Cuba is quickly nearing a point of no return as the U.S. weaponizes its Venezuelan oil supplies

Jordan Blum
Fri, February 20, 2026 


A man walks past graffiti celebrating the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro on a street in Havana on February 16, 2026.(YAMIL LAGE / AFP—Getty Images))

The Trump administration’s embargo on Cuba—effectively cutting off 75% of the communist-ruled island’s crude oil supplies—is quickly pushing the Havana leadership to a point of no return amid escalating fuel shortages and frequent blackouts.

Some six weeks after the U.S. violently ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and with the U.S. having seized control of that country’s oil production, geopolitical and energy analysts said the next “domino” in Cuba is close to toppling under economic pressure unless a diplomatic resolution is reached.

The evolving situation could include potential conflict with Russia, which is aiming to supply Cuba with oil tanker shipments. While a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis 64 years later is highly unlikely, the U.S. could end up seizing Russian tankers, something that has already occurred with ships en route to Venezuela. Such moves would escalate already heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia, said Skip York, a global energy expert for Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

“The fuel situation in Cuba will get pretty dire pretty fast. That’s going to put tremendous pressure on the government because energy—whether it’s oil or electricity—is the lifeblood of any country,” York said.

“And, if the U.S. stays the course, they will board any sanctioned tankers that are heading toward Cuba,” he added.

Not only is Cuba facing dwindling vehicle and jet fuel supplies, but most of Cuba’s electric grid relies on crude oil, too. The island has very limited natural gas and renewable energy assets.

Cuba produces only a little bit of oil domestically, not nearly enough to sustain itself. About 75% of Cuba’s oil imports typically come from Venezuela and Mexico. The U.S. cut off Venezuelan supplies to Cuba at the beginning of this year. And a Trump executive order at the end of January, which threatened tariffs against countries that supply Cuba with petroleum, led to Mexico reluctantly ceasing exports as well. In the meantime, Cuba is leaning on whatever reserve stockpiles it has left.

Cuba says Trump is creating a dangerous precedent of using tariffs to strangle and starve individual nations. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel accused the Trump administration of acting with a “fascist, criminal, and genocidal nature of a clique that has hijacked the interests of the American people for purely personal ends.”

Russia said the U.S. is trying to “suffocate” Cuba, and said it planned to send more oil supplies to Cuba. But how such plans would play out is not yet clear. In the meantime, Russia has suspended civilian flights to Cuba after evacuating its tourists from there.

The White House has confirmed the embargo remains in effect, and argues that it is holding Cuba accountable for its alleged long support of regional instability and terrorism.

Speaking earlier this week on Air Force One, Trump said, “Cuba is right now a failed nation, and they don’t even have jet fuel to get airplanes to take off. They’re clogging up their runway.”

Trump argued the Cuban leadership “should absolutely make a deal,” not stating what the U.S. is demanding in return.

“We are talking,” Trump added. “In the meantime, there’s an embargo. There’s no oil, there’s no money, there’s no anything.”
What happens next

Forcing political change in Cuba—even if not a full regime change—could mark a strong accomplishment for the Trump administration. Prominent figures in Trump’s inner circle include “Florida hawks” such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is Cuban-American, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, said Fernando Ferreira, director of the geopolitical risk service at Rapidan Energy Group.

“It could mark the success of this ‘Donroe Doctrine,’ accomplishing regime change or political change in two U.S. adversaries in the region,” Ferreira said. “Starting with Venezuela, there’s a very clear domino impact. Cuba has been largely dependent on Venezuela for oil supplies and for political cover.

“The lack of fuel supplies into Cuba is having fairly severe impacts,” Ferreira added. “It’s going to have a humanitarian impact in Havana and the rest of Cuba. What I don’t know is how quickly or to what extent it’s going to lead to political change on the island.”

Rubio is taking the lead on such matters with a “pretty long leash,” York said. Rubio is likely to be more “adversarial” with Cuba than typical U.S. diplomats, but it still comes down to Trump being the moderator and dealmaker.

Diaz-Canel is the first non-Castro to lead Cuba in 60 years. A key question is whether he is willing to find a resolution with the U.S. or if he will be perceived as weak for compromising with Trump, York said.

“[Diaz-Canel] might be concerned about his legacy and his physical safety if he’s the weak chain that broke,” York added.

It’s unclear what the U.S. would require in a deal as well. Is leadership change on the table? An opening up of the communist economy? Reducing Cuba’s ties with Russia and China?

What we do know is that Cuba’s leadership has relatively limited options and that the energy crisis could further escalate rapidly.

“Cuba is a pretty opaque part of the Western Hemisphere,” York said. “My guess is over the next few weeks, few months, that curtain is going to get drawn back a little bit, and we’re going to get to see the inner workings of the Cuban government.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

BIOLOGIAL WARFARE BY ANYOTHER NAME

Trump’s total blockade buries Cuba in rubbish

Lily Shanagher
Fri, February 20, 2026
THE TELEGRAPH



People hold their nose while walking through the rubbish-strewn Havana streets - Ramon Espinosa/AP


Outside a decrepit colonial mansion in Havana where clothes hang from its iron balcony, the hot Cuban sun beats down on an enormous pile of rubbish on the street corner.

People walk by and empty bags onto the growing mound while others pick through the plastic packaging and cardboard boxes, hoping to find something of use. The stench rises as food putrefies in the Caribbean heat.

Like much else in Cuba, the bin collection has ground to a halt in recent weeks as the island spirals into an economic freefall.

In the capital, only 44 of Cuba’s 106 rubbish trucks can operate, following Donald Trump’s ban on oil or money reaching the island’s shores.

After the capture of Nicolas Maduro, the former leader of Venezuela and long-time ally of Havana, the country went from receiving 35,000 barrels of oil a day to none, pushing it into a full-blown crisis.

1902 Cuban crude imports

Not satisfied, Mr Trump is now reportedly considering a naval blockade to bar shipments reaching the island.

He is backed by Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, who, like most Cuban-Americans, is vehemently opposed to Fidel Castro and his legacy.

Alexei, 72, a retired chemistry teacher who studied in the Soviet Union, told The Telegraph that the blockade is “killing the people at a slow burn”.

With oil reserves and food drying up, blackouts lasting up to 24 hours have shuttered businesses and hospitals.

A vintage car drives past garbage piled up on a street in Havana - YAMIL LAGE / AFP via Getty Images

Public transport has all but ceased, emptying the streets and putting an end to socialising after the 6pm sunsets.




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The litter has reportedly led to outbreaks of disease, but with no medical equipment or fuel, hospitals have been forced to close. Pharmacies place signs in the windows: no medicine here.

The government has introduced emergency measures, shortening school and working weeks and rationing fuel.

It has banned the refilling of jets for the next month and closed hotels. But with Canada and Russia evacuating tourists and the UK advising against all but essential travel to the island, Cuba now risks losing one of its last economic lifelines.

On Avenida Linea, a straight strip of road cutting through the Vedado district in Havana just a few blocks from the sea, only the petrol station is lit up. Drivers inch towards the glow, queuing for the dwindling fuel reserves.

A woman pushes a broken down car as Cuba continues to suffer from dwindling fuel reserves - Ernesto Mastrascusa/EPA/Shutterstock

One of those is José, a middle-aged man who joined the line in his blue 1980s Lada at 5am. By midday, he was still there. “The waiting isn’t the worst part,” he told The Telegraph. “It’s the uncertainty.”

“Today we’re limited to 20 litres per person and we have to pay in dollars. But tomorrow, when there isn’t any oil left to supply, what’s going to happen?” he asks quietly.

Since Castro toppled the US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959, Washington has sought to exact revenge through attacks including the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1962 and an embargo that lasted until 2015, when Barack Obama thawed relations.

But when Mr Trump returned to office, he again designated Cuba a state sponsor of terror and reinstated sanctions. Even Cuba’s long-time allies Mexico, Russia and China have offered little more than humanitarian aid shipments and statements of criticism.

The streets are littered with rubbish in Havana following Trump’s intervention - Photo © 2026

Miguel Diaz-Canel, the president, has refused to give in to US pressure. But the obstinacy of the government is building resentment among Cubans suffering their worst crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union, especially young people who say they never benefited from the “fruits” of the revolution.

Mariana, 25, a fifth-year medical student, rode her electric motorbike to classes at the Fajardo Hospital by Revolution Plaza only to discover they had been suspended.

“I don’t care if the United States invades us or does the same thing it did in Venezuela. I want change. If it’s worse, so be it. At least it will be different,” she tells The Telegraph. “My whole life has been the same here; I can’t take it any more. I hope the US comes. I hope we get annexed, anything but this.”


Alexei added: “What they’re doing is killing the people at a slow burn, not the government. Do you think government officials are affected by the apagones [blackouts] or the food shortages?

“They have food; they have generators. The US will only create more hate toward them among Cubans. They won’t succeed in pushing the population to topple the regime this way.”

Bloggers have taken to social media to share the difficulties of daily life in the country. A meal can cost £4 to make. With high inflation and a rapidly devaluing currency, some salaries are £13 a month.

The lack of fuel has driven prices up to as much as $10 (£8) a litre. The few taxis that run at the moment are mainly thanks to drivers who have stockpiled fuel and are running on those reserves, pushing prices higher.

Many people, especially retirees on state pensions, line up outside bodegas with their libretas [ration books] that provide just one bread roll a day. But the wealthy, or those receiving money from family abroad, visit private shops laden with goods at a high price. A carton of eggs can cost 2,800 pesos in a country where the average monthly state salary is 6,900 pesos.

In Nuevo Vedado, a middle-class residential neighbourhood in the capital, a primary school is unable to function without electricity, says its principal, Álvaro, 55. “Without power, classrooms are plunged into darkness, water can’t be pumped and sent to the school’s reservoir, and it becomes impossible to cook for the children in the cafeteria,” he tells The Telegraph.

Locals walk past garbage piled up on a street in Havana - YAMIL LAGE / AFP via Getty Images

William LeoGrande, a professor at American University in Washington, says that “denying a country access to energy in the absence of a state of war, in order to coerce it into concessions by impoverishing the civilian population, can be considered a crime against humanity.”

The United Nations warns Cuba is moving towards humanitarian “collapse”. But experts cast doubt on the efficacy of Washington’s plans beyond mass human suffering.

“Cuba is not Venezuela,” Sebastian Arcos, interim director of the Cuba Research Institute in Florida, told The Telegraph. “This is a fully totalitarian regime entrenched for almost 70 years.”

While Venezuela was a largely self-serving government led by Mr Maduro with a clear chain of command, Cuba operates as a coalition of factions dominated by the Communist Party and military. It is rooted in ideology, rendering the chance of finding another Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s cooperative new president, unlikely within Cuba’s tightly controlled regime.

Tom Long, a professor of International Relations at the University of Warwick, told The Telegraph: “The cynical ploy of the Trump administration is that if you deepen misery enough the people will ultimately rebel.

“But a lot of revolutions don’t necessarily happen at the lowest point, because people are too desperate. A lot of the Cuban population is so focused on surviving day-to-day, they’re not necessarily plotting overthrows – or have the means and wherewithal to launch one.”

Rachel, 30, sums up this resigned fatigue that has become routine: “Luckily I have gas to cook, but many people now have to cook with charcoal. Here, we’re moving backwards.” She pauses. “We have no choice but to breathe and try to keep going.”