Tuesday, October 14, 2025

 

Tracking infectious disease spread via commuting pattern data



Metapopulation modeling method accounts for daily mobility patterns.




American Institute of Physics

Depiction of the commuting network in South Korea 

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A depiction of the commuting network in South Korea.

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Credit: Jae Woo Lee





WASHINGTON, Oct. 14, 2025 — For countless millions across the globe, commuting to work or school is an everyday routine. But during a pandemic, the practice can contribute enormously to the spread of infectious disease, a fact that many traditional metapopulation models often overlook because they are designed primarily for migration and treat people as if they rarely move locally.

In Chaos, by AIP Publishing, a team of researchers from South Korea introduced a Commuter Metapopulation Model (CMPM) to address these limitations and expand the focus to include daily mobility patterns. The model was used to simulate the spread of COVID-19 with actual commuting data provided by the country’s second-largest telecommunication network, revealing it could better capture spatial variety in outbreak patterns, from rapid spread in urban centers to delayed or localized outbreaks in rural areas.

“Unlike traditional models that treat population as a single unit, CMPM follows individuals along their actual commuting routes,” said author Jae Woo Lee. “It uses data from mobile phones to track when people leave their homes, where they go during the day, and when they return at night. This gives scientists a much more realistic map of how diseases spread through everyday human movement.”

In contrast to traditional metapopulation tracking models, the CMPM is designed to reallocate populations based on commuting flows, rather than static regional boundaries, and appears to be much better suited to reflect the real-life nuances of population mobility. For example, the model can track how infections can quickly flare up in large, crowded cities like Seoul and spread to nearby towns connected by commuter traffic, and how more isolated places like Jeju Island are likely to see a much slower spread since fewer people move in and out.

“Traditional models would have missed these crucial differences, predicting a smoother, almost uniform spread that doesn’t match reality,” said Lee.

The researchers hope the enhanced performance of their model underscores the essential role of realistic mobility data in epidemic modeling and that it can help inform the development of targeted intervention strategies that save lives.

“Our daily journeys don’t just define our routines; they also shape the path of a pandemic,” said Lee. “By showing how commuting patterns [with real-time data] shape this path, the CMPM can help governments and health officials design smarter responses. Instead of a one-size-fits-all lockdown, they can focus on high-traffic commuter corridors or protect vulnerable regions with limited connections.”

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The article “Commuter metapopulation models for epidemic spreading in human mobility networks” is authored by Changhee Cho, Okyu Kwon, KyoungEun Lee, and Jae Woo Lee. It will appear in Chaos on Oct. 14, 2025 (DOI: 10.1063/5.0284992). After that date, it can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0284992.

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

Chaos is devoted to increasing the understanding of nonlinear phenomena in all areas of science and engineering and describing their manifestations in a manner comprehensible to researchers from a broad spectrum of disciplines. See https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha.

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Underweight children cost the NHS as much per child as children with obesity, Oxford study finds.




University of Oxford





The NHS incurs an estimated £340 million in additional healthcare costs annually due to weight-related health problems in children – but it is not just obesity driving the costs. New research from the University of Oxford reveals that underweight children need comparable medical support as those who are severely obese, challenging assumptions about childhood health priorities.

The study, published in JAMA Network Open and funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), provides the first national picture of healthcare costs linked to children’s weight, using NHS electronic health records from more than 268,000 children aged 2–15 across England. It found that childhood weight issues – affecting around 2.5 million children – cost the NHS an estimated £340 million each year.

Importantly, the research shows that healthcare costs rise sharply after a child’s weight is formally recorded, suggesting that identifying weight issues triggers additional medical support – but only if appropriate services are in place.

Key findings that matter for practice

The research tracked healthcare use in the year before and after children had their weight measured in GP practices, revealing the additional costs ('excess costs') compared to healthy-weight children:

  • Four to five-year-olds with severe obesity had the highest excess costs at £472 per year
  • Girls with severe obesity cost more than boys (£253 vs £138 annually)
  • Only White children showed clearly higher healthcare costs across all unhealthy weight groups.
  • Healthcare use was substantially higher after weight was measured for underweight children, and moderately higher for children with severe obesity.

“This work suggests we may have been looking at this the wrong way,” said Dr Olu Onyimadu, lead author from Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences. “It’s not just obesity that drives costs. Underweight children may need comparable support and generate similar costs per capita to the NHS. We need to think about the full spectrum of unhealthy weight when planning services.”

The findings come at a critical time as the government implements its 10-year health plan, which emphasises a shift from treatment to prevention. The research offers NHS decision-makers clear evidence about where to target resources.

Professor Stavros Petrou, co-senior author and NIHR Senior Investigator, said:

“These numbers give commissioners and practices the evidence they need to make the case for weight-management services. Early intervention across the weight spectrum could generate substantial savings while improving children’s health.”

The ethnic variations revealed in the study could help the NHS target support more effectively. White children consistently showed higher excess costs when overweight or obese compared with children from other ethnic backgrounds – insights that could help address health inequalities.

Professor Mara Violato, co-senior author based in Oxford Population Health, added:

“With 27% of children aged 2–15 living with overweight or obesity, plus those affected by underweight, we are looking at a huge opportunity for preventive care. These detailed cost breakdowns by age and sex can help clinical and budgetary service planners identify which children to prioritise.”

What this means for families and the NHS

The research suggests that once a child’s weight issue is identified, the NHS responds with additional support – but this only works if appropriate services exist. The findings strengthen the economic case for investing in both prevention programmes and weight-management services in primary care.

For parents, the findings indicate that concerns about children being too thin are just as valid as worries about excess weight. The research shows that once weight issues are identified by GPs, children typically receive more medical support – from nutritional advice to mental-health services – highlighting the importance of regular check-ups.

For commissioners and practices developing business cases for new services, the study provides the robust evidence needed to demonstrate value for money. Because the methodology aligns with UK clinical standards, the findings are directly applicable to NHS decision-making.

The research team emphasised that these cost estimates can now be used to assess whether specific weight-management programmes offer value for money, helping the NHS make informed decisions about which interventions to fund. The researchers note that BMI measurements are not routinely recorded for all children in primary care, and future research will explore patterns over longer time periods.

ENDS

 

 

Notes to editors:
Funding:
This research was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) Oxford and Thames Valley. Dr Onyimadu and Dr Astbury were additionally supported by the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the NIHR Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre. Professor  Violato was partially supported by the NIHR Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre. Professor Petrou was supported by an NIHR Senior Investigator Award.

 

Contact:

To arrange interviews with any of the authors please contact communications@phc.ox.ac.uk.


About the University of Oxford 
Oxford University has been placed number 1 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for the ninth year running, and number 3 in the QS World Rankings 2025. At the heart of this success are the twin-pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.

Oxford is world-famous for research and teaching excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research alongside our personalised approach to teaching sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions. 

Oxford University’s Medical Sciences Division is one of the largest biomedical research centres in Europe, with over 2,500 people involved in research and more than 2,800 students. The University is rated the best in the world for medicine and life sciences, and it is home to the UK’s top-ranked medical school. It has one of the largest clinical trial portfolios in the UK and great expertise in taking discoveries from the lab into the clinic. Partnerships with the local NHS Trusts enable patients to benefit from close links between medical research and healthcare delivery. 

Within the division, the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences is the largest centre for academic primary care in the UK, and leads world-class research and training to rethink the way healthcare is delivered in general practice and other primary care settings. The department’s main research focus is on the prevention, early diagnosis and management of common illness, bringing together academics from many different backgrounds to work together to produce benefits for the NHS, for populations and for patients. www.phc.ox.ac.uk.

Oxford Population Health (the Nuffield Department of Population Health at the University of Oxford) investigates the causes and prevention of disease. The department has around 1000 staff, students and academic visitors working in a number of world-renowned population health research groups, including the Health Economics Research Centre, and other groups working on clinical trials, cancer epidemiology, public health, ethics and health record linkage. It is also a key partner in the Oxford University Big Data Institute.

About the NIHR

The mission of the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) is to improve the health and wealth of the nation through research. We do this by:

  • Funding high quality, timely research that benefits the NHS, public health and social care;
  • Investing in world-class expertise, facilities and a skilled delivery workforce to translate discoveries into improved treatments and services;
  • Partnering with patients, service users, carers and communities, improving the relevance, quality and impact of our research;
  • Attracting, training and supporting the best researchers to tackle complex health and social care challenges;
  • Collaborating with other public funders, charities and industry to help shape a cohesive and globally competitive research system;
  • Funding applied global health research and training to meet the needs of the poorest people in low and middle income countries.

NIHR is funded by the Department of Health and Social Care. Its work in low and middle income countries is principally funded through UK international development funding from the UK government.

 

Social adversity and triple-negative breast cancer incidence among black women



JAMA Network Open



About The Study: 

This cohort study shows that high social adversity is associated with a high incidence of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) among Black women. As subtype is intrinsic to tumor development, these findings suggest an early and critical source of downstream breast cancer survival disparities. The findings of this study suggest potential social (epi)genomic and gene-environment interactions between social adversity and TNBC development in Black women.



Corresponding author: To contact the corresponding author, Neha Goel, M.D., M.P.H., email goeln1@mskcc.org.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/ 

(doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.37378)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article 

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About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication.

 

The fundamental traditional Chinese medicine constitution theory serves as a crucial basis for the development and application of food and medicine homology products




Tsinghua University Press
Food and medicine homology (FMH) products can prevent and treat susceptible diseases by regulating unbalanced constitutions. 

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There is a correlation between constitution and disease. Individuals with unbalanced constitutions are more prone to developing particular diseases. Under the guidance of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) constitution theory, FMH products can regulate unbalanced constitutions to prevent and treat diseases.

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Credit: The fundamental traditional Chinese medicine constitution theory serves as a crucial basis for the development and application of food and medicine homology products, Tsinghua University Press




In recent years, multiple global studies have consistently affirmed that early implementation and management is critical in reducing the risk of illness. Food and medicine homology (FMH) products are dual-functional substances that play both therapeutic and dietary roles. Integrating FMH products into daily life will become a critical strategy for the prevention of disease and the accomplishment of “the Healthy China Initiative”. However, at present, the development and current application of FMH products rely primarily on Western medical and nutritional frameworks, which fail to highlight the “preventive treatment of disease” and limit the precision and diversity of product positioning.

A team of traditional Chinese medicine scientists led by Ling-Ru Li from National Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine Constitution and Preventive Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine in Beijing, China recently put forward that the fundamental traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) constitution theory serves as a crucial basis for the development and application of FMH products. aiming to promote the development and application of FMH products.

The team published their article in Food & Medicine Homology on July 23, 2025. “In this article, we present a viewpoint on the development and application of FMH products to advance research in the field. FMH products, with their unique TCM characteristics, should be applied under the guidance of the TCM theory. The TCM constitution theory is a vital basis for the development and application of FMH products,”said Ling-Ru Li, senior author of the paper, professor in the Beijing University of Chinese Medicine. Dr Li also serves as a Standing Committee Member and Deputy Secretary-General of Constitution Committee of the Chinese Society of Traditional Chinese Medicine.

Constitution refers to the relatively stable characteristics that an individual exhibits in terms of morphological structure, physiological functions, and psychological states throughout their entire life cycle. The TCM constitution theory takes the characteristics of various constitutions into account and describes the physiological and pathological characteristics of different human constitutions. There are nine different types of body constitutions in the TCM constitution theory: “Balanced constitution”, “Qi-Deficiency constitution”, “Yang-Deficiency constitution”, “Yin-Deficiency constitution”, “Phlegm-Dampness constitution”, “Dampness-Heat constitution”, “Blood-Stasis constitution”, “Qi-Stagnation constitution”, and “Inherited-Special constitution.” Moreover, the TCM constitution theory argues that body constitution is not only relatively stable but also dynamically variable. The constitution of the body is influenced by various internal and external factors, such as heredity, the environment, an individual’s mental state, nutrition and exercise.

The research team point out that body constitution types are associated with specific disease susceptibilities and regulating body constitution can prevent disease. Ling-Ru Li said,“According to observations of clinical cases, our research team discovered that there is a correlation between constitution and disease.Whether the constitution is balanced is a key endogenous factor in disease occurrence. Individuals with unbalanced constitutions are more prone to developing particular diseases. In conclusion, modulating the body constitution by eating personalized FMH products serves as a cornerstone for disease prevention. Developing and applying FMH products under the guidance of the TCM constitution theory can regulate unbalanced constitutions to achieve disease prevention and treatment.”

Li's research team raised some recommendations to facilitate the rational development and application of FMH products on the basis of the TCM constitution theory.

The government could launch educational initiatives and media campaigns related to the theory of TCM constitutions to help individuals gain a deeper understanding of constitutional characteristics and FMH products.

Enterprises could commercialize many effective scientific research achievements to facilitate the development and application of new FMH products,which may yield enormous dividends.

Healthcare professionals could recommend FMH products tailored to individual constitutions and provide a wide variety of medicinal diets for the public.

These approaches encourage individuals to appropriately use FMH products and proactively manage their well-being under the guidance of the TCM constitution theory, thereby reducing the societal burden of disease.

Other contributors include Yan-Fei Zheng, Ya-Xin Cao, Xue-Ying Zhao and Jing Guo from National Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine Constitution and Preventive Medicine at Beijing University of Chinese Medicine in Beijing,China; and Wen-Long Sun and Jing-Han Jia from School of Life Sciences and Medicine at Shandong University of Technology in Zibo , China.

 

About the Authors

Dr. Ling-Ru Li is a full professor in National Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine Constitution and Preventive Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, China. Her research interests focus on basic research in constitution regulation for the prevention and treatment of metabolic chronic diseases, as well as the development of health and wellness products. Until now, she has published 190 papers, including 51 papers indexed by SCI. She presided over 20 national/provincial scientific research projects, owns 2 national invention patents.