Gaza death toll a third higher than previously thought

Lilia Sebouai
Wed, February 18, 2026 


The study’s lead author said the research not only confirmed the Ministry of Health’s death toll but indicated a substantial undercount - EYAD BABA/AFP via Getty Images


The number of people killed in Gaza during the first 15 months of the war is a third higher than previously reported, according to a major new study in The Lancet.

The research is the first to use independent, population-based survey methods in Gaza, rather than relying on individual death records from Gaza’s Ministry of Health.

It estimates about 75,200 people were killed violently by early January 2025 – roughly a third more than the 49,000 reported.

Another 16,300 people died from indirect or non-violent causes, including pre-existing health conditions and the broader collapse of essential services during the conflict.

“Our research confirms that the Ministry of Health is not inflating the numbers – in fact, their figures were a substantial undercount, not an over count,” said Prof Michael Spagat, the study’s lead author, a Professor of Economics at Royal Holloway College, University of London and chair of Every Casualty Counts.

Last month, Haaretz reported that Israel’s military now accepted the body count undertaken by Gaza’s health authorities was likely to be accurate, citing unnamed IDF sources.

The Gaza Health ministry currently puts the death toll at 72,063 since October 7, but says many others remain buried under rubble.

Prof Michael Spagat, lead author of the Lancet study, stressed that the Lancet data only covered the first 15 months of the war.

“Our estimate of roughly 75,000 violent deaths covers the period up to early January 2025. It’s now more than a year out of date,” he told The Telegraph.

“The Ministry’s number for that same period was around 49,000 at the time, but because they continue processing reports, that number has been rising.”

He added: “The 35 per cent gap [roughly a third] reported in our paper should not be treated as some fixed law. It’s indicative of a substantial undercount, not an exact figure.”

It is estimated that about 75,200 people were killed violently by early January 2025 - OMAR AL-QATTAA/AFP via Getty Images

Researchers interviewed a “representative” sample of 2,000 households in Gaza between December 30 2024 and January 5 2025, analysing changes since October 6 2023 and adjusting for displacement and areas that were difficult to reach.

The survey found that the demographic profile of those killed closely matches Gaza’s MoH figures. Women, children, and the elderly accounted for around 56 per cent of violent deaths – within roughly two percentage points of the Ministry’s estimate.

The pattern aligns with earlier research by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions, also published in The Lancet, which used a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis to assess mortality during the first nine months of the war.

The study estimated around 16,300 indirect, non-violent deaths, during the first 15 months of the war, including roughly 8,500 more than would have been expected based on pre-war death rates.

Although substantial, these fatalities were far lower than many previous estimates – a result Prof Spagat said he “wasn’t surprised” by.

“Gaza is not like places such as Sudan or Tigray, where health systems were already extremely weak,” he said.

“Before the war, Gaza had high vaccination rates and relatively strong medical infrastructure. Despite severe damage, and despite aid restrictions, there was still significant international assistance flowing in.”

Prof Spagat noted that indirect deaths did not exceed violent deaths – a point that surprised some observers.

“If anything, what surprised me was that the violent death estimate came out as high as it did,” he said.

Rather than examine each reported death individually, the researchers compared pre-war and wartime mortality to establish the number of excess indirect deaths.

Prof Spagat said this approach provides a clearer picture of the human cost, without getting lost in the uncertainty of deciding case by case whether someone would have died anyway.

The Gaza Health ministry believes many bodies remain buried under rubble - EYAD BABA/AFP via Getty Images

The researchers also adjusted for displacement and areas that were hard to reach.

Three areas – North Gaza governorate, Gaza City, where famine was later confirmed, and Rafah governorate – were inaccessible at the time of the survey.

Rather than exclude them, the researchers interviewed households that had fled these areas and were now living elsewhere in Gaza, ensuring the survey still captured experiences from the hardest-hit zones.

“Normally, you base a survey sample on the most recent population census. But displacement in Gaza made that impossible,” said Prof Spagat.

“Instead, our Palestinian survey partners had been tracking population movements throughout the war – monitoring where tent settlements were set up, which schools became shelters, and how many people were living there.”

Prof Spagat added that the survey had worked well in Gaza – a small, densely populated enclave, with existing survey infrastructure – but may not work elsewhere.

“I would not say this is easily replicable in places like Sudan. That would be vastly more challenging,” he said.

Prof Spagat said he hopes the findings demonstrate that “huge numbers of indirect deaths are not inevitable in war”.

“What you do matters. The aid system in Gaza – the doctors, the UN infrastructure – likely prevented far more indirect deaths,” he said. “Dismantling that system would make things far worse in the future.”

An Israeli spokesperson told The Telegraph: “The Lancet is not a reputable source when it comes to assessing the death toll in Gaza.”