Armenia is navigating one of its most consequential geopolitical transitions since independence in 1991, as it seeks to recalibrate security ties away from Moscow while courting Western support, says a report published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.
Armenia is navigating one of its most consequential geopolitical transitions since independence in 1991, as it seeks to recalibrate security ties away from Moscow while courting Western support, as outlined in the paper by independent researcher Ebru Akgün. The report warns that the country is now at the centre of a “corridor war” between the US, Russia, and Iran, as new transport and energy initiatives highlight Yerevan’s strategic vulnerability.
The US-backed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) corridor is intended to link Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory in Syunik province. Under Armenian sovereign and customs control, the project is intended to provide both economic incentives and an implicit security guarantee.
“By promoting this ‘Crossroads of Peace’ vision, the United States is attempting to create a vested economic interest in Armenia’s territorial integrity,” the report by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute states.
However, the corridor also exposes Armenia to geopolitical friction. “the TRIPP corridor brings its own set of risks. While it offers an economic lifeline and a potential implicit security shield, it places Armenia at the heart of a “corridor war” between the West, Russia, and Iran,” the report says.
Tehran has expressed deep concern over increased Western influence in Syunik, viewing it as a “red line,” while Moscow considers corridors not overseen by its security services as a violation of the 2020 ceasefire.
“The TRIPP corridor is as much a security challenge as it is an opportunity, requiring Armenia to balance American ambitions against the immediate geographical realities of its neighbours,” the report notes.
Armenia has simultaneously begun modernising its military with contracts for French GM200 radars, Mistral anti-air missiles, Indian Akash-1S systems, and Pinaka rockets, moving away from a decades-long dependence on Russian hardware. Yet the report cautions that “buying Western” does not automatically translate into security. Existing Soviet-era command-and-control networks remain vulnerable to electronic surveillance and jamming, leaving Armenia exposed until full technical independence can be achieved.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has championed a “dual-track” approach, combining continued hosting of Russian forces with Western civilian instruments such as the European Union Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA), which has been extended until 2028. The government argues the mix provides “visibility-based deterrence” but acknowledges that civilian missions cannot substitute for hard military guarantees.
The stakes are heightened ahead of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections. The report warns that public support hinges on whether projects like TRIPP and arms modernisation translate into tangible security and economic benefits. “Armenia’s ability to sustain its independence will depend on whether its Western partners are willing to provide actionable security pathways that go beyond binoculars and political statements,” the report concludes.
With Moscow retaining control over much of Armenia’s gas infrastructure and Iran wary of northern transit routes, the country faces a narrow path: maintain sovereignty through Western engagement while avoiding provocation of its powerful neighbours.
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