From Barrels To Molecules: Gulf’s Emerging Multi-Energy Export Model – Analysis

March 9, 2026 
Observer Research Foundation
By Parul Bakshi

For half a century, the Gulf’s geopolitical influence travelled in tankers of crude oil; today, it is beginning to move in cargoes of liquefied gas, molecules of hydrogen, clean-energy carriers, carbon management solutions, and electrons transmitted across borders. Rather than abandoning hydrocarbons, Gulf states are repositioning themselves as multi-energy exporters, seeking to convert resource endowments, sovereign capital, and strategic geography into long-term influence across the next generation of global energy trade.

This emerging export model rests on three enduring advantages. First, the Gulf combines vast hydrocarbon reserves with some of the world’s most competitive solar and wind resources, enabling parallel investment in both legacy and low-carbon energy systems. Second, sovereign wealth funds and state-owned energy companies provide patient capital capable of financing large-scale infrastructure, from LNG trains and nuclear plants to hydrogen hubs and carbon-capture networks. Third, the region’s geography, situated between Europe, Asia, and Africa, positions it as a natural corridor for energy trade. Together, these allow the Gulf not merely to adapt to the energy transition but to shape its emerging commercial architecture.

LNG: Enduring Baseline of Gulf Energy Exports

LNG remains the most mature and commercially secure pillar of the Gulf’s evolving export model, providing both continuity with the hydrocarbon era and the financial foundation for diversification into lower-carbon energy systems.

Qatar’s North Field expansion is expected to nearly double LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to about 142 mtpa by 2030, reinforcing its position among the world’s dominant gas exporters. In parallel, ADNOC’s Ruwais LNG project in the UAE will add about 9.6mtpa, with more than 80 percent of capacity already secured through long-term agreements ahead of its planned 2028 start-up. Designed as one of the region’s lowest-carbon LNG facilities, Ruwais will be powered by clean electricity and advanced digital optimisation.

Together with enduring long-term contracts with major Asian buyers, these developments underscore LNG’s continued role as the Gulf’s most bankable export channel even amid global decarbonisation pressures.

From a feasibility perspective, LNG differs from emerging clean-energy exports in one crucial respect: the infrastructure, shipping networks, and contractual frameworks are already established. This maturity allows Gulf producers to monetise existing gas reserves while financing investments in hydrogen, ammonia, and carbon management. Yet it also exposes LNG to long-term uncertainty. Competition from the United States and Australia, evolving climate policy, and the risk of demand plateauing beyond the 2030s mean that LNG is best understood not as the endpoint of Gulf export strategy, but as the stabilising bridge enabling the transition toward a broader multi-energy portfolio.

Hydrogen: Next Strategic Export Frontier

Hydrogen is being positioned to extend the Gulf’s energy influence into a decarbonising global system. Across the region, governments and state-backed developers are advancing large-scale projects that link abundant renewable resources, existing industrial infrastructure, and export-oriented energy strategy.

Saudi Arabia’s NEOM green hydrogen project is expected to produce around 600 tonnes per day of green hydrogen once operational, supported by more than 4 GW of dedicated solar and wind capacity. In the UAE, Masdar and ADNOC are advancing green and blue hydrogen initiatives tied to domestic industry and future export corridors, while Oman’s Hydrom framework and the Sur hydrogen cluster aim to position the country as a major

 exporter of green fuels to Europe and Asia.

Despite this momentum, hydrogen exports remain structurally more uncertain than LNG. Large-scale deployment depends on falling electrolyser costs, reliable water supply through desalination, and bankable long-term offtake agreements in importing regions. Transport logistics, certification standards, and price competitiveness against alternative decarbonisation pathways will ultimately determine commercial viability. As a result, hydrogen is viewed as a long-term strategic extension of Gulf export capability, one that could reshape global energy trade if technological, financial, and geopolitical conditions align.

Ammonia: First Scalable Hydrogen Export

Ammonia is emerging as the most commercially viable pathway for exporting low-carbon hydrogen from the Gulf, enabling producers to utilise existing global shipping, storage, and industrial-use infrastructure while hydrogen markets mature. Several flagship Gulf projects are therefore structured around ammonia rather than direct hydrogen trade.

Saudi Arabia’s NEOM project is designed to produce roughly 1.2 mtpa of green ammonia, positioning the Kingdom among the earliest large-scale suppliers of hydrogen-derived fuels. It also successfully shipped 40 tonnes of blue ammonia to Japan, marking one of the world’s first cross-border trades in low-carbon ammonia and signalling early demand from Asian importers. In parallel, UAE-linked producer Fertiglobe has secured European offtake through Germany’s hydrogen-import tenders, while Oman is advancing integrated hydrogen-to-ammonia zones such as Hyport Duqm to anchor future clean-fuel exports.

Ammonia, unlike pure hydrogen, has existing transport logistics and end-use markets. Yet long-term competitiveness will depend on falling hydrogen production costs, large-scale renewable deployment, credible certification systems, and sustained import demand. Ammonia could represent a bridge between Gulf hydrocarbons and a future clean-molecule export economy, shaped by global policy and market environment.
Regional Grid: Transmitting Clean Electrons

While still at a nascent stage, clean-power trade represents a potential long-term extension of the region’s energy-export model. The GCC Interconnection Grid already links national power systems, providing resilience, reserve sharing, and a foundation for future electricity trade. Historically used primarily for emergency balancing rather than commercial exchange, the same infrastructure could enable higher penetration of renewables and eventual cross-border clean-power flows as solar and wind capacity expands across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman.

Looking outward, several concepts under discussion envision high-voltage direct current (HVDC) connections transmitting renewable electricity from the Gulf toward neighbouring regions, including South Asia, North Africa, and potentially Europe. These proposals remain technically feasible but commercially complex, requiring multilateral coordination, long-distance subsea transmission, stable regulatory frameworks, and bankable long-term power-purchase agreements.

Compared with LNG or ammonia, direct electricity export faces higher geopolitical and infrastructure barriers, yet it also offers a compelling strategic logic. Where renewable generation costs are low, exporting electrons rather than fuels could ultimately provide a more efficient decarbonisation pathway for importing regions.

Carbon Management: A Low-Carbon Hedge

Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) is emerging as a parallel export logic for the Gulf, sustaining the competitiveness of hydrocarbon value chains in a carbon-constrained world. Qatar’s large-scale capture facilities at Ras Laffan, the UAE’s operational Al Reyadah and upcoming Habshan project, and Saudi Arabia’s Jubail CCS Hub collectively signal a shift toward embedding carbon management within core export infrastructure.

CCUS builds directly on existing industrial systems, allowing Gulf producers to preserve hydrocarbon revenues while lowering lifecycle emissions. Yet its long-term viability depends on policy credibility beyond the region, robust carbon-pricing mechanisms, trusted monitoring and verification frameworks, and sustained demand for low-carbon fuels in Europe and Asia. If these conditions materialise, carbon management could evolve into a distinct export service, anchoring hydrogen, LNG, and industrial decarbonisation partnerships. In this sense, CCUS represents not a departure from the Gulf’s hydrocarbon foundations, but their strategic adaptation to the economics and geopolitics of deep decarbonisation.

Emerging Multi-Energy Order

Rather than replacing hydrocarbons, the region is layering new export vectors onto an existing foundation, using gas revenues, sovereign capital, and industrial infrastructure to finance entry into lower-carbon energy systems. This transition is therefore evolutionary rather than disruptive, defined by sequencing, scale, and strategic hedging rather than abrupt transformation.

Whether this emerging multi-energy model succeeds will depend on bankable offtake, water and land availability, grid and shipping infrastructure, and credible carbon-accounting frameworks, to determine which export pathways mature commercially. At the same time, geopolitical stability and sustained demand from Europe and Asia remain preconditions for long-term influence.

If realised, the Gulf’s shift from exporting barrels of crude to exporting molecules, electrons, and carbon solutions could reshape the architecture of global energy trade. The question is not whether the Gulf will remain central to the energy system, but how that centrality will be redefined in a decarbonising world.

About the author: Parul Bakshi is Fellow – Energy and Climate at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) Middle East.

Source: This article was published by the Observer Research Foundation

Observer Research Foundation

ORF was established on 5 September 1990 as a private, not for profit, ’think tank’ to influence public policy formulation. The Foundation brought together, for the first time, leading Indian economists and policymakers to present An Agenda for Economic Reforms in India. The idea was to help develop a consensus in favour of economic reforms.

 

Oil price spike at over $100 per barrel as market faces possibly worst crisis in history

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By Newsbase March 9, 2026

Oil prices surged to over $100 per barrel in early trading on March 9, as the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for nearly a week now has led to production shut-ins across the Gulf as storage space for unexported oil runs out.

Brent was trading at over $108 per barrel as of 06:30 GMT, up from the early $90s at the close of trading on March 6 and the early $70s prior to the US and Israel launch of strikes against Iran on February 28.

As NewsBase warned, Gulf producers are now having to shut down wells because of limited oil storage capacity and limited alternative oil export routes to Hormuz, which typically handles 20mn barrels per day (bpd) of oil flow – equivalent to around a fifth of global supply. 

Tehran claims it is only restricting passage through Hormuz for Western nations and Israel rather than completely closing the maritime chokepoint. But many other oil tankers are reluctant to pass through the Strait because of the risk of Iranian strikes – intentional or accidental. Iranian forces already targeted two tankers in the early days of the war.

Iraq has cut production from its southern fields that export via Hormuz by 70% to only 1.3mn bpd, Reuters reported on March 8, after the country’s storage facilities reached maximum capacity. Its exports also fell sharply to 800,000 bpd, from 3.33mn bpd in February, according to the news agency. 

Kuwait and the UAE were next to announce production cuts over the weekend, with even larger producers like Saudi Arabia expected to take similar steps if the crisis is not resolved soon. 

JPMorgan estimated on March 2 that onshore crude storage capacity across Gulf producers amounts to roughly 343mn barrels, equivalent to around 22 days of output that could become stranded if exports are unable to leave the region. In addition, about 60 empty tankers currently in the Gulf could provide temporary floating storage capacity of roughly 50mn barrels

“The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, told clients on March 6.

The bank estimates that production cuts could surpass 4mn bpd by the end of this week if Hormuz remains closed. The oil price surge may therefore have only just begun. 

“Every additional day of disruption adds pressure, and in that scenario there is effectively no ceiling to prices in the short term,” Stefano Grasso, senior portfolio manager at Singapore-based fund 8VantEdge, told Bloomberg.

Depending on how it lasts, this may prove to be the biggest disruption in oil markets in history. In comparison to the 20mn bpd of exports affected by the Hormuz blockade, the Iranian Revolution of 1978 only disrupted 5.6mn bpd of supply, while the Yom Kipper war of 1973 hit 4.4mn bpd of exports, the 1990 Iraq-Kuwait war 4.3mn bpd and the Iran-Iraq war of 1980 some 4.0mn bpd.

As noted, the alternative export routes for Saudi Arabia and other producers is limited. As NewsBase has reported, Saudi Arabia possesses the greatest logistical flexibility. Its primary contingency relies on the East-West pipeline, which has around 2mn bpd of spare capacity to deliver oil to the Red Sea. But that would still leave 4mn bpd of Saudi exports trapped. 

Other major producers face significantly shorter timelines. Kuwait lacks any bypass infrastructure, meaning all its exports must transit Hormuz. With limited storage headroom, Wood Mackenzie estimates the country has roughly two weeks of cover before it must slash production. Southern Iraq is similarly exposed; its 3.5mn bpd of exports are entirely dependent on the strait, with storage cover measured in “days, not weeks,” according to Araman.

The UAE maintains partial flexibility through the Abu Dhabi oil pipeline,  which can move 1.8mn bpd to Fujairah, a terminal located outside the strait. Nevertheless, with total exports exceeding 3.4mn bpd, a substantial volume remains bottlenecked. Araman wrote that ADNOC’s Fujairah storage provides a buffer of roughly two to three weeks, after which Murban crude output must adjust.

The $100-per-barrel oil price is perceived as a psychologically significant threshold that when surpassed, could trigger problems for the global economy as well as inflationary pressure. Depending on the duration of Hormuz’s closure, the crisis could erase completely the surplus of global oil supply this year that was anticipated prior to the war. In February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil production  would rise by 2.4mn bpd in 2026, while demand would only grow by 850,000-930,000 bpd, creating a surplus of 1.47-1.55mn bpd.

Asian stocks slide as oil prices surge past $100 per barrel

/ Marcus Reubenstein - Unsplash

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By bno - Surabaya Office March 9, 2026

Equity markets across Asia fell sharply at the week’s opening on March 9, with indices in Japan and South Korea leading regional losses following a steep rise in global oil prices, The Business Times reports.

Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) also opened 1.9% lower at 4,755.91 points. On the island, declining stocks heavily outnumbered gainers, with 249 losers versus 37 advancers, after around 166.9mn securities worth approximately $175.3mn were traded.

In addition, banking stocks in Singapore were among the hardest hit in early trading. Shares of DBS Bank fell 1.6%, declining by about $0.67 to $40.24. Meanwhile, OCBC Bank dropped 1.9%, slipping roughly $0.30 to $15.18, while United Overseas Bank (UOB) lost a full 2.3%, decreasing by $0.61 to $26.19.

The sell-off across Singapore and the region came about as crude oil prices surged above the $100 per barrel mark with West Texas Intermediate rising 20.8% to $109.78 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 16.3% to hit $101.38 per barrel.

Energy-related stocks - as a result - were among the few gainers in early trading. Rex International jumped 13.3%, rising by about $0.018 to $0.154, while Geo Energy Resources also increased 5.4%, gaining roughly $0.019 to $0.365.

In Southeast Asia, Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI was also down 2% as of 9:30 am local time, despite a research note released on March 6 by BMI ranking Malaysia as having the fifth-lowest risk score among 24 emerging markets in terms of potential exposure to the economic fallout from the US–Israel–Iran conflict.

The assessment evaluated factors such as trade disruption linked to the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz, terms of trade, external balances, as well as fiscal and monetary policy resilience.

The report also noted that energy-exporting countries such as Malaysia, seen as up and coming in the region, could benefit from elevated gas prices. In contrast, dedicated energy importers like the Philippines and South Korea may face pressure on their currencies and increased strain on their balance of payments as oil prices remain elevated.

War In Iran Shocks Markets, Costs U.S. Taxpayers $1 Billion A Day

 March 9, 2026  

By Brett Rowland

(The Center Square) – The escalating war in Iran has already rattled global markets and driven oil prices to their highest levels since April 2024. If the conflict persists, the strain on the global economy deepens and the burden on U.S. taxpayers grows.

With U.S. military operations costing more than a billion dollars each day, experts warn that a prolonged war could require a significant increase in defense spending, further affecting the federal budget.

The U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28 after nuclear talks with Islamic Republic failed to produce a deal. President Donald Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have laid out four military objectives: Destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, neutralizing its navy, preventing the development of nuclear weapons, and ensuring the regime can’t direct terrorism beyond its borders.

Both Trump and Hegseth said the conflict is at the beginning. It’s unclear how long the war could continue, but Trump said it could be several weeks. On Friday, Trump said he would accept nothing less than Iran’s unconditional surrender.

U.S. gas prices surged to an average of $3.45 on Sunday, according to AAA, a $0.47 increase over the week. That’s the sharpest weekly rise since March 2022, when prices jumped $0.60 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Since the Iran conflict began, oil prices have soared from around $65 to over $90 a barrel as of Friday.

Desmond Lachman, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said the economic hits could become more severe as the war continues.

He predicted gas prices could climb even higher, potentially exceeding $3.50 or even $3.75 per gallon.

“That has an impact on inflation and could also slow the economy. So it’s quite a big deal,” he said.

Shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, an international group that tracks commercial shipping safety. The waterway usually handles about 20% of the world’s crude oil and natural gas shipments.

On average, about 138 vessels pass through the strait each day. That dropped to four earlier this week.

“This represents a near-total temporary pause in routine commercial traffic,” JMIC noted. “While no formal legal closure of the Strait has been universally acknowledged, the reduction stems from a combination of security threats, insurance constraints, operational uncertainty, and effective disruptions rather than a declared blockade.”

Lachman said the Strait of Hormuz is one problem, but Iran is also attacking oil and gas infrastructure, reducing supply.

“They are going after oil refineries and pipelines so there’ll be pressure on the United States to end the war,” he told The Center Square. “What’s happening right now is that those Gulf states are able to intercept the drones that the Iranians are sending, but the Iranians have got more drones than these states have got interceptors.”

Additional disruptions could send oil prices above $100 a barrel, Lachman said.

Goldman Sachs Research economists Jessica Rindels and Pierfrancesco Mei estimated that higher oil prices could hamper the U.S. economy and push up consumer prices. Higher oil prices reduce disposable income, which in turn limits spending, they noted.

“History suggests that oil price spikes driven by geopolitical shocks can be short-lived if markets gain confidence that supply disruptions will be temporary,” they wrote in a report.

How long the war with Iran will last and how far it might spread throughout the Middle East remain unclear, Lachman said.

“The trouble is, nobody really knows how long it will continue,” he told The Center Square.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said Friday that the “situation could spiral beyond anyone’s control.”

“All the unlawful attacks in the Middle East and beyond are causing tremendous suffering and harm to civilians throughout the region – and pose a grave risk to the global economy, particularly to the most vulnerable people,” he said. “It is time to stop the fighting and get to serious diplomatic negotiations. The stakes could not be higher.”

In addition to the global economy, a long and costly war in Iran could hit U.S. taxpayers, Lachman said.

“This is costing over a billion dollars a day,” he told The Center Square. “So if this drags on, the U.S. is going to need a big increase in its defense budget, which can push interest rates up. You’ve just got to hope that this is a very short war; otherwise, there will be serious consequences.”

Trump is already looking to boost military spending. Trump previously proposed a $1.5 trillion budget for the Department of War, a 60% increase over existing levels.

On Friday, the nation’s largest defense contractors agreed to “quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite Class’ Weaponry,” the president said in a social media post.

Rising US fuel prices risk sparking domestic wildfire for Trump

By AFP
March 6, 2026


In California and across the United States, gas prices are on the rise as the Middle East war begins to affect pocketbooks - Copyright AFP/File Frederic J. BROWN

Asad Hashim, with Sarah Lai in Los Angeles

Sean Robinson, a 54-year-old schoolteacher in the US capital Washington, did not realize how high gas prices had gotten until he arrived at the pump on Friday.

“That is a sizeable jump,” he told AFP, pointing to a neon sign showing $3.27 for a gallon of regular gasoline.

Robinson is among US consumers feeling the sting of a cost surge sparked by the US-Israel war on Iran, which sent oil prices soaring as Tehran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz after being attacked.

But the price hike comes at a politically sensitive time for President Donald Trump as midterm elections approach, hitting voters hard.

Expensive gasoline could also prompt the independent central bank to put the brakes on the world’s largest economy as it battles stubborn inflation.

Since last week, US average domestic fuel prices have risen 11 percent, according to the AAA’s fuel price gauge.

It is the kind of move that Robinson said will have him cutting down on all but the essentials.

“It just determines what I’m going to do on a day-to-day basis,” he said. “Pretty much start thinking about (watching) Netflix, staying in the house instead of burning gas.”

Others at the gas station agreed.

“It impacts all areas of life,” said Toloria Washington, 39. “We are in a state of survival mode.”

– ‘It’s the basics’ –

Washington, who works in finance, said fuel expenses are non-negotiable for her. With prices rising at the pump, she had to make cuts elsewhere.

That, she said, is a problem for people already battered by years of high prices post-pandemic.

“That’s the key thing, it’s tapping into everybody’s basics,” she added. “It’s the basics. Daily survival of food, water, housing.”

US inflation hit a peak of 9.1 percent during the pandemic. While it has cooled since then, analysts warn of risks of another pick-up.

“Inflation showed signs of accelerating prior to the jump in energy prices,” said KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk.

“That has left consumers in a sour mood,” she added.

Swonk warned that rising fuel prices added “insult to injury” for low-income Americans, who are already seeing higher healthcare costs and a tightening of welfare benefits under Trump.

Trump, who has bragged about oil prices falling during his term, sought to address the political fallout on Friday, telling CNN he expected prices to come down quickly.

His Republican party holds only a slim majority in both the House and Senate.

With midterm elections due in November, he will be hoping that voters do not let tightening household budgets weaken his political position.

– Fed’s ‘dueling mandate’ –

Trump could see further complications if inflation from gasoline price hikes pushes the Fed to respond by keeping interest rates at a higher level.

The central bank has a dual mandate of maintaining stable prices and maximum employment, but has one main tool to do so — adjusting interest rates.

Raising them generally cools economic activity and reduces inflation while lowering them can spur activity, boosting the weakening employment market.

The prospect of more inflation due to oil prices raises the specter of what some analysts call a nightmare scenario.

“This could not come at a worse time for the Federal Reserve,” said KPMG’s Swonk. “It now has a dueling mandate with the risk that inflation not only lingers but accelerates.”

Fed policymakers remain cautious.

Addressing higher domestic energy prices on Friday, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg TV he considered them “unlikely to cause sustained inflation.”

But this is scant consolation for many Americans hit by even a temporary bout of price increases.

“One thing after another, it’s chaos, you know, every day,” said Lucas Tamaren, 32, at a gas pump in Los Angeles.

“Living in America feels unpredictable and chaotic and it’s hard.”

Robinson, the schoolteacher, said he will be watching gas prices every day now. He expects price pressures will be reflected at the voting booth in November.

“The more you pay higher gas, higher groceries (costs),” he said, voters will “start to see” that the middle class is shrinking.

Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com

Video Suggests Trump’s ICE Lied About Its First Known Killing of a US Citizen Last March

“He was shot at point-blank range through his side window by an ICE agent who was in no danger,” said lawyers for the family of Ruben Ray Martinez.


Body camera footage shows federal immigration agents and police officers surrounding Ruben Ray Martinez after he was shot on March 15, 2025 in South Padre Island, Texas.
(Image via South Padre Island Police Department)

Julia Conley
Mar 09, 2026
COMMON DREAMS

Materials released over the weekend by the Texas Department of Public Safety regarding a homeland security officer’s killing of 23-year-old Ruben Ray Martinez last March in Texas appeared to provide the latest evidence that federal agents have misled the public about the circumstances surrounding fatal shootings.

American Oversight, a government watchdog group, revealed last month that nearly a year before the fatal shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, Martinez was the first known US citizen to be killed by an agent of the Trump administration who was carrying out official duties.


‘How Many Other Killings Are They Concealing?’ ICE Shot Ruben Ray Martinez in Texas Last March

Since then, a grand jury has declined to indict the accused officer, Homeland Security Investigations agent Jack C. Stevens, and American Oversight as well as Martinez’s family and lawyers have demanded that state authorities release the findings of their investigation into the killing, with the watchdog filing a Freedom of Information Act request.

The body camera footage released on Saturday called into question statements that were made by the Department of Homeland Security after Martinez’s killing was publicly revealed, when a DHS spokesperson said the young man “intentionally ran over” an agent.

Internal documents also claimed officers commanded Martinez to get out of his car after he approached the scene of a vehicle accident and that he “accelerated forward, striking a HSI special agent who wound up on the hood of the vehicle.”

The video that was released came from a body camera worn by a South Padre Island, Texas police officer who was one of a number of local, state, and federal agents securing an area after a car accident.



About 21 minutes into the officer’s footage, someone can be heard saying, “Keep going” as Martinez’s car approaches the scene. The car briefly stops for some pedestrians, and officers soon appear to become concerned, running toward the vehicle and shouting, “Stop him” and, “Get him out.”

Martinez’s car appears to be moving slowly, with the brake lights on, as three gunshots are heard and just after.

The video then shows an officer removing Martinez from the car and throwing him on the ground while his friend who was in the car with him, Joshua Orta, is taken into custody.

The internal DHS documents said a second HSI agent Hector Sosa, was struck by the car in his legs, falling over the hood. The footage is taken from behind the car, making it unclear whether Sosa was hit—but it does not show Martinez accelerating.

If an officer was hit, University of South Carolina criminal justice professor Geoffrey P. Albert told the Washington Post, based on the footage of the car it would have been a case of “officer-created jeopardy.”

“The contradictory orders are confusing and may have been a strong influence,” Alpert told the Post. “The speed is slow and doesn’t appear threatening. Could the officer have moved away? At worst, all he has to do is step aside.”

He added that the body camera video raises “a lot of red flags.”

Lawyers for Martinez’s family, Charles M. Stam and Alex Stamm, said in a statement that the videos confirm the 23-year-old’s car “was barely moving when he was shot.”

“He was shot at point-blank range through his side window by an ICE agent who was in no danger,” said the attorneys.

Orta, who was killed last month in an unrelated vehicle accident in San Antonio, provided a witness statement after Martinez was killed, saying “I state clearly and without hesitation that Ruben did not hit anyone,” Orta wrote. “The trooper seemed to be trying to get in front of the car, like he wasn’t moving out of the way when we tried to turn around and leave like the police officer told us to do.”

More than a dozen people have been killed by federal immigration officers since President Donald Trump took office for his second term in January 2025.

In the case of Good, an independent autopsy was conducted as part of a civil investigation into her killing and found “strong evidence” against the agent who shot her, calling into question the Trump administration’s claim that the officer had killed the 37-year-old in self-defense.

A preliminary government investigation into Pretti’s killing did not find that the legal observer had threatened or attacked the Border Patrol and Customs and Border Protection agents who fatally shot him, as the administration had first claimed.

Both Pretti and Good were immediately denounced as “domestic terrorists” by administration officials.

DHS also claimed that Marimar Martinez, a Chicago resident who was shot several times by a federal agent but survived last October, had “rammed” officers’ vehicles. Body camera footage and text messages from officers later undermined those claims. Federal prosecutors abruptly dropped their criminal case against Martinez weeks after she was shot.

The video of Martinez’s killing in Texas, said columnist Nicholas Kristof, suggests that the DHS account of that incident “may be a lie” as well.

'Ridiculous': DHS deputy blows millions on 'unusable' vehicles that are now in 'hiding'

Masked law enforcement officers, including HSI and ICE agents, walk into an immigration court in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S., May 21, 2025. REUTERS/Caitlin O'Hara/File Photo

Adam Lynch

March 09, 2026

ALTERNET

The Washington Examiner reports that former DHS head Kristi Noem was not the only division head prone to blow cash on big adventures such as a $220 million series of television advertisements. A former Trump administration official wasted millions of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement taxpayer dollars purchasing thousands of employee vehicles that are now unusable, according to three sources

“ICE’s top brass are quietly searching for a way to amend the remainder of a massive order of pick-up trucks and SUVs that were ordered last year and slated to be wrapped with the agency’s name, logo, and motto, as well as storing away many vehicles that have been delivered to ICE facilities across the country,” reports the Washington Examiner.



“ICE has never had marked vehicles,” one source familiar with the purchases told the Examiner. “In talking to people, they’re like, ‘We don’t want to use these, we can’t.'”

The saga, according to Examiner, “is the latest controversial expenditure of taxpayer money within the Department of Homeland Security and speaks to the different ways political appointees at the department have tried to approach operations versus how career law enforcement officials have historically done so.”

President Donald Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill allocated $170 billion over four years for border security and immigration enforcement, and people in charge of purchase orders appear to be giving less thought to how that money is spent. For example, assaults against ICE personnel have risen 8,000 percent over the past year, according to the DHS. The threat is so serious that federal police now opt to hide their faces while conducting business in public. They also frequently resort to rental vehicles, and they switch license plates on rental vehicles to avoid detection by activists, who track the plates of suspected ICE vehicles with crowdsourced databases.


But despite the value of secrecy in today’s hostile environment, ICE’s former deputy director, Madison Sheahan apparently placed an expensive purchase of a bulk order for vehicles marked clearly with ICE’s logo.

Last November, the Examiner reports the agency announced it would spend $2.25 million in a no-bid contract with a prominent Republican donor, Rick Hendrick, to buy 25 Chevrolet Tahoes emblazoned with ICE’s new logo. The Examiner reports the department then spent an additional $174,000 to $230,000 to three companies to wrap the vehicles in their new markings.

“It’s ridiculous because you don’t want to advertise what you’re doing,” the first source said. “We’re just hiding them in a parking garage somewhere because we don’t want to drive them. Who wants to drive the marked vehicles?”


Sheahan was hand-picked by Noem to be the second-in-command of the 20,000-employee federal agency and its $9 billion budget. Her prior experience included serving as a political director when Noem was South Dakota’s governor. She also served as executive director of the South Dakota Republican Party, and as secretary of the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries.

A second source said the marked vehicles are now being used for custodial pick-ups, or when ICE retrieves someone from a local jail or state prison — not in general enforcement.

Bad Bunny Turned the Super Bowl Into a Call for Land Sovereignty

Bad Bunny didn’t just choose a lush set design. He intentionally made history visible, reminding millions of viewers that colonial power doesn’t only claim territory, it reorganizes our whole environment.


Bad Bunny flies into the arms of his dancers.
(Photo by Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for Roc Nation)

Alejandro Díaz Loyola
Mar 09, 2026

Common Dreams

On the world’s biggest stage, amid fireworks and spectacle, there stood the crop that enriched empires while eroding Puerto Rico’s land, labor, and sovereignty.

When Bad Bunny opened his halftime performance walking through what looked like a living sugarcane field, millions simply saw a striking stage design. But those of us involved in agricultural communities saw a protest.

The Link Between Land, Culture, and Self-Determination

Sugarcane once powered Puerto Rico’s economy. Under Spanish rule and later as a territory of the United States, vast plantations consumed the island’s most fertile lands. Once diverse farming systems created by Taíno Indigenous communities gave way to monocultures designed for export. As with all colonial systems, wealth made in Puerto Rico has long flowed outward while the ecological and social costs remain for local people to have to bear.

Across colonized lands, colonial agriculture prioritized single crops for distant markets at the expense of ecological and social prosperity and resilience—a historical legacy that today ripples through communities and commodity markets. In Puerto Rico, as in other Latin American and Caribbean countries—including my own home country, Mexico—forests were cleared and watersheds were destabilized to power the colonial economic machine. Soil health declined. Local communities’ cultural ties to land were fractured, and, without power over local resources anymore, they could no longer steward landscapes as they once did. In Puerto Rico, US policies favoring industrialization over agriculture from the early 20th century onward were the final straw. Although Puerto Rico once produced most of its own food on the island, it now imports over 80%.

The image of sugarcane at the Super Bowl reminds us that land is political. It carries memories of exploitation, resilience, and identity.

What appear today as “degraded land” and disempowered communities are the ecological and social residue of economic models designed for extraction. So, in a very real sense, Bad Bunny didn’t just choose a lush set design. He intentionally made history visible, reminding millions of viewers that colonial power doesn’t only claim territory, it reorganizes our whole environment and, in doing so, reshapes culture, labor, and identity itself.

For many Puerto Ricans, the performance summoned the figure of the jíbaro—the smallholder farmer of the island’s mountainous interior, living from and with the land during colonial rule. More than a rural archetype, the jíbaro is a cultural touchstone, carried through generations in music, poetry, and oral tradition. They represent resilience and dignity, and an enduring bond between people and place—a vision of land not as commodity, but as home, heritage, and self-determination. Framed within Bad Bunny’s creative vision, land is not an asset class: It is identity and community.

Restoring Nature-Positive Farming Traditions Isn’t a Luxury—It’s Basic Risk-Management

Modern agricultural practices, many rooted in colonialism, have long degraded land by plundering natural ecosystems and extracting their value, often concentrating ownership in a few powerful hands. This has left us in a dire situation: At least 40% of the world’s land is now degraded, driving increasing food and water insecurity, contributing to climate change, and fueling climate migration.

To ensure our future on the planet, we must urgently prioritize land restoration and transitioning to regenerative agricultural practices. But for restoration to work, the governance model colonialism installed must be inverted. Landscapes cannot be regenerated without local decision-making power. Ecological repair and political agency go hand in hand.

As climate pressures intensify and public budgets shrink, we are seeing governments and businesses alike continue to act like ecological and social resilience is a luxury, an add-on after economic profit has been achieved. But safeguarding agricultural and ecological heritage, and placing power in the hands of local communities to be able to do this on their own terms, is a scientifically sound investment in economic resilience.

If we are serious about healing degraded landscapes—in Puerto Rico, in Mexico, across Latin America and the Caribbean, and beyond—we must ensure that the finance being used to restore does not become a new form of enclosure.

Research shows us that when communities have ownership and governance over local resources, restoration lasts. Yes, this demands real upfront investment—in soil, water, agroforestry, local enterprise, and strong community institutions. But the returns are massive: Every dollar invested in restoration can generate up to $30 in benefits.

If finance continues to channel value outward while communities carry the risk, we simply repackage (neo)colonialism in a greener language. Restoration funding must, therefore, anchor ownership and governance locally, positioning communities as architects of change, not passive recipients. And there are models already demonstrating what this can look like.

In Mexico’s Sierra Gorda, the Grupo Ecológico Sierra Gorda (GESG) has built a system where conservation and livelihoods are inseparable. Working alongside the state government, GESG has designed and implemented a public policy within the Sierra Gorda Biosphere Reserve where “forest owners” are compensated to steward forests, manage grazing responsibly, and protect biodiversity.

In simple terms, communities receive compensation for maintaining ecosystems that provide measurable public benefits—carbon sequestration, clean water, biodiversity conservation. Instead of extracting value from the land, value is generated by caring for it.

In the Sierra Gorda Biosphere Reserve, more than 300 people directly benefit from a PES (payment for ecosystem services) program covering over 14,000 hectares. GESG operates through a co-management model between civil society and the federal government, grounded in strong local participation and recognition. The goal is not short-term subsidy, but long-term institutional self-sufficiency through sub-national public policy—creating funding streams that sustain conservation while advancing community-led development.

It is a powerful example of conservation that reinforces, rather than erodes, local sovereignty. But PES alone cannot finance restoration at landscape scale; this requires a different kind of financial architecture. Regenerative blended finance offers one pathway. By combining public funds, philanthropic capital, and private investment, it can reduce risk and unlock larger flows of capital for landscape recovery. When designed well, blended finance mechanisms can accelerate ecological restoration while (and by) giving communities control.

A regeneratively-designed blended finance model treats communities as owners and co-investors, not beneficiaries. It embeds social and ecological returns alongside financial ones. It builds local financial capacity, enabling communities to negotiate, manage, and reinvest capital themselves, and strengthens local institutions so landscapes can ultimately generate their own sustainable revenue.The image of sugarcane at the Super Bowl reminds us that land is political. It carries memories of exploitation, resilience, and identity. If we are serious about healing degraded landscapes—in Puerto Rico, in Mexico, across Latin America and the Caribbean, and beyond—we must ensure that the finance being used to restore does not become a new form of enclosure. Only then will restoration break from the patterns of the past.


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Alejandro Díaz Loyola
Alejandro Díaz Loyola is the landscape finance specialist at Commonland.
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