ChatGPT is biased against resumes with credentials that imply a disability — but it can improve

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

While seeking research internships last year, University of Washington graduate student Kate Glazko noticed recruiters posting online that they’d used OpenAI’s ChatGPT and other artificial intelligence tools to summarize resumes and rank candidates. Automated screening has been commonplace in hiring for decades. Yet Glazko, a doctoral student in the UW’s Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering, studies how generative AI can replicate and amplify real-world biases — such as those against disabled people. How might such a system, she wondered, rank resumes that implied someone had a disability?

In a new study, UW researchers found that ChatGPT consistently ranked resumes with disability-related honors and credentials — such as the “Tom Wilson Disability Leadership Award” — lower than the same resumes without those honors and credentials. When asked to explain the rankings, the system spat out biased perceptions of disabled people. For instance, it claimed a resume with an autism leadership award had “less emphasis on leadership roles” — implying the stereotype that autistic people aren’t good leaders.

But when researchers customized the tool with written instructions directing it not to be ableist, the tool reduced this bias for all but one of the disabilities tested. Five of the six implied disabilities — deafness, blindness, cerebral palsy, autism and the general term “disability” — improved, but only three ranked higher than resumes that didn't mention disability.

The team presented its findings June 5 at the 2024 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency in Rio de Janeiro.

“Ranking resumes with AI is starting to proliferate, yet there’s not much research behind whether it’s safe and effective,” said Glazko, the study’s lead author. “For a disabled job seeker, there’s always this question when you submit a resume of whether you should include disability credentials. I think disabled people consider that even when humans are the reviewers.”

Researchers used one of the study’s authors’ publicly available curriculum vitae (CV), which ran about 10 pages. The team then created six enhanced CVs, each implying a different disability by including four disability-related credentials: a scholarship; an award; a diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) panel seat; and membership in a student organization.

Researchers then used ChatGPT’s GPT-4 model to rank these enhanced CVs against the original version for a real “student researcher” job listing at a large, U.S.-based software company. They ran each comparison 10 times; in 60 trials, the system ranked the enhanced CVs, which were identical except for the implied disability, first only one quarter of the time.

“In a fair world, the enhanced resume should be ranked first every time,” said senior author Jennifer Mankoff, a UW professor in the Allen School. “I can’t think of a job where somebody who’s been recognized for their leadership skills, for example, shouldn’t be ranked ahead of someone with the same background who hasn’t.”

When researchers asked GPT-4 to explain the rankings, its responses exhibited explicit and implicit ableism. For instance, it noted that a candidate with depression had “additional focus on DEI and personal challenges,” which “detract from the core technical and research-oriented aspects of the role.”

“Some of GPT’s descriptions would color a person’s entire resume based on their disability and claimed that involvement with DEI or disability is potentially taking away from other parts of the resume,” Glazko said. “For instance, it hallucinated the concept of ‘challenges’ into the depression resume comparison, even though ‘challenges’ weren’t mentioned at all. So you could see some stereotypes emerge.”

Given this, researchers were interested in whether the system could be trained to be less biased. They turned to the GPTs Editor tool, which allowed them to customize GPT-4 with written instructions (no code required). They instructed this chatbot to not exhibit ableist biases and instead work with disability justice and DEI principles.

They ran the experiment again, this time using the newly trained chatbot. Overall, this system ranked the enhanced CVs higher than the control CV 37 times out of 60. However, for some disabilities, the improvements were minimal or absent: The autism CV ranked first only three out of 10 times, and the depression CV only twice (unchanged from the original GPT-4 results).

“People need to be aware of the system’s biases when using AI for these real-world tasks,” Glazko said. “Otherwise, a recruiter using ChatGPT can’t make these corrections, or be aware that, even with instructions, bias can persist.”

Researchers note that some organizations, such as ourability.com and inclusively.com, are working to improve outcomes for disabled job seekers, who face biases whether or not AI is used for hiring. They also emphasize that more research is needed to document and remedy AI biases. Those include testing other systems, such as Google’s Gemini and Meta’s Llama; including other disabilities; studying the intersections of the system’s bias against disabilities with other attributes such as gender and race; exploring whether further customization could reduce biases more consistently across disabilities; and seeing whether the base version of GPT-4 can be made less biased.

“It is so important that we study and document these biases,” Mankoff said. “We’ve learned a lot from and will hopefully contribute back to a larger conversation — not only regarding disability, but also other minoritized identities — around making sure technology is implemented and deployed in ways that are equitable and fair.”

Additional co-authors were Yusuf Mohammed, a UW undergraduate in the Allen School; Venkatesh Potluri, a UW doctoral student in the Allen School; and Ben Kosa, who completed this research as a UW undergraduate in the Allen School and is an incoming doctoral student at University of Wisconsin–Madison. This research was funded by the National Science Foundation; by donors to the UW’s Center for Research and Education on Accessible Technology and Experiences (CREATE); and by Microsoft.

For more information, contact Glazko at glazko@cs.washington.edu and Mankoff at jmankoff@cs.washington.edu.

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DOI

10.1145/3630106.3658933 

ARTICLE TITLE

Identifying and Improving Disability Bias in GPT-Based Resume Screening

 

Scientists document self-propelling oxygen decline in the oceans

UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN - THE FACULTY OF HEALTH AND MEDICAL SCIENCES

Scientists from the University of Copenhagen have made significant strides in understanding ancient ocean anoxia, with potential insights for today's marine environments.

500 million years ago the so-called Cambrian ‘SPICE’ event made oxygen levels in the oceans drop dramatically.

Now, researchers from the University of Copenhagen have investigated how large-scale ocean anoxia, or oxygen-depleted conditions, developed during the event, and its potential consequences today.

In the study, titled "Cascading oxygen loss shorewards in the oceans – insights from the Cambrian SPICE event" published in OneEarth researchers found that a chain reaction involving phosphorus recycling from ocean sediments played a key role in this decline of the oxygen levels in the oceans.

“Under anoxic conditions, phosphorus is released more efficiently from sediments, which further depleted oxygen levels and expanded anoxia at the global scale,” says Associate Professor Tais W. Dahl at the Globe Institute, senior author of the study. He adds:

“This self-amplifying loop led to a rapid and prolonged marine anoxia. The study warns that the feedback loop is still looming in today's oceans, where human activities might influence nutrient dynamics in ways that increase the risk setting off cascading anoxic conditions. Coastal zones, in particular, could be susceptible to anoxia that might propagate on a larger scale.”.

While global-scale anoxia is not an immediate threat today due to limited phosphorus resources and high atmospheric oxygen levels, the study highlights the importance of understanding nutrient dynamics and sedimentation processes, particularly in coastal zones. These insights are crucial for managing the health of marine ecosystems and their resident animal species.

By comparing ancient and modern marine systems, this study provides valuable insights into the potential evolution of ocean chemistry today. Emphasizing the importance of historical context, the research aims to improve predictive models and guide policy decisions to safeguard marine ecosystems and ensure their resilience in the face of ongoing environmental changes.
 

For more information, contact:
University of Copenhagen
Tais W. Dahl
Tais.dahl@sund.ku.dk
+45 3532 2356

About the University of Copenhagen:
The University of Copenhagen is a leading research and education institution, committed to advancing knowledge through high-quality research and innovative teaching. The university fosters an environment where academic excellence can thrive, contributing significantly to society through impactful research findings.

About the Globe Institute:
The Globe Institute is part of the Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences at the University of Copenhagen. The Institute’s main purpose is to address basic scientific questions through interdisciplinary approaches. The institute operates at the intersection of natural and medical sciences and the humanities.

 

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JOURNAL

One Earth

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Cascading oxygen loss shorewards in the oceans – insights from the Cambrian SPICE event

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

21-Jun-2024

 

Boosting biodiversity without hurting local economies

With conservation, bigger isn’t always better

DUKE UNIVERSITY

DURHAM, N.C. -- Protected areas, like nature reserves, can conserve biodiversity without harming local economic growth, countering a common belief that conservation restricts development. A new study outlines what is needed for conservation to benefit both nature and people. 

Conservation zones aim to preserve biodiversity, protect endangered species, and maintain natural habitats. “There’s long been uncertainty about the economic tradeoffs,” said Binbin Li, associate professor of environmental science at Duke Kunshan University, and lead author of the study published on June 20 in Current Biology. “Our findings show achieving both aims is more common than we previously expected. But that balance depends on socioeconomic conditions near a protected area,” said Li. 

The study found that 91% of the nearly 10,000 protected areas studied lost no or less natural land than similar but unprotected areas – a conservation win. But perhaps surprisingly, almost half the surveyed protected areas safeguard natural land without hurting, and sometimes helping, local economic growth.

Several factors were key to their success, the researchers say. For one, having nearby roads and a higher level of economic development both help. There are trade-offs, otherwise: the local economy is hurt, or protected areas fail. Biodiverse regions with emerging economies, like the Amazon and Southeast Asia, face the biggest challenges meeting the needs of nature and people.

“Conservation does not happen in a silo,” said co-author Stuart Pimm, Doris Duke Distinguished Professor of Conservation Ecology at Duke University, and an expert on habitat loss and species extinction. “We must consider local development alongside biodiversity conservation to know where and how to protect areas to benefit both the environment and humans.”

In the study, 60% of the communities living around protected areas had similar or higher levels of economic growth than those living around unprotected areas. Protected areas that both safeguard nature while benefiting local development tend to be smaller in size, and closer to markets and cities. “Bigger isn’t necessarily better,” said Li.

“We need to get to a win-win outcome more often, especially in the most biodiverse regions that can ill-afford losing out on economic development or biodiversity,” said Li. “We cannot address biodiversity loss without addressing local development issues.”

CITATION: “The Synergy Between Protected Area Effectiveness and Economic Growth,” Binbin V. Li, Shuyao Wu, Stuart Pimm, Jingbo Cui. Current Biology, June 20, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2024.05.044

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JOURNAL

Current Biology

DOI

10.1016/j.cub.2024.05.044 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

The synergy between protected area effectiveness and economic growth

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

20-Jun-2024

 

Cooling ‘blood oranges’ could make them even healthier – a bonus for consumers

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

 

IMAGE: 

BLOOD ORANGES

view more 

CREDIT: ALI SARKHOSH, UF/IFAS

An orange teeming with antioxidants and other health benefits may be a shot in the arm for consumers and citrus growers, if the fruit is stored at cool temperatures, a new University of Florida study shows.

 

But it’s too soon to know if the so-called “blood oranges” are a viable crop for the Florida citrus industry, says Ali Sarkhosh, a UF/IFAS associate professor of horticultural sciences. Sarkhosh’s post-doctoral associate Fariborz Habibi explains further.

“Although blood oranges typically command higher prices than other common varieties, such as navel or Valencia oranges, it is unclear if farmers could substantially increase their per-acre income by adding them to their crop selection and then storing them for internal color development,” said Habibi, lead author of the study. “Improved fruit quality from the storage method presents a promising opportunity for the Florida citrus industry. However, further study is needed before recommending anything to growers.”

The fruit is rich in anthocyanins, which have been linked to various health benefits, including anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties. They also contain other beneficial phytochemicals such as vitamin C, flavonoids and dietary fiber.

“Fruit can also develop internal color under similar conditions at home. However, the fruit in the supermarket should have a good internal color and be ready for consumption,” Sarkhosh said.

For this research, scientists harvested fruit from a research plot at the UF/IFAS North Florida Research and Education Center in Quincy.

Scientists found that storing the blood oranges at 40 to 53 degrees enhances anthocyanin, phenolic content, and antioxidants. When they lowered the temperatures 43 to 46 degrees, they also preserved fruit firmness, weight loss and sugar content.

“Attributes such as firmness are crucial for maintaining the overall quality, texture and taste of the blood oranges during storage,” said Habibi.

Blood oranges get their name from their deep red flesh. Their skin contains a type of antioxidant pigment. The fruit is commonly grown in countries like Italy and Spain, which have the Mediterranean climate – cold, but above 32 degrees -- that helps them grow. In the United States, blood oranges grow primarily in California, but are not grown commercially yet in Florida.

Anthocyanin develops when the fruit is exposed to cold temperatures between 46 and 59 degrees for at least 20 days. Such conditions are rare in Florida’s subtropical climate.

UF/IFAS post-doctoral associate Fariborz Habibi studies blood oranges in a lab

CREDIT

Ali Sarkhosh, UF/IFAS

JOURNAL

Food Chemistry Advances

DOI

10.1016/j.focha.2024.100722 

ARTICLE TITLE

Postharvest storage temperature strategies affect anthocyanin levels, total phenolic content, antioxidant activity, chemical attributes of juice, and physical qualities of blood orange fruit

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

20-Jun-2024

 

New report on community-centered approach to providing vaccine education and resources to persons experiencing homelessness during COVID-19

May be pathway to getting information to vulnerable populations during a health emergency

BOSTON UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE

(Boston)— A community-support model for providing health resources and education is a way to continuously engage unhoused people and other underserved groups who are particularly vulnerable during health emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Having a stable system for bringing health information to unhoused people and connecting them to providers at Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program (BHCHP), is a pathway for addressing a number of health issues they experience,” said Kareem King, Jr., research program manager at Boston University’s Clinical & Translational Science Institute. “Many of the people we interacted with lacked insurance or a primary care team, meaning their only option was to visit shelter clinics or the Boston Medical Center emergency room.” King is the corresponding author of the report, “Building Power on Mass&Cass: A Community-Centered Approach to Addressing Health Resource Gaps for Persons Experiencing Homelessness in Boston, MA, 2021” published online in the American Journal of Public Health.

The report outlines the joint work of two organizations, Housing Equals Health, a health justice initiative, and We Got Us, a student-led nonprofit focused on health equity, supported by the Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics – Underserved Populations Initiative (RADx-UP) with Duke and the National Institute of Health. BHCHP was a consultant.

This initiative started in November 2021. It was created from work that Housing=Health and other advocacy organizations had done earlier on in the pandemic to bring attention to the unique health issues unhoused people experienced. From April 1, 2022 – March 31, 2023, RADx-UP supported them to conduct outreach events on a bi-weekly basis at four rotating Boston locations chosen with guidance from community members and insight from BHCHP.

At the outreach events, persons experiencing homelessness (PEH) received COVID information, testing, and a resource kit which included a number of items provided by nonprofit and industry partners (masks, sanitizer, wipes, water, snacks, etc). In addition to this, they were asked to participate in surveys to share their experience utilizing the programs, and what they would like to see at future events. Longer interviews to discuss healthcare experiences and needs were conducted on a select group. The information was shared with BHCHP, the Boston Public Health Commission and other partners in this initiative.

“We conducted 28 outreach events, passed out 2,558 resource kits, and had over 3,000 interactions,” said King. “The events showed that community support and multi-sectoral partnerships are needed to build sustainable health programs. In times of crisis, survival and basic needs come first. Our goal was to meet those needs, through the support of our institutional partners, while engaging people with stable access to vaccinations and health education to promote ongoing public health efforts.”

King felt the initiative served as a model for the infrastructure and communication needed for future health emergencies.

“We were able to provide consistent public health resources to unhoused people, break accessibility barriers to COVID-19-related information, and establish a bidirectional pipeline of trusted public health messaging,” the report concluded. King felt it also showed that Boston-area students could be an important resource in building and maintaining health programs.

“This program demonstrates the value and impact that community-centered approaches have in driving sustainable public health efforts,” said King. Their work with unhoused populations continues.

Co-authors of the report included: Eilien Milien and Melissa Jones of We Got Us, Boston; and Terrance Mensah, MD, MPhil, and Lady Lawrence E.J. Carty, of Housing=Health.

Funding for this report was supported by the National Institutes of Health under Award Number C0437.

 

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JOURNAL

American Journal of Public Health

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Content analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Building Power on Mass&Cass: A Community-Centered Approach to Addressing Health Resource Gaps for Persons Experiencing Homelessness in Boston, MA, 2021

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

20-Jun-2024

 

After ISIS bombs, an urgent call to preserve an ancient Syrian temple

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PRESS JOURNALS

The Temple of Bel stands in the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra, adjoining a desert oasis with palm trees and bountiful water. Constructed in the first two centuries of the Common Era, the temple served for nearly two thousand years as a sanctuary for locals and as a site of significant archaeological interest. In 2015, the temple was destroyed by ISIS explosives. In “The Future of the Temple of Bel in Palmyra after its Destruction,” a new paper from the Bulletin of ASOR, authors Maamoun Abdulkarim and Jacques Seigne argue for the urgent need to intervene in the restoration of the temple, and to facilitate the return of the Palmyrene population, in order to ensure this World Heritage site’s enduring existence.

The Temple of Bel was built on an ancient tell and consecrated to a Mesopotamian god. The central cella structure stands in a courtyard, surrounded by Corinthian columns. During the temple’s long history, the building was variously used as a church, and then a mosque, before being converted into a residential shelter, which was its function through the early 20th century. Between 1920 and 1946, Syria and Lebanon were governed under the French mandate, and during this time, French authorities interested themselves in the preservation of Syria’s antiquities. The villagers of Palmyra were displaced from the Bel sanctuary into a settlement constructed nearby while the French administration catalogued and cleaned the temple site. And although the residents of Palmyra returned to their home following the French archaeological mission, they would be forced to flee again in 2015 and 2016, during two occupations by ISIS. Once a population of some 40,000, by 2022, only 2,000 people had returned to the village inside the temple walls.

The bombs ISIS detonated in the summer of 2015 caused great damage to the Temple of Bel, but did not succeed in destroying the structure entirely. Specialists visiting the site after its 2016 liberation from the terrorist group were able to confirm that although the walls of the cella had collapsed, along with columns of the surrounding porticos, a large western gate and the foundations of the temple walls remained intact. Nevertheless, write Abdulkarim and Seigne, the structure’s devastation disastrously impacted not only the site itself but also the lives of the citizens surrounding it. The return of the Palmyra community is crucial, the article authors write, “not only because they are a source of labor and practical expertise, but also due to their collective memory and ownership of the site. They are a part of its story.”

The story of the Temple of Bel is long and complex, including not just its origins in the age of the Roman Empire and its archaeological significance to visitors from across the world, but even, the authors note, its catastrophic bombing at the hands of extremists. The marks of destruction, they write, “are only another stage in the life of an exceptional, unique monument.” Yet despite this context, preservation, continue Abdulkarim and Seigne, is ultimately paramount. The site in its current state could pose dangers to those that visit it. Furthermore, the Temple of Bel’s place in the history of Syria must be stabilized. “Palmyra has witnessed the worst of times—the authors’ plea is for global cooperation and a shared ambition to protect the Temple of Bel, ensuring the return of a far more positive narrative.”

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JOURNAL

Bulletin of the American Society of Overseas Research

DOI

10.1086/729835 

ARTICLE TITLE

The Future of the Temple of Bel in Palmyra after Its Destruction

 

Human activity: A double-edged sword in the face of drought

POHANG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (POSTECH)

 

IMAGE: 

REDUCED SPRINGTIME PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL ANDES DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL FORCING

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CREDIT: POSTECH

Earth and environmental scientists reported that as human socio-economic activities increase, greenhouse gas emissions will rise, leading to more frequent extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. However, a research team from Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) has published a study suggesting that anthropogenic greenhouse gases might actually mitigate droughts, offering a new perspective on the impact of human activities on nature.

 

Professor Jonghun Kam from the Division of Environmental Science and Engineering at POSTECH used climate model simulations to examine individual effects of aerosols and greenhouse gases produced by human activities, focusing on the spring drought in 2022 that caused severe agricultural damage in the central Andes mountainous region. This research was recently published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, one of international journals in atmospheric science and meteorology.

 

Drought occurs when there is a prolonged absence of rainfall, leading to a lack of precipitation. It begins as a meteorological drought and progresses to an agricultural drought where the soil loses moisture. More severe droughts can escalate to hydrological droughts, characterized by reduced stream flows. When droughts significantly impact society and the economy, they are termed “socioeconomic droughts”.

 

The socioeconomic impact of drought is especially severe in societies and countries heavily dependent on agriculture. During the globally severe spring drought of 2022, the central Andean mountainous region of South America (including southern Peru, western Bolivia, and northern Chile), where agriculture is a major industry, experienced greater economic hardship than other regions. However, at that time, a shortage of human resources and funding limited an opportunity to better understand the causes of the 2022 drought.

 

In the study, Professor Jonghun Kam from POSTECH used 11 different climate models to analyze the impact of human activities on the spring drought that struck the Central Andean region in 2022, the most severe since 1951.

 

Climate model experiments revealed that human socio-economic activities have increased anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere, affecting its chemical composition and worsening the spring drought in the Central Andes. Conversely, the rise in greenhouse gases due to human activities has led to increased precipitation in the region, mitigating extreme spring droughts and reducing the likelihood of such events. Thus, aerosols and greenhouse gases from human activities have had opposite effects on atmospheric chemical composition and precipitation mechanisms.

 

The study is significant because it challenges previous conclusions that greenhouse gases are the primary cause of drought in South Africa and Iran, highlighting the need for more comprehensive research on the effects of human socio-economic activities.

 

Professor Jonghun Kam stated, "Some countries are disproportionately affected by extreme weather events due to the climate crisis, yet they often face the lacking of not only human but also financial resources to respond proactively.” He added, "Our goal is to address the global climate crisis by conducting research that supports these countries and thoroughly analyzing the impact of human activities on nature."

 

The research was conducted with the support from the Basic Research Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea.

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JOURNAL

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

DOI

10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0241.1 

ARTICLE TITLE

Climate Models Indicate Compensating Effects between Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols on the 2022 Central Andes Spring Drought

 

New study reveals the costs of sanctions

UNIVERSITY OF WÜRZBURG

Facts and figures in brief

• In Iran, gross domestic product fell by 1.9 per cent as a result of the sanctions in 2012.
• In Russia, gross domestic product fell by 1.4 per cent in 2014 as a result of the sanctions.
• If all countries in the world were to participate in the sanctions against Iran, the economic consequences would more than double.
• Involving all countries in the world in the sanctions against Russia would increase the economic consequences by more than 70 per cent.
• China joining the sanctions coalition against Russia would increase the effect by a good 22 per cent.
• Economically strong countries would have to transfer around 5.4 billion US dollars to countries that suffer disproportionately large economic damage as supporters of the sanctions against Iran and Russia.

Economic sanctions can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they usually reduce gross domestic product and thus prosperity in the affected countries, as intended. On the other hand, however, they can also have a severe impact on the economies of the sanctioning countries. However, a skilful selection of the countries involved in the sanctions measures could significantly mitigate these undesirable negative consequences.

These are the key findings of a new study that has now been published in the journal Economic Policy. Economists Sonali Chowdhry (DIW Berlin), Julian Hinz (Bielefeld University & IfW Kiel), Katrin Kamm (IfW Kiel) and Joschka Wanner (University of Würzburg & IfW Kiel) are responsible for the study. The study focuses on the sanctions against Iran in 2012 in response to its nuclear programme and against Russia following the violent annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Analysing Prices, Prosperity and Trade Flows

"In our analyses, we focused on the economic effects of sanctions, for example on prices and prosperity in the target country, as well as on trade flows," says Joschka Wanner, Junior Professor of Quantitative International and Environmental Economics at Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg (JMU), describing the approach. As a first step, the team analysed the extent to which these parameters have changed as a result of the sanctions.

In fact, the calculations for Iran show a real decline in gross domestic product of 1.9 per cent as a result of the sanctions. For Russia, the figure is 1.44 per cent - based on the sanctions from 2014. The sanctions following the attack on Ukraine do not yet play a role in this study. "1.4 or 1.9 per cent may not sound like much. However, from an economic perspective, this is a full-blown recession," says Wanner.

Maximum Sanction Potential not Reached

The group compared these real developments with the maximum potential of the sanctions under various conditions - either by including more countries in the sanctions or by extending them to all goods. "According to our calculations, in the case of Iran, the current coalition achieves around 39 per cent of what would be possible in terms of a decline in gross domestic product - compared to the case in which all countries participate in the sanctions," explains Wanner. For Russia, this figure is just under 58 per cent.

These figures are partly even more drastic if the current scenario is compared with the case in which the sanctions apply to all goods, i.e. there are no more exceptions. In this case, the current coalition only achieves 47 per cent of the possible decline in GDP for Iran. And 16 per cent for Russia.

High Costs for Some Stakeholders

When sanctions are imposed, it is not only the sanctioned countries that suffer - the study also shows this. However, there are major differences: "While larger economies such as the USA, Japan and Germany get off relatively lightly, smaller countries such as Malta, Estonia and Latvia suffer relatively drastic consequences," explains Wanner. This should come as no surprise: if a small country like Latvia restricts trade with its large neighbour Russia, this will inevitably have a greater impact than in the USA or Canada.

As a consequence, this means that Small countries pay a high price in this case, while the effects of their participation in the sanctions are only reflected in a small loss of welfare for Russia. The study also shows how things could be better: "Instead of the small countries, other states would have to join the coalition. Then the sanctions would have much greater consequences," explains Wanner.

In the case of sanctions against Russia, the economists have calculated that the participation of China, Vietnam, Belarus, Turkey and South Korea in particular would drastically increase the potential for sanctions. This would rise from 58 per cent under the current coalition to 71 per cent - simply by China joining the sanctions coalition.

Transfer Payments for Particularly Affected Countries

Of course, it is unlikely that China will join a coalition of Western states against Russia. So what could the coalition do to ensure that as many countries as possible side with it without suffering disproportionately large economic damage? "Financial transfers" is the research team's answer.

"Our results show that 591 million US dollars would have to be mobilised in connection with the sanctions against Iran and 4.8 billion US dollars in the case of Russia so that the members could compensate for their welfare losses due to the respective sanctions," the study states.

The largest contributor to this "compensation fund" would be the USA, whose combined transfers for both sanctions packages would amount to around 4.4 billion US dollars. They would be followed by the UK (770 million US dollars) and Canada (553 million US dollars).

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JOURNAL

Economic Policy

DOI

10.1093/epolic/eiae019 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Brothers in arms: the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes

 

Promise green hydrogen may not always be fulfilled

Green hydrogen often, but certainly not always, leads to CO2 gains

RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN

Green hydrogen often, but certainly not always, leads to CO2 gains. This claim is based on research published in Nature Energy by Kiane de Kleijne from Radboud University and Eindhoven University of Technology. “If you calculate the entire life cycle of green hydrogen production and transport, CO2 gains may be disappointing. However, if green hydrogen is produced from very clean electricity and locally, it can really help reduce emissions.”

It is thought that green hydrogen can make a major contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Dutch companies are currently investing in developing green hydrogen in countries where green power, needed to produce green hydrogen, can be easily generated, such as Namibia and Brazil. The EU is also aiming to produce 10 million tonnes of green hydrogen and importing another 10 million tonnes by 2030. “Green hydrogen has great potential as a technology due to its versatility and many applications. But unfortunately, I still foresee some bumps in the road”, says environmental scientist De Kleijne.

Entire life cycle

For over a thousand planned green hydrogen projects, De Kleijne calculated the greenhouse gas emissions associated with producing green hydrogen, including the production of, for example, solar panels, wind turbines and batteries to provide power, and the transport by pipeline or ship. “Green hydrogen is produced by splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen in an electrolyser using green electricity. You can then use that hydrogen as a raw material or fuel. Hydrogen made from natural gas is already widely used as a raw material, for example in the chemical industry to produce methanol and ammonia for fertiliser.”

The advantage of green hydrogen is that when splitting water, besides hydrogen, only oxygen is released and no CO2. “However, that does require large amounts of green power”, says the researcher. “You can only reduce emissions if you use green energy, such as wind or solar power. But even then, the emissions from manufacturing wind turbines and solar panels alone add up considerably. If you look at the entire life cycle in this way, green hydrogen often, but certainly not always, leads to CO2 gains.  CO2 gains are usually higher when using wind power rather than solar power. This will improve further in the future as more renewable energy will be used to manufacture the wind turbines, solar panels and steel for the electrolyser, for example.”

Hydrogen transport

Hydrogen production results in the lowest emissions in places where there is a lot of sun or wind, like Brazil or Africa. The downside is that this hydrogen must then be transported to Europe. That is technologically challenging and can create a lot of extra emissions. “Transporting green hydrogen over long distances contributes so much to the total emissions that much of the CO2 gains from production in distant, favourable locations is negated”, says De Kleijne. For short distances, transport emissions appear to be lowest for pipelines, while shipping liquid hydrogen is best for long distances.

Zero emissions

The key message, according to the scientist, is that we should not claim that technologies such as green hydrogen are completely emission-free. Current calculation methods that form the basis for regulations do not usually consider emissions from what needs to be manufactured to produce hydrogen, such als solar panels and electrolysers, or hydrogen leakage during transportation. In those cases, it might seem that green hydrogen does not produce many emissions, but that is far from the case. “By looking at emissions over the entire life cycle, we can make a better trade-off between technologies, and identify where improvements can be made in the chain. Furthermore, we can ask ourselves: what is important to produce in the Netherlands and Europe? And when might it be better to move an industry to somewhere else in the world?”

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JOURNAL

Nature Energy

DOI

10.1038/s41560-024-01563-1 

ARTICLE TITLE

'Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions of green hydrogen production and transport'

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

21-Jun-2024