).

Ed sounds just like good old Ralph and a lot like Jacques Parizeau after he lost the Referendum.

Calgary Elbow was a referendum on Stelmach and his stay the course gang. He lost a solid blue seat that was held by his predecessor.

But the loss of Calgary-Elbow should concern the premier, said University of Calgary political scientist David Taras.

"This was the premier's riding - this is a riding that was rock solid, and now it's fallen," he said.

"The argument is, if Elbow can fall, what Tory seat is safe in Calgary?"

It's the first time the Liberals have ever had four seats in Calgary. The Tories hold the remaining 19.

"What a slap in the face for the Conservatives," said Keith Brownsey, who teaches political science at Calgary's Mount Royal College. "It's been Conservative since its inception. It should've been a cakewalk."

Tuesday's result in Calgary appeared to echo recent polls suggesting that Tory efforts to handle Alberta's hyper-inflated economy have not found favour.

A Leger Marketing poll of more than 900 Albertans in late May suggested support for the Tories has slipped well under 50 per cent and in Calgary has dropped 27 points to 40 per cent. Those findings mirrored the results of a Cameron Strategy poll of more than 900 Albertans over roughly the same period.

Even King Ralph was almost struck speechless; "I never lost an election," said Klein, winner of three municipal races in his days as Calgary mayor and four straight majority romps as premier.

Ouch.


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Premier Taft?

Picture this; Kevin Taft,



Alberta's Next Premier

Werner doesn't think so, and it appears neither do some other Liberals now that they see their chance at grabbing the brass ring. Though with leadership like his perhaps it is time for a change.

"Have (Calgary voters) stampeded to the Alberta Liberals? "No, they haven't, but a change is beginning to open up," said Taft.

And a careful read of voting patterns show that long-time Tories haven't switched wholesale to the Alberta Liberals (who suffer their own growing rump of doubters in the abilities of leader Kevin Taft) as much as they have simply stayed home.

Rod Love, former chief of staff to Klein and once nicknamed "Ralph's brain," offered some other context.

"Lest your viewers think the Liberals are about to sweep the province, the Liberal vote in Calgary Elbow went down by 100 votes," he told MDL. "The story is the Conservative vote went down 3,000 votes. It's a good thing they didn't go across the street, as we say, or Mr. Taft would have been a much happier guy."

The Tories now hold 61 of the legislature's 83 seats. The Liberals are second with 16. The NDP have four and the Alliance had one. There is one Independent.

Love noted the Liberals won 32 seats to the Tories' 51 in the 1993 provincial election, Klein's first as leader. "To us, that was an earthquake, and we won."

That was the Liberals under former Redmonton Mayor Laurence Decore and Taft ain't no Decore.

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Terrror In Tory Town

The Party of Calgary is kaput. As the by-election in Ralph Kleins riding of Calgary Elbow shows.

said one senior Tory strategist. "Here's the [former] premier's riding and nobody wanted to run."

So instead their candidate ran as a Liberal.

And once on the hustings, things were evidently hostile enough that local reporters observed Mr. Heninger on one doorstep remarking that he would personally like to "choke" Mr. Stelmach for crimes against Calgary.

With even their own candidate unable to defend the government record, several Tories admitted ahead of the byelection that the bigger surprise would be if Mr. Heninger somehow managed to prevail.

Why vote for a disgruntled Tory when you can vote for a real Liberal.

Having dominated the province under King Ralph, the Party of Calgary saw a political sea change with the loss of the leadership race by Jim Dinning, the 'liberal' Calgary candidate.

Now the next election portends a Liberal sweep in Calgary and an Opposition sweep in Edmonton between them and the NDP.

Leaving the PC's with the rural ridings. Just like what happened to Harry Strom.




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This Is What Alberta Democracy Looks Like

Well not really. More like the limitations of representative parliamentary government. In the Drumheller-Stettler by-election 1/3 of eligible voters cast their vote. The riding has 21, 790 voters and only 7144 voted. Of these 4,180 voted PC.

1/4 of voters decided on keeping the status quo. While it is a sweep, its one with a threadbare broken down broom. With this level of voter apathy, a general election could present a whole new picture.

What is more interesting is how the opposition vote breaks down.

The opposition to the PC's came from the Social Credit party and the Liberals. The Liberals and Socreds were tied most the of night until the Liberals broke away and got 14% to the Socreds 12%.

The Independent candidate an Alberta Separatist got 7% of the vote beating out the Alberta Alliance which got 5%, the Green Party which got 3% while the NDP got 1%.

Taken together the Separatist and the Alliance split the Socred vote.

But contrary to the wet dreams of some of the right a unified right wing of the Alliance, Separatists and Socreds would still not come close to defeating the PC's.

In the sprawling riding of Drumheller-Stettler, east of Calgary, Jack Hayden successfully raised the Tory standard once again in a region his party has won by lopsided margins ever since it was wrested from the Social Credit party in 1979.

Jack Hayden, a local councillor and a former rural campaign lieutenant for Premier Ed Stelmach, handily defeated a field of challengers to take the seat held by former deputy premier Shirley McClellan.

Ms. McClellan resigned in January after holding the riding for two decades.

What they would do is offer vote splitting on the right giving the Liberals a better opening come the next election.


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Calgary Elbow Goes Liberal

Whew this is a horse race. But the Liberals are poised to take Ralph Kleins old riding of Calgary Elbow a long time safe PC seat.

They have been in the lead since the polls started coming in. With 69/77 polls in we are predicting that the Liberals have a winning lead at 44%. Through out they have been ahead of the PC's 43% to 38%.

Like King Ralph's victories this Liberal victory is won by a few hundred votes.

The vote difference between the Alberta Alliance 5% and the Social Credit Party 2% shows vote splitting on the right. Combined they would have had 7% of the vote, while the Green Party got 6%. The NDP a measly 4%. The Independent got 1%. All told this opposition to the Tories was worth 18% of the popular vote. Another good reason for PR.

The impact of the SC, AA and Green vote on the Conservatives have been enough to allow the Liberals to squeak past.


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