Kanaky: Mobilization on 21 March against colonialism

Thursday 26 March 2026, by An Gwesped

For several months, the French government has been trying to impose on Kanaky an exit from the framework of the Nouméa Accords, by calling into question the decolonization process, even though it is recognized by the UN. The so-called “Bougival Agreement”, imposed in July 2025 against the advice of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), provides for the creation of a “state” of Kanaky-New Caledonia integrated into the French republic. A formula that in no way corresponds to independence.

On 24 February 2026, the French Senate adopted the corresponding constitutional revision, despite strong criticism, including from the non-independence camp. However, all the signals are red: the absence of local consensus, a historical condition of political equilibrium in Kanaky, poses the risk of a new explosion. The executive nevertheless persists in moving forward, in continuity with the methods already at work during the third referendum imposed in 2021 or the attempt to unblock the electoral body in 2024.

Upholding the right to self-determination

It is in this context that the mobilization of 21 March is being organized, on the occasion of the International Day against Racial Discrimination and the opening of the Anti-Colonial and Anti-Racist Week. The organisers call for “the immediate abandonment of the Bougival draft agreement” and for “respect for the Kanak people’s right to self-determination”.

While the text is due to be examined by the National Assembly at the end of March, the challenge is clear: to prevent a new passage by force and to impose the reopening of discussions within the framework of the Noumea agreements. More broadly, it is a question of recalling that no lasting solution can be imposed against the will of the Kanak people.

Repression and colonial justice

This policy is accompanied by massive repression. The opinion issued in January 2026 by the National Consultative Commission on Human Rights (CNCDH) draws a damning conclusion: “violent, sometimes lethal repression”, different judicial treatment between Kanak and non-Kanak, "collective retaliation measures” targeting the Kanak populations. More than 2,500 police custody cases were recorded, almost exclusively targeting Kanaks, while loyalist militias were not prosecuted.

In this context, the death on 6 February of Frédéric Grochain, a 31-year-old Kanak transferred to mainland France after the 2024 revolts, was deeply shocking. Found dead in his cell after months of isolation, he embodied the consequences of a prison policy that prolonged colonial domination: forced release, isolation, failures in health care. For the FLNKS, he is “a direct victim of the colonial judicial and prison system”.

l’Anticapitaliste

Attached documents

• kanaky-mobilization-on-21-march-against-colonialism_a9467-2.pdf (PDF - 2.2 MiB)
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Kanaky

• Decolonisation now in Kanaky!
• No to the Darmanin law! Respect for the Kanak people’s right to self-determination!
• Kanaky – put a stop (really) to the time of colonies!
• An insurrectional climate?
• A referendum that is far from a level playing field

• An Gwesped

 

Supply Boat Caught Smuggling Drugs Now Issued a Distress Call off Australia

French troops boarded the vessel off Polynesia and seized nearly 5 tons of cocaine (High Commissioner of French Polynesia)

Published Mar 13, 2026 8:33 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

Nearly two months after French authorities intercepted a small vessel smuggling a large amount of cocaine across the Pacific, the same vessel has now turned up off Australia and issued a distress call. ABC News Australia reports the vessel was escorted into Sydney harbor on Friday, March 13, after the Australian Maritime Safety Authority became involved.

The vessel named Raider is reported to have made a distress call on Thursday, reporting a shortage of food and fuel. A representative of the International Transport Workers Federation told ABC News that when they contacted the ship, they were told it was down to just 200 liters of water for the 11 crew onboard.

AMSA coordinated the response, including the provisioning of supplies to the vessel. It escorted the Raider to a detention area in Sydney while reporting they were also working with the Australian Border Force and New South Wales Police.

The Raider first drew attention from the French Navy, which boarded the vessel in French Polynesian waters on January 16. A search discovered 96 bales containing a total of 4.87 tons of cocaine. In a decision that was later questioned by some, the French forces decided to seize the drugs but released the vessel and its crew. The cocaine was disposed of in the ocean, and the Raider was permitted to continue on its voyage.

Authorities noted at the time that the drugs were likely being smuggled to Australia and were not destined for French Polynesia. They said the region had become part of a known smuggling route for drugs from South America.

The ship next turned up in the Cook Islands after issuing another distress call. It stopped in the Cook Islands to make engine repairs. Later, ABC News reports it was heading toward Australia but briefly diverted toward New Caledonia before arriving off the Australian coast.

ITF’s Australian coordinator, Ian Bray, told ABC News the crew is from Ecuador and Honduras, and they were hired in December to sail the vessel from Panama to Australia. They understood they were delivering the Raider to its new owners in Australia.

ABC reports the crew has not been arrested. They are unlikely to face any charges, as the drug smuggling was discovered outside Australian authority.

The crew is expected to be held in immigration detention, reports ABC. AMSA is checking the Raider to determine if the vessel is seaworthy. The crew from the Raider is likely to be repatriated to Central America, while it is unclear what will happen to the vessel.

 

Recovery from whaling reveals the role of age in Humpback reproduction 

Older singing male whales increasingly successful at siring offspring compared to younger males.

University of St. Andrews

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Humpback whale song  New Caledonia

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Credit: University of St Andrews

New research from the University of St Andrews published today (27 February) in Current Biology, has shown that the role of age in male humpback whale reproduction has changed as populations recover from centuries of exploitation.   

Whaling drove many large whale populations to the brink of extinction. But its legacy runs deeper than a drastic decline in numbers. Decades after commercial whaling ended, its impacts continue to shape whale populations, influencing not just how many whales there are, but which males get to reproduce.   

The study assessed nearly two decades of data from humpback whales breeding in New Caledonia in the South Pacific. Drawing on long-term monitoring conducted by the NGO Opération Cétacés, the scientists examined changes in age structure, behaviour, and paternity in male whales.  

They found that during the early years of recovery, the population was dominated by young males. Over time, as overall numbers increased, the age structure shifted to a more even age distribution amongst older and younger males. Crucially, as older individuals became more common, they became increasingly successful at siring offspring compared to younger males.  

Humpback whales have never been observed mating in the wild, meaning that who fathers a calf remained largely unknown until now.  

The international team led by the Sea Mammal Research Unit at the University of St Andrews applied genetic analyses to identify paternity and used a so-called ‘epigenetic molecular clock’ to estimate the age of individual whales; all from just a small piece of whale skin.  

Male humpback whales are famous for producing some of the most elaborate songs in the animal kingdom. Their powerful vocal displays can often be heard far across breeding grounds and are thought to play a role in mating. Males may also escort females or engage in intense physical competition with rival males.  

Senior author of the study, Dr. Ellen Garland of the Sea Mammal Research Unit, said: “Mating behaviour, and who was successful at mating, changed with these shifts in age structure. As the population recovered, there were more older males than expected singing, escorting females, and successfully fathering calves compared to younger animals”.  

The findings suggest that male humpback whales may need time to learn and refine their singing and competitive tactics, giving experienced males a clear advantage. Additionally, as the population grows, females may also become more selective, which could lead to more success among males with favourable traits or the strongest performance.  

The new study highlights the importance of ongoing research on recovering populations to understand how the consequences of exploitation shape population dynamics and reproduction over time. It also shows how most of our knowledge has come from studying a shifted baseline – scientists never actually studied these behaviours in an unexploited population as all modern research came during or after whaling.  

Dr Franca Eichenberger, lead author of the study from the Sea Mammal Research Unit at the University of St Andrews, said: “It is only now, as whale populations recover and new analytical tools become available, that we are beginning to understand how far-reaching the consequences of whaling truly are. The impacts extend beyond population size — they shape behaviour, competition, and reproduction.”  

Dr Eichenberger added: “Virtually all populations of whales have changed due to whaling; our work shows that they continue to change as they recover. This is why the continued long-term monitoring of previously exploited whale populations is so important. Humpback whales have shown a remarkable comeback over recent years. Now is the time we can learn so much more about their behaviour and life history. We just need to keep looking.”  

---

Journal

Current Biology

DOI

10.1016/j.cub.2026.01.018 

Method of Research

Meta-analysis

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Changes in age-related sexual selection in a humpback whale population recovering from exploitation

Article Publication Date

27-Feb-2026'

A breaching humpback whale off New Caledonia in the South Pacific. 

Credit

Photo credit: Opération Cétacés - Claire Garrigue

A group of male humpback whales physically competing to be closest to the female of the group, as observed on their breeding ground in New Caledonia in the South Pacific.

Credit

Opération Cétacés - Claire Bonneville.

A humpback whale lunging its head out of the water with the New Caledonian coastline in the background.

Credit

Opération Cétacés - Claire Bonneville.

French Senate backs New Caledonia reform, but consensus remains elusive

France’s Senate has approved a controversial constitutional reform aimed at reshaping the future of New Caledonia, setting the stage for a political battle as the bill heads to the National Assembly.


Issued on: 25/02/2026 - RFI

The Senate chamber, the upper house of the French Parliament. © Alain Jocard / AFP

Backed by a comfortable majority of 215 votes to 41 on Tuesday, the text – championed by the government as a pathway to renewed stability in the Pacific territory – now faces a far more uncertain reception among MPs.

Opening the debate, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu framed the reform as a necessary step forward.

“The status quo is not a viable option,” he told senators, warning that inaction would amount to abandoning “republican ideals, social progress and the renewed construction of peace” in the archipelago.

The government has presented the proposal as a carefully negotiated compromise, built on agreements reached with a majority of New Caledonia’s political forces – notably the Bougival Agreement of July 2025 and the Élysée–Oudinot Agreement signed in January 2026 under President Emmanuel Macron.

The bill lays out a two-step roadmap. First, it provides for a local referendum to be held before 26 July, 2026, asking New Caledonian voters to approve or reject the Bougival agreement.

Second, it proposes embedding in the French Constitution the creation of a “State of New Caledonia” – a unique entity within the Republic, with its own nationality and the capacity for international recognition.

Senators also backed an amendment setting 20 December, 2026 as the latest possible date for long-delayed provincial elections – a crucial vote that will determine the composition of the territory’s local government after repeated postponements since 2024.

New Caledonia independence bloc rejects deal giving powers but no referendum

No easy alternative

For the government, the reform represents the best route forward, with ministers warning that the alternative to a political process is continued uncertainty.

That argument has found backing among the Senate’s right-leaning majority, which broadly supports the agreements as the most realistic compromise on the table.

Yet the situation on the ground remains fragile. The pro-independence FLNKS movement has rejected the deal, arguing it falls short of full sovereignty – a position that raises questions about the reform’s legitimacy in the territory.

Several lawmakers have warned that pushing ahead without broader consensus risks reigniting tensions in Nouméa, particularly given the memory of the deadly unrest in May 2024.

Doubts also extend beyond the independence camp, with some non-independence figures questioning whether the reform can deliver lasting stability.

The Socialist Party, meanwhile, abstained in the Senate, signalling a cautious stance and calling for more time to rebuild dialogue.

Independence party walks away from French deal on New Caledonia

Potential pitfalls

While the Senate vote gives the government some momentum, the road ahead looks far less certain.

The bill faces a difficult passage in the National Assembly from 31 March, with opposition expected from both the left and the far right, and the risk of procedural battles complicating debates.

Much will depend on Socialist MPs, who hold a pivotal position but remain wary. They have already signalled that, without changes to the timetable or approach, they are likely to vote against the reform.

Critics argue the government has prioritised speed over consensus, raising concerns over both its method and its ability to secure a durable settlement.

(with newswires)

Ni

Nickel price jumps as Indonesia’s top mine cuts output

Staff Writer | February 11, 2026 | 

Weda Bay Nickel mine. (Image courtesy of PT Weda Bay Nickel.)

Nickel prices rose for a fourth straight day Wednesday after Indonesia ordered the world’s largest nickel mine to sharply cut output in a move aimed at tightening global supply and lifting prices.

LME nickel climbed 2% to $17,835 a tonne as of 6:45 a.m. London time, after earlier touching $17,910, extending a rally of more than 20% since mid-December amid speculative buying and heightened geopolitical tensions.

Indonesia plans to issue production quotas of 260 million to 270 million tonnes of nickel ore this year, according to Bloomberg, slightly above an earlier estimate of 250 million to 260 million tonnes but far below the 379 million tonnes targeted for 2025. Authorities manage output through annual mining permits, known as RKABs, and can revise volumes mid-year.

PT Weda Bay Nickel will receive a 12 million tonne ore quota this year, down from 42 million tonnes in 2025. The mine, located on Halmahera in North Maluku, is owned by Tsingshan Holding Group Co, France’s Eramet SA and PT Aneka Tambang. Eramet confirmed the reduced quota and said it plans to seek a revision, while the county’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said quotas remain under evaluation.

Price control

Indonesia is trying to rein in a persistent global surplus after its production surged to about 65% of world supply, triggering a two-year price slump that forced higher-cost rivals in Australia and New Caledonia to shut down.

The quota cut will weigh heavily on Weda Bay, which had planned to expand output to more than 60 million tonnes of ore to support a nearby industrial park. Instead, it has imported large volumes of ore from the Philippines to offset local shortages.

Nickel, used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries, has seen weaker-than-expected demand from the battery sector as some manufacturers shift to non-nickel chemistries.

In January, Macquarie Group raised its 2026 nickel price forecast by 18% to $17,750 a tonne on the LME, citing a sharp drop in the expected surplus due to tighter Indonesian quotas.

Curbing coal

Indonesia is also curbing thermal coal output, with mining quotas in the world’s largest exporter set to fall by nearly 25% from a year earlier. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association said the cuts could force some operations to close and leave overseas buyers scrambling for alternative supplies.

(With files from Bloomberg)

Nornickel reports 36% rise in net profit

Reuters | February 11, 2026 | 

(Image from Nornickel’s Instagram page)

Russian metal producer Nornickel’s 2025 net profit rose by 36% year-on-year to $2.47 billion, following higher prices for some metals and foreign‑exchange effects, the company said on Wednesday.

The major producer of refined nickel and palladium said 2025 revenue increased by 10% to $13.76 billion while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization rose 9% to $5.67 billion.

Platinum, palladium and copper were among metals that gained last year, but Nornickel said the LME nickel average price fell by 10% year-on-year.

Other headwinds included Western sanctions on Russia, high interest rates and a strong rouble.

Targets delivered despite headwinds

Despite the difficulties, CEO Vladimir Potanin said: “Nornickel’s management has delivered on its annual targets, primarily on production and sales.”

In a statement, he added the company expected the major macroeconomic challenges for its business to persist into 2026.

Nornickel is not subject to direct Western sanctions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, but the measures have prompted some producers to avoid buying Russian metal. They have also complicated the process of making payments and restricted access to Western equipment.

Nornickel did not disclose its sales volumes or sales destinations. Revenue from metal sales rose 10% to $12.983 billion, mainly because of higher prices.

In response to global restrictions, the producer redirected its sales flows to Asia, which became the company’s largest market.

Nornickel’s CFO Sergei Malyshev said the company last year reduced its inventories that had accumulated because of sanctions.

Capital expenditure amounted to $2.6 billion in 2025, and the company expects a similar level in 2026.

Adjusted free cash flow was $1.5 billion.

Malyshev said Nornickel’s dividend payout will depend on its debt metrics, the economic situation, and the cash flow generated by the Bystrinsky copper and gold mine, which has been operating at capacity since around 2020. Earlier, Potanin said dividends for 2025 were unlikely

The company said it expects the global nickel market surplus to reach 275,000 metric tons in 2026, assuming Indonesia maintains the status quo, and anticipates the palladium market will be balanced in the medium term.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova; Editing by Vladimir Soldatkin and Barbara Lewis)

AU

Lupaka Gold may seize Peru state assets over unpaid $67M arbitration award

Staff Writer | January 19, 2026 | 

Credit: Lupaka Gold via LinkedIn

Lupaka Gold (TSXV: LPK) may look to seize certain Peruvian state-owned assets unless the South American nation pays the company its arbitration award, its chairman told Bloomberg.

Last year, the Canadian miner won an arbitration case against Peru for the government’s failure to curb community protests in 2018 that ultimately forced the closure of the company’s flagship gold project. The arbitration was launched in late 2019, with Lupaka alleging that the state had supported the protests that blockaded access to its Invicta project, located 120 kilometres north of the capital city Lima.

Before the situation escalated, Lupaka had completed 3,000 metres of underground workings, agreements from the community of Lacsanga and a 29-kilometre access road sufficient to handle 40-tonne ore trucks. The project was forecast to produce 185,000 oz. of gold equivalent over a six-year life.

$67 million unpaid

In June 2025, the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ruled that the Peruvian state must pay Lupaka $65 million. However, the arbitration award, now amounting to $67 million due to accumulation of interest, has yet to be paid, according to the company.

Without this payment, Lupaka said it has taken steps to identify overseas assets held by Peru as potential targets for seizure. Last November, it hired investigators to aid this process.

In a recent Bloomberg interview, Lupaka’s chairman Gordon Ellis said it has identified Peru’s national petroleum company Petroperu, which has “massive debts and pays large amounts of money on that on a regular basis,” as a potential target.

Other assets named by Ellis include ships and real estate as well as debt payments on Peru’s sovereign bonds.

Shares of Lupaka Gold have risen by over three-fold since its arbitration award win. At about C$0.25 apiece, the company has a market capitalization of C$5.7 million ($4.1 million).

Lupaka’s threats highlight the damaged relationship the Peruvian state has had with certain foreign investors. Last month, the Latin American nation was found in default in US federal court over another arbitration award totaling $91 million involving an airport contractor.

According to the Fraser Institute, Peru ranks behind some of its mineral-rich peers in the region such as San Juan, Argentina and Chile for investment attractiveness.

Caledonia secures $150M for Zimbabwe gold mine in rare international capital raise

Reuters | January 21, 2026 | 

Bilboes gold project in Zimbabwe. (Image courtesy of Caledonia Mining.)

Caledonia Mining Corporation on Wednesday said it raised $150 million via a seven-year convertible bond offering to fund its Bilboes project which, once operational, will be Zimbabwe’s largest gold mine.

Zimbabwe-focused Caledonia’s debt issuance is the biggest international capital raising in over a decade for the country, which had been shunned by global investors due to economic and policy volatility.

Spot gold prices surged to more than $4,800 per ounce on Wednesday, driven by investors seeking havens who are backing miners like Caledonia to lift output.

In a statement, Caledonia – which operates the 80,000-ounce-per-year Blanket mine in Zimbabwe – said demand for the offering from US institutional investors exceeded $600 million.

“Receiving more than $600 million of demand from high-quality North American investors is a tremendous endorsement of our strategy, the quality of our assets, our operational track record and the long-term prospects of the company,” Caledonia CEO Mark Learmonth said.

Caledonia said the bond issue is part of a broader strategy it is pursuing to fund Bilboes, which is expected to start production in late 2028. The mine is expected to reach annual output of 200,000 ounces from 2029 for an initial period of 10 years.

The company is also arranging a $150 million funding facility with a consortium of Zimbabwean and South African banks and will also engage regional and global lenders for Bilboes financing.

The Bilboes project has an expected total cost of $584 million and peak funding requirements of $484 million.

Zimbabwe’s gold output plunged to 3 metric tons during the height of its economic and political crisis in 2008. It has more than doubled production over the past decade to an all-time high of 47 metric tons in 2025.

(By Chris Takudzwa Muronzi; Editing by Nelson Banya and Thomas Derpinghaus)

Russia gains $216 billion in gold rally, replacing lost assets

Bloomberg News | January 20, 2026 

Stock image.

Russia has reaped a windfall from a surge in gold prices since the start of its war in Ukraine, generating gains on a scale comparable to the sovereign reserves frozen in Europe over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

The value of the Bank of Russia’s gold holdings has increased by more than $216 billion since February 2022, according to Bloomberg calculations. At the same time, the central bank has largely refrained from both major purchases of the metal and using its gold reserves during that period, despite the loss of access to foreign securities and currencies blocked under sanctions.

In December, European Union countries approved extending a freeze on around €210 billion ($244 billion) of Russian sovereign assets held in the bloc.

The increase in the value of bullion restores most of Russia’s lost financial capacity, even if it doesn’t return the blocked reserves. While securities and cash immobilized in Europe cannot be sold or pledged, gold can still be monetized if needed.

Russia, the world’s second-largest gold producer, mines more than 300 tons of the metal a year. Since 2022, however, Russian bullion has been shut out of Western markets and is no longer accepted by the London Bullion Market Association, effectively barring it from the world’s biggest over-the-counter gold-trading hub. That complicates any potential large-scale sales by the central bank to Asian buyers, where it would also face competition from newly mined gold produced by sanctioned Russian producers that cannot currently be sold elsewhere.

Gold prices have rallied sharply over the past four years, supported by strong demand from central banks, persistent inflation concerns, heightened geopolitical risks and investors seeking safe havens from uncertainty caused by trade wars.

In 2025, gold gained around 65%, its strongest annual performance since 1979. This has significantly lifted the valuation of official holdings worldwide even without additional purchases.

Russia’s international reserves reached $755 billion at the end of last year, including $326.5 billion held in gold, according to central bank data published on Friday. Gold prices have risen by more than 8% since then, surpassing $4,700 per ounce.

The Finance Ministry expects gold prices to keep climbing over the long term to $5,000 an ounce and higher. The current rally reflects a loss of confidence in global reserve currencies, while attempts to expropriate Russian assets are only increasing demand, Deputy Finance Minister Aleksey Moiseev said in an interview with RBC in late December.

The Bank of Russia only began drawing on its bullion toward the end of last year, with holdings falling by 0.2 million troy ounces to 74.8 million troy ounces. The decline reflected operations linked to the Finance Ministry’s sales of National Wellbeing Fund assets to finance the budget deficit.

From February 2022 through December 2025, the value of the country’s gold reserves more than doubled, while reserves held in foreign assets and currencies declined by about 14%, Bank of Russia data show. Gold accounted for 43% of total reserves compared with only 21% before the war.

Russia has stopped disclosing detailed information on its foreign currency reserves since the start of the war. As of Jan. 1, foreign currency and other non-gold assets totaled $399 billion, according to the data.

Russia’s Finance Ministry said in 2022 that roughly $300 billion of its overseas sovereign assets had been immobilized abroad.

The fate of those funds is poised to remain a subject of negotiation as talks over a potential peace settlement of the war in Ukraine continue under US leadership. EU countries have debated ways to use frozen Russian assets to provide a loan to Ukraine, but efforts to reach an agreement ultimately failed.

The Bank of Russia in response filed a lawsuit in Moscow seeking 18.2 trillion rubles ($227 billion) from Euroclear. Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the central bank doesn’t intend to drop its claim and is considering legal action in international courts.

Gold price extends record run, with $4,900 in sight

Staff Writer | January 21, 2026 

Stock image.

Gold extended its record rally to almost $4,900 per ounce on Wednesday, as geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and a meltdown in Japanese government debt kept safe-haven demand elevated.

Spot gold spiked as much as 2% to a record $4,887.19 per ounce before paring some gains. This marks the first time ever that gold has crossed the $4,800 threshold, and it comes a day after prices first broke past the $4,700-an-ounce level.

Gold is coming off its best annual performance since 1979, as mounting geopolitical risks and a global shift away from fiat currencies lifted the metal’s appeal, driving prices to record highs on more than 50 occasions through 2025 and into the new year.

This record-breaking rally in gold, which has risen by 75% over the past 12 months, reignited in recent days amid growing tensions between the US and its NATO allies. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on eight European nations that opposed his plan to take over Greenland, raising the specter of a damaging trade war.

Meanwhile, a meltdown in Japanese sovereign debt spilt over into bond markets worldwide earlier this week, with long-dated Treasuries and the dollar both tumbling. As well as sparking fears of the repatriation of capital to the East Asian nation as yields rise, the ructions highlighted worries about the fiscal situations of major economies that fueled the so-called “debasement trade”, where investors avoid currencies and government bonds.

The situation in Japan is spurring “fear of market-led debasement in the rest of the world,” Daniel Ghali, a senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a note. “Gold’s rally is about trust. For now, trust has bent, but hasn’t broken. If it breaks, momentum will persist for longer.”

Gold is poised for more support from the world’s biggest reported buyer, the National Bank of Poland. The central bank approved plans to purchase another 150 tons, while Bolivia’s central bank has resumed purchases for its foreign reserves under new regulations enacted in December 2025.

“Gold remains our highest conviction,” Daan Struyven, co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group, said at a media briefing on Wednesday, citing continued purchases by central banks. He reiterated the bank’s base case scenario is for gold to climb to $4,900 an ounce, with risks to the upside.

Silver down

Meanwhile, silver retreated by over 1% after notching its all-time best $95.89 per ounce during the Tuesday session. The metal has benefitted from the gold trade and performed even better during 2025, recording a gain of 140% for the year.

As with gold, analysts remain bullish on the white metal in 2026. “Silver’s rise to a three-digit number is looking quite possible given the price momentum we are seeing, but it will not be a one-way move. There could be some correction in prices and volatility can be higher,” ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari said on Wednesday.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)

Gold, silver premiums in India surge on import duty hike bets

India is the world’s second-largest consumer of gold and the largest consumer of silver. 

Reuters | January 21, 2026 

Stock image.

Gold premiums in India surged past $100 an ounce on Wednesday for the first time in more than a decade, with silver premiums at a record high, as traders priced in possible curbs on precious metals imports to shore up the rupee.

Bullion dealers charged a premium of up to $112 per ounce over official domestic gold prices – inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies – the highest since May 2014. Last week, dealers offered a discount of up to $12.

Silver premiums surged to $8 per ounce, surpassing the previous peak of $5 scaled in October.

India is the world’s second-largest consumer of gold and the largest consumer of silver. The rupee slipped to a record low of 91.7425 against the US dollar on Wednesday.

“People are speculating that the government may raise import duties on gold and silver to curb imports in the budget,” said Chanda Venkatesh, managing director of Hyderabad-based bullion merchant CapsGold.

“Anticipating the hike, traders are charging premiums over record prices.”

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present the Union Budget for 2026/27 on February 1. She had slashed import duties on gold and silver to 6% from 15% in July 2024 to curb smuggling.

India meets most of its gold and silver demand through imports, which have surged in recent months, widening the trade deficit and putting pressure on the rupee.

Local gold prices soared to an all-time high of 158,339 rupees per 10 grams, while silver surged to a record 335,521 rupees per kilogram.

“Traders with short positions were squeezed as prices rose, forcing them to buy to close their positions,” said Prithviraj Kothari, president, India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

While jewellery demand is down, investment in coins, bars, and exchange-traded funds has surged, Kothari said.

“Supply hasn’t kept up. This shortage is causing sellers to charge higher premiums,” said Chirag Thakkar, chief executive of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a leading importer.

The industry is concerned that the government may take steps to restrict bank funding currently used by jewellers for gold and silver imports, a move that is also lifting premiums on both metals, said Surendra Mehta, secretary, IBJA.

India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

(By Rajendra Jadhav and Aftab Ahmed; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)