New research casts doubt over cryptocurrencies’ ‘safe haven’ properties

Claims cryptocurrencies are immune to economic risks should be taken with caution

BANGOR UNIVERSITY

New research published in the International Review of Financial Analysis suggests that claims cryptocurrencies are immune to economic risks should be taken with caution.

Research carried out by a team of international academics looked at how connected cryptocurrency prices are to factors such as the stock market and oil volatility, as well as how turbulent periods such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war affected cryptocurrency behaviour.

The research was carried out by academics from Bangor Business School, Wales, Poznań University of Economics and Business, Poland, the Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland and Montpellier University, France.

Dr Danial Hemmings of Bangor Business School said, “By using various indices covering diverse risk areas, from geopolitics and economic uncertainty to Crude Oil and Gold Volatility indices and using a wide portfolio of cryptocurrencies, we sought to compare the significance and size of various risk transmissions between the pricing of crypto assets and the real economy.

“One of the principal promises of crypto assets has been their ability to hedge risks, and what we found is that while the pricing of cryptocurrencies remains largely disconnected from economic risks, in terms of volatility the ripple effect on cryptocurrencies did intensify during turbulent periods such as the COVID-19 outbreak or the Ukraine war.”

These findings are significant as they emphasise the nuance in the hedge-potential of crypto assets.

“This should have implications for the diversification strategies of investors, as well as inform the debate around the regulation of crypto,” explains Dr Hemmings. “Policymakers and investors should be aware that while crypto investments appear to serve as a good hedging instrument during normal economic conditions, their hedging ability in relation to certain risk factors is distorted or weakened in periods of economic turbulence, as evidenced during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

The full paper is available in the International Review of Financial Analysis 94 (2024).

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JOURNAL

International Review of Financial Analysis

DOI

10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103330 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

New research casts doubt over cryptocurrencies’ ‘safe haven’ properties

HEATWAVE 

Maryland couple dies on Hajj pilgrimage


Alhaji Alieu Dausy (L) and Haja Isatu Wurie died due to extreme heat while on a pilgrimage to Mecca. Photo courtesy of Senate Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks/X

June 24 (UPI) -- A Maryland couple was among the more than 1,300 Hajj pilgrims killed by the heatwave in Saudi Arabia.

U.S. Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks announced Sunday on X that Alhaji Alieu Dausy and Haja Isatu Wurie had died during the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca due to the severe heat.

She said in a statement that the pair were "beloved members of #TeamAlsoBrooks."

"Haja Isatu Wurie was an incredibly active member of our community," Alsobrooks, a Democrat, said.

Wurie was active in several community organizations, the Senate candidate said, adding that she was "making transformational impacts that were felt both locally and globally."

"Our thoughts and deepest condolences are with their families during this difficult time. Their loss is profound, and they will be deeply missed," Alsobrooks said.

The announcement came as Saudi Health Minister Fahd Al-Jalajel told local Arab News that 1,301 people on the pilgrimage have died. The minister said 83% of the deceased were unauthorized to perform Hajj, when hundreds of thousands walk long distances under the hot sun to reach Mecca.

The Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia is one of five main tenets of Islam. People who participate in the pilgrimage are required to register and receive proper permits, but many don't, which puts them at risk.

The trek began June 14, and some 1.8 million people registered for the sojourn.

Quebec maximum security prison evacuated over forest fires

The Port-Cartier Institution was evacuated Friday due to forest fires burning in the area. Photo courtesy of Correction Service Canada/Website

JUNE 24, 2024 / 

June 24 (UPI) -- Inmates held at a maximum security prison on Quebec's north shore have been evacuated due to intensifying forest fires, officials said.

Correctional Service Canada said Sunday that the evacuation order for the Port-Cartier Institution was issued Friday and its inmates were "successfully moved" to other secure federal correctional facilities.

"To carry out the evacuation, we put measures in place, together with our partners, to maintain the safety and security of our staff, the public and the offenders in our care and custody," Correctional Service Canada said in a statement.

"Victim notification has occurred, based on the notification preferences that they provided to the Correctional Service of Canada."

The correctional facility is located in the city of Port-Cartier, located about 522 miles northeast of Montreal along the north shore of the St. Lawrence River. The prison has a capacity of 237 inmates, and was home to convicted serial killer Robert Pickton until he died earlier this month.

At least seven fires have been ignited north of Port-Cartier and Sept-Iles due to lightening strikes earlier this month, Quebec's forest fire prevention agency SOPFEU said in a statement Thursday.

On Sunday, SOPFEU said some of the fires remain out of control.

Port-Cartier City Mayor Alain Thibault has declared a state of emergency and announced mandatory evacuation orders for residences located north of Route 138.

"I would like to extend my gratitude to all of our staff and partners who worked tirelessly to plan and successfully execute this complex operation in an evolving wildfire situation," Anne Kelly, Correctional Service Canada commissioner, said.

"I appreciate the efforts of so many who pulled together to make this happen, while keeping safety and security top of mind."

U$A

SNAP benefits, trade barriers among obstacles to farm bill renewal

By Mike Heuer


Trade barriers, foreign ownership of U.S. farmland and rising food costs that affect SNAP benefits are among several issues federal lawmakers hope to address before a final Farm Bill is enacted. File Photo by Bill Greenblatt/UPI | License Photo

June 14 (UPI) -- A potential reduction in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for needy families is among key issues keeping Congress from renewing a five-year agriculture policy law known as the farm bill.

Republicans on the House Agricultural Committee want to freeze SNAP benefits at current levels to help rein in government spending. But Democrats in the House and Senate say doing so could deprive a family of four of one or two days' worth of food every month -- and that could be a deal-breaker.

"Key parts of the House bill split from the Farm Bill Coalition in a way that makes it impossible to achieve the votes to become law," Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., said in a prepared statement. "We do not have time to waste on proposals that cannot meet that goal."

Stabenow, who chairs the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, said there is a "bipartisan path forward" by "respecting the needs and interests of the broad farm and food coalition."

"I know we can pass a strong, bipartisan bill that keeps farmers farming, families fed and rural communities strong," she said.

But the GOP seems to have a plan that veers away from a bipartisan effort.

The revised bill should devote tens of billions of dollars more to crop subsidies, as well as crop insurance, Sen. John Boozman, R-Ark., said last week when he released the Senate Republican outline for farm bill discussions.

U.S. Department of Agriculture officials say they are disappointed that the GOP-controlled House is offering a bill that would halt increases to SNAP benefits. About 80% of the farm bill's funding is dedicated to those benefits for an estimated 41 million Americans.

Under the House version of a new bill, Congress would impose limits on the USDA's Thrifty Food Plan over the next five years The food plan is based on what the agency says is a food basket that represents a practical, nutritious and cost-effective diet.

When the cost of that virtual food basket rises, so do SNAP benefits. And USDA officials say the House bill reneges on a promise made during debt ceiling negotiations last year by halting increases in SNAP benefits.

The House majority made a deal with President Joe Biden in which, after implementing work requirements for SNAP benefits, the GOP agreed no further changes would be made while the 118th Congress is in session, the USDA told UPI via email.

The proposal to freeze future Thrifty Food Plan benefit adjustments, which SNAP benefits are based on, violates the deal, according to the USDA.

The USDA says the House bill undermines nutrition security by taking away the USDA's ability to ensure that SNAP reflects the price of a healthy and cost-conscious diet while rising prices make it harder to put food on the table.

Freezing SNAP benefits is among areas of contention that Stabenow said make it hard to reconcile differences in the House measure and and eventual Senate version of the farm bill.

One element that is complicating the picture is that trade barriers are making it difficult for many U.S. farmers to sell goods overseas while keeping domestic prices lower.

"American farmers are now facing trade barriers and higher costs that are making it harder to market and sell their goods overseas," House Agriculture Committee co-Chairman Glenn Thompson, R-Pa., and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, D-Mo., said in a joint op-ed column.

They said the nation's agriculture trade deficit reached a record $21 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $30.5 billion this year.

Under former President Donald Trump's administration, the nation averaged an agriculture trade surplus of $5.2 billion.

"Policymakers in Congress must ensure we are doing everything in our power to support American farmers and ranchers and be willing to bat for them globally," Thompson and Smith said.

The House version of the 2024 farm bill would help farmers compete abroad by improving the reach and impact of trade-promotion programs to access new markets for U.S.-produced agriculture goods, Thomson and Scott said.

Meanwhile, the House Agriculture and House Ways and Means committees are working to improve export opportunities for the nation's farmers and ag producers.

The Ways and Means Committee in April reauthorized the federal Generalized System of Preferences program, which eliminates duties on products imported from 119 participating nations.

In exchange, participating nations must "treat U.S. agriculture exports fairly" by "dropping both tariff and non-tariff barriers to goods produced by America's farmers," Scott and Thompson said.

Meanwhile, foreign ownership of U.S. farmland, especially purchases made by Chinese citizens or entities, has been blamed for increased food prices.

"For years, China has quietly amassed hundreds of thousands of acres of American farmland," Thompson and Scott said. "Americans cannot afford China's malign influence in our food supply."

The House version of the farm bill creates greater transparency of foreign ownership of U.S. farmland to determine how much is owned or controlled by foreign entities.

The House Ways and Means Committee recently approved a measure that would stop "countries of concern" from buying U.S. farmland. Those countries include China, Russia and Iran.

"China has been eating our lunch under the current administration," Scott and Thompson said. "We cannot allow our adversaries to meddle in our domestic food supply chain."

But some experts say the concern about Chinese ownership and control of the U.S. food supply is overblown.

Available data and evidence "suggest that Chinese ownership, representing a minuscule fraction of our agricultural lands, does not compromise our ability to produce food or manage our agricultural resources effectively," Professor David Ortega of Michigan State University testified in March to the House Agriculture Committee.

"Food security concerns are raised when discussing the threat of Chinese ownership of American farmland," he said. "The U.S. is not only self-sufficient in basic food production, but we also provide food for many across the globe.

"Food insecurity arises in our country not because of production deficits, but because of issues of affordability and access facing consumers."

The farm bill, which comes up for renewal every five years, initially expired Sept. 30. An extension ensures it will remain in effect through the 2024 crop year, while Congress debates a replacement measure that is due by the current extension's Sept. 30 expiration date.

Some agriculture observers have predicted that Congress won't meet that deadline, and another extension will be required -- to sometime after November's elections.

The House Agriculture Committee on May 29 voted out its version of the 2024 measure by a

Namibia: Major win for LGTBQ+ community

Jasko Rust

DW

June 21, 2024

A Namibian court has declared two laws banning same-sex acts unconstitutional. Members of the LGTBQ+ community say there is still a long road ahead.

Members of the public expressed their support for the LGTBQ+ community outside the court

Image: Opas Onucheyo/REUTERS

On a small stage in the garden of a house in the Namibian capital of Windhoek, half a dozen drag queens are rehearsing for their show the next day — Drag Night Namibia.

Each new pose is cheered on frenetically by the small crowd watching the rehearsal.

"The hardest working legs in drag," someone shouts as Aedin Mohrmann does a deep squat. Tonight he's wearing grey sweatpants, but tomorrow he will transform into his drag persona: Atlantis.

These drag performances are a safe space for Namibia's LGTBQ+ community, a place where they can feel free to be themselves.

Singer Lize Ehlers hosts rehearsals for Drag Night Namibia in her home

Image: Jasko Rust

"People are changing. I believe that visibility opens more minds," says Lize Ehlers.

The well-known Namibian singer is co-director of Drag Night Namibia and offers her home for rehearsals.

Events such as these are a chance to reach out to people outside of the LGTBQ+ community and engage them in dialogue, says drag queen Aedin Mohrmann. Opening a dialogue is his way of combating queer hostility. Mohrmann, like others in the country's LGTBQ+ community, remains cautious in everyday life.

"We simply have to be mindful," he told DW. "Even if it's just going to the shopping center. Just do what you have to do and go out."
LGBTQ+ community under pressure

Namibia's LGTBQ+ community is currently celebrating a major success in court. On June 21, 2024, Namibia's high court declared two colonial-era laws that criminalized sexual acts between men, to be unconstitutional. Still, life for members of Namibia's LGTBQ+ has become increasingly difficult in recent months.

Aedin Mohrmann presents his drag identity "Atlantis"Image: 

Aedin Mohrmann

In May 2023, the Namibian supreme court ruled that non-Namibian spouses of same-sex marriages that took place abroad must be given residency rights upon their return to Namibia.

A wave of homophobia followed.

"This backlash did not come from the (general) public," Omar van Reenen, a non-binary person who advocates for LGTBQ+ rights, tells DW. "It came from two actors: The government and religious extremists who fanned the flames of hatred."

High-ranking members of the ruling SWAPO party criticized the 2023 ruling. In a statement, the party expressed its "grave disappointment" and said it condemned all forms of "immoral and indecent acts." The SWAPO Youth League even referred to the ruling as "foreign cultural imperialism."

Van Reenen sees elements of state-supported homophobia in the actions of the country's politicians, and laments the marginalization of the queer community and the increase in hate crimes.

The past year has seen a number of shockingly violent homophobic crimes.

At the end of April 2024, a transgender woman was brutally murdered in an informal settlement of Windhoek. The 30-year-old was found with dozens of stab wounds and her mutilated genitals lying on her chest, according to police.

Ugandan could face death penalty under anti-gay law  01:40

Namibia politicians united against homosexuality

In response to the Supreme Court's LGTBQ+ friendly ruling in 2023, SWAPO politician Jerry Ekandjo introduced a bill in parliament. It includes an amendment to the Marriage Act of 1961 that defines marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman. It would also criminalize being a witness in a same-sex wedding and generally promoting same-sex marriages.

Laws such as those which were overturned on June 21, 2024, are the legacy of the colonial period in Namibia.

Image: Opas Onucheyo/REUTERS

The amendment was approved in both chambers of parliament with little protest and has been awaiting the president's signature for months.

"I think that the president has not yet signed the law because he knows that it is undemocratic," activist Omar van Reenen speculates.

The upcoming election campaign could also play a role. DW inquiries for comment to Jerry Ekandjo have so far gone unanswered.

Until the laws were overturned on June 21, 2024, sexual acts between two men could be prosecuted. Although convictions were relatively rare, rights campaigners said they have perpetuated discrimination against the LGBTQ+ community and caused gay men to live in fear of arrest.

A major win for the LGBTQ+ community

The decriminalization of same-sex acts is undeniably a major win for the LGTBQ+ community. Speaking of the ruling, Namibia's high court acknowledged that sexual practices were being criminalized solely on the basis of gender. The lawsuit was brought on by LGBTQ+ activist Friedel Dausab.

Many say the victory in court could mark a turning point for securing the rights of LGTBQ+ people in Namibia. "We need a precedent that we can rely on and that forms the basis for the protection of future generations" activist Omar van Reenen told DW.

For van Reenen, going to the Supreme Court is the next step, and that the court should make a statement about the status of LGBTQ+ rights in Namibia.

Omar van Reenen founded the organization "Equal Namibia," which campaigns for the rights of queer people

Image: Jasko Rust

Drag queen Aedin Mohrmann is now calling for a referendum on the rights of LQTBQ+ people in Namibia, including their right to marry. He feels the public would vote in favor of the LGTBQ+ community. "It would certainly be close, but the majority would vote yes in the end" he told DW. Mohrmann is counting on the country's youth in particular — they understand that a united Namibia would be stronger.

This article was adapted from German by Martina Schwikowski.

Are African LGBTQ+ rights improving?  01:16

Medical centre for illegal immigrants to be closed during Paris Olympics

A medical centre for illegal immigrants in Paris' Seine-Saint-Denis, located a stone's throw from main sites for the Olympics, will close its doors during the summer to protect its patients from an expected increase in police checks. "It was an extremely difficult decision, a certain kind of abandonment, but at the same time a certain kind of responsibility towards the people we support," says Matthieu Dréan, head of the NGO Médecins du Monde health centre.

Issued on: 17/06/2024 - 

01:38

FORWARD TO THE PAST

Can Greece's new six-day workweek be a model for others?

 BACKWARDS TO THE FUTURE

Timothy Rooks

DW

June 22, 2024

Greece is moving toward a six-day workweek, while several other countries are experimenting with shorter office hours. The government hopes to make up for missing workers and fight black market labor. Can it work?


https://p.dw.com/p/4hHft

For most people, labor law can be boring. But when someone suggests working an extra day, people start to pay attention.

In Greece, new regulations are coming into effect on July 1 that make this possible.

After that day certain industrial and manufacturing facilities, as well as businesses providing 24/7 services, can move to a six-day workweek instead of the traditional five, says Emmanouil Savoidakis, head of the labor law practice at Politis & Partners, a law firm based in Athens that specializes in business law. Tourism and food service industries are excluded from this new arrangement.

For those impacted, it would mean a normal legal workweek of 48 hours instead of the previous 40. In theory, employees can choose to work more if companies want them to. Those who work more will also be paid more.

The Greek government says the new rules will simplify administration, reduce probation periods to six months and shine a light on overtime.

The legislation is also supposed to help fill holes in the skilled-labor market by combating undeclared work and offering incentives like free employee training to help "upskill and adapt to evolving market demands," said Savoidakis, who has over 15 years of legal experience. Importantly "the six-day workweek is not universally applicable but is restricted to certain business sectors."

Can this be a role model for other countries?

Tourism makes up a big part of the Greek economy and it is suffering from a lack of qualified workersImage: Petros Giannakouris/AP/picture alliance
Putting in more or less hours at the office

Greece has many challenges like low wages, high unemployment and a declining population, but it is not alone. Yet working more stands in stark contrast to most of its European neighbors.

Companies in several countries like Germany, Belgium, France, the UK, Spain and Iceland have been experimenting with different workweek models. Either squeezing the 40-hour week into four days of more intense 10-hour days. Or simply getting 100% of the work done in just 80% of the time, while still receiving a full salary.

Earlier this year in Germany, the national railway company Deutsche Bahn and the train drivers' union agreed to gradually reduce the standard workweek from 38 to 35 hours. Demands for a shorter workweek are being made in other sectors as well.
A Greek recovery from bad times

Greece though is taking another path. And this isn't the first time the country has been confronted with a six-day workweek. During their debt crisis, which started in 2009 and nearly got the country kicked out of the eurozone, some lenders demanded that the Greeks work more.

The country accepted bailouts worth billions of euros that came with strict austerity measures. Yet, a sixth day of work was not introduced.

Now Greece is back on track and GDP growth is expected to be 2.2% this year and 2.3% next year, above the eurozone average, according to European Commission calculations released in mid-May. Unemployment is expected to fall from a forecast 10.3% this year to 9.7% in 2025.

Still, during the past decade many young, well-educated Greeks have left the country because they saw better opportunities abroad. The population is expected to shrink from 10.7 million in 2019 to around 10.4 million in 2029, worsening an existing shortage of skilled workers in some sectors like agriculture, tourism and construction.

At the same time, Greeks already put in some of the longest hours per year, according to the OECD. Although the OECD numbers are sometimes difficult to compare, the trend is clear. Greeks work significantly more than their counterparts in the UK, the US and Germany.

1933

Making the law reflect a Greek reality

On the positive side, the minimum monthly wage for white-collar workers rose to €830 ($887) from April 1, up from €650 in 2019. The average monthly wage is now around €1,250, and the Greek prime minister recently announced he plans to bring it up to €1,500 by 2027.

But these wage increases do not make up for previous wage reductions and persistent high inflation that have forced many citizens to work two jobs to make ends meet, says Jens Bastian from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.

The new regulations just "retroactively adjust the legal context to the reality existing in the Greek labor market for years," he said, which simply means many people already work more than five days.

Working longer and earning more could even "land various employees in higher personal income tax and social security brackets, thus neutralizing prospective wage gains by working longer hours," Bastian told DW.

Structural change instead of longer hours

Moreover, the new regulations give employers a lot of sway. Can jobseekers refuse the offer and stick to their current five-day workweek?

"The negotiations between employer and employee can include the former demanding and the latter refusing to work longer," said Bastian.

In Greece, many working time arrangements lack trade union representation, in particular at small and medium-sized companies. "Keeping your job may be the bigger incentive than refusing to work longer hours at the insistence of the employer," Bastian said.

Emmanouil Savoidakis from the Politis & Partners law firm in Athens says several corporate clients are already interested in a six-day workweek "to enhance their operational capacity and better serve their customers, particularly those in industries facing labor shortages and high seasonal demand." He could see it rolled out in businesses with fluctuating workloads like retail, manufacturing and health care.

Much of this is just a short-term fix though. A six-day workweek can't solve Greece's broader economic problems, said Bastian. Longer working hours won't make up for missing personnel in the long term and other countries should pay attention.

Greece needs to make structural changes that include "incentives such as viable career trajectories, equal opportunity and higher wages that reflect people's professional expertise," said Bastian.

"In that respect, Greece has a long and winding road to go until it catches up with most other countries in Europe. Working longer hours and Saturday is akin to taking a road in the opposite direction," he concluded.

Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey

Timothy Rooks One of DW's team of business reporters, Timothy Rooks is based in Berlin.

Will climate change make insurance too expensive?

Insa Wrede

DW

Extreme weather events influenced by climate change are causing ever greater destruction, forcing insurers to increase their premiums where they can. What does this mean for the future?

Extreme weather events, such as the recent floods in Germany (above), are causing ever more damage

Image: Bernd Weißbrod/dpa/picture alliance


"Basically, if there is more damage, someone has to pay for it," said Ernst Rauch, a climate expert with Munich Re, a major reinsurance company. Either insurance companies, the state, or the person who suffered the damage must foot the bill.

The logic behind insurance is that many people sign up, but only a few suffer losses and receive compensation. If a growing number of people are hit by losses, however, insurance companies will pass on the risk and increase premiums for insurance holders.

As some previous extreme events have proven too costly to cover, insurance companies have in turn passed on some of their risk to what are known as reinsurers. Munich Re is one of these companies. It has been studying the effects of climate change for around 50 years with regard to their consequences for their own business.
A shrinking field of insurance companies

What happens when climate change creates such great risks that insurers no longer want to insure certain parts of the world, or they have to raise premiums to such an extent that no one is willing to pay them?

One such example is State Farm. The major insurance company has stopped selling insurance policies in California, citing the growing risk of catastrophes, steep construction costs and a challenging reinsurance market.

US insurance company State Farm no longer offers new policies in California, in part due to extreme heat and fire riskImage: California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

In California, insurance companies had to cover between $1 to $3 billion (€935 million to €2.8 billion) in damages annually over the past decades, Rauch told DW. These days, however, annual insurance claims have jumped to well over $10 billion, he added.
Global damages totaling a hundred billion dollars

Other parts of the world have also been hit by increasingly extreme weather events that cause serious destruction, and Germany is no exception. It experiences floods, storms, droughts and fires. The German Meteorological Service warns that such extreme events will grow more frequent, resulting in even greater destruction, affecting more and more people.

"The amount of insured damage resulting from natural disasters now annually totals around $100 billion worldwide, " Rauch told DW. "Eighty to 90% of these damages are weather-related."

Extreme weather is a global phenomenon: Volunteers rescue a man from flooding in Porto Alegre, Brazil

Image: Bruno Nagel Conrado/DW

Damage can be minimized

The increasing amount of damage is only partly the result of more frequent extreme weather events, Rauch says, explaining that socio-economic factors play a greater role. The value of buildings and infrastructure is increasing, populations are growing, and construction is still taking place in particularly vulnerable areas such as coastal regions or near rivers.

The actual amount of damage caused is much greater, however, as not everything is covered by insurance. In fact, only half of all the world's natural disasters are covered at all, Rauch says. Even in Germany, for example, only about half of all buildings are insured against flooding, he points out.

The cost of Germany's floods for farming and industry  03:18

Extreme weather events in Germany, such as the exceptionally hot and dry summers of recent years and the devasting flood of 2021, have caused more than €80 billion in damage, says Germany's Environment Ministry. This figure includes damage caused to buildings and infrastructure, harvest losses and damaged forestry, as well as indirect losses, for instance due to reduced labor productivity.

Following the deadly floods in Germany's Ahrtal in 2021, the state had to cover many damage costs incurred by the uninsured

Image: Boris Roessler/dpa/picture alliance

Premiums must match risk

Does Rauch believe Germany may one day find itself in a similar situation to California, where insurers like State Farm have stopped issuing policies? He explains that US supervisory authorities, called insurance commissioners, do not allow insurers to increase premiums to reflect growing risks. This, he said, is the reason State Farm withdrew from California.

In the long term, however, Rauch believes that certain regions may find it impossible to get insurance coverage even in those parts of the world where insurers can charge what they want. He does not think this could happen in the next five to 10 years, with the exception of some smaller regions.

The June floods in Baden-Württemberg (above) and Bavaria caused estimated billions in damage

Image: Marijan Murat/dpa/picture alliance

The overall economic costs wrought by climate change will increase enormously in Germany in the coming years, the German government has found. Depending on how rapidly the planet heats up, this could cause damages in the range of €280 to €900 billion by 2050. This estimate excludes the impact of deaths, diminished quality of life, animal and plant species going extinct and damage to the water supply system.
Damage prevention ever more important

When it comes to controlling costs, damage prevention plays a key role alongside attempts to limit climate change. According to Rauch, these are the most important measures that can be taken in areas where the climate risks become so high that insurance companies can no longer offer affordable policies. Possible examples in the public realm include building levees; private individuals can secure their heating oil tanks, tile their basements and make sure no valuable possessions are stored there.

Flood protection measures improved greatly in Germany after significant flooding occurred along the country's major rivers in 2002 and 2013, Rauch says, adding that similar measures must be implemented along coastlines around the world.

The German Insurance Association (GDV) has also called for action: "The top priority should be climate-adapted planning, construction and renovation." No new building should take place in areas prone to flooding, the association says, and natural surfaces must be restored.

No time to waste

The industry group believes fast action is required. "If we fail to systematically institute preventive measures and adapt to the climate, our estimates show that premiums for homeowners insurance will double in Germany within the next 10 years due to climate damage alone," Jörg Asmussen, the chief executive officer of the German Insurance Association, warned more than a year ago.

Europe as a whole is also too slow when it comes to prevention, the European Environment Agency (EEA) concluded in its first European Climate Risk Assessment. The EEA's executive director, Leena Ylä-Mononen, has called on the responsible European and national political authorities to act now, saying the only way to minimize climate risks is by quickly reducing emissions, adopting ambitious adjustment strategies and undertaking the necessary related measures.

This article has been translated from German.

Switzerland: Floods cause deadly landslide

Rescuers were looking for two missing people following a deadly landslide in the Swiss canton of Graubünden. Severe storms and flooding have also prompted evacuation of hundreds in the southwestern canton of Valais.

Heavy rainfall in southeastern Switzerland caused a landslide Saturday

Image: Jean-Christophe Bott/keystone/dpa/picture alliance

One person was dead in Switzerland on Sunday after severe storms hit the south of the country, causing flooding and a landslide.

Three people initially went missing in the landslide, but police later announced that the body of one was found. The search for the other two remained ongoing.

Dozens of people were evacuated due to a landslide in the Mesocco and Calanca valleys in the southeastern canton of Graubünden.

The houses of those missing were destroyed in the landslide in Mesocco. Streets in the village were flooded, according to cantonal police.

Another woman had been reported missing but was found on Saturday morning.

A stretch of some 200 meters on the A13 highway to Italy was destroyed.

Swiss President Viola Amherd said she was shocked by the scale of the damage.

“My thoughts are with those affected. I thank the emergency personnel for their tireless efforts in this difficult situation,” Amherd said on X.

Trains resume in Zermatt, after ski town was briefly cut off by floodwaters

Trains began running in the town of Zermatt in the southwestern canton of Valais after rail traffic had been suspended for over 24 hours.

Schools had also been closed in the town.

Zermatt is located near Matterhorn, a popular tourist destination.

Both the railway line and the road into the town had been blocked temporarily due to flooding.

The Vispa river, a headstream of the Rhone that runs through the canton, broke its banks. Authorities declared a state of emergency for the Rhone and several of its tributaries.

Swiss news agency SDA cited Marie-Claude Noth-Ecoeur, the head of the Valais branch of the civil protection service, as saying that 230 people were forced to leave their homes by late on Friday.

Over 200 firefighters and 50 civil protection workers were involved in rescue activities, she said.

Swiss authorities declared an emergency for the Rhone and associated waterways after rivers burst their banks, leading to heavy flooding in the Valais canton

DW

Israeli military straps man to jeep during West Bank arrest

The Israel Defense Forces said an incident, involving a Palestinian man tied to a military jeep moving through the occupied West Bank city of Jenin, was a "violation" of its rules and values.

The man's family said he was strapped to the jeep after being wounded in fighting with Israel's military

Image: Reuters TV

Israel's military on Sunday said its soldiers violated orders when they drove with a wounded Palestinian man tied to the hood of a military jeep in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.

Video footage on social media, verified by news agencies, shows Jenin resident Mujahed Azmi tied horizontally to the hood of the vehicle that passes by two ambulances through a narrow alley on Saturday.

The Israeli military said the man was wounded during a "counterterrorism operation" in the area of Wadi Burqin.

The military claimed he was a suspected Palestinian militant who was part of a group shooting at Israeli troops.

"During the exchange of fire, one of the suspects was injured and apprehended," the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement.

IDF says 'violation' of operating procedures

"In violation of orders and standard operating procedures, the suspect was taken by the forces while tied on top of a vehicle," an IDF statement sent to news agencies said.

"The conduct of the forces in the video of the incident does not conform to the values of the IDF," it continued, adding that the incident would be investigated and "dealt with accordingly."

The injured man was transferred to the Palestinian Red Crescent and is being treated at a hospital in Jenin, medics told AFP news agency.

Azmi's family told Reuters news agency that they had asked for an ambulance after he was wounded, but the army took him, strapped him to the hood and drove off.
West Bank troubles soar since October 7

Violence in the West Bank has soared since the Israel-Hamas conflict began, with frequent army raids on militant groups, rampages by Jewish settlers in Palestinian villages, and deadly Palestinian street attacks.

At least 553 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank by Israeli troops or settlers since the war broke out on October 7, according to Palestinian officials.

How Israel is displacing Palestinians in West Bank  05:06

Attacks by Palestinians have killed at least 14 Israelis in the West Bank over the same period, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.

Earlier this month, the World Health Organization warned that the increasing violence was causing a major health crisis , as residents struggled to access urgent medical care.

Jenin is known as a stronghold for Palestinian militant groups, and the Israeli army routinely carries out raids in the city and nearby refugee camp.

mm/rm (AFP, Reuters)