Solar and wind energy sites mapped globally for the first time

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON

 

IMAGE: THIS IS A WIND FARM IN CAITHNESS, SCOTLAND. view more 

CREDIT: SEB DUNNETT

Researchers at the University of Southampton have mapped the global locations of major renewable energy sites, providing a valuable resource to help assess their potential environmental impact.

Their study, published in the Nature journal Scientific Data, shows where solar and wind farms are based around the world - demonstrating both their infrastructure density in different regions and approximate power output. It is the first ever global, open-access dataset of wind and solar power generating sites.

The estimated share of renewable energy in global electricity generation was more than 26 per cent by the end of 2018 and solar panels and wind turbines are by far the biggest drivers of a rapid increase in renewables. Despite this, until now, little has been known about the geographic spread of wind and solar farms and very little accessible data exists.

Lead researcher and Southampton PhD student Sebastian Dunnett explains: "While global land planners are promising more of the planet's limited space to wind and solar energy, governments are struggling to maintain geospatial information on the rapid expansion of renewables. Most existing studies use land suitability and socioeconomic data to estimate the geographical spread of such technologies, but we hope our study will provide more robust publicly available data."

While bringing many environmental benefits, solar and wind energy can also have an adverse effect locally on ecology and wildlife. The researchers hope that by accurately mapping the development of farms they can provide an insight into the footprint of renewable energy on vulnerable ecosystems and help planners assess such effects.

The study authors used data from OpenStreetMap (OSM), an open-access, collaborative global mapping project. They extracted grouped data records tagged 'solar' or 'wind' and then cross-referenced these with select national datasets in order to get a best estimate of power capacity and create their own maps of solar and wind energy sites. The data show Europe, North America and East Asia's dominance of the renewable energy sector, and results correlate extremely well with official independent statistics of the renewable energy capacity of countries.

Study supervisor, Professor Felix Eigenbrod of Geography and Environmental Science at the Southampton comments: "This study represents a real milestone in our understanding of where the global green energy revolution is occurring. It should be an invaluable resource for researchers for years to come, as we have designed it so it can be updated with the latest information at any point to allow for changes in what is a quickly expanding industry."

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Notes to Editors

1) The paper Harmonised global datasets of wind and solar farm locations and power DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-0469-8 is published in the Nature journal Scientific Data and can be found at: https://go.nature.com/2Wfoicj

2) The University of Southampton drives original thinking, turns knowledge into action and impact, and creates solutions to the world's challenges. We are among the top 100 institutions globally (QS World University Rankings 2019). Our academics are leaders in their fields, forging links with high-profile international businesses and organisations, and inspiring a 22,000-strong community of exceptional students, from over 135 countries worldwide. Through our high-quality education, the University helps students on a journey of discovery to realise their potential and join our global network of over 200,000 alumni. http://www.southampton.ac.uk

3) For more information about Geography and Environmental Science at the University of Southampton visit: https://www.southampton.ac.uk/geography/index.page

For further information contact:

Peter Franklin, Media Relations, University of Southampton. Tel: 07748 321087 Email: p.franklin@southampton.ac.uk

http://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/contact-press-team.page

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Public health training in climate change: What are prospective employers thinking?

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY'S MAILMAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH

May 4, 2020 -- Researchers at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health found that 92 percent of employers who responded to a survey on climate change and public health reported need for public health professionals with training in climate change will very likely increase in the next 5 to 10 years. While graduates of public health programs who focus on climate change are in demand in the current job market as well, these positions appear to be just a small proportion of the total number of jobs available in the field of public health. The findings are published online in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.

"It is clear from our analysis that current employers value a host of skills and competencies such as knowledge of climate mitigation, health equity and climate justice, pollution-health consequences and causes, risk assessment, and policy analysis, among others," said Heather Krasna, MS, assistant dean and director, Career Services at Columbia Mailman School. "At the same time, we recognize that predicting future workforce needs with historical data or surveys does not give a complete picture of the disruptive reality created by climate change. We cannot model the emerging future from prior trends only, but also must adopt new paradigms of education."

The researchers analyzed 16 years' worth of public health job postings for their projections of the skills needed for this future workforce using keyword searches, and survey responses from prospective employers of public health graduates focusing on climate change. In addition to searching keywords or a combination of terms on Indeed.com and LinkedIn, the authors were provided access to 32,093 job postings on the free job board managed by the Association of Schools and Programs of Public Health (ASPPH). The researchers found a statistically significant increase in the number of jobs in the ASPPH job board which mentioned climate change or global warming over the last 16 years.

A search of keywords "climate change" OR "global warming" on Indeed.com in mid-December 2019, found 2423 results, of which 159 also mentioned "public health." Thus, approximately 6.6 percent of the search results on the job board related to climate change had an overlap with public health (159 of 2423). An Indeed.com search for ("public health" OR "environmental health" OR epidemiology OR "health policy") in late December, found 37,490 public health-related jobs, of which approximately 0.4 percent also mentioned climate change or global warming. Using the National Cancer Institute's SOCcer (Standardized Occupation Coding for Computer-assisted Epidemiological Research) system the researchers analyzed organizations, job titles and descriptions.

To assess the views of current employers who are likely to need candidates with training in both public health and climate change, the researchers consulted with experts in both climate change and public health education, and included survey questions regarding specific competencies based on the current curriculum of Columbia University's Climate and Health Certificate program.

"For those institutions creating new training programs focusing on both climate change and public health, it will be important to assess whether their graduates will be in demand in the labor market, and if so, which sectors are most interested in hiring candidates with these skills," noted Krasna.

While the Mailman School research team describes the current state of the job market for public health graduates with climate change training as "emerging," there are relatively few roles currently available specifically for a graduate with a master's level public health degree and a focus in climate change. Notwithstanding, it is likely that graduates would benefit from training in climate change-related competencies, they noted, especially as we face the enormity of unpredictable global issues such as climate change.

"The scope and framing of our study focused primarily on the role of educational institutions in preparing graduates to solve the problems of today, and to meet the demands of today's employers," said Krasna. "However, we believe that universities provide much more than education, research, and service to their communities; they also take on an essential role moving our world toward sustainability."

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Co-authors are Katarzyna Czabanowska, Maastricht University; Shan Jiang, Simran Khadka, Haruka Morita, Julie Kornfeld and Jeffrey Shaman, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health.

Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

Founded in 1922, the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health pursues an agenda of research, education, and service to address the critical and complex public health issues affecting New Yorkers, the nation and the world. The Columbia Mailman School is the seventh largest recipient of NIH grants among schools of public health. Its nearly 300 multi-disciplinary faculty members work in more than 100 countries around the world, addressing such issues as preventing infectious and chronic diseases, environmental health, maternal and child health, health policy, climate change and health, and public health preparedness. It is a leader in public health education with more than 1,300 graduate students from 55 nations pursuing a variety of master's and doctoral degree programs. The Columbia Mailman School is also home to numerous world-renowned research centers, including ICAP and the Center for Infection and Immunity. For more information, please visit http://www.mailman.columbia.edu.

Study shows how microorganisms survive in harsh environments

U.S. ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY  

IMAGE: IN NORTHERN CHILE'S ATACAMA DESERT, ONE OF THE DRIEST PLACES ON EARTH, MICROORGANISMS LIVE BENEATH THIN LAYERS OF ROCK TO GAIN SOME PROTECTION FROM HARSH WINDS AND SOLAR RADIATION. WATER,... view more 

CREDIT: (COURTESY DAVID KISAILUS, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - IRVINE)

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. -- In northern Chile's Atacama Desert, one of the driest places on Earth, microorganisms are able to eke out an existence by extracting water from the rocks they colonize.

An Army-funded project by researchers at the University of California, Irvine, Johns Hopkins University and University of California, Riverside gained an in-depth understanding of the mechanisms by which some cyanobacteria, an ancient group of photosynthetic microbes, survive in harsh environments.

The new insights, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, demonstrate how life can flourish in places without much water in evidence - including Mars - and how people living in arid regions may someday be able to procure hydration from available minerals.

"The Army has a strong interest in how microorganisms well-adapted to extreme environments can be exploited for novel applications such as material synthesis and power generation within these harsh fielded environments," said Dr. Robert Kokoska, program manager, Army Research Office, an element of U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command's Army Research Laboratory. "This study provides valuable clues for uncovering the evolved design strategies used by these native desert-dwelling microbes to maintain their viability in the face of multiple environmental challenges."

Through work in the field and laboratory experiments, the research team focused on the interactions of Chroococcidiospsis, a desiccation-resistant species of cyanobacteria that is found in deserts around the world, and gypsum, a water containing calcium sulfate-based mineral. The colonizing lifeforms exist beneath a thin layer of rock that gives them a measure of protection against the Atacama's extreme temperature, high solar irradiance and battering winds.

Co-author Jocelyne DiRuggiero, JHU associate professor of biology, traveled to the remote desert to collect gypsum samples and brought them back to her labs in the United States. She cut small pieces, where microorganisms could be found, and sent them to UCI for materials analysis.

In one of the most striking findings of the study, the researchers learned that the microorganisms change the very nature of the rock they occupy. By extracting water, they cause a phase transformation of the material - from gypsum to anhydrite, a dehydrated mineral.

According to DiRuggiero, the impetus for the published work came when Wei Huang, a UCI post-doctoral scholar in materials science & engineering, spotted data showing an overlap in concentrations of anhydrite and cyanobacteria in the gypsum samples collected in the Atacama.

"Our analysis of the regions of rock where microbes were colonized revealed a dehydrated phase of calcium sulfate, suggesting that they extract water from the rock to survive," said David Kisailus, lead author and UCI professor of materials science & engineering. "We wanted to do some more controlled experiments to validate that hypothesis."

DiRuggiero's team then allowed the organisms to colonize half-millimeter cubes of rocks, called coupons, under two different conditions, one in the presence of water, to mimic a high-humidity environment, and the other completely dry. In the midst of moisture, the gypsum did not transform to the anhydrite phase.

"They didn't need water from the rock, they got it from their surroundings," Kisailus said. "But when they were put under stressed conditions, the microbes had no alternative but to extract water from the gypsum, inducing this phase transformation in the material."

Kisailus' team used a combination of advanced microscopy and spectroscopy to examine the interactions between the biological and geological counterparts, finding that the organisms bore into the material like tiny miners by excreting a biofilm containing organic acids, Kisailus said.

Huang used a modified electron microscope equipped with a Raman spectrometer to discover that the organisms used the acid to penetrate the rock in specific crystallographic directions - only along certain planes where they could more easily access water existing between faces of calcium and sulfate ions.

Kisailus said the project was a great demonstration of interdisciplinary research between microbiologists and materials scientists that may, one day, open doors to other forms of scientific discovery.

"Scientists have suspected for a long time that microorganisms might be able to extract water from minerals, but this is the first demonstration of it," DiRuggiero said. "This is an amazing survival strategy for microorganisms living at the dry limit for life, and it provides constraints

Life on the rocks helps scientists understand how to survive in extreme environments

JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: MICROORGANISMS IN GREEN COLONIZE GYPSUM ROCK TO EXTRACT WATER FROM IT. JOHNS HOPKINS AND UCI RESEARCHERS RAN LAB EXPERIMENTS TO UNDERSTAND THE MECHANISMS OF SURVIVAL FOR THESE CYNANOBACTERIA, CONFIRMING THAT... view more 

CREDIT: DAVID KISAILUS / UCI

BY STUDYING HOW THE TINIEST ORGANISMS IN THE ATACAMA DESERT OF CHILE, ONE OF THE DRIEST PLACES ON EARTH, EXTRACT WATER FROM ROCKS, RESEARCHERS AT THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE, AND U.C. RIVERSIDE REVEALED HOW, AGAINST ALL ODDS, LIFE CAN EXIST IN EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS.

A report of the findings published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences show how life can flourish in places without much water - including Mars, which has an environment similar to the Atacama - and how people living in arid regions may someday be able to procure hydration from available minerals.

"Scientists have suspected for a long time that microorganisms might be able to extract water from minerals, but this is the first demonstration of it," says Jocelyne DiRuggiero, associate professor of biology at the Johns Hopkins University and the paper's co-author.

"This is an amazing survival strategy for microorganisms living at the dry limit for life, and it provides constraints to guide our search for life elsewhere."

The research team focused on Chroococcidiospsis, a species of cyanobacteria that is found in deserts around the world, and gypsum, a calcium sulfate-based mineral that contains water. The colonizing lifeforms exist beneath a thin layer of rock that gives them protection against the Atacama's extreme temperature, battering winds and blistering sun.

DiRuggiero traveled to the remote desert to collect gypsum samples, which she brought back to her lab, cut into small pieces where the microorganisms could be found and sent to David Kisailus, professor of materials science & engineering at UCI, for materials analysis.

In one of the most striking findings of the study, the researchers learned that the microorganisms change the very nature of the rock they occupy. By extracting water, they cause a phase transformation of the material - from gypsum to anhydrite, a dehydrated mineral.

According to DiRuggiero, the study's inspiration came when Wei Huang, a UCI post-doctoral scholar in materials science & engineering, spotted data showing an overlap in concentrations of anhydrite and cyanobacteria in the gypsum samples collected in the Atacama.

DiRuggiero's team then allowed the organisms to colonize half-millimeter cubes of rocks, called coupons, under two different conditions: one in the presence of water, to mimic a high-humidity environment, and the other completely dry. In the presence of moisture, the gypsum did not transform to the anhydrite phase.

"They didn't need water from the rock, they got it from their surroundings," said Kisailus. "But when they were put under stressed conditions, the microbes had no alternative but to extract water from the gypsum, inducing this phase transformation in the material."

Kisailus' team used a combination of advanced microscopy and spectroscopy to examine the interactions between the biological and geological counterparts, finding that the organisms bore into the material like tiny miners by excreting a biofilm containing organic acids, Kisailus said.

Huang used a modified electron microscope equipped with a Raman spectrometer to discover that the organisms used the acid to penetrate the rock in specific crystallographic directions - only along certain planes where they could more easily access water existing between faces of calcium and sulfate ions.

"Does it mean there is life on Mars? We cannot say, but it gives us an idea of how crafty microorganisms can be," says DiRuggiero.

The findings may also help researchers develop other practical applications for defense. "The Army has a strong interest in how microorganisms well-adapted to extreme environments can be exploited for novel applications such as material synthesis and power generation within these harsh fielded environments," adds Robert Kokoska, program manager, Army Research Office, an element of U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command's Army Research Office.

"This study provides valuable clues for uncovering the evolved "design strategies" used by these native desert-dwelling microbes to maintain their viability in the face of multiple environmental challenges."

Funding for this project was provided by the Army Research Office and NASA.

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Already vulnerable, gig economy workers in SF suffer during pandemic, survey finds

Unique in-person survey establishes new baseline, while online survey provides a snapshot of pandemic's effects

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SANTA CRUZ

IMAGE: A NEW SURVEY OF APP-BASED RIDE-HAILING AND FOOD AND GROCERY-DELIVERY WORKERS IN SAN FRANCISCO UNDERSCORES THE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY OF WORKERS IN THE GIG ECONOMY--AND THE CORONAVIRUS HAS MADE THEIR PLIGHT... view more 

CREDIT: UC SANTA CRUZ

A new survey of app-based ride-hailing and food and grocery-delivery workers in San Francisco underscores the financial vulnerability of workers in the gig economy--and the coronavirus has made their plight much worse, according to findings released today (Tuesday, May 5) by researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz.

The unique, in-person survey reached 643 workers with Uber, Lyft, Doordash, GrubHub, Instacart, and Shipt early this year. When the shelter-in-place order took effect, researchers developed an additional two-week, online survey to capture the effects of the pandemic on app-based workers--a growing population that enjoys little job security and few employment rights.

The baseline survey reveals a workforce that is 56% immigrant, mostly male, and that struggles to make ends meet, with many relying on public assistance despite working an average of 40 hours per week. Since the pandemic, the online survey revealed, more than half have lost 75-100% of their income. The findings were published in a report titled, "On-demand and on-the-edge: Ride-hailing and Delivery Workers in San Francisco."

"This is an incredibly vulnerable workforce, and many were just on the edge before the coronavirus crisis," said lead researcher Chris Benner, a professor of environmental studies and sociology and the director of the Institute for Social Transformation at UCSC. "The crisis has put them over the edge. Because of their employment status, they fall through a lot of cracks in the relief packages that have been approved by the state and federal governments."

The initial survey was conducted over six weeks from February 1 through mid-March. Survey takers recruited participants through the apps themselves by hiring workers and asking if they'd like to participate. The 20-minute survey was administered in person, and those who participated received a $20 gift card. The response rate was 70% among ride-hailing workers and 15% among food-delivery workers.

The outbreak of the coronavirus crisis prompted the research team to pivot to an online survey, which was conducted the second and third weeks of April. Participants were recruited through organized networks, including closed Facebook groups, and a total of 219 app-based workers responded.

"We surveyed the same workforce at two different points in time," said Benner. "The first gives us a picture of these workers under normal work circumstances, and the second is a snapshot of the impacts of COVID on this workforce."

Full-time work but not enough to get by

The baseline survey, which reached 407 ride-hailing workers and 236 food-delivery workers, revealed a workforce on the margins:

• 21% of participants have no health insurance, and another 30% depend on public insurance sources, such as Covered California or Medi-Cal
• 15% receive some form of public assistance, including 13% of food-delivery workers who depend on food stamps
• 45% report they could not handle a $400 emergency expense without borrowing money

Half the participants report working 40 or more hours per week in app-based work, and nearly 40% have worked more than two years for their "survey app"--they app they were working on when recruited for the survey.

"This is not a 'gig.' This is full-time work for the majority of these workers," said Benner. "More than one-third are supporting children and nearly half are supporting other adults."

Respondents reported median weekly earnings of $900 for ride-hailing workers and $500 for food-delivery workers, but those earnings drop considerably when adjusted for expenses such as gas, vehicle service, and cleaning. And the gap between workers' own estimates of expenses, compared to per-mile expenses allowed by the IRS, is considerable: When using the IRS estimates, fully 21% of workers net zero for their labor, said Benner.

"We estimate that twenty percent of ride-hailing workers are actually losing money to drive, when you account for all of their expenses," said Benner.

Impacts of the coronavirus pandemic

Preliminary findings of the online survey, including the drop in income, were shared with the San Francisco Local Agency Formation Commission (SF LAFCo), which commissioned the baseline survey, on April 21.

"With the shelter-in-place order in effect, ride-hailing workers were earning a fraction of what they'd made in February, but these workers were living on the edge financially already, so anything they can bring in is necessary," said Benner.

The coronavirus crisis prompted 18% of surveyed ride-hailing workers to shift to food delivery, but the biggest impact was on those who were not working at all: 24% had stopped working by mid-April, for fear of contracting the virus or other reasons.

Because app-based companies continue to classify their workers as independent contractors, despite the passage in 2019 of California Assembly Bill 5 designed to make them employees, workers are not typically able to access unemployment benefits. Although the federal CARES Act expanded eligibility to some independent contractors, app-based workers have trouble providing the required documentation of their previous earnings, said Benner.

Policy implications

The two-pronged survey results shed light on the needs of app-based workers, particularly in a city like San Francisco, which has some of the most progressive fair-labor standards in the country, said Benner. "These workers need and deserve greater economic security," he said.

Policymakers must ensure that city and state employment laws are enforced, including minimum wage laws, and that ride-hailing and delivery workers have access to health insurance and unemployment benefits, said Benner. He added that the pandemic has exposed a need for improved safety and health protection of workers and paid sick leave, as well as stronger public health protections.

Meanwhile, owners of app-based companies are backing a ballot initiative that would exempt them from employer regulations. "At a time when these companies should be providing sanitizer, gloves, masks, and information about how to prevent the spread of the virus, they haven't been, because that would undermine their claim that these workers aren't their employees," said Benner. "Food and grocery delivery has been deemed essential work, and these workers are putting themselves at risk, but they are not getting adequate support or protection."

Assessing workers in the gig economy

The surge of app-based workers has raised questions about their well-being, their relationship to the companies they work for, and the future of the labor force. The baseline survey is among the most robust efforts to assess the circumstances of ride-hailing and grocery and meal-delivery workers.

"A survey like this is extremely rare, because it's expensive and labor-intensive," said Benner. "We paid the surveyors and the cost of the ride and meal, regardless of whether the worker was willing to participate in the survey." Benner acknowledged support from the San Francisco Foundation, ReWork the Bay, the Ford Foundation, the Annie E. Casey Foundation, Chavez Family Foundation, and SF LAFCo.

The survey was administered by UC Santa Cruz in partnership with San Francisco Jobs With Justice, Jobs With Justice Education Fund, and the Driver's Seat Cooperative. SF LAFCo commissioned the research. "This is a true example of community-engaged scholarship," said Benner.

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Winter warm spells see an increase in duration and frequency in UK temperature records

Warm winter spells have increased in frequency and duration two- to three times over since 1878, according to scientists led by the University of Warwick

UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK NEWS RELEASE 6-MAY-2020

PROFESSOR SANDRA CHAPMAN OF THE UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS. view more CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF PHYSIC

Analysis of historical temperature data led by University of Warwick shows warm spells in winter occurring more often and for longer periods
Uses over a hundred years of data from the Central England Temperature (CET) record
Has implications for ecology, sustainability and agriculture

Warm winter spells have increased in frequency and duration two- to three times over since 1878, according to scientists led by the University of Warwick.

In a new analysis of historical daily temperature data published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, scientists from the Department of Physics at the University of Warwick, the British Antarctic Survey, and at the London School of Economics and Political Science examined data from the Central England Temperature (CET) record, the longest available instrumental record of temperature in the world. They focused on warm spells during the winter months, defined as sustained periods of time above a fixed temperature threshold.

The conclusions do not rely on identifying and counting winter warm spells directly but instead use observations of daily temperatures to show how the likelihood of different temperatures has changed. By applying a method called crossing theory to these probabilities, the scientists have provided information on the changing relationship between frequency, duration and intensity of these warm spells.

The researchers focused on the maximum daily temperatures in December, January and February in observations from 1878. Week-long warm intervals that return on average every 5 years now consistently exceed 13 degrees C. In the 1850s, a winter warm spell lasting more than 5 days with a daily maximum temperature above 12-13°C would typically take at least 5 years to reoccur. Nowadays they occur more often, typically every 4 years or less.

Climate variability is expected to increase as the global climate warms, and the increase of extended warm spells during winter can have an important impact on agriculture and the sustainability of ecosystems. However, ecosystems are not uniformly sensitive to changes at different temperatures. They are instead vulnerable to changes around critical temperature thresholds and these thresholds may be far from the distribution mean.

Lead author Professor Sandra Chapman of the University of Warwick Department of Physics said: "Our results show that it is possible to focus on warm spells above specific temperature thresholds that are critical for individual species and ecosystem functioning. It thus can be of direct value in supporting our understanding and assessment of climate change impacts.

Professor Stainforth from the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics and Political Science said: "Sustained periods of warm weather can have a significant impact on agriculture and ecosystems even when they don't involve record-breaking extremes. The changing frequency and characteristics of such events may have substantial impacts and this new work demonstrates a novel and flexible method for deducing how they are changing. It provides a valuable new approach for studying the less obvious consequences of climate change."

Professor Eugene Murphy, Science Leader of the Ecosystems Team at British Antarctic Survey said: "Unusually extended periods of warm weather in winter can disrupt biological processes causing changes in the development of populations of plants and animals during the following spring. These changes can affect the biological balance that sustains ecosystems and the diverse biological communities they support, potentially reducing their resilience and capacity to cope with future change."

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* 'Trends in Winter Warm Spells in the Central England Temperature Record' is published in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0267.1

Expansion, environmental impacts of irrigation by 2050 greatly underestimated


PRINCETON UNIVERSITY

NEWS RELEASE 4-MAY-2020

The amount of farmland around the world that will need to be irrigated in order to feed an estimated global population of 9 billion people by 2050 could be up to several billion acres, far higher than scientists currently project, according to new research. The result would be a far greater strain on aquifers, as well as the likely expansion of agriculture into natural ecosystems as farmers search for water.

Existing irrigation models -- which are widely used to define policies on water and food security, environmental sustainability, and climate change -- suggest that the amount of agricultural land requiring irrigation could extend between 240 million and 450 million hectares (590 million to 1.1 billion acres) during the next 30 years.

But those projections likely underestimate population growth and too confidently assume how much land and water will be available for agriculture without having to find new sources, according to researchers from Princeton University, the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, and the University of Bergen in Norway.

The amount of irrigated land could in fact increase to as high as 1.8 billion hectares (4.4 billion acres), the study authors reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, writing, "Policymakers should acknowledge that irrigated areas can grow much more than previously thought in order to avoid underestimating potential environmental costs."

First author Arnald Puy, a postdoctoral researcher in ecology and evolutionary biology at Princeton, said that an expansion of irrigation of this magnitude would have dramatic effects on the environment and other sectors of society. Puy, who is affiliated with the Center for BioComplexity administered by the Princeton Environmental Institute (PEI), worked with co-authors Samuele Lo Piano of the University of Reading and Andrea Saltelli of the University of Bergen.

Irrigation is currently responsible for about 70% of freshwater withdrawals worldwide. About 90% of water taken for residential and industrial uses eventually returns to the aquifer, but only about one-half of the water used for irrigation is reusable. Evaporation, evapotranspiration from plants, and delivery losses such as from leaky pipes forever remove the rest from the water cycle.

"Much larger irrigated areas might mean extending agricultural land toward new ecosystems or non-cultivated areas with the consequent loss of biodiversity, which might also be larger than expected," Puy said. "At the same time, needing more water for irrigation means less water for other sectors and therefore more stress on water resources than expected."

There also could be a much higher amplification of climate change, which current climate models do not account for, Puy said. Previous research has shown that irrigation may influence climate by altering surface temperatures and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, both of which are critical components of climate modeling. These factors have an impact on cloud formation and the amount of solar radiation that is either contained within the atmosphere or reflected back into space.

The climate effects of irrigation also include greenhouse gases released through producing and operating irrigation machinery. The most common modern equipment consists of center-pivot systems consisting of wheeled tubes outfitted with spray guns or dripping faucet heads that rotate around a central water source.

"Much larger irrigated areas means that predictions of agricultural gas emissions might also be much lower than they will be in reality," Puy said "More irrigated areas means investing on irrigation machinery and energy consumption, leading to the consumption of fossil-energy reservoirs and the release of CO2."

Finally, irrigated agriculture also increases soil total nitrogen and carbon due to the addition of fertilizers and manure. Nitrate leaching can taint groundwater and ammonia can be volatilized from fertilizers, limiting the availability of potable water, Puy said.

By drawing attention to the underestimation of irrigated land by current models, Puy, Lo Piano and Saltelli hoped to increase the accuracy of all studies that rely on those estimates to project how the climate and environment could be affected by the very real challenge of feeding everyone on Earth -- and how the state of the environment could shape the outcome of that effort.

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The paper, "Current models underestimate future irrigated areas," was published in the April 28 edition of Geophysical Research Letters. The work was supported by a Marie Skodowska-Curie Global Fellowship (grant no. 792178) from the European Commission

URI professor: Climate change increases risk of fisheries conflict

UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND

 

KINGSTON, R.I. - May 4, 2020 - A team of fisheries scientists and marine policy experts, led by a University of Rhode Island researcher, examined how climate change is affecting the ocean environment and found that the changing conditions will likely result in increased fisheries-related conflicts and create new challenges in the management of global fisheries.

The team's research was published last month in the journal Marine Policy.

Elizabeth Mendenhall, URI assistant professor of marine affairs, said that ocean warming, acidification and sea level rise that are a direct result of climate change are causing populations of fish to shift, making fish increasingly scarce, shifting the boundaries of where nations can legally fish, and increasing the intensity of fishing pressure around the world. The result will be growing conflicts between individual fishermen, fishing communities, fishing nations and fishery managers.

"These conflicts exist at multiple scales," said Mendenhall, who is writing a book about geopolitics and ocean governance. "Some of it is one boat versus another, sometimes it's one country versus another, and it can get very complicated. It isn't just about overfishing any more. There are other drivers and other dynamics involved."

As warming temperatures shift fish populations to different areas, for instance, the bulk of those stocks may cross the borders of a nations' 200-mile exclusive economic zone, making it illegal for those who have fished those stocks for many years to pursue them any longer.

"We're seeing examples of fishermen crossing borders more often now because the stocks they feel they have a right to have shifted across the border," Mendenhall said.

Among the more challenging questions that climate change is raising for fishing nations is what happens when sea level rise submerges an island. Does that change the nation's maritime boundaries?

"It's an ongoing debate about whether you keep your maritime claim even though you have no land base to manage it from," said Mendenhall. "Or does your claim go away? There are a lot of nations that fish over long distances that are ready to exploit those areas if national boundaries no longer exist."

The tiny Japanese atoll of Okinotorishima is one such case. Located in the southernmost archipelago of Japan, its submergence is raising questions about whether Taiwan and China may legally fish in the area claimed by Japan.

"I argue that as sea level rises, Japan's argument gets weaker," said Mendenhall, noting that the countries have not challenged the boundaries based on the island's submergence yet. "The rules on where you can make your maritime claim are based on where the land is.

"The same problem applies to coastlines," she added. "Low-lying countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam could lose a lot of maritime territory as sea level rises. The outer edge of their claim could move closer to their coastline."

The research team makes a series of recommendations based on its findings designed to improve global fishery management. They recommend greater multilateral fishery monitoring, similar to what is in place off East Africa to combat piracy, which can help deter or catch illegal fishers, thereby reducing the chance that individual fishing boats will take matters into their own hands.

"We also suggest that marine protected areas be used, but it's critical that the area protected is one where habitats are still thriving despite climate change," Mendenhall said. "There is concern, however, that when you protect one area, it may displace the fishers to somewhere else and make the problem worse elsewhere. We need to think about the dynamics that protected areas may cause and account for that in the site selection process."

Finally, the researchers recommend strengthening the global fisheries management regime by taking into account climate change and the new sources of fishery conflict. The management boundaries of many fish stocks were drawn decades ago, and some parts of the open ocean are not managed at all because no productive fish stocks were there many years ago, yet there may be fish stocks there in the future. Most importantly, they suggest that the regional fishery management organizations work together to develop coordinated governance systems to better manage fisheries as environmental conditions change and greater conflicts arise.

"These changes to how [regional fishery management organizations] manage fisheries, and how they coordinate and cooperate with one another, can make high seas fisheries management more resilient to shifts in stocks and users, and changes in relative abundance," the researchers conclude.

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Recent Australian wildfires made worse by logging

UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND

IMAGE: BUSHFIRE view more 

CREDIT: THE UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND

Logging of native forests increases the risk and severity of fire and likely had a profound effect on the recent, catastrophic Australian bushfires, according to new research.

In the wake of the country's worst forest fires in recorded history, University of Queensland researchers have been part of an international collaboration, investigating Australia's historical and contemporary land-use.

UQ Professor and Wildlife Conservation Society Director James Watson said logging regimes have made many forests more fire prone for a host of reasons.

"Logging causes a rise in fuel loads, increases potential drying of wet forests and causes a decrease in forest height," Professor Watson said.

"It can leave up to 450 tonnes of combustible fuel per hectare close to the ground - by any measure, that's an incredibly dangerous level of combustible material in seasonally dry landscapes.

"By allowing these practices to increase fire severity and flammability, we undermine the safety of some of our rural communities.

"It affects wildlife too by creating habitat loss, fragmentation and disturbance for many species, with major negative effects on forest wildlife."

Lead author, Australian National University's Professor David Lindenmayer, said there are land management actions we can take to stop these fires from occurring in the future.

"The first is to prevent logging of moist forests, particularly those close to urban areas," Professor Lindenmayer said.

"We must also reduce forest fragmentation by proactively restoring some previously logged forests.

"In the event of wildfires, land managers must avoid practices such as 'salvage' logging - or logging of burnt forests - which severely reduces recovery of a forest."

The Federal Government has launched a Royal Commission to find ways to improve Australia's preparedness, resilience, and response to natural disasters.

Researcher Michelle Ward, from UQ's School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said it was time for government to act.

"We urge policy makers to recognise and account for the critical values of intact, undisturbed native forests, not only for the protection of biodiversity, but for human safety," Ms Ward said.

"Let's act strongly and swiftly for the sake of our communities, the species they house, our climate and Australia's wild heritage."

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The study was undertaken by a team from ANU, Macquarie University, UQ, and the Wildlife Conservation Society.

It has been published in Nature Ecology and Evolution (DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-1195-5).

Surf and turf: Green new deal should be a 'teal new deal'

Incorporating the oceans into climate policy is essential, scientists say in a new paper

SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY

IMAGE: TERRESTRIAL AND OCEAN-BASED CLIMATE SOLUTIONS GO HAND-IN-HAND. view more 

CREDIT: AUTHORS OF THE PAPER

Debates around the Green New Deal have largely centered around climate change concerns on land. But a group of scientists are calling on policymakers to include oceans in the deal.

The Green New Deal is a legislative proposal to tackle climate change and boost the economy, while also supporting equity and social justice.

"There is an opportunity to enact policy that can make meaningful change to help our country both economically and environmentally," said San Diego State University ecologist Rebecca Lewison, one of the co-authors of a new paper on the subject. "It's critical that oceans are part of that policy framework."

"Integrating Oceans into Climate Policy: Any Green New Deal Needs a Splash of Blue" was published in April in Conservation Letters. Lead authors are Lewison, whose work focuses on sustainable resource and land use, and Arielle Levine, an SDSU geographer specializing in human-environment interactions in marine and coastal systems, in collaboration with Oregon State University environmental economist Steven Dundas.

The authors recommend a policy that integrates terrestrial and ocean approaches to create a robust portfolio of climate adaptation and mitigation measures supporting communities, the environment and the economy.

"As we come out of this pandemic, policymakers will be looking for ways to jump start the economy, and we have a unique opportunity to develop policies that promote economic development in an environmentally sustainable manner," Levine said. "Including the oceans in Green New Deal policies will expand opportunities for sustainable economic development in both inland and coastal communities, while addressing the ongoing threat of climate change that we can't ignore."

Their proposals focus on renewable energy, sustainable transportation, food security and habitat restoration, and include:

Harnessing offshore energy

A push to expand offshore renewables will complement the push for renewable energy on land, the scientists said. As ocean winds pick up in the evening, they can supplement energy sources especially during the critical evening peak hours from 4 to 9 p.m.

"Developing offshore renewable energy will help states build a stronger, more adaptable and sustainable energy portfolio," Lewison said.

Reducing emissions from ships, freighters, ports

As with energy, climate-ready sustainable transport can and should include maritime shipping, since more than 80% of global merchandise travels by sea and ships are responsible for about 3% of greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing ship speed is one measure that can reduce emissions. This will mean it takes ships longer to reach destinations, but it's a strategy shipping companies already use voluntarily when fuel prices are high.

"Policies to reduce speed, modifications to ship design and improved fuel efficiency standards for new ships can help significantly reduce emissions," Levine said. "Another way to reduce emissions is to have ships hook up to land-based energy sources while at port, which can also improve local air quality."

The European Union and the International Maritime Organization have set goals to reduce ship emissions by half by 2050. However, "the incentives need to be stronger, with specific targets along the way, to ensure this goal is met," Levine said.

Boosting food security

The oceans feed more people on the planet than any other source.

Sustainable wild-caught fish harvest paired with other approaches like aquaculture -- the process of 'farming' or growing seafood -- are needed to feed a hungry planet of 7.7 billion people. Aside from being a food source, cultivated seaweed can also help absorb carbon emissions.

"Properly executed aquaculture, paired with sustainable fisheries, has the potential to enhance food supply, decrease the carbon footprint of protein sources and sequester carbon at the same time," Dundas said.

To that end, the authors recommend more flexible, transboundary management structures that harness the best science and technology to meet global food demand, from seaweed to tuna.

Supporting sustainable fisheries and aquaculture does much more than support coastal economies. The food and money from seafood industries and markets support inland economies as well. New applications of ocean-based fertilizers can boost production on farms far from the coast, supplying nitrogen and phosphorus, which are necessary nutrients for agriculture but can be harmful when present in high concentrations in coastal waters.

Restoring wetlands, sea kelp, mangroves

When it comes to habitat restoration and climate change, replanting trees and forests are what come to mind most often. But the Teal Deal would also include restoration of wetlands, mangroves, seagrass and kelp, because coastal and ocean habitats need to stay intact to mitigate climate change, the paper notes.

"The perfect example is Hurricane Katrina -- one reason it was so devastating was that wetland and other coastal habitats have been lost to development," Lewison said.

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study found that each $1 million investment in wetland restoration creates an average of 17 jobs, in addition to providing a buffer for storm events.

"A Teal Deal combines land and ocean approaches to address climate change, generating economic benefits to communities everywhere," Lewison said. "The COVID-19 pandemic has shown us that rapid, responsive and coordinated efforts across sectors can stop a crisis. The climate change crisis is ongoing and an integrated policy offers the same opportunity -- to develop a responsive and coordinated multi-sectoral plan for climate resilience."

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Oceans should have a place in climate 'green new deal' policies, scientists suggest

OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY

 

CORVALLIS, Ore. - The world's oceans play a critical role in climate regulation, mitigation and adaptation and should be integrated into comprehensive "green new deal" proposals being promoted by elected officials and agency policymakers, a group of ocean scientists suggests in a new paper.

"The 'green new deal' has been the headline, but very few have been talking about the oceans in those conversations," said Steven Dundas, an environmental and resource economist in Oregon State University's College of Agricultural Sciences and the Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station in Newport, Oregon.

"We think it's important to add a touch of ocean blue to this conversation because the oceans play an important role in efforts to mitigate effects of climate change," he said. "Our proposed 'teal deal' is an integrated approach that is more likely to generate cost-effective and equitable solutions to this global threat."

Dundas is one of three senior authors of the paper, which was published recently by the journal Conservation Letters. The other senior authors are Arielle Levine and Rebecca Lewison of San Diego State University. Additional authors include OSU's Angee Doerr, Ana Spalding and Will White.

The scientists highlight four areas of investment commonly touted in "green new deal" proposals that also apply to the world's oceans: energy, transportation, food security and habitat restoration.

"Adding the oceans to climate policy doesn't mean you're ignoring the terrestrial approaches to climate change mitigation," Dundas said. "It means adopting a portfolio approach that includes both. We hope this paper and our recommendations broaden the policy options needed to meet the grand challenge of climate change."

The concept of a green new deal emerged last year as a way to address climate change. International environmental leaders are now suggesting that coronavirus recovery plans present an opportunity to address climate change.

In the renewable energy sector, the ocean's winds, waves and currents represent a significant source of clean energy that could reduce emissions, meet demand for electricity and spur economic growth through new industry. But many hurdles remain, since offshore energy projects are subject to a range of regulatory policies from the local to the national level, the researchers said.

In the transportation sector, 80% of merchandise around the globe is transported by sea, contributing about 3% of human-made emissions. Growth in world trade is predicted to increase emissions by 150 to 250% by 2050. But measures to address and improve maritime emissions reductions are largely absent from international efforts. Modifying hull designs, relying more on biofuels or wind power and other steps could reduce shipping emissions, the researchers suggested.

In the area of food security, marine fisheries remain one of the most sustainable sources of protein for human consumption, with a lower total carbon footprint than many land-based food sources.

As climate change impacts the size and distribution of marine resources, fishing communities are faced with a few options: following the fish, which could increase costs and emissions; finding an alternative livelihood, which is often not feasible; and switching to a new species, which also could come with increased costs and requires careful fisheries management, the researchers said.

Aquaculture - the term for commercially raising fish or growing seafood products - also holds potential for growth at a relatively low emissions cost, researchers said. For example, seaweed aquaculture could mitigate hundreds of tons of emissions each year.

"Properly executed aquaculture, paired with sustainable fisheries, has the potential to enhance the food supply, decrease the carbon footprint of protein sources and sequester carbon at the same time," said Lewison.

In the area of habitat restoration, investment in projects that restore coastal habitats such as mangroves, tidal wetlands, kelp forests and seagrasses should be a key component of climate policy, the researchers suggest. These habitats currently store up to 25 billion metric tons of carbon, and further restoration could increase that storage capability.

Coastal habitat restoration also can increase flood and erosion protection and mitigate storm impacts, reducing the vulnerability of coastal populations to extreme weather impacts and reducing costs of disaster aid.

"Investing in these four sectors can benefit communities across the United States," said Levine. "The impacts and the benefits go far beyond coastal communities."

The researchers hope to use the paper and their argument to encourage policymakers to consider the oceans in "green new deal" proposals moving forward.

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Aviation industry opposes leaving middle seat empty

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

The global aviation body said Tuesday that the risk of catching COVID-19 on a plane was low and there was no need to leave the middle seat empty once the industry takes off again.


The International Air Transport Association backed the wearing of masks by both passengers and crew but said it did not support physical distancing measures that would leave the middle seat empty in a row of three.

There would be "dramatic cost increases" if such seats were left empty, IATA said in a statement, warning that airlines might otherwise go bust if they struggled to break even.

The aviation industry has taken a big hit in the coronavirus crisis, as lockdown measures and travel restrictions bite.

IATA said that evidence so far—which it admitted was limited—suggested the risk of virus transmission on a plane was already low.

Cabin environment

It said the reasons why this could be include the fact that passengers face forwards, with limited face-to-face interaction, while seats provide a barrier to the person in front.

It said the air flow downwards from the ceiling to the floor further reduces the potential for transmission, while air flow rates are not high and "not conducive to droplet spread" as in regular indoor environments.

Meanwhile, High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters on modern aircraft clean cabin air to hospital operating theatre quality, said IATA.

"The cabin environment naturally makes transmission of viruses difficult," said IATA chief Alexandre de Juniac.

"Our aim is to make the cabin environment even safer with effective measures so that passengers and crew can return to travel with confidence.

"Screening, face coverings and masks are among the many layers of measures that we are recommending. Leaving the middle seat empty, however, is not."

Besides everyone adopting masks on board, proposed temporary measures to reduce the risk of infection include temperature screening of passengers, airport workers and passengers, and limiting movement in the cabin mid-flight.

More frequent and deeper cleaning measures are being considered, along with boarding and disembarking processes that reduce contact.

Immunity passports and testing for the novel coronavirus could also be included, in time.

Struggle to break even

Geneva-based IATA said that physical distancing measures on planes would "fundamentally shift the economics of aviation".

It said the maximum load factor would be cut to 62 percent—well below the industry's break-even figure of 77 percent.

Ticket costs would therefore have to go up by between 43 percent and 54 percent just to cover costs, said IATA.

"Airlines are fighting for their survival. Eliminating the middle seat will raise costs. If that can be offset with higher fares, the era of affordable travel will come to an end," said Juniac.

"On the other hand, if airlines can't recoup the costs in higher fares, airlines will go bust.

"Neither is a good option when the world will need strong connectivity to help kick-start the recovery from COVID-19's economic devastation."


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