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Thursday, December 04, 2025

German Unions and the Working Poor

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

Ever since Shipler’s Pulitzer Prize-winning The Working Poor: Invisible in America (2004), the term working poor has entered the realm beyond industrial sociology.

Put rather simply, the working poor are workers whose income has fallen below the poverty line. They work but remain under the poverty threshold. They work but are poor – these are the working poor.

In Germany, these are workers with an income of €12.50 [$13] in 2022. These workers make up a whopping 19% of all workers in this country – almost every fifth job.

In a long-awaited and very recent decision, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on November 11, 2025, only partially upheld Denmark’s lawsuit and annulled two provisions in the EU Minimum Wage Directive.

These were criteria for determining and updating wages, and a provision that prevents a reduction in wages. According to the judgment, the EU’s Minimum Wage Directive stands.

German trade unions were relieved by the ECJ’s explanations on the application of the EU Minimum Wage Directive. It is clear that European governments remain obliged to decisively improve collective bargaining. Germany’s government has to do some homework. Three tasks are issued for Germany to beef up low wages:

  1. Laws to support the working poor must come without restrictions.
  2. More generally binding collective agreements (the Allgemeinverbindlichkeitserklärung or AVE) are needed. An AVE is a very specific peculiarity of German labor law. According to German law, such an AVE is issued in accordance with §5 of Germany’s Collective Agreement Act. It means that a collective bargaining agreement becomes binding for all employers and employees not previously bound by collective agreements within an industry and the scope of a collective agreement. In other words, an AVE extends a collective bargaining agreement to all workers in an industry.
  3. Working and labor relations without collective bargaining or an AVE must finally come to an end.

Since German collective agreements cover significantly less than 80% of all workers, Germany’s government is obliged to finally submit an action plan to increase collective bargaining rights.

The EU’s Minimum Wage Directive is intended to protect workers from poverty and to promote appropriate minimum wages and collective bargaining standards. The EU still does not set a minimum wage, but it does provide – among other things – a reference point of 60% of a median wage. This should guide EU member states.

Germany’s minimum wage will increase in 2026: €13.90 per hour (January 1, 2026) and €14.60 (January 1, 2027) – even though German trade unions argued that it requires €15 per hour. This was not quite reached. A survey conducted by Forsa (June 2025) showed that two thirds (66%) of Germans support a minimum wage of €15 ($17.50].

Overall, the balance sheet for Germany over the past 10 years is rather modest compared to other EU countries. Germany’s low-income workers have benefited in particular. In East Germany, the increase has been substantial. The minimum wage has helped reduce wage inequalities across various regions of Germany.

This is by no means self-starting. If there are only small increases, as is currently the case, this weakens the positive effect of the minimum wage. Stronger increases are needed.

While wage development in the lower income range almost stagnated between 2008 and 2013, there were significant increases after the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015, especially in Eastern Germany.

The working poor in Germany are not just individual cases. There is a structure of low-wage employment in Germany. Those affected by low wages are not a homogeneous group. On the contrary, certain employment groups carry a particularly high risk of earning only a low hourly wage.

This is particularly pronounced among mini-jobbers at 80.8% of a full income. They have a much higher low-wage risk than full-time workers. The next groups are part-time workers. At about 23.8%, women have a higher low-wage risk than men at 14.6%. Temporary employees are significantly more often affected by low wages, and the same applies to non-permanent employees.

Age also continues to influence the risk of low wages. About half of all workers under the age of 25 earn an hourly wage below the low-wage threshold. For older workers – over the age of 54 – the low-wage risk is slightly above average at just under 22%. Migrant workers also face an above-average low-wage risk at 29.5%.

On the other hand, workers with an academic degree (8%) have a significantly lower risk of low wages than workers with vocational training. However, workers with other qualifications carry a much higher risk of low wages.

Despite the high low-wage risk among low-skilled workers, 57% of low-wage earners had completed vocational training and another 14% even had a university degree. The vast majority of low-wage workers had a medium or high skill level. A little more than one quarter of low-wage workers have no formal qualification.

Women accounted for around 60% of all low-wage employees. The majority of low-wage earners come from the middle-age groups (25–54 years: 54%). However, the share of older people (from age 54) is 29.5%.

Low-wage jobs in Germany are by no means limited to part-time employees and mini-jobbers. Most of Germany’s low-paid workers have completed vocational training, are employed on an indefinite basis, or work full-time. This indicates that low-wage jobs are by no means confined to the fringe. Instead, these workers at the very bottom can be found in standard forms of employment. In other words, the precariat is advancing into standard employment.

While being part of Germany’s low-wage sector, migrant workers assure the prosperity of Germany. Yet even cleaners struggle for dignity. These migrant workers – while ensuring Germany’s prosperity – live in barracks and sleep in their cars. Those who are cheated out of their wages are threatened and beaten. Recently, Germany’s influential “Deutschlandradio” called it “Germany, Your Slaves” – Deutschland, Deine Sklaven.

Migrant workers in Germany’s low-wage sector are considered invisible. They are confined to the lowest level of the pyramid. Capitalism produces a hierarchical labor market, hierarchical workplace structures, and hierarchical work regimes.

Yet, in Germany’s low-wage sectors, it is the migrant who makes the hotel beds, washes towels, cleans offices, brushes toilets, sterilizes surgery theatres, works as a window cleaner, labors in aged-care facilities, empties rubbish bins, and cares for the elderly and the lodgers. Low-paid migrant workers dig up asparagus, harvest strawberries, and pick apples.

They build apartments, pave sidewalks, clean universities, wash your car, clean street furniture, deliver parcels, cool airline food, and scrub shopping-mall floors. They slaughter pigs, cut up chickens, flip burgers, make kebabs, do the checkout at petrol stations, and disassemble turkeys.

They wash and care for old people who are no longer able to do it themselves. They rush through warehouses and deliver the pizza, jeans, and Christmas presents.

Behind these statistics are real lives and real work situations of migrants who labor in different industries in Germany’s low-wage sector. Just as Pulitzer Prize winner Shipler says in Invisible in America, those who clean up Germany’s Stadtbild and feed Germany’s growing number of elderly in care homes are Germany’s invisibles – they have no voice.

Yet they come from Poland, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, and many other countries.

Even though Germans often do not see them – or do not want to see them – migrants work in many industries, including construction and slaughterhouses, assuring that even the neo-Nazi AfD voter can have his beloved Schnitzel and Hackbraten, as well as keeping Germany’s infamous Autobahn highways free of snow and ice.

Virtually all of this underpins Germany’s position as one of the world’s great economies – third place after the USA and China. Measured by GDP, it stands at 5 trillion US dollars (2025).

Meanwhile, corporate managers have invented a sheer endless number of employment-contracts to ensure low-wage workers remain confined to the precariat – outsourcing and subcontracting being only two examples. They work in what Germany’s foremost investigative journalist, Günter Wallraff, called in 1983 Ganz Unten – “down there.” The condition of Germany’s working poor is by no means a new issue.

Then as now, working conditions are defined – impressively and comprehensively – by discrimination, racism, xenophobia, fear, fraud, wage theft, violence, and human trafficking. This is part of everyday life in Germany’s low-wage sector and for far too many migrant workers.

Many of those affected live in the shade – far removed from the glittery world of the neoliberal “winner takes it all” society. Germany’s working poor slog along – often under very poor, unhygienic, illness-causing, and inhumane conditions.

They live in cramped, sometimes unsanitary accommodation, working in areas where occupational safety regulations are given little consideration. Thanks to the triumph of the neoliberal anti-state, “less bureaucracy,” “eliminate red tape,” etc. ideology, workplace inspections are rare, if they happen at all.

Meanwhile, health insurance is often insufficient, irregular, or simply non-existent. No help in the case of illness or accident. More often than not, the boundaries between legal and illegal business are blurred – this too is nothing new in capitalism, as Friedrich Engels noted in his 1844 classic on the condition of the working class, generally defined by exploitation.

This occurs not just in the mentioned industries, but reflects structural conditions that are, seemingly, very difficult to change, as the working poor are hit with a triple whammy:

  • Education: poor education (not knowing their rights);
  • Insecurity: frequent job changes due to high insecurity; and
  • Threats: threats by their bosses – which, in the case of migrant workers, include threats of deportation.

Yet there are strategies of open and covert resistance, such as:

  1. Evidence: collecting evidence (wagetheftisacrime.com, photographing timesheets, etc.);
  2. Online: exchanging information via WhatsApp groups or Facebook forums;
  3. Information: gathering information on minimum-wage law;
  4. Unions: calling local trade unions or NGOs (e.g., Amnesty International); and
  5. Solidarity: creating solidarity among co-workers – what Pyotr Kropotkin once called “mutual aid.”Email
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Thomas Klikauer has over 800 publications (including 12 books) and writes regularly for BraveNewEurope (Western Europe), the Barricades (Eastern Europe), Buzzflash (USA), Counterpunch (USA), Countercurrents (India), Tikkun (USA), and ZNet (USA). One of his books is on Managerialism (2013).

Imagining the Merger of “Refuse Fascism” and “The General Strike”

Source: Nobody's Voice

This is the time when everyone has a choice to make – actually a series of choices all premised on a single decision. Every US adult will consider whether or not to resist fascism. Some of us may be in better position to act – those with vulnerable immigration status, or with connections to those labeled as state enemies may be at risk for Draconian retaliation, while many of us can engage in substantial resistance with little immediate likelihood of state retaliation.

Once the fight to bring an end to US fascism becomes a personal cause, the subsequent choice involves the means of resistance. Does one conceive of the current white supremacist, saber rattling, misogynistic, oligarchic-capitalist, genocidal regime as a mere blip in the electoral cycle to be parried with a few extra dollars to reelect Chuck Schumer, or does one see the present US predicament as requiring civil disobedience at a pitch never previously imagined? This ought to be a no brainer to anyone who accepts the label of fascism as the accurate way to understand Trump and his regime of billionaires, predators and stooges. Fascism, by definition, seeks to install ongoing repression, to mutilate government bureaucracies and replace officials with grotesque replicas in an act of unacknowledged parody. The sycophantic SCOTUS, the appointment of RFK Jr. as Secretary of Health, the deployment of Pete Hegseth atop the military and Kristi Noem as the head of Homeland Security all together reflect the aura of a screaming nightmare. The first step toward national redemption requires a cold hard gaze.

Perhaps another way to unpack the particular character of US fascism involves seeing it as a manifestation of collapsing empire – fascism has become the default for the longstanding practice of war and colonial extraction. As US global control slides into ruins before the more capable Chinese economic expansion and the BRICS Alliance, the corporate gaze turns inward with the aspiration to squeeze the wealth, once acquired abroad, from its own citizenry. Picture an ordinary person during a critical food shortage whose famished eyes alight upon its own cats and dogs. Our citizens have historically been blind to the corporate policies of war and extraction upon which our collective prosperity has been built, but now it is our medical insurance, our schools, our food, our rent being ransacked for profit. If the US supported fascist regimes abroad who engaged in cruel atrocities, now it comes home in the guise of border security or “replacement theory” rhetoric. We, the ordinary citizens of this terrible predatory empire have abruptly been transformed into the Vietnamese villagers of long ago. This is not indulgent metaphor – the troops march into our neighborhoods, and we have a brand new sense of identity – “the enemy within.”

The people of Vietnam unknowingly instructed future US generations about the tactics of resistance. US power proved a half century ago to be a mirage – the resolve and ferocity of a poor nation exposed the vulnerabilities of a corrupt empire. The lesson was reenacted in Iraq and Afghanistan and may ultimately be reshaped to include the collapse of Israel and Ukraine. The last battle to close down the US Empire will, if I am correct, be centered in New York, Chicago and LA. I am not yet fantasizing about armed guerrilla warfare in downtown DC – the sensible first step involves non-violent civil disobedience.

In previous pieces I have honed in on the organization named after its tactics – “The General Strike.” This group aspires to accumulate some eleven million workers to engage in work stoppages. The number, eleven-million, is not a random figure, but the quantity of opposition that conforms to the 3.5% rule. Social science researchers believe that massive resistance has a precise threshold to upend an oppressive regime.

There are enough different organizations opposed to the Trump regime to confuse many of us – we have “Indivisible,” “No Kings Day,” “Refuse Fascism,” “Democracy Forward,” and a number of other groups. For me, “Refuse Fascism” has the most concise and clear aspiration – the immediate removal of Donald Trump and his regime. Refuse Fascism ticks most boxes for me – the use of non-violent tactics, the aspiration to flood US streets with millions of protesters and the intention to bring together a diverse assortment of factions, all riveted on the single minded goal of getting rid of Trump and his fascist movement.

Perhaps it matters little which organizations provides the inspiration and organizational resolve to fill the streets with protestors, but The General Strike held a webinar last week that struck me as revealing unique and compelling characteristics. Noam Chomsky, in his short pamphlet on “The Occupy Movement,” quoted Howard Zinn’s call to focus “on the countless small actions of unknown people.” Of course, “Occupy” succeeded, albeit too briefly, to create a popular groundswell of passionate resistance with a young, anonymous base.

“The General Strike” webinar seemed to rather consciously court the same constituents as did “Occupy” – young, “unknown” people – but offers a more specific means of resistance. One webinar presenter, introduced simply as, “Ben,” gave a history of the general strike as a time honored tool of the US labor rights struggle. As an elderly, retired worker, I wondered what role I might have. Fortunately, the GS website specifically defines the purpose of retired workers as:

“During the strike, retirees can contribute by boycotting big corporations, providing mutual aid and financial support to striking workers, and doing everything possible to spread the word in the meantime.”

My own chosen role thus becomes – at least for now – “to spread the word.”

The idea that 11 million anonymous folks can bring down the monstrosity of US fascism – a cult of celebrity, of autocratic predators wielding vast sums of money – reprises the David and Goliath narrative. Across the left it has been (ironically) almost impossible to toss off the straight jacket of individualism, and its evil shadow – celebrity. Thus, ones thoughts of the US leftist movement, however vague and fractured it might be, automatically leads us to a hall of names – Bernie Sanders, Zohran Mamdani, AOC, Noem Chomsky, Ralph Nader, Michael Moore, etc. but “The General Strike” heroically refuses to either coopt or create celebrities. We will not be saved by famous heroes, they implicitly tell us. There are, astonishingly, no names promoted on “The General Strike” website. Their “leaders,” appearing on the webinar last Saturday, November, 22, go only by their first names. One of the founders, who hosted the event, identified herself only as “Eliza from upstate New York.” The General Strike Website provides even less detail:

“Two friends living in New York City made this website after Roe V. Wade was overturned in 2022, but the concept of a General Strike dates back centuries.

The General Strike is a decentralized network of people and organizations committed to striking once we reach 3.5% of the U.S. population, or 11 million people. We don’t have a traditional “leader” or hierarchical structure, and no one gets paid to do this work. Instead we have an ever shifting network of organizers, all building towards the General Strike in their own ways.”

I had written several months ago that I wished that this organization would embrace “direct democracy” as a stated goal, but upon my updated reflection, it appears that the revised website consciously strives to promote the egalitarian values that one associates with direct democracy – a system of government in which decisions are made by public referendum or by “citizen’s assemblies” made up of ordinary people chosen via “sortition.” Neither The General Strike website, or its affiliated Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL) convey any explicit, unequivocal aspiration to employ direct democracy as the vehicle to manifest equalitarian, socialist governance, but the decision to imagine leaders as nameless, common people rather intuitively evokes that vibe for me. There is also this quote from the PSL website defining the nature of a new socialist government that aims to sever the themes of narcissism and self-promotion from the act of political administration:

  • Elected officials of the new workers’ government will be paid an average worker’s salary and will receive no special privileges.

Direct Democracy, according to South African Marxist sociologist Michelle Williams, has become a new point of interest among Marxists, and I have written that worker run cooperatives, as proposed by Marxist economist, Richard Wolff, situates direct democracy within the structures of workplace decision making.

For the record, since my last piece on The General Strike, the organization has released a much more detailed set of demands:

“Specific demands will come from leaders and experts of existing fights for racial, economic, gender and environmental justice once we have reached 6M Strike Cards. Stay tuned for updates and submit your input below in the meantime. The broad list includes, but is not limited to:

✔️ Affordable housing

✔️ Climate action

✔️ Constitutional convention

✔️ Criminal justice reform

✔️ Disability rights

✔️ End military aid for occupations and/or ethnic cleansing

✔️ Gun safety

✔️ Immigration reform

✔️ Indigenous rights

✔️ Labor rights & living wages”

✔️ LGBTQIA+ rights

✔️ Paid family & medical leave

✔️ Racial justice

✔️ Repeal Citizens United

✔️ Repeal Right to Work laws

✔️ Reproductive rights

✔️ Student debt reform

✔️ Tax the rich

✔️ Universal healthcare

✔️ Voting rights

✔️ Welfare & child support reform

While some of these demands, such as “repeal citizens united,” and the rather vague, “Constitutional convention,” address the concept of a reimagined political system freed from the control of corporate money, almost all of the other demands focus on basic human rights. We have become so dehumanized that demands for universal health care, an end to military aid for occupation and ethnic cleansing and paid family and medical leave strike us as radical and utopian concepts.

Many of the speakers at The General Strike Webinar identified themselves as members of the above referenced PSL – one of several Marxist factions emerging as key organizational players in the fight against fascism. Like “Refuse Fascism” that gathers a number of diverse members and organizations under the leadership of the “Revolutionary Communist Party (RCP),” The General Strike features an unprecedented collection of perspectives and organizations willing to come together under the organizational leadership of those identifying as Marxists. Socialism has incrementally made its way, despite decades of media propaganda, into mainstream awareness. It is however, not enough to merely give Marxists a grudging seat at the table of public discourse. War, climate/environmental destruction, poverty and fascism have inevitable roots in capitalist greed. Who has more qualifications to lead the battle against fascism than socialist movements?

The General Strike lists a number of partners, including – SEIU 503 sub-local 581 representing Oregon teachers. Indivisible, the children’s rights organization, LATINX Parenting, the environmental group, Troublemakers, and the above mentioned, PSL. This eclectic gathering of organizations reflects the same diversity apparent in Refuse Fascism, a group under the leadership of Bob Avakian’s RCP, whose website now features photos of George Conway, Rachel Maddow, Alex Padilla and JB Pritzker – figures far removed from any association with Marxism. As I have stated already, there are no celebrities, no familiar photos, and no famous people promoted at The General Strike, a seemingly small point, but a very meaningful one for me. I imagined, as I signed my “strike card” for this organization, that my voice will be no less heard than anyone else’s.

Some people will obviously cringe at the thought of allying themselves with an organization in which Marxists have a prominent role. A lifetime of capitalist propaganda has left us broken and confused. However, for me, this is essential. If a movement becomes powerful enough to remove the fascist regime, what then? Do we return to neoliberal democracy and its environmental ruin? The climate/environmental apocalypse cannot, according to Degrowth advocate, Jason Hickel, be addressed under capitalism. The very second demand on The General Strike website is “Climate action.” The PSL website prioritizes ending all fossil fuel and nuclear energy. This is not naïve idealism, but a critical matter of survival.

The General Strike, for me, offers a vision for action – a strategy of civil disobedience as a necessary step to bring an end to US fascism. The General Strike also recognizes the priority of alliances between people with different political views. You don’t have to be a Marxist to engage in a general strike, but the reflexive US tendency to view Marxism through the lens of cold war ideology now becomes a dead weight impeding the task before us. Having explored both “Refuse Fascism” and “The General Strike,” I am impressed that both have embraced a philosophy of coalition building. I am uncertain if either or both factions have attempted to merge together in some way. If not, I hope that sectarianism can be set aside toward our nation’s most critical task.Email

Phil Wilson is a retired mental health worker and union member. His writing has been published in ZNetwork.org, Current Affairs, Counterpunch, Resilience, Mother Pelican, Common Dreams, The Hampshire Gazette, The Common Ground Review, The Future Fire and other publications. Phil's writings are posted regularly at Nobody's Voice (https://philmeow.substack.com/).

Monday, December 01, 2025


Socially compliant automated vehicles: new conceptual framework paves the way for safer mixed-traffic environments




Tsinghua University Press
Conceptual framework for developing socially compliant automated vehicles (SCAVs) 

image: 

The proposed conceptual framework integrates sensing, socially‑compliant decision‑making, safety constraints, bidirectional behavioral adaptation, and spatial‑temporal memory to guide future SCAV development.

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Credit: Communications in Transportation Research





Automated vehicles (AVs) hold promise for revolutionizing transportation by improving road safety, traffic efficiency, and overall mobility. Despite the steady advancement in high-level AVs in recent years, the transition to full automation entails a period of mixed traffic, where AVs of varying automation levels coexist with human-driven vehicles (HDVs). Making AVs socially compliant and understood by human drivers is expected to improve the safety and efficiency of mixed traffic. Thus, ensuring AVs’ compatibility with HDVs and social acceptance is crucial for their successful and seamless integration into mixed traffic.

 

Researchers at Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) and RWTH Aachen University (Germany) carried out a study with a comprehensive scoping review to assess the current state of the art in developing socially compliant automated vehicles (SCAVs), identifying key concepts, methodological approaches, and research gaps. They conducted an informal expert interview to discuss the literature review results and identify critical research challenges and expectations towards SCAVs. Based on the scoping review and expert interview input, they designed a conceptual framework for the development of SCAVs and evaluated it using an online survey targeting researchers, technicians, policymakers, and other relevant professionals worldwide. The framework outlines the key capability elements necessary for SCAVs and incorporates crucial considerations across technical, social, and cultural dimensions, effectively bridging theoretical insights with practical applications to achieve socially compliant automation. The conceptual framework provides actionable insights into developing and embedding social compliance in AV systems, enabling scalable and context-sensitive deployment. It can also foster collaboration among academia, industry, and policymakers, ensuring technical innovation aligns with societal needs and regulatory standards, accelerating the path toward SCAV and further towards safe and socially inclusive automated mobility solutions.

 

The study was published on 8 September 2025, in Communications in Transportation Research.

 

“We conducted the first comprehensive scoping review to identify key concepts, methodologies, and research gaps in the emerging field of socially compliant automated driving in mixed traffic,” says Yongqi Dong, lead author and researcher at Delft University of Technology and RWTH Aachen University. “By combining this review with expert interviews and a worldwide survey, we have distilled core requirements for AVs to coexist seamlessly and predictably with human drivers through a conceptual framework.” (The conceptual framework is shown in the figure.)

 

Five methodological pillars

In reviewing 68 pivotal studies on SCAVs, the team clustered existing approaches into five main categories:

 

  • Imitation learning to clone human social driving norms
  • Reinforcement learning with utility-based models
  • Model‑based (e.g., game theory, social‑force models, and driving risk field models) generation of human-like behaviors
  • Socially‑aware trajectory prediction with social factors and machine learning
  • Optimization of social driving parameters balancing safety, comfort, and courtesy

 

Expert insights reveal critical gaps

Through informal interviews with ten AV experts across academia, industry, and government, the authors uncovered key limitations in today’s AVs:

  • Excessive conservatism, leading to inefficient traffic flow
  • Poor interpretation of implicit human cues, from hand gestures to assertive lane changes
  • Inflexibility to diverse driving cultures and styles
  • Lack of bidirectional adaptation, where AVs and human drivers dynamically adjust to each other

 

A novel conceptual framework

To address these gaps, the author team proposes a novel conceptual framework for SCAV (see Image) comprising:

  • Sensing & perception module, fusing multi-modal sensor data
  • Socially‑compliant decision‑making module, embedding social components (including culture, norms, and cues), different driving styles (e.g., aggressive, cautious, pro-social), and bidirectional behavioral adaptation mechanisms
  • Safety constraints module, a real‑time safeguard layer
  • Utility trade‑off mechanisms, balancing individual vehicles’ benefits with network‑level traffic performance
  • Bidirectional behavioral adaptation, enabling AVs to learn from and respond to human drivers’ adaptations (there will be bidirectional iterative adaptations between AVs and human drivers)
  • Spatial‑temporal memory module, continuously updating AV models with past interaction data to facilitate the long- and short-term updating of knowledge and driving rules and contribute to the implementation of bidirectional behavioral adaptation.

 

Global survey validation

An online questionnaire gathered insights from 90 experts across 29 countries. Respondents overwhelmingly endorsed the framework’s key modules, particularly the need for mutual bidirectional adaptation between AVs and human drivers, and highlighted priorities such as anticipation capability, multi-objective optimization, and spatial-temporal memory buffer integration.

 

“Our framework lays a robust foundation for both academia and industry,” concludes Bart van Arem, co‑author from Delft University of Technology. “By integrating social dynamics into AV design, we can pave the way toward mixed‑traffic environments that are safer, more efficient, socially beneficial, and widely accepted.”

 

This research marks a significant step toward realizing the promise of automated vehicles in everyday traffic, ensuring they not only drive safely but also drive in harmony with human behavior and societal expectations.

 

 

The above research is published in Communications in Transportation Research (COMMTR), which is a fully open access journal co-published by Tsinghua University Press and Elsevier. COMMTR publishes peer-reviewed high-quality research representing important advances of significance to emerging transport systems. COMMTR is also among the first transportation journals to make the Replication Package mandatory to facilitate researchers, practitioners, and the general public in understanding and advancing existing knowledge. At its discretion, Tsinghua University Press will pay the open access fee for all published papers in 2025.

Can generative AI improve vehicle trajectory prediction in car-following scenarios?



Tsinghua University Press
Overview of FollowGen. 

image: 

The proposed FollowGen framework consists of four main modules: historical feature encoding, noise scaling strategy and noise addition, car-following vehicular interaction modeling, and condition guided denoising.

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Credit: Communications in Transportation Research




To answer this question, researchers from the University of Wisconsin–Madison, Tongji University, and collaborators developed FollowGen, a conditional diffusion model that integrates historical motion features and inter-vehicle interactions to generate safer and more reliable trajectory predictions for autonomous driving.

                                                              

They published their study on 16 October 2025, in Communications in Transportation Research.

 

“We introduce a scaled noise conditioning mechanism that embeds historical motion features into the forward diffusion process. This allows the model to account for motion-aware uncertainties from the beginning and generate trajectories that better align with real driving behaviors,” says Junwei You, a Ph.D. candidate studying autonomous driving and intelligent transportation.

 

Different performance across diverse driving scenarios
In the study, the research group evaluated FollowGen using multiple real-world datasets, covering both urban and highway environments. They examined car-following situations such as human-driven vehicles following each other, autonomous vehicles following humans, and humans following autonomous vehicles.

 

“This design enables the model to explicitly capture the interaction between leading and following vehicles. As a result, FollowGen delivers consistent improvements over strong baselines, particularly in terms of final displacement accuracy and reliability,” explains Haotian Shi, Associate Professor at Tongji University.

 

Visualization results show how initially chaotic scaled noise progressively evolves into accurate trajectory predictions, demonstrating the effectiveness of combining diffusion models with car-following dynamics.

 

Significant implications for autonomous driving
The findings suggest that incorporating generative AI into trajectory prediction can enhance the safety and robustness of autonomous driving systems. Beyond real-time planning, the model also offers potential applications in large-scale traffic simulation and intelligent transportation system design.

 

“Our research demonstrates that diffusion-based models are not only powerful for uncertainty modeling but can also be adapted to the unique requirements of vehicle interactions on the road. This represents an important step toward safer and more reliable autonomous vehicles,” says Sikai Chen, Assistant Professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

The above research is published in Communications in Transportation Research (COMMTR), which is a fully open access journal co-published by Tsinghua University Press and Elsevier. COMMTR publishes peer-reviewed high-quality research representing important advances of significance to emerging transport systems. COMMTR is also among the first transportation journals to make the Replication Package mandatory to facilitate researchers, practitioners, and the general public in understanding and advancing existing knowledge. At its discretion, Tsinghua University Press will pay the open access fee for all published papers in 2025.