China global Merged Surface Temperature dataset (CMST) reveals 2023 on Track to Be Hottest Year Ever

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

 

IMAGE: OBSERVATORY WITH MACAO METEOROLOGICAL AND GEOPHYSICS BUREAU view more 

CREDIT: QINGXIANG LI

The climate crisis is reaching unprecedented levels of urgency as global temperatures soar to record-breaking heights, with July 2023 marking another alarming milestone. United Nations Secretary-General  António Guterres  declared it a "disaster for the whole planet," emphasizing that the era of "global warming" has given way to an era of "global boiling." This alarming assessment is supported by recent findings from Professor Qingxiang Li 's team at the School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, based on the China global Merged Surface Temperature dataset 2.0 (CMST 2.0). Prof. Li is also a distinguished research fellow at the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Unprecedented Monthly Highs since May

Professor Qingxiang Li 's team analyzed the CMST 2.0 dataset and discovered that 2023 has already experienced the third hottest first half-year since records began, narrowly trailing behind the warmest year in 2016 and the second warmest in 2020. The global mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) surged to an all-time high in April, while global mean land surface air temperatures followed suit by reaching their second-highest monthly level in June. This combination resulted in May being crowned the hottest month ever recorded for global mean surface temperatures.

The research further reveals that global surface temperatures continue to rise into the second half of 2023, driven by factors including El Niño and widespread wildfires. Both global mean SSTs and global mean land surface air temperatures reached unprecedented highs for July, shattering previous records. Given the current trajectory and short-term forecast results of El Niño, along with the extremely positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which strongly influences global surface temperatures, 2023 is on track to become the hottest year on record. Moreover, 2024 may witness even higher global surface temperatures.

The research is published as a News&Views article on September 19 in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

The CMST 2.0 Dataset - A Global Benchmark

The CMST 2.0 dataset, developed by Professor Li Qingxiang's team, stands as the most comprehensive global surface temperature benchmark dataset to date. It incorporates data from China, filling a critical gap in global temperature monitoring. The dataset integrates over a century's worth of global land surface air temperature data and incorporates state-of-the-art research from across the globe, resulting in an invaluable resource for climate scientists and policymakers. In 2022, the dataset was expanded to include Arctic surface temperature data, enhancing its global coverage.

Accessible to both the scientific community and the general public, the CMST 2.0 dataset is freely available on the Global Climate Change Observation and Modeling Data Platform at http://www.gwpu.net/en/.

Understanding the Complex Factors behind Global Warming

While human activities, including greenhouse gas emissions, are the primary drivers of long-term global warming, short-term variations are influenced by internal climate system changes such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). As global warming accelerates, the likelihood of extreme weather events and disasters increases, necessitating urgent action.

Global warming also has profound regional impacts, manifesting in extreme temperature fluctuations. For instance, in East Asia, circulation anomalies like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have led to frequent extreme cold events in winter, offsetting the overall rise in average temperatures. However, the rise in summer maximum temperatures and the decline in winter minimum temperatures result in larger fluctuations in extreme temperatures.

Furthermore, the pace of human discomfort due to rapid temperature increases, particularly in low-latitude regions, is a growing concern that demands our attention. The CMST 2.0 dataset and Professor Qingxiang Li's team's research underscore the urgency of addressing the climate crisis. 

Global mean surface temperature anomalies for the whole year/first half of the year based on the CMST 2.0 (The blue line represents the GMST in the first half of the year, the gray bar represents the annual GMST (the dark gray column refers to the average predicted temperature in 2023 in the past 5 years), the black line represents the GMST, and the red line represents the regional mean ST in China)

CREDIT

Qingxiang Li

JOURNAL

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

DOI

10.1007/s00376-023-3200-9 

ARTICLE TITLE

Record-breaking High-temperature Outlook for 2023: An Assessment Based on the China Global Merged Temperature (CMST) Dataset

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Sep-2023

Turning the tide: Ghana's innovative approach to tackle marine plastic pollution with citizen science

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

Working with IIASA researchers, Ghana has adopted a citizen science approach to addressing the problem of plastic pollution in marine environments, becoming the first country to integrate this type of data on marine plastic litter into its official monitoring and reporting processes. A new study presents this innovative approach on Ghana’s citizen science journey and offers a pathway that can potentially be adopted in other countries.

Marine plastic litter poses a significant threat to marine ecosystems, wildlife, human health, and economies dependent on industries like tourism and fishing. Recognizing the urgency of the issue, the United Nations Environment Assembly adopted a resolution to combat plastic pollution in 2022. This issue is also recognized in the framework of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Understanding the full extent of the marine plastics problem, however, remains challenging due to the vastness of the Earth’s oceans and the complex circulation of plastic litter. Traditional monitoring methods are costly and often outdated, leaving significant data gaps.

The study, which has been published in Sustainability Science, demonstrates how existing citizen science data and networks can be leveraged to address the data gap on marine litter at national level and feed into global SDG monitoring and reporting processes, showing how Ghana has become a success story. The authors also highlight how these data and networks can help to inform relevant policies and action at a national level with global impact.

"Citizen science is more than just plugging data gaps; it is a powerful bridge between the public, the world of science, and policy. It not only raises awareness and inspires action to tackle challenges, but also fosters a democratic approach to policymaking, where the voice of the people becomes integral to shaping our collective future," explains Dilek Fraisl, lead author and a researcher in the Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability Research Group of the IIASA Advancing Systems Analysis Program

Ghana generates approximately 1.1 million tons of plastic waste annually, with only 5% being collected and recycled. To address this, the Ghanaian government has committed to sustainable plastic waste management and became the first country to join the Global Plastic Action Partnership in 2019. In addition, a growing citizen science community in Ghana provided an opportunity for citizen science to go beyond being a valuable data source on marine litter, to include the removal of litter from the environment and engaging with volunteers to promote education and raise awareness on the issue.

Through its International Coastal Cleanup initiative, the Ocean Conservancy (OC) has established a standardized approach to gather and categorize plastic pollution and marine litter data during cleanup campaigns. Various community groups and organizations in Ghana, including local civil society organizations, have adopted this methodology for their own cleanup campaigns. Data from these exercises are ultimately consolidated into the OC’s Trash Information Data for Education and Solutions (TIDES) database, which is publicly accessible and houses the world's largest collection of ocean trash data. Users can examine this data at both global and local levels, down to specific beach locations. As the International Coastal Cleanup platform operates in 155 countries worldwide, there is significant potential to employ this data for global-level monitoring, specifically for achieving SDG14 related to life below water. The Earth Challenge Marine Litter Data Integration Platform, an interoperable plastic pollution dataset, integrates data from various citizen science projects including the OC’s TIDES, offering potential for monitoring plastic pollution globally.

The case study has had a significant impact on addressing marine litter issues in Ghana and beyond. Specifically, it will contribute to the development of the country's Integrated Coastal and Marine Management Policy. Government partners involved in the study, Ghana Statistical Service, and the Environmental Protection Agency Ghana, as the country leads of the project, have become more familiar with citizen science methodologies and data, and gained a better understanding of citizen science activities related to marine litter in the country. Civil society organizations engaged in beach cleanups and data collection have also realized the potential and impact of their data for official statistics and policymaking. As a result, the country has become the first to officially report on plastic debris density under SDG 14.1.1b, using citizen science data.

“Ghana's citizen science experience has provided valuable insights into how data generated by citizen scientists can inform policies at the national level while contributing to global progress on the SDGs. It also offers a replicable pathway for other countries interested in incorporating citizen science data into their SDG monitoring efforts, not only for marine plastic litter but potentially for other indicators as well,” notes coauthor Linda See, who is associated with the same research program at IIASA.

“With less than seven years remaining to achieve the SDGs, we have to acknowledge the valuable opportunities presented by citizen science initiatives. They play a pivotal role in addressing data deficiencies and contribute to bolstering inclusive data ecosystems, informed decision making, and concerted action. We need to foster awareness and comprehension of citizen science data and methodologies to nurture the growth of more reliable partnerships around citizen science data and achieve evidence-based, all-encompassing policies and collaborative efforts on a global scale for the SDGs and sustainable development more broadly,” Fraisl concludes.

Reference
Fraisl, D., See, L., Bowers, R., Seidu, O., Boakye Fredua, K., Bowser, A., Meloche, M., Weller, S., Amaglo-Kobla, T., Ghafari, D., Laso Bayas, J.C., Campbell, J., Cameron, G., Fritz, S., McCallum, I. (2023). The contributions of citizen science to SDG monitoring and reporting on marine plastics. Sustainability Science. DOI: 10.1007/s11625-023-01402-4

 

About IIASA:
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. www.iiasa.ac.at

 

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JOURNAL

Sustainability Science

DOI

10.1007/s11625-023-01402-4 

ARTICLE TITLE

The contributions of citizen science to SDG monitoring and reporting on marine plastics

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Sep-2023

 

IPK’s PhenoSphere brings functional plant science much closer to real field environments

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE OF PLANT GENETICS AND CROP PLANT RESEARCH

 

IMAGE: FIELD-LIKE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CAN BE SIMULATED REPRODUCIBLY IN THE IPK PHENOSPHERE view more 

CREDIT: IPK LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE/ J. BERGSTEIN

For fundamental and for application-oriented research there is a need to expose crop plants to relevant field-like conditions in a reproducible manner. “We present IPK’s PhenoSphere to the plant science community as a novel tool to study the plant’s response to variation in weather variables and other environmental conditions”, says Prof. Dr. Thomas Altmann, head of IPK’s department “Molecular Genetics”. The PhenoSphere enables detailed analyses of performance-related trait expression and causal biological mechanisms in plant populations exposed to weather conditions of current and anticipated future climate scenarios - such as greater drought, higher temperatures and increased CO2 concentration.

Its technical capabilities overcome several limitations of typical growth chambers and glasshouses. Here, deliberate temperature profiles can be realized with an hourly resolution, light quality and quantity can be manipulated on a minute resolution scale. Clouds can also be simulated via the sophisticated lighting system as well as wind speed and direction can be changed on the sub-hour scale, atmospheric CO2 levels can be increased. Water and fertilization can be automatically applied daily, and the large-volume containers allow the use of different soil types and compositions and the modulation of the soil temperature. “This will support systems biology analyzes carried out to elucidate molecular mechanisms underlying the expression of agronomically relevant traits. It furthermore enables testing hypotheses derived from different approaches such as network analysis and modelling”, says Prof. Dr. Thomas Altmann.

The first results are very promising. Simulating a single maize growing season within the PhenoSphere and using large-volume soil containers resulted in plant growth and development progression that matched the rates that the same population exhibited upon cultivation in the corresponding field season. “Field grown plants and plants inside the experiment required the same amount of time to reach peak growth speed, maturity of leaves, and tasselling” says Dr. Marc Heuermann, first author of the study. “The correlation between the weather simulation and the outdoor environment concerning temperature, thermal time, and VPD profiles over the cultivation periods was highest when using real days as templates in the single season simulation“, explains Dr. Marc Heuermann. And in any case the single season simulation proved superior to the glasshouse and the averaged season in the PhenoSphere.

The PhenoSphere thus fills the gap between hitherto established controlled-environment phenotyping systems and field phenotyping trials. “The ability of eliciting field-like growth and development in the dynamic but controlled environment of the PhenoSphere is a very substantial and important advance and goes far beyond previous improvements in standard climatized glasshouses cultivation procedures”, says Prof. Dr. Thomas Altmann.

The optimized and validated field-like environment simulation programs can now be used to perform also (seed) yield trials, which require a specific experimental setup and designs fundamentally different from the benchmarking experiments of this study.

 

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JOURNAL

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-023-41332-4 

ARTICLE TITLE

Natural plant growth and development achieved in the IPK PhenoSphere by dynamic environment simulation

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

18-Sep-2023

 

At which age we are at our happiest

Psychology

Peer-Reviewed Publication

RUHR-UNIVERSITY BOCHUM

More than 460,000 participants

In their study, the researchers examined trends in subjective well-being over the lifespan based on 443 samples from longitudinal studies with a total of 460,902 participants. “We focused on changes in three central components of subjective well-being,” explains Professor Susanne Bücker, who initially worked on the study in Bochum and has since moved to Cologne: “Life satisfaction, positive emotional states and negative emotional states.”

The findings show that the life satisfaction decreased between the ages of 9 and 16, then increased slightly until the age of 70, and then decreased once again until the age of 96. Positive emotional states showed a general decline from age 9 to age 94, while negative emotional states fluctuated slightly between ages 9 and 22, then declined until age 60 and then increased once again. The authors identified greater median changes in positive and negative emotional states than in life satisfaction.

Positive trend over a wide period of life

“Overall, the study indicated a positive trend over a wide period of life, if we look at life satisfaction and negative emotional states,” as Susanne Bücker sums up the results. The researchers attribute the slight decline in life satisfaction between the ages of 9 and 16 to, for example, changes to the body and to the social life that take place during puberty. Satisfaction rises again from young adulthood onwards. Positive feelings tend to decrease from childhood to late adulthood. In very late adulthood, all components of subjective well-being tended to worsen rather than improve. “This could be related to the fact that in very old people, physical performance decreases, health often deteriorates, and social contacts diminish; not least because their peers pass away,” speculates the researcher.

The study highlights the need to consider and promote subjective well-being with its various components across the lifespan, as the authors of the study conclude. Their findings could provide significant guidance for the development of intervention programmes, especially those aimed at maintaining or improving subjective well-being late in life.

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JOURNAL

Psychological Bulletin

DOI

10.1037/bul0000401 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Meta-analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

The development of subjective well-being across the lifespan: A meta-analytic review of longitudinal studies

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

18-Sep-2023

 

The “Choreography” between hormones and the brain key to understanding how women adapt to motherhood

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITAT AUTONOMA DE BARCELONA

 

IMAGE: EXPERTS TEAM OF THE COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE RESEARCH UNIT (URCN) OF THE UAB'S DEPARTMENT OF PSYCHIATRY AND LEGAL MEDICINE. view more 

CREDIT: UNIVERSITAT AUTÒNOMA DE BARCELONA (UAB)

Researchers from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), the Gregorio Marañón Health Research Institute and the Hospital del Mar Research Institute have published the first paper that reviews the scientific literature existing until now on the neurobiological adaptation occurring during pregnancy and postpartum in humans and other animals.

The article, with Camila Servin-Barthet and Magdalena Martínez as first authors and Òscar Vilarroya and Susana Carmona as senior authors, was published in Nature Reviews Neuroscience and will be featured on the cover of the October issue of the journal.

The researchers reviewed a total of 174 articles, in which they analysed the connections among three fundamental areas: changes in brain structure, hormonal evolution, and maternal behaviour, to open new lines of research and advance in women-oriented research.

According to the scientists, all information points to the fluctuation of hormones, mainly related to estrogens, as being what triggers plasticity processes in the brain during a human pregnancy and postpartum period. However, more research is needed to explain what types of plasticity processes (which imply changes in brain cell function, structure, and connectivity) are involved in the transition to motherhood in humans, and how they affect maternal behaviour.Motherhood and morphological changes

Motherhood is a physiologically and psychologically life-changing event, which includes a series of adaptations in how the mother behaves, aimed at ensuring the well-being of her offspring.

Researchers from the UAB and the Hospital del Mar Research Institute were the first to demonstrate in 2017 that a pregnancy implied changes in the brain morphology of first-time mothers, reducing the volume of grey matter in regions involved in social relation, and that these changes were maintained for at least two years after giving birth. Since then, researchers have observed that the brain’s grey matter changes in volume in the different stages of maternity and postpartum and that it is always accompanied by extreme hormone fluctuations.

In the article, researchers describe for the first time three fundamental factors in understanding the adaptation to motherhood in humans. First are estrogens (oestradiol), as the main hormone candidates in inducing changes in the brain. Second is the brain circuit related to social cognition (involving the medial frontal cortex and precuneus, as well as other areas), as the specific region in which these changes take place. And third, there are the psychological changes, i.e., the cognitive and emotional processes necessary to develop a mother-child relationship that adapts to the different phases of pregnancy and postpartum. This third factor is what most differentiates humans from other animals and little is known about it.

Roadmap for future research

Based on the evidence published, the researchers point out which neuroplasticity processes most likely contribute to the changes identified, and how these can be related to pregnancy and maternal behaviour hormones. They also prepared a roadmap with different lines of research to advance the study of human adaptation to motherhood.

One first line of research should focus on identifying brain cell substrates. According to the experts, it is improbable that the large-scale dynamics of changes in grey matter at morphological and molecular levels be produced exclusively by plasticity. In rats, researchers observed that hormonal fluctuation, particularly at the end of the pregnancy, affects the plasticity of neurons and microglia, with a greater proliferation of this latter cell type.

A second line should work towards describing the mechanisms by which sexual hormones, especially estrogens, bring on the changes detected in structural and behavioural reorganisation. Given the hormonal environment existing during the pregnancy and postpartum period and the interactive nature of these molecules, it is most likely that these changes are the result of a complex exchange of steriods and hormonal peptides. To understand this role better, research must be conducted on a greater number of hormones and metabolites, with special attention put on oxytocin and prolactin.

The third challenge focuses on identifying the psychological evolution occurring during pregnancy and postpartum and characterising the functional changes in the brain responsible for the development of human conduct. In studies with rats, molecular and morphological changes were observed accompanied by the emergence of maternal behaviour, but not so in humans. Not only that, but the association between neuroanatomic changes and different aspects of maternal behaviour in humans are few and difficult to replicate. Improving the methodology in MRI studies in humans and questionnaires will allow us better to infer the link between the brain changes observed and the different components of maternal behaviour. All this while bearing in mind extrinsic postpartum factors, which could induce changes in the circuits related to maternal care.

A scarce number of studies conducted on women

Most studies conducted up to date have used rats. That is why the researchers put emphasis on the importance of developing research studies on women. “There are coincidences between humans and other animals, but there are many cerebral differences, particularly on the cerebral cortex, the most evolved part of the brain, and hormonal differences, given that the "choreography" between sexual hormones is different in each species”, explains Camila Servin, researcher from the UAB Department of Psychiatry and Legal Medicine and at the Hospital del Mar Reseach Institute.

“Until 2017 we had not begun to study changes in the brain occuring during pregnancy, and until now very little has been studied on the role of hormones and the psychological environment”, explains Òscar Vilarroya, researcher from the UAB Department of Psychiatry and Legal Medicine and at the Hospital del Mar Reseach Institute. “Surprisingly,the study of what is one of the most generalised and important human experiences has never taken central stage”, the neuroscientist concludes.

Also participating in the paper were researchers from the Biomedical Research Networking Centre in Mental Health (CIBERSAM) and from Ohio State University.

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JOURNAL

Nature Reviews Neuroscience

DOI

10.1038/s41583-023-00733-6 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Literature review

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The transition to motherhood: linking hormones, brain and behaviour

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

18-Sep-2023

Chung-Ang University researchers use carbon capture and utilization technology to recycle industrial carbon dioxide

A new study discusses a sustainable process for the efficient conversion of carbon dioxide emissions into commercially valuable products

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CHUNG ANG UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: REPURPOSING INDUSTRIAL WASTES SUCH AS CARBON DIOXIDE CAN SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE AT SCALE. view more 

CREDIT: PUBLIC DOMAIN PHOTOS FROM OPENVERSE HTTPS://OPENVERSE.ORG/IMAGE/60ED779D-0AFA-4564-A979-A448F167DB81?Q=CHIMNEY

Climate change is a serious concern that needs to be prioritized globally. Nations across the globe are drafting policies to reduce the impact of global warming and climate change. For instance, the European Union has recommended a comprehensive set of guidelines to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Likewise, the European Green Deal puts heavy emphasis on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The capture of emitted carbon dioxide (CO2) and its chemical conversion into useful commercial products is one way to limit global warming and mitigate its effects. Scientists are now looking into carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technology as a promising approach to expanding CO2 storage and conversion at a low cost. Global CCU research, however, is largely limited to only about 20 conversion compounds. Given the variety of CO2 emission sources, it is critical to have a wider range of chemical compounds, which necessitates delving deeper into processes that can convert CO2 even at low concentrations.

A team of researchers from Chung-Ang University in Korea are conducting research on CCU processes that use waste materials or abundant natural resources as raw materials to ensure their economic feasibility. The team, led by Professor Sungho Yoon and Associate Professor Chul-Jin Lee, recently published a study where they discuss the utilization of industrial CO2 and dolomite—a common and abundant sedimentary rock that is a rich source of calcium and magnesium—for the production of two commercially viable products: calcium formate and magnesium oxide. The study was made available online on May 22, 2023 and was published in Volume 469 of the Chemical Engineering Journal on August 1, 2023.

“There is a growing interest in utilizing CO2 to produce valuable products that can help mitigate climate change while creating economic benefits. By combining CO2 hydrogenation and cation exchange reaction, a process for simultaneous metal oxide purification and high-value formate production has been developed,” remarks Prof. Yoon.

In their study, the researchers used a catalyst (Ru/bpyTN-30-CTF) to add hydrogen to CO2, which resulted in the production of two value-added products, calcium formate and magnesium oxide. Calcium formate, a cement additive, de-icing agent, and animal feed additive, is also used in leather tanning. Magnesium oxide, in contrast, is extensively used in the construction and pharmaceutical industries. The process was not only viable but also extremely rapid, yielding the products in just 5 minutes at room temperature. Moreover, the researchers estimated that this process could reduce global warming potential by 20% when compared to traditional calcium formate production methods.

The team also evaluated if their method could potentially replace the current production approaches by checking its environmental impact and economic feasibility. “Based on the results, we can say that our method offers an eco-friendly CO2 conversion alternative that could replace the conventional approaches, potentially contributing to the reduction of industrial CO2 emissions,” Prof. Yoon explains.

Although converting CO2 into meaningful products sounds promising, these processes are not always easy to scale up. Most of the CCU technologies have not been commercialized owing to their low economic feasibility compared to the prevailing commercial processes. “We need to combine CCU processes with waste material recycling to make them both environmentally and economically beneficial. This may contribute to achieving a net-zero emissions goal in the future,” concludes a hopeful Dr. Lee.

***

Reference

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2023.143684

Authors: Hayoung Yoona, Taeksang Yoonb, Chul-Jin Leeb,c, Sungho Yoona

Affiliations:

aDepartment of Chemistry, Chung-Ang University, 84 Heukseok-ro, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea

bSchool of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, Chung-Ang University, 84 Heukseok-ro, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea

cDepartment of Intelligent Energy and Industry, Chung-Ang University, 84 Heukseok-ro, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea

 

About Chung-Ang University

Chung-Ang University is a private comprehensive research university located in Seoul, South Korea. It was started as a kindergarten in 1916 and attained university status in 1953. It is fully accredited by the Ministry of Education of Korea. Chung-Ang University conducts research activities under the slogan of “Justice and Truth.” Its new vision for completing 100 years is “The Global Creative Leader.” Chung-Ang University offers undergraduate, postgraduate, and doctoral programs, which encompass a law school, management program, and medical school; it has 16 undergraduate and graduate schools each. Chung-Ang University’s culture and arts programs are considered the best in Korea.

Website: https://neweng.cau.ac.kr/index.do

 

About Professor Sungho Yoon

Sungho Yoon is a Professor in the Department of Chemistry at Chung-Ang University. His group is researching inorganic catalysts for reactions like hydrogenation and carbonylation, aiming to create diverse spin-off applications with significant societal benefits.

Read more about Prof. Yoon here: https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/cau/researcher-profile?ep=1238

 

About Associate Professor Chul-Jin Lee

Chul-Jin Lee is an Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science at Chung-Ang University. His group is actively involved in sustainable process design, optimization, and the application of machine learning to process systems.

Read more about Prof. Lee here: https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/cau/researcher-profile?ep=993

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JOURNAL

Chemical Engineering Journal

DOI

10.1016/j.cej.2023.143684 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

ARTICLE TITLE

Kinetic conversion of magnesium and calcium ions of dolomite into useful value-added products using CO2

Why do some environmental shocks lead to disaster while others don't?

Peer-Reviewed Publication

COMPLEXITY SCIENCE HUB VIENNA

 

IMAGE: WE ARE LIVING IN A POLY-CRISIS, BUT KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PAST CAN HELP TO GUIDE THE WAY. view more 

CREDIT: © UNSPLASH

It's no longer just about stopping, but how we can live with climate change. To figure this out, we must delve into our cultures, as highlighted in a special issue of The Royal Society. A study by the Complexity Science Hub points out how our history could help guide the way.

Currently, we are grappling with a global crisis convergence. Various types of threats intersect, intertwine, and test our collective resilience, from climate change and economic inequality to political polarization. Although the scale and global reach of these challenges present new hurdles, these threats have been faced and, sometimes, overcome in the past. Societies today barely have time to recover from one crisis to the next, but we possess a significant advantage: knowledge. The knowledge we can obtain from our history through new methods.

DATA FROM MORE THAN 15O CRISES

CSH researchers Peter Turchin and Daniel Hoyer have pioneered fresh approaches to drawing lessons from history. Together with colleagues from different fields, they have compiled the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) as part of the Global History Databank Seshat, containing over 150 past crises spanning different time periods and regions.

When earthquakes shook the earth, droughts parched the land, or floods ravaged regions, some societies succumbed to social unrest, civil violence, or total collapse, while others exhibited resilience, maintaining essential social functions or even achieving improvement through systemic reforms that promoted well-being and increased democratic participation. Daniel Hoyer remarks, "What we observe is that not every ecological shock or climatic anomaly leads to collapse or even a severe crisis, and not every crisis involves a major environmental stressor." But what makes the difference? What drives collapse versus positive change?

DIVERGENT EXPERIENCES IN DIFFERENT TIMES AND PLACES

To illustrate the divergent dynamics experienced by past societies, and to highlight the comprehensiveness of their data, the researchers provide three examples. The Zapotec hilltop settlement of Monte Albán in southern Mexico emerged as the most significant settlement in the region. Extreme, persistent drought hit the region in the 9th century, and the once-great site of Monte Albán was entirely abandoned along with many other cities in Mesoamerica. However, recent research presented here shows that this was hardly a case of ‘societal collapse’, as many former residents of Monte Albán resettled in smaller communities nearby, likely without massive mortality, but rather through an ideological and socio-economic reorientation that also preserved many aspects of their society.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the immensely wealthy Qing Dynasty in China proved resilient to adverse ecological conditions – recurrent floods, droughts, swarms of locusts – during the early part of their reign, but by the 19th century, social pressures had built up leaving them more vulnerable to these same challenges. It was in this period that suffered the Taiping Rebellion, often seen as the bloodiest civil war in human history, and ultimately collapsed completely in 1912 after 250 years of rule. Learn more about the causes in a new study.

In between, the researchers highlight the Ottoman Empire, which faced daunting environmental conditions during the 16th century, including recurrent droughts and the Little Ice Age, leading to social unrest and numerous rebellions led by disgruntled local officials and wealthy families, yet they managed to maintain key social and political structures and avoided collapse, ruling a large swath of territory for several hundreds of years more.

GENERALIZABLE TO MULTIPLE CASES

“Many studies typically concentrate on a single event or a specific society. However, it is only by exploring the responses of all, or at least many, societies affected by a particular climate 'regime' that we can ascertain the causal influence and overall effectiveness of the environmental stressor,” Peter Turchin says. With this objective in mind, the researchers have developed a methodological framework aimed at producing insights that can be applied to numerous cases across different regions and time periods, helping identify the underlying causes of divergent outcomes.

UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS

"The course of a crisis hinges on numerous factors. Environmental forces are undeniably pivotal, but it's not as straightforward as a specific climate event triggering a predetermined societal response," asserts Turchin. Instead, these forces interact with cultural, political, and economic dynamics. Only by comprehending these dynamics can we fathom the interactions. Through their work on the CrisisDB program, the researchers and colleagues aim to unveil these patterns and pinpoint the key factors that either fortify or undermine resilience to contemporary climate shocks.

REDUCING SOCIAL INEQUALITY

One key initial finding is that slowly evolving structural forces, such as escalating social inequality, which also happens currently, can erode social resilience. Hoyer emphasizes, "Dealing with large-scale threats demands considerable societal cohesion." As an example, he cites the Covid pandemic. Societies that showed higher levels of cohesion and the capacity for collective action before Covid broke out navigated the pandemic more effectively and successfully implemented the necessary distancing measures. "Given that we reside in an era marked by increasing ecological shocks, economic disruptions, inequality, and major conflicts, our focus should be on reducing these structural pressures to build this kind of cohesion and resilience," Hoyer underscores.

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FIND OUT MORE

The study “Navigating Polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate” by Daniel Hoyer, James S. Bennett, Jenny Reddish, Samantha Holder, Robert Howard, Majid Benam, Jill Levine, Francis Ludlow, Gary Feinman and Peter Turchin was published in Philosophical Transactions B (doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0402).

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ABOUT THE COMPLEXITY SCIENCE HUB

The mission of the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) is to host, educate, and inspire complex systems scientists dedicated to making sense of Big Data to boost science and society. Scientists at the Complexity Science Hub develop methods for the scientific, quantitative, and predictive understanding of complex systems.

The CSH is a joint initiative of AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Central European University CEU, Danube University Krems, Graz University of Technology, Medical University of Vienna, TU Wien, VetMedUni Vienna, Vienna University of Economics and Business, and Austrian Economic Chambers (WKO). https://www.csh.ac.at

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Interested in more?

BALI RICE EXPERIMENT

The Special Issue also features a study by Stephen Lansing (CSH External Faculty and Santa Fe Institute) and I Wayan Alit Artha Wiguna (Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian Bali) that could not only transform rice farming methods but also significantly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Asia alone boasts over 200 million rice farms, and rice fields contribute to a substantial 11% of global methane emissions. This study has the potential to be a game-changer. Initial indications suggest that by regulating irrigation, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by a remarkable 70%, while also reducing excess commercial nitrogen fertilizer flowing from rice paddies to rivers and coral reefs.

With this method, the rice field was not flooded as usual and therefore did not provide an ideal environment for anaerobic, methane-emitting bacteria. Instead, it was drained and irrigated only when hairline cracks appeared in the surface. In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the farmer who owned the demonstration plot increased his crop yield on the drained field by more than 20%.

Lansing, who is an ecological anthropologist, has been researching Indonesia's rice paddies since his arrival in Bali in 1974.

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JOURNAL

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences

DOI

10.1098/rstb.2022.0402 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Navigating Polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

18-Sep-2023