Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Broadcasting Earth’s location could provoke alien invasion, Oxford scientist warns

Tom Ough, Apr 18 2022

Aliens might be humans travelling back in time

Alien in UFOs may actually be human beings who have travelled back in time from the future, a university academic has claimed.

Nasa's plan to beam Earth's location into outer space could provoke an alien attack, Oxford scientists have warned.

Researchers at the US space agency have backed a broadcast message, dubbed the "Beacon in the Galaxy", intended to greet extraterrestrial intelligences. It is an updated form of the Arecibo message, broadcast in 1974 for the same purpose.

Improvements in digital technology mean that more information can now be broadcast. The proposed new message includes basic mathematical and physical concepts to establish a universal means of communication, followed by information on the biochemical composition of life on Earth.

It also includes the solar system’s location relative to major clusters of stars, along with digitised depictions of the solar system itself, Earth’s surface, and male and female humans. The message concludes with an invitation for intelligences to respond.

READ MORE:
* Contacting aliens could end all life on earth - let's stop trying
* Aliens have 36 places they like to call home
* Nasa's New Horizons images of Arrokoth show building blocks for planets
* Scientists plan to send greetings out to other worlds

SUPPLIED/NASA
Researchers at the US space agency have backed a broadcast message, dubbed the "Beacon in the Galaxy", intended to greet extraterrestrial intelligences.

But Anders Sandberg, a senior research fellow at Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute (FHI), warned that sharing such information with intelligent life presents a risk that must be considered.

Dr Sandberg told The Telegraph that, although the chance of the message reaching an alien civilisation was low, “it has such a high impact that you actually need to take it rather seriously”.

He said that the “giggle factor” surrounding the search for extraterrestrial intelligence meant that “many people just refuse to take anything related to it seriously. Which is a shame, because this is important stuff”.

Overall, said Dr Sandberg, both the risk and the potential benefit were small. Given the difficulty of traversing vast spans of interstellar space, a message received even by a very advanced civilisation might amount to little beyond, as Dr Sandberg put it, “a postcard saying, ‘Wish you were here,’”.

CAN DO PROJECT
The proposed new message includes basic mathematical and physical concepts to establish a universal means of communication, followed by information on the biochemical composition of life on Earth.

The Arecibo message is one of several broadcasts, including some advertisements, already sent by humans into space. “The poor aliens might already be getting various messages sent for all sorts of reasons,” said Dr Sandberg.

A better approach than individual groups firing off ad-hoc missives, Dr Sandberg suggested, would be humanity coordinating as a species. “We’re not great at coordinating, but I think it is a nice exercise,” he said.

Toby Ord, Dr Sandberg’s colleague at the FHI, made similar arguments in The Precipice, a book published in 2020 in which he analysed existential risks facing humanity.

Dr Ord suggested that it might be wise to have “public discussion” before sending messages to aliens, pointing out that “even passive SETI (listening for their messages) could hold dangers, as the message could be designed to entrap us.

“These dangers are small, but poorly understood and not yet well managed.”
‘The downside could be much bigger’

Overall, wrote Dr Ord, “the main relevant question is the ratio of peaceful to hostile civilisations. We have very little evidence about whether this is high or low, and there is no scientific consensus. Given the downside could be much bigger than the upside, this doesn’t sound to me like a good situation in which to take active steps toward contact.”

The Nasa scientists proposed that the message be broadcast from FAST (China’s Five-hundred-metre Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope) and the SETI Institute’s Allen Telescope Array in northern California. No date has been offered for the broadcast.

Scientists including Stephen Hawking have, in the past, warned that these messages could be risky. In a documentary released in 2010, Professor Hawking pointed out that, on Earth, interactions between civilisations on different levels of technological advancement tend not to work out very well for the lesser-advanced group.

“We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn’t want to meet,” Professor Hawking said, citing the arrival of Europeans in the Americas.

One truckload of plastic in our ocean every minute

The Fiji Times
18 April 2022

The Consumer Council of Fiji stressed there are many practical ways to recycle plastics as statistics showed up to 12.7 million tonnes of plastic enter the ocean every year

Plastic pushed into a small bay floats just beneath the surface.

About 8.3 billion tonnes of plastics have been produced since the 1950s, according to Greenpeace.

However, only 9 percent of these plastics have been recycled, 12 percent have been burned and the remaining 79 percent have ended up in landfills or the environment.

The Consumer Council of Fiji (CCF) highlighted these statistics while stressing there were many practical ways to recycle plastics.

“Up to 12.7 million tonnes of plastic enters the ocean every year — that is equivalent to a truckload of plastic entering the ocean every minute,” CCF said in a statement.

The CCF said on a more positive note, of late more people were beginning to recognise the importance of recycling plastics.

“Through recycling plastic, we reduce the need of producing more as this would require energy, petroleum, and water compared with producing products through recycling.

“If residential and commercial properties made it a priority to recycle their plastics, the need for natural resources and energy will substantially reduce.

“This reduction can help reduce high levels of carbon dioxide in the environment and can also stop energy companies from overusing natural resources.”

CCF said data from “This is Plastics” — a site dedicated to helping influence change in how plastics were used indicated when recycled plastics were used to make new plastic products, “we conserve more than materials”.

“We can reduce energy usage by 66 percent. Plus, for every one tonne of plastic we recycle, we save the equivalent of 1000–2000 gallons of fuel used to produce the same product without recycled plastics.

“The more we recycle, the greater our positive impact can be. When it comes to recycled plastic bottles, a small number actually become plastic bottles again.

“More often, they are used to make car parts, clothing, shows, and pens to name a few.”

Green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) with a plastic bag, Moore Reef, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The bag was removed by the photographer before the turtle had a chance to eat it.

CCF said there were many practical ways to recycle plastics.

“This would include reusing containers for storage like food and spices, transforming used bottles for pot plants or even for decorations.

“Reuse soda bottles by creating a vertical garden. For consumers with a lack of space to plant, making vertically stringed pot plants can be the solution to their problems.

“Consumers can make a great difference in choosing to recycle or up-cycle plastic waste.

“When thinking of how to recycle plastic in homes, consumers can employ creativity and that even includes kids as part of projects to help instil recycling habits.”

CCF said one of the main reasons recycling plastics was important for businesses was the fact it was a simple way to save money and improve company turnover.

“Recycling programs can create cost avoidance and better yet, saves funding for other sustainable initiatives.

“When companies make sustainable choices and implement recycling plastic programs, they have the potential to sell their recyclable waste for alternative uses thus earning back money that was used to finance the programme and, in most cases, generate even more.”

CCF said as recycling technology continued to make advancements – metals, plastics, and glass would become more precious as the cost of materials was expected to continue to increase.

This story was written by Meli Laddpeter, originally published at The Fiji Times on 14 April 2022, reposted via PACNEWS.

CRIMINAL CRYPTO CAPITALI$M

Crypto Fund Founder Warns Industry on North Korean Cyber Attacks

Joanna Ossinger, Bloomberg News

A person typing at a backlit computer keyboard arranged in Danbury, U.K., on Tuesday, Dec. 29, 2020. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg , Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- All prominent cryptocurrency organizations are probably being targeted by North Korean hackers and should strengthen their cybersecurity, according to the founder of a crypto fund.

North Korea is likely to devote more resources to such attacks given the success it’s had so far, said Arthur Cheong, who set up DeFiance Capital in Singapore in 2020 and was himself a recent victim of a cybercrime. He advised crypto firms to take extra care in hiring remote teams, have dedicated computers for crypto transactions and revoke unnecessary token approvals.

“It is critical that this industry is highly aware that we are being targeted by a state-sponsored cybercrime organization that is extremely resourceful and sophisticated,” Cheong said on Twitter.

Read more: U.S. Links North Korean Hacker Group to Record Crypto Heist

North Korea appears to have stepped up its crypto-related cyber attacks in recent months. Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department tied the North Korean hacking group Lazarus to the theft of more than $600 million in cryptocurrency from a software bridge used for the popular Axie Infinity play-to-earn game. Cybercrimes have provided a lifeline for the struggling North Korean economy, which has been hobbled by sanctions to punish it for nuclear and missile tests, and grown smaller since Kim Jong Un took power about a decade ago.

Where’s the Truth? How the CIA Shapes the Minds of Americans

Like Orwell’s Ministry of Truth, propaganda is pouring out of the US that is shaping our perceptions of the war in Ukraine. It is produced by the CIA, it is pronounced by the State Department and it is published by the media. It is coming from everywhere.

The heroes and the villains were cast from the start. The media rewrote history and created the myth of the "unprovoked war." As if Russia’s launching of an illegal war was not sufficient to cast them as the villain in our minds, the media everywhere added the adjective "unprovoked" to create the super-villain needed to produce the necessary support for the war. As if NATO had not broken its promise not to encroach on Russia’s borders. As if Russia’s security concerns had not been ignored. As if Russia has not been surrounded by military bases and missiles. As if Ukraine wasn’t being flooded with weapons. As if Yeltsin and Putin had not protested and drawn their red lines for years.

The heroes and villains were further developed and characterized by stories that came out of Ukraine in the early days of the war. On the first day of the war, a Russian ship aimed its guns at Snake Island and demanded the surrender of the Ukrainian forces. Establishing the roles of super-villain and super-hero in our minds, the Ukrainians bravely defied the Russians, and the Russians remorselessly murdered the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian guards "died heroically," Zelensky said, promising that "All of them will be posthumously awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine."

But the guards couldn’t be posthumously awarded anything because they weren’t dead. They were captured and released a few days later. But the characters had been cast in our minds. Not enough that the Ukrainians really were heroically defending their land against an illegal and villainous Russian assault, to produce the necessary war fervor, a super-villain was needed.

Only days later, a Russian warship was seriously damaged or destroyed by Ukrainian forces only, like the guards of Snake Island, to seemingly show up a few days later.

The western media would also continue to clean up the story and clarify the hero and the villain by erasing the Ukrainian ultranationalists from history and from the story, from their role in the Donbas to their role in 2019 of pressuring Zelensky out of making peace with Russia and signing the Minsk Agreement to their role today.

Then the US began to write the perfect super-villain for the perfect script and the perfect public perception. From the beginning, Russia was deliberately targeting civilians. Not just killing them like a villain, but deliberately killing them like a super-villain

But a senior analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency leaked to Newsweek that, in the first month of the war, "almost all of the long-range strikes have been aimed at military targets." A retired Air Force officer, working with a "large military contractor advising the Pentagon," told Newsweek that "the Russian military has actually been showing restraint in its long-range attacks." The advisor warned that "If we merely convince ourselves that Russia is bombing indiscriminately . . . then we are not seeing the real conflict.” The Newsweek article points out that the US dropped more missiles on the first day in Iraq in 2003 than Russia dropped on Ukraine in the first 24 days. "The vast majority of the airstrikes are over the battlefield, with Russian aircraft providing “close air support” to ground forces. The remainder – less than 20 percent, according to U.S. experts – has been aimed at military airfields, barracks and supporting depots." The DIA analyst concluded that "that’s what the facts show. This suggests to me, at least, that Putin is not intentionally attacking civilians. . . . I know that the news keeps repeating that Putin is targeting civilians, but there is no evidence that Russia is intentionally doing so."

More recently, a senior DIA official told Newsweek, “It’s bad. And I don’t want to say it’s not too bad. But I can’t help but stress that beyond the clamor, we are not seeing the war clearly. Where there has been intense ground fighting and a standoff between Ukrainian and Russian forces, the destruction is almost total. But in terms of actual damage in Kyiv or other cities outside the battle zone, and with regard to the number of civilian casualties overall, the evidence contradicts the dominant narrative.”

According to Washington and the media, Russia was not only targeting civilians from the very beginning of the war, they were also planning possible chemical weapons attacks. President Biden, himself, claimed that Putin was considering using chemical weapons in Ukraine. But a "senior US defense official," in a leak that was reported by Reuters on March 22, said that "There’s no indication that there’s something imminent in that regard right now.”

Two weeks later, "three US officials" told NBC News that "there is no evidence Russia has brought any chemical weapons near Ukraine." It was disinformation intended, they said, "to deter Russia from using banned munitions."

The disinformation campaign is being coordinated by the White House National Security Council. The released declassified information, the officials said, "wasn’t rock solid:" they were publicizing "low-confidence intelligence." It was propaganda being used in the disinformation war against Russia. But that disinformation is being consumed by the US public and shaping its perceptions of the war to create the necessary war fervor.

The promised false flag attack against the Russian speaking people of the Donbas that would justify the Russian invasion and feature video of fake corpses, "never materialized."

The US also tried to "get inside Putin’s head" and, perhaps more importantly, shape public perception in the West of a weak, incompetent and disconnected Putin, by releasing intelligence that discovered that Putin is being misled by his advisors about Russia’s military performance in Ukraine. While some officials said that intelligence was reliable, others said it "wasn’t conclusive – based more on analysis than hard evidence." When questioned, Biden later classified it as "speculation" and "an open question."

Another case of disclosing disinformation in an attempt to warn China, to negatively shape public perception of China and to continue to attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and China was the claim by US officials that Russia had asked China to supply weapons. European and US officials told NBC that that accusation "lacked hard evidence" and that, in fact, "there are no indications China is considering providing weapons to Russia."

While US officials say the disinformation war is meant to deter Russian actions and to get inside Putin’s head, it is simultaneously being consumed by Americans and getting inside their heads, shaping their perceptions of Putin, Russia and the war.

The shaping of the American mind by the media has a long history in the CIA. In the first quarter century of the CIA, according to Carl Bernstein, "more than 400 American journalists . . . carried out assignments for the Central Intelligence Agency, according to documents on file at CIA headquarters." Occasionally, "full‑time CIA employees masquerad[ed] as journalists abroad." Cooperation included articles written by the CIA running almost word for word under columnists’ bylines and "planting misinformation advantageous to American policy."

The disinformation war was not confined to new organizations. The Church Committee found that, by the end of 1967, the CIA had already subsidized the publication of well over one thousand books.

By 1955, the CIA was collaborating with Hollywood to shape the American mind through movies. In Finks: How the CIA Tricked the World’s Best Writers, Joel Whitney says “the goal was ‘to insert in their scripts and in their action the right ideas with the proper subtlety’.” The Joint Chiefs of Staff plotted on how to insert those ideas and actually met with top Hollywood figures at the MGM Studios office of director John Ford. The CIA would go so far as to have operatives infiltrate Hollywood studios. Paramount Studios even had an executive and censor who was a CIA operative who made sure Paramount’s movies cut out any anti-American content or criticism of US foreign policy.

So, where’s the truth. For most Americans, being informed citizens of the world and informed participants in democracy means turning to the newspapers and news outlets. But those newspapers and news outlets are reporting disinformation emanating from the CIA, the State Department and the White House that is shaping the perceptions and the minds of the American people.

Ted Snider has a graduate degree in philosophy and writes on analyzing patterns in US foreign policy and history.

Are ongoing peaceful, creative and spontaneous protests Sri Lanka's “Arab Spring moment”?

Peaceful and spontaneous protests have intensified across Sri Lanka over the past few weeks since March 31, 2022. The general public, including students, teachers, doctors and other professionals as well as the opposition parties organised separate protests across the country, the highlight of which is the protest at Colombo’s Galle Front. Their only demand is that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa should resign immediately over mainly their mishandling of the economy that had led to the current economic crisis in Sri Lanka.

To quell the public uprising, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa declared a state of emergency on April 1, 2022, and major social media platforms (Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, WhatsApp, Viber etc.) were blocked for around 16 hours on April 3.

Leaderless protests

The protests have been observed as spontaneous and leaderless as the usual suspects who organize protests — such as the unions and student groups — were not seen. Some political parties have mentioned that they will not join protests by unknown or anonymous groups.

Ambika Satkunanathan writes at citizen journalism platform Groundviews:

As of April 14, there have been 240 protests of different sizes around the country by different social groups according to Watchdog’s protest tracker. These include protests by fisherfolk in Galle and Ambalantota, carpenters in Moratuwa, private bus drivers in Anuradhapura, health workers of the Kandy, Kegalle and Mullaitivu hospitals, Free Trade Zone workers in Katunayake, and public protests in Akkaraipattu, Balangoda, Bandarawela, Batticaloa, Dambulla, Gampola, Habarana, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kandy, Kelaniya, Kurunegala, Mannar, Matara, Minneriya, Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya, Panadura, Ragama, Thihariya, Vavuniya, Walasmulla and Yakkala.

Social media spaces are occupied by people sharing images, slogans, poems, cartoons etc., and hashtags like #GoHomeGota2022 or #GoHomeGota are trending. The #GoHomeGota2022 campaign even has a website. However, some government-sponsored actors have launched a counter-campaign called #WeAreWithGota to engage in a battle of the hashtags.

Meanwhile, on April 1, Social media activist Anuruddha Bandara was arrested for running a Facebook page called “Gota Go Home.” He was released on bail on April 3.

Some protesters are also using innovative tactics, like this, as entrepreneur Farhan tweeted:

Occupy Galle Face

Galle Face, a 12-acre urban park along the coast in the capital Colombo is the most happening place with thousands of anti-government protesters. On April 9, tens of thousands of protesters started to gather in the afternoon defying the order of closure of the premises. The ‘#OccupyGalleFace’ movement has only one demand: they will stay there “until Rajapaksa resigns.” Citizen journalism platform Groundviews posted some images of the protests. The protest site was renamed “Gota-Go-Gama.”

These protests, mainly led by the youth, including students, teachers, doctors and other professionals, are peaceful and innovative. The protesters are wary of politicians, both from the ruling party and the opposition. Dozens of tents have been erected to shelter them from the rain and sun, and more are on stand-by. Professionals such as artists, cricketers and musicians are also joining the protests. Sympathetic supporters are regularly donating water, food and medicines, and mobile toilets were set up.

Some media are comparing these grassroots protests to the Arab Spring movements.

Investigative journalist Zulfick Farzan shared this image:

A police officer who joined the protests was briefly arrested and then granted bail on April 15.

Journalist Charindra Chandrasena said:

As of April 16, the occupy protest has reached its 8th day. According to Professor Hiroshan Hettiarachchi, this Sri Lankan uprising is following its own unique, local model.

Sapumal Bandara from Sri Lanka tweeted:

The protests saw national unity between the Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus and Christians and between Sinhala and Tamils as they came together for the protest:

According to web administrator Daniel Alexander:

Entrepreneur Raees ul Haq tweeted:

There is even music:

The #OccupyGalleFace protests are also gaining support from elsewhere in the country:

Ambika Satkunanathan at Groundviews debunks the criticism of the Occupy Galle Face movement:

Criticism of Occupy Galle Face has also centred on its methods. That protestors are not taking it seriously, that there is song and music. That “it is like a party”. These comments demonstrate a failure to understand the multi-faceted nature of protests and the fact that protests will always have those who come along for their own purposes. Galle Face turning into “a carnival” has perhaps broken the taboo on protesting, especially the middle-class aversion to and disdain for protesting on the streets.

Seeking a bail-out

The Sri Lankan opposition has rejected Rajapaksa's offer for a unity government and threatened to bring a no-confidence motion against the Rajapaksa government if it fails to solve the public concerns. A new finance minister has been appointed and the rest of the cabinet are expected to be appointed and to be sworn in on April 18, 2022, Monday.

On April 17, 2022, a Sri Lankan delegation headed by the new finance minister Ali Sabry travelled to the USA to discuss with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the bail-out package of USD 4 billion Sri Lanka sought earlier. Meanwhile, several community-driven initiatives have popped up to help Sri Lankans in need.

Written byRezwan

Sri Lankan protesters demand justice for 2019 Easter bombings

Protesters criticise a lack of progress in finding those responsible for the deaths of more than 260 people in bombings three years ago.

A survivor of a 2019 Easter Sunday bomb attack wipes her tears as her father delivers a speech during a protest on the third anniversary of the event, near the Presidential Secretariat in Colombo [Navesh Chitrakar/Reuters]

Published On 18 Apr 2022

Sri Lankans protesting for days near the president’s office have criticised a lack of progress in finding those responsible for the deaths of more than 260 people in Easter Sunday bombings three years ago, piling pressure on the government already embroiled in a deep economic crisis.

The protesters demanded the government uncover what they called the real conspirators behind the attacks on three churches – two Catholic and one Protestant – that included simultaneous suicide bombings during Easter celebrations on April 21, 2019. Three tourist hotels were also targeted, killing 42 foreigners from 14 countries.

On Sunday, hundreds of people lit candles and displayed banners and placards during a silent protest in the capital, Colombo, calling for justice for the victims of the attacks.

The demonstrations were held at Colombo’s main esplanade, where thousands of people have been protesting for eight days to demand the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa over the worst debt crisis that has caused critical shortages of fuel, food and medicines in the Indian Ocean island nation.

Sri Lankans hold placards demanding justice for the victims of the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks outside the president’s office in Colombo [AP Photo]

Protesters including relatives of the victims accused the government of failing to deliver justice for the bombings. They displayed a huge banner that read: “It’s been 3 years, we cry for justice” and placards that read: “Who was behind this attack?”

“My entire family is gone. Today, I live a very lonely life. I have no words to explain my agony,” said Shiran Anton, whose wife and only daughter died in the attacks.

“I want to find out who the real culprits were behind this attack and why they did it,” he said, adding he was not satisfied with the investigation.

Officials have charged dozens of people who allegedly received weapons training and participated in indoctrination classes from two local Muslim groups accused of carrying out the attacks.

The groups had allegedly pledged allegiance to the ISIL (ISIS) group. Friction between the country’s former president and former prime minister – who belonged to different political parties – was blamed for the failure to act on the intelligence warnings.

Catholic nuns protest outside Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court in Colombo on November 8, 2021, denouncing alleged attempts by police to arrest a senior priest who pressed for justice for those responsible for the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings

[File: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP]

The Catholic Church in Sri Lanka has also been critical of the investigation into the bombings. Church leaders have repeatedly blamed Rajapaksa’s government for not taking action against former President Maithripala Sirisena and other top officials for failing to prevent the bombings.

Archbishop of Colombo Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith has said the true conspirators in the attacks could still be at large and questioned the government over allegations that some members of state intelligence knew and had met with at least one attacker.

The attacks shattered the country’s tourism industry – a key source of hard currency – just a year before the pandemic dealt a heavy blow to the economy. Protesters also blame the government’s mismanagement of the country’s debt payments, including taking loans for dubious investments.

The country is on the brink of bankruptcy, saddled with $25bn in foreign debt over the next five years – nearly $7bn of which is due this year alone – and dwindling foreign reserves.

Talks with the International Monetary Fund are expected this week, and the government had turned to China and India for emergency loans to buy food and fuel.

Much of the anger has been directed at Rajapaksa and his elder brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, who head an influential clan that has been in power for most of the past two decades.

SOURCE: NEWS AGENCIES

KEEP READING
Sri Lanka cardinal seeks UN probe into 2019 Easter bombings

Sri Lanka begins trials connected to 2019 Easter Sunday bombings

Sri Lanka indicts ISIL ‘mastermind’ over Easter Sunday bombings

Sri Lanka arrests Muslim leader over 2019 Easter Sunday attacks

The Ponzi Scheme That Broke Lebanon

U.S. Ties to the Country’s Elites Will Test Biden’s Anticorruption Agenda

By Sam Heller

April 18, 2022

Protesting in front of Parliament in Beirut, Lebanon, February 2020

Mohamed Azakir / Reuters

For the last two and a half years, Lebanon’s economy has been in free fall. The country’s currency, the lira, has lost more than 90 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar; GDP has shrunk by nearly 60 percent; and close to 80 percent of Lebanese have slipped below the poverty line, along with practically all of the 1.5 million Syrian refugees living in Lebanon. Hundreds of thousands of people have fled the country.

The crisis, which is among the worst to hit any country in modern history, was precipitated by the collapse of what UN Secretary General António Guterres described as “something similar to a Ponzi scheme”: for years, the country’s central bank used ordinary bank depositors’ money to finance the corrupt and wasteful spending of successive Lebanese governments. Participants in the scheme reaped huge returns—until 2019, when it all came tumbling down. The pyramid scheme may not have been technically illegal, but it nonetheless amounted to corruption on a grand scale: Lebanese elites made a killing, spirited their ill-gotten gains abroad, and left millions of their impoverished countrymen holding the bag.

But the crisis wasn’t just caused by greed and corruption; it has been prolonged by the unwillingness of those who are responsible to change their ways or to assume their fair share of the country’s massive financial losses. International donors are willing to discuss a bailout that could right the economy, but Lebanese leaders have resisted even the most basic reforms that lenders have demanded as a precondition for a rescue package. The country’s political and financial elites have benefited handsomely from the current system, and they stand to lose from any ordered resolution of Lebanon’s national bankruptcy. According to the World Bank, Lebanon is now mired in a “deliberate depression,” one that has been “orchestrated by the country’s elite that has long captured the state and lived off its economic rents.”

Lebanon’s predicament poses a unique challenge for the Biden administration, which hopes to prevent the total collapse of the country and has declared fighting corruption a national security priority. In line with President Joe Biden’s global anticorruption agenda, U.S. officials have pushed Lebanese leaders to rein in corruption and make the reforms that would enable an international bailout. But few in Lebanon take the United States at its word, since Washington has long tolerated corruption among its partners in Lebanon and weaponized anticorruption measures against its enemies.

Even now, American messaging on corruption and reform suffers from a conspicuous—and deadly—omission: U.S. officials have remained largely silent on the grandly corrupt scheme that precipitated Lebanon’s national bankruptcy, and in which key U.S. partners are implicated. When it comes to corruption in Lebanon, the United States has a credibility problem—one that the Biden administration will need to remedy if it wants to be a useful partner in reform. The administration’s approach to Lebanon, where fighting corruption and preventing state collapse necessarily go hand in hand, is a vital test of its commitment to combating corruption globally.

CORRUPTION OF A STATE

Lebanon is governed by an unwieldy sectarian system that divides political representation among 18 officially recognized sects—each with its own political boss and patrimonial fiefdom. By divvying the top government positions among Sunnis, Shiites, and Christians, however, this system has facilitated the capture of state institutions by elites, enabling them to exploit public resources for private gain and to solidify their hold on their sectarian constituencies.

Corruption in Lebanon, however, is not just a matter of political patronage and rotten public contracting. For decades, Lebanon’s largely unproductive economy relied on regular infusions of foreign capital to function. When those inflows slowed because of deepening political disfunction and conflict—including in neighboring Syria—the country’s central bank resorted in 2016 to what it called “financial engineering” to fund government deficits and maintain an artificially high value for the Lebanese lira. In short, the central bank paid Lebanese commercial banks exorbitant interest rates for dollar deposits, and those banks in turn offered their own generous returns to lure more depositors. Everyone involved made a lot of money, even as the country’s financial sector stealthily took on huge systemic risk.

Financial engineering wasn’t just a high-risk move to prop up Lebanon’s government and currency. It was also the latest version of a decades-old compact between government and financial elites in which public resources feed the country’s oversized banking sector. Lebanon’s political class is deeply enmeshed with its financial elites. In the most prominent example, Saad Hariri, son of former prime minister and business tycoon Rafik Hariri who served as prime minister himself from 2009 to 2011 and from 2016 to 2020, is the main shareholder in one of the country’s largest banks. It may not have been illegal for Lebanese officials to benefit from the central bank’s ruinous policies, but it was certainly corrupt.

Lebanese elites made a killing and left millions of their impoverished countrymen holding the bag.

And it all fell apart in October 2019, when already struggling Lebanese banks reacted to massive antigovernment protests by shutting their doors and denying depositors access to their accounts. This apparent attempt to preempt a bank run sparked a fatal crisis of confidence in the country’s banking sector, rendering Lebanon’s private banks, central bank, and state all suddenly insolvent. Total losses to the country’s financial sector are estimated in the tens of billions of U.S. dollars. The arrival of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020 compounded the country’s economic misery, as did a catastrophic explosion at the port of Beirut in August of that year, which killed more than 200 people and caused billions of dollars of damage.

Foreign donors have conditioned the massive bailout needed to stabilize Lebanon’s economy on an agreement between Lebanon and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that would require fiscal discipline and reform. Yet Lebanon’s leaders—and their allies in the banking sector—have not cooperated. Instead, they have resisted any resolution of the country’s national bankruptcy that would disadvantage bank shareholders or top depositors. They also have yet to carry out basic measures—including approving a plan to restructure Lebanon’s external debt and unifying the country’s multiple exchange rates—that the IMF has required as preconditions for a bailout. In the meantime, private banks have allowed elites to move their money out of the country while restricting ordinary depositors’ access to their accounts, meaning that the heaviest burden from Lebanon’s economic losses has fallen on those least able to bear it.

TAKE A STAND

Ever since Biden unveiled a new strategy for fighting corruption last year, U.S. officials have placed greater emphasis on tackling the problem in Lebanon. U.S. Treasury Department officials have urged Lebanese leaders and bankers to step up due diligence efforts and improve transparency and accountability. In October 2021, the United States imposed sanctions on two politically connected Lebanese businessmen and one member of Parliament for illicit enrichment and undermining the rule of law. And in December, Dorothy Shea, the U.S. ambassador in Beirut, presented a Lebanese investigative journalist with an anticorruption award, using the occasion to emphasize Washington’s newfound commitment to battling corruption.

None of this is especially convincing, however, given that the United States is seen as close to some of the Lebanese officials most responsible for the current crisis. Central bank governor Riad Salameh, in particular, has long worked with the United States to counter Hezbollah financing. In addition to bearing responsibility for the central bank’s policy of financial engineering and the country’s economic collapse, Salameh faces serious allegations of self-dealing and illicit enrichment. Yet until recently, many in Lebanon regarded him as untouchable because of his relationship with Washington, and not without reason. In May 2020, Shea gave a television interview in which she defended Salameh, saying that the United States “has worked very closely with him over the years” and that “he enjoys great confidence in the international financial community.” That interview came at a pivotal moment in Lebanese politics, just as Lebanese news outlets reported that Salameh, along with the country’s banking lobby and many of its allies in Parliament, was opposing a Lebanese government financial recovery plan that was supposed to serve as the basis for negotiations with the IMF and that would have disadvantaged financial sector interests. Salameh and his allies won out, talks with the IMF collapsed, and Lebanon’s economic crisis has dragged on for two more years.

But the problem is not just that the United States has looked away from corruption in the past, it’s that it has also allowed anticorruption efforts to be politicized in a way that undermined their credibility. In 2020, for instance, the Trump administration used the Global Magnitsky Act to sanction the leading Maronite Christian politician Gebran Bassil, ostensibly for corruption but really because he is an ally of Hezbollah. David Schenker, who served as assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs from 2019 to 2021, admitted as much after leaving office. “We leveled a series of sanctions against Hezbollah and its Lebanese allies,” he said, “including, importantly, non-Shia, culminating in the Global Magnitsky designation of Gebran Bassil for corruption.” The Biden administration’s October 2021 anticorruption sanctions could likewise be plausibly construed as targeting Hezbollah allies, given the individuals targeted.

The U.S. needs to prioritize Lebanon’s economy over preserving relationships with the leaders who tanked it.

If the Biden administration wants Lebanon’s leaders to take its concerns about corruption seriously, it needs to shed the United States’ reputation for tolerating corruption among friendly elites and dispel the impression that anticorruption measures such as sanctions are really tools to curtail Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon.

To that end, Washington will have to stress the necessity of reform to its Lebanese interlocutors, coordinating closely with allies such as France. U.S. officials should push Lebanon’s leaders to meet the IMF’s preconditions for assistance, including by taking steps to restructure the financial sector, consolidate its failing banks, and audit the central bank—measures that Lebanese elites have sought to obstruct. In addition, the United States should insist that any economic recovery plan must protect small depositors and provide social support for the country’s most vulnerable.

But really fighting corruption in Lebanon will require more than just condemning corruption in rhetorical terms and advocating for specific reforms. It will require Washington to break publicly with financial elites such as Salameh who bear responsibility for the country’s collapse. This is vital because the domestic political fight over who should be blamed for the crisis and who should bear its costs is still ongoing. Lebanon’s central bank and commercial banks deny responsibility for the country’s current predicament. They have argued that they should be made whole at the Lebanese public’s expense. In this internal debate, elites seeking to stymie reform draw strength from their ties with the United States—which is why they have consistently sought to portray interactions with U.S. officials as affirmation from Washington. The United States should not be seen as siding with the same elites who are resisting necessary reforms.

In addition to calling out Lebanese officials for their role in the current crisis, the Biden administration can signal its seriousness about fighting corruption by imposing new sanctions on corrupt Lebanese figures across the sectarian and political spectrum. It should follow up its October 2021 anticorruption sanctions by targeting additional politicians, bankers, and media figures implicated in public corruption, including individuals associated with traditionally U.S.-friendly parties.

Taking a harder line on corruption will inevitably damage some longstanding U.S. relationships with Lebanese politicians and financial elites. But these figures have little choice but to cooperate with Washington on U.S. priorities such as countering terrorism financing and excluding Hezbollah from international banking networks, given that the United States can effectively shut noncompliant banks out of the global financial system. And in any case, the United States needs to prioritize rescuing Lebanon’s economy over preserving relationships with the leaders who tanked it. That requires promoting painful reforms at the expense of Lebanese elites, including those seen as friendly toward the United States.

Lebanon is a major test of the Biden administration’s anticorruption agenda. What the United States does there won’t just affect the odds of a rescue package that could prevent the Lebanese state from failing; it will also demonstrate to corrupt regimes around the world that Washington is serious about fighting corruption. To do that, however, the Biden administration will have to show Lebanese leaders that it will no longer tolerate the kind of grand corruption that cratered Lebanon’s economy. Failing that, Biden’s anticorruption rhetoric will be just words.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

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