Global Sumud Flotilla Set to Break Israel Blockade of Gaza

Ana Vračar | 02 Sep 2025

The first vessels of the Global Sumud Flotilla are setting sail in the largest effort yet to break Israel’s sea blockade of Gaza.

The Madleen before departure. Source: Tan Safi/Freedom Flotilla Coalition

Thousands of people gathered in Barcelona on Sunday, August 31, to launch the first vessels of the Global Sumud Flotilla, the largest attempt yet to break Israel’s illegal blockade of Gaza by sea. Around 50 boats, carrying civilian crews and humanitarian supplies for the people of Palestine, are expected to depart in the first week of September from ports in the Mediterranean.

Among those present at the flotilla’s launch were well-known figures such as actor Liam Cunningham and activist Greta Thunberg; but the majority of the crews are seafarers, trade unionists, nurses, journalists, and ordinary people who have decided to act where their governments have failed. For 23 months of genocide, Western governments have remained complicit in Israeli war crimes despite overwhelming grassroots support for Palestine.

On the same day as the flotilla’s launch, Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir presented a plan to the Israeli cabinet on how to “stop” the massive convoy. One element of the plan is to designate the flotilla’s civilian crew as terrorists, paving the way for their detention in high-security prisons. According to Israeli media, Ben-Gvir said that “after spending weeks in detention under harsh conditions, supporters of terror would think twice before attempting another such flotilla.”

His statement got a swift response. The Italian union Unione Sindacale di Base (USB), whose dockworker José Nivoi is among those traveling with the flotilla, rejected the threats. “The Israeli minister’s threats to the activists of the Global Sumud Flotilla are a serious attempt at intimidation and proof of the criminal nature of the Israeli government,” USB wrote. “To him, we say: your words won’t stop us, they only push us to intensify our efforts.”

USB members warned that if Israeli forces threaten or block the ships, as they have done with the Freedom Flotilla’s Madleen and Handala, they would spark a wave of blockades of supplies directed to Israel, building on previous dockworkers’ refusals to load military cargo. “Workers can play a decisive role in influencing events and acting as spokespeople for the widespread support this courageous initiative [the Global Sumud Flotilla] enjoys,” USB said. “By blocking ships and planes carrying weapons to war zones, they have earned a fundamental role and every right to challenge rearmament policies and their consequences on our lives.”

Left and progressive forces continue support for Sumud Flotilla

Support for the flotilla and its crew has also come from Italian left party Potere al Popolo. Spokesperson Marta Collot praised the dockworkers, writing on social media: “The courage of the dockworkers who first block the weapons and then take the front line in helping the Palestinian people is an example to us all. It shows what solidarity between peoples means against those who want us to remain silent and suffer their policies of war.”

Messages of solidarity have arrived from beyond Europe as well. The International Peoples’ Assembly (IPA) stated it stood in solidarity with the Sumud Flotilla despite threats, stating: “To stand with Gaza is not a crime – it is to stand with life, dignity, and freedom! We stand with the flotillas, with the people of Gaza, and with the global struggle to break the siege.”

Similarly, UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese has encouraged the flotilla, and Colombian President Gustavo Petro sent a letter to the crews expressing strong support. “I have said it before, and I repeat it today: if Palestine dies, all of humanity dies with it. Therefore, every action opposing extermination, every voice that defies indifference, is an act of life,” Petro wrote.

“You have chosen the most difficult and perilous path: that of action in the face of brutal violence. And I say to you: you are not alone,” he added. “And when you reach the waters near Gaza, you will feel that traveling beside you is the voice of millions who believe that peace is not a utopia, but an obligation.”

Courtesy: Peoples Dispatch 

China denies conspiring with North Korea, Russia against US

 TRUMP IS A SNOWFLAKE 

AFP 

September 4, 2025 

China’s President Xi Jinping (C), North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un (R) and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (L) arrive for a reception in the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, September 3. — AFP

China defended on Thursday its decision to invite the leaders of Russia and North Korea to World War II commemorations, which President Donald Trump accused them of using to conspire against the United States.

Trump wrote a testy Truth Social post addressing his Chinese counterpart after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin flanked Xi Jinping at a massive parade in Beijing showcasing Chinese military hardware.

“Give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America,” Trump wrote.

Asked about Trump’s post, Beijing’s foreign ministry said on Thursday “foreign guests” had been invited to commemorate 80 years since the end of World War II.

“It is to work together with peace-loving countries and peoples to remember history, cherish the memory of the martyrs, cherish peace, and create the future,” spokesman Guo Jiakun told reporters.

“China’s development of diplomatic relations with any country is never directed against any third party,” he said.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, said on Wednesday it thought Trump’s allegation was “not without irony”.

Beijing had much stronger words for the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas, who also criticised the parade.

Kallas said on Wednesday that Xi, Putin and Kim appearing together was part of efforts to build an anti-Western “new world order” and was “a direct challenge to the international system built on rules”.

“The remarks made by a certain EU official are full of ideological bias, lack basic historical knowledge, and blatantly stir up confrontation and conflict,” Guo said on Thursday.

“Such statements are profoundly misguided and utterly irresponsible,” he said, adding, “We hope that those people will abandon their frog-in-the-well prejudice and arrogance … and do more things that are conducive to world peace and stability and China-Europe relations. “

CONTRACEPTION

Bangladesh lessons

Clearly, Bangladesh learnt much while we unlearnt.

Ijaz Nabi

August 31, 2025

DAWN

ISHAQ Dar’s visit to Dhaka promises a reset in our relationship with Bangladesh. This is a welcome development. We would do well to enter this new phase of the relationship with some humility. We may have improved our international profile in defence capability, but economically there is still much to be done — and indeed learnt from Bangladesh. A critical area for emulation is population management. A recent meeting of experts chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif clearly brought home the threat posed by rapid population growth. It was agreed that it is akin to running fast to stay in the same place, and that we need to get off this awful treadmill as soon as possible.

Several years ago, Dr Zafarullah Chowdhry, who was to Bangladesh health what Prof Muhammad Yunus is to microfinance, was invited to Lahore by then chief minister Shehbaz Sharif. In his speech, Dr Chowdhry said that Bangladesh had benefited from Ayub Khan’s family planning programme. With half our population growth now, clearly Bangladesh learnt much while we unlearnt.

Population growth is determined by the fertility rate (the number of children born to a woman of child-bearing age) which, in turn, is driven by the contraceptive prevalence rate. Thus, the desire to have fewer children manifests itself in the desire to use contraceptives. With twice Bangladesh’s population growth, our contraceptive prevalence rate is half. Programmes to manage population growth thus have to focus on increasing the contraceptive prevalence rate.

Fertility rate is the highest (contraceptive prevalence rate the lowest) among relatively low-income women, as children are future breadwinners. Thus, if infant mortality is high, more children will help ensure that some survive. If stunting is high because of malnutrition, poor cognitive skills and a low future income stream, households will want more children. Both these factors will matter more if women do not work. On all these counts, we measure poorly against Bangladesh.

Reducing the demand for children requi­res the provinces to get their act together since nearly all of the policy levers affecting infant mortality and stunting are in their remit. And yet, we have designed the National Finance Commission award such that the population size determines the provincial share in the divisible pool. This in­­centivises provinces to have more children. The provinces say all the right things about population growth but have no real commitment to actually do something about it.

Reduced demand for children shows up in fewer births if there is an adequate supply and take-up of contraceptives. Provin­cial population programmes have focused on supplying contraceptives but there is a widespread view that government clinics are failing in this. They are hard to reach, and given the social norms governing sexual practices, women of child-bearing age do not wish to be seen looking for them. This results in the poor take-up of contraceptives, ie, there is an unmet demand.

Punjab tried a different approach to address the unmet demand for contraceptives. Then chief minister Shehbaz Sharif set up, under Section 42 of the Companies Ordinance, the Punjab Population Innovation Fund (PPIF). It was placed under the direction of an independent board that worked with private clinics (in close proximity to households) to provide family planning services. A pilot in district Rahim Yar Khan was designed to motivate low-income women of child-bearing age, identified using the BISP database. A voucher was given to defray the cost of travel to private family clinics. The pilot was evaluated to show an impressive increase in the use of contraceptives. Further evaluation by the World Bank has now re­­su­lted in the prog­r­a­m­me being replica­ted all over Pun­jab. It should be scaled up countrywide.

The PPIF programme was designed in light of evidence of an unmet demand for contraceptives, as seen in the extraordinarily high incidence of abortions in Punjab that government clinics were not addressing. This demand will increase manifold if the provinces address infant mortality and stunting, the other determinants of the demand for children. Increased participation of women in the labour force, by pursuing labour-intensive export-led growth as Bangladesh did, will also help enormously in lowering the fertility rate.

It is hard to predict where the recent public discussion on more provinces will go, but it does provide an opportunity to address the perverse incentives in the NFC award, especially those regarding population growth. As to religious opposition to population planning, Dr Chowdhry had the best answer: “We gave employment to daughters of mosque maulvis in the population programmes and they became supporters.”

The writer is executive director, CDPR, and former dean and professor of economics, Lums.

Published in Dawn, August 31st, 2025

PAKISTAN

Impending crises

OPINION

Dr Niaz Murtaza 

September 2, 2025 

DAWN

WE may be among the most crisis-prone nations globally. In this writer’s view, we have faced nearly 30 crises since 1990 or one every 14 months on average. This includes political crises when the ruling set-up or its head were removed in contentious circumstances (seven); economic crunches that led us to the IMF (eight); natural and health-related calamities like earthquakes, floods and Covid-19 (four); internal or external security challenges (five) and crises due to street unrest (five).

This sorry status arises from the state’s predatory, security and autocratic bent. The economic crises arise as our predatory rulers induce fickle growth via high twin deficits. The external security crises reflect the hold of hawks on both sides of our eastern border. The internal challenges come from the gripes of excluded ethnicities or our tolerance in the past of violent groups to gain a regional security edge. The political crises and street unrests relate mainly to establishment feuds with politicians. Natural crises cause excessive harm as our rulers eschew disaster management. Economic progress requires peace and economic stability, which need political stability, which, in turn, requires political legitimacy. So, a prolonged loss of political legitimacy lies at the root of all our crises.

The longest crisis-free phase after 1990 was 2001-2005 when a military-led set-up induced questionable stability via fickle US aid and repression. But it only delayed and magnified the inevitable crises that erupted during our first polycrisis from 2005-08. We witnessed the 2005 earthquake, the start of Baloch and TTP violence, Benazir Bhutto’s death and street unrest, and the 2007-08 economic crisis the set-up caused. They led to its fall despite its macho aura of invincibility and debatable claims of progress.


Flawed policies are fomenting future trouble.

The Baloch and TTP-linked crises have raged on since then. The frequency of crises has gone up. The PPP inherited the 2007-08 economic crisis that was boosted by the 2008 global recession. It witnessed the mega floods of 2010 and the removal of its prime minister in 2012. Its government caused an economic crisis in 2013. The PML-N inherited the economic crisis, faced the PTI dharna in 2014, lost its prime minister in 2017 to court decisions, and caused an economic crisis itself in 2018. The PTI inherited the problems, faced Covid-19 in 2020, caused an economic crisis in 2021 and saw its prime minister removed through a no-trust vote in 2022. This started our second polycrisis with floods in 2022, mismanaged economic crisis, PTI protests till 2024, spikes in militant violence and war with India in 2025.

Given the internal boost from the war, resurgent ties with the US and (fickle) economic stability, this hybrid set-up is claiming stability and invincibility. But Pakistan is the humbling ground of many a haughty regime that exuded sham invincibility. In trying to escape the strong pull of the root causes of crises, it faces the same insoluble puzzle as past set-ups — achieving elusive stability. Repression may only delay the inevitable and cause a bigger polycrisis.

Flawed policies are already fomenting future trouble. The failure to fix our perennial external deficits may cause an economic crisis as growth picks up. Given the government’s inability to fix the deeper causes of insecurity, our three external and local security foes may jointly try to inflict more violence. If civilians are supposed to forego democratic freedoms in order to fortify the ‘same page’, it may, instead, lead to cracks and divisions in the regime, ie, establishment-civilian, the PPP-PML-N, intra-PML-N, and cause a political crisis. Gre­ater autocracy may spark national ang­er against oppr­es­sive policies, which may ignite Arab Spring-type prote­sts. Natural crises remain a wildcard given the neglect of disaster control.

So, despite the rulers’ incumbency plans, based on dubious assumptions of durable stability, we may be an external shock away from an economic crisis, a terrorist attack away from war, a spark away from street unrest, a civilian refusal away from a political crisis and a big monsoon season away from a natural crisis. Such events may quickly negate the desperate attempts to exude an aura of invincibility that set-ups with low legitimacy need badly and that cause their fall.

A crisis-weary nation can see an end to the recurrent crises only through political legitimacy based on fair polls and civilian sway. Otherwise, with external, economic, demographic, security and natural threats set to increase in the coming decades, we may become even more crisis-prone.

The writer has a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, in political economy and 25 years of grassroots to senior-level experiences across 50 countries.

murtazaniaz@yahoo.com
X: @NiazMurtaza2

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025

What holds Pakistan back?

A narrow elite, resistant to reform, prioritises its own interests over that of the people.

Maleeha Lodhi

September 1, 2025

DAWN
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.


PAKISTAN is one of the most over-diagnosed countries in the world. It has long been apparent what needs to be done for the country to achieve its promising potential. Its problems are well known. So are its solutions. But why have these solutions never been applied? Why has little been done to address the structural problems? Why have much-needed economic, educational and institutional reforms never been implemented? What is the impediment? What holds Pakistan back? What blocks meaningful progress?

Two words may answer these questions. Elite capture. Elite control of state power and of much of the country’s resources which enable overlapping elites to influence governance, politics and the economy as well as receive unwarranted benefits from such control — all at the expense of the public and without its consent.

A narrow, oligarchic elite has dominated the country’s politics and protected its interests with scant regard for societal welfare. A few hundred families have dominated virtually all of Pakistan’s legislatures, including the present ones, maintaining their grip on power through generations. Dynastic politics is emblematic of this. Party and electoral politics continues to be dominated by wealthy families, clans and networks of regional and local ‘influentials’. Even those from non-elite backgrounds are co-opted into elite culture.

This has remained largely unchanged despite economic and social changes of recent decades that have gradually been transforming the national landscape. These changes include greater urbanisation, rise of a larger middle class, shift in the economic centre of gravity from the countryside to urban centres, emergence of a diverse civil society and a more ‘connected’ and informed citizenry, thanks to the spread of technology. But politics and the political system have yet to be aligned with such changes. Instead, the old mould of control by entrenched elites continues. Politics remains a competition and power struggle among the political elite. Because power not purpose drives such politics it is bereft of ideas or any vision for the future.

This power elite has resisted meaningful reform — whether land reform, tax reform or reforms in governance. It has ‘rentier’ characteristics: using access to public office as a means of leveraging state resources to transfer wealth and acquire unearned income.

Elite capture has meant governance challenges have multiplied over the years, leaving the country with daunting problems of state solvency, security and mounting energy and water shortages.

Elite dominance is obviously not unique to Pakistan. It is a phenomenon elsewhere too. Elites are found in all societies, and countries everywhere are run by them. But it depends on what kind of elites they are and the nature of elite capture — whether it helps or hinders societies and economies to grow and prosperity to be shared. The extent to which privileged elites control politics, governance and the economy in Pakistan makes it distinctive. So does the way this prevents mobility and perpetuates the relatively limited pool of decision-makers. Another distinct characteristic is the intersection and symbiotic relationship between political and military elites.

The military whose social background is increasingly middle or lower middle class often counterposes itself to the traditional political elite as a meritocratic institution that offers social mobility and functions on the basis of professionalism, which it does. But the alliances it forges are with the very political elite it criticises and sees as self-serving, venal and inept. The status quo interests of both are what bind them together. Both use patron-client relationships to reinforce their ascendancy and protect their privileged position.

There has been extensive discussion in the country about the politics and economics of elite capture and its consequences. UNDP’s National Human Development Report of 2021 found that economic privileges given to Pakistan’s elite groups, including the political class, corporate sector, feudal landlords and the military amounted to around $17. 4 billion or about six per cent of GDP. Among the stark, deep-rooted inequalities identified by the report are that the richest 20pc own almost 50pc of the country’s income while the landed elite which constitutes 1.1pc of the population owns 22pc of cultivable farmland. The report notes that both the urban and rural rich have strong representation in parliament. Powerful groups, it says, capture much more than their fair share through favourable policies and structural discrimination.

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics has conducted extensive research on elite capture in different areas and its implications, while urging a nuanced debate on this. Its bimonthly publication of August/ September 2024 was dedicated entirely to this, with rich contributions from economists and other social scientists. Among PIDE’s research findings are that elite capture perpetuates/ widens inequality, constrains economic growth, limits the development of human capital, leads to lack of economic productivity and impedes social mobility. It produces substantial losses to the economy and results in stagnation. Poor governance is inescapable when policy decisions are made to further the interests of the elite rather than the public.

Rosita Armytage’s book, Big Capital in an Unequal World: The Micropolitics of Wealth in Pakistan (2020), alsogenerated much debate on elite capture.It profiled Pakistan’s business and industrial elite and offered insights into its ‘uppermost’ elite, and its networks and methods that help to maintain its position and reinforce inequality. The author finds Pakistan a compelling case of elite power, which, like many developing countries, is run by an oligarchy of economic and political interests and is afflicted by high levels of instability. This instability is encouraged by powerful families that benefit from it through the ‘culture of exemptions’, which enables members of the elite to buttress their positions and thwart competition. The book argues that major wealth in the country is concentrated among a limited number of families that dominate the principal political parties and leading firms and have family links with senior echelons of the military.

Amply clear from all of this is that unless public welfare, not the interests of a narrow, privileged elite, becomes central to the enterprise of governance, Pakistan cannot achieve its full po­t­ential. This choice, more than anything else, will determine the country’s fate and fortunes.

Published in Dawn, September 1st, 2025

OPINION

Chinese checkers

Mahir Ali 

September 3, 2025

DAWN

AFICIONADOS of spectacular martial displays will no doubt find today’s military parade in Beijing considerably more impressive than the one that marked 250 years of the US Army (as well as Donald Trump’s birthday) in Washington not too long ago.

Narendra Modi won’t be there, perhaps because saluting China’s military prowess just five years after border clashes, and barely four months after Chinese technology gave Pakistan an edge in the post-Pahalgam hostilities, would not have played well at home. But at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin over the weekend, he was holding hands with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on what was the Indian prime minister’s first visit to China in seven years.

Apart from talks with Xi, he spent more than 45 minutes in Putin’s limousine. Obviously, we don’t know what they discussed. There was never much of a chance that Modi (if he was so inclined) could sway the Russian president from his aggression against Ukraine. The Chinese leader, meanwhile, held out the prospect of partnership in place of rivalry, and Modi expressed no disagreement.

This could be notched up as yet another triumph for the first seven months of Trump’s presidency. The non-alignment that India’s first PM judiciously favoured has left its marks, notwithstanding all of the relatively recent hostility against ‘Nehruvian socialism’.

While maintaining cordial ties with three US administrations, Jawaharlal Nehru was also attached to the idea of friendship with the Soviet Union and China. There have been fractures over the decades with Washington and Beijing, but the Moscow connection has survived the demise of the USSR.

China knows how to play the long game.

Russia, however, wasn’t a key source of crude oil until the sanctions following its attack on Ukraine. The irony is that until last year the US pretty much encouraged India to purchase Russian crude to maintain oil prices, and had no objection to the refined product being sold on to Europe or America, so that they could claim they weren’t buying it from Russia. The largest refinery belongs to Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, which helps to explain why a sudden halt to Russian imports would be a non-starter for the crony capitalism that has helped to sustain the BJP regime.

Previous US presidents wooed India as a counter-balance to China, as part of a strategy that has only persuaded the latter to extend its military prowess. Trump presumably knows that China imports more Russian crude than India, yet his aides have described the Ukraine conflict as ‘Modi’s war’ and derided India as a ‘laundromat’ for Russia. That’s absurd, given that Moscow would be disinclined to shift its aggressive stance as long as Beijing and Delhi are on board. The Ukraine war would not screech to a halt if India stopped purchasing Russian oil.

It might be different if China withdrew its support from Russia, but that too is unlikely. Inadvertently or otherwise, the US has facilitated rapprochement between India and China. ‘Hindi-Cheeni bhai bhai’ might remain a historical memory, but the South Asian region would no doubt benefit from unexpected bonhomie between the world’s two most populous powers. The days of ‘Howdy Modi’ and ‘Namaste Trump’ seem to be long gone.

Around the time of Trump’s second inauguration, a global poll indicated that India was among the very few Global South nations that saw his return to power as positive. Opinions have been shifting, though, and even the 52 per cent of Indians who approved of Trumpianism in June might be differently inclined after the 50pc tariffs threatening to strangle India’s economy.

That’s yet an­­ot­her obstacle in the path of India’s economic illusions, and it re­­m­ains to be seen whe­ther a prospective partnership with China mi­­ght prove transformative. But Modi is also struggling domestically, after the disappointing last election and credible accusations of fraud. That may seem Trumpian in some ways, but the US and India are very different entities.

Both Modi and Trump benefit from largely ineffectual oppositions. That might change, and the aftermath could remain troublesome. It must be said, though, that Modi’s reported refusal to chat with Trump over the phone was more assertive than Pakistan’s deference to Washington. Neither side has offered a credible explanation for why the war stopped. Whatever the details, the outcome stretches beyond regional circumstances.

China’s transcendence might be a long time coming, but, unlike Trump, Xi knows how to play the long game. Could a better world order emerge?

It’s not impossible, but the scant mention in the Tianjin agenda of the genocide in Gaza and beyond serves as yet another reminder that trade trumps transgressions against human rights. China’s trajectory as a US rival remains shrouded in mystery, but Trump might solve it sooner than we expect.

mahir.dawn@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2025

Multilateral world order

Zahid Hussain 

 September 3, 2025 
DAWN
The writer is an author and journalist.

IT was the largest gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with leaders of Eurasian nations seeking to establish a more just and equitable multilateral system as an alternative to a crumbling West-dominated world order. The recently concluded SCO summit in the Chinese city of Tianjin brought together countries with competing interests in times of great turmoil in global governance.

Initially formed as a security cooperation group over two decades ago, the SCO has evolved into a formidable forum for trade and economic development. Described as ‘SCO-Plus’, the conference was attended by more than 20 heads of state and government, as well as leaders of international organisations. The Tianjin summit reinforced China’s leading role in the emerging multilateral international order.

In his speech, President Xi Jinping called for “equal and orderly multipolarisation”. The Chinese leader stressed the need for the organisation to work towards a “more just and equitable global governance system” and urged regional leaders to shun a “Cold War mentality”.

It was pointed out that member states faced complicated security and development challenges in a “chaotic and intertwined” world. These remarks set the tone of the conference. His speech indicated China’s emphasis on geo-economics and connectivity.

As per media reports, “The organisation covers approximately 24 per cent of global land area and 42pc of the world’s population, with member states accounting for roughly one-quarter of global GDP and trade increasing nearly 100-fold in two decades.” China’s trade with SCO members, observers and dialogue partners reportedly totalled $890 billion in 2024. Donald Trump’s reckless trade war has massively increased SCO’s potential, as the bloc provides an alternative to America’s economic domination.

The Tianjin summit reinforced China’s leading role in the emerging international order.

The conference also brought the leaders of Pakistan and India face-to-face for the first time after their four-day conflict in May that had pushed the two nuclear-armed nations close to a wider conflagration. The tension was palpable with the two leaders not even shaking hands, let alone any possibility of meeting on the sidelines. Pakistan’s offer for a dialogue on all disputed matters between the two countries had gone unheeded by the Indian prime minister.

Without taking names, both leaders accused the other of perpetrating terrorist activities in their respective countries. New Delhi has hardened its position and does not want any bilateral talks with Islamabad after it was humiliated during its military action against Pakistan. India’s belligerence remains the main source of tension, hampering regional economic and trade cooperation. There seems to be no change in its stance despite foreign policy setbacks.

However, the conference provided an opportunity for China and India to ease the tensions in their relationship. It was the first trip of the Indian prime minister to China in seven years. Relations between the world’s two most populous nations remained strained after bloody border clashes in 2019 following India’s unilateral and illegal decision to annex the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir and declare Ladakh as federal territory.

Although a ceasefire has been in place for some time, other issues have continued to strain their relationship. India has been part of a US-led anti-China coalition in the Indo-Pacific region. But the latest dispute with the Trump administration on trade tariffs seems to have forced India to mend fences with China. Interestingly, the 50 per cent tariff on exports to the US had come into force just before the summit. Once America’s so-called strategic ally, India now faces some of the highest tariffs imposed by the US. This factor, together with political reasons, has caused relations to sour between Washington and Delhi.

Although the Chinese and Indian leaders agreed they were not “rivals but partners in development”, unresolved issues remain between them, which can widen the existing trust deficit. These include the border dispute, which the Chinese president indicated should be put aside to focus on improved trade and economic relations.

Interestingly, despite their strained relations over the past years, trade between the two countries in 2024-2025 totalled $118bn, though with India’s trade deficit with China reaching $99.2bn.

The thaw in their relations has already resulted in the resumption of direct flights between the two countries and improved business environment. But China’s strategic relations with Pakistan continue to cast a shadow over any further breakthrough.

The summit also reinforced Russia’s return to the global stage after being ostracised by the West for invading Ukraine. President Putin blamed the West for triggering the war. The Russian president has also been invited to the military parade in Beijing this week to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War (World War II) and the founding of the United Nations. “It is a milestone prompting us to remember the past and create a better future together,” declared President Xi.

The gathering of leaders and observers from across Eurasia reflected the emerging alignment in the shifting sands of regional geopolitics. The bloc represents the emerging power of the Global South, which is challenging the unjust Western international global order.

The Tianjin Declaration, issued after the two-day parleys, reaffirmed the commitment to sustainable international peace and called for joint efforts to counter traditional and new security challenges. While resolving to fight against terrorism, separatism and extremism, the conference recognised the leading role of sovereign states and their competent authorities in countering terrorist and extremist threats.

The conference also adopted a 10-year SCO Development Strategy, which “defines the priority tasks and main directions for deepening multifaceted cooperation in the interests of ensuring peace and stability, development and prosperity in the SCO space”.

After the summit concluded, President Xi had a bilateral meeting with Pakistan’s prime minister and his delegation in Beijing, reaffirming the strategic and economic partnership between the two countries. They also agreed to initiate the second phase of CPEC. The SCO provides a great opportunity for Pakistan’s economic development.

i zhussain100@yahoo.com

X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2025

To dump West, embrace BRICS

India has 800m on food dole, signalling the contradiction between its right-wing government shored up by big money and people’s priorities.

Jawed Naqvi 

September 2, 2025
DAWN

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.


BY habit, the choreographed Indian crowd began to chant “Modi Modi” at an event for the Indian prime minister’s two-day visit to China. The Chinese hosts, on the other hand, greeted him with a knowledgeable display of Indian classical music, something Indians would struggle to reciprocate if it ever came to that. There’s a trade deficit, and there’s evidently a cultural deficit too. Three sari-clad Chinese women performed Vande Mataram, an Indian nationalist favourite, in Rag Desh on the sitar and santoor as the third kept rhythm on the tabla. But there are more urgent reasons than China’s showcasing its soft power to woo a pro-America Narendra Modi, on an emotional rebound, to make a compelling case for BRICS. Dumping the Western capitalist model that has spawned wars and exploitative sanctions is a need that preceded the dismantling of the USSR.

Western perfidy targets friend and foe alike if business interests clash. The malaise is older than Donald Trump. Among my early observations in this regard was the West’s betrayal of Kuwait before Saddam Hussein was hustled into completing the job. 

The story goes back to the 1987 stock market crash when the Thatcher government was in the process of selling its remaining 31.5 per cent stake in BP. The crash threatened to derail this massive sale, potentially costing the treasury billions. The Kuwait Investment Office, the investment arm of the Kuwaiti sovereign wealth fund, stepped in to bail out the UK. It began purchasing BP shares on the open market. Initially, the UK government was pleased. The KIO’s buying provided crucial support to the BP share price, helping to ensure the success of the government’s own share sale. In a short time, the KIO had acquired a 21.6pc stake in BP, making it by far the largest shareholder. The UK government’s stake was now zero.

Suddenly, Margaret Thatcher’s government was uncomfortable with a controlling stake being held by a foreign government, even a friendly one. A 21.6pc stake gave Kuwait significant power and the idea of a major British icon falling under effective control of an OPEC member state was politically toxic, even for a pro-market government like Thatcher’s.

Thatcher formally instructed the KIO to reduce its holding. They were ordered to sell down their stake to no more than 9.9pc. The government made it clear that if Kuwait did not comply voluntarily, it would use its legal and regulatory powers to force the issue, potentially damaging diplomatic relations and Kuwait’s other investments in the UK. Kuwait, a close ally that relied on Western protection, ultimately complied to maintain good relations.

What happened with Pakistan’s prestigious BCCI bank was not entirely dissimilar. The CIA acknowledged using the major international bank as a conduit to secretly fund the Afghan mujahideen. The job done, the bank turned into an object of envy for the West. To quote Shakespeare, the West was mocking the very meat it had fed upon. BCCI was not the cleanest bank and lent itself to narratives of corruption, fraud, drug peddling and money laundering. But here’s the rub. Major Western banks have paid billions in penalties for knowingly laundering drug money. They never had to shut down.

A US Senate investigation found that a Western bank had systemically laundered at least $881 million for Mexican and Colombian drug cartels over years. The bank moved bulk cash from its Mexican subsidiary to the US, bypassing money laundering controls. The concerned bank avoided criminal prosecution and paid a $1.9bn fine, a sum widely criticised as a ‘slap on the wrist’ given the scale of the crimes and the bank’s profits. In the 2008 financial crisis and mortgage-backed securities fraud, multiple American banks paid tens of billions in penalties for packaging and selling toxic mortgage-backed securities they knew were likely to fail, while simultaneously betting against them. This fraud triggered the global financial crisis. But they were politically protected unlike Pakistan’s bank. The BCCI had dared to challenge Western monopoly and suffered for it. BCCI was the first truly major global bank from the developing world. Its rapid growth, aggressive strategy, and ability to woo clients away from traditional Western banks caused resentment and unease. This meant it had fewer powerful friends in the financial capitals of London and New York to defend it when trouble started.

In a similar vein, the ongoing targeting of Huawei and other prominent Chinese tech firms like ZTE, TikTok and Xiaomi is indeed a central piece of this pattern. Adding Huawei to the analysis of the Indian situation reveals a spectrum of tactics used by Western powers, primarily the US, when dealing with rising non-Western competitors.

The botched efforts that have been made to dismantle states like Russia, Venezuela and Iran to lay them open to Western carpetbaggers are well known. Much of the Middle East from Libya to Yemen has suffered for that and more.

Capitalism is driven by private profit and has congenital aversion to social welfare. India has 800m on food dole, signalling the contradiction between its right-wing government shored up by big money and people’s priorities.

Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani, two leading Indian tycoons, are in trouble with the US, one for alleged bribery to woo American investors, the other for defying Donald Trump’s fiat against importing Russian oil. The two led the pack of Gujarati businessmen in 2013 to nominate Modi as their prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 elections. Modi thanked them and did what he does best.

He saw Uttar Pradesh burst into a communal frenzy on election eve to give himself an easy ride to power. The Adani-Ambani crony conundrums are serious issues and Indians should address them with political power rather than leaving them open to Western manipulation. BRICS is just the platform to gear up for the fight, preferably with fewer Modi chants.

jawednaqvi@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025

PAKISTAN

Governing AI

Usama Khilji 

September 4, 2025 

DAWN

PAKISTAN’S National Artificial Intelligence Policy, 2025, was approved by the federal cabinet on July 31, 2025, as a six-pillar roadmap to build an AI ecosystem.

This is a welcome step considering the increasing use, application, availability and risks of AI in technology-related sectors, as well as the increased societal use of it. Whereas the policy outlines an ambitious plan related to AI in Pakistan, it can benefit with several additions, and the addressing of contextual realities including impact and risks that the plan does not acknowledge.

The AI policy created a National AI Fund (allocating 30 per cent of Ignite’s Research and Development fund), Centres of Excellence, an AI Council/Directorate, regulatory sandboxes and national compute/data infrastructure.

The policy prioritises sector pilots in health, education, agriculture and governance, plus public awareness. Targets include training up to one million professionals by 2030; 3,000 scholarships annually, paid internships and alignment with global standards on ethics, cybersecurity and data protection. Implementation will follow a master plan and action matrix overseen by the Ministry of Information Technology and Telecom.

The policymaking process was not inclusive, as a multi-stakeholder dialogue has not included cross-cutting segments of society, including environmentalists, civil society, digital rights experts, media and the healthcare and education sectors; and there is no transparency around the stakeholder engagement process.

Significantly, there is no legislative basis for taking these decisions, as no parliamentary debate (including in the IT committees) has taken place, other than the IT ministry formulating the policy through a nontransparent process.

For starters, the policy does not acknowledge the limitations in Pakistan’s digital infrastructure, including a jarring digital divide, which will impact the implementation of the AI policy equitably. For instance, there was a three-week mobile internet shutdown across Balochistan last month, and internet connectivity remains limited in several other parts of the country, including KP’s western districts.

The policy speaks of including AI in public school curricula, but thousands of schools across the country are devoid of functional computer labs. For instance, according to reports, 1,482 government-run schools in KP lack computer lab facilities. How then can AI be taught to students who do not even have access to computers?

Furthermore, the policy does not take into account the dynamic nature of AI and technology, and outlines no strategy on how curricula for AI in the education sector will be updated with changes in technology, something that may render earlier curricula obsolete.

The policy does not take into account the dynamic nature of AI and technology.

Whereas the policy mentions use of AI for the environment, it completely ignores the climate-related risks of AI data centres in Pakistan, which, besides being a water-scarce country is acutely vulnerable to the impact of climate change. A large data centre for AI can require up to 5m gallons of water per day — this is the daily amount needed for a town of around 50,000 people.

As Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, over 80pc of its population faces water scarcity. Therefore, any AI policy with proposals for local data centres should include a mandatory environmental impact assessment condition.

The AI policy includes plans for E-khidmat centres for public services, health, education, sanitation, energy, security and other government services through AI chatbots, smart reporting and centralised service delivery. This raises surveillance risks, especially in the face of the absence of a data protection regime. Further, overreliance on AI when people need assistance and interface with government officials will only mirror current portals and helplines where people never hear back.

There are significant rights implications of this policy, in particular relating to privacy rights and freedom of speech impacts. It is alarming that the policy has been formulated in the absence of a data protection regime in Pakistan as the Personal Data Protection Bill is yet to be passed; however, the AI policy refers to aspects of the bill despite the status of the law remaining unclear. If a strong data protection regime does not exist, it raises serious concern around privacy risks around the large language models that fuel AI systems.

Furthermore, the policy details how an AI directorate will be formed to provide regulatory guidelines to address “disinformation, data breaches and fake news”. It is necessary that such steps entail a robust and inclusive parliamentary process, as such language raises alarms related to freedom of expression.

The policy does not mention the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, 2016, which deals with issues such as disinformation and ‘fake news’ in its amended form as of February 2025, and the overlap that the work of this directorate may have with that of the Social Media Regulatory Authority that the Peca amendments proposed.

The Digital Rights Foundation in its analysis of the policy stresses the “serious questions around transparency, ethical safeguards and protecting marginalised communities from discrimination”, which is imperative considering the risks of discrimination that automated systems in AI pose. In the absence of provisions in the policy on human rights risk assessments, the human rights impact of AI systems in the country are likely to create new issues rather than address existing ones.

Relatedly, the policy includes proposals for special training programmes for women and persons with disabilities, but it does not address the expanded role AI is playing in technology-facilitated gender-based violence.

At an event on TFGBV, a Pakistani man noted that “previously men would throw acid at women to destroy their lives, but now men have to create an AI-generated video to destroy the life of a woman”. This shows the gendered risk that AI poses to Pakistani women and gender minorities in particular, and it should be reflected in the policy.

Lastly, whereas the AI policy addresses expanding AI systems in Pakistan and supporting innovation and education related to it, there need to be specific provisions around developing machine-learning models in languages most common in Pakistan so that reliance on foreign languages reduces and inclusive expansion of AI tools are available to speakers and readers of Urdu, Sindhi, Punjabi, Pashto, Seraiki, Balochi languages.

The writer is director of Bolo Bhi, an advocacy forum for digital rights.
X: @UsamaKhilji

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025

WATER WAR

Situationer: Why breaching is ‘not an option’ for Sindh

Mohammad Hussain Khan 

Published September 4, 2025 

DAWN

AS PUNJAB continues to use breaches to divert water from its overflowing rivers, Sindh may not be able to emulate this strategy due to its unique topography, with the minister concerned categorically ruling out this option.

Over the past week, authorities in Punjab have destroyed several embankments to save major cities from being inundated. Naturally, the Sindh government has been facing queries about whether a similar strategy will be deployed in the province.

The swollen eastern rivers of Ravi, Chenab, and Sutlej merge into the Indus River at Panjnad before entering Sindh, and the province faces a similar situation to the one it faced in September 2014.

The Indus River has already passed a medium and high flood through the Guddu and Sukkur barrages in July and August of this season.

Minister says Punjab’s strategy can’t be emulated downstream due to province’s peculiar topography

How much water will pass through Guddu now remains a guessing game, considering flow patterns at the barrage. The barrage passed a peak of 550,965 cusecs on Sept 1 — recorded at Trimmu first — from Punjab.

Officials remain unsure whether floodwaters from the Chenab would precede combined flows from the Ravi and Sutlej, which would accumulate at Panjnad before heading to Guddu.

With a discharge capacity of 865,000 cusecs against Trimmu’s 875,000, Panjnad is the second last destination before the tributaries merge into the mighty Indus.

Sindh Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro, who is stationed at the Sukkur Barrage to monitor floods, told Dawn that breaches were not an option.

“There is no option of breach in our minds,” he said, adding that Sindh’s topography tells a different story when it comes to such decisions.

“Gradient in Sindh’s lands is lower than the Indus River,” he argued, while asking people not to worry about any possible breaches. “I tell those putting this query that we can’t breach a dyke. It’s not an option,” he assured.

Peculiar gradient

Explaining this phenomenon, Tando Jam Sindh Agriculture University (SAU) Vice Chancellor Prof Dr Altaf Siyal said there were variables in the soil gradient in Punjab and Sindh and breaching a dyke was a different story for each province.

“A breach can be made on either side of the Indus. If it occurs on the right bank, the water will head westward because those pockets have large depressions. In case of a breach on the left bank, it will impact the Nara canal of Sukkur Barrage first before heading downstream,” Dr Siyal said.

A breach around Khairpur Mirs and Naushahro Feroze would send water to the river from the Qazi Ahmed side on the left bank of the Indus.

According to him, any breach on the right bank upstream of Sukkur will send water down to Manchhar Lake via the Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD)/Main Nara Valley Drain (MNVD).

“Manchhar Lake then allows the authorities to redirect water to the Indus if the river flows remain on the lower side,” he said, alluding to the 2010 super floods.

In 2010, a massive breach 60km downstream of Guddu displaced millions after the Tori Bund developed a fissure, affecting seven districts on the right bank. The water eventually ended up in the lake.

In 2022, heavy rainfall in the Kirthar Range inundated parts of the right bank districts, including Qambar-Shahdadkot, Larkana, Dadu, and Jamshoro. These flows entered the Indus after Manchhar had to be breached the same month at two locations.

A high-powered judicial commission was formed to probe the causes of the 2010 flood breaches at Tori and Molchand-Surjani at Kot Almo in Thatta, downstream of Kotri Barrage, on Aug 27, 2010.

The report mentioned that around 1.47MAF water was released from Tori and 70pc of the 150km on Begari Sindh Feeder, an off-taking channel of Guddu Barrage on its right side was destroyed.

The chief engineer of the Guddu barrage and his team, along with the irrigation secretary, were held responsible for negligence.

Discharges in Punjab

Mr Jam and Irrigation Secretary Zarif Khero also shared information about discharges recorded in Punjab, especially at Trimmu, Panjnad, Head Sidhnai over Ravi (with 157,580 cusecs discharge at 4pm Wednesday) and Sulemanki over Sutlej (122,736 cusecs). Chenab, in fact, passed a peak of 1,077,951 cusecs in the last week of August, which Sindh is now waiting for.

“Let’s see which peak reaches Guddu first. My hunch is that the time lag between barrages has increased,” he said.

Sutlej and Ravi are passing their peaks, too, and the water will head for Guddu while Indus water from Taunsa will also reach the first barrage in Sindh, adding to these discharges. Panjnad’s downstream flow was 217,447 cusecs at 6pm on Wednesday. These are the flows released from the Tarbela Dam built on the Indus.

Even the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) mentioned that 1.3m cusecs of water would reach Guddu Barrage, which has a capacity of 1.2m cusecs.

The irrigation secretary said that losses between the two reaches of the barrages needed to be factored in as well.

He also drew a parallel between this year and 2014’s Chenab flows. “A discharge of 947,000 cusecs downstream Khanki [over Chenab] on Sept 7 eventually turned out to be a flow of 453,570 cusecs at Panjnad on Sept 16 and 475,000 cusecs [inclusive of Indus flows] at Guddu on Sept 19.

He, however, assured that the government was prepared to deal with any situation involving a flow of 900,000 cusecs, considered a super flood.

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025

Kalabagh again

DAWN
Editorial

September 4, 2025 

KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur’s support for the dead Kalabagh dam project has stirred up a storm. His endorsement of the dam runs contrary to popular public opinion not just in Sindh and Balochistan but also in his own province.

Ostensibly contingent on addressing provincial reservations to the controversial hydropower project on the Indus, his support for the dam — opposed by the provincial assemblies of Sindh, KP and Balochistan in the not so distant past — has baffled his own party as well. PTI leaders from KP and Sindh quickly disowned his statements. Asad Qaiser said that Mr Gandapur’s statement did not reflect the party’s policy. “The party has always made it clear that there should not be any controversial project. At the moment, there is a need to strengthen the federation,” he said. Haleem Adil Sheikh called the proposal a “dead horse”, which the PTI never supported. The PPP, through Nisar Khuhro, reminded Mr Gandapur that three provinces had already closed the door on Kalabagh.

The irony, however, is that the PML-N’s government in Punjab — often viewed by other federating units as the force behind the project — found itself in rare agreement with Mr Gandapur, with its information minister rushing to countersign the CM’s reckless grandstanding on behalf of her party. It exposes deep provincial fault lines: what is seen as a necessity in Punjab is viewed as a sell-out by the other provinces.

Mr Gandapur’s support for the Kalabagh dam comes on the heels of a plea from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during a recent visit to flood-hit Narowal district, for a consensus on new water reservoirs to fight the challenges of climate change and deal with the recurring floods.

While the move to bring up Kalabagh dam again risks opening old wounds, the cry for new reservoirs underpins how deeply our power elites are stuck in old, redundant concepts. As if we needed it, the effort to revive a defunct project is proof that our rulers are not capable of thinking beyond brick-and-mortar solutions to our worsening climate challenges. Is this because of lack of imagination or due to the massive money involved in such schemes, or both?

Pakistan, which is among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to the impact of climate change, desperately needs solutions to its problems of water shortages and droughts, devastating floods, erosion of the Indus delta, which is displacing local communities, and so on. These issues cannot be resolved by stopping the river flows through dams.

At a time when Pakistan needs unity more than ever, with floods wreaking devastation in several parts of the country and an economy on the brink, it is crucial that our rulers started to think beyond brick-and-mortar structures — if, indeed, they want to solve our increasing climate-related challenges.

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025

PAKISTAN

New monsoon reality

Saima Hashim 

September 4, 2025

DAWN 

IN the mountains of South Asia, the monsoon once arrived like a marching band — broad, rhythmic and predictable. Today, however, it strikes with precision, dropping torrents of water on narrow valleys and towns while nearby areas stay dry. These ultra-intense downpours, commonly called ‘cloudbursts’, unleash more than 100mm of rain per hour over small catchments, turning a single street or hamlet into ground zero of destruction.

In August 2025, Buner in KP experienced such a storm: 150mm of rain fell in just an hour, unleashing flash floods and landslides that killed hundreds. Across the border, India’s Uttarkashi saw a cloudburst sweep away homes in Dharali, while another struck Kishtwar, displacing families and flattening infrastructure. These are not isolated accidents but part of a wider transformation of the South Asian monsoon, which is becoming less predictable and more violent.

The science is clear. Warmer air traps and carries more moisture, and as mountains force this moisture upward, it condenses and falls violently, creating what scientists describe as ‘rain bombs’. The IPCC confirms that heavy precipitation events are becoming more frequent across South Asia and will continue intensifying throughout this century. When such rain bombs coincide with glacier-melt season, the impact multiplies: river flows spike suddenly, flash flood risks surge and downstream communities face devastation.

The toll of these storms is profound. Houses, bridges, micro-hydels, orchards and entire markets can vanish in minutes, leaving settlements cut off from roads, power and communication. Pakistan’s catastrophic 2022 floods caused nearly $30 billion in damage, demonstrating how even localised cloudbursts can tip fragile mountain economies into long-term crisis. Environmentally, saturated slopes collapse, boulders crash downstream, river channels shift, forests are uprooted and vital water sources become contaminated, deepening health and food insecurity.


Urgent action is imperative.

Urgent action is therefore non-negotiable. The KP government must rigorously enforce the River Protection Ordinance of 2002, which prohibits construction within 200 feet (61 metres) of riverbanks and restricts development up to 1,500m in sensitive mountain zones. Recent ADB modelling for the Swat River basin reconfirmed that these buffers are not mere regulations but essential safeguards. Authorities must also densify rain-gauge networks, integrate radar with AI-based nowcasting, restrict construction on debris-flow fans and dry streambeds, and operationalise monsoon contingency plans with clear responsibilities. Investments should prioritise resilient infrastructure — larger culverts, debris racks, raised platforms and single-span bridges that can survive turbulent flows. Equally important is facilitating rapid access to international loss and damage finance, so recovery is swift and communities do not sink deeper into poverty.

Preparedness at the household and community level is equally critical. Families should map hazards such as unstable slopes and blocked gullies and keep go-bags ready with IDs, medicine, torches, power banks, dry rations and water purification tablets. Villages can link meteorological alerts to WhatsApp or SMS trees, identify safe muster points and teach members to avoid bridges or basements during cloudbursts. Preventive ac­­tions — clearing drains, securing vehic­­­les, installing gratings — can reduce los­­-ses. When storms strike, people should move laterally to higher ground if rumbling or falling boulders are heard, and cut electricity if water seeps indoors. After the event, all water should be treated as unsafe, the damage docum­e­nted, blockages rep­orted and slopes mo­­nitored for after­­shocks.

Precision in language matters. Not every heavy shower is a ‘cloudburst’. Mislabelling weakens early warnings and desensitises communities. True cloudbursts, like those in Buner or Dharali, are rare but catastrophic; distinguishing them from ordinary downpours ensures better communication, stronger preparedness and more credible risk messaging.

The new monsoon reality is stark: not gentle, season-long rainfall but violent, hyper-local downpours — weeks’ worth of water collapsing from the sky in a matter of hours. Each rain bomb can shatter homes, disrupt livelihood, and overwhelm fragile ecosystems. Yet resilience is possible. As Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai said, “It’s the little things citizens do. That’s what will make the difference. My little thing is planting trees.” Today, our collective little things — planning, preparing, protecting — become acts of survival. Afforestation, watershed protection and community vigilance remain among our strongest long-term defences against an unpredictable climate.

The writer has over 20 years of experience in environment and biodiversity conservation. She holds a PhD and post doctorate from Japan.

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025

Manmade disaster

Naseer Memon

September 2, 2025 

DAWN

INTENSE rainfall is not uncommon in our plains and mountains. Rainfall exceeding 200mm has occurred several times in every province of Pakistan. ‘Climate change’, ‘cloudburst’ and ‘urban flooding’ are only recent additions to our media lexicon. Flood disasters, landslides, furious hill torrent flows and terrible droughts have been causing loss of life and damage to property, crops and infrastructure for decades. However, a hysterical media and a clumsy social media have sparked paranoia. The cacophony they have raised has kept us from discussing the underlying causes of these disasters. Regurgitating climate change and cloudburst rhetoric will not prevent catastrophic events.

Three human-induced factors, in particular, have made the hydro-climatic events more intense. Rampant deforestation that has denuded mountains of their green cover, increased obstructions on waterways that impede natural flows and climate-insensitive infrastructure are the root cause of the havoc. August’s second half proved calamitous for the provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan. In one week, the number of casualties dwarfed the total toll of the previous five weeks.

The disaster in these areas did not result from a few abnormal downpours or landslides. Havoc was being nurtured in the belly of the mountains for decades. Malakand, famous for its dense forests, is now infamous for its menacing pace of illegal deforestation. The Swat valley has several areas where deforestation takes place. The massive logging in Bahrain, Madyan, Kalam, Matta, Malam Jabba, Gabin Jabba and other areas is no secret. The woodlots policy has been blatantly abused in these areas. A news report last year revealed that up to 15 to 20 timber-loaded trucks were being transported to Punjab every day. Forests are a natural glue that protect mountains from fragmentation and abrasion. As forest cover thins out, the mountains are exposed to gushing flows. When natural barriers are removed, these flows attain a ferocious velocity that erodes big boulders and rocks.

Boulders roll down these denuded hills into roaring streams that rise from high altitudes and plummet sharply to thousands of metres. Buner, which endured terrible devastation, inclines upwards from 360 metres in the south to reach a maximum height of 2,910m at the Dosara Peak in the north. Given such drastic variations in altitude, a bout of intense rainfall can generate torrents of unimaginable potency. Forests in Swat were ruthlessly devoured during 2007 to 2009 when the Taliban seized the territory.

The disaster was not caused by a few abnormal showers.

Kashmir tells a similar story. A news report last month mentioned that floods in the Neelum Valley brought a huge bounty of illegally cut timber to Nauseri Dam near Muzaffarabad. Clandestine deforestation in the area intensified the floods. Research based on variations in forest cover maps in 2023 concluded that GB lost over 1,700 square kilometres of forest cover in two decades. It disclosed that Chilas subdivision witnessed the highest rate of deforestation between 2000 and 2010 when over 8,600 acres of forest vanished from the map. Darel/Tangir and Astore ranked second and third in this race to the bottom. These areas felt the impact of the recent devastation.

The upper Indus Basin is dotted with more than 3,000 glacial lakes that burst due to heavy rains and generated lethal flows. GB’s population has nearly doubled since 1998. New settlements have been created. Careless tourism has further tested the fragility of the ecosystem. The burgeoning population, especially the poor, tend to occupy empty land in

the mountains, the river plains, forests and deserts everywhere in the country, as witnes­sed in the floodplains of Punjab and Sindh, where large numbers of people were displaced from katcha areas due to the devastating floods in the last week of August. As admitted by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, Sialkot was submerged due to encroachments hindering the waterways. The dry beds of the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers were massively encroached upon and hence witnessed damage and displacement when the floods roared in after four decades.

Encroachments have clogged the waterways in the urban and rural areas. Infrastructure has been developed without giving any thought to the impact of the raging climatic events. From the mountain peaks to the coastline, a comprehensive climate audit and a grand overhaul of the ecosystem has become a necessity.

Recurring disasters in the mountains of Swat and GB and the floodplains of southern Punjab and Sindh need to be scrutinised from a different angle. Putting toge­ther the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, a sad picture reveals itself: disasters are trigge­red more by frequent and sustained bursts of misgovernance than cloudbursts.

The writer is a civil society professional.
nmemon2004@yahoo.com

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025

Theme Park owner arrested for raising illegal scheme in Ravi

Zulqernain Tahir 

Published September 4, 2025  

DAWN

LAHORE: The Anti-Corruption Establishment (ACE) has arrested the owner of Theme Park, an ‘illegal’ housing scheme raised in the river bed of Ravi.

The scheme was completely inundated by the swollen river last week.

“Khushi Muhammad built this illegal housing scheme in the Ravi land, made residential plots on 12,000 kanals inside the river bed and sold them to citizens by fraud. The suspect had not built the society as per law and even couldn’t establish any kind of sewage system in the fake housing scheme and since the entire area was inside the river, therefore, all the houses in the illegal housing scheme were submerged by the floodwater,” an ACE spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.

He said the ACE had also sought record of all illegal housing schemes established in the Ravi bed from the River Urban Development Authority (Ruda) and the Lahore Development Authority (LDA) so that action could be taken against those housing schemes as per the law.

ACE seeks record from Ruda, LDA: promises strict action

“Theme Park was not approved by the relevant departments. Keeping in mind public complaints, the ACE has decided to take strict action against all such illegal housing schemes which are established on river land,” he said and added the construction of housing societies on river land could not be permitted at all and indiscriminate action would be taken against already-established illegal housing schemes as well.

A source said Khushi Muhammad was a police constable before he kicked off this project — Theme Park — with a small piece of land.

“By exploiting the loopholes in the system and greasing the palm of the officials concerned, he continued acquiring more land in the river bed and sold the same to the citizens. He also managed to transfer billions of rupees abroad.

Interestingly, it is the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which usually initiates action against the housing societies involved in fraudulent activities but in this case the ACE stepped in first.

“It will be a test case for Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz whether she successfully lays hands on those involved in this mega corruption housing scam along the river bed or buckles under the pressure of those who have strong connections in certain corridors,” an official source said and added not only the owners of such societies but top officials in bureaucracy that helped them build structures on the river land with impunity should be taken to task.

Federal Minister for Communication Aleem Khan, also the president of Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) which was dubbed as king’s party at the time of its inception in 2023, had got a major relief same year following NAB’s decision to close an inquiry against him for allegedly occupying and encroaching public passages and illegal extension of the Park View housing society both in Lahore and Islamabad under the new accountability laws.

The property tycoon was accused of illegally occupying ‘public passages’ and illegal extension of River Edge Housing Society Lahore and also illegal extension of a housing society (Park View) in Islamabad, thus minting money from general public by selling plots in unapproved phases.

The LDA had raised an objection saying the housing scheme was situated in a river area which could not be utilised for any residential purposes. “It is not safe for the people’s lives to allow residential construction there (Ravi area),” the LDA had informed NAB.

“The land also fell in an agricultural area and did not carry the characteristics of urban property thus the scheme was not approved. Despite this, Aleem Khan and others started selling the plots falling in the area for which approval was refused,” NAB had alleged. It is a big question mark how come RUDA, LDA or TMAs approved structures along the river bed.

In recent days, billions of rupees of residents have been lost in various housing schemes and katchi abadis after floodwater entered their houses and business premises in Lahore. This area comes under the Ravi Riverfront Urban Development Project being executed along a 46km long stretch of Ravi by RUDA.

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025